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By Ted Nesi

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – A whopping 125,000 Rhode Islanders will switch congressional districts next year despite a population shift of just 7,200 if the state’s redistricting commission approves a new map unveiled Monday to the dismay of Congressman Jim Langevin and local Republicans.

“It’s a big switch,” said Kimball Brace, president of Election Data Services, the firm getting paid nearly $700,000 by taxpayers to redraw Rhode Island’s political boundaries. The changes are being made to bolster the representation of the state’s burgeoning Hispanic population, he said.

Moving Smithfield, North Smithfield and Burrillville out of Congressman David Cicilline’s district – three towns he lost by nearly 3,000 votes in 2010 – would bolster the endangered first-term Democrat’s 2012 reelection chances, said Joe Fleming, WPRI 12′s political analyst.

“In a close election it could be the difference” between victory and defeat for Cicilline, Fleming said. “It’s still possible for a Republican to win depending on how high David Cicilline’s negatives are next year. … There’s a lot to come into play, but the redistricting does help David Cicilline, there’s no question.”

Outside group offered guidance

Cicilline’s campaign staff worked with the National Committee for an Effective Congress in Washington earlier this year to crunch voter data down to the precinct level, according to emails reviewed by WPRI.com. Langevin’s staff also asked the organization to run scenarios.

An aide to Langevin, a former secretary of state, told WPRI.com his staff resisted efforts by Cicilline’s to propose significantly bigger changes to the districts than those suggested in their October joint letter, which argued the changes should be limited to Providence.

“In recent days they got together to try to come up with something that was more acceptable than these totally dramatic changes, and obviously that’s not how it came out,” the aide said. Cicilline is close to House Speaker Gordon Fox, a fellow Providence Democrat whose chief of staff reportedly played a key role in the process.

Cicilline’s office didn’t comment on the specifics of the new map, which is less sweeping than others floated that would have moved his opponents out of the 1st District. Cicilline spokeswoman Raymonde Charles said he “has complete faith” in the panel and “has said all along he trusts that the commission would put the best map forward and that he would defer to their expertise.”

“David is happy to have the honor of representing Rhode Islanders wherever the lines are drawn,” she said. Cicilline and Langevin could be pitted against each other in 2022 if Rhode Island loses a congressional seat after the next Census.

The new map, which is likely to be approved by the commission next Monday, moves 58,989 voters from Cicilline’s 1st District into Langevin’s 2nd District and 66,223 from the 2nd into the 1st, Brace said. The share of Providence’s population in Cicilline’s district will jump from about 40% to 71%, he said.

Mike Napolitano, a spokesman for Republican John Loughlin, said the new map was more of the same. “Most of the Congressional redistricting maps that have been proposed appear to be an attempt to save Congressman David Cicilline,” he said. “His approval numbers are extremely low and the voters will not be fooled by this tactic.”

‘Now more heavily Democratic’

Cicilline beat Loughlin in 2010 by 9,727 votes out of 160,569 cast. Fleming said the addition of South Providence and the jettisoning of three Republican-leaning northern communities could swing another 6,000 votes in Cicilline’s favor.

“The 1st District, which was heavily Democratic anyway, is now more heavily Democratic,” Fleming said. “You’re taking out areas that had more independent voters and adding areas that have more Democratic voters.” He added: “Redistricting is a political process.”

Republicans Doherty and Loughlin would still have a shot at beating Cicilline if this map is approved, Fleming said. “They are still going to be viable candidates – it’s just going to make it harder for them to win the race,” he said. “It doesn’t mean they can’t win.”

In the 2nd District, Langevin defeated his Republican opponent in 2010 by 49,033 votes out of 174,435 cast. The sixth-term incumbent won’t be vulnerable in 2012 despite the proposed changes, Fleming said.

“It doesn’t put Jim Langevin in play,” he said. “He’s won very comfortably. His jobs ratings are decent. He has no one out there already looking to take him on in the sense that they can raise a great deal of money or have a lot of name recognition, at this point.”

Although the commissioners are slated to approve the final maps Monday, Brace said he may not be able to give them all the data the state has requested about the new maps before they vote. The General Assembly and Gov. Lincoln Chafee will have the final say on the boundary changes next year.

Brace began working with Rhode Island on its decennial redistricting after the 1980 U.S. Census. He said the General Assembly usually makes minor changes to the maps approved by the redistricting commission, though he could not recall any specific alterations done in the past.

Ted Nesi ( tnesi@wpri.com ) covers politics and the economy for WPRI.com and writes the Nesi’s Notes blog. Follow him on Twitter: @tednesi

Update: Common Cause calls on RI to halt heated redistricting process (Dec. 13)