RI has lost 10% of its prime working-age population since 2006
March 4th, 2013 at 2:46 pm by Ted Nesi under Nesi's Notes, On the Main Site
Rhode Island’s unemployment rate was the highest in the United States in December, and it would have been even higher if tens of thousands of residents in the prime of their working lives hadn’t decided to leave the state during and after the Great Recession.
One of the alternative ways economists check the health of the job market is by looking at the employment status of “prime-age” adults – defined as those between the ages of 25 and 54. Those are the years when most people are focusing on their careers, raising families and saving for retirement. Looking specifically at 25- to 54-year-olds also allows analysts to look past changes caused by demographic shifts as the baby boomers age.
The prime-age numbers for Rhode Island are striking and worrying: excluding soldiers and institutionalized individuals, the state’s civilian population ages 25-54 plunged by 46,000 between 2006 and 2012, a drop of 10% in just six years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Among those who remained, the share with a job dropped by 16% and the number of unemployed more than doubled.
Here’s a chart:
While the 2012 unemployment rate for prime-age Rhode Islanders was 10%, if the 46,000 prime-age workers who’ve left since 2006 had stayed and continued to look for a job, their unemployment rate would have been 19.7% – almost twice as high.
The statistics for prime-age residents tell a different and more troubling story than the Census data for the total population. The BLS says Rhode Island’s total civilian non-institutional 16-and-older population actually inched up by 0.5% between 2006 and 2012. That’s largely because the number of residents ages 55 and older jumped 19%, offsetting the loss of 25- to 54-year-olds.
This appears to signal that older Rhode Islanders are staying in the state but aren’t being replaced by a new generation of younger residents. Rhode Islanders 65 and older made up a larger share of the population than any other age group in 2012, whereas six years ago they were only the third-largest.
More older Rhode Islanders want to hold down a job compared with before the recession, as well: the number of 65-plus residents in the state’s labor force jumped from 21,000 in 2006 to 30,000 in 2012, and the number of 55- to 64-year-olds in the work force rose from 77,000 to 91,000. (There was also a small increase in the 20- to 24-year-old work force, which rose by 3,000.)
Here’s how the age composition of the work force has changed:
• Related: Baker: RI’s problem isn’t population loss, it’s a lousy economy (Jan. 7)
An earlier version of the fifth paragraph in this post transposed the decline in the prime-age population (46,000) with the decline in the prime-age labor force (42,000).
Tags: economic development, economy, employment, great recession, jobs, unemployment
Nesi's Notes covers politics and the economy in and around Rhode Island for WPRI.com. (Twitter: 
Ted why would anyone want to stay in this state. I regret not leaving in 2003 after being laid off from FleetBoston. I could have sold my house at handsome profit. I made the mistake and had faith Rhode Island would make a turnaround. Now the price of my house is below what I paid for it and I have told my kids after college and when I retire we leave Rhode Island. If I can’t sell my house I will give it to my church just to unload the damn thing. Maybe I should donate it to the state and they can make a halfway house for sex offenders.
I just moved back in state to go back to school. I wish I never had moved back. After living in another state for almost a year I can see where this place is going. Most of the population is elderly and contribute nothing to the economy. There are a very low number of actually working professionals in this state. I have never in my life realized how many people over the age of 40 have to walk. Take the bus and/or drive and old beat up car. This place is for no one. I plan on leaving again to become something not stuck in everyone’s defense mode attitude.
And, yet, Rhode Islanders keep electing the same old politicians with the same old “solutions” which just make things worse and worse. Again I say, last one out of Rhode Island, turn out the light.
Nichole, That is the question I have been asking for years. But sadly there really have not been any candidates with any ideas. Same ol same ol…
So, there are 10% less people working in RI in 2012 as compared to 2006. In 2006 the State Budget was $6.349 Billion! In 2012 the State Budget was $8.119 Billion! We have 10% less people working to pay for $1.77 Billion more in spending! I guess we still don’t have a spending problem do we?
i think they call it the brain drain…. my kids will both have $100-200,000 college educations and there is no way they are coming back.
seems like alot of folks in government deny it…
the number 46,000 is absolutely daunting….
you have to get out now or you will be one of the few left to pay the bills..
and ri is a microcosm of the country except the country just prints more money….
anyone with half a brain, sees the state going down the tubes….
You’re right, after my consulting gig is done I’m going to have to give some serious thought to selling out and moving out of this state before I’m the last guy left to pay the bills. Last person out turns off the lights.
If I hadn’t gotten an offer for a great consulting job, I would have been so out of this sewer. I have to spend 4.5 days of the week out of state, but I’ve got a much better job than I could get working in Rhode Island. My case is an example of if you want to make a decent wage, you have to work out of state. And in-state employers know that due to high unemployment for the most part they have a captive workforce that has no choice than to work for lower wages. If I hadn’t been fortunate or if I was a young person just starting out there is no way I would have stayed here. With the combination of high cost of living, high taxes and very few opportunities for good jobs, Rhode Island is just not a good choice.
chafee was just on tv, he said unemployment is down and revenues are up lol
what about the calamari lol
The public, I suspect, is being ‘played’ with a manipulated illegitimate unemployment rate that allows the government, not include the longer term unemployed as well as allow the gov to determine who belongs to that excluded category. Folks unemployed & underemployed since 2008 are not being represented as the more accurate (U6) rate is more like 17.6% (2nd worst in country) while before 2008 is was ~8.3%. RI, a great place to live is looking more and more not like a great place to work.
I know where they went.
What will fix this is binding arbitration!
And having an official state appetizer and forcing companies to hire criminals….
Where do the 20,000 Illegal Aliens employed in our state, according to the Pew Hispanic Center , fit into these statistics?
No big surprise here – just look at the make up of this state: public sector UNIONS – DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP – WELFARE – SECTION 8 – FOOD STAMPS – politicians in this state pander to all who are non-productive and do not contribute to the tax base! Workers are moving out, businesses are closing and those that stay are not hiring. Illegals are moving in having their anchor babies; demanding drivers licenses and social services. Governor “Holiday Tree” panders to them.
WOW! If this chart is accurate, only one third of this state is employed in the private sector. Everyone else is either on the “dole” in some way or they are employed by the gov’t. Either way, most are getting government checks. Talk about being unbalanced. No wonder so many working folks are leaving. Bottom Line is Recycled D-E-M-O-C-R-A-T-S!!!!!!!
Just wondering, that number could represent many of the early retirees of state’s last deal….
My wife and I (middle aged) saw the writing on the wall and left RI in 2009. Our only regret now is not having done so years before. RI is like a drug addict that won’t admit that it has a problem — addicted to public sector unions, welfare expansion and “progressivism” in general, all bound together in Democrat political hegemony (with its faux Republicans getting theirs in return for maintaining the illusion of a two party state) — it keeps rationalizing it’s “great quality of life” as an excuse, but like a drug addict is eventually going to OD (state bankruptcy).
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