Michelle Muscatello

Storm Stalls Over New England through Friday

December 10th, 2014 at 9:13 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The soaking rain and strong winds that made for a miserable day yesterday has moved out, but the storm system responsible for it is still hear.  While it has weakened significantly,  it has stalled over New England and won’t move away until later Friday and early Saturday.  That means our weather will remain unsettled, with damp and dreary conditions through the end of the work week.  Lots of drizzle, mist and scattered showers are expected through the day, with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Rainfall totals should be less than .25″, so additional flooding is not expected. temp 1

Through the day, colder air will get drawn into the low pressure center, and by this evening and tonight both a mix of rain and snow showers are possible.  Temperatures overnight will fall to near freezing, so a few icy spots are possible by dawn.  temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

Thursday will feature another day with an abundance of clouds and a spotty rain or snow shower around.  By Friday, southern New England looks mainly dry, but still mainly cloudy.

Anxious to see sunshine?  Both Saturday and Sunday look storm free and partly sunny.


Another Rain and Wind Storm on the Way for Tuesday

December 8th, 2014 at 7:33 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Despite the very cold air greeting us on this Monday morning, we’re tracking a storm system for Tuesday that will bring a soaking rain and gusty winds to our area.  Most of southern New England is now under a FLOOD WATCH.  The coast is also under a HIGH WIND WATCH, for gusts up to 50mph leading to isolated power outages.  temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

temp 3

A storm will ride up the Mid-Atlantic coast, tracking over southern New England through the day.  It’s a set-up that will bring rain to most of southern New England… the exception will be the potential for heavy, wet snow in far western and northern MA.  While the heaviest rain will end Tuesday evening in RI and southeastern MA, the storm stalls over northern New England bringing additional lighter showers to our area through Wednesday and Thursday.temp 2

TIMING: 

6-9am: Steady rain moves in

10am-5pm:  Heaviest rain and strongest wind

7pm Tuesday through Wednesday: Lingering lighter rain showers

 

IMPACTS:

Localized street flooding in the afternoon and evening

Isolated wind damage and power outages near the coast.


Rain Moves in this Morning, Storm Update

November 26th, 2014 at 7:38 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The overnight computer models have been leaning towards a storm track further west–this track, closer to the coast, is a “warmer” scenario for our area, meaning mostly a cold, windswept rain for RI and Southeastern MA.   Therefore, I’ve adjusted the accumulation amounts.  Areas north and west of Providence will have the rain mix with wet snow/sleet at times this afternoon. Later this evening/tonight rain will change to a period of snow across the rest of RI, but little to no accumulation expected for most of our area. temp 1

 

temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)The leading edge of rainfall from our coastal storm is moving into Rhode Island early this morning… with temperatures holding in the 40s through the night, it is warm enough that “just rain” will fall.  temp 3

The wind advisory area now includes southern RI and southern Bristol County in MA.  Areas south of Providence will see some wind gusts to 40-50mph this afternoon and early tonight.  Isolated power outages and isolated wind damage possible.  temp 3


Rain, Snow, Wind Makes Travel Difficult Wednesday

November 25th, 2014 at 8:53 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’re continuing to track the development of an east coast storm that will create difficult travel conditions from DC to New England on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  As is often the case with early season winter storms…. a variety of precipitation types are expected across Rhode Island and Southeastern MA, making the accumulation forecast challenging.

NEW TODAY: 

WINTER STORM WATCH has been expanded to include western Kent County, RI.  Watch means there is the potential for 6″ or more of snow.  Winter Storm Warning now for western MA, NW CT.  temp 1

HIGH WIND WATCH issued for Block Island and the eastern MA coast, including the Cape and Islands.  Northerly winds late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night could gusts to 60mph. Isolated wind damage and power outages are possible. temp 1

TIMING THE STORM

8am: Rain Overspreading the Area

2PM-10PM  Height of the storm–Heavy Rain/Wet Snow, Strong north-northeast winds

Overnight:  Storm moves out… snow tapers off to a few lingering flurries/sprinkles by morning.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS:

WED. MORNING:  OK–rain moves in and quickly turns steady.  Roadways are “wet”, temperatures in the upper 30s.

