Cicilline gets good news: ahead in polls, race now ‘Leans Dem’

September 20th, 2012 at 9:52 am by under Nesi's Notes, On the Main Site

David Cicilline is having a pretty good week.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has released two polls since last Tuesday’s primary showing the congressman ahead of Republican Brendan Doherty. Cicilline’s campaign followed up Thursday with a survey from his longtime pollster The Feldman Group giving him a 10-point edge, with Cicilline at 46%, Doherty at 36%, independent David Vogel at 7% and 11% undecided.

All three of the polls were commissioned by Cicilline or his party and in each case the full results were withheld; Republicans haven’t released any internal polling of their own to counter the Democrats.

Cicilline is also getting a boost from a neutral analyst: his chances of keeping his seat were upgraded Thursday by the Sabato Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, whose director is the prominent political prognosticator Larry Sabato.

The 1st District was moved from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic” after just two months. “While he’s not well-liked because of his time as mayor of Providence, Democrats – especially in much of New England – appear to be strongly coalescing around their president and their party,” writes Kyle Kondik, the center’s U.S. House editor. “That should be enough to get Cicilline across the finish line, so we’re moving him to leans Democratic.”

Voters in Rhode Island’s redrawn 1st Congressional District voted 67% for Barack Obama and only 32% for John McCain in 2008, according to data compiled by Daily Kos Elections. The Cook Political Report rates Cicilline’s seat a toss-up and Stuart Rothenberg rated it “Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat” in May.

Doherty’s campaign has dismissed the various Democratic polls, noting Cicilline still isn’t winning half of voters even in his own surveys. “The fact that Cicilline can’t win 50% of the vote under those circumstances in an overwhelmingly Democratic district shows just how little people trust him,” campaign manager Ian Prior said in a statement Wednesday.

The Cicilline-commissioned Feldman Group poll was conducted Sept. 13 and 15-17 and surveyed 500 voters “who participated in the 2008 or 2010 general elections, or who had registered since that time” and are likely to vote in November. No margin of error was provided. The sample was 47% Democrats, 9% Republicans and 44% unaffiliated; Feldman said it surveyed the head-to-head matchup before providing more information.

• Related: Doherty campaign dismisses 2 Dem polls with Cicilline ahead (Sept. 19)

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4 Responses to “Cicilline gets good news: ahead in polls, race now ‘Leans Dem’”

  1. Ed says:

    Why is this considered news? Everyone knows little David the crook will win. Rhode Islanders love criminals, just look at Buddy Cianci. He had 22 years in office 4 years in jail and now is on the radio and TV doing news.

  2. [...] Providence JournalAfter state primaries, races heat up in the Ocean StateThe Brown Daily HeraldWPRI-TV 12 (blog) -National Journal (blog)all 6 news [...]

  3. bunchoffools says:

    Of course he is going to get elected. You could put Vladamir Putin on the ballot as a Democrat and Rhode Islanders would vote for him for no other reason than he is a democrat. You could divide the population of the state into idiots that actually believe voting Democrat no matter what is in their best interests and the crooks who actually do profit from having a corrupt one party state run by democrats.
    I realize this particular corrupt democrat is running for us congress and not a state office, but the reason that people will vote for him is the same. They are idiots raised by idiots to never consider a thing other than what party the Politian is from.
    This state will never move forward. The best it can hope for is to ride the coat tails of the rest of the country and maybe the region after others have taken steps to help themselves. Rhode Islanders will continue to look for ways to get something for nothing or wait for someone else to give them a handout.
    Too many people that benefit from the status quo hold the power and in a small state like this it is very hard to nearly impossible to build a counter weight to that power.
    So Rhode Island will forever be a welfare state that will only raise taxes on a constantly dwindling tax base until it finally implodes on itself. Hopefully sooner than later.

    1. Ed says:

      I concur Democracy is the road to socialism. Karl Marx