Michelle Muscatello

Storm Has Moved Out

December 8th, 2011 at 9:09 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The storm system that brought well more than 2″ of rain to most areas in southern New England has moved out… but at the tail end of the rainfall, strong damaging winds mixed down in a line of very heavy rain and isolated thunder.  It happened around 3:30-4:30am.  Here are the gusts that were reported as the line moved across our area:

Peak Gusts Dec 8

Peak Gusts Dec 8

At one point, National Grid was reporting more than 3,000 homes/businesses had lost power (as of about 5am).  And there were reports of trees and wires down… even some near I295 that affected the early morning commute.

In addition, the Pawtuxet River is seeing minor flooding this morning… the river is expected to crest around 10ft this afternoon which is 1ft above flood stage.


Too Little, Too Late for Snow Lovers

December 7th, 2011 at 8:44 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

How about this stat—it is the 4th Wednesday in a row with rain in southern New England! The trend of mid-week storms continues, with a slow-moving cold front bringing periods of rain to our area through the day.  We’ll have 2 waves of low pressure ride along the front that will enhance the rainfall, the first during the day and the 2nd will pass nearby tonight.

Earlier in the week there were some computer models that had the 2nd area of low pressure in a position southeast of Nanucket bringing our area the potential for some snow (cold air, wind direction, etc all in our favor)… but this morning it’s looking more likely that the storm will track over the Cape and Islands, that’s a “warmer” scenario for southern New England, meaning mainly rain for us.

Warm Storm Track = Mainly Rain Tonight/Thursday AM

Warm Storm Track = Mainly Rain Tonight/Thursday AM

 

Meanwhile, ski country (VT, NH, ME) will get some much-needed snow out of this storm.  Here’s a look at some of the predicted snowfall accumulations for New England through 7am Thursday.

 


Colder Weather Pattern Begins This Week

December 5th, 2011 at 12:00 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It doesn’t feel like it today, as temperatures once again soar to unseasonably mild highs, but big changes appear to be on the way.  Our computer models are continuing to show a significant cool down later this week.  And, unlike the rest of this Autumn Season when any cold air was short-lived, this time the chill looks to last.  In fact, there may even be a few chances for some snow to mix with rain later this week. There are two time frames, in particular, that I’ll be monitoring closely… Wednesday night into Thursday… and Friday night into early Saturday.

Today and tomorrow will remain warm with highs 57-62.  A slow-moving, moisture laden cold front will begin to bring showers to our area late tonight and last off and on into Wednesday before the front begins to shift off the coast.  Initially the air is still too warm for any type of precipitation other than just “plain rain” through Wednesday… but *if* (and it’s a big “if” at this point) 1) the cold front is still close to our coast on Wednesday Night, 2) enough cold air arrives, and 3) another wave of low pressure (a storm center) can develop along the cold front, we have the potential to see rain mixing with or changing to snow for Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

After that, it appears we’ll be stuck with a more winter like weather pattern…. with afternoon temperatures late this week running bout 20° colder than today and tomorrow.

 


Meteorological Autumn One of the Warmest on Record in New England

December 2nd, 2011 at 11:45 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

I posted a little bit about this earlier in the week, but the official numbers are in, and as expected, this Autumn has been one of the warmest on record in southern New England.  The National Weather Service office in Taunton, MA just released the report this morning.  “Meteorological Autumn” runs from September 1st through November 30th.  The data has been compiled from records dating back to 1905 at TF Green Airport, which the weather service refers to as “Providence”.  Here are the  stats:

Rocky Point

The View from Rocky Point

September–8th Warmest

October–8th Wettest, 2nd Snowiest

November–4th Warmest

Seasonal Summary:  Autumn 2011 was the 3rd warmest and 5th wettest. 

For more data check out the full National Weather Service Autumn Season in Review

 


Warm November is One for the Record Books

December 1st, 2011 at 7:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It wasn’t your imagination… November was exceptionally mild.  In more than 100yrs of record keeping at TF Green airport, it was the 4th warmest on record.  We saw temperatures top 60° on 14 days, and we climbed to 70°+ twice.  Rainfall was slightly above average, too, with 4.79″ of rain.

