All week we’ve been talking about a cold front slowing down as it moved off the southern New England coast today… well, there’s some good news! Instead of the front pestering us with lingering clouds and showers… it looks like it will move just far enough away for the dry air to win out. That means a pretty nice Thursday. It won’t be as hot or as humid with partly sunny skies. There’s just a small chance of a brief shower, but most of us should stay dry through the day. I hope you can get out and enjoy the day.
Flash Flood warning has been issued for parts of RI and SE MA for much of RI and into parts of Bristol County in MA. A Flash flood warning means that flash flooding is occuring or imminent. This line of strong thunderstorms has brought torrential rainfall with rates of 2-3″/hr. Street and poor drainage flooding is likely along with some smaller stream flooding.
Today’s the day that RI and southeastern MA will have the highest risk of showers and thunderstorms due to a slow-moving cold front. It’s a front that’s been sparking nasty storms across New England since Sunday evening and today it will FINALLY move through southeastern New England and then eventually off-shore. We’ve been able to dodge most of the storms over the last few days, but today I think our luck runs out. Since the front is approaching RI and southeastern MA (and eventually moving over us), we have a high chance of seeing rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the day. In fact, we’ve already been dealing with downpours for the morning commute.
The main concern today continues to be the potential for FLASH FLOODING. The Flash Flood watch is in effect until 2pm. Tropical downpours will be off and on through the day with rainfall rates of up to 1-2″ per hour possible. That sort of deluge can cause typically prone spots to quickly flood, making travel difficult. The threat of severe storms is a bit lower than the last few days, but we could certainly see some embedded stronger thunderstorms with frequent lightning and isolated damaging wind gusts.
The same steamy air mass and slow moving cold front that brought some showers and thunderstorms to New England on Monday is still affecting our weather today. And the risk for severe storms continues. The storm prediction center is continuing to highlight western New England as the area most at risk of seeing storms with damaging winds and heavy rain develop. The high-resolution RPM model is showing that area to be one to watch by early-mid afternoon.
There is even a slight chance of an isolated tornado spinning up in one of these thunderstorms today. In southeastern New England, the risk of severe weather will be lower, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see some nasty storms later today. Any storms that develop in western New England will need to be carefully monitored as they move east towards the RI border during the afternoon and evening.
Our area will see more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms late tonight and Wednesday as the cold front finally moves through southeastern New England. We’re at risk of torrential downpours and gusty winds during Wednesday morning’s commute with localized street and poor drainage flooding potentially leading to a slow commute.
The rain will taper off from west to east through the late afternoon and evening, with drier weather finally returning by Thursday.
Our area has been placed under a “slight” risk for severe storms today by the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK.
As the Pinpoint Weather Team has been stating over the last few days… our atmosphere will be primed for strong to severe storms to pop-up over the next few days. As for today… humidity will build and some peeks of hazy sun should allow for the atmosphere to become unstable… as a piece of energy in the upper-levels lifts through southern New England it will act as the focus for storms to begin developing through the afternoon. Torrential downpours and damaging winds are the biggest concerns with these storms.
The Storm Prediction Center has also placed areas just to our southwest under a slight (2%) risk of a tornado.
Locally, the National Weather Service office in Taunton has issued a “FLASH FLOOD WATCH” for Connecticut and Western MA. These areas are most at risk of seeing rounds of thunderstorms that could contain very heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding. Some storms could dump up to 3″+ of rain over the next few days.
The risk of flash flooding will likely spread east into RI/SE MA, especially later Tuesday into early Wednesday.
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The National Weather Service storm survey team says it was a powerful microburst that caused the wind damage in the Boston suburb of Bedford around 5:45pm yesterday. A severe thunderstorm hit the area during the evening rush hour, carving a path of damage across the center of Bedford that was 2.5 miles long, and a half mile wide, uprooting trees and power lines. The storm survey team estimates winds were 90-100mph in the microburst, which leads to straight line wind damage.
The storm blew down and uprooted approximately 50-70 trees–most of them were healthy pine trees towering some 100ft high! Some of the trees landed on houses and caused significant damage. Here are some pictures from storm spotters in Massachusetts yesterday.
Despite many images of what appeared to be a funnel cloud in the Medford and Malden areas around 6pm, there were no eyewitness reports of any tornadoes.
