Michelle Muscatello

Rain Ending as Brief Snow Showers Tonight

December 6th, 2013 at 12:40 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Cold front has made it through southern New England this noontime with temperatures slowly starting to fall across our area.  It’s a front that’s made headlines across the nation for bringing bitter cold temperatures and snow and ice.  We’ve been able to keep all of that out of New England, but tonight parts of our area will finally get a brief taste of it.

While it’s not “major” in our area, some light snow showers are possible after midnight.  The transition to wintry weather will happen this evening in central and western MA and NW CT where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect:

Winter Weather Advisory Area is in Purple

Winter Weather Advisory Area is in Deep Purple

In that area, small accumulations of 1-3″ can be expected.  The rain won’t transition to snow showers until around midnight or later in RI, and accumulation amounts will be held to a coating of snow, primarily in northern suburbs.

Snow Accumulations This Evening and Tonight

Snow Accumulations This Evening and Tonight

The cold air will settle in for the weekend with below normal highs, especially on Sunday.  We’re still keeping an eye on Sunday night (after midnight) and early Monday morning.  We’ll have to watch for slick roads from a period of snow, sleet and freezing rain.  Be sure to check in for updates to the forecast throughout the weekend.


Damaging Winds Occurring this Morning

November 27th, 2013 at 6:55 am by under General Talk, Thanksgiving Futurecast, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s been a very difficult morning for travelers with the combination of heavy rain and strong, damaging winds.  Here’s a look at our latest wind gusts as of 7am: temp 1

In addition, we’re getting reports of significant street flooding–leading to streets being closed and numerous spin-outs during this morning’s commute.  So far, rainfall totals are between 1-2.5″ and could end up being as high as 3-4″ in spots.  Flight delays and cancellations are beginning to mount at the major northeast airports and can be expected through the day.


Thanksgiving Travel Update

November 26th, 2013 at 12:07 pm by under General Talk, Thanksgiving Futurecast, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The forecast remains on track for a significant wind and rain storm to impact southern New England from tonight through Wednesday.

The center of the storm has been gathering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico over the last 24 hours and is now making it’s way into the southeast US.  Here’s an update on the storm timing for our area:storm-timeline

 

In terms of rainfall amounts, latest data in as of noon on Tuesday is still pointing to widespread 1.5″ to 3.5″ of rain over RI, southeastern MA and eastern CT.

RPM 12z Model Accumulated Precipitation through 7am Thursday

RPM 12z Model Accumulated Precipitation through 7am Thursday

Based on growing confidence in a period of heavy rain, the National Weather Service has placed our area under a “Flood Watch” from late tonight into Wednesday afternoon.  The main concern is for localized street and poor drainage flooding.  Smaller rivers and streams could also see rapid rises in water levels, but our major rivers should stay within their banks.  In addition our area is now under a “High Wind Warning” for the potential for south and southeasterly gusts up to 40-60mph.  Winds of that strength could lead to wind damage and power outages.  The wind warning is from 4am Wednesday through 1pm Wednesday.

Due to the height of the storm in the northeast falling on the busiest travel day of the year, delays in the air and on the roads can be expected.  Delays could be significant… especially prior to 5pm on Wednesday.


Thanksgiving Travel Update

November 25th, 2013 at 8:25 am by under General Talk, Thanksgiving Futurecast, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Here is the latest thinking as of Monday Morning, November 25:

Our computer models have come into good agreement with the storm system moving up the East Coast of the United States on Wednesday.  While confidence is high that New England will get hit by the storm, the latest indications are that, given the storm track, it will bring RAIN and WIND to the major cities of the northeast—from DC/Baltimore to Philly, NYC and Boston this will be a heavy rain maker.  In fact, even far northern New England will see mostly rain from this latest storm with the rain/snow line pushed far to the west–into northern and western New York State and southeast Canada.  That’s good news for pre-Thanksgiving travels; however, any unsettled weather on this busy travel day will likely lead to some delays on the roads and in the air.

The latest runs of the NAM, GFS and ECWMF computer models this morning all show a storm track through western CT on Wednesday morning:

06Z NAM Wednesday

06Z  NAM valid Wednesday Morning

00z GFS Wednesday

00z GFS valid Wednesday Morning

This inland would mean a strong southerly wind in RI/SE MA and temperatures soaring to near 60 during the day.  With that in mind, the biggest concerns will be the potential for heavy rain leading to localized street and poor drainage flooding along with perhaps some minor small stream flooding.

TIMING:

Begins: Light showers arrive after 4pm on Tuesday

Heaviest: From 12am to 12pm on Wednesday

Ends: Showers taper off Wednesday evening

IMPACTS:

Rainfall: 2-3″ of rain likely with isolated amounts to near 4″.

