The Saturday Morning Post: Quick hits on politics & more in RI

September 22nd, 2012 at 5:00 am by under Nesi's Notes, On the Main Site, The Saturday Morning Post

Welcome to another edition of my weekend column – as always, send along your takes, tips and trial balloons to tnesi@wpri.com.

1. With the presidential race dominating the headlines and Mitt Romney stumbling, the challenge facing Brendan Doherty to win in a presidential year is becoming starker. As Ian Donnis wrote recently, Doherty’s strategy relies on separating himself from national Republicans, which isn’t easy when they’re front and center on the evening news. Doherty supporters can point to 1988, when the 1st District simultaneously backed a Democratic presidential nominee (Mike Dukakis) and a moderate Republican (Ron Machtley) to replace a tarnished Democratic congressman (Freddie St Germain). But Rhode Island has gotten much bluer over the intervening 24 years: Barack Obama won the state by nearly 27 points in 2008, more than doubling Dukakis’s 11-point margin. Moreover, Machtley wasn’t as isolated as Doherty – voters in 1988 reelected Republican U.S. Sen. John Chafee by nine points; current Republican candidate Barry Hinckley is only a long shot. (Indeed, hard as it is to believe, three-fourths of Rhode Island’s delegation were Republicans during the 101st Congress of 1989-90: Chafee, Machtley and Claudine Schneider.) For Doherty to win, he needs a sizable chunk of voters to mark their ballots for Obama and Whitehouse, then switch parties and choose him – how many will?

2. As part of a riff on higher ed, Matt Yglesias made this point regarding Bay State governors: “Indeed, neither [Deval] Patrick nor Romney was born in Massachusetts. Rather, like many of the state’s most successful individuals they moved to the Bay State from elsewhere to go to Harvard and then stuck around.” As it happens, the last two governors of Rhode Island also went to the local Ivy; Lincoln Chafee and Don Carcieri both graduated from Brown University. The difference? Unlike Patrick and Romney, Chafee and Carcieri didn’t migrate from out of state; they were born here and stuck around for college. Rhode Island actually hasn’t elected a governor born elsewhere since William Henry Vanderbilt III won in 1938 (also the last year Republicans won control of the General Assembly). Brown is undoubtedly a magnet that attracts smart people to Rhode Island. But do they stay to make their mark as reliably as Harvard graduates do in Massachusetts?

3. Did you know Jim Langevin spoke in prime time on Tuesday night during the 2004 Democratic National Convention – just before Barack Obama delivered the speech that put him on the path to the presidency? CSPAN has the evidence.

4. Cook Political Report editor and Rhode Island native Jennifer Duffy is somewhat skeptical about the Benenson Strategy Group’s new DCCC-commissioned 1st District poll, which gave David Cicilline a double-digit lead, despite her respect for the polling firm. First off, she’s surprised unknown independent David Vogel is polling 8%. Second, she thinks Democrats are overlooking that Cicilline is in “pretty dangerous territory” at 46% support – especially since undecideds usually break for the challenger (in this case, Doherty). “Finally, it is sometimes more telling what a pollster does not release,” Duffy told me – in this case, job ratings and favorable/unfavorable numbers. “If they had been strong, they would have released them.” That suggests Doherty’s favorability ratings are pretty good, which makes sense considering the general election just kicked off.

5. Keep your eye on Johnston Rep. Stephen Ucci, the deputy majority leader, who’s likely to raise his profile after last week’s primaries left House Democrats’ future leadership in flux. The 40-year-old was first elected in 2004 and works as a lawyer for Raytheon. Ucci has proposed, among other things, jailing state department chiefs who go over budget and cutting the state’s minimum corporate tax from $500 to $50. He’s running unopposed this year after raising more than $21,000 during the first quarter alone.

6. After Tim White finished his big interview with Don Carcieri last week, he had one more question for the former gov – what were his thoughts on last year’s pension changes, considering his own emphasis on the issue during his two terms? “I think it was very good,” Carcieri began. “As you know, I was working on that. We made changes over my eight years. They are all going to be challenged because the unions don’t like it and don’t want it.” He went on to recall his own major win on benefits. “We changed retiree health care. That was huge. We changed all the active health insurance with co-shares. When I came into office, state workers were paying nothing – nothing! – toward their co-share.” As for pensions, “I tried to get rid of the COLA and they wouldn’t go that far at that point. I think we were moving in that direction, and I credit Gina really with running with that ball. Now, she got the Retirement Board to lower the assumption. That created – the old saying is, you need a crisis to make changes – that’s what created it.” Channeling Paul Valletta, Tim quipped: “You sound like a union member.” Carcieri replied: “Well, she didn’t create it – and by the way, 7.5% is still too high. Clearly an 8.25% assumption was, it would seem in today’s world, unrealistic. Even 7.5% may still be too high.” He added: “I credit the legislature for making those changes.”

