Poll: Raimondo is favorite for gov; Chafee does best as a Dem

January 31st, 2013 at 9:22 am by under Nesi's Notes, On the Main Site

Democrat Gina Raimondo is the early favorite to win the 2014 governor’s race, according to a new poll released Thursday morning to WPRI.com.

The Public Policy Polling survey [pdf] shows Raimondo would win anywhere from 32% to 46% of the vote depending on which hypothetical opponents she faces. She is the only candidate to crack 40% support in any of 10 ballot tests conducted by PPP.

If Raimondo is out of the picture, however, there’s no clear frontrunner: the leading candidates in non-Raimondo scenarios shift between Republican Brendan Doherty, Republican Allan Fung and Democrat Angel Taveras depending on the match-up. Moderate Party founder Ken Block starts out with double-digit support in most scenarios, suggesting his presence could have a major impact on the outcome.

Independent Gov. Lincoln Chafee faces an unsurprisingly uphill battle to win a second term, with more than half of voters saying they don’t want him to run again. His strongest shot at re-election comes if he runs as a Democrat: running under the party banner, Chafee starts out trailing Republicans Doherty and Fung by just four points. Among voters who do want Chafee to run again, 20% say he should run as an independent and 18% say he should run as a Democrat.

The automated telephone survey of 614 Rhode Island voters was conducted Jan. 28 to 30 by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-affiliated firm in Raleigh, N.C., that was widely praised for its accuracy in last November’s election. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points overall and 5.5 points on questions that were asked only of 320 Democratic primary voters.

PPP will release a second round of results on Friday concerning federal questions, including U.S. Sen. Jack Reed’s standing ahead of his 2014 re-election bid.

In a Democratic gubernatorial primary that includes Chafee, Raimondo gets 35% support, followed by Chafee at 22%, Taveras at 19% and Almonte at 11%. Another 12% of Democratic primary voters are unsure. Raimondo and Taveras both benefit if Chafee doesn’t run in the primary, with Raimondo rising to 44% and Taveras rising to 35%.

The silver lining for Chafee: his job approval rating has inched up to 33%, compared with the 22% he scored a year ago, though 59% still disapprove of his performance. However, PPP said its polling shows he’s the second most unpopular governor in the country, behind only Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn.

“Lincoln Chafee is really in a hole,” PPP President Dena Debnam said in a statement. “He managed to win in 2010 because of a splintered field but even that wouldn’t put him across the finish line at this point.”

The other potential candidates for governor are viewed positively overall: Taveras is on top with a 63% favorable rating, followed by Raimondo at 57%, Fung at 55% and Doherty at 45%.

The poll results will cheer supporters of same-sex marriage: 57% of Rhode Island voters say gay nuptials should be allowed in the state, while only 36% say they should not. Only 13% of voters say there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple’s relationship, while 31% would prefer civil unions over marriage.

Rhode Islanders will vote next year on whether the state should hold a constitutional convention, and at this early date 40% of voters say they support having one while 25% oppose doing so and 35% aren’t sure. Similarly, 46% of voters say they support the 2011 pension law championed by Raimondo, while 20% oppose the law and 34% aren’t sure.

In the secretary of state’s race, the lion’s share of Democratic primary voters don’t have a favorite candidate yet: Party Chairman Ed Pacheco gets 15% and Newport Democrat Guillaume de Ramel gets 8%.

Here are the poll results for all the potential general elections for governor tested by PPP:

  • ​Raimondo​ 32%
  • ​Doherty​ 28%
  • ​Chafee [I]​ 22%
  • ​Block​ 8%
  • ​unsure​ 9%
  • ​Doherty​ 31%
  • ​Taveras​ 26%
  • Chafee [I] 23%
  • ​Block​ 10%
  • ​unsure​ 10%
  • ​Raimondo​ 35%
  • ​Fung​ 23%
  • Chafee [I] 21%
  • Block 10%
  • ​unsure​ 12%
  • ​Fung​ 26%
  • Taveras 26%
  • Chafee [I] 20%
  • Block 13%
  • unsure 14%
  • ​Doherty​ 39%
  • Chafee [D]​ 35%
  • ​Block​ 13%
  • unsure 14%
  • ​Fung​ 36%
  • Chafee [D] 32%
  • Block 16%
  • unsure 15%
  • ​Raimondo​ 44%
  • Doherty 32%
  • Block 10%
  • unsure 14%
  • ​Raimondo​ 46%
  • Fung 27%
  • Block 12%
  • unsure 14%
  • ​Taveras​ 39%
  • Doherty 35%
  • Block 13%
  • unsure 13%
  • Taveras 37%
  • Fung 31%
  • Block 15%
  • unsure 17%

And here are the scenarios tested with Democratic primary voters only:

  • Raimondo 35%
  • Chafee 22%
  • Taveras 19%
  • Almonte 11%
  • unsure 12%
  • Raimondo 44%
  • Taveras 35%
  • Almonte 9%
  • unsure 13%
  • Pacheco 15%
  • de Ramel 8%
  • unsure 77%

• Related: Chafee raised $92,000 for re-election bid in fourth quarter (Jan. 31)

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21 Responses to “Poll: Raimondo is favorite for gov; Chafee does best as a Dem”

  1. Mr. Fish says:

    VERY VERY weak Gina numbers. That is the real take away. Wow. Linc in striking distance.

