Thursday’s Nor’easter

February 12th, 2014 at 1:26 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Thursday’s storm continues to take shape in the Southeastern United States.  At the time of writing this blog entry, more than 300,000 customers were without power throughout Louisiana, Georgia and South Carolina….mainly due to an historic ice storm underway there. 

The center of low pressure which will eventually be our nor’easter is currently in the Gulf of Mexico.  The system is loading up with moisture and will move to the east coast, hug the coastline and move across Cape Cod Thursday night.

Storm_Radar_Social

As the low center moves from the mid-Atlantic across the Cape, it will rapidly intensify.  In fact, it may come close to acheiving the process of “bombogenesis”, which is a surface pressure drop of 24mb in a 24hour period.   Whether it will be classified in that manner, isn’t as important as knowing it will be intensifying rapidly, and this will help bring very strong winds into Southern New England especially Thursday afternoon and evening. 

wind_gusts_SocialAbove is the RPM computer model output for winds in the early afternoon on Thursday.  Notice the wind gusts of 40-60mph! Even during the morning, the winds will be gusty, but the worst will be Thursday afternoon and evening.  Winds of this strength, along with branches weighted down by heavy snow could cause power outages.  In fact, this storm may be better remembered by the wind than the snow.

Here’s the timing of the storm, which should start moving in just before dawn on Thursday.

Storm_Timing_Social

 

During the morning, expect periods of heavy snow creating poor visibility.  Even southeastern Massachusetts will see a period of heavy snow, but rain will begin more quickly there.  Through the morning, warmer air will work its way through Southern New England and by mid-day, we should begin to see some mixing in Providence.  The precipitation turns to an all afternoon wind-driven rain.  The rain may end for awhile Thursday evening.  Late Thursday night and early Friday morning we may see another round of snow.  This is something the models have been indicating during the past 24hours.

Here’s the storm breakdown for Providence.  Note: Expect more snow in the beginning and a later changeover in northwest Rhode Island and a quicker changeover and less snow along the coast and over southeastern Massachusetts.

Snow_Rates_Social

Notice the amount of rain we will be getting (0.7 to 1.0″).  With clogged storm drains, some areas could see localized street flooding.  

The snow, ice, rain and wind will have numerous impacts on commutes, travel, closings, etc.  Here are some thoughts about the impacts this storm will have on us.

 Storm_Impacts_Social

 

While not a prolific snow maker for us, we are expecting significant impacts.  We encourage you to use extra caution while driving Thursday morning, Thursday evening and again Friday morning as road conditions could be poor due to snow, ice, slush, water or maybe even downed branches and or power lines.

I don’t expect widespread delays and cancellations, but the snow could come down heavily at times for a little while Thursday morning before a changeover to rain.  Scattered power outages are possible and airline / ferry services could be affected.

Here’s how much snow I expect for Thursday….

SNOW_Social

Please keep in mind that a 20-40mile change in the track of the storm could alter these snow amounts significantly.   We encourage you to check back to further forecasts. 

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

14 Responses to “Thursday’s Nor’easter”

  1. Amy Mulvihill says:

    I really want to have a state of emergency so I don’t have to work from 6pnm to 2 am in the early morn. But like the government cares about us normal people. Just state workers he cares about.

    1. Wanagi Kangee says:

      He only cares about state workers? You must flip burgers because you’re not too bright. He hasn’t issued a state of emergency all winter, and when he does, state workers don’t get a free ride. That policy has changed. Please, before you speak out, know that of which you speak.

      1. Sean Rowan says:

        You idiot….real workers mostly have to show, we cannot get days off for minor weather. State workers have a tit job, nothing has changed. Not everyone else is a burger flipper you freak. Please, before you speak, just shut the F up.

      2. Wanagi Kangee says:

        Yeah that’s it. I’m an idiot. That’s why I’m doing so well while you’re whining like an infant. And I don’t have a tit job nor am I a state worker. I just pay attention, as you should….

  2. Kim says:

    I don’t know what part of MA you live in Amy, but we can’t freak out and shut the state down every time we get snow!!! This is New England, we get winter storms every year!! And it seems like every year, people get more and more freaked out about less and less snow……

    1. Pam says:

      Amen to that, Kim!!! People panic earlier and earlier in advance of a storm that may or may not happen as forecasters predict, and the purpose is to help us prepare, not to incite riots. The point I think Amy is making is she simply doesn’t want to work; the storm is just an excuse. Maybe she should be grateful to have a job!

    2. LOL says:

      Who’s freaking out? Amy didn’t sound too panicky, more like disgruntled. It was more wishful thinking and a knock on politicians than anything else.

      Actually, in all of my years I wouldn’t say that I’ve ever seen too much panicking over snow storms. People do like to prepare for the worst, but preparation and panic do not have to go hand-in-hand. Going overboard and clearing the market of all its bread and milk might be a bit neurotic, but that’s not “panic”.

      Still, 3 or 4 inches of snow during rush hour can be very treacherous and a 20 min commute can easily turn into a couple of hours. I’ve never met anyone who’s enjoyed moments like those.

      1. Quahog says:

        I took Amy’s comment as someone who would like a day off! There is something nice actually about being in a nice warm house during a wicked stahm. I was thinking today about the panicking thing and I believe it is the folks who lived through the famous blizzard that shut everything down for a week. I lived in Chicago then (where snow is everyday) but had friends and relatives here that have some incredible stories, especially those that got stuck downtown and had to rifle through the company cafeterias for food. Many slept on floors of lobbies, etc. Many were in stalled cars on the highway. That is where the panic comes from as otherwise it was a regular snowy business as usual day for those folks.

        I was in two big storms in Chicago, one known as “the big snow of’67′ which shut down the region for a good week and the other bad one was when we had a huge ice storm and we all lost power for over a week, no generators…it was cold and a true hardship with trees down all over the place so kids could not go out safely (though we did ice skate on our street just because it was cool).

        If you are younger you would not have been through any of those bad storms and so yes, it probably looks pretty crazy when people who remember those times panic at the first flake (that’s because, like Atlanta last week, they should have sent people home much earlier).

        Keep it in perspective. There will be lives lost, including individuals out dealing with the mess that get hit by falling branches…so it’s something to respect.

  3. Young Rhode Island Boon says:

    Don’t worry! Traffic will be fine tomorrow. Just tell everyone to drive slow. They’ll listen… right?

  4. mom says:

    calm down

  5. Wanagi Kangee says:

    Mom says calm down so calm the hell down. No one listens to Mom anymore…

    1. Joshua says:

      Hahaha! !!!! That is awesome. Got to love a good Mom joke.

  6. Weezy says:

    More concerned about flooded streets after all the wind driven rain , when it starts melting the snow, now that will be a slushy mess to drive in!

  7. kate says:

    People who flip burgers get shafted just as much as the city workers. i worked third shift management at a burger place that was 24 hours in a really crappy storm last year. the only people i ended up seeing that entire night were people plowing and shoveling. i honestly feel the worst for the people that have absolutely no shelter though. and i can totally understand why having to get to work in weather like that can be hard. not everyone has transportation.