Sandy Impacts Our Weather, But How Severely?October 25th, 2012 at 8:30 am by Michelle Muscatello under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog
That’s the big question this morning…. we’re feeling more confident (70% chance) that we’ll see a period of unsettled weather from Sandy or it’s remnants… but how severe the impact is on our area will be determined by the eventual track, structure and timing of the storm. Our computer models are continuing to show the storm backing in towards the northeast US coastline by early next week—Monday or Tuesday. There are still discrepancies with how quickly the storm shifts direction…. in fact, looking at the computer models this morning… there appears two clusterings of forecast tracks. Some of our typically very reliable models bring Sandy, or it’s remnants into the mid-Atlantic/Delmarva coast… with another clustering of potential tracks into central/northern New England. Both solutions would bring rain and some wind into our area… but the extent of the rain/wind/coastal flood potential, etc… would be dependent on the track. Here’s a look at some of our computer models this morning:
The National Hurricane Center forecast path is the track in the middle… splitting the difference between the models’ paths. If the storm were to track over the Delmarva, it would spare our area the worst of the storm… but a track closer to us would mean a more significant impact.
Keep in mind that the “possible” impacts are not a guarantee at this point… but something we’ll be monitoring. A worst case scenario would be hurricane force wind gusts with downed trees and extensive power outages… heavy rain–leading to localized street/poor drainage flooding, but also possibly stream/river flooding… and for coastal residents, we’ll have to watch for coastal flooding and beach erosion. Which parts of the coastline will be most at risk will be dependent on the storm track and the subsequent wind direction based on the track. The best case scenario at this point would be a run-of-the-mill couple of rainy and blustery days.