Winds:  South winds 20-30mph with gusts 40-50mph.  Isolated wind damage/power outages possible.

Some travel impacts can be expected from this storm, though not as significant as if wintry weather were impacting the area.  Heavy rain could lead to localized street and poor drainage flooding and slowed travel on local roadways–especially through the first half of  Wednesday.

Air delays should not be too significant due to the storm (volume of travelers causing delays is an entirely different story).

THANKSGIVING THURSDAY: 

Rain is outta here on Wednesday night with dry skies and MUCH COLDER conditions for Thanksgiving.  Temperatures will be in the mid 30s with wind chills in the ‘teens.  Football fields will be soggy from Wednesday’s rain, but dry skies are expected for the high school games.  temp 2

 

 


Rocket Launch This Evening

November 19th, 2013 at 12:42 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

An evening rocket launch out of Virginia will be visible here in southern New England, and it looks like great weather for the viewing!  Under clear skies, RI’ers should keep an eye out for the launch of a record number of satellite’s through NASA and the US Military’s Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) Office– 29 satellites to be exact– which could create a stunning site for millions of sky watchers along the US East Coast.  The rocket launch, dubbed ORS-3, will take place between 7:30pm-9:30pm.

 This map shows how visible the launch will be on the East Coast.

This map shows how visible the launch will be on the East Coast.

For optimum viewing in our area, try to get a clear, unobstructed view of the horizon facing southeast–in the direction of Wallops Island, Virginia.  The trajectory should be about 15° above the horizon.

Click here for more information.

Live coverage of the launch is also available via UStream beginning at 6:30 p.m. EST on launch day at: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nasa-tv-wallops.

Launch status can be followed on launch day on Twitter at: http://www.twitter.com/NASA_Wallops and Facebook at: http://www.facebook.com/NASAWFF.

 

 


Snow Showers Possible Early Tuesday Morning

November 11th, 2013 at 9:57 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Dry skies and just a bit breezy and cool for this Veterans day… the weather is looking great for any parades and ceremonies through the day.

Veterans Day

Veterans Day

High pressure controls our weather today ahead of an approaching cold front that will swing through late tonight and early tomorrow morning.   That front will usher in December-like temperatures for a few days.  Brrr!  But the big headline with it will be the potential for a period of snow showers–all the way down to the coast!  We’re looking at rain showers beginning after midnight, and they could mix with, or change to a few wet snow showers between 5-8am.  Temperatures will be above freezing through the night and early morning (upper 30s by dawn), so most of the snow showers will melt  as they hit the pavement.  IF we see a brief burst of heavier snow, a light dusting could form on some colder surfaces and briefly reduce visibility for early morning commuters.

06z RPM Model valid at 6am Tuesday

06z RPM Model valid at 6am Tuesday

Highs behind the front will only be in the low 40s on Tuesday afternoon and may just briefly hit 40 on Wednesday before milder air returns for late week.


Threat of Damaging Wind Gusts Continue

November 1st, 2013 at 10:46 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

What a way to start November!  It’s be a wild Friday morning, with gusty winds, temperatures near 70 and scattered showers.  While we’ve seen a few gusts over 40mph so far this morning, our main concern is a potentially damaging line of heavy rain and wind that’s been moving across western New England and will be in Rhode Island by lunchtime.  This “squall line” of severe thunderstorms–with little to no thunder and lightning– has had a history of producing wind gusts 50-60mph and has been responsible for downed trees, power outages and many airport delays.  As it moves through, we could see some wind damage here, too.  1146260_675522072481838_1683348954_o

Our wind advisory continues until 6pm this evening, but the strongest winds will likely be through mid-afternoon.  That’s around the time that most of the showers will be exiting the region, too… with drier weather and diminishing winds expected for this evening.


High Wind Watch Late Tonight through Friday

October 31st, 2013 at 8:34 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Morning,

As Tony mentioned in his blog post yesterday, an approaching cold front will be bringing strong winds, and, as of this morning, much of our area is under a HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through late Friday afternoon.  The watch means there is the potential for damaging winds.  The area of main concern is closer to the coast through SE MA, but even interior parts of RI could see some gusts to near 50mph on Friday.  High Wind Watch

TIMING:  Strongest winds will be from 7am-2pm on Friday.  But  this evening winds will be picking up and strengthening through the night.

WIND SPEEDS:  The latest data in from our computer models this morning is continuing to show the potential for strong southwesterly winds.  Gusts will be about 25-35mph during trick-or-treating this evening and then strengthen overnight.  By early Friday morning some gusts over 40mph are possible, with an occasional gust to 50-55mph.

IMPACTS:  We still have a lot of leaves on our trees, but many are ready to drop, so there will be many leaves that come down… in addition winds of this strength could bring down some tree limbs, branches and even isolated trees, leading to potential power outages.  If you have a lot of Halloween decorations in your yard, make sure they are secured.