 

Warm November

Warm November

The Autumn Season (Sept 1–Nov 30) has also been very mild…. the average temperature was 57.1° at TF Green, making it the 3rd warmest on record.


Record High Temps Possible Today

November 29th, 2011 at 8:02 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The incredible November warmth continues today with temperatures in most areas in the 50s overnight and reaching highs into the low and mid 60s this afternoon.  I’m forecasting a high of 66° at TF Green Airport, that would break a 21-yr old record.

Record to Beat Today

Record to Beat Today

Temperatures will remain very mild overnight… in the 50s, but a cold front will be moving through.  We’ll see showers with the front–mainly overnight and very early Wednesday morning– before drier and gradually cooler air returns.  If you’re hoping for a long-lasting shot of cold air… it’s still not in the cards.  Temperatures will only return to near-normal highs for the end of the week and weekend.

Through the first 28 days of the month, this has been the 7th warmest November on record in Rhode Island and the 2nd warmest in Boston.  We may move up a few more spots before we close out the month with above average temperatures expected through tomorrow.


Lingering Showers This Afternoon

November 23rd, 2011 at 12:30 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The heavy rain has moved out but lingering lighter showers are possible over the next few hours.  Winds will continue to pick up and temperatures will fall.  There is a wind advisory in effect through late this evening for Boston and the Cape where some gusts to 50mph are possible.  North-northwest winds will gust 35-45mph in RI at times.  While temperatures will be falling, I don’t think they’ll cool enough to support anything other than “plain rain” in our area.  So, overall, travel conditions weather-wise are better for the afternoon commute.

Rainfall totals are between 1″-2.5″.  Ski country is reporting about 6-12″ of snow.  It’s some much-needed “white gold” as they try to kick off the ski season.

 


Rain Continues this Morning

November 23rd, 2011 at 7:41 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Steady rain with torrential downpours continues this morning… with 1-1.5″ of rain already being reported in southern New England as of 7am.  Watch for localized street and poor drainage flooding.

I’ve been checking out the latest computer models and they’re all honing in on a scenario that has most of the rain outta here by 1pm.  There may be a few  lingering lighter showers, but travel (weather-wise) should become easier.  That said–the other big hazard in southern New England will be wind.  Right now there’s a wind advisory for the eastern MA coastline with gusts to near 50mph possible in the afternoon and evening.  Even in RI, some gusts over 40mph are possible.

Safe travels!


Tough Travel Conditions Tomorrow

November 22nd, 2011 at 7:37 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A potent storm system will be traveling through New England tonight and tomorrow just as millions of Americans hit the highways to try to get to grandma’s house for Thanksgiving.  While we’re just forecasting “plain rain” for southern and central New England, we could see quite a bit of it.  In fact, our computer models this morning are still printing out around 2″ of rain in our area.  Most of the heavy rain falls late tonight through 2pm Wednesday, with lighter scattered showers continuing in the afternoon and evening.  The biggest concern for the roads around here will be localized street flooding.

 

It gets a little trickier if you’re headed into northern New England. Rain will mix with and transition to snow across central and northern Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.  The ski resorts are going to be “thankful” for this storm after a very slow start to the season…. they’re getting a little gift from Mother Nature.  In fact, some of our computer models are hinting at more than 1ft of snow possible in ski country!  They’ll have to deal with another slug of very mild air by the weekend. Here’s a map of the 00z GFS forecasted snowfall totals through Thanksgiving morning… it shows a swath of 8-14″ of snow across central VT, NH and western Maine:

GFS Forecast Snow Accums through 7am Thursday

GFS Forecast Snow Accums through 7am Thursday

 

Skies should be sunny for Thanksgiving with gusty winds and cool, dry air.


