Michelle Muscatello

More Heat, Humidity and Thunderstorms

June 25th, 2013 at 9:17 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Here we go again… another day of sultry air, temperatures in the 90s and the threat of late day thunderstorms.  Much like yesterday, the temperatures are warming quickly….already hitting 80 at 9am with the heat index in the low 80s.  We’ll climb into the low 90s for highs inland, and low 80s at the beaches.  The heat index will be about 5° higher than the air temperature.

It doesn’t take much in the high heat and humidity to spark another round of thunderstorms, and they are in the forecast for today.  In fact, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has much of southern New England under a slight risk for severe storms later this afternoon.

SPC Outlook

SPC Outlook

The biggest threat with any storms developing today will be for torrential rain, strong, damaging wind gusts–40-50mph , hail and lightning.

Damaging Wind Outlook

Damaging Wind Outlook

And get used to this forecast…. while the temperatures won’t be quite as hot as the week goes on, the air will be very muggy, and the weather pattern will be stagnant, with the risk of showers and thunderstorms each of the next 7 days.  In fact, I don’t see any major changes in the weather pattern (warm, humid, showers and thunderstorms) right through the 4th of July.  Because the air is so “juicy” (ie: very moist) any t’showers that develop will have the potential to drop heavy rain.  It looks like our lawns will be staying lush over the next week or two.


Summertime!

June 21st, 2013 at 11:33 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Summer has officially arrived!  The solstice occurred at 1:04am this morning, marking the beginning of the summer season in the northern hemisphere.  And it’s going to be a great kick-off to summer today–mostly sunny skies, warm temperatures and low humidity.  Temperatures will be in the low 80s inland and in the 70s at the beaches.

The solstice occurs when the sun’s direct rays hit their northern most point–23.5°N–the Tropic of Cancer.  As that occurs we have more hours of daylight and a stronger sun angle on this day (and the days surrounding it) than at any other time of the year.  By Monday morning, our sunrise will begin to get a little later and every day or two we’ll lose a minute of daylight… so enjoy today’s 15 hours and 14 minutes of daylight!!

Summer Solstice

Summer Solstice

We are going to have a fantastic weekend for southern New England summertime favorites–beach, boating, pool weather will all be at it’s best… with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures.  While we’ve had a break from high humidity, that will begin to change by late Saturday and especially Sunday as dew point temperatures creep up, giving our air a “muggy” feel.

The warmth and high humidity will stick around –pun intended–into at least the middle of next week.


Another Round Today

June 18th, 2013 at 9:12 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

What an evening… from stormy skies to vibrant rainbows we had a changing and beautiful show in southern New England at the end of the day Monday… we were lucky that most of the thunderstorms were dying out as the made their way into southeastern New England and we missed the damaging winds and hail that CT and central MA had.  Instead, we were graced with gorgeous double rainbows that were visible for most of our area… and the pictures flew in to WPRI.  One of my favorites was this shot from Erin Stevens of the rainbow over Providence.

from Erin Stevens

from Erin Stevens

We have a gallery of rainbow photos on our website here.

There will be a cold front slowly sliding across southern New England again today that will lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms… mostly between 4-8pm.  With extra  clouds and cooler temperatures the risk of widespread severe storms is lower that yesterday… however, there could be some isolated strong storms with heavy rain and dangerous lightning.  As the front slides south the risk of showers will come to an end through the night with lingering clouds.  Behind the front will come a stretch of refreshing air with low humidity and comfortable temperatures for Wednesday into Friday.


Rain Moving In

June 13th, 2013 at 9:04 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Our parade of storms continues with another round of soaking rain on the way for today into Friday.  We’re getting used to–and sick of this–another FLOOD WATCH issued for all of RI and most of SE MA through Saturday morning.

It’s low pressure moving our way that will be responsible for rain, gusty winds and unseasonably chilly temperatures.  In fact, our high temperatures will be held in the 60s for the next 2 days…unseasonably chilly for mid-June.  Rainfall totals again look hefty… especially considering we’ve already picked up more than 7″ this month.  With saturated grounds and rivers and streams swollen it won’t take much to lead to some street, poor drainage, basement and river and stream flooding.  Here’s what the RPM model is printing this morning out for rainfall from this storm system:

Rain Accums

Rain Accums

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few areas near 4″.  Some of our local rivers–the Pawtuxet and Pawcatuck Rivers–continue to see minor flooding this morning, even before this latest rainfall, so they are expected to see additional minor flooding–perhaps moderate flooding for the Pawtuxet depending on how much rain falls over Cranston and Warwick.