    1. James Taylor says:

      I don’t like Raimondo and would never vote for that jerk that is in there now. However, I will be lucky because I’m moving out of this state, never to return, even for a visit to family. Half my family have already moved out of this division of taxation called RI

  2. Randall Spazniak says:

    I think those Raimundo numbers are inflated. She doesn’t want to negotiate, how on earth would she actually govern? I like the Taveras – Fung matchup, two great guys. Would probably vote for Fung though. Less entitled presence. I like him. He’s like us.

    1. Dino C says:

      You asking for his hand in marriage ?

  3. RISailor says:

    I’d vote for Raimondo because she refused to negotiate and I bet that’s one of the reasons why she is leading. If you think you have a strong legal case why should she negotiate? Just because the unions want it is no reason to negotiate. Moreover, how do you negotiate something that was passed by the legislature – it is not the same as collective bargaining with a city or town.

    Chafee just agreed to negotiate because he wants the unions on his side when he runs for re-election. He could care less about what the right thing is to do for the the majority of citizens.

  4. Cosmo says:

    In the long run, who cares? You have three choices in this tax hell, demoncrats, RINOs or the wishy-washy party. Either way the real power lies with our bought and paid for GA. As long as Rhode Islanders keep voting the same way they have always voted things will never change. There is not one person running for a major office in this state that truly represents me so I’m not even going to bother to vote next time around. And yes I still get to complain even if I don’t vote, it’s called the first amendment.

  5. [...] numbers come the same day a new Public Policy Polling survey showed Chafee faces an uphill battle to win re-election and would have his best chance of winning a second term by running as a [...]

  6. Sarah W. says:

    Gina should have a huge lead after the very favorable press she has received and the victory lap she has taken around the state. The fact that her lead is so small – only 9 points – in a three way primary shows just how vulnerable she is.

  7. Paul Parker says:

    Ted,

    What are the confidence interval and confidence level?

  8. Doug In South County says:

    If the courts rule her “pension reform” illegal, Gina’s poll numbers will not even make any list. She is way too liberal and not at all pragmatic.

  9. John says:

    A vote for Ken Block is a vote for Linc Chafee! In fact he is working for Chafee as well as his former party head and campaign manager Christine Hunsinger. Not to obvious.

  10. Julie says:

    @Randall Spazniak, Are you typing those comments from Fung’s office? Give me a break. He’s so far left he’s better off running as a Democrat. Doherty looks much better as a Republican candidate. The only candidate in the bunch who is pro life, pro traditional marriage and against illegal immigration. Rhode Island voters need a choice. All of the other candidates are pretty much one in the same. Haven’t the Democrats done enough damage?

    1. Marlboro Man says:

      Julie you took the words right out of my mouth…..

      If you want to know what is wrong with the Republican Party , you can start with Fung. He is as much Republican as Alaska is part of Florida.

  11. G says:

    won’t vote for her but would be relieved to have her Out of Treasurer’s office.

    1. Lunch Eater says:

      Sure you would. How’s that trough taste?

  12. Marlboro Man says:

    Now lets all come to our senses, how can anyone take a poll of 600 voters and take it seriously…..

  13. Nick says:

    The candidate who seems to be getting lost in all of this is Ernie Almonte. He is the only one who I can say without a doubt is an honest, hardworking, dedicated, SMART individual who has always done what is best for the State of RI and his family. He has advised the states top leaders on some of the most significant issues facing this state and has come up with plans that will put our children’s future first. Raimondo and Chafee don’t care about our children’s future anymore than they care about yours or mine. Ernie Almonte cares and has shown that his entire life, not just when he decided to run for office. And on top of all of that, he has the secret weapon that has been missing from this state for a long time, COMMON SENSE! He isn’t going to fix the state with a temporary patch or bandaid, he is going to solve it at the root and ensure that our children and their children can prosper in this great state, not pay for our past governors mistakes.

  14. [...] said he is open to doing. The Democratic name to keep an eye on is state Treasurer Gina Raimondo, who polling shows would be a formidable candidate if she runs. (Previous ranking: [...]

  15. [...] There’s an obvious winner in PPP’s new Rhode Island survey: the state’s political press, because the race for governor looks wide open 21 months from [...]

  16. Reality check says:

    one does not need to be a Rhodes Scholar to earn One Percent on an investment.

  17. [...] new Public Policy Polling survey shows that she is just as popular inside The Ocean State as outside it: Raimondo (D) is the early [...]