In fact, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK has parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas under a “Moderate Risk” for severe storms.

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday, May 21

Here’s the forecast for potential tornadoes:

Tornado Probability

The main threat with any storms that develop in this area will be very large hail and strong tornadoes.  There’s also a lower risk for isolated severe thunderstorms in the central Great Lakes and into far western New England.

Locally, a front will be over southern New England today and will act as a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late afternoon and evening.  The greatest risk of seeing any storms would be in northern RI and northern Bristol County, MA.  Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning are all possible.  If you are headed to the ball field today, keep an eye to the sky for changing weather conditions.

RPM Model Valid at 7pm

For most of RI, the rainfall totals from yesterday were pretty measly. 

And today will be more of the same.  Low pressure will creep over New England as it continues to weaken, bringing occasional showers, quick downpours and an isolated thunderstorm.  There will be long stretches of dry weather in between the showers and even some hazy, humid sun at times.  Rainfall amounts will generally be under 1/4″.

Showers end this evening and we’ll have a dry day tomorrow.  In fact, it will be one of the warmest days so far this spring, with some inland spots nearing 80!

US Drought Monitor as of Apr 30

And it’s no wonder… since the start of meteorological spring on March 1st we have an almost 5.5″ rainfall deficit.  It’s less severe in eastern MA due to a coastal storm a few weeks ago that brought heavy rain to that area, while in RI we only saw a few light showers.

It looks like a combination of low pressure tomorrow and Thursday, with several fronts over the weekend will help put a dent in that deficit.  We’ll see scattered showers, with some embedded heavier downpours starting by afternoon on Wednesday… and we’ll keep at least a chance of showers in the forecast into Sunday.  Here’s a forecast for how much rainfall we could see through the next 7 days…. with about an 1″-1.25″ expected.

Rainfall Totals Next 7 Days

Omega Block

Notice the resemblance to the greek letter omega:

Greek Letter Omega

“Blocking” means that there’s a stagnation in the weather pattern where there’s  the same type of weather for days or even weeks.  For New England, which is under the omega block, it means dry weather and light wind for an extended period of time while rain and clouds are common on either side of the omega block. This kind of pattern makes forecasting easier since you can pinpoint areas that will be dominated by dry or rainy weather for several days.

So when will the pattern break?  Some of our computer models see some signs of change by late next week… though even then, it doesn’t look like a complete break down of the ridging in New England.  At this point, we’re looking at likely warmer than average and drier than average conditions in our area through possibly May 10.

In terms of rainfall, we’re looking at mostly light amounts across RI–generally under 1/4″.  However, the amounts will be more impressive over southeastern MA… possibly nearing 1/2″ in New Bedford and as much as 1″ to 2″ across parts of the Cape and Islands.  The culprit is an area of low pressure that will track south and east of Nantucket.

Accum rain by 8am Wednesday

The storm departs by early tomorrow morning (before 9am) and then the good stuff begins!  We have a huge turnaround tomorrow… we should break into sunshine through the morning, and that–combined with a shift in the wind to the southwest–will push our temperatures up to near 70 inland and 60s at the coast.

RPM Model Forecast Highs for Wednesday

A rather unimpressive cold front will sweep through Wednesday night with a passing shower followed by a large area of high pressure that will sit over New England and keep us storm-free from Thursday into the weekend.  There are even signs that high could continue to control the weather into early next week.  Temperatures under the high will be seasonable–a comfortable low to mid 60s.

Cold front moved through early this morning, bringing clouds and a few scattered showers, but not a lot of cold air, especially for today.

In fact, temperatures this morning were about 20° warmer than yesterday at dawn… add sunshine for most of the day, and you’re left with afternoon temperatures climbing well into the 60s–even at the coast.  The combination of sunshine, mild air and lighter winds makes today my PICK OF THE WEEK!