WED. AFTERNOON:  Iffy—Rain/snow mix—rain near the coast.  Snowfall could be turning heavy, mainly for northwest RI where snow will start to accumulate by late afternoon.  Near the coast, heavy rain and gusty winds will continue

WED. EVENING:  Poor–snow, wind and rain will be coming down heavy with roadways becoming snow-c0vered and slick and the visibility will be poor at times.

THURSDAY:  Good–Watch for some slick spots early morning with temperatures below freezing, otherwise the day looks dry, chilly and good for heading to Grandma’s.

AMOUNTS:

Our accumulation forecast remains essentially the same from yesterday evening.  Little to no snowfall accumulation near the coast;  1-3″ for areas away from the shore with the highest amounts of 3-6″ expected north and west of I-295.  As Tony mentioned last night there will be a rain/snow line that sets up over southern New England, representing the boundary between snow to the north and rain to the south and east.  That line will likely fluctuate over central RI and Bristol County MA through the afternoon.  The exact track and intensity of the storm will help determine where that line sets up…. accumulation amounts may still need to be adjusted over the next 24 hours, so please check back for updates.

temp 3


Rain and Snow with Wednesday Storm

November 24th, 2014 at 9:18 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The ingredients are coming together for a disruptive coastal storm impacting the East Coast on the busiest travel day of the year. It’s a storm system that could lead to delays from Florida to New England as low pressure tracks up the east coast.   For New England, the exact track of the storm will determine “how much” and “who” sees snow (vs rain).  As of this morning, we have the highest confidence in a plow-able snow across interior CT into Central and Western MA.  That’s were a “Winter Storm Watch” has been issued.  A “Watch” means there is the potential for 6″ or more of snow.  temp 3

There are still some details to be worked out… however, a “miss” is looking unlikely at this point, so people with plans to travel on Wednesday are urged to stay up to date with the forecast.

TIMING:  Rain will start to move into DC by 7am,  and reach the southern New England coast by 10am, with steadier and heavier rain and snow by early afternoon.  Travel conditions in and around New England should be “ok”-though not perfect in the morning and early afternoon and deteriorate after 3pm.   The height of the storm in New England is from 7pm the evening until 5am Thanksgiving morning.  There may be some lingering lighter snow showers on Thanksgiving morning, but the worst will be over.

temp 1

06z GFS Valid at 1pm Thursday 

PRECIPITATION TYPE:  Very tricky with this storm.  Again, the highest confidence of mainly snow will be in western MA and CT, through interior parts of PA/NY, VT and NH.  Across southeastern New England a combination of rain/snow and sleet looks likely with some accumulations possible. temp 2

Near the RI coast east to Cape Cod and the Island, it looks like the precipitation will fall mainly as rain, with little to no accumulations possible.  Subtle shifts in the track will bring more or less snow into our area.  As of this morning, there were still a lot of uncertainties with the track, so it’s too early to say how much snow will fall.  Areas north and west of I-295 have the best shot at enough snow to plow and shovel.

WIND:  Wind will also be an issue with this storm with strengthening northeast and north winds through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Gusts over 35mph are possible and a high wind advisory or warning may be issued.

Please continue to check back in for updates.


Gusty Winds Continue, Rain Tapers off by Mid-Day

November 24th, 2014 at 8:39 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Another Monday morning dealing with wind swept rain and a slow commute.  This time,  it’s a warm front to blame.  Rain has been falling moderate to heavy at times through the morning with 0.5″ to 1″ of rain possible by the time it tapers off around mid-day.  In addition, Rhode Island and southeastern MA has had southerly winds sustained around 15-25mph with gusts up to 45mph.  Wind_Advisory_650x366

It will stay blustery through the afternoon, with just a few lingering lighter showers and mist for the trip home from school and work.  Temperatures are very mild through the day… in the 50°s this morning and 60°s this afternoon.  The record for today is 73° from 1979.  temp 1

Winds will stay blustery through Tuesday, with mild temperatures (near 60° at lunchtime) and then starting to cool through the late afternoon and night.  Much colder air moves in just in time for a coastal storm to impact the East Coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Check out the latest blogs for more on the forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night.