While the heat and humidity build this afternoon, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can’t be ruled out… though we don’t expect the activitiy to be as widespread as yesterday around Boston. Here’s where the NOAA Storm Prediction Center is indicating the highest risk of severe storms will be–with damaging winds being the biggest threat.
The NERFC says other notable July cyclones in our area were:
Bertha on July 13, 1996 and Brenda or July 30, 1960
New information in from the National Hurricane Center shows that Hurricane Arthur continues to intensify. As of 11am, sustained winds had reached 90mph with gusts up to 115mph. Outer rain bands were working their way on shore in North Carolina and the storm is now forecast to reach Category 2 status as it hits the Outer Banks of North Carolina tonight. Meanwhile… the storm is still expected to track 50-100miles off-shore, with heavy rain and rip currents the main impacts in southeastern New England. Timing remains on track with the heaviest of the rain Friday afternoon and evening.
In the short term, hot, humid air and hazy sun are helping to fuel thunderstorms popping up along and ahead of a slow moving cold front. The storm prediction center is highlighting parts of western and central New England as areas that could see more severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Heavy rain, frequent lightning and damagin winds are the main concerns with these storms today. If you are planning on outdoor activities today and tonight, keep an eye to the sky for changing weather conditions as our area could see a few isolated strong storms, too. Most of the day should stay dry, though.
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Additional strengthening is expected through the day as the storm moves northeast towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Our computer models continue to indicate that Arthur stays well southeast of RI and Southeastern MA.
As tropical moisture from Arthur interacts with a cold front sitting over southern New England we are looking at a rainy 4th of July–especially in the afternoon and evening. Here’s the latest on what to expect for our area.
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Arthur has strengthened into a hurricane early this morning–the 1st of the 2014 Hurricane season. There have been no major changes to the track or intensity forecast for this storm. Arthur is still expected to track around 50-100miles south and east of Nantucket.
Here’s the latest bulletin from the National hurricane Center:
BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 …ARTHUR NOW A HURRICANE… …EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT…
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…
LOCATION…31.3N 79.1W ABOUT 340 MI…545 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.
INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA…PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK —————————— AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.
STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE… NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS…2 TO 4 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS…2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA…1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA…1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ————- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
As of 2am, Tropical Storm Arthur was near hurricane strength with sustained winds of 70mph. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft was investigating the storm now and it could become a hurricane soon. The storm is moving north at about 8mph and is still more than 300mi southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC. Arthur is expected to start moving to the north-northeast today and increase it’s forward speed, approaching the coast of NC late Thursday night/Friday morning. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center of the storm. As we’ve continued to mention, Arthur makes it’s closest pass to us late Friday night/Saturday morning, bringing a period of heavy rain and rough seas to our area. Depending on the track and intensity of the storm, there could also be a brief period of Tropical Storm Force winds over Eastern MA and possibly part of the RI coast.
Look for more info to come through the morning… the next update from the National Hurricane Center will be at 5am.
The 11am update from the National Hurricane Center is in and new Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the North Carolina Coast, which means Tropical Storm conditions are likely there within 24hours. Meanwhile, Arthur is about 114miles east of Daytona Beach, FL and has maintained 60mph sustained winds. The strongest winds are on the eastern side of the storm and the cloud pattern is looking rather ragged. Here are the latest stats and forecast track.
The forecast maintains a track near the 40N/70W benchmark about 100mi southeast of Nantucket.
We are continuing to track 2 main players in our weather forecast for the next few days into the weekend–an approaching cold front from the west and Tropical Storm Arthur off the coast of Florida. The result will be a high chance of rain for your 4th of July, followed by better weather Saturday and Sunday.
First the latest on TS Arthur–Arthur strengthened overnight as it moved north at about 5mph. As of 8am, sustained winds were 60mph with gusts to nearly 70mph. Additional strengthening is forecast to occur over the next few days and Arthur could become a hurricane by Thursday. The track from the National Hurricane Center brings Arthur very close to the Outer Banks of NC by Friday morning as a Cat. 1 hurricane and then takes it several hundred miles southeast of Nantucket by late Friday night/early Saturday morning. On that off-shore track, southern New England would get building seas and dangerous rip currents mostly Friday and Saturday.