After a comfortable evening temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by dawn.  Thursday still looks good for outdoor plans with a sunny start and then increasing afternoon and evening clouds.  It will be a little cooler with highs near 61.  A warm front will lift through Thursday night, unleashing humid and mild air for Friday.  Gusty winds ahead of a cold front will lead to rough waters on the Bay and a chillier feel.  While there may be a spotty shower during the day on Friday, a soaking rain will hold off until Friday night.  Around a 1/4-3/4″ of rain expected with this strong cold front, even perhaps a rumble of thunder.

24hr Accum rain by Saturday PM

Our computer models are still hinting at the rain extending into Saturday morning with clearing skies in the afternoon.  Cooler air will settle in for early next week behind the front.

We’re still looking at around 1-1.5″ of rainfall by midnight.  Here’s the latest RPM model run for accumulated rainfall in New England. 

In addition, east-northeast winds will gust up to 35mph at times,  and there could be some localized street flooding… though our rivers and streams should not flood.

Clouds linger through much of the night and early Saturday morning before giving way to sunshine.  The April sun should do the trick warming us up in the afternoon with highs back into the upper 50s.  Sunday will feature lots of sunshine with temperatures just a bit cooler than Saturday.

I’m seeing signs of another stretch of mild weather for the start of school vacation week with highs near 60 Monday and in the mid-60s for Tuesday and Wednesday.  We’ll have to keep an eye on the eventual position of a cold front for the middle of next week… if it stays north of our area then our temperatures will stay mild, if it slips south then we’ll see the cooler temperatures return.

Our last 70° or higher day was on

OCTOBER 20 when we hit a high of 74°!

Today, we will likely only hit highs in the 60s… but it is going to be a gorgeous day.  Lots of sun, lighter winds and inland temperatures in the mid 60s should make for a great day for outdoor activities.  It will be cooler at the coast with an afternoon sea breeze keeping highs near 58-60.

A front will remain across the northeast next few days… and while we’ll remain on the mild side of the front (hence Tuesday and Wednesdays highs in the 70s), it will be closer enough to give us a chance for an occasional shower.

Surface Map for 8pm Today

It looks like we’ll see one of those rounds of showers early Tuesday morning (between 2am and 8am) and yet another chance on Wednesday and Thursday–dry stretches and partial sun can be expected in between the shower threat.  As the front pushes south, cooler temperatures will move in for the end of the work week.

It should be a very pretty early spring day… with high pressure building to our south and a wind shift, we’re looking at dry and mainly sunny skies.

Surface Map 4/4

As Tony mentioned in his blog last night, we are tracking an area of low pressure that will track well south and east of our area tomorrow.  It still looks like Rhode Island and southeastern MA will be on the northern edge of the rain, with showers expected from about 8am Friday morning through about 3pm Friday afternoon.  The storm makes a quick exit… so we may even end the day with some sunshine.  It looks mild even with the clouds and showers around, highs in the mid to upper 50s.

The weather looks quiet and dry for the weekend with sunshine Saturday and more of a sun/cloud mix on Sunday.

Early next week, there will be a temperature battle going on over New England, with a cold front nearby that will wobble near or over central New England for a few days.  That front is going to be the dividing line between warmer than normal temperatures to the south  and cooler than normal temperatures to the north–60s and 70s vs 40s and 50s.  Our guidance this morning is at odds… with some showing our temperatures tempered by the front (ECMWF) and other GFS showing the front staying north and our temperatures soaring!  Right now, I’m leaning more towards the reliable ECMWF, and keeping our temperatures closer to 55-62 with hazy sun/clouds and a few showers around.  Stay tuned!

If you have outdoor plans late day, you are going to want to watch for a changeable sky.  We’re timing the passage of a strong cold front for late afternoon and early evening that has the potential to bring some isolated stormy weather into our area.  Right now it looks like the best window of opportunity for showers, isolated thunder and isolated strong winds will be between 4-8pm in RI and exiting off of the Cape by 11pm.  Here’s a look at the 12z model run of the RPM for 6pm today.  It shows the scattered nature of the showers (not everyone sees one) and a few isolated heavier downpours/wind gusts/rumbles of thunder.  Winds could briefly gust to 40-50mph in any of these stronger cells.

RPM Valid 6pm Mon

Behind the cold front, temperatures will tumble on a gusty northwest wind.  Temperatures should be back into the 40s before sunset and fall all the way into the upper 20s by dawn tomorrow.

We’re back to sweater weather tomorrow and on Wednesday with temperatures only climbing into the low to mid 40s.  We should be back to more seasonable temperatures by Thursday afternoon.

Our computer models are continuing to show a few showers popping up through the afternoon… they will be hit-or-miss, brief and generally light… with some sun peeking through at times.  This is the RPM Model showing those instability showers and how the radar may look around 3pm today.

RPM Model

We’ll get back on track with temperatures in the 50s for Friday. The day should begin with sunshine before clouds fill in through the afternoon.  There’s a small chance of a sprinkle in the afternoon, but most of us stay dry.

Easter bunny will be dropping off some pretty “egg-cellent” weather for the weekend.  An area of high pressure will build overhead on Saturday and should deliver plenty of sunshine Saturday and into  Sunday afternoon.  We’re still closely watching the timing of a cold front for Sunday night.  Our computer models have been speeding up the arrival of the front a little bit, with the rain showers possible 3-6hrs earlier.

What does that mean for your weekend plans?  Not much until after 5pm on Sunday, when showers will begin to threaten our area.  Here’s a look at this morning’s 06z GFS model valid at 8pm with the leading edge of showers  pushing into southeastern New England.

06z GFS Valid 8pm Sunday

Sunday Afternoon

The latest computer guidance on Monday’s storm continues to point at a southerly track–one that supports the bulk of an ocean storm staying off-shore.  It’s a storm that will deliver quite a bit of rain and snow to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic… but it looks like that heavy precipitation will stay over the ocean.  That said, the pleasant weather from Sunday will be replaced by cloudy skies, cool temperatures and some light rain/snow showers for Monday afternoon and night.

Its still possible for some small accumulations on Monday evening/night…. maybe a coating to an 1-2″ on grassy surfaces and car tops.  Best chance would be near the coast and into SE MA.  Based on the current forecast, much heavier precipitation will be just south… so we’ll have to watch for any jog in the track closer to the coast, which could bring heavier precip (more snow) into our area.

RPM Model Valid Monday 8pm

Here’s a look at some of the snowfall totals we received from last night’s storm.  It was highly localized heavier bands of snow, so even from one part of a town or city to the other there were differences in the accumulations.

So when will it finally start to feel like Spring?  We’re hopeful it will be in early April.  Our computer models showing more cold, unsettled weather through Easter Sunday,  but check out this update from the Climate Prediction Center about how the month of April is setting up.  It calls for warmer than average temperatures in New England.  Yippee!!

April Temperature Probability

We’ve seen less than half of the amount of Worcester’s snow at TF Green Airport where RI’s official weather records are kept. Our total for the season is 46.3″, which doesn’t even place in the top 10 snowiest winters.  However; it’s still a stark contrast to last year’s less than 18″ of snow and 76° High on March 21.

I haven’t made any signifant changes to the forecast that Tony had last night… other than to adjust the higher snow band westward slightly to include parts of southern RI.  It still looks like a narrow band of 2-3″ snow fall totals will occur somewhere in our area with an isolated 4-5″ total possible…. there will be little to no accumulation on either side of that band.  We’ll be keeping a close eye on the radar this evening and tonight, to see where exactly the bursts of snow are and may have to make some additional adjustments to the forecast.

By Friday Morning

While most of the snow will melt as it hits the pavement before sunset this evening, the arrival of heavier bursts of snow may coincide with the evening commute and slow the trip home from work.  In addition, tomorrow morning’s commute could feature some slick spots as showers taper off before 8am for most and skies turn partly sunny.

This Evening’s Commute

March 2012

I have been getting lots of questions over the last few weeks about WHEN we are going to start to warm up.  Unfortunately, we aren’t seeing a lot of change in the weather pattern through the end of the month.  A large trough in the jet stream will continue to allow cooler than normal temperatures to flow into the eastern US, and we’ll have to keep an eye out for more late season wintry weather.