RAINFALL:  About 1/2″ of rain…. it’s been very dry through October, so stream and river flooding will not be a concern.  However, leaf-clogged storm drains could lead to localized street and poor drainage flooding.

 


“Karen” to Threaten Gulf Coast States

October 3rd, 2013 at 9:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

National Hurricane Center has just issued it’s first advisory on “Tropical Storm Karen”, our latest name storm of the 2013 hurricane season.  Here’s what the National Hurricane just released as of 9am:

TS Karen

TS Karen

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

Hurricane “Watches” have been issued for the Gulf Coast of the US from Grand Isle, LA to Indian Pass, FL.

This storm is expected to make landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico (possibly near the Florida Panhandle) this weekend and then hook up with a slow moving cold front heading across the eastern US.  Some of the moisture from Karen’s remnants could bring tropical downpours to our area by Monday into Tuesday.  Stay tuned!


Warming Trend on the Way

September 18th, 2013 at 9:19 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Boy was it chilly this morning!  With quite a few of our more rural areas falling into the 30s overnight it was one of the coldest morning of the season.

Wednesday Morning Lows

Wednesday Morning Lows

There is change in the air though, as a steady warm-up is slated for the 2nd half of the week, finishing with slightly warmer than normal temperatures by Friday afternoon.  And the best part–we’re going to stay storm free!  High pressure which brought the cold, dry Canadian air on Monday sliding east.  As it does, winds are shifting to a warmer southwest direction.  The result will be highs today about 8-10° warmer than yesterday.  By Friday afternoon, inland areas will be in the upper 70s!

Warming Trend

Warming Trend

Our next weather system is a cold front slated for Sunday which will likely bring a few showers to our area.


One More Round of Storms

September 3rd, 2013 at 9:32 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Water-logged residents of the West Bay can’t let their guard down yet… we have another round of thunderstorms in the forecast today.  We’re already tracking storms that began developing over Long Island early this morning and the storms will start to fire up over RI/SE Massachusetts by late morning and/or early afternoon.  The set-up for thunderstorms development is a bit different than the last few days.  The storms will form along and ahead of an approaching cold front… the front will provide more instability–aided by some morning sun–and the potential will be there for strong to severe thunderstorms.  The storms will move quicker than the last few days, so rainfall totals should be as high. However, there is still a risk for torrential rains  to lead to some flash flooding, but we’ll also have a risk damaging winds, hail and frequent lightning.

As far as the flash flood threat–it is something we are concerned about–particularly for towns and cities like Cranston, West Warwick, Coventry and West Greenwich which bore the brunt of the heavy rainfall on Sunday and Monday.  The ground is saturated and the Pawtuxet River water levels are still running high (but are below flood stage this morning) and any additional heavy rain in those communities will lead to possible flooding.  Please stay tuned to WPRI and Fox Providence and www.wpri.com for the latest as we track the storms.

The storms will start to wind down by late afternoon with clearing skies and drier air moving in through the evening and night.


A Warmer Week Ahead

August 19th, 2013 at 8:28 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Temperatures will be warming up this week… it will be the hottest stretch of weather since mid-July!

From Channel 12 Eyewitness News Meteorologist Michelle Muscatello, here is your updated Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 7 Day Futurecast:

TODAY:   Warmer, dry with a mix of sun and clouds.  Highs in the mid 80s inland and near 80 at the coast.  Winds from the west-southwest 5-12mph.

TONIGHT:  Partly cloudy start and then clearing towards dawn… lows in the low 60s.

TUESDAY:  Mostly sunny and a bit more humid with highs in the mid to upper 80′s.

WEDNESDAY:  Mostly sunny, hazy, hot and humid.. Highs around 89.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny, very warm, humid. Highs in upper 80s. Chance for a few thunderstorms or showers in the evening and night.

FRIDAY:  Partly sunny with a chance of showers lingering, especially in the morning… not as hot with highs near 83.

SATURDAY:  Sunny, more seasonable with highs around 79.

SUNDAY:  Sunny and seasonable with highs around 81.


Is the Extreme Heat Over till Next Summer?

August 5th, 2013 at 12:35 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

What a refreshing start to the work week!  Temperatures began in the 50s this morning, and with the ultra-low humidity and highs in the 70s the air had a touch of Autumn in it.  For those that wait all year for Autumn’s comfortable days, it was a pleasant change from the extreme heat and humidity that brought us record warmth for the month of July in RI.  So is this the start of early Fall?  That may be a bit of a stretch, as surges of heat (80s and even 90s) are still quite normal well into September… However, we don’t see any extreme heat around here through the middle of August.  In fact, temperatures during the next 10-14 days look to average out near or slightly below normal.  Here’s what the Climate Prediction center shows for August 12-18, with cooler than average temperatures for much of the central and eastern US:

CPC Temperature Outlook for Aug 12-18

CPC Temperature Outlook for Aug 12-18

The reason for the cooler air is due in part to a dip– or trough– in the jet stream over the central and eastern US.  This will give us shots of Canadian air behind departing weather disturbances… so not only do we have a good shot at a cooler start to the month, but also wetter than normal, too.

CPC Precipitation Probability for Aug 12-18

CPC Precipitation Probability for Aug 12-18

 


Calculating the Heat Index

July 16th, 2013 at 9:18 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Lots of talk this month with all of this sultry weather about the “heat index”.  As Tony mentioned last night, it’s a calculation that meteorologists use in the summertime to give you a sense of how the weather “feels”.  Another way to describe it is the “apparent temperature” combining the air temperature and the relative humidity.  It’s similar to the way we use the wind chill in the wintertime to give you an idea of how cold it “feels” to your body, but in the winter we combine the temperature and the winds.

Here’s a heat index chart from the National Weather Service that describes how humidity affects how the temperature feels to our bodies.

 

temp 2

Something to keep in mind is that the values were devised for shady, light wind conditions.  If you’re exposed to full sunshine… the heat index values can jump up to 15°!

Here are some tips and symptoms of heat related illnesses from the National Weather Service:

During extremely hot and humid weather the body’s ability to cool itself is affected. When the body heats too rapidly to cool itself properly, or when too much fluid or salt is lost through dehydration or sweating, body temperature rises and heat-related illnesses may develop.

Factors or conditions that can make some people more susceptible to heat-related illnesses include age (older adults and young children), obesity, fever, heart disease, mental illness, poor circulation, prescription drug and alcohol use, and sunburn. Sunburn, caused by ultraviolet radiation from the sun, can significantly retard the skin’s ability to shed excess heat.

Heat-Related Illness Symptoms and First Aid

HEAT CRAMPS

  • Symptoms:
    • Painful muscle cramps and spasms usually in legs and abdomen
    • Heavy sweating
  • First Aid:
    • Apply firm pressure on cramping muscles or gentle massage to relieve spasm.
    • Give sips of water, if nausea occurs, discontinue water

HEAT EXHAUSTION

  • Symptoms:
    • Heavy sweating
    • Weakness
    • Cool, pale, clammy skin
    • Weak pulse
    • Possible muscle cramps
    • Dizziness
    • Nausea and vomiting
    • Fainting
    • Normal temperature possible
  • First Aid:
    • Move person to a cooler environment
    • Remove or loosen clothing
    • Apply cool, wet cloths
    • Fan or move victim to air conditioned room
    • Offer sips of water. If nausea occurs, discontinue water. If vomiting continues, seek immediate medical attention.

HEAT STROKE (or sunstroke)

  • Symptoms:
    • Altered mental state
    • Possible throbbing headache, confusion, nausea, dizziness, shallow breathing
    • High body temperature (106°F or higher)
    • Skin may be hot and dry, or patient may be sweating
    • Rapid pulse
    • Possible unconsciousness
  • First Aid:
    • Heat stroke is a severe medical emergency. Summon emergency medical assistance or get the victim to a hospital immediately. Delay can be fatal.
    • Move the victim to a cooler, preferably air-conditioned, environment
    • Reduce body temperature with a water mister and fan or sponging
    • Use fan if heat index temperatures are below the high 90s
    • Use extreme caution
    • If temperature rises again, repeat process
    • Do NOT give fluids

Heat Wave is Over

July 9th, 2013 at 9:46 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After 5 straight days at 90° or higher, we woke up to some relief today!

Heat Wave

Heat Wave

A weak front sitting over southern New England has brought a shift in the winds and some cooler temperatures.  The trade-off is that we’re beginning the day with an abundance of low clouds, fog and mist.  The clouds will be stubborn, but the early July sun is strong and by mid-day we should be seeing some peeks of hazy sun.  The air temperature will be running about 8-10F cooler than yesterday, making it a much more comfortable day for summer camps and working outside.

With a front hanging around, though, we’ll also have to watch for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms… mainly in the afternoon and early evening.  The same goes for Wednesday… morning fog/clouds and a chance of a shower or thunderstorm popping up.

By Thursday a stronger cold front will move into New England bringing a good chance of showers and storms–some of them could be strong or severe in the afternoon and evening.  With any luck, the front will sweep off-shore by Friday morning and bring a stretch of dry and slightly more comfortable weather for the weekend.  If the front gets hung up at our coast we could be looking at the showers lingering for a while longer.

 


Microburst Vs Tornado Damage

July 2nd, 2013 at 9:43 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We saw a number of tornado warnings and flash flood warnings yesterday across CT and MA as severe thunderstorms erupted in the early and mid-afternoon.  We’ve had at least one tornado confirmed–near Windsor Locks, CT–and several other areas with damage being investigated by the National Weather Service.  In one community–Agawam, MA–the team of surveyors from the NWS in Taunton found that the damage was done by a “microburst” rather than a tornado.  Sometimes, it can be difficult to determine whether a storm is producing a tornado or a microburst simply by analyzing the radar alone… that’s why teams are sent out to assess the damage after the fact.  By looking at the direction of the damage, storm surveyors can tell whether it was straight line winds that brought down trees, etc or converging winds from a tornado leading to the damage.  Here’s a visual example:

Microburst vs Tornado Damage

Microburst vs Tornado Damage

A microburst is caused by a strong, but small down burst of destructive winds less than 2.5mi in diameter and lasting only 2-5 minutes.  However small, the damage can be significant.  In one part of Agawam, MA yesterday as many as 40-50 trees were uprooted, wires down and several cars crushed by fallen trees.

Thunderstorm Downburst

Thunderstorm Down burst

A tornado is a   violently rotating column of air that descends from a thunderstorm cloud and is in contact with the ground.  Tornadoes are much more rare than straight line wind damage.

As far as today… the main concern from any thunderstorms will be heavy downpours leading to flash flooding.  The risk is greatest over areas in western CT and western MA.  There is a small risk for damaging winds, including an isolated tornado–especially given that the environment is similar to yesterday–tropical air, stalled front, and stronger than normal mid and upper level winds.

Here’s the outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for today–a 2% chance of a tornado and a 5% chance of straight line wind damage:

Tornado Probability

Tornado Probability

 Wind Damage Probability

Wind Damage Probability

 


The Beat Goes On…

June 28th, 2013 at 9:20 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over the northeast through today, the weekend and, at least the early part of next week.  As Tony mentioned in his last post, we’re in an atmospheric traffic jam… one that will continue pump in the high humidity and the potential for soaking storms. This morning was evidence of that, as our area saw a quick 1/2″ to 1″ of rainfall with frequent lightning and gusty storms.

Skies try to brighten up for the late morning/afternoon… with hazy sun adding fuel to the already charged atmosphere… leading to the risk of more thunderstorms.  It looks like there’s a higher risk to our west—through PA, NY, CT… however the Storm Prediction Center does have our area under a slight risk for severe storms.  We’re also concerned about the potential for these storms to have rotating updrafts–which could lead to funnel clouds and perhaps an actual tornado touching down…. right now, there’s about a 2% chance of a tornado.

Tornado Probability

Tornado Probability

Much more likely with these storms would be localized flash flooding due to the torrential downpours and some gusty, damaging winds.

Severe Wind Probability

Severe Wind Probability

This weekend will still feature the chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in spots… certainly won’t be raining all the time… but when it rains it pours, with heavy downpours and possible localized flooding.


More Heat, Humidity and Thunderstorms

June 25th, 2013 at 9:17 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Here we go again… another day of sultry air, temperatures in the 90s and the threat of late day thunderstorms.  Much like yesterday, the temperatures are warming quickly….already hitting 80 at 9am with the heat index in the low 80s.  We’ll climb into the low 90s for highs inland, and low 80s at the beaches.  The heat index will be about 5° higher than the air temperature.

It doesn’t take much in the high heat and humidity to spark another round of thunderstorms, and they are in the forecast for today.  In fact, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has much of southern New England under a slight risk for severe storms later this afternoon.

SPC Outlook

SPC Outlook

The biggest threat with any storms developing today will be for torrential rain, strong, damaging wind gusts–40-50mph , hail and lightning.

Damaging Wind Outlook

Damaging Wind Outlook

And get used to this forecast…. while the temperatures won’t be quite as hot as the week goes on, the air will be very muggy, and the weather pattern will be stagnant, with the risk of showers and thunderstorms each of the next 7 days.  In fact, I don’t see any major changes in the weather pattern (warm, humid, showers and thunderstorms) right through the 4th of July.  Because the air is so “juicy” (ie: very moist) any t’showers that develop will have the potential to drop heavy rain.  It looks like our lawns will be staying lush over the next week or two.


Summertime!

June 21st, 2013 at 11:33 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Summer has officially arrived!  The solstice occurred at 1:04am this morning, marking the beginning of the summer season in the northern hemisphere.  And it’s going to be a great kick-off to summer today–mostly sunny skies, warm temperatures and low humidity.  Temperatures will be in the low 80s inland and in the 70s at the beaches.

The solstice occurs when the sun’s direct rays hit their northern most point–23.5°N–the Tropic of Cancer.  As that occurs we have more hours of daylight and a stronger sun angle on this day (and the days surrounding it) than at any other time of the year.  By Monday morning, our sunrise will begin to get a little later and every day or two we’ll lose a minute of daylight… so enjoy today’s 15 hours and 14 minutes of daylight!!

