Another unsettled day is on the way today… with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning.  Those storms should work their way off shore… with, overall, drier skies this afternoon.  However, an addition spot shower or t’storm possible into this evening–mostly for areas northwest of Providence.  It’s going to be another mild and muggy day with highs inland near 70-75.  Clouds may break for a few peeks of hazy sun inland, but clouds should hold firm along the coast.  A cold front will work it’s way through New England late day… there’s some concern that strong or severe thunderstorms could develop along the front in parts of New England.  In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has interior New England under a “slight risk” for severe thunderstorms…. gusty winds are the biggest risk.

Thunderstorm Outlook Today

Probability of Severe Winds >50kt

The Storm Prediction Center even has a very slight risk for a tornado.

Tornado Probability

While southeastern New England is not considered to be in the “at risk” area for severe t’storms…. we’ll have to watch to see how any of those storms to our northwest progress as the track east… “if” the storms were able to maintain the strength, then another gusty thunderstorm would be possible–mainly NW RI this evening.  Most of our computer models show the storms fizzling as they head east towards sunset.  We’ll of course keep you updated!

While my boys aren’t quite old enough to hit the ball field… I am well aware that it is Little League season in southern New England.  Every time I call for scattered showers I get a slew of emails, Facebook posts, and verbal inquiries from viewers, neighbors and co-workers with all the same general question: “Will baseball be cancelled”.  Usually it is said with guilty hopefulness… that although so many of us would give up anything for our kids and encourage them to be involved in after-school activities, we also long for a quiet evening at home.

So will we be able to get in the baseball practices and games today?  It’s tricky… I’m thinking that the widespread showers will arrive between 4-7pm.  That means that some communities may have to postpone the games while others will be able to squeak in the evening’s activities before the skies turn damp.  The showers will overspread the area from west to east, so areas from Westerly to Coventry will see showers a bit earlier than communities closer to Cape Cod.  After dark and through the night, scattered showers are expected.  Here’s the Futurecast for 3pm:

Futurecast at 3PM

Followed up by what the radar could look like by 7pm:

Futurecast at 7PM

Good luck moms and dads, and go team!

After a gorgeous weekend—we hit a high of 78° on Saturday and 81° on Sunday–the unsettled weather has returned.  The radar has been tracking a few widely scattered showers early this morning as a cold front stalls over central and Western MA.  Despite the brief, passing shower in a few communities in southeastern New England, today WON’T be a “washout”.  However, it does mark the beginning of a 3-day stretch of possible showers.  Today, most of the wet weather will stay north and west of our area… focused closer to where the front is stalled:

Shower Threat Today

Locally, we’re looking at a mix of hazy sun and clouds… have the umbrella handy, but most of the day will be dry with highs 68-72.

The greatest chance for showers in RI and southeastern MA will come late on Tuesday into the day on Wednesday… it looks like it will be followed up by a large area of high pressure.  That high will bring a stretch of storm-free, mild weather for late week into the upcoming weekend.

It was such a treat to see the sun shining this morning after another mid-week stretch of dreary weather!  Unfortunately, we won’t keep the clear skies all day.  A weak disturbance will swing through this afternoon…. generating some cloudiness and even possibly a brief, isolated shower… there may be some small hail in the showers.  It’s nothing you need to cancel outdoor plans over… just, perhaps, prepare for a brief 10-15min interruption in your day.

Our temperatures for the weekend have been trending up!  While it will still be a cool start on Saturday morning, full sunshine all day will allow temperatures to warm quickly… with highs climbing into the mid and upper 70s.  As far as Spring days go, this will be close to a perfect 10!  Sunny skies, low humidity and a breezy west-southwest wind.  Sunday is looking pretty good too.  A cold front will inch towards us, and that will turn our skies partly sunny…. while “parts of New England” could see a brief shower, I’m leaning towards a dry day in both RI and southeastern MA.  Enjoy it and happy Mother’s Day to all of the moms out there!

Weekend Futurecast

Here are the rainfall totals as of 7am Thursday:

Rainfall Totals as of 7am Thursday

This slug of rain is helping to ease the local drought conditions… but can you believe it’s not completely ending it??!!  As of midnight, May 10, we still had a more than 6″ precipitation deficit for the year.

Despite that, many of you are telling me, “ENOUGH ALREADY!” with the dreary, cool start to May.  The first 9 days of the month featured average temperatures that were at or below normal!