Flash Flood Watch 3pm to 11pm

November 17th, 2014 at 11:45 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Add a FLASH FLOOD WATCH to the high wind advisories and warnings that are in effect for southern New England from late this afternoon through this evening.  As we continue to track an area of low pressure and strong cold front approaching southern New England,  Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, except for the islands has the potential to see some flash flooding as “round 2″ of steadier and heavier downpours moves into our area later today.  In addition, as winds pick up, leaves will come down, potentially clogging storm drains and enhancing the street flooding.  With rainfall rates of up to 1″ per hour, urban and poor drainage areas will be prone to localized, brief flooding.  temp 1

While there’s a lull in the rainfall mid-day, it’s a good time to clean out the leaves from nearby storm drains.  temp 2Here’s a look at some of the potential rain totals by midnight.  temp 2


Windswept Rain Storm Today

November 17th, 2014 at 8:50 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s a cold rain falling in southern New England this morning with temperatures in the 30s for most with light to moderate rain.  The good news for commuters is that temperatures are warm enough that there’s no threat of ice or snow here in southern New England.  Our main concerns with this system is localized flooding and strong, damaging winds.

The WIND ADVISORY has been expanded to include ALL OF RHODE ISLAND and northern Bristol County in MA, while the HIGH WIND WARNING is for southern Bristol County (Including Fall River and New Bedford) as well as the Cape and Island.  Winds will pick up this afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front.  As heavier rain and potential isolated thunderstorms draw down stronger winds from aloft, some gusts could reach speeds of 50-60mph.  Isolated wind damage and power outages are possible.  The most likely time to see the stronger gusts is around the evening commute.

temp 3

Weather Alert

 As for the rain…. one batch of steadier rain has been moving through this morning, followed by a brief “lull” mid-day.  Another round of heavy rain and strong winds are likely around the time of the evening commute.  It’s late afternoon through the evening, ahead of a strong cold front when our area could also see a few thunderstorms.  Any t’storms would enhance both the rainfall rate and the wind speeds.  The rainfall accumulation map below is one models idea on where the heaviest rain could fall, but keep in mind, that line of 2″-3″ totals could end up shifting into a different part of southern New England or off-shore.  I’d plan on a healthy 1-1.5″ for most of our area with isolated amounts up to 3″ possible.

temp 2

Potential Rainfall Amounts Through this Evening

 


Snow has Ended, Cold Temperatures Continue

November 14th, 2014 at 8:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A little taste of winter for us early this morning, as snow predawn left a coating to up to 2″ of wet snow on grassy surfaces and car tops.  Here’s a look at the minor snowfall totals for our area: temp 2

By 7:30am the snow was over and the sun was emerging as the back edge of the cloud cover moved out.  The rest of the day looks dry, brisk and bright with a fresh shot of cold air moving in behind this departing area of low pressure.  On a northwest wind, afternoon temperatures will only climb to the low 40s and wind chills will be in the 30s.  temp 3

Cold and dry will be the theme for the weekend…. temperatures begin in the 20s both mornings with Saturday’s high near 40 and only a few degrees warmer than that on Sunday.

Our next storm system on Monday has a track that supports mainly rain.  Check in over the weekend, though, for updates.


Early Friday Commute Could be Messy

November 13th, 2014 at 7:43 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Tomorrow could mark the first snowy commute of the season for our area.  It’s not going to be a lot of snow, but timing is everything, right?!  And the timing for this system could make for  a few headaches for early morning drivers on Friday.  The cold air is settling into southern New England today with dry and mostly sunny skies through the day.  The weather will remain quiet through this evening’s commute, so no worries there.

Things start to change overnight, as a quick-moving system tracks south of southern New England and strengthens as it passes southeast of Nantucket early tomorrow morning.

06z GFS valid at 7am Friday

06z GFS valid at 7am Friday

Initially the precipitation will start as rain, but it changes to wet snow from northwest to southeast late at night (after 2am).  Most of the snow will melt as it hits the (relatively) warm pavement, but it begins to coat grassy surfaces and car tops before dawn.  Our main concern is that a brief period of heavier snow will be possible between 4-7am, leading to small accumulations and perhaps even a slushy coating on roadways.  Any heavier snow will reduce visibility and could make for some slow travel.  temp 1

By late morning, the sun will be emerging as the skies clear and the rest of the day looks dry brisk and cool.