Hello Novemberrrrrr

November 18th, 2011 at 12:03 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

My trip to the grocery store during my lunch break this morning was filled with people commenting on the weather. What a difference in the air today!  The cold, dry Canadian air has rushed in over the last 24 hours, sending our temperatures from the incredible 60s, back down to reality.  We’re struggling through the 40s this afternoon and wind chills are still in the 30s.


If you’re not a fan of the cold air, you’re in luck… high pressure will shift south of our area this weekend, allowing winds to turn to the southwest.  The winds will tap into milder air, and once again our temps will climb well above average… especially by Sunday.

Milder Temps This Weekend

Milder Temps This Weekend


Dramatic Weather Changes Today

November 17th, 2011 at 9:05 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It was less than 48hrs ago that we hit an incredible high temp of 71° on a mid-November day…. now the temperatures are in a nosedive… and by this evening, we could be dealing with some wet snow showers! The key to seeing the snow is that there has to be enough moisture around by the time the temps cool enough for the snow to make it all the way to the surface .  Bottom line–any snow that develops won’t last long.

It’s quiet this morning.  In fact, there are even some breaks of sun… but another batch of showers will push our way this afternoon… at the same time that cold air is draining into our area.  The result will be afternoon rain showers, mixing with or changing over to some wet snow showers for the evening commute.

Some Wet Snow Possible for Evening Commute

The snow will most likely melt when it hits the pavement, considering that the temps will be above freezing and it’s been so warm over the last 2 weeks–but it may reduce visibility on the roads.

 


Steadier Rain on the Way In

November 16th, 2011 at 12:09 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radarat noon is showing a batch of steadier and, at times, heavier rain approaching our area… slated to move through this afternoon and evening.  While this is just going to be an average rain storm for us… it will likely be  enough rain to cause some localized, brief street flooding.   We’re rapidly losing leaves off of the trees now, and they may be clogging storm drains.

Leaf Clogged Storm Drains

Leaf Clogged Drains Could Lead to Street Flooding this Evening

The showers will continue overnight but will become spotty and lighter.  Thursday will feature mainly cloudy skies, brisk winds, chilly temps and a few lingering lighter showers during the day.  It may be cold enough by Thursday late afternoon and evening to see a few wet snowflakes in areas away from the coast any showers that linger.  The cold air doesn’t last long…. we’re forecasting highs in the 60s again by Sunday!! ~Michelle


Mild Start to November

November 14th, 2011 at 11:34 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After #Snotober moved through Halloween weekend, we’ve been enjoying some fairly tranquil and mild temperatures through much of the first half of November.  In fact, according to preliminary climate data from TF Green Airport, temperatures are averaging 0.5° above normal.  For the first 14 days of the month (including today) exactly half (7) of the days have had high temperatures at 60° or higher… including a high of 70° on November 8.  Nighttime lows have remained mild, too, with only 3 days so far this month at or below freezing. 

We have had some short bursts of colder air, but each time it’s only lasted a few days before being replaced by an unseasonably mild air mass, sending our temps to at or above average highs. 

I don’t see any big changes in the weather pattern for this week, either.  Temperatures through Wednesday should be running well above average… followed by a brief shot of colder air for Thursday and Friday.   But, once again, the cold air doesn’t last long…. the upcoming weekend shows another warm-up. 

 


Foggy Start this Morning

November 9th, 2011 at 11:03 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Fog rolled in from the coast this morning covering the south coast and communities along Narragansett Bay.  We had visibilities below a quarter mile for much of the morning from TF Green Airport south through New Bedford, Newport and Westerly.  By 10am the skies were blue again for most areas.  The fog developed in response to  moist air trapped beneath a high pressure subsidence inversion. 

What is an “inversion”?  An inversion is an area in the atmosphere where the temperature warms with height.  Typically in the low levels of the atmosphere the temperatures cool with height… Take, for example, conditions in Providence compared to the top of Mt Washington (elevation 6,288ft): it’s 57° in Providence as of 10am… and only 41° at the Mt Washington Observitory.  But the atmosphere can have areas of inversions, too,–where the opposite occurs and temperatures warm with height. 