As for the cold front–it is slowly marching into New England today. With ultra high humidity and hazy sun, strong to severe thunderstorms will pop up along and ahead of the front in western and northern New England. These storms will be capable of bringing damaging winds and hail, but the biggest issue will likely be the torrential downpours that will be possible. The front will likely be far enough away through this evening that RI and SE MA stay STORM-FREE…. even Thursday likely won’t be a “washout”. There will be a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms–mainly by late afternoon and evening. Some of those storms could be strong with heavy rain and gusty winds. Our highest chance of seeing widespread showers and thunderstorms will come, unfortunately, on July 4th as the front finally crawls into RI and MA. The rain could be heavy at times with some localized flooding possible. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting as much as 1-2″+ of rain by Friday night in our area… with 3″+ totals just off to our east. If the storm ends up tracking closer those higher amounts will be possible. Bottom line is that it is almost certain that you’ll see some rain on July 4th. Stay tuned for updates!
Tropical Depression #1 has been nearly stationary off the coast of Florida this morning with sustained winds of 35mph. As we monitor it for signs of better organization and intensification today, the forecast from the National Hurricane Center has changed a bit. As of the 5am update, the NHC is now forecasting TD #1 to become Tropical Storm “Arthur” later today and then to be a category 1 hurricane as it moves southeast of New England Friday night. What does that mean for our weather? Well, the storm is still expected to remain off-shore, so on this track a “HIGH IMPACT” from a hurricane is unlikely. However, it WILL play a role in our weather.
As we mentioned yesterday, a cold front will move into the northeast on Thursday and Friday and interact with tropical moisture steaming northward from “Arthur”. That will lead to potential rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms, especially from Thursday night to Friday afternoon in RI and SE MA. The eventual track and timing of “Arthur” will determine whether we can dry out in time for fireworks displays on Friday evening or if the downpours will continue into Friday night. Several overnight computer models kept rain going near the coast and Cape late into Friday night. The rest of the weekend looks much better with dry skies Saturday and Sunday and much less humid conditions behind the cold front. In addition to any showers and thunderstorms, we’re also likely to see “Arthur” churn up our seas, leading to high surf at the beaches from late week into the weekend. It’s good news for surfers, but will likely lead to dangerous rip currents for swimmers.Make sure to stay tuned for more updates on the holiday weekend weather as changes in the track and timing of Arthur could lead to adjustments in the forecast.
While the weather is tranquil on this Monday, it’s a busy day in the Pinpoint Weather Center as we track potential thunderstorms around the 4th of July as well as what’s brewing off of the Florida coast. TJ has a great blog on what to watch with the tropics and potential development of Tropical Storm Arthur, but I want to hit on the thunderstorm threat for July 3 and Independence Day July 4– 2 very busy days for outdoor events, fireworks and parades.
A cold front that is in the nation’s midsection today is going to be moving into New England by Wednesday and then off-shore on Friday. As the front marches east, heat and humidity will build next few days on a southwest wind. Very soupy air will be in place by Wednesday… making our atmosphere primed for thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the front. As of this morning, it looks like most of the storms will still be to our west on Wednesday–in central/western New England. But by Thursday, scattered thunderstorms are likely to move into RI/SE MA.
The storm system that’s brought severe weather to southern states this week is finally making its way into New England. But instead of severe storms (too chilly and raw for them) we are going to see a cold rain.
Here’s what to expect for this dreary Wednesday:
RAINFALL: Off/on through today and then turning steadier and heavier tonight into Thursday morning. Rainfall totals of 1-2” expected. Rain will taper off through the afternoon on Thursday with some peeks of late day sun late day tomorrow.
FLOOD WATCH: A flood watch is in effect from this evening through tomorrow afternoon for much of RI. The main concern will be street and poor drainage flooding.
TEMPERATURES: Nasty today… staying in the 40s through the day with wind chills in the 30s…. feels more like early March than the last day of April. Temperatures will begin rising overnight and will be in the 50s by dawn Thursday and then into the 60s by Thursday afternoon.
WINDS: East winds today will gust to 20mph and then turn more southeast tonight.
The good news about this storm is that it will push out the chilly, damp air and bring a return to a milder, more spring-like airmass for the end of the week and the weekend. Afternoon highs tomorrow will be some 20F warmer than today! And we’ll stay in the 60s for highs through the weekend.
