On this last day of August it felt more like early Autumn Today with cool temperatures and very low humidity. Cool Canadian high pressure will build in over the next several days, keeping storms, heat and humidity away. Infact most of this week looks dry. Despite cooler than normal temps this week…it does not mean we are done with summer..but for now, we don’t see any heat or high humidity this week.

On this date in weather history, hurricane Carol struck southern New England. It was the last major storm (category 3) to hit us. Bob in 1991 and Gloria in 1985 were not category 3 storms. Speaking of the tropics, we are watching an area in the far Atlantic that has potential to be the next named storm..Erika. The weather pattern this summer continues to be more conducive for tropical storms and hurricanes to make a run at or just off the east coast of the United States. We will watch to see what Erika (which has not formed yet) does by Labor Day weekend.

Tony Petrarca

Here is the link to the National Weather Service….some reports of minor wind damage and flooding..

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?
site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR

Here is another link for rainfall Totals recorded today:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

Tony Petrarca

Here is the latest on Danny as of 12:43 AM Saturday….storm is still disorganized as a “tropical storm”….but its structure in reality is only part tropical. As it continues to move away for its original , which was the tropics, it will transform itself into what we call an “extra-tropical cyclone”..(I know, too many fancy words)…..Bottom line it is still going to produce some very heavy rainfall along with gusty winds. While most of the computer models we use are from Weather Services across the world, we do run and maintain our own “in house” computer call “microcast”. It continues to hint at wind gusts of 30-50 mph Saturday. The higher gusts would be reserved for the coast..especially out towards the Cape and Islands. The same model along with the other models suggests 3-5” rainfall. That is why the Flood Watch is in effect. Poor drainage flooding is likely in some neighborhoods streets. We will need to monitor small streams and rivers like the Pawtuxet River. Also a high surf advisory is in effect now thru Sunday along with rip currents. Today is not a nice beach day obviously, but Sunday will be brighter….however surf and rips will continue on Sunday. Again Danny Is not expected to be a hurricane…..

Check back with us thru out the day for updates….our weather phone is 401-438-2900….you can also find updates on our exclusive 24 hours local cable weather station on Cox digital channel 125. Time for me to go to bed….it’s been a long day.

Tony Petrarca

Danny expected pass by on Saturday with heavy rain and some gusty winds. The storm is not anticipated to become a hurricane. The exact track will dictate the amounts and locations of both rain and wind. At this point it looks like 3-5” of rain with wind gusts of about 30-50 mph…Inland winds will gust to 30-40 mph Any 50 mph gusts would be reserved for the coastal waters from Block Island to Nantucket and the Cape. A flood watch (due to rain, not ocean) is in effect Saturday….streams and rivers will need to be monitored.

Tony Petrarca

As of 11pm Thursday we still have a very weak and disorganized Tropical Storm Danny with winds of only 45mph. The good news..he is not expected to become a major hurricane, so we are not looking at a 1938 storm or a 1954 hurricane Carol kind of situation. Even it’s ability to become a minimal hurricane is diminishing. However some slow re-strengthening is forecasted in 24 to 48 hours with Danny becoming a stronger Tropical Storm by Friday Night into Saturday, Keep in mind, tropical storms have winds that range from 39 mph on the low end to 73 mph on the high end. Hurricanes have winds of 74 mph or higher. Again, at this point, hurricane force winds are not expected.

Where will Danny go…??? Our computers are closing in a on a track some where between Block Island and Cape Cod Saturday evening. However the rain will move in well in advance…as early as Friday Night. The exact track will determine the amount of rain and wind and its location. 3-5 inches of rain possible from late Friday Night into Saturday. At this point the best chances for at least Tropical Storm force wind gusts would be extreme southeast Mass (mostly the outer Cape and Nantucket). Infact it looks like more of a rain impact with the bulk of the wind staying offshore.

New computer data on Friday will give us a better handle on the rain/ wind distribution. It should be noted that some computer projections have the storm going well out to sea…at this point we are discounting that scenario….In summary a hit from a major hurricane is unlikely…nonetheless heavy rain will be the main impact here with wind not as much of a concern except for offshore coastal waters

Tony Petrarca

All eyes on what is a very weak and disorganized Tropical Storm Danny with winds of only 50 mph. The good news..he is not expected to become a major hurricane, so we are not looking at a 1938 storm or a 1954 hurricane Carol kind of situation. However some strengthening is forecasted in 24 to 48 hours with Danny becoming a strong Tropical Storm. Keep in mind tropical storms have winds that range from 39 mph on the low end to 73 mph on the high end. There is a small chance that it could reach minimal Category 1 hurricane strength. Category 1 storms have of winds between 74 and 95 mph.

