By Ted Nesi

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Patrick Lynch is out of office for now, but he may not be out of politics for good.

Rhode Island’s former attorney general has recently been discussing whether to challenge Congressman David Cicilline in this year’s Democratic primary but is unlikely to run at this point, WPRI.com has learned.

Lynch sat down with one consultant to discuss the race last week, and local Democratic Party insiders have been buzzing about his potential candidacy, four people familiar with the matter said Tuesday.

But Lynch is unlikely to pull the trigger and step away from his lucrative new private consulting firm and law practice to mount a campaign against the incumbent, said two of the people, who have direct knowledge of the discussions.

Lynch did not return a phone message seeking comment. His decision to skip the race raises the likelihood Cicilline will face a one-on-one primary against businessman Anthony Gemma in September.

‘Instantly formidable’ if he ran

Lynch would be “instantly formidable because of his war chest and his name recognition,” another one of the people told WPRI.com. “He just leapfrogs to the front of the pack, in my opinion. And plus, he doesn’t have the baggage that David [Cicilline] has.”

Lynch served two terms as attorney general but bowed out of the Democratic primary for governor in July 2010 and backed the party’s nominee, former Treasurer Frank Caprio. His brother Bill Lynch finished last in the four-man Democratic congressional primary won by Cicilline last year.

Patrick Lynch had $348,535 in his campaign war chest as of Sept. 30, second-most among local politicians after Treasurer Gina Raimondo’s $513,584, R.I. Board of Elections records show. Lynch could ask supporters to sign a form allowing him to transfer their contributions into a federal campaign account if he were to run for federal office, a step Cicilline took in 2010.

Lynch’s own poll numbers were relatively weak toward the end of his tenure as attorney general. His job approval rating was 39% in a Brown University survey conducted in July 2010, the month he dropped out of the race for governor. Caprio’s job approval as treasurer was 51% at the time.

Lynch and Doherty old friends

Cicilline has managed to keep the state’s Democratic establishment behind him despite his weak poll numbers. Former BankRI CEO Merrill Sherman considered challenging him but decided against it. The candidates who came in second and third to Cicilline in last year’s primary – Gemma and David Segal – are also mulling a rematch.

Gemma told WPRI.com on Tuesday he is “95% sure” he will challenge Cicilline in the Democratic primary and has been holding meetings with his campaign team to prepare. He said he expects to make a decision by the close of the first quarter, which ends March 31. Segal did not respond to an email requesting comment.

Another factor that may influence Lynch’s decision on the congressional race is his close relationship with Brendan Doherty, the former state police colonel who is seeking the Republican nomination against Cicilline. Doherty and Lynch share the same campaign accountant, Galvin & Associates of Providence.

Still, one veteran Providence Democrat was incredulous when he learned Lynch is unlikely to challenge Cicilline. “He’s crazy,” the person said. “He could win that seat.”

Ted Nesi ( tnesi@wpri.com ) covers politics and the economy for WPRI.com and writes the Nesi’s Notes blog. Follow him on Twitter: @tednesi

• Related: Doherty raised more than $150K in 4Q; finished ’11 with nearly $500K (Jan. 3)