Michelle Muscatello

Dry Skies for Primary Day Voters

September 8th, 2014 at 11:32 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Candidates will have Mother Nature in their corner this Primary Day, with pleasant weather conditions for getting voters to the polls.

Polling places will open at 7am under a mix of clouds and milky sun with temperatures climbing from the 50s into the 60s.  The day in Rhode Island and Massachusetts will remain mostly dry, with fairly low humidity and temperatures in the 70s in the afternoon.  It will be slightly cooler than normal for the 2nd week of September.

temp 2

High pressure will stay to our north as an area of low pressure moves from the North Carolina coast into the waters well south of New England…. while some of the clouds from this disturbance will make their way into southern New England, the wet weather will not.  Rain stays suppressed to the south, leading to a dry walk/drive to polling places.  The exception to that may be an isolated sprinkle/light shower that could fall on Cape Cod or the Islands

temp 1

Tuesday Morning Surface Map Valid at 8am

temp2

Tuesday Evening Surface Map Valid at 8pm

For more details on the Primary Elections check out our Campaign 2014 coverage here.


2014 Summer in Review

September 2nd, 2014 at 11:52 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

With the start of September, meteorological summer in North America has come to an end and autumn has begun.  Looking back on the summer of 2014, it will likely be remembered as one without extreme heat and humidity and without a lot of rainy days…. and for the most part, that’s what our data shows.  At TF Green Airport, where our records for Rhode Island are kept temperatures from June 1 through August 31 were 0.5° cooler than normal with 1.88″ less rainfall than normal.  Here’s a breakdown of the data:

PROVIDENCE …PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH                      AVG LOW                AVG MEAN                PCPN

  ——–                              ——-                            ——–                      —- —- ——-

JUN:                   78.2                               57.3                              67.8                        2.36

 +0.7                                -1.1                                -0.2                          -1.28

 

JUL:                   82.9                              65.4                               74.2                           3.59

 +0.1                             +1.2                                 +0.7                         +0.30

 

AUG:                   80.4                           60.6                               70.5                              2.70

 -1.0                             -2.6                                  -1.8                               -0.90

 

SEASONAL SUMMARY —————-

SUMMER:           80.5                       61.1                                      70.8                            8.65

  -0.1                        -0.9                                     -0.5                                -1.88

RECORDS ——-

7/04…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.68…PREVIOUSLY 1.65 IN 1978

08/13…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.26…PREVIOUSLY 1.28 IN 1958

 

As for meteorological autumn…. it’s certainly starting off warm–with the first week of September looking and feeling more like July, temperatures will be will above average.  And the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting both the month of September and Autumn as a whole to be warmer than average in the east.  So keep those pools open…. at least for now :)

September Temperature Probability

September Temperature Probability

 

Sept, Oct, Nov Temperature Probability

3-month Temp Outlook for Sept, Oct, Nov


Swells from Cristobal Have Arrived, High Surf Continues

August 28th, 2014 at 9:07 am by under General Talk

High Surf Advisory continues along our ocean facing beaches today as swells from Hurricane Cristobal have now reached our coastline.  We’ve been watching the surf building through the night and beach surf could reach 6-12ft today, leading to potentially strong and dangerous rip currents.  There were reports of dozens of water rescues yesterday at area beaches and conditions will be worse today, so be extra cautious if heading to the beach. temp 2

temp 1

Hurricane Cristobal is making it’s closest pass today, staying about 300miles south and east of Nantucket, so the only effects felt from the storm are in our waters.  The seas will stay unsettled into Friday with the high surf advisory through at least noon.  There could still be a moderate risk for rip currents into the start of the holiday weekend.


Cristobal to Bring High Surf, Dangerous Rip Currents

August 27th, 2014 at 7:36 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Hurricane Cristobal is continuing on a track that will keep it well off-shore of southern New England with no threat of a landfall. temp 1 However, it is leading to higher surf and an increased risk for rip currents at our beaches over the next few days.  Already today, ocean facing beaches in RI and southeastern MA have a moderate risk for rip currents so be cautious if you are beach bound and plan on swimming.