So what is a “high pressure subsidence inversion”???  Well… high pressure–our fair weather friend–promotes sinking air.  As the air sinks it warms, but that doesn’t happen uniformally in all levels of the atmosphere.  An inversion develops where the strongest sinking takes place–that’s typically at about 5,000ft to 15,000ft aloft.  As the moist air coming in off the ocean this morning tried to rise, it became trapped under the dome of subsiding high pressure and was compressed into fog. 

East Providence Fog 11/09/11

East Providence Fog 11/09/11 sent in by WPRI photog Marcos

 

Newport Fog from James Sattel

Newport Fog from James Sattel


Indian Summer On the Way

November 7th, 2011 at 6:23 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Our area will be enjoying some unseasonably warm weather next few days with temperatures running about 5-12° above average for early November.  Seeing as this warm spell follows a period of frosty and cool days, we can officially call it an “Indian Summer”. 

Here’s how the American Meteorological Society defines an Indian Summer:

Indian summer—A period, in mid- or late autumn, of abnormally warm weather, generally clear skies, sunny but hazy days, and cool nights.

In New England, at least one killing frost and preferably a substantial period of normally cool weather must precede this warm spell in order for it to be considered a true “Indian summer.” It does not occur every year, and in some years there may be two or three Indian summers. The term is most often heard in the northeastern United States, but its usage extends throughout English- speaking countries. It dates back at least to 1778, but its origin is not certain; the most probable suggestions relate it to the way that the American Indians availed themselves of this extra opportunity to increase their winter stores. The comparable period in Europe is termed the Old Wives’ summer, and, poetically, may be referred to as halcyon days. In England, dependent upon dates of occurrence, such a period may be called St. Martin’s summer, St. Luke’s summer, and formerly All-hallown summer.

The mild weather should last through Thursday… before we return to more “typical” November temperatures for Friday and the weekend. Enjoy!


3rd Snowiest October Day on Record in RI

October 31st, 2011 at 11:26 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The official numbers are in and the weekend storm will definitely go into the record books.  While our accumulations were relatively minor compared to some parts of New England (some locales in the Berkshires topped 30″!!) it was still an historic storm.  In fact, Sunday was the 3rd snowiest October day on record at TF Green Airport with 1.2″ of snow.  The actual storm total was slightly over 2″ but it was spread over 2 days–Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

Snowiest October Days on Record in RI


Winter Storm Watch Issued

October 28th, 2011 at 7:26 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Morning,

There is growing concern about a potentially significant early winter storm that could bring rain, strong winds and some wet snow to our area.  If this storm was happening in a few months from now, we’d be talking about more than a 1ft of snow in spots.  But, because it’s still October and ocean water temps are still very mild… it will be much tougher to get low level temperatures cold enough to see snow.  That said–this storm does have the potential to bring enough snow to parts of our area to break out the plows and shovels!! 

At the moment our computer models are still showing slight variations in the track of the storm… either inside or outside of “the Benchmark”—the 40N/70W Lat/Lon Lines.  If the storm were to track closer to the coast (inside the Benchmark) we’d be looking at mostly rain with some wet snow on Saturday night.  If the storm tracks further away (over or just outside the benchmark) we could be looking at accumulating snow starting early Saturday evening and continuing through Saturday night.

TIMING:  Rain overspreads our area Saturday afternoon…. may begin to mix with snow far inland around sunset.  The changeover and/or mix with snow will happen north to south through the late evening.  Rain, mix and/or snow will continue through Saturday night before tapering off by early Sunday morning.

IMPACTS:  Heavy rain leading to poor drainage/street flooding.  Wet snow will lead to slippery roads and reduced visibility Saturday night.  We are also concerned about the potential for power outages where heavy snow occurs–the weight of the snow on tree limbs and branches combined with strong north-northeast winds could lead to downed trees and branches.