Spring warmth continues to elude us in these final days of April as a damp east-northeast flow off the ocean is keeping southeastern New England cool, cloudy and raw. In fact, temperatures today are more typical of mid to late March as afternoon highs struggle to hit 50F. And tomorrow doesn’t look any better. The winds off of the chilly waters to our east will keep clouds abundant and the air chilly. While sprinkles are popping up today… some lighter showers will begin to move in tomorrow with steadier and heavier rain expected by Wednesday night. While spring goes on a brief hiatus in southern New England, much of the rest of the nation is dealing with a big storm system that’s crawling across the country and bringing deadly tornadoes, flooding rains and even some snow!
As of Tuesday at noon, there has been 124 tornadoes and at least 31 deaths from this outbreak of severe weather with another afternoon and evening of intense storms expected in the deep south. You can see from the Storm Prediction Center the large area of the Ohio Valley and southeastern US that will have the risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight.The storm system will continue it’s slow trek towards the east coast, eventually affecting New England by later Wednesday into Thursday. While severe thunderstorms are not a concern here, we will see some heavier downpours and isolated rumbles of thunder. The steadiest and heaviest of the rain in RI/SE MA will fall from Wednesday night to Thursday morning with as much as 1-2″ of rain possible. The main issues will likely be some street and poor drainage flooding.
The good news about the storm is that it will sweep out the chilly air and low clouds and give us a milder finish to the work week. In fact, we may be well into the 60s by Thursday afternoon with more seasonable temperatures for Friday and the weekend.
There is going to be a major temperature change over the next 24 hours as a strong cold front sweeps out the warm air from the last few days and replaces it with a much colder air mass. As that transitions occurs, rain and wind are moving through. In fact, scattered showers began developing overnight, blocking out the lunar eclipse for southern New England stargazers. Those scattered showers are continuing to pop-up this morning and into this afternoon ahead of the main area of soaking rain. Heavier rain is expected to move in by late afternoon and evening and then continue into the night.
Here’s what to expect:
RAIN: 1-2″ with isolated higher totals.
Our area is now under a flood watch until Wednesday morning. We are mostly concerned with street and poor drainage flooding for this evening, but our swollen rivers and streams will need to be watched for possible flooding if higher rainfall totals occur.
WIND: Southerly winds 20-30mph with gusts up to 50mph.
A Wind advisory is in effect from noon until midnight, when most of the stronger gusts are expected. Smaller branches and tree limbs could fall leading to isolated power outages. Minor coastal flooding is possible during this evening’s high tide (around 8:30-9pm) due to the strong southerly winds pushing water to the shoreline.
TEMPERATURES: Near 65 this afternoon and then tumbling to near 33 by dawn Wednesday.
Mild air ahead of a strong cold front will keep temperatures above average for one last day. Even this evening starts mild, with temperatures in the 50s as late as 10pm before rapidly dropping into the 30s once the cold front moves through. We’ll have to watch northwestern suburbs, where temperatures may fall below freezing for a few hours, with some icy spots possible on untreated surfaces.
Heavy rain continues to slow the morning commute with a FLOOD ADVISORY issued for our area until 10am.
Rainfall totals near 1″ are likely… the main impacts are localized street and poor drainage flooding along with some rapid rises in smaller streams. Right now, our major rivers will be very swollen, but should remain below flood stage today. The Pawcatuck River in Westerly could see some minor flooding by tomorrow morning.
Rain will taper off by mid-day with some slow clearing through the afternoon. A cold front will sweep across our area this afternoon with some slightly cooler, but dry and bright weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Beyond this morning, our next chance for rain will be Friday into early Saturday.
After a beautiful Sunday, some changes are on the way for today. It will still be pleasant through the day and dry until this evening. But we are tracking our next weather system which will deliver a decent slug of rain tonight. Ahead of the rain, skies will turn mostly cloudy this afternoon and southeasterly winds will become breezy. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s inland to low 50s along the coast.
The rain will begin to move in after the evening commute, turning steadier and heavier from about 9pm to 5am. During that time, some downpours, isolated thunder and fog are possible. Rainfall totals will be between 3/4″ to 1.5″ of rain. That’s enough to cause some minor flooding issues… We are mostly concerned with poor drainage and street flooding; however, we’ll also be watching local rivers and streams as water levels are still running high.
Rain will taper off early Tuesday (before 10am) and the rest of the day will be dry and breezy.
