I’ve been pouring over lots of weather data this morning, and the theme remains the same… that conditions should be ripe later today for a potentially significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms in the northeast and New England.  In fact, it’s fairly rare to have the Storm Prediction Center post a “moderate risk of severe thunderstorms ” for western New England, with RI/SE MA in a high end “slight risk”.  The main threats from any storms that develop continue to be damaging winds, large hail and flooding rains.  Here are some of the maps from the Storm Prediction Center’s latest update this morning.

It’s a tricky forecast… One of the biggest questions will be how much sun we see today.  There are quite a few clouds overhead this morning, which will limit the heating of the atmosphere and therefore, the instability.  However, if we break into partial hazy sun (as expected) then that will fuel the development of more widespread severe thunderstorms.

In the short term–we’re looking at a few showers this morning with the passage of a warm front.  The activity is not expected to be severe… just your average summer showers with an isolated rumble of thunder.  Most of the afternoon may end up rain-free… with some time to hit the beach or pool.  We’ll be on heightened alert for any developing storms late this afternoon… but the timing in our area will be after 5-6pm, and even more likely after 8pm.

What to Watch For This Evening/Tonight