AMOUNTS:  Predicting snowfall accumulation amounts with this storm is very tricky…. At the moment I’m looking at a coating to perhaps 2″ of snow for a good part of our area… upwards of 6″ possible in the northwest corner of the state.  This is all going to be dependant on the eventual track of the storm.  The area that ends up with the highest snowfall totals (right now looks to be in central/western MA) could see 6-12″ of snow.  Here are some maps from NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center on the probability of snowfall:

Probability of 4" of Snow from 8am Sat through 8am Sun

Probability of 8" of Snow From 8am Sat through 8am Sun

Probability of 12" of Snow From 8am Sat through 8am Sun

More information is constantly coming in.  Definitely check back in for updates!


First Flakes of the Season on the Way??

October 26th, 2011 at 10:59 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

In one word–yes!  We are still looking at the potential for some wet flakes in our inland areas on Thursday evening and night.  There may even be enough to leave a brief coating on grassy surfaces in our northwest corner of the state—Foster/Glocester I’m talking about you. 

Here is some of the brand new data  just coming in late this morning, that continues to indicate at least a brief period of wet snow from Providence and points north and west:

NAM Model Predicted Snowfall Accumlations Through 2am Friday

The map above comes from the 12z Wednesday (8am EDT) North American Model (NAM).  It continues to show the potential for some accumulating snow in central MA and some very light snow in northern RI. The light pink color is a coating to 1″ , the dark pink is 1-2″ and the blue color is 2-3″.   

GFS Model Predicted Snowfall Accums though 2am Friday

This map is another computer model, the 06z (2am Wednesday) GFS. It also shows predicted snowfall accumulations through 2am Friday.  Once again it has northern RI as an area with the potential to see a coating of snow.  The heavier accumulations are a little further north  on the GFS with a few inches predicted in northern MA and southern NH/VT.


Hurricane of 1938 Anniversary

September 21st, 2011 at 11:20 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Today marks the 73rd anniversary of the Great New England Hurricane of 1938., also known as the “Long Island Express”.  It is one of the most destructive and powerful storms to ever hit New England.  It roared ashore in a time before modern tracking tools, like satellites, were available…… catching New Eglanders off-guard.  Based on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale it would have been a strong Category 3 hurricane at landfall with winds sustained at 121mph and gusts to 186mph.  It decimated downtown Providence, flooding the city with a storm tide of nearly 20ft.

Here’s a Purdue University map that shows the track of the hurricane:

Hurricane of 1938 Track

Here are some additional stats:

–More than 600 Deaths in New Enland

–Almost 9000 buildings destroyed

–More than 3000 boats destroyed or damaged

–50ft waves in Glocester, MA

–Storm Surge of 15-20ft

–Raced north at 58mph

This is a story that TJ Delsanto did last year at the Anniversary.  It includes some video and Eyewitness accounts.


Dreary Days Ahead

September 6th, 2011 at 8:59 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After summer heat and humidity for the Labor Day weekend, we’re beginning this shortened school/work week with rain, drizzle, chilly temps and some gusty winds.  It’s all due to a cold front that swept in this morning, bringing a rapid 10 degree drop in temperatures and gusts over 30mph+ .  Those gusty winds actually knocked out power to a few thousand people in our area. 

The front gets hung up along our coast today through Thursday with more showers, plenty of clouds and unseasonably cool temperatures continuing.   Rainfall totals look to be between 1-2″… not expected to be enough to cause river flooding, but enough to create a nuisance with some localized street and poor drainage flooding.


Meteorological Summer Coming to an End

August 31st, 2011 at 10:13 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Today marks the end of the meteorological summer, which runs from June 1-August 31.  The calendar version runs another 3 weeks until the autumnal equinox on September 23. 

Here’s what the Climate Prediction Center has to say about the next three months:  The climatologists are forecasting Above Average Temperatures in New England for the period from September 1 through November 30 with average precipitation. 

Autumn Temperatures

Precipitation Forecast for Autumn

Forecasters take in account whether we are in an El Nino or La Nina… which this Autumn looks to remain neutral with a slight lean toward La Nina conditions which may re-emerge by winter.  They also use a combination of long-range computer models that are hinting at a warmer than average Autumn. 


