Good Morning

Sandy now a  category 2 hurricane with winds of 110 mph..located about 85  miles SW of GUANTANAMO CUBA. Storm is moving north at 13 miles per hour.  Considering that any “potential” impacts from Sandy are still  96 hours away, there still exists some uncertainty on the future track. Even so, rain wind, larges waves, and coastal flooding exists, but the magnitude or severity is still in question.  One of our Global Forecast Models called the GFS  just came in.  You at least have to respect its day to day consistency with its forecast of keeping the storm out at sea. That’s not say this one model (of many) is correct, but it does deserve some weight in our forecasting process.  This model, to some degree plays a part in developing what we call a coastal front…a long narrow area of low pressure which extends outward from the departing Sandy as she moves offshore  (or should I say, if she moves out to sea). If this coastal front does infact set up, it would mean heavy rain Sunday and Monday, with the brunt of Sandy herself staying offshore….this in a nutshell is one possible scenario and it would be the less severe one. The wind field with Sandy will be large..in other words, covering a large area.. So even with a track out to sea, strong winds on the outer edge of storm would still affect at least coastal locations

But we cant ignore the overall weather pattern setting up across the east coast of the US and weather features that exist over the North Atlantic…all which will determine where Sandy goes. This pattern still has the ability to draw Sandy in closer to the our coast, just when it looks like she wants to make a run out to sea instead….the problem is that we may not know if this happens until we get to Thursday night or Friday…by then, most computer models should have a better handle on how things will evolve.  Keep in mind any potential  impacts from the storm will wait until Sunday Night/Monday.  So to lock onto one solution, when there are many is not the right way to go with our forecast process.  Still feel that in the end game, the storm will draw closer to the coast then what the GFS model is hinting at…how close,will determine if we get stormy weather that is “manageable” or something more serious….best advice is to follow forecast next few days.

Tony Petrarca…12:52 am Thursday Oct 25