7. Speaking of Señor White, catch him this Sunday at noon on Rhode Island PBS’s “A Lively Experiment.”

8. Revenue Director Rose Gallogly wants to move fast in scheduling the special elections (primary and general) to replace Chuck Moreau as mayor of Central Falls – preferably to have it coincide with the presidential election. So far the names of three potential candidates are floating around: City Councilman James Diossa, former Police Chief Joe Moran and local political fixture Thomas Lazieh, who already served as mayor from 1990 to 1995 and also did turns as city councilman and city clerk. Anybody else out there?

9. If you like Nesi’s Notes, you’ll definitely like “After the Revolution,” which just opened at the Gamm Theatre in Pawtucket. The Amy Herzog play is a political tale set in 1999 as a lefty family grapples with new revelations about their beloved patriarch and his actions during the McCarthy era. The standout performances are those of Sam Babbitt and Wendy Overly, but the whole cast does a fine job – as did those behind the scenes, notably set designer Patrick Lynch and director Tony Estrella. The show runs through Oct. 14 – get tickets here.

10. Always interesting to see a transplanted Rhode Islander in the news: This time it’s Annette Nazareth, a Providence native and Brown University graduate who was a Democratic appointee to the Securities and Exchange Commission under George W. Bush. Bloomberg News published a long – and not particularly positive – profile of her earlier this month: “Top Bank Lawyer’s E-Mails Show Washington’s Inside Game.”

11. Some musical trivia: Did you know “Family Guy” creator and RISD alum Seth MacFarlane recorded an entire Sinatra-style big band album last year? It’s surprisingly good! And did you know Bob Dylan recorded a Christmas album in 2009? His take on “Must Be Santa” leaves me speechless.

12. Set your DVRs: This week on Newsmakers – the future of Central Falls with Revenue Director Rosemary Booth Gallogly and Ted Orson, the city’s bankruptcy attorney. Watch Sunday at 10 a.m. on Fox Providence. This week on Executive Suite – the case for casinos with Twin River’s John Taylor and Newport Grand’s Diane Hurley. Watch Sunday at 6 p.m. on myRITV (or 6 a.m. on Fox). See you back here next Saturday morning.

Ted Nesi ( tnesi@wpri.com ) covers politics and the economy for WPRI.com and writes the Nesi’s Notes blog. Follow him on Twitter: @tednesi

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6 Responses to “The Saturday Morning Post: Quick hits on politics & more in RI”

  1. Levon says:

    @#4 if you have a screwball like Chris Young polling those numbers.Anyone can.

  2. Future Former Rhode Islander says:

    Re: #4. I am not surprised by “unknown independent” David Vogel polling 8%. What’s a Democrat with a clue going to do? Vote for Cicilline and wait for the next scandal (while he collects his $175,000 pay)? Vote for Doherty and give the Republicans a leg up? Tough choice in the 1st makes an independent look like a way out of the dilemma.

  3. YRI says:

    Here is a revelation to Mr.Nesi and what passes for journalism. Rhode Island doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter in the Electoral College nor does it matter in the Congress. What passes for a political culture is on a par with a banana republic. It has no economy worth mentioning. It exports its youth and expects the rest of the USA to prop up its’ 1930s ideas of compassion. The only thing missing are the symbols recognizing it… a formal funeral oration, a change in the state emblem and signs to the turkey, and submission to an auctioning sale. As for Mr.Nesi’s “journalism”… it reads more and more like what one would find from press releases from the fifth rate political hacks running the state into the ground.

    1. Cosmo says:

      Good analysis YRI.

  4. [...] day is in serious trouble. Venerable political analyst Jennifer Duffy leaned on another old saw, telling WPRI-TV that voters who are still undecided, this late in the game, tend to break for the challenger. [...]

  5. [...] internal polls supposedly showing him ahead, but this is a winnable race for Doherty.  Via WPRI’s Ted Nesi: Cook Political Report editor and Rhode Island native Jennifer Duffy is somewhat skeptical about [...]