Dry Skies for Days

August 30th, 2011 at 10:52 am by under Consumer, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

If you’re like me and still without power at your home, then at least the weather is cooperating—it’s dry, it’s sunny, it’s seasonable and it’s not humid.  The nights have been comfortable for sleeping without A/C or a fan on and the warm sunshine in the afternoons means all the kids can be outside playing. This stretch of fine late-summer (dare I say, “almost early-Autumn-like”) weather will continue through the end of the work week. 

There are some slight changes down the road… another cool front pushs through on Thursday, bringing a shot of dry, cool air.  It will be accompanied by some clouds, but looks to be moisture-starved (ie: rain-free).  The humidity begins to build on Saturday and the upcoming Labor Day weekend will feature the risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm–though definitely NOT a washout.  The best chance of having to dodge the raindrops looks to be on Sunday night and Monday morning.


Power Outages

August 29th, 2011 at 1:03 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The Rhode Island Emergency Management Agency has just finished an afternoon news conference talking about yesterday’s storm and today’s efforts to get the 280,000+ residents that are still without electricity today. 

Our reporter Walt Buteau asked a great question to the reprentative from National Grid, “why were there so many power outages in this ‘tropical storm’… when we’ve had worse storms?”  The spokesman from National Grid said what our weather team had been forecasting… that it was the long duration of these pounding winds in excess of 50mph that uprooted so many trees and downed so many powerlines.  We had about 12 hours of strong, damaging winds that combined with 2-5″ of rain on already soggy ground caused the statewide numerous power outages. 

They are telling folks to continue to be patient, that this is a multi-day event and it may be until the end of the week until everyone’s power is restored.  I must say that, while I’ve been without power before, it’s a new challenge to be without electricity with a toddler and infant to care for.


Abundant Sun

August 29th, 2011 at 7:18 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’re waking up to sunshine and much lighter winds this morning…. a trend that will continue over the next few days.  Wind speeds diminished significantly after 2am and the threat of damaging winds has come to an end.  That said… there may be a few gusts to 15-20mph from the west today. 

It’s unsettling, as I looked at my neighborhood yesterday and saw all of the pictures and reports sent in to WPRI, that all of this damage was caused by “just” a tropical storm…. and one that was centered nearly 200mi away from RI!  Irene was a force to be reckoned with–even as it weakened. 

All of our local rivers are back below flood stage this morning, and additional flooding is not expected in our area.  Here’s a wrap up of the winds in our area yesterday. 

Peak Winds on Sunday

Peak Gusts on Sunday


Irene makes landfall in NC

August 27th, 2011 at 8:16 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Hurricane Irene has made landfall in NC at 8am.  The storm has weakened slightly further with sustained winds at 85mph… a Cat 1 storm.  Irene will probably continue to weaken as it moves over eastern NC this morning but is still forecasted to be a hurricane as it approaches New England.  Forecast for RI/SE Mass remains unchanged…. A stormy day Sunday with trop storm force winds likely (perhaps gusts to hurricane strength at the south coast) and potentially high storm surge causing damage at high tide (around 8am and 8pm).

 


Irene Looking a Bit Ragged on Satellite

August 27th, 2011 at 7:14 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good morning… Irene has weakened further this morning and is looking a bit ragged on satellite images as drier air over land gets pulled into the storm and the hurricane begins moving over the NC coast.  It’s still a large storm… and just because it’s weakened and is “only a Cat 1) doesn’t mean that we can become complacent.

We are still looking at a windfield that is expansive…. hurricane force winds extend out 90 MILES!!! and trop. storm force winds extend out 260miles!!  That means that we will begin getting these stronger winds well out ahead of the storm and lasting for a long duration (up to 12hrs) into Sunday.  In fact, even if Irene weakens to a trop storm before reaching New England, potential wind damage is still expected.  The strongest winds will be on the south coast where gusts over hurricane strength are possible.