The other component of this storm will be the gusty northeast winds tonight.  They’ll strengthen to 20-25mph with a few gusts to 35-45mph.  Gusty winds will die down on Friday, with most of the showers tapering off through the afternoon.

Please stay tuned to updates and we continue to track this system.


Flood Threat Continues

June 11th, 2013 at 9:32 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heavy rain has come to an end this morning with lingering drizzle, mist and humid air keeping the ground damp this morning.  Even though the downpours have passed for now, we’re still concerned about flooding along the Pawtuxet and Pawcatuck Rivers.

Here’s a look at the rainfall total from overnight:

Rainfall overnight

Rainfall overnight

It was enough rain to send the Pawtuxet River into a flood again with water levels continuing to rise.  In fact, the latest forecast is for the river to crest at just over 11ft early Wednesday afternoon, with moderate flooding for a time tomorrow.

Pawtuxet Hydrograph

Pawtuxet Hydrograph

Minor flooding is occurring at the Pawcatuck River in Westerly and minor flooding is forecast to continue there.

Adding to the troubles, we are also watching for the potential for another round of showers and thunderstorms to move through this afternoon.  Skies will be relatively quiet for a time today, with a little sun even possibly breaking out early afternoon… but a warm front stalled over southern New England will act as the focus for more showers and thunderstorms late day.  The more sun we see, the higher the threat of potentially strong t’storms–one’s that could dump more heavy rain on our saturated ground as well as bring frequent lightning and gusty winds.  There’s the potential for another 1/2″ to 1.5″ of rain and it could fall during the evening commute.

We’ll get a bit of a break on Wednesday and early Thursday before another storm takes aim at southern New England.  Another round of heavy rain is possible from the end of the day on Thursday into, at least, early Friday.  We’ll have to watch local rivers and streams during that wet weather, too.


More Rain on the Way

June 10th, 2013 at 8:55 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

More rain is on the way, and with rivers and streams still running high we are concerned about more flooding.

On it’s own the 1-2″ of rain that we’re expecting from late today through Tuesday evening would not be a big deal… but add it to the 3-5″ we saw with Andrea’s remnants just a few days ago and it may be more than our storm drains, streams and rivers can handle.  That’s why our area is under a “Flood Watch” with the bulk of the rain falling through the overnight hours tonight.

Flood Watch

Flood Watch

Minor flooding is still occurring along the Pawtuxet River this morning.  Water levels are expected to fall below flood stage by this evening, but it may be just a brief break as more rain moves in, water levels are expected to rise again, with minor flooding forecast for tonight and through the day on Tuesday.

Showers will be scattered on Tuesday with some partial sun trying to break out in between… we’ll have to watch for an isolated strong t’storm late day Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the rain chances will be much lower, but cold air aloft will lead to at least a small chance of a pop-up shower in the late afternoon.  Most of the day will be dry and warm.

Late week we’ll be keeping our eye on a storm center moving off the mid-Atlantic coast… some of our computer models have it staying well south of our area… but others do bring it close enough to bring a period of rain from late Thursday night into Friday morning.  We’ll watch to see if that trend continues… Regardless, it look like it will be outta here in time for the weekend.

 


Rainy Friday, but Improving for the Weekend

June 7th, 2013 at 7:54 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Showers this morning will turn into an all out soaking rain for the afternoon, evening and night as the remnants from Tropical Storm Andrea track into southeastern New England.   As far as “tropical storms” go, this one will seem like child’s play…. raw and rainy, a few gusty coastal winds and the potential for some flooding of roads and poor drainage areas.  Local rivers and streams–especially the smaller ones–will undergo some rapid rises and a few may overspill their banks.

Here’s the latest rainfall accumulation map from the RPM model… which has a further west track than the National Hurricane center…. based on that–the heaviest rain ends up over western New England with 1.5″-2.5″ inches in RI/SE MA.

06z RPM Rain Accums

06z RPM Rain Accums

Compare that to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center forecast that is based on the National Hurricane Center Track, and you can see that a track further east would bring the heavy rain into our area.

WPC Rain Accum Forecast

WPC Rain Accum Forecast

Bottom line–it’s enough rain to cause some flooding.

In addition, a closer track of even a weakening, remnant low will bring some gusty winds to our coastline… in fact a few gusts over 40mph are possible along the RI coast and in southern Bristol County, MA while Nantucket and the outer Cape could see a few gusts near 50mph.

