Silver: Obama on track to beat his RI blowout margin of 2008September 27th, 2012 at 2:31 pm by Ted Nesi under Nesi's Notes, On the Main Site
It’s hard to imagine Barack Obama doing better in Rhode Island this year than he did back in 2008, when the future president won 63% of the vote locally. Only his home state of Hawaii and nearby Vermont gave him a larger landslide four years ago.
Yet New York Times numbers guru Nate Silver says the president is on track to do just that.
Silver’s “now-cast” forecast model projects that if the election were held today Obama would beat Romney in Rhode Island by 29.7 percentage points, improving on his 27.8-point margin of victory over John McCain here in 2008. Only three states – Alaska, Arizona and Tennessee – are projected to shift in the president’s favor more than Rhode Island; they are among 14 states where Obama’s margin is currently projected to grow.
“There is an interesting split this year among the six New England states, with Mr. Obama running very well in [Vermont, Maine and Rhode Island], which are poorer, but not as well in Connecticut, New Hampshire and Massachusetts, where voters are better off,” Silver noted in his analysis.
Right now Silver’s Electoral College model gives Obama an 81.9% chance of winning on Nov. 6. He also sees “about a 20% chance that Mr. Romney will win, but also about a 20% chance that Mr. Obama will actually beat his 2008 margin in the popular vote.”
• Related: Silver: GOP may refocus on Whitehouse in push to win Senate (Sept. 18)
(photo: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP)