Michelle Muscatello

Light Snow Returns Tonight

January 29th, 2015 at 9:02 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s been a frigid start to the day.   With the fresh, deep snow pack, light winds and clear skies, the temperatures at 6am in many valleys and sheltered areas were well below zero.  In fact, in some communities is was the coldest morning of the winter season so far!

Thursday 6am Temperatures

Thursday 6am Temperatures

Despite the frigid start, the temperatures this afternoon will recover nicely, with highs temperatures near 30° by 3pm.  And it won’t be nearly as cold tonight.  In fact, our computer models are showing temperatures holding steady or even rising a few degrees after midnight.  That’s as our next weather system moves in.  It’s a clipper system diving across the Great Lakes this morning that will develop into a strengthening coastal low near New England on Friday.  Clouds will thicken through the late afternoon and evening, with a chance of snow developing after midnight.

The snow may mix with rain near the coast and will continue through the day on Friday.

Light Snow, Mixing With Rain for the Morning Commute

Light Snow, Mixing With Rain for the Morning Commute

Snow may still be falling in spots for the evening commute and through late Friday night.

temp 3

Light Snow Continues Friday Evening

In the end, though, accumulations will be minor…. with highest totals northeast of Boston…. and just a coating to 2″ in RI and southeastern MA.

temp 2

Accumulations by Late Friday Night

The active weather pattern continues, with yet another ocean storm for Sunday night and Monday.  There’s still no consensus among our computer models as the to track.  Some model runs are showing the storm  completely missing our area and others are showing it close enough to deliver both accumulating snow as well as some sleet/rain.   It’s a larger storm and will need to be watched as we head into the weekend.  Please continue to check back for updates.


Thursday Morning Update on Weekend Storm

January 22nd, 2015 at 9:09 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Our computer models are still showing an impressive storm off the coast of New England on Saturday and Saturday night.  For the first time this winter, ingredients are coming together for a winter storm, complete with accumulating snow and strong north-northeasterly winds to impact New England.  The storm looks to rapidly intensify as it passes southeast of Nantucket, with some of the model guidance showing the pressure dropping an impressive 40mb in just 24hours.  That’s what meteorologists call “bombogenesis” (when a storm’s pressure falls at least 24mb in 24hrs).

As Pete Mangione blogged about yesterday, despite the intensity of the storm, we’re not sold on a “blockbuster” winter storm with “major” snowfall totals.  The reason is that there is not a lot of cold air to work with.  It’s likely that temperatures will be warm enough for at least some of the storm to fall as rain during the day Saturday.  When we do get snow it will be heavy and wet.  Right now the best chance of accumulating snow will come Saturday evening and night.

There are also still questions about the storm track.  A storm that tracks closer to the coast would bring in warmer air and support more rain mixing in… while a farther away track will lead to more snow.  It it tracks too far south, though, we could just get “grazed” by the storm.

temp 2

Based on the latest data I’ve been looking at this morning, it’s likely that parts of our area will see enough snow to plow and shovel.  Right now, the best shot at that will be north and west of Providence, with lesser amounts due to a longer period of rain near the coast.  temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

It’s still too early to give out exact numbers with so many variables still up in the air, but I’m leaning towards less than 6″ of snow with this storm.

In addition, winds will strengthen through Saturday, especially near the coast.  Winds could gust 45-55mph by Saturday night at the shore.  While not a widespread issue, we may see isolated power outages where the gusty winds combine with the heavy, wet snow weighing down tree limbs and power lines.


Weekend Storm Potential

January 20th, 2015 at 12:49 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s been a relatively quiet winter so far, with either wind-swept rain storms or minor bouts of snow (just 4.2″ total snow at TF Green since December 1 ).  Is that finally going to change?  That’s the big question…. and our computer models are at least giving us something to watch for the weekend.

First up… it’s “same old same old” with another low pressure center mostly missing our area mid-week… delivering a batch of clouds and snow showers/flurries late Wednesday night into Thursday.  Little to no accumulation is expected with this.

The storm that is of more interest is a system that could develop in the Gulf of Mexico before moving off the mid-Atlantic coastline Saturday morning and passing southeast of Nantucket by Saturday evening/night.  There’s still a lot of uncertainty with the track, intensity and timing of the storm… but the computer models have trended closer and stronger over the last 24 hours.

temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

 At this point, I wouldn’t get too excited as it could pass well out to sea, but it does need to be monitored in the coming days.  Depending on the track, we could also see a mix with or change to sleet and rain in RI and southeastern MA.

And if you’re a fan of the European model… the 00z run overnight had another, even stronger storm impacting our area on Tuesday of next week.  So far, it doesn’t have much support from the other models.

 


Watch for Black Ice This Morning

January 19th, 2015 at 6:43 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Monday morning’s early commute is proving to be very difficult with icy road conditions due to black ice developing.  It’s happening even though temperatures through the night have stayed mostly above freezing.  The cold stretch of weather last week, means that the ground is frozen and so pavement temperatures are at or below freezing. The result has been numerous patches of ice reported across the southern New England.  Use extra caution traveling this morning, go slow and allow for more space than usual between you and the vehicle in front of you.

temp 3

temp 2

The risk of black ice will diminish after 8am this morning as the sun will help to melt the ice and gusty west winds will dry the damp roads.

temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)


Minor Earthquake Felt in Parts of RI Monday Morning

January 12th, 2015 at 7:43 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

People in parts of western Rhode Island awoke this morning to house rattling and ground shaking as a minor earthquake occurred near the RI/CT Border.  The USGS reported a magnitude 3.3 quake just 9 miles west of Coventry, RI at about 6:36am.  temp 3

We’ve received reports of tremors felt in Coventry, West Greenwich, Smithfield, Foster and even the Edgewood section of Cranston.

temp 2

It’s the second minor quake in 4 days in that area.   For more info from the USGS Click here:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usc000tesx#summary


Frigid This Morning, Light Snow on Friday

January 8th, 2015 at 7:38 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Brutally cold start to this morning.   As expected temperatures are running as low as -5 to around 5 near dawn and wind chills have been as low as -15 and -24.    Here are some of the low temperatures in our area: temp 1The wind chill advisory is in effect until 11am.  While dangerous conditions will end, temperatures will only make it into the ‘teens this afternoon and a blustery wind will make it “feel like” (ie: wind chill) 0-10°. temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

The cold will ease, briefly, overnight and Friday as we track a weak disturbance that will deliver light snow to our area.  While we’ll only see snow for a few hours late morning, it could arrive in time to impact the end of the morning commute.  Here’s the RPM model’s take on the timing for the arrival of the light snow.  temp 2

We’re not expecting any more than a coating to 2″ of snow by the time it moves out (~11am), but you’ll need to watch for some slick travel conditions.  temp 3


Dangerous Wind Chills by This Evening

January 7th, 2015 at 9:05 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’re watching an arctic front march into the northeast today, bringing with it the coldest air of the season and dangerously cold wind chills.  For southern New England, the front moves through during the afternoon.  As it does, 1) winds strengthen, 2) a snow squall may briefly reduce visibility and coat roads with a fresh dusting of snow and 3) the temperatures will tumble.  The Wind Chill Advisory for southern New England is for 5pm this evening through 10am on Thursday.  It’s during that time that wind chill values could dip to dangerous levels.  We’re still looking at the potential for wind chills to fall to -15 to -25.

temp 1

As the morning begins Thursday, you’ll want to use common sense and try to limit outdoor activities.  It may take until mid-day for the wind chill to climb back above zero.

Wind Chills Through the Day Thursday

Wind Chills Through the Day Thursday


Wind Chill Watch, Dangerous Cold on the Way

January 6th, 2015 at 8:14 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

While temperatures on this Tuesday morning are quite cold, the worst is yet to come.  An arctic front that’s making headlines as it moves across the central and east part of the US won’t move into New England until late tomorrow. That’s when our weather will go from “uncomfortably cold” to potentially “dangerously cold“.  In fact, wind chills well below zero are likely from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.  Northwestern RI is now under a “wind chill watch” for that time, due to the potential of wind chills -20° to -30°.  temp 1Exposed skin can freeze in 30min in these conditions. For the remainder of RI, wind chills -10° to -20° likely.  Our computer models are showing that not only does arctic air move in, gusty winds to 30mph are likely.  It’s that combination which will create the brutal cold feel.  Here’s a looks at the latest RPM model’s projected wind chills Wednesday evening: temp 2

and early Thursday morning.

temp 3

Wind Chills at 6am Thursday

By Thursday afternoon, diminishing winds and temperatures in the ‘teens will bring wind chill values back up above zero.  temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

You’ll want to keep up to date on the latest weather conditions and school delays during this time:

Detailed 7-Day Futurecast

Pinpoint Closing Network

Current Conditions


Wind Advisory Today, Cold Air Moving In

January 5th, 2015 at 6:45 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After yesterday’s mild, rainy and foggy conditions, big changes are coming this week.  Much colder air is moving in on a strong west wind.  Winds pick up early this morning and will stay blustery through the day.  A Wind Advisory has been issued for our area, due to the potential for some west gusts as high as 40-50mph.  Winds of that strength could lead to isolated wind damage and/or power outages.  I don’t expect any widespread issues due to the wind, but a few wind damage reports are possible.

temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

Wind Advisory Monday

 Those winds will bring the cold air into southeastern New England through the day, with temperatures dropping from the upper 30s this morning to the upper 20s this afternoon.  The wind chill will be quite cold…. with “feel like” temperatures in the ‘teens this afternoon and evening.

temp 2

Forecast Wind Chills by 5pm this Evening

We’re also keeping an eye on Lake Effect snow showers down wind of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie.  Most of these will dry up as the push through far western New England, but a few may stretch as far east as RI and southeastern MA this afternoon and evening.  Any snow showers that develop could lead to briefly reduced visibility and slick spots on area roads.  Most of the day looks dry.  This is a look at the HRRR model valid at 5pm today… showing a few snow showers possibly in our area.

temp 2

HRRR Model at 5pm Monday

temp 1

Overnight Low Temperatures Monday Night

Any snow showers will taper off this evening with diminishing winds and cold temperatures overnight.  Late night lows will fall well into the ‘teens by dawn tomorrow morning.

 


Cold and Dry for New Year’s Eve

December 30th, 2014 at 8:28 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After having record warmth at Christmas, the cold air is back to ring in the New Year.  We’re waking up this morning to temperatures in the 20s and wind chills in the ‘teens.  I see several reinforcing shots of cold air over the next few days, keeping our temperatures below normal through Friday.

As for New Year’s Eve, plan on layering up if you’re celebrating outdoors.  Temperatures will drop from the 30s in the afternoon to the 20s during the evening/night.  By midnight, with just a few clouds overhear, temperatures should be near 22.  temp 2

The weather looks quiet through this cold snap, with storm-free weather into Saturday morning.  Our next storm system looks to impact our weather Saturday night and Sunday.  Much like what we’ve seen over the last few weeks, the cold air and storm isn’t in synch…. as the storm tracks over the area, its a track that will support mostly rain.  However, there may be enough cold air at the start of the precipitation to allow for a period of snow, sleet or freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.  This is a look at one computer model’s (06z GFS) take on the amount of snow/sleet and rain with the weekend storm system.  temp 3

We’ll have to watch for possible icy roads early Sunday morning before the change to plain rain.  Behind this storm will come more cold air for early January.  Here’s the outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 6-12, with a likelihood of below normal temperatures across the northern half of the nation.  temp 1


Warm, Rainy and Windy Weather Moves In

December 24th, 2014 at 8:05 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s Christmas Eve morning and we’re tracking a storm system that’s going to bring exceptional warmth, heavy rain, gusty winds and even some thunderstorms to the East Coast.  The forecast has remained consistent over the last few days, with temperatures expected to soar to near 60 by tonight, 1-3″ of rain falling and wind gusts to 45mph.

Here’s what’s new this morning:

A WIND ADVISORY has been issued for parts of our area from 10pm tonight throguh 7am on Christmas.  During this time, southerly winds could gust to 45mph, potentially leading to isolated wind damage and/or power outages.  Make sure those holiday decorations are secure before heading to bed tonight.

temp 1

There is also a FLOOD WATCH for this afternoon through Christmas morning.  Moderate to heavy rainfall could lead to localized street and poor drainage flooding.  We DO NOT expect any river flooding.

temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

Plan on a damp and cool morning with rain moving in…. the steadiest and heaviest of the rain will come late today and through tonight.  Once a warm front comes through, our temperatures are expected to soar into the upper 50s and lower 60s.  temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

Santa will be getting soaked by a windswept rain as he rides the sleigh through southern New England tonight.  Southerly winds will be gusting 35-45mph overnight with temperatures near 60.  temp 3


Update on Holiday Travel for Christmas Eve/Christmas day

December 23rd, 2014 at 11:17 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A soaking rain storm will make Santa’s trip into southern New England a soggy one this year, with rain, falling heavy at times, along with gusty southerly winds.  The temperatures will also be unseasonably warm with Christmas morning temperatures near 60.   Not exactly the New England Christmas scene many of us dream of.

temp 3

The light showers have already begun on this Tuesday, with additional off and on light rain and drizzle expected to continue through the afternoon and evening.  Rainfall amounts today will be light (under 1/2″), with the bulk of the rain falling from Wednesday afternoon into early Christmas morning. But it’s not just New England that will be dealing with unsettled weather for Christmas Eve.  A complex storm system will move through the Great Lakes with rounds of rain and gusty winds up and down the East Coast–from Florida to New England.  Temperatures will be warm enough that snow and ice are NOT a concern for most travelers…. Any snow should be confined to the northern Great Lakes. That’s good news—instead of severe travel impacts… it should mostly be minor.  However; anyone who flies on a regular basis knows that it doesn’t take much to slow air travel, especially on one of the busier travel days of the year. Air travelers should expect the major airports on the East Coast (NYC, Philadelphia, DC, etc) to have some delays due to rain, gusty winds and a low clouds deck.

For road/rail travel within New England, the main issue will be for nuisance street and poor drainage flooding.  Rainfall of 1-2″ will be likely within most of southern New England, with isolated 3″ totals possible.

Winds will turn blustery by late on Christmas Eve, with some gusts up to 35-45mph by Christmas Day.  Isolated wind damage and power outages are possible.

temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

RPM Model Forecast Wind Gusts for 2pm Christmas Day


Rain and Wind For Holiday Travels

December 22nd, 2014 at 1:22 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

How does waking up to temperatures near 60° sound on Christmas morning??  Unusual for southern New England–yes! In fact, we could even break some records.  But in addition to the warm temperatures, holiday travelers will have some weather headaches this Christmas, as two areas of low pressure affect southern New England through Christmas Morning.  Damp ocean air was already leading to low clouds and pockets of drizzle and showers this afternoon, with much more rain on the way.  There is no hope for a “white Christmas” from these systems, as they will bring unseasonably warm air into southern New England along with a soaking rain.  In fact, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has southern New England picking up 2-3″ of rain over the next few days.

5 Day Rainfall Through Saturday Morning

5 Day Rainfall Through Saturday Morning

 

Showers will become more widespread as we head into this evening and tonight, with off and on rain and drizzle likely on Tuesday.  The first disturbance will approach southern New England late tonight and Tuesday with rainfall amounts through between 0.5″ and 1″, along with temperatures rising into the upper 40s to near 50.

The more potent storm will bring a widespread soaking and windswept rain Wednesday and Wednesday night.  This storm has the potential to bring 1-3″ of rain and strong southerly wind gusts 35-50mph.  Those southerly winds will push unusually warm air into southern New England, with temperatures in the upper 50s both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  In addition, the Wednesday evening astronomical high tide will combine with the winds to lead to minor splash over flooding at the coast and Narragansett/Buzzards Bays.

WHAT TO EXPECT:

Periods of rain Tuesday through early Christmas Morning

Heaviest Wednesday and Wednesday Night

Strong southerly wind gusts 35-50mph

Minor coastal Flooding Wednesday evening

Models are showing the rainfall ending Christmas morning by about 9am with clearing skies and windy, mild temperatures in the afternoon.


Storm Stalls Over New England through Friday

December 10th, 2014 at 9:13 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The soaking rain and strong winds that made for a miserable day yesterday has moved out, but the storm system responsible for it is still hear.  While it has weakened significantly,  it has stalled over New England and won’t move away until later Friday and early Saturday.  That means our weather will remain unsettled, with damp and dreary conditions through the end of the work week.  Lots of drizzle, mist and scattered showers are expected through the day, with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Rainfall totals should be less than .25″, so additional flooding is not expected. temp 1

Through the day, colder air will get drawn into the low pressure center, and by this evening and tonight both a mix of rain and snow showers are possible.  Temperatures overnight will fall to near freezing, so a few icy spots are possible by dawn.  temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

Thursday will feature another day with an abundance of clouds and a spotty rain or snow shower around.  By Friday, southern New England looks mainly dry, but still mainly cloudy.

Anxious to see sunshine?  Both Saturday and Sunday look storm free and partly sunny.


Another Rain and Wind Storm on the Way for Tuesday

December 8th, 2014 at 7:33 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Despite the very cold air greeting us on this Monday morning, we’re tracking a storm system for Tuesday that will bring a soaking rain and gusty winds to our area.  Most of southern New England is now under a FLOOD WATCH.  The coast is also under a HIGH WIND WATCH, for gusts up to 50mph leading to isolated power outages.  temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

temp 3

A storm will ride up the Mid-Atlantic coast, tracking over southern New England through the day.  It’s a set-up that will bring rain to most of southern New England… the exception will be the potential for heavy, wet snow in far western and northern MA.  While the heaviest rain will end Tuesday evening in RI and southeastern MA, the storm stalls over northern New England bringing additional lighter showers to our area through Wednesday and Thursday.temp 2

TIMING: 

6-9am: Steady rain moves in

10am-5pm:  Heaviest rain and strongest wind

7pm Tuesday through Wednesday: Lingering lighter rain showers

 

IMPACTS:

Localized street flooding in the afternoon and evening

Isolated wind damage and power outages near the coast.


Rain Moves in this Morning, Storm Update

November 26th, 2014 at 7:38 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The overnight computer models have been leaning towards a storm track further west–this track, closer to the coast, is a “warmer” scenario for our area, meaning mostly a cold, windswept rain for RI and Southeastern MA.   Therefore, I’ve adjusted the accumulation amounts.  Areas north and west of Providence will have the rain mix with wet snow/sleet at times this afternoon. Later this evening/tonight rain will change to a period of snow across the rest of RI, but little to no accumulation expected for most of our area. temp 1

 

temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)The leading edge of rainfall from our coastal storm is moving into Rhode Island early this morning… with temperatures holding in the 40s through the night, it is warm enough that “just rain” will fall.  temp 3

The wind advisory area now includes southern RI and southern Bristol County in MA.  Areas south of Providence will see some wind gusts to 40-50mph this afternoon and early tonight.  Isolated power outages and isolated wind damage possible.  temp 3


Rain, Snow, Wind Makes Travel Difficult Wednesday

November 25th, 2014 at 8:53 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’re continuing to track the development of an east coast storm that will create difficult travel conditions from DC to New England on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  As is often the case with early season winter storms…. a variety of precipitation types are expected across Rhode Island and Southeastern MA, making the accumulation forecast challenging.

NEW TODAY: 

WINTER STORM WATCH has been expanded to include western Kent County, RI.  Watch means there is the potential for 6″ or more of snow.  Winter Storm Warning now for western MA, NW CT.  temp 1

HIGH WIND WATCH issued for Block Island and the eastern MA coast, including the Cape and Islands.  Northerly winds late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night could gusts to 60mph. Isolated wind damage and power outages are possible. temp 1

TIMING THE STORM

8am: Rain Overspreading the Area

2PM-10PM  Height of the storm–Heavy Rain/Wet Snow, Strong north-northeast winds

Overnight:  Storm moves out… snow tapers off to a few lingering flurries/sprinkles by morning.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS:

WED. MORNING:  OK–rain moves in and quickly turns steady.  Roadways are “wet”, temperatures in the upper 30s.

WED. AFTERNOON:  Iffy—Rain/snow mix—rain near the coast.  Snowfall could be turning heavy, mainly for northwest RI where snow will start to accumulate by late afternoon.  Near the coast, heavy rain and gusty winds will continue

WED. EVENING:  Poor–snow, wind and rain will be coming down heavy with roadways becoming snow-c0vered and slick and the visibility will be poor at times.

THURSDAY:  Good–Watch for some slick spots early morning with temperatures below freezing, otherwise the day looks dry, chilly and good for heading to Grandma’s.

AMOUNTS:

Our accumulation forecast remains essentially the same from yesterday evening.  Little to no snowfall accumulation near the coast;  1-3″ for areas away from the shore with the highest amounts of 3-6″ expected north and west of I-295.  As Tony mentioned last night there will be a rain/snow line that sets up over southern New England, representing the boundary between snow to the north and rain to the south and east.  That line will likely fluctuate over central RI and Bristol County MA through the afternoon.  The exact track and intensity of the storm will help determine where that line sets up…. accumulation amounts may still need to be adjusted over the next 24 hours, so please check back for updates.

temp 3


Rain and Snow with Wednesday Storm

November 24th, 2014 at 9:18 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The ingredients are coming together for a disruptive coastal storm impacting the East Coast on the busiest travel day of the year. It’s a storm system that could lead to delays from Florida to New England as low pressure tracks up the east coast.   For New England, the exact track of the storm will determine “how much” and “who” sees snow (vs rain).  As of this morning, we have the highest confidence in a plow-able snow across interior CT into Central and Western MA.  That’s were a “Winter Storm Watch” has been issued.  A “Watch” means there is the potential for 6″ or more of snow.  temp 3

There are still some details to be worked out… however, a “miss” is looking unlikely at this point, so people with plans to travel on Wednesday are urged to stay up to date with the forecast.

TIMING:  Rain will start to move into DC by 7am,  and reach the southern New England coast by 10am, with steadier and heavier rain and snow by early afternoon.  Travel conditions in and around New England should be “ok”-though not perfect in the morning and early afternoon and deteriorate after 3pm.   The height of the storm in New England is from 7pm the evening until 5am Thanksgiving morning.  There may be some lingering lighter snow showers on Thanksgiving morning, but the worst will be over.

temp 1

06z GFS Valid at 1pm Thursday 

PRECIPITATION TYPE:  Very tricky with this storm.  Again, the highest confidence of mainly snow will be in western MA and CT, through interior parts of PA/NY, VT and NH.  Across southeastern New England a combination of rain/snow and sleet looks likely with some accumulations possible. temp 2

Near the RI coast east to Cape Cod and the Island, it looks like the precipitation will fall mainly as rain, with little to no accumulations possible.  Subtle shifts in the track will bring more or less snow into our area.  As of this morning, there were still a lot of uncertainties with the track, so it’s too early to say how much snow will fall.  Areas north and west of I-295 have the best shot at enough snow to plow and shovel.

WIND:  Wind will also be an issue with this storm with strengthening northeast and north winds through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Gusts over 35mph are possible and a high wind advisory or warning may be issued.

Please continue to check back in for updates.


Gusty Winds Continue, Rain Tapers off by Mid-Day

November 24th, 2014 at 8:39 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Another Monday morning dealing with wind swept rain and a slow commute.  This time,  it’s a warm front to blame.  Rain has been falling moderate to heavy at times through the morning with 0.5″ to 1″ of rain possible by the time it tapers off around mid-day.  In addition, Rhode Island and southeastern MA has had southerly winds sustained around 15-25mph with gusts up to 45mph.  Wind_Advisory_650x366

It will stay blustery through the afternoon, with just a few lingering lighter showers and mist for the trip home from school and work.  Temperatures are very mild through the day… in the 50°s this morning and 60°s this afternoon.  The record for today is 73° from 1979.  temp 1

Winds will stay blustery through Tuesday, with mild temperatures (near 60° at lunchtime) and then starting to cool through the late afternoon and night.  Much colder air moves in just in time for a coastal storm to impact the East Coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Check out the latest blogs for more on the forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night.


Flash Flood Watch 3pm to 11pm

November 17th, 2014 at 11:45 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Add a FLASH FLOOD WATCH to the high wind advisories and warnings that are in effect for southern New England from late this afternoon through this evening.  As we continue to track an area of low pressure and strong cold front approaching southern New England,  Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, except for the islands has the potential to see some flash flooding as “round 2″ of steadier and heavier downpours moves into our area later today.  In addition, as winds pick up, leaves will come down, potentially clogging storm drains and enhancing the street flooding.  With rainfall rates of up to 1″ per hour, urban and poor drainage areas will be prone to localized, brief flooding.  temp 1

While there’s a lull in the rainfall mid-day, it’s a good time to clean out the leaves from nearby storm drains.  temp 2Here’s a look at some of the potential rain totals by midnight.  temp 2


Windswept Rain Storm Today

November 17th, 2014 at 8:50 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s a cold rain falling in southern New England this morning with temperatures in the 30s for most with light to moderate rain.  The good news for commuters is that temperatures are warm enough that there’s no threat of ice or snow here in southern New England.  Our main concerns with this system is localized flooding and strong, damaging winds.

The WIND ADVISORY has been expanded to include ALL OF RHODE ISLAND and northern Bristol County in MA, while the HIGH WIND WARNING is for southern Bristol County (Including Fall River and New Bedford) as well as the Cape and Island.  Winds will pick up this afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front.  As heavier rain and potential isolated thunderstorms draw down stronger winds from aloft, some gusts could reach speeds of 50-60mph.  Isolated wind damage and power outages are possible.  The most likely time to see the stronger gusts is around the evening commute.

temp 3

Weather Alert

 As for the rain…. one batch of steadier rain has been moving through this morning, followed by a brief “lull” mid-day.  Another round of heavy rain and strong winds are likely around the time of the evening commute.  It’s late afternoon through the evening, ahead of a strong cold front when our area could also see a few thunderstorms.  Any t’storms would enhance both the rainfall rate and the wind speeds.  The rainfall accumulation map below is one models idea on where the heaviest rain could fall, but keep in mind, that line of 2″-3″ totals could end up shifting into a different part of southern New England or off-shore.  I’d plan on a healthy 1-1.5″ for most of our area with isolated amounts up to 3″ possible.

temp 2

Potential Rainfall Amounts Through this Evening

 


Snow has Ended, Cold Temperatures Continue

November 14th, 2014 at 8:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A little taste of winter for us early this morning, as snow predawn left a coating to up to 2″ of wet snow on grassy surfaces and car tops.  Here’s a look at the minor snowfall totals for our area: temp 2

By 7:30am the snow was over and the sun was emerging as the back edge of the cloud cover moved out.  The rest of the day looks dry, brisk and bright with a fresh shot of cold air moving in behind this departing area of low pressure.  On a northwest wind, afternoon temperatures will only climb to the low 40s and wind chills will be in the 30s.  temp 3

Cold and dry will be the theme for the weekend…. temperatures begin in the 20s both mornings with Saturday’s high near 40 and only a few degrees warmer than that on Sunday.

Our next storm system on Monday has a track that supports mainly rain.  Check in over the weekend, though, for updates.


Early Friday Commute Could be Messy

November 13th, 2014 at 7:43 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Tomorrow could mark the first snowy commute of the season for our area.  It’s not going to be a lot of snow, but timing is everything, right?!  And the timing for this system could make for  a few headaches for early morning drivers on Friday.  The cold air is settling into southern New England today with dry and mostly sunny skies through the day.  The weather will remain quiet through this evening’s commute, so no worries there.

Things start to change overnight, as a quick-moving system tracks south of southern New England and strengthens as it passes southeast of Nantucket early tomorrow morning.

06z GFS valid at 7am Friday

06z GFS valid at 7am Friday

Initially the precipitation will start as rain, but it changes to wet snow from northwest to southeast late at night (after 2am).  Most of the snow will melt as it hits the (relatively) warm pavement, but it begins to coat grassy surfaces and car tops before dawn.  Our main concern is that a brief period of heavier snow will be possible between 4-7am, leading to small accumulations and perhaps even a slushy coating on roadways.  Any heavier snow will reduce visibility and could make for some slow travel.  temp 1

By late morning, the sun will be emerging as the skies clear and the rest of the day looks dry brisk and cool.

As for accumulations…. most of us end up with a coating to and inch of 2 of snow… again, mostly on grassy surfaces and car tops.  Isolated amounts of up to 3″ possible north of Providence. temp 2

temp 3


Weekend Coastal Storm Update

October 31st, 2014 at 8:33 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Here we go again… another potent coastal storm will be impacting southern New England this weekend…. in fact, our computer models this morning have shifted to a track CLOSER to the coast, which means more rainfall and strong winds for Saturday and Sunday.  Here’s the 06z GFS model showing heavy rain over southeastern New England Saturday afternoon and evening with part 1 of the coastal storm sitting east of Cape Cod.

temp 1

06z GFS Model Valid Saturday 8pm

Rain will be heaviest between noon Saturday and 12am Sunday, with as much as 1-2″ possible in Rhode Island and southeastern MA.  We’re still thinking that Cape Cod and Nantucket see the heaviest rain and highest winds from this evening.

Far eastern MA is also likely to see the strongest winds from this storm… 50mph+ for a few hours on the outer Cape and Nantucket…. further west into RI, wind gusts 35-50mph are possible.  That could lead to some wind damage–including downed limbs and branches and possibly some isolated power outages.  temp 1

temp 3

This is a potentially dangerous situation for mariners–along with 50kt+ wind gusts in the open waters east of MA, seas of 15-20ft are possible.  In Narragansett Bay, a Gale Watch has been issued for Saturday morning through late Sunday night, with waves building to 2-3ft and gusts up to 35kt.

There’s been a lot of buzz about the first snowflakes of the season.  While a few wet flakes are possible by late Saturday Night or early Sunday morning,  it looks like the best shot at snow will be in Maine, where several inches are possible.  Around here, the ground will stay bare.

 


Stalled Storm to Bring Stretch of Unsettled Weather

October 20th, 2014 at 11:55 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It was the coldest morning since last April for much of southern New England with overnight lows falling into the uppers 20s and 30s.  Here’s a look at the low temperatures:

temp 1

The cold dry air that’s in place now, will give way to increasing clouds and moisture as an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes redevelops into an ocean storm that will hug the New England coast as it stalls just off-shore for the next three to four days.  Periods of rain will combine with some gusty winds to make for a gray, damp and dreary stretch of weather.  Based on the latest information, rainfall totals could reach 1-2″ in Rhode Island by the time the storm pulls away on Friday.  temp 1At this point, the storm does not look too severe for our area…. with the heaviest rain, strongest winds and potential coastal flooding hitting further north, but we’ll have to carefully watch as the storm takes shape these next few days.  A shift in the position of the storm could mean more rain and wind here.

The first rain showers are slated to move in late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

temp 1

And the steadiest of the rain could be late Wednesday into Thursday.  Some slow improvements are possible on Friday as the storm drifts further away.


Rainy Day Underway

October 16th, 2014 at 9:10 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A slow moving cold front is combining with unusually muggy air to create some downpours and isolated thunderstorms for today.  Rain has be filling in this morning and additional periods of rain will be likely into the evening.  Our computer models continue to hint at 1″ of rain or more for most of our area, with amounts to 2″ possible for some, especially in any thunderstorms.  temp 2

While severe weather is not expected, isolated wind gusts over 30mph could bring down a few tree limbs or branches. It looks like the main issue, will be trying to drive through the downpours as localized street and poor drainage flooding is possible. It will be a “warm” rain for October standards with temperatures 68-73 through the day.

Rain continues through at least early evening, so if you are headed to the Patriots game at Gillette tonight, plan on wet conditions for tailgating with temperatures in the 60s.  There may still be some leftover showers at the start of the game, but latest data now shows the bulk of the rain falling BEFORE 8pm.  temp 3

 


Storms End this Morning

October 8th, 2014 at 7:29 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s been a busy morning tracking some scattered strong storms over southern New England this morning.  They’ve had a history of heavy rain and frequent lightning along with gusty winds.  In our area, the most intense storm moved across New Bedford and Plymouth around 6:30am this morning, and even had some weak rotation noted on radar.

Radar from 6:25am Wed, 10/8

Radar from 6:25am Wed, 10/8

There was a line of severe thunderstorms that moved through parts of western MA and northern CT causing numerous reports of wind damage, including downed trees and power outages.  Winds greater than 50mph reported.  temp 3

Luckily though, there were no “severe” storms in our area.  And the threat of additional severe storms is quickly winding down.  Additional scattered showers, isolated thunder is possible through 9am before skies becoming sunny and dry across the area.  Plan on a warm afternoon with temperatures in the low and mid 70s.  temp 2

 


Potentially Strong Storms on Wednesday Morning

October 7th, 2014 at 9:14 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heads up for early Wednesday: There’s the potential for some strong to severe storms during the morning commute in southern New England.

A strong cold front will approach southern New England with a line of thunderstorms expected to form along the front…. first affecting places like NYC and then heading east.

Simiulated Radar for Wed.

Simulated Radar for 5am Wed. 10/8

Simulated Radar for 9am Wed. 10/8

Simulated Radar for 9am Wed. 10/8

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Long Island and parts of CT and RI as having a “slight risk” for severe storms, including a small chance (2%) of a weak tornado.  However, it’s more likely that our area could see some damaging straight line wind gusts, torrential downpours and frequent lightning.  temp 1

Probability of a Weak Tornado

Probability of a Weak Tornado

In addition, there could be some minor coastal flooding around the morning high tide, between 8-9am.   A persistent southerly wind will combine with an astronomical high tide, leading to some minor splash-over in the morning along Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay as well as the south coast.


September Was 2nd Driest on Record in RI

October 1st, 2014 at 8:30 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’re beginning October with rain…. something we saw very little of in September.  In fact, with just under 3/4″ of rain for the month at TF Green Airport, it became the 2nd driest September on record for RI.  The driest was 100 years ago– September 1914, when the area received 0.48″ of rain.  For September alone, that leaves us with a more than 3″ rainfall deficit.temp 3

The dry spell is taking its toll.  Last week, the US Drought Monitor upped the classification for most of southeastern New England from “abnormally dry” to “moderate drought”.

temp 2


US Drought Monitor valid September 23, 2014

No doubt, the ground is parched and our rivers and lakes are running very low.  Check out this view of Wordens Pond in Wakefield, RI from Eyewitness News viewer Gina Falcone.  The picture on the left is what the pond usually looks like, with the picture on the right from the past weekend.

Wordens Pond from Gina Falcone

Wordens Pond from Gina Falcone

We need some rainy days this month to help ease the drought conditions, and today will be one.  Periods of rain and drizzle are likely through tonight and early Thursday morning.  We’re hopeful that some areas will see more than 1/2″ of  rain.  A cold front on Saturday will give us another shot at some beneficial rain.  Even though the wet weather may impact your weekend plans, your lawns and gardens will be happy!


Daylight on the Decline

September 23rd, 2014 at 11:58 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Welcome to Autumn!  It’s a great season here in New England, with vibrant colors, sweater (and boots) weather and all things pumpkin.  What’s not to love?!  Well, for many, the shorter days that come with fall.  With the Autumnal Equinox, we mark the time where the sun’s direct rays cross the equator and head into the Southern Hemisphere.  It’s easy to notice with each passing day that the sunrises are getting later and the sunsets earlier.  In fact, we are losing about 3 minutes of daylight each day…. and those minutes quickly add up.

While equinox means “equal night”… that’s not exactly the case as we still have slightly more than 12 hours of daylight the first few days of Autumn.  Enjoy it, because by Saturday our nights will exceed our days for the first time since the start of spring.  And from there, we await the shortest day of the year…. December 21 when we only see the sun for a mere 9 hours and 13 minutes.  The sunset on  that day will be at 4:20pm.

temp 3

Along with the shorter days, inevitably comes the cooler temperatures due to the longer nights and weaker, indirect rays of the sun.  Our average high temperature drops from 72° today, to 58° on November 1 and 41° by December 21.