As for accumulations…. most of us end up with a coating to and inch of 2 of snow… again, mostly on grassy surfaces and car tops.  Isolated amounts of up to 3″ possible north of Providence. temp 2

temp 3


Weekend Coastal Storm Update

October 31st, 2014 at 8:33 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Here we go again… another potent coastal storm will be impacting southern New England this weekend…. in fact, our computer models this morning have shifted to a track CLOSER to the coast, which means more rainfall and strong winds for Saturday and Sunday.  Here’s the 06z GFS model showing heavy rain over southeastern New England Saturday afternoon and evening with part 1 of the coastal storm sitting east of Cape Cod.

temp 1

06z GFS Model Valid Saturday 8pm

Rain will be heaviest between noon Saturday and 12am Sunday, with as much as 1-2″ possible in Rhode Island and southeastern MA.  We’re still thinking that Cape Cod and Nantucket see the heaviest rain and highest winds from this evening.

Far eastern MA is also likely to see the strongest winds from this storm… 50mph+ for a few hours on the outer Cape and Nantucket…. further west into RI, wind gusts 35-50mph are possible.  That could lead to some wind damage–including downed limbs and branches and possibly some isolated power outages.  temp 1

temp 3

This is a potentially dangerous situation for mariners–along with 50kt+ wind gusts in the open waters east of MA, seas of 15-20ft are possible.  In Narragansett Bay, a Gale Watch has been issued for Saturday morning through late Sunday night, with waves building to 2-3ft and gusts up to 35kt.

There’s been a lot of buzz about the first snowflakes of the season.  While a few wet flakes are possible by late Saturday Night or early Sunday morning,  it looks like the best shot at snow will be in Maine, where several inches are possible.  Around here, the ground will stay bare.

 


Stalled Storm to Bring Stretch of Unsettled Weather

October 20th, 2014 at 11:55 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It was the coldest morning since last April for much of southern New England with overnight lows falling into the uppers 20s and 30s.  Here’s a look at the low temperatures:

temp 1

The cold dry air that’s in place now, will give way to increasing clouds and moisture as an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes redevelops into an ocean storm that will hug the New England coast as it stalls just off-shore for the next three to four days.  Periods of rain will combine with some gusty winds to make for a gray, damp and dreary stretch of weather.  Based on the latest information, rainfall totals could reach 1-2″ in Rhode Island by the time the storm pulls away on Friday.  temp 1At this point, the storm does not look too severe for our area…. with the heaviest rain, strongest winds and potential coastal flooding hitting further north, but we’ll have to carefully watch as the storm takes shape these next few days.  A shift in the position of the storm could mean more rain and wind here.

The first rain showers are slated to move in late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

temp 1

And the steadiest of the rain could be late Wednesday into Thursday.  Some slow improvements are possible on Friday as the storm drifts further away.


Rainy Day Underway

October 16th, 2014 at 9:10 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A slow moving cold front is combining with unusually muggy air to create some downpours and isolated thunderstorms for today.  Rain has be filling in this morning and additional periods of rain will be likely into the evening.  Our computer models continue to hint at 1″ of rain or more for most of our area, with amounts to 2″ possible for some, especially in any thunderstorms.  temp 2

While severe weather is not expected, isolated wind gusts over 30mph could bring down a few tree limbs or branches. It looks like the main issue, will be trying to drive through the downpours as localized street and poor drainage flooding is possible. It will be a “warm” rain for October standards with temperatures 68-73 through the day.

Rain continues through at least early evening, so if you are headed to the Patriots game at Gillette tonight, plan on wet conditions for tailgating with temperatures in the 60s.  There may still be some leftover showers at the start of the game, but latest data now shows the bulk of the rain falling BEFORE 8pm.  temp 3

 


Storms End this Morning

October 8th, 2014 at 7:29 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s been a busy morning tracking some scattered strong storms over southern New England this morning.  They’ve had a history of heavy rain and frequent lightning along with gusty winds.  In our area, the most intense storm moved across New Bedford and Plymouth around 6:30am this morning, and even had some weak rotation noted on radar.

Radar from 6:25am Wed, 10/8

Radar from 6:25am Wed, 10/8

There was a line of severe thunderstorms that moved through parts of western MA and northern CT causing numerous reports of wind damage, including downed trees and power outages.  Winds greater than 50mph reported.  temp 3

Luckily though, there were no “severe” storms in our area.  And the threat of additional severe storms is quickly winding down.  Additional scattered showers, isolated thunder is possible through 9am before skies becoming sunny and dry across the area.  Plan on a warm afternoon with temperatures in the low and mid 70s.  temp 2

 


Potentially Strong Storms on Wednesday Morning

October 7th, 2014 at 9:14 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heads up for early Wednesday: There’s the potential for some strong to severe storms during the morning commute in southern New England.