Temperature Probability for March 25-31

New data continues to flow into the Pinpoint Weather Center this morning, giving us growing confidence in a period of wintry weather from late this evening through tomorrow morning before changing to plain rain.

In fact, the National Weather Service this morning upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for Northern RI, where our highest snowfall accumulations are expected—as much as 4-6″ of snow and sleet.  In addition, the Providence Metro area through Kent and South Counties, along with northern Bristol County, MA are now under a Winter Weather Advisory.  The Alerts are for 9pm this evening through 11am Tuesday.

We are most concerned about messy travel conditions for tomorrow morning’s commute.

TIMING:  Snow arrives between 8pm and 12am.

          Changing to Rain from south to north between 6am and 11am Tuesday

         Periods of Rain in the Afternoon will taper off most areas by 8pm

ACCUMULATIONS:  NW RI–4-6″

                                Central  RI to Northern Bristol Cty MA–2-4″

                                Coastal RI/MA–Coating to 2″

RAINFALL:  Additional 0.5″ to 1″ of  rain after the changeover

WINDS:  East winds 10-20mph with gusts to 35mph

COASTAL FLOODING:  Not an issue because tides will not be astronomically high.  We catch a break in this regard

RIVER FLOODING:  We’ll watch local rivers and streams, however, right now rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy enough to cause flooding of our major rivers–Pawtuxet, Blackstone, Pawcatuck.

Tonight looks to be the coldest night of the week, with mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the ‘teens to lower 20s.  Brrr!

We’re continuing to track a weak clipper-type system for Saturday.  The trend has been to push this low pressure system further south over the ocean.  In fact, several of the overnight computer models (00z ECMWF and 00z GFS) keep our skies dry and partly sunny for Saturday.  Bottom line–even if this disturbance comes close enough to bring showers they will be more of a nuisance than anything significant.  Here’s a view of the 06z GFS keeping the precipitation south of our area on Saturday–valid at 2pm. 

It still looks dry and chilly for St Patrick’s Day festivities on Sunday.

Light rain and snow showers will continue today as damp ocean air streams overhead on a strengthening northeast wind.  While this will make for a dreary day, travel should be ok through both this morning and this evening’s commute.

Steadier, heavier snow will begin to overspread our area overnight.  And that’s when accumulations will begin in southern New England.  We should wake up to messy travel conditions in many areas on Thursday morning… as snow will be falling at a good clip along with strong northeast winds gusting over 40mph at times.  I did trim the accumulations down a bit from last night because I am concerned that snow may have a tough time accumulating during the daylight hours with temperatures above freezing and a relatively stronger March sun (compared with early this winter). In fact, roadways may remain mainly “wet” on Thursday…even as snow falls at steadily, and at times heavily throughout the day.   Keep in mind, this is a storm that will drag on and on… so these accumulation amounts will be realized over about a 30hr time frame.

Snowfall Forecast

The bigger story with this storm will be the battering waves and strong winds that will lead to significant coastal flooding and beach erosion for areas along the Eastern Massachusetts coastline through Cape Cod and the Islands… including Block Island.  These are areas that have been vulnerable to erosion and flooding after the damage from Hurricane Sandy and the February Blizzard.  We’ll be watching over three tide cycles… starting from tomorrow morning’s high tide through Friday morning’s high tide. Storm surge of 1-3ft possible with wave heights over 15ft in parts of Cape Cod Bay and Near Scituate, MA.  The pounding seas and continues strong winds could lead to more beach erosion.  The effects will be less along the coast of RI, but some additional beach erosion is certainly possible.

Storm Details

TIMING: 

• WED AM:  Starts dry… light snow/rain showers developing by lunchtime
• WED AFTERNOON:  Lighter rain/snow showers… little to no accumulation, northeast winds strengthen

HEIGHT OF STORM

• WED NIGHT:  Rain and snow turns steadier and heavier.  Some accumulations for NW RI.  Strong wind gusts 45mph+

• THU:  Periods of rain and snow, heavy at times–additional accumulations possible, strong northeast winds continue through the day.  Coastal flooding and beach erosion possible at high tide cycles

New 12z data will be coming in through the morning and we’ll have an update… and accumulation map for you.