The other main concern is storm surge flooding…. we’ll have to watch at both high tides (around 8am Sun AM and 8pm Sun evening)…. but our computer models are speeding up the timing of Irene even further this morning… and I’m beginning to think the AM high tide may be the big issue.  During this time storm surge flooding could reach 5-10ft in RI and 3-6ft in SE MA.  This is a very dangerous and potentially deadly situation for coastal residents.

Here are a few maps this morning.  I’ll post another update after the National Hurricane Center sends out it’s next advisory at 8am. ~Michelle

NHC Forecast Probability of Trop. Storm Force Winds

NHC Forecast for Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities


A Faster Pace from Irene

August 26th, 2011 at 12:51 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data in this afternoon is showing a slightly weaker and faster-paced Hurricane Irene.  The path from the National Hurricane Center remains unchanged, but the storm may stay a Cat. 2 Hurricane as it roars into coastal North Carolina and weaken to a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches Long Island.  The storm is going to pick up pace as it moves into the cooler waters north of the Carolinas and is now looking about 3-6hrs faster…. with the height of the storm from mid-morning into late afternoon/early evening.  We’ll watch and see if this trend continues.   ~Michelle


Potential Wind-Related Damage From Irene

August 26th, 2011 at 9:20 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Just wanted to quickly post 2 graphics about potential wind damage from a Category 1 and Category 2 hurricane.  This does not take into account storm surge or rain-related flooding. 

Cat. 1 Hurricane Wind Damage

Cat 2 Hurricane Wind Damage

 

All of this information was taken from the National Hurricane Center website.  Here’s a link to a more detailed explanation: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/sshws_table.shtml?large


Hurricane Watch Issued for Southern New England

August 26th, 2011 at 6:41 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Two big headlines early this morning:

1) Hurricane Watch Issued for southern New England’s coast

The watch includes Narragansett Bay.  That means most of our major cities are under a hurricane watch… including Providence, Narragansett, East Greenwich, Warwick, Cranston, Barrington, Bristol, Newport, New Bedford and Fall River.  A Tropical Storm Watch issued for northwest RI and northern Bristol and Plymouth Counties in MA.  A “Watch” means there is the potential for these conditions within the next 48 hrs.

2) The track of the hurricane has shifted slightly east .

The shift in the track now has a potential landfall over central Long Island and Central CT.  The storm is expected to be a Category 1 hurricane as it makes landfall in New England… there is still a slight chance that it could be a low end Cat 2 hurricane.  On the latest forecasted track, RI would be closer to the center of the storm and on the eastern side–with potential for significant wind damage and storm surge/coastal flooding.  Weak tornadoes are also possible.  There is still time for the track and the intensity of the hurricane to change slightly…. though a signifcant impact from Irene is expected at this point.

More details to come this morning.  ~Michelle


Thursday Morning Update

August 25th, 2011 at 7:22 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Morning.  Hurricane Irene remains a major hurricane this Thursday morning with 115mph sustained winds and gusts to 140mph.  Its expected to start to take on more of a north-northwest then northerly turn over the next day or 2, with a forecast track that moves over the Outer Banks of NC then hugs the mid-Atlantic coastline before crossing Long Island and CT on Sunday. 

Thursday 5am Update from National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Watches have been issued for the North Carolina area…. a watch means hurricane conditions are “possible” in the next 48hrs.  I expect additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm watches to be issued further north as we head into the end of the work week.

Our computer models overnight trended a bit west with the storm track… with nearly every model now showing a landfalling HURRICANE in New England on Sunday.  That means our area will likely be significantly impacted by this storm.  It’s a large storm (hurricane force winds extend outwards 70mi from the center of Irene) so even if the eye stays well west of our area, we would still see damaging winds, some heavy rain and dangerous storm surge. 

Thursday Morning Computer Models

If you have not already done so, now if the time to prepare…. we have many helpful links on our website.  http://www.wpri.com/generic/weather/hurricane/more_storm_ready

I’ll keep updating you through the day…. We should have another update from the National Hurricane Center at 8am.  ~Michelle