Wind gusts at 6am Saturday

Wind gusts at 6am Saturday

By 6am the rain will be racing out of southern New England and conditions will improve through the morning… skies turn partly sunny and temperatures warm to 75-80.  In fact, it looks like the majority of the day after 8am will be rain-free… if you have graduation parties, weddings, charity events going on tomorrow the weather DOES cooperate.  Sunday looks even a little nicer.. with highs near 80 inland and in the 70s at the beach.

 


Andrea Strengthens Overnight

June 6th, 2013 at 8:30 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Tropical Storm Andrea has strengthened overnight and become better organized… however, little to no additional strengthening is expected before it makes landfall near Florida’s Big Bend later today.  As of 8am EDT the storm has sustained winds of 6omph with gusts to near hurricane strength.  It’s moving north-northeast at 14mph.

Forecast Track as of 8am Friday

Forecast Track as of 8am Friday

The storm is expected to track over land through the southeast US tonight and Friday before heading back into the cooler waters of the Northeast Friday night…. On the current track, it is forecast to stay just southeast of Nantucket in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday.  This off-shore track would mean that the worst of Andrea’s winds would stay over the ocean, with heavy rain being the major concern.  temp 2

Here’s a look at one computer model (the RPM) accumulated rainfall through Saturday morning.

RPM Rain Accum Through 8am Saturday

RPM Rain Through 8am Saturday

If this computer model is correct, most of our area would end up between 2-2.5″ of rain.  Most of the rain falls between 5pm Friday evening and 5am on Saturday.  In that 12hour time, torrential downpours and embedded thunderstorms would lead to localized street and poor drainage flooding along with rapid rises for our smaller streams and rivers.  It’s a situation we’ll have to monitor closely.  The good news is that we expect the low pressure center will be moving very quickly, which should spare our area of significant major river flooding (ie: Pawtuxet and Blackstone).  It also means that outdoor plans on Saturday will be salvageable.  In fact, most of the rainfall is over by dawn on Saturday, with just a small chance of a spotty shower and even some partial sun developing.


Dry and Mild Next Few Days

June 4th, 2013 at 11:54 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s is a gorgeous pair early June days today and tomorrow with abundant sunshine, low humidity and refreshing winds.  The cold front that brought the rain and thunder yesterday has swept in this new, dry air mass for a few days.

After highs 70-75 this afternoon, temperatures will cool quickly this evening… into the 40s and 50s by dawn on Wednesday.

Overnight Lows

Overnight Lows

High pressure will still dominate for your hump day, providing more sunshine, dry air and comfortable temperatures.

We’ll start to notice a few changes as the day progresses on Thursday with increasing clouds and a chance of showers by Thursday night.

A slow-moving storm center–with some tropical moisture pulling out of the Gulf of Mexico will slowly work it’s way up the East Coast by late Week.  In fact, the National Hurricane Center has this cluster of t’storms in the Gulf highlighted as having a 30% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone over the next day or two.

NHC

NHC

Regardless of development, the moisture gets picked up by an upper-level disturbance and is dragged up the coast.

The timing for us is Friday into Saturday.  With all of the ultra-moist tropical air to work with, this storm has the potential to bring some heavy downpours with embedded thunderstorms.  It looks like most of the rain will fall on Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.  As the storm pulls away on Saturday the showers will become spotty with some dry time in between.


The Three “H”s Next Few Days

May 30th, 2013 at 9:00 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Quite the show from Mother Nature last night, eh?  Thunderstorms rolled through here with loud rumbles of thunder, heavy downpours and gusty winds.  Luckily, no reports of damage locally.

The thunderstorms were sparked by a warm front… the leading edge of a warm, humid, summer-like air mass.  We’ll finish out the month of May and begin the month of June with this air mass in place.  It means of stretch of mid-summer like heat, humidity and hazy skies.

It won’t take much to spark a thunderstorm  in this muggy air, so you’ll want to keep an eye to the sky in the late afternoon today.  Any storms that form will be isolated, brief and not severe.  However, they could contain heavy downpours and frequent lightning.  Here’s the RPM model valid at 5:30pm today showing a few pop-up t’storms.

RPM Model Late Afternoon

RPM Model Late Afternoon

The weather will be on repeat for tomorrow, with highs inland both days near 90.  The coast will be about 10 degrees cooler with onshore winds…. and it looks like we’ll have some great beach days ahead!!

At the Shore

At the Shore


Back on Track this Memorial Day

May 27th, 2013 at 11:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After two unseasonably chilly and unsettled days, the weather today is finally getting back to more “normal” late May conditions… better late than never, right?!