By this evening, surf will build to as high as 6-9ft and there will be a high risk for rip currents.  In fact, our coastline is now under a “High Surf Advisory” from 8pm this evening through 8pm Thursday.   temp 2

Seas will begin to diminish by Friday and the Labor day weekend as Cristobal moves further away from the area.


23rd Anniversary of Hurricane Bob

August 19th, 2014 at 1:02 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog
HURRICANE_BOB

Courtesy: NOAA

It was 23 years ago this afternoon, on August 19, 1991 that Hurricane Bob made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane in Rhode Island. bobphoto11

It was the last direct hit from a hurricane in southern New England, though we’ve certainly had impacts from tropical systems in recent years–including Tropical Storm Irene and Super Storm Sandy.  Most recently, Hurricane Arthur spoiled our 4th of July with a soaking rainfall as it tracked south and east of Nantucket.

Here’s a great write up from the National Weather Service in Taunton, MA about the effects of the storm in southern New England:

Hurricane Bob developed in the central Bahamas on August 16, then steadily intensified and reached hurricane status on the evening of August 17. Bob continued to strengthen during the next 48 hours, as it began an acceleration north-northeastward, paralleling the East Coast. The eye of Hurricane Bob passed over Block Island, Rhode Island at approximately 1:30 PM, and made landfall over Newport, Rhode Island shortly before 2 PM. 

Hurricane Bob brought sustained hurricane force winds to the immediate coastal communities of Rhode Island and most of southeast Massachusetts. Strong tropical storm force winds blew across the remainder of the region, with many areas receiving gusts to hurricane force east of the Connecticut River. Wind damage to trees and utility poles was common and resulted in numerous power outages. Over 60 percent of the residents across southeast Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts lost power. Damage was also extensive to apple and peach orchards across these areas.

Coastal communities bore the brunt of the storm, with sustained winds between 75 to 100 mph. Peak wind gusts to 125 mph were recorded on Cape Cod in the towns of Brewster and North Truro, as well as in Wethersfield, Connecticut. The highest sustained wind of 100 mph, was recorded in North Truro. Block Island reported sustained winds of 90 mph, with gusts in excess of 105 mph (maximum speed of equipment). Wind gusts to near 100 mph were recorded in Newport and by the Navy Ship Samuel B. Roberts, which was riding out the storm on the east passage between Newport and Jamestown, Rhode Island. Additionally, there were four reports of tornadoes as Bob came ashore. The lowest barometric pressure was recorded by the USS Valdez while in the east passage of Narragansett Bay, with a reading of 28.47 inches.

Hurricane Bob caused a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet along the Rhode Island shore, but drove a surge of 10 to 15 feet into Buzzards Bay. The Buzzards Bay shore east to Cape Cod was hardest hit. The highest surges, of 12 to 15 feet, were observed in Onset, Bourne, Mashpee and Wareham, at the head of Buzzard’s Bay. Cove Road, in Mattapoisett, Massachusetts had 29 of 37 homes destroyed, while Angelica Point, Massachusetts lost 32 of 35 homes along the shore. Boat damage was significant, as many boats were torn from their moorings. Extensive beach erosion occurred along the shore from Westerly, Rhode Island eastward. Some south facing beach locations on Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket islands lost up to 50 feet of beach to erosion.

Significant rainfall of 3 to 6 inches fell across all but southeast Rhode Island and eastward to Cape Cod, where less than 1 inch fell. The heaviest rainfall of over 7 inches affected western Rhode Island and extreme eastern Connecticut. Foster, Rhode Island had the highest amount of rain with 7.01 inches.

Bob was responsible for six deaths in the region, all in Connecticut. Total damage in Southern New England was approximately 680 million dollars.

