Some new information regarding El Nino has been published by the International Research Institute (IRI).  The information indicates that according to computer models, El Nino will definitely kick in this summer.  Also, the chart below indicates that a moderate El Nino could exist by the end of summer…the peak of hurricane season.  On the bottom of the chart, there are groups of 3 months.  For instance, ASO means August-September-October.  The vertical shows the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly or distance from the average.  I know..this is getting a little technical.  Basically, most of the computer models show that El Nino will strengthen during the next several months.  The dynamical models (the ones with the squares) use the below-sea-surface data to arrive at their solutions, and are probably more accurate.  Bottom line….El Nino is kicking in and will strengthen through the summer.

El Nino, if you remember, is the warming of the East Pacific waters around the equator. 
This warming effects weather patterns around the globe, including over New England and the Atlantic Ocean.   Below are maps of the Pacific Ocean from NOAA.   The bottom map is the one which should interest you the most….the anomalies.  That peachy color off the coast of South America (right side of map) indicates above normal temps in the East Pacific.  El Nino has begun.

It’s important to track these slight temperature changes (which are actually large) because El Nino can impact the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic.  El Nino can prohibit hurricane growth.   The upper-level winds, which develop over the Atlantic during an El Nino, can blow the tops off developing tropical storms/hurricanes….stopping their ability to grow.

If those NOAA scientists are correct, we could be seeing an early end to hurricane season.  However, nothing is carved in stone.  El Nino may not strengthen to forecast levels and those upper-level winds may not knock down those developing hurricanes.  Obviously a constant monitoring of the tropics is necessary through the summer and fall.  That’s what we’re here for!

Hurricane season begins on Monday, and I’ll be conducting an online chat on Sunday evening to talk all about hurricanes.  Look for more information soon on wpri.com.