We’ll see lots of sunshine, dry air and seasonable temperatures–highs 70-75.  While it won’t be terribly warm (yet!!) it will be comfortable for all parades, ceremonies and BBQs across southern New England. temp1

The weather tomorrow will be very similar during the day… a cool dry start followed by a pleasant afternoon.  A warm front will be approaching by Tuesday night, bringing in a chance of showers and thunderstorms by dawn on Wednesday and that threat will continue through the day.  Humidity levels will start to rise, but the high heat will hold off until Thursday.

It’s looking like the warmest stretch of 2013 so far for Thursday through the weekend as summer heat and humidity take over.  Inland temperatures will climb well into the 80s to near 90 with coastal temperatures 75-80.   We’ll have be a little patient in the mornings as the warm humid air leads to a foggy start at the coast, but it should be a stretch of great beach weather into early June!

CPC Temp Outlook Jun 1-5

CPC Temp Outlook Jun 1-5


Thunderstorms Again Today

May 23rd, 2013 at 9:00 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

An unsettled weather pattern again today as a warm front remains draped over south central New England.  That front represents the boundary between warm and humid air to the south and cooler, ocean air to the northeast.  It will also act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop today, in fact we’ve already been seeing some this morning.

While the whole day won’t be a “washout”, we will need to watch again later this afternoon and especially this evening for the potential for strong and severe thunderstorms.  The highest risk will be over western New England, but a few storms containing torrential rain and strong winds will be possible around here, too, especially if we get some breaks of sun.

Thunderstorm outlook Thursday, May 23

Thunderstorm outlook Thursday, May 23

Tornado Outlook Thursday, May 23

Tornado Outlook Thursday, May 23

Parts of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma also have the potential for more severe thunderstorms with a moderate risk of those storms producing tornadoes.

Our best shot at getting widespread rain/thunder will come after 7pm this evening and continuing through the night.

 


Severe T’Storm Threat Again Today in Southern Plains

May 21st, 2013 at 9:01 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After Monday’s devastating tornado in Oklahoma, meteorologists in the Southern Plains are keeping an eye on the potential for more severe, potentially tornado producing, storms today.

In fact, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK has parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas under a “Moderate Risk” for severe storms.

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday, May 21

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday, May 21

Here’s the forecast for potential tornadoes:

Tornado Probability

Tornado Probability

The main threat with any storms that develop in this area will be very large hail and strong tornadoes.  There’s also a lower risk for isolated severe thunderstorms in the central Great Lakes and into far western New England.

Locally, a front will be over southern New England today and will act as a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late afternoon and evening.  The greatest risk of seeing any storms would be in northern RI and northern Bristol County, MA.  Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning are all possible.  If you are headed to the ball field today, keep an eye to the sky for changing weather conditions.

RPM Model Valid at 7pm

RPM Model Valid at 7pm

 


Rain to Put a Small Dent in Large Rainfall Deficit

May 8th, 2013 at 9:47 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After a 2 week dry stretch it was a welcome relief to gardens, lawns and allergy sufferers to see some scattered showers yesterday and again today.  However, it’s not enough to put a significant dent in our rainfall deficit.  As of today, we are nearly 6″ below normal for rainfall since March 1st at TF Green Airport.

For most of RI, the rainfall totals from yesterday were pretty measly.  temp 1

And today will be more of the same.  Low pressure will creep over New England as it continues to weaken, bringing occasional showers, quick downpours and an isolated thunderstorm.  There will be long stretches of dry weather in between the showers and even some hazy, humid sun at times.  Rainfall amounts will generally be under 1/4″.

Showers end this evening and we’ll have a dry day tomorrow.  In fact, it will be one of the warmest days so far this spring, with some inland spots nearing 80!


Much Needed Rainfall on the Way

May 7th, 2013 at 11:13 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

I’ts another storm-free day in southern New England, with our biggest concern being how far north low clouds and fog make it onshore through the early afternoon.  It sure has been a nice–nearly 2 week–stretch of quiet, dry weather in New England…. but now the area of high pressure that’s been providing the stable atmosphere is moving out and unsettled weather will be moving in.   And as much as most of us like the sunshine, we could really use some rain.  Here’s a look at the latest information from the US Drought Monitor.  It has RI, CT and and central and western MA under “abnormally dry” conditions.