A strong cold front will approach southern New England with a line of thunderstorms expected to form along the front…. first affecting places like NYC and then heading east.

Simiulated Radar for Wed.

Simulated Radar for 5am Wed. 10/8

Simulated Radar for 9am Wed. 10/8

Simulated Radar for 9am Wed. 10/8

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Long Island and parts of CT and RI as having a “slight risk” for severe storms, including a small chance (2%) of a weak tornado.  However, it’s more likely that our area could see some damaging straight line wind gusts, torrential downpours and frequent lightning.  temp 1

Probability of a Weak Tornado

Probability of a Weak Tornado

In addition, there could be some minor coastal flooding around the morning high tide, between 8-9am.   A persistent southerly wind will combine with an astronomical high tide, leading to some minor splash-over in the morning along Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay as well as the south coast.


September Was 2nd Driest on Record in RI

October 1st, 2014 at 8:30 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’re beginning October with rain…. something we saw very little of in September.  In fact, with just under 3/4″ of rain for the month at TF Green Airport, it became the 2nd driest September on record for RI.  The driest was 100 years ago– September 1914, when the area received 0.48″ of rain.  For September alone, that leaves us with a more than 3″ rainfall deficit.temp 3

The dry spell is taking its toll.  Last week, the US Drought Monitor upped the classification for most of southeastern New England from “abnormally dry” to “moderate drought”.

temp 2


US Drought Monitor valid September 23, 2014

No doubt, the ground is parched and our rivers and lakes are running very low.  Check out this view of Wordens Pond in Wakefield, RI from Eyewitness News viewer Gina Falcone.  The picture on the left is what the pond usually looks like, with the picture on the right from the past weekend.

Wordens Pond from Gina Falcone

Wordens Pond from Gina Falcone

We need some rainy days this month to help ease the drought conditions, and today will be one.  Periods of rain and drizzle are likely through tonight and early Thursday morning.  We’re hopeful that some areas will see more than 1/2″ of  rain.  A cold front on Saturday will give us another shot at some beneficial rain.  Even though the wet weather may impact your weekend plans, your lawns and gardens will be happy!


Daylight on the Decline

September 23rd, 2014 at 11:58 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Welcome to Autumn!  It’s a great season here in New England, with vibrant colors, sweater (and boots) weather and all things pumpkin.  What’s not to love?!  Well, for many, the shorter days that come with fall.  With the Autumnal Equinox, we mark the time where the sun’s direct rays cross the equator and head into the Southern Hemisphere.  It’s easy to notice with each passing day that the sunrises are getting later and the sunsets earlier.  In fact, we are losing about 3 minutes of daylight each day…. and those minutes quickly add up.

While equinox means “equal night”… that’s not exactly the case as we still have slightly more than 12 hours of daylight the first few days of Autumn.  Enjoy it, because by Saturday our nights will exceed our days for the first time since the start of spring.  And from there, we await the shortest day of the year…. December 21 when we only see the sun for a mere 9 hours and 13 minutes.  The sunset on  that day will be at 4:20pm.

temp 3

Along with the shorter days, inevitably comes the cooler temperatures due to the longer nights and weaker, indirect rays of the sun.  Our average high temperature drops from 72° today, to 58° on November 1 and 41° by December 21.

 


Dry Skies for Primary Day Voters

September 8th, 2014 at 11:32 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Candidates will have Mother Nature in their corner this Primary Day, with pleasant weather conditions for getting voters to the polls.

Polling places will open at 7am under a mix of clouds and milky sun with temperatures climbing from the 50s into the 60s.  The day in Rhode Island and Massachusetts will remain mostly dry, with fairly low humidity and temperatures in the 70s in the afternoon.  It will be slightly cooler than normal for the 2nd week of September.

temp 2

High pressure will stay to our north as an area of low pressure moves from the North Carolina coast into the waters well south of New England…. while some of the clouds from this disturbance will make their way into southern New England, the wet weather will not.  Rain stays suppressed to the south, leading to a dry walk/drive to polling places.  The exception to that may be an isolated sprinkle/light shower that could fall on Cape Cod or the Islands

temp 1

Tuesday Morning Surface Map Valid at 8am

temp2

Tuesday Evening Surface Map Valid at 8pm

For more details on the Primary Elections check out our Campaign 2014 coverage here.