Where will Danny go…??? Our computers are closing in a on a track some where between Block Island and Cape Cod Saturday evening. However the rain will move in well in advance…as early as Friday Night. The exact track will determine the amount of rain and wind and its location. 3-5 inches of rain possible from late Friday Night into Saturday. At this point the best chances for at least Tropical Storm force wind gusts would be Southeast Mass (especially the outer Cape and Nantucket). A shift of only 100-200 miles west would put the Providence Metro area and the south coast of RI in those stronger winds. Considering the storm is almost 1000 miles away you want to check back with us to see how this all plays out.

What should you do..?? Well, check back with us often. Be prepared to secure loose object and yard furniture if the track shifts further west than expected. Boat owners may need to double up lines. New computer data on Friday will give us a better handle on the rain/ wind distribution. It should be noted that some computer runs have the storm going well out to sea…at this point we are discounting that scenario….I will have another blog update but probably wont get posted till 1230am. Busy night for me. Getting ready to do a live web chat on wpri.com

Tony Petrarca

1100 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

…CENTER OF DANNY WOBBLES WESTWARD…

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

AT 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT
320 MILES…510 KM…NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 550 MILES…
885 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH…20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY…WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH…95 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES…335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…27.5N 73.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

1100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

…DANNY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE…BUT STILL DISORGANIZED…

DANNY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN AND WIND ON SATURDAY….THE MAGNITUE OF WIND AND RAIN WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, SO YOU ARE URGED TO CHECK BACK WITH WITH US NOW THRU FRIDAY
You can check our interactive hurricane tracker at the link below:
http://www.wpri.com/subindex/weather/severe_weather

1100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

…DANNY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE…BUT STILL DISORGANIZED…

DANNY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN AND WIND ON SATURDAY….THE MAGNITUE OF WIND AND RAIN WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, SO YOU ARE URGED TO CHECK BACK WITH WITH US NOW THRU FRIDAY

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

AT 1100 PM EDT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT 370
MILES…595 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 675 MILES…1090
KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280
KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…26.0N 71.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

DANNY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN AND WIND ON SATURDAY….THE MAGNITUE OF WIND AND RAIN WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, SO YOU ARE URGED TO CHECK BACK WITH WITH US NOW THRU FRIDAY
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

…DANNY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE…BUT STILL DISORGANIZED…

DANNY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN AND WIND ON SATURDAY….THE MAGNITUE OF WIND AND RAIN WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, SO YOU ARE URGED TO CHECK BACK WITH WITH US NOW THRU FRIDAY

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

AT 1100 PM EDT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT 370
MILES…595 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 675 MILES…1090
KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280
KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…26.0N 71.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

DANNY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN AND WIND ON SATURDAY….THE MAGNITUE OF WIND AND RAIN WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, SO YOU ARE URGED TO CHECK BACK WITH WITH US NOW THRU FRIDAY

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANNY.

AT 1100 PM EDT…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST OR ABOUT 370
MILES…595 KM…EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 675 MILES…1090
KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…280
KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS
1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

…SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT INFORMATION…
LOCATION…26.0N 71.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB

DANNY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN AND WIND ON SATURDAY….THE MAGNITUE OF WIND AND RAIN WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH. STILL A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES, SO YOU ARE URGED TO CHECK BACK WITH WITH US NOW THRU FRIDAY

Tropical storm Danny has formed in the southwest Atlantic. At this point the storm is weak and very disorganized with tops winds of only 45 mph. Over the next 24-48 hours slow strengthening is expected to put Danny as a Category 1 hurricane off the North Carolina coast by Friday Night. A storm in this position is normally a concern for us here in New England. The storm at that point will head north and then eventually north-northeast. It remains to be seen if it makes landfall or curls out to sea last minute much like what Bill did last week. Right now it looks as though Danny would track a bit closer to our coast so we have wind and rain in the forecast for Saturday. The magnitude if the wind and rain will be determined by the exact track and strength of the storm. National Hurricane Center has the storm tracking about 50 miles of the coast of Nantucket…however that is a 72 hour forecast so there is a margin of error or uncertainty this far out….please check back frequently.

Tony Petrarca

I am still watching this system in the southwest Atlantic with the concern that it develops into our next tropical storm and possibly a hurricane. If so it will be called Danny. I think it has a good shot of developing next 24 hours..then heading off the Carolina coastline by Thursday and Friday. Of course a storm in that position becomes a concern to everyone from Cape Hatteras all the way up to Cape Cod. The storm looks to track up the east coast, but closer to the coastline than hurricane Bill. It’s still early in the game as far as strength, location and track…however the jet stream patter across North America favors this to track close enough to perhaps be a “player” in our weather around the late Friday Night/Saturday time frame. Keep in mind, as of this writing, it is not even a named storm. so a lot has to happen to get from point A to Point B in the next 72 to 96 hours.
You know the drill by now…stay tuned next several days to see how this all pans out

Tony Petrarca 08-26-09 12:33am