US Drought Monitor as of Apr 30

US Drought Monitor as of Apr 30

And it’s no wonder… since the start of meteorological spring on March 1st we have an almost 5.5″ rainfall deficit.  It’s less severe in eastern MA due to a coastal storm a few weeks ago that brought heavy rain to that area, while in RI we only saw a few light showers.

It looks like a combination of low pressure tomorrow and Thursday, with several fronts over the weekend will help put a dent in that deficit.  We’ll see scattered showers, with some embedded heavier downpours starting by afternoon on Wednesday… and we’ll keep at least a chance of showers in the forecast into Sunday.  Here’s a forecast for how much rainfall we could see through the next 7 days…. with about an 1″-1.25″ expected.

Rainfall Totals Next 7 Days

Rainfall Totals Next 7 Days


New Month, Same Weather Pattern

May 1st, 2013 at 8:38 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’re welcoming in the month of May with a continuation of the dry, sunny and seasonable conditions that we had at the end of April.  Our weather is still under the control of an area of high pressure that is anchored across New England, bringing a delightful stretch of storm-free days.  We’re in what we call an “omega Block”.  I’ve highlighted it in red on the 500mb map from the 06z NAM computer guidance this morning:

Omega Block

Omega Block

Notice the resemblance to the greek letter omega:

Greek Letter Omega

Greek Letter Omega

“Blocking” means that there’s a stagnation in the weather pattern where there’s  the same type of weather for days or even weeks.  For New England, which is under the omega block, it means dry weather and light wind for an extended period of time while rain and clouds are common on either side of the omega block. This kind of pattern makes forecasting easier since you can pinpoint areas that will be dominated by dry or rainy weather for several days.

So when will the pattern break?  Some of our computer models see some signs of change by late next week… though even then, it doesn’t look like a complete break down of the ridging in New England.  At this point, we’re looking at likely warmer than average and drier than average conditions in our area through possibly May 10.


U-G-L-Y Today… but Big Improvements Tomorrow!

April 23rd, 2013 at 9:21 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

There’s not a whole lot of good things to say about today’s weather.  It will be an UGLY day with low clouds, drizzle and showers continuing through the day and night.  Temperatures will barely budge, with highs only in the mid to upper 40s and a stiff northeast wind making it “feel” –the windchill–  in the 30s.  Brrr!

In terms of rainfall, we’re looking at mostly light amounts across RI–generally under 1/4″.  However, the amounts will be more impressive over southeastern MA… possibly nearing 1/2″ in New Bedford and as much as 1″ to 2″ across parts of the Cape and Islands.  The culprit is an area of low pressure that will track south and east of Nantucket.

Accum rain by 8am Wednesday

Accum rain by 8am Wednesday

The storm departs by early tomorrow morning (before 9am) and then the good stuff begins!  We have a huge turnaround tomorrow… we should break into sunshine through the morning, and that–combined with a shift in the wind to the southwest–will push our temperatures up to near 70 inland and 60s at the coast.

RPM Model Forecast Highs for Wednesday

RPM Model Forecast Highs for Wednesday

A rather unimpressive cold front will sweep through Wednesday night with a passing shower followed by a large area of high pressure that will sit over New England and keep us storm-free from Thursday into the weekend.  There are even signs that high could continue to control the weather into early next week.  Temperatures under the high will be seasonable–a comfortable low to mid 60s.


Ups and Downs Next Few Days

April 17th, 2013 at 9:04 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Temperatures next 4 days will feature some ups and downs, with today being one of the “up” days.

Cold front moved through early this morning, bringing clouds and a few scattered showers, but not a lot of cold air, especially for today.

In fact, temperatures this morning were about 20° warmer than yesterday at dawn… add sunshine for most of the day, and you’re left with afternoon temperatures climbing well into the 60s–even at the coast.  The combination of sunshine, mild air and lighter winds makes today my PICK OF THE WEEK!

After a comfortable evening temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by dawn.  Thursday still looks good for outdoor plans with a sunny start and then increasing afternoon and evening clouds.  It will be a little cooler with highs near 61.  A warm front will lift through Thursday night, unleashing humid and mild air for Friday.  Gusty winds ahead of a cold front will lead to rough waters on the Bay and a chillier feel.  While there may be a spotty shower during the day on Friday, a soaking rain will hold off until Friday night.  Around a 1/4-3/4″ of rain expected with this strong cold front, even perhaps a rumble of thunder.

24hr Accum rain by Saturday PM

24hr Accum rain by Saturday PM

Our computer models are still hinting at the rain extending into Saturday morning with clearing skies in the afternoon.  Cooler air will settle in for early next week behind the front.