 


Hazy, Hot and Humid–Not This August

August 19th, 2014 at 12:41 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

It’s been a delightful summer filled with temperate days, cool nights and low humidity…. which means it’s been lacking much of the sultry air New Englanders either love or loathe.  It’s quite a difference from last year–where we had 16 days hit 90° or higher.  So far this year, we’ve managed to climb to 90°+ just three times–all in early July.  And this month, especially, temperatures are running cool.  Through August 18 temperatures at TF Green Airport are running more than 2° below normal, and  14 of the first 18 days of the month have been at or below normal.  temp 1

This morning lows were the coldest so far this month for many areas, including at TF Green where temperatures dipped to 54° at dawn.  temp 3

I don’t expect any significant spells of hot weather heading into the end of August.  Starting on Thursday and lasting into the weekend, temperatures will be below normal again with highs in the 70s and nights in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  And the outlook for the last week of August from the Climate Prediction Center shows continued cool conditions over much of the northern tier of the country.  temp 1


Heavy Rain Moves Across RI /SE MA This Morning

August 13th, 2014 at 7:52 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’ve been watching an incredible flash flood event developing over parts of LI and CT this morning, with more than a foot of rain in Islip, NY on Long Island…. flash flooding has shut down numerous streets and lead to water rescues there.  Check out this photo from the Weather Channel’s Stephanie Abrams:

temp 2

Islip, NY

That band of heavy rain will continue to lift northeast across RI and southeastern MA through the morning and early afternoon.  Our computer models are still indicating the potential for 1-3″ of rain in our area, with isolated higher amounts possible.  Here’s one look at potential rainfall totals from the RPM model this morning.  temp 3


Flash Flood Watch Expanded

August 12th, 2014 at 12:49 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The National Weather Service has expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include all of RI and southeastern MA except for the Cape and Islands as our computer models continue to show the potential for heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms with a potent storm system moving through New England on Wednesday.

temp 1

We are still forecasting 1-3″ of rain for most of our area, though isolated higher amounts are possible.  Here’s the 12z RPM model precipitation forecast for rainfall totals:  temp 2

In addition, our coastline is now under a “Coastal Flood Advisory” for the potential for minor flooding during tomorrow mornings high tide around 10am-11am.  The combination of an astronomical high tide and a strong southeast wind could cause minor splash over at south and east facing coastlines. temp 3


Wednesday Storm Update

August 12th, 2014 at 9:47 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’ll squeeze in one more dry day before a storm system moves in and brings heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms to our area starting later tonight and into Wednesday.  We could certainly use the rainfall as parts of our area have been abnormally dry; however, the rain could be heavy enough to overwhelm storm drains leading to localized street and poor drainage flooding along with smaller stream flooding.

The highest risk of seeing flash flooding is across inland parts of southern New England, where rainfall rates of up to 2″/hr are possible. As of this morning, northwest RI and the Boston suburbs were included in a “Flash Flood Watch” for late tonight through Wednesday evening.  temp 1It looks like our best shot of getting widespread rain and thunder will be from mid-morning through late afternoon. In addition, there’s the risk–though small–for some severe thunderstorms.  This morning, the Storm Prediction Center highlighted southern RI and SE MA as an area that could see severe weather tomorrow–with damaging wind gusts and even an isolated tornado possible. temp 1

Finally, we could see some minor flooding along the coast and bay during tomorrow morning’s high tide. High tide in Newport Harbor is at around 10:30am.  The astronomically high tide due to the nearly full moon, combined with a stiff southeast wind may lead to minor flooding.  temp 2


Stormy Day on Wednesday

August 11th, 2014 at 11:21 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As Pete Mangione mentioned  in the previous blog, the ingredients are coming together for a potentially stormy day on Wednesday.  An area of low pressure currently over the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through New England by Wednesday with a new storm developing along the front.

Surface Map valid at 8am Wednesday

Forecast Surface Map for 8am Wednesday

The set up gives us the potential for periods of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms.  Right now the forecast is for as much as 1-2.5″ of rain in New England.

Forecast Rainfall Amounts for Wednesday

Forecast Rainfall Amounts for Wednesday

Heavy rain could lead to localized street and poor drainage flooding, and potentially some dangerous flash flooding.  In addition, any embedded thunderstorms will bring torrential downpours and possibly damaging winds.  Timing of the heaviest rainfall in Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts looks to be Wednesday morning and afternoon…. tapering off in the evening.  Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor this potential severe weather day.