PROVIDENCE

PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT

        AVG HIGH     AVG LOW   AVG MEAN     PCPN         SNOW         REMARKS ——–

• DEC:       45.7         31.0         38.4               5.55                 9.3                TIED FOR 8TH WARMEST
  •   +3.4        +4.7           +4.1               +1.33           +0.6

• JAN:       39.4          23.2          31.3             1.93               6.5
  •  +2.0          +2.2             +2.1            -1.93             -2.5

• FEB:       37.9          24.0           31.0               5.03            24.3               7TH SNOWIEST
  •   -2.4           +0.4           -1.0               +1.74          +15.8

SEASONAL SUMMARY —————-

• WINTER:   41.0        26.1        33.6             12.51            40.1
  •       +1.0       +2.5         +1.8             +1.14            +13.9

RECORDS ——-

01/31…TIED RECORD HIGH…62…ALSO SET IN 1988.

02/27…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.22…PREVIOUSLY 1.06 IN 1913.

In summary, meteorological winter in RI was warmer than average and snowier than average.

With the drier stretch overnight, water levels at the Pawtuxet River crested at about 9.1ft, just slightly over the 9ft flood stage.  Water is receding and levels are below flood stage, leading the National Weather Service to cancel the flood warning.  However, a FLOOD WARNING has been issued for the Pawcatuck River in Westerly.  The river is affected not only by rainfall but also by the tide cycles… and with water levels close to flood stage from yesterday’s heavy rain, some minor flooding is possible around the 10:30am high tide.  Water levels are expected to recede after high tide.

Pawcatuck River Water levels

We’ll be keeping an eye on the radar overnight, with the potential for rain showers to transition to light snow showers.  As temperatures fall, we could see some slick spots develop for the Friday morning commute.

The storm system responsible for this stretch of unsettled weather will slowly drift east through the weekend.  Extra cloudiness and even a sprinkle or flurry is possible over the weekend… but without a winter storm bearing down on our area, it looks like the nicest weekend we’ve seen in about a month!!

THIS WEEKEND

As the steady rain tapers to lighter showers and drizzle this afternoon, rainfall totals may top 1″ in spots.  Unlike other storm that are in and out in a day, this storm is going to linger… and linger… and linger…. giving us a stretch of unsettled weather for Thursday and Friday.  The storm will weaken as it hangs around, so just intermittent showers expected by Tonight and into Thursday and Friday.  An abundance of clouds and chilly temperatures will make for a dreary finish to February, though.

Good news for weekenders…. we still have a storm-free weekend on the way with partly sunny skies and slightly below average temperatures.

Ahead of the messy weather, we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds today and slightly warmer than normal temperatures with of 42-46. 

Overnight we’ll see the wintry mix arrive before warmer air moves in and “plain rain” takes over by early Wednesday morning.  Winds from the ESE with gust to near 40mph at times through early Wednesday and could pile up the water along the south coast of RI.  That could mean minor coastal flooding at the 8:30am high tide.  Nothing major, but definitely something to watch along our vulnerable south coast.  Here are some details:

– Wintry mix after midnight, quick change to plain rain for most.  Snow/sleet may linger NW RI where a small slushy accumlation possible

–Heavy rain Wednesday… especially before 3pm… around 1 inch of rainfall leading to localized street and poor drainage flooding

Precipitation Totals by Wed Night with about 0.5″ to 1.25″ of QPF
Per the 06z RPM model

–Showers linger on Wednesday night, Thursday and possibly into Friday as our storm system slowly creeps off-shore.