Summer Solstice

Summer Solstice

We are going to have a fantastic weekend for southern New England summertime favorites–beach, boating, pool weather will all be at it’s best… with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures.  While we’ve had a break from high humidity, that will begin to change by late Saturday and especially Sunday as dew point temperatures creep up, giving our air a “muggy” feel.

The warmth and high humidity will stick around –pun intended–into at least the middle of next week.


Another Round Today

June 18th, 2013 at 9:12 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

What an evening… from stormy skies to vibrant rainbows we had a changing and beautiful show in southern New England at the end of the day Monday… we were lucky that most of the thunderstorms were dying out as the made their way into southeastern New England and we missed the damaging winds and hail that CT and central MA had.  Instead, we were graced with gorgeous double rainbows that were visible for most of our area… and the pictures flew in to WPRI.  One of my favorites was this shot from Erin Stevens of the rainbow over Providence.

from Erin Stevens

from Erin Stevens

We have a gallery of rainbow photos on our website here.

There will be a cold front slowly sliding across southern New England again today that will lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms… mostly between 4-8pm.  With extra  clouds and cooler temperatures the risk of widespread severe storms is lower that yesterday… however, there could be some isolated strong storms with heavy rain and dangerous lightning.  As the front slides south the risk of showers will come to an end through the night with lingering clouds.  Behind the front will come a stretch of refreshing air with low humidity and comfortable temperatures for Wednesday into Friday.


Rain Moving In

June 13th, 2013 at 9:04 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Our parade of storms continues with another round of soaking rain on the way for today into Friday.  We’re getting used to–and sick of this–another FLOOD WATCH issued for all of RI and most of SE MA through Saturday morning.

It’s low pressure moving our way that will be responsible for rain, gusty winds and unseasonably chilly temperatures.  In fact, our high temperatures will be held in the 60s for the next 2 days…unseasonably chilly for mid-June.  Rainfall totals again look hefty… especially considering we’ve already picked up more than 7″ this month.  With saturated grounds and rivers and streams swollen it won’t take much to lead to some street, poor drainage, basement and river and stream flooding.  Here’s what the RPM model is printing this morning out for rainfall from this storm system:

Rain Accums

Rain Accums

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few areas near 4″.  Some of our local rivers–the Pawtuxet and Pawcatuck Rivers–continue to see minor flooding this morning, even before this latest rainfall, so they are expected to see additional minor flooding–perhaps moderate flooding for the Pawtuxet depending on how much rain falls over Cranston and Warwick.

The other component of this storm will be the gusty northeast winds tonight.  They’ll strengthen to 20-25mph with a few gusts to 35-45mph.  Gusty winds will die down on Friday, with most of the showers tapering off through the afternoon.

Please stay tuned to updates and we continue to track this system.


Flood Threat Continues

June 11th, 2013 at 9:32 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heavy rain has come to an end this morning with lingering drizzle, mist and humid air keeping the ground damp this morning.  Even though the downpours have passed for now, we’re still concerned about flooding along the Pawtuxet and Pawcatuck Rivers.

Here’s a look at the rainfall total from overnight:

Rainfall overnight

Rainfall overnight

It was enough rain to send the Pawtuxet River into a flood again with water levels continuing to rise.  In fact, the latest forecast is for the river to crest at just over 11ft early Wednesday afternoon, with moderate flooding for a time tomorrow.

Pawtuxet Hydrograph

Pawtuxet Hydrograph

Minor flooding is occurring at the Pawcatuck River in Westerly and minor flooding is forecast to continue there.

Adding to the troubles, we are also watching for the potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms to move through this afternoon.  Skies will be relatively quiet for a time today, with a little sun even possibly breaking out early afternoon… but a warm front stalled over southern New England will act as the focus for more showers and thunderstorms late day.  The more sun we see, the higher the threat of potentially strong t’storms–one’s that could dump more heavy rain on our saturated ground as well as bring frequent lightning and gusty winds.  There’s the potential for another 1/2″ to 1.5″ of rain and it could fall during the evening commute.

We’ll get a bit of a break on Wednesday and early Thursday before another storm takes aim at southern New England.  Another round of heavy rain is possible from the end of the day on Thursday into, at least, early Friday.  We’ll have to watch local rivers and streams during that wet weather, too.


More Rain on the Way

June 10th, 2013 at 8:55 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

More rain is on the way, and with rivers and streams still running high we are concerned about more flooding.

On it’s own the 1-2″ of rain that we’re expecting from late today through Tuesday evening would not be a big deal… but add it to the 3-5″ we saw with Andrea’s remnants just a few days ago and it may be more than our storm drains, streams and rivers can handle.  That’s why our area is under a “Flood Watch” with the bulk of the rain falling through the overnight hours tonight.