Bertha Becomes 2nd Hurricane of the Season

August 4th, 2014 at 11:05 am by under General Talk

Bertha has strengthened, becoming the 2nd hurricane of the 2014 season as it moves away from the Bahamas.  temp 1

As of 11am, sustained winds were near 80mph with gusts to near 100mph… making it a Category 1 hurricane.  The forecast track has remained consistent, with the storm tracking far off-shore, sparing the east coast of a landfall.  temp 2However, the storm is expected to churn up the seas as it passes several hundred miles southeast of Nantucket Tuesday night.  The main impacts from the hurricane will be in the form of highs surf and dangerous rip currents for beach goers on Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, 5-8ft swells are expected in coastal waters by late Tuesday night and conditions will be dangerous for mariners traveling east of Nantucket.    temp 3


Forecast Change for the Better Today

July 24th, 2014 at 9:07 am by under General Talk

All week we’ve been talking about a cold front slowing down as it moved off the southern New England coast today… well, there’s some good news!  Instead of the front pestering us with lingering clouds and showers… it looks like it will move just far enough away for the dry air to win out.  That means a pretty nice Thursday.  It won’t be as hot or as humid with partly sunny skies.  There’s just a small chance of a brief shower, but most of us should stay dry through the day.  I hope you can get out and enjoy the day. temp 1


Flash Flood Warning in Effect Until 10:30am.

July 16th, 2014 at 7:59 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Flash Flood warning has been issued for parts of RI and SE MA for much of RI and into parts of Bristol County in MA.  A Flash flood warning means that flash flooding is occuring or imminent.  This line of strong thunderstorms has brought torrential rainfall with rates of 2-3″/hr.  Street and poor drainage flooding is likely along with some smaller stream flooding.  temp 1


Today’s the Day

July 16th, 2014 at 7:10 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Today’s the day that RI and southeastern MA will have the highest risk of showers and thunderstorms due to a slow-moving cold front.  It’s a front that’s been sparking nasty storms across New England since Sunday evening and today it will FINALLY move through southeastern New England and then eventually off-shore.  We’ve been able to dodge most of the storms over the last few days, but today I think our luck runs out.  Since the front is approaching RI and southeastern MA (and eventually moving over us), we have a high chance of seeing rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the day.  In fact, we’ve already been dealing with downpours for the morning commute.

The main concern today continues to be the potential for FLASH FLOODING.  The Flash Flood watch is in effect until 2pm.  Tropical downpours will be off and on through the day with rainfall rates of up to 1-2″ per hour possible.  That sort of deluge can cause typically prone spots to quickly flood, making travel difficult.  The threat of severe storms is a bit lower than the last few days, but we could certainly see some embedded stronger thunderstorms with frequent lightning and isolated damaging wind gusts.

 


The Beat Goes On…

July 15th, 2014 at 8:59 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The same steamy air mass and slow moving cold front that brought some showers and thunderstorms to New England on Monday is still affecting our weather today.  And the risk for severe storms continues.  The storm prediction center is continuing to highlight western New England as the area most at risk of seeing storms with damaging winds and heavy rain develop.  The high-resolution RPM model is showing that area to be one to watch by early-mid afternoon.

temp1

RPM Model for 2pm Tuesday

There is even a slight chance of an isolated tornado spinning up in one of these thunderstorms today.  In southeastern New England, the risk of severe weather will be lower, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see some nasty storms later today.  Any storms that develop in western New England will need to be carefully monitored as they move east towards the RI border during the afternoon and evening.

Our area will see more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms late tonight and Wednesday as the cold front finally moves through southeastern New England.  We’re at risk of torrential downpours and gusty winds during Wednesday morning’s commute with localized street and poor drainage flooding potentially leading to a slow commute.   temp 2

The rain will taper off from west to east through the late afternoon and evening, with drier weather finally returning by Thursday.


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Severe Storms Possible Today

July 14th, 2014 at 5:27 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Our area has been placed under a “slight” risk for severe storms today by the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK.