–As cold air drains in behind the slowly departing storm later Thursday, the rain showers may mix with or change back to wet snow showers.  Some small accumulations are possible Thursday night into early Friday

There is less cold air around than the last 2 weekend storms and a track closer to the coast both support more of a snow-to rain-back to snow scenario.  Our 06z early morning runs of the NAM and GFS computer models this morning are showing a slightly colder set-up, with a burst of accumulating snow on the back side of the storm on Sunday morning.  That’s when the bulk of our accumulations will occur.  Combine the wet snow with gusty winds and there could be some isolated tree damage and power outages in our area—certainly nothing to the extent we saw with the Blizzard two weekends ago.  If the storm doesn’t intensify and there’s not a burst of snow on Sunday, then our accumulations would be much lower.

Here’s my updated accumulation map for the weekend:

Weekend Accumulations

It still looks like the highest accumulations from this storm will be in central New England.

As is typical 5-6 days out, the computer models are all showing the storm, but the track, timing and intensity are different… leading to a variety of possible solutions–from a soaking rain to a plow-able snow.  Here’s the latest morning run of the GFS model, showing a scenario of rain changing to snow.

12z GFS Valid at 1am Sunday

One thing is certain, the weather pattern remains an active one.  And not just for this week–but possibly into early March.

However, temperatures will warm significantly before the next batch of precipitation falls, enough so that it should be wet and not white.

We’ll begin to climb out of the deep freeze early tomorrow as temperatures quickly climb above freezing early Tuesday morning.  We’ll continue the climb in the afternoon… into the mid to upper 40s with increasing clouds on a southwest wind.  Rain will move in ahead of a cold front by about 5-6pm and continue into the first part of the night.

Futurecast Tuesday

Temperatures will stay in the 40s early in the night before dropping into the 30s.   Weather looks pretty quiet from Wednesday through Friday.

The weekend forecast continues to be a tricky one, as our computer models this morning are still showing a variety of tracks for an ocean storm Saturday into Sunday.  The trend has been a track closer to our coastline, with potential accumulating snow.   Here’s a look at two different accumulation maps from the GFS and NAM…

06z GFS Valid Sunday Night

06z NAM Valid Sunday Evening

the GFS shows moderate accumulations (5-10″) while the NAM shows all of the accumulations off shore.  These are the two extremes…. the reliable ECMWF is in between, with a track close enough to bring several inches of snow by mid-morning.  It’s still an evolving forecast, so check back in for updates.  My early call is for 3-6″ of snow, though this is not a final forecast.

• Timing
  • Lighter rain/snow showers during the day, little to no accums
  • Turning Heavier at Night, Moderate Accums during this time
  • Tapering off Sunday morning
• Impact
  • Poor travel Saturday night and Sunday Morning
  • Not as significant as Blizzard.  Widespread power outages are not expected
  • Temperatures fall, winds pick up on Sunday.  Some gusts over 40mph possible by evening.

RPM Model Valid 11pm Wednesday

Accumulations based on the latest track shifts southward would be small… a dusting to perhaps an inch or 2.  If the trend off-shore continues, amounts could be even lighter.

A similar trend is developing for the weekend storm system, too.  Our more reliable computer models have this storm south of the benchmark (40/70 lat/lon lines).  If that storm track is correct our area would be spared any major accumulations.  However, the weekend storm is a large and powerful storm and will need to be carefully monitored for any shift in the track.

We are still in the “height” of this storm, as another band of heavy snow is pinwheeling through RI and SE MA.  It’s something we’ve been watching on radar over the last few hours as it brought very intense snow to central and eastern MA (>20″).  It’s on the move, now and will be moving over our area through about 7am.  We believe it could bring an additional 4-8″ of snow as it moves through.  After that, conditions in RI will start to slowly improve, however, additional light to moderate snow showers are possible through late morning or early afternoon.

In addition, wind gusts of 40-50mph+ are still possible at times, continuing to create near whiteout conditions and leading to potentially more power outages and wind damage.

Temperatures have plummeted and are now in the ‘teens with wind chills below zero.  It is brutal outside.  Please stay safe.  Eyewitness News will have coverage through the day starting at 5am.  We’ll be streaming online and on-air (if you have power/cable).  Keep sending us your storm reports and pictures at reportIt@wpri.com.  Thanks!!