Light snow through the morning left a dusting on most surfaces, but little in the way of accumulations. Looking at the latest data coming in… our forecast mostly remains on track, with the bulk of the accumulating snow expected mid to late afternoon into early this evening. This is still expected to have a significant impact on the evening rush hour. In fact, there are quite a few school districts with early dismissals and canceled after school activities. You can get the full list here: http://www.wpri.com/weather/closings
Here’s how our afternoon is expected to play out:
In the end, we’re still expecting to see between 2-4″ of snow by late evening.
We are tracking snow moving into New England this morning… just a little ahead of schedule. As of 7am, snow was already falling in southwestern CT, Long Island and NYC…. that area of snow will head into RI and SE MA between 8-10am. The snow should quickly coat untreated surfaces, including roadways and sidewalks, making travel conditions slick. However, the steadier snow is still slated for the afternoon and early evening–mainly noon-5pm.
We’re still expecting between 2-4″ of snow in our area… though most of us will probably come in on the low end of that range–near 2″… with the near 4″ totals most likely in northern RI.
Temperatures were frigid at dawn this morning, with many areas seeing the coldest temperatures since January! In fact, we even had some communities reporting below zero temperatures around 6am:
Despite that very cold start… the track of our clipper system today would still support some mixing with sleet/rain near the coast… mainly east of Buzzards Bay. Main impacts from this system will be in the afternoon as snow-covered roadways will make for slow travel getting home from school and work.
With the icy remains of the weekend’s snow, sleet and rain greeting us on this Monday morning… there is no rest for the storm weary. Our focus has already shifted to our next weather system for Tuesday. It’s not a major storm–but the timing is poor–with snow falling during the day and evening during on a weekday.
As for today, a few light snow showers and flurries passed through pre-dawn ahead of an arctic cold front that will send our temperatures tumbling, especially tonight. During the day, temperatures will hover between 25-30, with gusty west-northwest winds keeping wind chills in the ‘teens.
Under clear skies early tonight, temperatures will fall to some of the coldest we’ve seen all season–as low as 10-15 by dawn. Clouds will quickly fill in through the early morning. Skies should stay dry for the AM commute, but snow develops by mid-day and turns steadier and heavier by the time schools let out and the evening commute gets underway. Here’s a timeline for Tuesday’s snow:
It’s a small and fast-moving clipper system… these can be notoriously hard to predict… but our computer models are in fairly good agreement bringing as much as 2-4″ of snow over much of southern New England. The track of the clipper would bring in enough warm air to allow for some mixing/change to rain near the coast/Cape. Meanwhile, there may be a burst of heavier snow within that 2-4″ area–possibly northeastern MA??–which could see some isolated 5-6″ totals.
Check back in for updates through the day/night as we fine tune the forecast.
New data in today continues to show a winter storm impacting southern New England this weekend. Storm timing hasn’t changed with the height of the storm still expected to be Saturday evening/night. That means we’re still more than a day away, and you’ll want to stay tuned to any updates in the forecast as we continue to track this developing storm and it’s eventual track/intensity.
Confidence this morning is high for a period of accumulating snow for ALL OF RI and SE MA. Most of the accumulations occur between 8pm Saturday and 2am on Sunday. The highest accumulations (inland) will be where we stay “all snow” with accumulation amounts less where sleet/freezing rain and rain mixes in the longest (near the coast). I’m still thinking that most of our area ends up with 3-6″ of snow with amounts up to 8″ in far northern/western RI. The immediate coast of SE MA/lower Cape and Islands could see as little as 1-3″ of snow before changing to freezing rain and rain.
Light snow showers will begin to move in Saturday afternoon, with little to no accumulation before 7pm. However, pavement temperatures will be very cold, so any untreated surfaces could become slick.
After 7-8pm the snow intensity will pick up and travel will become more difficult with reduced visibility and slippery roads.
We expect this storm to track very close to Nantucket and the Cape. That track will bring in enough warm air that during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday, a transition to sleet and then freezing rain and rain is expected at the coast and most likely all the way into northern RI by dawn on Sunday.
Lingering lighter rain/freezing rain and/or sleet should taper off by late morning on Sunday with drier, brisk conditions for Sunday afternoon.
Winds in this storm will be from the northeast and peak Saturday night at 20-30mph.