Severe T'Storm Outlook

Severe T’Storm Outlook

temp3

Wind Damage Potential

As the Pinpoint Weather Team has been stating over the last few days… our atmosphere will be primed for strong to severe storms to pop-up over the next few days.   As for today… humidity will build and some peeks of hazy sun should allow for the atmosphere to become unstable… as a piece of energy in the upper-levels lifts through southern New England it will act as the focus for storms to begin developing through the afternoon.  Torrential downpours and damaging winds are the biggest concerns with these storms.

temp2

Tornado Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has also placed areas just to our southwest under a slight (2%) risk of a tornado.

Locally, the National Weather Service office in Taunton has issued a “FLASH FLOOD WATCH” for Connecticut and Western MA. These areas are most at risk of seeing rounds of thunderstorms that could contain very heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.  Some storms could dump up to 3″+ of rain over the next few days.

temp 1

The risk of flash flooding will likely spread east into RI/SE MA, especially later Tuesday into early Wednesday.

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Microburst Confirmed in Boston Suburb Monday Evening

July 8th, 2014 at 12:43 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The National Weather Service storm survey team says it was a powerful microburst that caused the wind damage in the Boston suburb of Bedford around 5:45pm yesterday.  A severe thunderstorm hit the area during the evening rush hour, carving a path of damage across the center of Bedford that was 2.5 miles long, and a half mile wide, uprooting trees and power lines.  The storm survey team estimates winds were 90-100mph in the microburst, which leads to straight line wind damage.

Microburst Diagram

Microburst Diagram

The storm blew down and uprooted approximately 50-70 trees–most of them were healthy pine trees towering some 100ft high! Some of the trees landed on houses and caused significant damage.  Here are some pictures from storm spotters in Massachusetts yesterday.

Woburn, MA

Woburn, MA

Winchester, MA

Winchester, MA

Lunenberg, MA

Lunenberg, MA

Despite many images of what appeared to be a funnel cloud in the Medford and Malden areas around 6pm, there were no eyewitness reports of any tornadoes.

While the heat and humidity build this afternoon, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can’t be ruled out… though we don’t expect the activitiy to be as widespread as yesterday around Boston.  Here’s where the NOAA Storm Prediction Center is indicating the highest risk of severe storms will be–with damaging winds being the biggest threat.

 

temp 1

Severe Thunderstorm Potential

Probability of a Tornado

Probability of a Tornado

Probability of Wind Damage

Probability of Wind Damage

 

 


Arthur Just 8th July Cyclone on Record for New England

July 7th, 2014 at 12:55 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

History shows just how rare it is for New England to see impacts from a tropical system in July.  According to the Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC), Arthur was just the 8th time since 1900.  temp 2

Arthur dumped more than 8″ of rain in parts of New Bedford and an average of 2-4″ across  RI.  In addition, tropical storm force winds were recorded on Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. temp 1

The NERFC says other notable July cyclones in our area were:

Bertha on July 13, 1996 and Brenda or July 30, 1960

 


Arthur Could be a Category 2 Hurricane as it Hits the Outer Banks

July 3rd, 2014 at 12:11 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New information in from the National Hurricane Center shows that Hurricane Arthur continues to intensify.  As of 11am, sustained winds had reached 90mph with gusts up to 115mph.  Outer rain bands were working their way on shore in North Carolina and the storm is now forecast to reach Category 2 status as it hits the Outer Banks of North Carolina tonight.  temp 3Meanwhile… the storm is still expected to track 50-100miles off-shore, with heavy rain and rip currents the main impacts in southeastern New England.  Timing remains on track with the heaviest of the rain Friday afternoon and evening.

In the short term, hot, humid air and hazy sun are helping to fuel thunderstorms popping up along and ahead of a slow moving cold front.  The storm prediction center is highlighting parts of western and central New England as areas that could see more severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  temp 1

Heavy rain, frequent lightning and damagin winds are the main concerns with these storms today.  If you are planning on outdoor activities today and tonight, keep an eye to the sky for changing weather conditions as our area could see a few isolated strong storms, too.  Most of the day should stay dry, though.