2014 Summer in Review

September 2nd, 2014 at 11:52 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

With the start of September, meteorological summer in North America has come to an end and autumn has begun.  Looking back on the summer of 2014, it will likely be remembered as one without extreme heat and humidity and without a lot of rainy days…. and for the most part, that’s what our data shows.  At TF Green Airport, where our records for Rhode Island are kept temperatures from June 1 through August 31 were 0.5° cooler than normal with 1.88″ less rainfall than normal.  Here’s a breakdown of the data:

PROVIDENCE …PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH                      AVG LOW                AVG MEAN                PCPN

  ——–                              ——-                            ——–                      —- —- ——-

JUN:                   78.2                               57.3                              67.8                        2.36

 +0.7                                -1.1                                -0.2                          -1.28

 

JUL:                   82.9                              65.4                               74.2                           3.59

 +0.1                             +1.2                                 +0.7                         +0.30

 

AUG:                   80.4                           60.6                               70.5                              2.70

 -1.0                             -2.6                                  -1.8                               -0.90

 

SEASONAL SUMMARY —————-

SUMMER:           80.5                       61.1                                      70.8                            8.65

  -0.1                        -0.9                                     -0.5                                -1.88

RECORDS ——-

7/04…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.68…PREVIOUSLY 1.65 IN 1978

08/13…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.26…PREVIOUSLY 1.28 IN 1958

 

As for meteorological autumn…. it’s certainly starting off warm–with the first week of September looking and feeling more like July, temperatures will be will above average.  And the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting both the month of September and Autumn as a whole to be warmer than average in the east.  So keep those pools open…. at least for now :)

September Temperature Probability

September Temperature Probability

 

Sept, Oct, Nov Temperature Probability

3-month Temp Outlook for Sept, Oct, Nov


Swells from Cristobal Have Arrived, High Surf Continues

August 28th, 2014 at 9:07 am by under General Talk

High Surf Advisory continues along our ocean facing beaches today as swells from Hurricane Cristobal have now reached our coastline.  We’ve been watching the surf building through the night and beach surf could reach 6-12ft today, leading to potentially strong and dangerous rip currents.  There were reports of dozens of water rescues yesterday at area beaches and conditions will be worse today, so be extra cautious if heading to the beach. temp 2

temp 1

Hurricane Cristobal is making it’s closest pass today, staying about 300miles south and east of Nantucket, so the only effects felt from the storm are in our waters.  The seas will stay unsettled into Friday with the high surf advisory through at least noon.  There could still be a moderate risk for rip currents into the start of the holiday weekend.


Cristobal to Bring High Surf, Dangerous Rip Currents

August 27th, 2014 at 7:36 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Hurricane Cristobal is continuing on a track that will keep it well off-shore of southern New England with no threat of a landfall. temp 1 However, it is leading to higher surf and an increased risk for rip currents at our beaches over the next few days.  Already today, ocean facing beaches in RI and southeastern MA have a moderate risk for rip currents so be cautious if you are beach bound and plan on swimming.

By this evening, surf will build to as high as 6-9ft and there will be a high risk for rip currents.  In fact, our coastline is now under a “High Surf Advisory” from 8pm this evening through 8pm Thursday.   temp 2

Seas will begin to diminish by Friday and the Labor day weekend as Cristobal moves further away from the area.


23rd Anniversary of Hurricane Bob

August 19th, 2014 at 1:02 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog
HURRICANE_BOB

Courtesy: NOAA

It was 23 years ago this afternoon, on August 19, 1991 that Hurricane Bob made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane in Rhode Island. bobphoto11

It was the last direct hit from a hurricane in southern New England, though we’ve certainly had impacts from tropical systems in recent years–including Tropical Storm Irene and Super Storm Sandy.  Most recently, Hurricane Arthur spoiled our 4th of July with a soaking rainfall as it tracked south and east of Nantucket.

Here’s a great write up from the National Weather Service in Taunton, MA about the effects of the storm in southern New England:

Hurricane Bob developed in the central Bahamas on August 16, then steadily intensified and reached hurricane status on the evening of August 17. Bob continued to strengthen during the next 48 hours, as it began an acceleration north-northeastward, paralleling the East Coast. The eye of Hurricane Bob passed over Block Island, Rhode Island at approximately 1:30 PM, and made landfall over Newport, Rhode Island shortly before 2 PM. 