Flood Watch

Flood Watch

Minor flooding is still occurring along the Pawtuxet River this morning.  Water levels are expected to fall below flood stage by this evening, but it may be just a brief break as more rain moves in, water levels are expected to rise again, with minor flooding forecast for tonight and through the day on Tuesday.

Showers will be scattered on Tuesday with some partial sun trying to break out in between… we’ll have to watch for an isolated strong t’storm late day Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the rain chances will be much lower, but cold air aloft will lead to at least a small chance of a pop-up shower in the late afternoon.  Most of the day will be dry and warm.

Late week we’ll be keeping our eye on a storm center moving off the mid-Atlantic coast… some of our computer models have it staying well south of our area… but others do bring it close enough to bring a period of rain from late Thursday night into Friday morning.  We’ll watch to see if that trend continues… Regardless, it look like it will be outta here in time for the weekend.

 


Rainy Friday, but Improving for the Weekend

June 7th, 2013 at 7:54 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Showers this morning will turn into an all out soaking rain for the afternoon, evening and night as the remnants from Tropical Storm Andrea track into southeastern New England.   As far as “tropical storms” go, this one will seem like child’s play…. raw and rainy, a few gusty coastal winds and the potential for some flooding of roads and poor drainage areas.  Local rivers and streams–especially the smaller ones–will undergo some rapid rises and a few may overspill their banks.

Here’s the latest rainfall accumulation map from the RPM model… which has a further west track than the National Hurricane center…. based on that–the heaviest rain ends up over western New England with 1.5″-2.5″ inches in RI/SE MA.

06z RPM Rain Accums

06z RPM Rain Accums

Compare that to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center forecast that is based on the National Hurricane Center Track, and you can see that a track further east would bring the heavy rain into our area.

WPC Rain Accum Forecast

WPC Rain Accum Forecast

Bottom line–it’s enough rain to cause some flooding.

In addition, a closer track of even a weakening, remnant low will bring some gusty winds to our coastline… in fact a few gusts over 40mph are possible along the RI coast and in southern Bristol County, MA while Nantucket and the outer Cape could see a few gusts near 50mph.

Wind gusts at 6am Saturday

Wind gusts at 6am Saturday

By 6am the rain will be racing out of southern New England and conditions will improve through the morning… skies turn partly sunny and temperatures warm to 75-80.  In fact, it looks like the majority of the day after 8am will be rain-free… if you have graduation parties, weddings, charity events going on tomorrow the weather DOES cooperate.  Sunday looks even a little nicer.. with highs near 80 inland and in the 70s at the beach.

 


Andrea Strengthens Overnight

June 6th, 2013 at 8:30 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Tropical Storm Andrea has strengthened overnight and become better organized… however, little to no additional strengthening is expected before it makes landfall near Florida’s Big Bend later today.  As of 8am EDT the storm has sustained winds of 6omph with gusts to near hurricane strength.  It’s moving north-northeast at 14mph.

Forecast Track as of 8am Friday

Forecast Track as of 8am Friday

The storm is expected to track over land through the southeast US tonight and Friday before heading back into the cooler waters of the Northeast Friday night…. On the current track, it is forecast to stay just southeast of Nantucket in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday.  This off-shore track would mean that the worst of Andrea’s winds would stay over the ocean, with heavy rain being the major concern.  temp 2

Here’s a look at one computer model (the RPM) accumulated rainfall through Saturday morning.

RPM Rain Accum Through 8am Saturday

RPM Rain Through 8am Saturday

If this computer model is correct, most of our area would end up between 2-2.5″ of rain.  Most of the rain falls between 5pm Friday evening and 5am on Saturday.  In that 12hour time, torrential downpours and embedded thunderstorms would lead to localized street and poor drainage flooding along with rapid rises for our smaller streams and rivers.  It’s a situation we’ll have to monitor closely.  The good news is that we expect the low pressure center will be moving very quickly, which should spare our area of significant major river flooding (ie: Pawtuxet and Blackstone).  It also means that outdoor plans on Saturday will be salvageable.  In fact, most of the rainfall is over by dawn on Saturday, with just a small chance of a spotty shower and even some partial sun developing.


Dry and Mild Next Few Days

June 4th, 2013 at 11:54 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s is a gorgeous pair early June days today and tomorrow with abundant sunshine, low humidity and refreshing winds.  The cold front that brought the rain and thunder yesterday has swept in this new, dry air mass for a few days.

After highs 70-75 this afternoon, temperatures will cool quickly this evening… into the 40s and 50s by dawn on Wednesday.

Overnight Lows

Overnight Lows

High pressure will still dominate for your hump day, providing more sunshine, dry air and comfortable temperatures.

We’ll start to notice a few changes as the day progresses on Thursday with increasing clouds and a chance of showers by Thursday night.