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Arthur Continues to Strengthen

July 3rd, 2014 at 11:26 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data in from NOAA and Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that Hurricane Arthur has strengthened further this morning with sustained winds near 80mph and gusts to nearly 100mph.   temp 2

Additional strengthening is expected through the day as the storm moves northeast towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Our computer models continue to indicate that Arthur stays well southeast of RI and Southeastern MA.  temp 3

As tropical moisture from Arthur interacts with a cold front sitting over southern New England we are looking at a rainy 4th of July–especially in the afternoon and evening.  Here’s the latest on what to expect for our area.  temp 1

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Arthur Now a Hurricane

July 3rd, 2014 at 5:13 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Arthur has strengthened into a hurricane early this morning–the 1st of the 2014 Hurricane season.  There have been no major changes to the track or intensity forecast for this storm.  Arthur is still expected to track around 50-100miles south and east of Nantucket.

Here’s the latest bulletin from the National hurricane Center:

BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 …ARTHUR NOW A HURRICANE… …EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…

INFORMATION ———————————————-

LOCATION…31.3N 79.1W ABOUT 340 MI…545 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA…PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK —————————— AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE… NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS…2 TO 4 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS…2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA…1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA…1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS.

RAINFALL…

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

SURF…

SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…

PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ————- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN


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Arthur Nears Hurricane Strength Overnight

July 3rd, 2014 at 3:34 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 2am, Tropical Storm Arthur was near hurricane strength with sustained winds of 70mph.  An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft was investigating the storm now and it could become a hurricane soon.   The storm is moving north at about 8mph and is still more than 300mi southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC.  Arthur is expected to start moving to the north-northeast today and increase it’s forward speed, approaching the coast of NC late Thursday night/Friday morning.  Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center of the storm.  As we’ve continued to mention, Arthur makes it’s closest pass to us late Friday night/Saturday morning, bringing a period of heavy rain and rough seas to our area.  Depending on the track and intensity of the storm, there could also be a brief period of Tropical Storm Force winds over Eastern MA and possibly part of the RI coast.

Look for more info to come through the morning… the next update from the National Hurricane Center will be at 5am.


11am Update from NHC brings TS Warnings to NC Coast

July 2nd, 2014 at 11:25 am by under General Talk

The 11am update from the National Hurricane Center is in and new Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the North Carolina Coast, which means Tropical Storm conditions are likely there within 24hours.  Meanwhile, Arthur is about 114miles east of Daytona Beach, FL and has maintained 60mph sustained winds.   The strongest winds are on the eastern side of the storm and the cloud pattern is looking rather ragged.  Here are the latest stats and forecast track. temp1

temp 2

The forecast maintains a track near the 40N/70W benchmark about 100mi southeast of Nantucket.


No Way Around It–Holiday Weekend Starts Wet

July 2nd, 2014 at 10:22 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We are continuing to track 2 main players in our weather forecast for the next few days into the weekend–an approaching cold front from the west and Tropical Storm Arthur off the coast of Florida.  The result will be a high chance of rain for your 4th of July, followed by better weather Saturday and Sunday.  temp 2

First the latest on TS Arthur–Arthur strengthened overnight as it moved north at about 5mph.  As of 8am, sustained winds were 60mph with gusts to nearly 70mph.  Additional strengthening is forecast to occur over the next few days and Arthur could become a hurricane by Thursday.  The track from the National Hurricane Center brings Arthur very close to the Outer Banks of NC by Friday morning as a Cat. 1 hurricane and then takes it several hundred miles southeast of Nantucket by late Friday night/early Saturday morning.   On that off-shore track, southern New England would get building seas and dangerous rip currents mostly Friday and Saturday.  temp 1

As for the cold front–it is slowly marching into New England today.  With ultra high humidity and hazy sun, strong to severe thunderstorms will pop up along and ahead of the front in western and northern New England. These storms will be capable of bringing damaging winds and hail, but the biggest issue will likely be the torrential downpours that will be possible.   The front will likely be far enough away through this evening that RI and SE MA stay STORM-FREE…. even Thursday likely won’t be a “washout”.  There will be a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms–mainly by late afternoon and evening.  Some of those storms could be strong with heavy rain and gusty winds.  Our highest chance of seeing widespread showers and thunderstorms will come, unfortunately, on July 4th as the front finally crawls into RI and MA.  The rain could be heavy at times with some localized flooding possible.  The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting as much as 1-2″+ of rain by Friday night in our area… with 3″+ totals just off to our east.  If the storm ends up tracking closer those higher amounts will be possible.  temp 1Bottom line is that it is almost certain that you’ll see some rain on July 4th.  Stay tuned for updates!


