Odds of a double-dip recession in RI fall sharply, Moody’s saysDecember 29th, 2011 at 2:58 pm by Ted Nesi under Nesi's Notes, On the Main Site
The chances of Rhode Island’s economy falling back into recession in the first half of 2012 have dropped sharply but remain much higher than in other states, according to the latest numbers from Moody’s Economy.com.
The firm’s analysts put the odds of a double-dip recession in Rhode Island at 49% as of December, a big decrease from the 59% probability they projected in November.
The only states more at risk of recession as of December are Connecticut (70%) and Wyoming (54%), according to Moody’s. Massachusetts has a 44% likelihood of a double-dip, and the odds for the U.S. economy as a whole are 34%. The least likely place to have another recession is Washington, D.C., at just 5%.
Moody’s updated its Risk of Recession Index on Dec. 19, the same day the firm’s credit analysts released a report on local pension plans in Rhode Island that cited the 59% probability of a double-dip in the state as of November.
The index uses eight economic metrics to offer “a leading indicator of a region’s economic performance,” Moody’s says. “Turning points in the probabilities suggest a slowing or acceleration in a region’s economy activity.”