It does look like our luck is going to change… We’ll finally begin to dry out through the late morning–Thinking between 9-11am–with skies turning partly sunny.  While a stray shower can’t be ruled out for this afternoon or tomorrow afternoon… most of the time it will be dry.

X Factor hopefuls will need more than just talent as they line up outside the Dunkin’ Donuts Center in Providence today and tomorrow… They’ll also need their rain gear!  Periods of rain, heavy at times, this morning will taper to random lighter showers and mist for this afternoon.  It will be muggy with temperatures slowly climbing into the mid 60s.

X Factor Wednesday

Unfortunately for out-of-town visitors, another round of steadier, more widespread rain returns this evening and tonight.  Some of the rain may be heavy at times.  We’ll begin Thursday with lingering showers… but by late morning or early afternoon the skies should begin to dry out… even turning partly sunny! Highs Thursday afternoon are expected to climb to near 70!

X Factor Thursday

Looking at new weather data coming in and at radar returns this afternoon and have sped up the arrival of steadier rain.  I am now thinking that the rain will begin to fill in between 4-7pm… making it a wet evening commute.  Rain will then continue through much of the night and off/on on Wednesday.

This Evening

It’s not going to be as beautiful as it was yesterday, but today won’t be a “washout” either.  We’re looking at a few passing showers this morning… then a lull in the rainfall for most of the afternoon.  It will be cooler, breezy and mainly cloudy with highs 60-64.   Steadier rain will fill into our area for the evening and night as a cold front slowly approaches.  Our futurecast does a nice job today detailing the timing of the showers.

This Morning

This Afternoon

Tonight

The computer models have backed off on how much rain we could see  from Wednesday into early Thursday… with the cold front possibly shifting slightly further east than we were thinking yesterday, the heaviest rain would end up over the ocean waters.  While it wouldn’t take much of a shift to bring some heavier rain over our area,  right now we’re thinking around 1-2″ over parts of the Cape, with up to an inch of rain possible in RI.

The good news–it’s going to be a great start to the work week, with sunshine and mild air–making today the pick of the week!  The bad news–the weather goes downhill starting late tonight/tomorrow, with a stretch of rainy, cool days again this week.

This Afternoon

Temperatures today will range from the upper 60s inland to the low 60s at the shore.  Sunshine should dominate through much of the day.  High pressure continues to control our weather through the daylight hours… but as it shifts out to sea tonight, a slow-moving cold front move towards the East Coast with increasing clouds and scattered showers arriving by tomorrow morning.  The front will stall near our area on Wednesday with a wave of low pressure–a storm center–riding along the front.  That will enhance the rainfall and give us the chance of some locally heavy downpours.  The storm system will slide out to sea late Thursday and Friday with improving conditions by the end of the work week.  This is a look at accumulated rainfall predictions for Monday through Friday:

Potential Accumulated Rain over the Next 5 Days

We are still in a moderate drought according to the US Drought Monitor… and between Tue and Thu we could see a beneficial 2-3″ of rain.

Tony Petrarca isn’t one to pat himself on the back, so I am going to do it for him as we celebrate his 25years at WPRI! Here’s an early picture of Tony…. can I hear a collective “aaaawwww”.

Tony Petrarca

I consider it a privilege to work with Tony at WPRI and to call him a friend.  He is a class act.  He is a true scientist, a weather scholar and a great mentor.  He is passionate about the weather and is always analyzing data, checking conditions and reading up on the latest technology.  It’s not unusual for me to get weather-related emails from Tony at, say, 3am… long after his shift has ended and when most people are sleeping.  To be a successful meteorologist you have to not only be able to analyze weather data… you have to understand how the computer models behave in given weather situations… their biases, weaknesses and strengths. You only get that kind of knowledge from experience or having someone willing to share their experience with you.  In 25yrs, Tony has pretty much experienced it all… and he’s always willing to share his wealth of knowledge with us “younger” meteorologists .

His humor–often self-deprecating–makes him a fun and enthusiastic member of the Eyewitness News Team.  He’s also a great member of the southern New England community… he once told me that he aimed to do 50 school visits a year!  And it almost never fails when I go into a school for a weather presentation I hear, “Tony’s been here, too.”  He’s also sacrificed countless weekends for community events… acting as MC, Auctioneer, Lead Walker or Cheer Captain.

This weekend, he’ll be walking in the Aquidneck Island Police Parade.  So if you see us there, or if you see him around town, make sure to wish him congratulations! And here’s to another 25years of perfectly coiffed hair and accurate forecasts!