TD #1 Could Become a Hurricane in the Next Few Days

July 1st, 2014 at 9:26 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Tropical Depression #1 has been nearly stationary off the coast of Florida this morning with sustained winds of 35mph.  As we monitor it for signs of better organization and intensification today, the forecast from the National Hurricane Center has changed a bit.  As of the 5am update, the NHC is now forecasting TD #1 to become Tropical Storm “Arthur” later today and then to be a category 1 hurricane as it moves southeast of New England Friday night.  temp 1What does that mean for our weather?  Well, the storm is still expected to remain off-shore, so on this track a “HIGH IMPACT” from a hurricane is unlikely.  However, it WILL play a role in our weather.

As we mentioned yesterday, a cold front will move into the northeast on Thursday and Friday and interact with tropical moisture steaming northward from “Arthur”.  That will lead to potential rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms, especially from Thursday night to Friday afternoon in RI and SE MA.  The eventual track and timing of  “Arthur” will determine whether we can dry out in time for fireworks displays on Friday evening or if the downpours will continue into Friday night.  Several overnight computer models kept rain going near the coast and Cape late into Friday night.   The rest of the weekend looks much better with dry skies Saturday and Sunday and much less humid conditions behind the cold front.  In addition to any showers and thunderstorms, we’re also likely to see “Arthur” churn up our seas, leading to high surf at the beaches from late week into the weekend.  It’s good news for surfers, but will likely lead to dangerous rip currents for swimmers.temp 2Make sure to stay tuned for more updates on the holiday weekend weather as changes in the track and timing of Arthur could lead to adjustments in the forecast.


Thunderstorm Threat Late Week

June 30th, 2014 at 11:49 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

While the weather is tranquil on this Monday, it’s a busy day in the Pinpoint Weather Center as we track potential thunderstorms around the 4th of July as well as what’s brewing off of the Florida coast.  TJ has a great blog on what to watch with the tropics and potential development of Tropical Storm Arthur, but I want to hit on the thunderstorm threat for July 3 and Independence Day July 4– 2 very busy days for outdoor events, fireworks and parades.

A cold front that is in the nation’s midsection today is going to be moving into New England by Wednesday and then off-shore on Friday.  As the front marches east, heat and humidity will build next few days on a southwest wind.  Very soupy air will be in place by Wednesday… making our atmosphere primed for thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the front.  As of this morning, it looks like most of the storms will still be to our west on Wednesday–in central/western New England.  But by Thursday, scattered thunderstorms  are likely to move into RI/SE MA.

temp 2

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Rainy and Raw Today, Flood Watch Tonight

April 30th, 2014 at 9:18 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

The storm system that’s brought severe weather to southern states this week is finally making its way into New England.  But instead of severe storms (too chilly and raw for them) we are going to see a cold rain.

 

Here’s what to expect for this dreary Wednesday:

 

RAINFALL:  Off/on through today and then turning steadier and heavier tonight into Thursday morning.  Rainfall totals of 1-2” expected.  Rain will taper off through the afternoon on Thursday with some peeks of late day sun late day tomorrow.

 

FLOOD WATCH: A flood watch is in effect from this evening through tomorrow afternoon for much of RI.  The main concern will be street and poor drainage flooding.

temp 2

TEMPERATURES:  Nasty today… staying in the 40s through the day with wind chills in the 30s…. feels more like early March than the last day of April.  Temperatures will begin rising overnight and will be in the 50s by dawn Thursday and then into the 60s by Thursday afternoon.

 

WINDS:  East winds today will gust to 20mph and then turn more southeast tonight.

 

The good news about this storm is that it will push out the chilly, damp air and bring a return to a milder, more spring-like airmass for the end of the week and the weekend.  Afternoon highs tomorrow will be some 20F warmer than today!  And we’ll stay in the 60s for highs through the weekend.


