Congressman David Cicilline is likely to hold onto his seat in November but faces more risk of losing than his colleague Jim Langevin, according to new House race rankings released Thursday by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Cicilline’s 1st Congressional District is among 94 U.S. House seats out of 435 rated as potentially competitive for the opposition party by the organization, whose director is the prominent political prognosticator Larry Sabato.

Cicilline’s seat is ranked as “likely Democratic,” which “effectively means that we are watching this race,” Kyle Kondik’s the center’s House editor, wrote in an analysis. Cicilline is being challenged by Republican Brendan Doherty, former superintendent of the state police, and may face a primary from businessman Anthony Gemma.

Langevin’s 2nd District is rated as “safe Democratic,” one of 341 seats where Republicans (189) or Democrats (152) face no risk of losing. In Massachusetts, the new 4th District seat being vacated by Barney Frank and sought by Joe Kennedy III is also rated “safe Democratic,” as is Congressman William Keating’s 9th District seat.

For Democrats to win 25 House seats and retake the House, “President Obama will need to win next year, and that probably won’t be enough,” Kondik wrote. ”What Democrats really need is a poisonous, damaged Republican nominee who not only loses to Obama but causes harm down the ticket.”

• Related: Forecast: Obama likely to win again in Rhode Island, Mass. (April 22)