Hurricane Bob brought sustained hurricane force winds to the immediate coastal communities of Rhode Island and most of southeast Massachusetts. Strong tropical storm force winds blew across the remainder of the region, with many areas receiving gusts to hurricane force east of the Connecticut River. Wind damage to trees and utility poles was common and resulted in numerous power outages. Over 60 percent of the residents across southeast Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts lost power. Damage was also extensive to apple and peach orchards across these areas.

Coastal communities bore the brunt of the storm, with sustained winds between 75 to 100 mph. Peak wind gusts to 125 mph were recorded on Cape Cod in the towns of Brewster and North Truro, as well as in Wethersfield, Connecticut. The highest sustained wind of 100 mph, was recorded in North Truro. Block Island reported sustained winds of 90 mph, with gusts in excess of 105 mph (maximum speed of equipment). Wind gusts to near 100 mph were recorded in Newport and by the Navy Ship Samuel B. Roberts, which was riding out the storm on the east passage between Newport and Jamestown, Rhode Island. Additionally, there were four reports of tornadoes as Bob came ashore. The lowest barometric pressure was recorded by the USS Valdez while in the east passage of Narragansett Bay, with a reading of 28.47 inches.

Hurricane Bob caused a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet along the Rhode Island shore, but drove a surge of 10 to 15 feet into Buzzards Bay. The Buzzards Bay shore east to Cape Cod was hardest hit. The highest surges, of 12 to 15 feet, were observed in Onset, Bourne, Mashpee and Wareham, at the head of Buzzard’s Bay. Cove Road, in Mattapoisett, Massachusetts had 29 of 37 homes destroyed, while Angelica Point, Massachusetts lost 32 of 35 homes along the shore. Boat damage was significant, as many boats were torn from their moorings. Extensive beach erosion occurred along the shore from Westerly, Rhode Island eastward. Some south facing beach locations on Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket islands lost up to 50 feet of beach to erosion.

Significant rainfall of 3 to 6 inches fell across all but southeast Rhode Island and eastward to Cape Cod, where less than 1 inch fell. The heaviest rainfall of over 7 inches affected western Rhode Island and extreme eastern Connecticut. Foster, Rhode Island had the highest amount of rain with 7.01 inches.

Bob was responsible for six deaths in the region, all in Connecticut. Total damage in Southern New England was approximately 680 million dollars.

 


Hazy, Hot and Humid–Not This August

August 19th, 2014 at 12:41 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

It’s been a delightful summer filled with temperate days, cool nights and low humidity…. which means it’s been lacking much of the sultry air New Englanders either love or loathe.  It’s quite a difference from last year–where we had 16 days hit 90° or higher.  So far this year, we’ve managed to climb to 90°+ just three times–all in early July.  And this month, especially, temperatures are running cool.  Through August 18 temperatures at TF Green Airport are running more than 2° below normal, and  14 of the first 18 days of the month have been at or below normal.  temp 1

This morning lows were the coldest so far this month for many areas, including at TF Green where temperatures dipped to 54° at dawn.  temp 3

I don’t expect any significant spells of hot weather heading into the end of August.  Starting on Thursday and lasting into the weekend, temperatures will be below normal again with highs in the 70s and nights in the upper 50s to lower 60s.  And the outlook for the last week of August from the Climate Prediction Center shows continued cool conditions over much of the northern tier of the country.  temp 1


Heavy Rain Moves Across RI /SE MA This Morning

August 13th, 2014 at 7:52 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’ve been watching an incredible flash flood event developing over parts of LI and CT this morning, with more than a foot of rain in Islip, NY on Long Island…. flash flooding has shut down numerous streets and lead to water rescues there.  Check out this photo from the Weather Channel’s Stephanie Abrams:

temp 2

Islip, NY

That band of heavy rain will continue to lift northeast across RI and southeastern MA through the morning and early afternoon.  Our computer models are still indicating the potential for 1-3″ of rain in our area, with isolated higher amounts possible.  Here’s one look at potential rainfall totals from the RPM model this morning.  temp 3


Flash Flood Watch Expanded

August 12th, 2014 at 12:49 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The National Weather Service has expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include all of RI and southeastern MA except for the Cape and Islands as our computer models continue to show the potential for heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms with a potent storm system moving through New England on Wednesday.