Raw, Unsettled End to April

April 29th, 2014 at 11:52 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Spring warmth continues to elude us in these final days of April as a damp east-northeast flow off the ocean is keeping southeastern New England cool, cloudy and raw.  In fact, temperatures today are more typical of mid to late March as afternoon highs struggle to hit 50F.  And tomorrow doesn’t look any better.  The winds off of the chilly waters to our east will keep clouds abundant and the air chilly.  While sprinkles are popping up today… some lighter showers will begin to move in tomorrow with steadier and heavier rain expected by Wednesday night.   While spring goes on a brief hiatus in southern New England, much of the rest of the nation is dealing with a big storm system that’s crawling across the country and bringing deadly tornadoes, flooding rains and even some snow!

As of Tuesday at noon, there has been 124 tornadoes and at least 31 deaths from this outbreak of severe weather with another afternoon and evening of intense storms expected in the deep south.   You can see from the Storm Prediction Center the large area of the Ohio Valley and southeastern US that will have the risk of severe thunderstorms today and tonight.temp 1The storm system will continue it’s slow trek towards the east coast, eventually affecting New England by later Wednesday into Thursday.  While severe thunderstorms are not a concern here, we will see some heavier downpours and isolated rumbles of thunder.  The steadiest and heaviest of the rain in RI/SE MA will fall from Wednesday night to Thursday morning with as much as 1-2″ of rain possible.  The main issues will likely be some street and poor drainage flooding.

The good news about the storm is that it will sweep out the chilly air and low clouds and give us a milder finish to the work week.  In fact, we may be well into the 60s by Thursday afternoon with more seasonable temperatures for Friday and the weekend.  temp 2


Strong Front to Bring Soaking Rain, Strong Winds

April 15th, 2014 at 8:18 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

There is going to be a major temperature change over the next 24 hours as a strong cold front sweeps out the warm air from the last few days and replaces it with a much colder air mass.  As that transitions occurs, rain and wind are moving through.  In fact, scattered showers began developing overnight, blocking out the lunar eclipse for southern New England stargazers.  Those scattered showers are continuing to pop-up this morning and into this afternoon ahead of the main area of soaking rain.  Heavier rain is expected to move in by late afternoon and evening and then continue into the night.

Here’s what to expect:

RAIN: 1-2″ with isolated higher totals.

Our area is now under a flood watch until Wednesday morning.  We are mostly concerned with street and poor drainage flooding for this evening, but our swollen rivers and streams will need to be watched for possible flooding if higher rainfall totals occur. temp 1

WIND:  Southerly winds 20-30mph with gusts up to 50mph. 

A Wind advisory is in effect from noon until midnight, when most of the stronger gusts are expected.  Smaller branches and tree limbs could fall leading to isolated power outages.  Minor coastal flooding is possible during this evening’s high tide (around 8:30-9pm) due to the strong southerly winds pushing water to the shoreline. temp 2

TEMPERATURES:  Near 65 this afternoon and then tumbling to near 33 by dawn Wednesday.

Mild air ahead of a strong cold front will keep temperatures above average for one last day.  Even this evening starts mild, with temperatures in the 50s as late as 10pm before rapidly dropping into the 30s once the cold front moves through.  We’ll have to watch northwestern suburbs, where temperatures may fall below freezing for a few hours, with some icy spots possible on untreated surfaces.  temp 1temp 2

 


Heavy Rain this Morning

April 8th, 2014 at 8:14 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heavy rain continues to slow the morning commute with a FLOOD ADVISORY issued for our area until 10am.

temp 1

Rainfall totals near 1″ are likely… the main impacts are localized street and poor drainage flooding along with some rapid rises in smaller streams.  Right now, our major rivers will be very swollen, but should remain below flood stage today.  The Pawcatuck River in Westerly could see some minor flooding by tomorrow morning.  wstr1_hg

Rain will taper off by mid-day with some slow clearing through the afternoon.  A cold front will sweep across our area this afternoon with some slightly cooler, but dry and bright weather for Wednesday and Thursday.  Beyond this morning, our next chance for rain will be Friday into early Saturday.