Stage Is Set For Major StormOctober 27th, 2012 at 12:31 am by Tony Petrarca under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog
Good Morning….From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca
Data I have been looking at, along with latests computer models, continues to show our area getting hit hard…especially the coast line. Landfall will occur somewhere between New Jersey and Long Island/Block Island. Lets looks at 3 of the newest computer models that just came out…
The first is called the NAM model showing Sandy just south of New England at 2PM Monday with winds speeds along the coast sustained at 60 mph
Next model below, valid at same time 2PM Monday is the GFS. Sandy is located in about same location with winds of 60-70 mph sustained
Data courtesy of WeatherBell
The 3rd model below is called the RPM model…it shows Sandy a bit further south near southern New Jersey…but the envelope of wind is so large, that this model is producing 60 mph sustained winds at the the coast.
Bottom line, the window area of possible landfall, ranges from Block Island to southern New Jersey…the fact that winds will gust to hurricane force during the astronomical high tide cycle Monday evening, puts a high risk of serious coastal flooding to the south shore…The early call on forecast wind speeds would be 50-60 mph sustained on coast, with gusts to hurricane force, 70+mph. Inland winds will run 30-40 mph sustained with gusts of 50-60 mph. That magnitude is enough to knock down wires, poles, branches and trees. Rainfall estimates around 2-5″ from Monday thru Tuesday. There is a slight risk of brief water spouts and weak tornadoes Monday