A slow-moving storm center–with some tropical moisture pulling out of the Gulf of Mexico will slowly work it’s way up the East Coast by late Week.  In fact, the National Hurricane Center has this cluster of t’storms in the Gulf highlighted as having a 30% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next day or two.

NHC

NHC

Regardless of development, the moisture gets picked up by an upper-level disturbance and is dragged up the coast.

The timing for us is Friday into Saturday.  With all of the ultra-moist tropical air to work with, this storm has the potential to bring some heavy downpours with embedded thunderstorms.  It looks like most of the rain will fall on Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.  As the storm pulls away on Saturday the showers will become spotty with some dry time in between.


The Three “H”s Next Few Days

May 30th, 2013 at 9:00 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Quite the show from Mother Nature last night, eh?  Thunderstorms rolled through here with loud rumbles of thunder, heavy downpours and gusty winds.  Luckily, no reports of damage locally.

The thunderstorms were sparked by a warm front… the leading edge of a warm, humid, summer-like air mass.  We’ll finish out the month of May and begin the month of June with this air mass in place.  It means of stretch of mid-summer like heat, humidity and hazy skies.

It won’t take much to spark a thunderstorm  in this muggy air, so you’ll want to keep an eye to the sky in the late afternoon today.  Any storms that form will be isolated, brief and not severe.  However, they could contain heavy downpours and frequent lightning.  Here’s the RPM model valid at 5:30pm today showing a few pop-up t’storms.

RPM Model Late Afternoon

RPM Model Late Afternoon

The weather will be on repeat for tomorrow, with highs inland both days near 90.  The coast will be about 10 degrees cooler with onshore winds…. and it looks like we’ll have some great beach days ahead!!

At the Shore

At the Shore


Back on Track this Memorial Day

May 27th, 2013 at 11:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After two unseasonably chilly and unsettled days, the weather today is finally getting back to more “normal” late May conditions… better late than never, right?!

We’ll see lots of sunshine, dry air and seasonable temperatures–highs 70-75.  While it won’t be terribly warm (yet!!) it will be comfortable for all parades, ceremonies and BBQs across southern New England. temp1

The weather tomorrow will be very similar during the day… a cool dry start followed by a pleasant afternoon.  A warm front will be approaching by Tuesday night, bringing in a chance of showers and thunderstorms by dawn on Wednesday and that threat will continue through the day.  Humidity levels will start to rise, but the high heat will hold off until Thursday.

It’s looking like the warmest stretch of 2013 so far for Thursday through the weekend as summer heat and humidity take over.  Inland temperatures will climb well into the 80s to near 90 with coastal temperatures 75-80.   We’ll have be a little patient in the mornings as the warm humid air leads to a foggy start at the coast, but it should be a stretch of great beach weather into early June!

CPC Temp Outlook Jun 1-5

CPC Temp Outlook Jun 1-5


Thunderstorms Again Today

May 23rd, 2013 at 9:00 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

An unsettled weather pattern again today as a warm front remains draped over south central New England.  That front represents the boundary between warm and humid air to the south and cooler, ocean air to the northeast.  It will also act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop today, in fact we’ve already been seeing some this morning.

While the whole day won’t be a “washout”, we will need to watch again later this afternoon and especially this evening for the potential for strong and severe thunderstorms.  The highest risk will be over western New England, but a few storms containing torrential rain and strong winds will be possible around here, too, especially if we get some breaks of sun.

Thunderstorm outlook Thursday, May 23

Thunderstorm outlook Thursday, May 23

Tornado Outlook Thursday, May 23

Tornado Outlook Thursday, May 23

Parts of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma also have the potential for more severe thunderstorms with a moderate risk of those storms producing tornadoes.

Our best shot at getting widespread rain/thunder will come after 7pm this evening and continuing through the night.

 


Severe T’Storm Threat Again Today in Southern Plains

May 21st, 2013 at 9:01 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After Monday’s devastating tornado in Oklahoma, meteorologists in the Southern Plains are keeping an eye on the potential for more severe, potentially tornado producing, storms today.

In fact, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK has parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas under a “Moderate Risk” for severe storms.

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday, May 21

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday, May 21

Here’s the forecast for potential tornadoes:

Tornado Probability

Tornado Probability

The main threat with any storms that develop in this area will be very large hail and strong tornadoes.  There’s also a lower risk for isolated severe thunderstorms in the central Great Lakes and into far western New England.

Locally, a front will be over southern New England today and will act as a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late afternoon and evening.  The greatest risk of seeing any storms would be in northern RI and northern Bristol County, MA.  Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning are all possible.  If you are headed to the ball field today, keep an eye to the sky for changing weather conditions.

RPM Model Valid at 7pm

RPM Model Valid at 7pm