Cold and dry weather on the way for today with temperatures running more than 15° below normal for most. The arctic air is going to settle in for the rest of the work week and into the weekend…. which brings us to our weekend storm threat. This morning’s computer models are still painting a picture of a weekend storm with accumulating snow for most of New England. Keep in mind this is a storm that has yet to form, so determining the exact track/intensity/precip type is still tricky.
Timing wise–first flakes fall sometime Saturday afternoon/early evening with the storm height Saturday late evening and night.
It still looks like it will be cold enough for accumulating snow at the start–even along the coast–before mixing with or changing to rain or sleet.
It’s still too early to give an accumulation map… but at this point, it looks like most of our area will end up with LESS THAN 6″ of snow from this storm… but northern RI could be close to 6″. Stay tuned for updates!
Snow continues to fall at varying intensities this afternoon…. sticking mostly to grassy surfaces and car tops. Another inch or so of accumulation likely for most before winding down early this evening. Based on latest observations, I have trimmed the accumulation map down slightly… with most of us probably ending up on the low end of 1-3″ .
Roadways should be mostly “wet” through the afternoon and evening commute… We’ll have to watch for black ice to develop as temperatures tumble under clearing skies this evening and tonight.
Snow continues to fill in across southern New England this morning with small accumulations of 1/2″ to 3/4″ reported in Glocester, RI by about 10am. Other areas have had a tougher time seeing the snow stick as temperatures have hovered in the mid-30s. I envision the air slowly cooling over the next few hours and small snowfall accumulations beginning even in coastal areas as we head into the afternoon.
Snowfall accumulations of 1-3″ with isolated 4″ totals still look reasonable for today. As temperatures tumble under clearing skies this evening and tonight, watch for slippery spots and black ice to form with temperatures falling to near 20 late at night.
Watch for black ice on untreated surfaces this morning… as for the snow… the timing of the snow for today hasn’t changed… this is going to be a daytime event with snow arriving around/shortly after 9am and tapering off by early evening (4-6pm). It’s going to be enough snow to plow/shovel with 2-3″ totals for most of RI/SE MA. A heavier band of snow may set up somewhere in our area, bringing slightly higher amounts . Obviously, this is not a “blockbuster” storm… but the timing is tough for school dismissals and the evening commute… plan on travel conditions to become more difficult on local roads by mid-day and remain slick through the evening. Visibility will be reduced to 1mile or less in heavier busts of snow and roadways will become snow-covered. Here’s the latest accumulation map:
No time to catch our breath… as quickly as this morning’s burst of light snow/freezing rain/rain is moving out, our next disturbance is taking shape. It’s one that will bring another round of wintry weather into southern New England on Tuesday.
In fact, there is growing confidence in a period of accumulating snow for our area. A weak and quick-hitting disturbance will ride southeast of New England tomorrow, overspreading light to moderate snow over the area… with Rhode Island and southeastern MA likely to see the highest impact in New England. This will be a “daytime” event–with the snow starting AFTER the morning commute and mostly over with BEFORE the evening commute. Here’s the storm timing for Tuesday:
Here’s the latest RPM Model guidance:
The precipitation will fall mostly as snow with many of us ending up with between 1-3″ of snowfall. Some computer models are forecasting higher amounts, but there’s going to be a very sharp cut-off between those that see accumulating snow and areas that see just flurries on the northern edge of the system. My concern right now is that any shift in the track to the south will keep the accumulating snow off-shore and bring our area only light snow showers/flurries. You’ll want to check back in for updates today and tomorrow morning as we fine-tune the forecast.
Radar as of 7am showing the icy mix of light snow/sleet/freezing rain from overnight transitioning to plain rain as temperatures begin to warm above freezing. Road conditions are improving SE of I-95 this morning, but wintry weather continues in our northern and western suburbs… perhaps into late morning.
Our futurecast show lingering light rain and drizzle late morning and early afternoon before drying out this evening, leading to better conditions for the evening commute.
As quickly as this bout of wintry weather moves out… we have another weak system that will move in on its heels for tomorrow. Our computer models in the last 24 hours or so have been honing in on the potential for another round of snow, possibly with small accumulations. This is the latest RPM model for Tuesday at noon, showing light snow in southeastern New England:
Latest indications are that parts of RI/SE MA could see a coating to 2″ of snow…. timing will be from late morning through late afternoon: 10am-3pm.