Here is the latest thinking as of Monday Morning, November 25:
Our computer models have come into good agreement with the storm system moving up the East Coast of the United States on Wednesday. While confidence is high that New England will get hit by the storm, the latest indications are that, given the storm track, it will bring RAIN and WIND to the major cities of the northeast—from DC/Baltimore to Philly, NYC and Boston this will be a heavy rain maker. In fact, even far northern New England will see mostly rain from this latest storm with the rain/snow line pushed far to the west–into northern and western New York State and southeast Canada. That’s good news for pre-Thanksgiving travels; however, any unsettled weather on this busy travel day will likely lead to some delays on the roads and in the air.
The latest runs of the NAM, GFS and ECWMF computer models this morning all show a storm track through western CT on Wednesday morning:
06Z NAM valid Wednesday Morning
00z GFS valid Wednesday Morning
This inland would mean a strong southerly wind in RI/SE MA and temperatures soaring to near 60 during the day. With that in mind, the biggest concerns will be the potential for heavy rain leading to localized street and poor drainage flooding along with perhaps some minor small stream flooding.
Begins: Light showers arrive after 4pm on Tuesday
Heaviest: From 12am to 12pm on Wednesday
Ends: Showers taper off Wednesday evening
Rainfall: 2-3″ of rain likely with isolated amounts to near 4″.
Winds: South winds 20-30mph with gusts 40-50mph. Isolated wind damage/power outages possible.
Some travel impacts can be expected from this storm, though not as significant as if wintry weather were impacting the area. Heavy rain could lead to localized street and poor drainage flooding and slowed travel on local roadways–especially through the first half of Wednesday.
Air delays should not be too significant due to the storm (volume of travelers causing delays is an entirely different story).
Rain is outta here on Wednesday night with dry skies and MUCH COLDER conditions for Thanksgiving. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s with wind chills in the ‘teens. Football fields will be soggy from Wednesday’s rain, but dry skies are expected for the high school games.