By Dan McGowan
WPRI.com Reporter

With Angel Taveras expected to run for governor next year rather than seek a second term as mayor of Providence, city politicians are already quietly – and sometimes not so quietly – laying the early groundwork for their own campaigns to lead Rhode Island’s cash-strapped capital.

The election is nearly two years away and Taveras could still decide to stay, but here’s who has the early buzz to succeed him. (All fundraising numbers are as of Dec. 31, 2012)

__Running__

Michael Solomon
Biggest Strength: Fundraising
Potential Roadblock: Winning the East Side
The Skinny: No matter what Mayor Taveras does, the Democratic City Council president is dead set on running for higher office. He wants to be mayor and his $183,000 war chest combined with growing name recognition make him the early favorite. But if Taveras stays put and Gina Raimondo is the Democratic nominee for governor, Solomon could run for general treasurer, an office his father held from 1977 to 1985 and again from 1989 to 1993.
Campaign cash on hand: $183,120

Sabina Matos
Biggest Strength: Female
Potential Roadblock: Fundraising
The Skinny: The first-term Democratic councilwoman from Ward 15 might have the advantage of being the only female in the race, but she’ll have to build her name recognition and prove she can raise enough money to be competitive.
Campaign cash on hand: $1,278

Victor Capellan
Biggest Strength: Education reform
Potential Roadblock: Name recognition
The Skinny: Of the three candidates who’ve confirmed their plans to run for mayor, Capellan has the best chance of putting together the East Side/South Side coalition that propelled both David Cicilline and Taveras to the city’s top job. He developed strong ties with the Latino community while serving as Taveras’s deputy campaign manager in 2010 and can win over East Side voters by highlighting his work on education reform as deputy superintendent for transformation in Central Falls schools.
Campaign cash on hand: $0

__Interested__

Jorge Elorza
Biggest Strength: Angel 2.0
Potential Roadblock: Experience
The Skinny: A Head Start-to-Harvard kid who grew up to become a Providence Housing Court judge. Sound familiar? Elorza will welcome the comparisons to Mayor Taveras, but he’s also on the board at The Rhode Island Foundation and Lifespan’s Miriam Hospital, which should help with fundraising. The biggest concern for Elorza might be running in a Democratic primary against both Matos and Capellan, which could split the growing Latino vote.
Campaign cash on hand: $0

Gordon Fox
Biggest Strength: Name recognition
Potential Roadblock: Popularity
The Skinny: The House Speaker can easily raise enough money to be competitive and he hopes to be finishing a term that will see voter ID repealed and same-sex marriage passed – both of which could win over progressives. That said, last fall Fox had to bring in both Taveras and Raimondo to help win his House race even though it was a high-turnout presidential election year – and the speaker still lost one of his four polling places.
Campaign cash on hand: $163,948

John Lombardi
Biggest Strength: Name recognition
Potential Roadblock: Winning the East Side
The Skinny: The newly elected Democratic state representative may be the only candidate considering a run no matter what Taveras decides to do. Lombardi finished second to Taveras in the 2010 mayoral primary, losing 49% to 29%, and he might benefit the most from a crowded primary field. Like Solomon, Lombardi would need to hold his own on the South Side and do very well in Federal Hill and Olneyville – Wards 6, 13 and 15 – to counteract strong opposition on the East Side.
Campaign cash on hand: $2,611

John Kelly
Biggest Strength: Fundraising
Potential Roadblock: Winning the South Side
The Skinny: The Meeting Street School CEO might have the largest donor base of any potential candidate and could emerge as the favorite on the East Side, though he was crushed by Scott Slater in the 2009 special election to succeed Slater’s late father as state representative. Kelly flirted with running for mayor in 2010, but ended up supporting Taveras.
Campaign cash on hand: $0

__Worth Mentioning__

Buddy Cianci
Biggest Strength: Name recognition
Potential Roadblock: Convicted felon
The Skinny: Cianci told his radio audience just last week that he isn’t considering running again, but some of his closest allies – and all the other potential candidates – believe Buddy Cianci is seriously thinking about getting back into politics. (The so-called “Buddy amendment” to the state constitution allows felons to run for office three years after they finish their sentences.) Cianci won the mayor’s office as both a Republican and an independent, but the 71-year-old’s best shot in 2014 might be by running as a Democrat in a large primary.
Campaign cash on hand: $0

Myrth York
Biggest Strength: Experience
Potential Roadblock: Age
The Skinny: A three-time gubernatorial candidate, York briefly considered running for mayor in 2010 before endorsing Taveras. She still has plenty of clout on the East Side and would have no trouble raising money, but it’s unclear if she’s willing to get involved in what could be an exhausting race; she’ll be 68 on Election Day.
Campaign cash on hand: $0

Chris Blazejewski
Biggest Strength: Organization
Potential Roadblock: Fox, Elorza, Solomon
The Skinny: The youthful Democratic state representative was just promoted to Speaker Fox’s House leadership team and is considered a rising star on Smith Hill, but if a strong candidate doesn’t emerge on the East Side, he may have to weigh his options. At the very least, all the candidates will be courting his support.
Campaign cash on hand: $21,288

Kevin Jackson
Biggest Strength: Strong community ties
Potential Roadblock: Fundraising
The Skinny: The longest-serving Providence councilman (Ward 3) briefly considered running for mayor in 2010 before supporting Taveras, but since then he’s been highly critical of both the mayor and Council President Solomon. Jackson has strong ties to the South Side and is popular in Mount Hope, but he still owes nearly $37,000 in campaign finance fines and would struggle to raise money.
Campaign cash on hand: $0

__Not Expected to Run__

• Juan Pichardo
• Joe Paolino
• David Salvatore
• Nick Narducci
• Seth Yurdin

Dan McGowan ( dmcgowan@wpri.com ) covers politics and the city of Providence for WPRI.com. Follow him on Twitter: @danmcgowan

(photo: Bruce Morin/WPRI)