temp 1

We are still forecasting 1-3″ of rain for most of our area, though isolated higher amounts are possible.  Here’s the 12z RPM model precipitation forecast for rainfall totals:  temp 2

In addition, our coastline is now under a “Coastal Flood Advisory” for the potential for minor flooding during tomorrow mornings high tide around 10am-11am.  The combination of an astronomical high tide and a strong southeast wind could cause minor splash over at south and east facing coastlines. temp 3


Wednesday Storm Update

August 12th, 2014 at 9:47 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’ll squeeze in one more dry day before a storm system moves in and brings heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms to our area starting later tonight and into Wednesday.  We could certainly use the rainfall as parts of our area have been abnormally dry; however, the rain could be heavy enough to overwhelm storm drains leading to localized street and poor drainage flooding along with smaller stream flooding.

The highest risk of seeing flash flooding is across inland parts of southern New England, where rainfall rates of up to 2″/hr are possible. As of this morning, northwest RI and the Boston suburbs were included in a “Flash Flood Watch” for late tonight through Wednesday evening.  temp 1It looks like our best shot of getting widespread rain and thunder will be from mid-morning through late afternoon. In addition, there’s the risk–though small–for some severe thunderstorms.  This morning, the Storm Prediction Center highlighted southern RI and SE MA as an area that could see severe weather tomorrow–with damaging wind gusts and even an isolated tornado possible. temp 1

Finally, we could see some minor flooding along the coast and bay during tomorrow morning’s high tide. High tide in Newport Harbor is at around 10:30am.  The astronomically high tide due to the nearly full moon, combined with a stiff southeast wind may lead to minor flooding.  temp 2


Stormy Day on Wednesday

August 11th, 2014 at 11:21 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As Pete Mangione mentioned  in the previous blog, the ingredients are coming together for a potentially stormy day on Wednesday.  An area of low pressure currently over the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through New England by Wednesday with a new storm developing along the front.

Surface Map valid at 8am Wednesday

Forecast Surface Map for 8am Wednesday

The set up gives us the potential for periods of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms.  Right now the forecast is for as much as 1-2.5″ of rain in New England.

Forecast Rainfall Amounts for Wednesday

Forecast Rainfall Amounts for Wednesday

Heavy rain could lead to localized street and poor drainage flooding, and potentially some dangerous flash flooding.  In addition, any embedded thunderstorms will bring torrential downpours and possibly damaging winds.  Timing of the heaviest rainfall in Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts looks to be Wednesday morning and afternoon…. tapering off in the evening.  Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor this potential severe weather day.


Bertha Becomes 2nd Hurricane of the Season

August 4th, 2014 at 11:05 am by under General Talk

Bertha has strengthened, becoming the 2nd hurricane of the 2014 season as it moves away from the Bahamas.  temp 1

As of 11am, sustained winds were near 80mph with gusts to near 100mph… making it a Category 1 hurricane.  The forecast track has remained consistent, with the storm tracking far off-shore, sparing the east coast of a landfall.  temp 2However, the storm is expected to churn up the seas as it passes several hundred miles southeast of Nantucket Tuesday night.  The main impacts from the hurricane will be in the form of highs surf and dangerous rip currents for beach goers on Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition, 5-8ft swells are expected in coastal waters by late Tuesday night and conditions will be dangerous for mariners traveling east of Nantucket.    temp 3


Forecast Change for the Better Today

July 24th, 2014 at 9:07 am by under General Talk

All week we’ve been talking about a cold front slowing down as it moved off the southern New England coast today… well, there’s some good news!  Instead of the front pestering us with lingering clouds and showers… it looks like it will move just far enough away for the dry air to win out.  That means a pretty nice Thursday.  It won’t be as hot or as humid with partly sunny skies.  There’s just a small chance of a brief shower, but most of us should stay dry through the day.  I hope you can get out and enjoy the day. temp 1


Flash Flood Warning in Effect Until 10:30am.

July 16th, 2014 at 7:59 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Flash Flood warning has been issued for parts of RI and SE MA for much of RI and into parts of Bristol County in MA.  A Flash flood warning means that flash flooding is occuring or imminent.  This line of strong thunderstorms has brought torrential rainfall with rates of 2-3″/hr.  Street and poor drainage flooding is likely along with some smaller stream flooding.  temp 1