Raw Rainy Friday, Brighter Milder Weekend

April 12th, 2013 at 9:16 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s going to be an ugly weather day with light gusty showers from this morning giving way to a widespread soaking rain for this afternoon and evening.  Temperatures will stay around 40-45 through the day and add in a gusty northeast wind and you have the makings of an unseasonably raw, rainy day.

We’re still looking at around 1-1.5″ of rainfall by midnight.  Here’s the latest RPM model run for accumulated rainfall in New England.  temp 2

In addition, east-northeast winds will gust up to 35mph at times,  and there could be some localized street flooding… though our rivers and streams should not flood.

Clouds linger through much of the night and early Saturday morning before giving way to sunshine.  The April sun should do the trick warming us up in the afternoon with highs back into the upper 50s.  Sunday will feature lots of sunshine with temperatures just a bit cooler than Saturday.

I’m seeing signs of another stretch of mild weather for the start of school vacation week with highs near 60 Monday and in the mid-60s for Tuesday and Wednesday.  We’ll have to keep an eye on the eventual position of a cold front for the middle of next week… if it stays north of our area then our temperatures will stay mild, if it slips south then we’ll see the cooler temperatures return.


It’s Been a While…

April 8th, 2013 at 9:17 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A well-deserved stretch of above average temperatures is on the way for southern New Englanders early this week.  It’s been a while since we’ve seen the sort of highs we’re forecast–how long?? Nearly 6months.

Our last 70° or higher day was on

OCTOBER 20 when we hit a high of 74°!

Today, we will likely only hit highs in the 60s… but it is going to be a gorgeous day.  Lots of sun, lighter winds and inland temperatures in the mid 60s should make for a great day for outdoor activities.  It will be cooler at the coast with an afternoon sea breeze keeping highs near 58-60.

A front will remain across the northeast next few days… and while we’ll remain on the mild side of the front (hence Tuesday and Wednesdays highs in the 70s), it will be closer enough to give us a chance for an occasional shower.

Surface Map for 8pm Today

Surface Map for 8pm Today

It looks like we’ll see one of those rounds of showers early Tuesday morning (between 2am and 8am) and yet another chance on Wednesday and Thursday–dry stretches and partial sun can be expected in between the shower threat.  As the front pushes south, cooler temperatures will move in for the end of the work week.


Looking Milder…. But

April 4th, 2013 at 8:27 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Today starts a stretch of milder, more seasonable days in southeastern New England.  It’s not a dramatic turn-around from the chill of the last few days, but we should be closer to “average” for early April…That puts our highs in the 50s and our overnight lows staying above freezing.

It should be a very pretty early spring day… with high pressure building to our south and a wind shift, we’re looking at dry and mainly sunny skies.

Surface Map 4/4

Surface Map 4/4

As Tony mentioned in his blog last night, we are tracking an area of low pressure that will track well south and east of our area tomorrow.  It still looks like Rhode Island and southeastern MA will be on the northern edge of the rain, with showers expected from about 8am Friday morning through about 3pm Friday afternoon.  The storm makes a quick exit… so we may even end the day with some sunshine.  It looks mild even with the clouds and showers around, highs in the mid to upper 50s.

The weather looks quiet and dry for the weekend with sunshine Saturday and more of a sun/cloud mix on Sunday.

Early next week, there will be a temperature battle going on over New England, with a cold front nearby that will wobble near or over central New England for a few days.  That front is going to be the dividing line between warmer than normal temperatures to the south  and cooler than normal temperatures to the north–60s and 70s vs 40s and 50s.  Our guidance this morning is at odds… with some showing our temperatures tempered by the front (ECMWF) and other GFS showing the front staying north and our temperatures soaring!  Right now, I’m leaning more towards the reliable ECMWF, and keeping our temperatures closer to 55-62 with hazy sun/clouds and a few showers around.  Stay tuned!


Warm Air On the Way Out

April 1st, 2013 at 11:28 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s a beautiful April 1st with another day of temperatures climbing into the upper 50s away from the coast.  A southwest wind this afternoon will keep the immediate shore in the low 50s… but overall it’s going to be a great early afternoon for outdoor activities.

If you have outdoor plans late day, you are going to want to watch for a changeable sky.  We’re timing the passage of a strong cold front for late afternoon and early evening that has the potential to bring some isolated stormy weather into our area.  Right now it looks like the best window of opportunity for showers, isolated thunder and isolated strong winds will be between 4-8pm in RI and exiting off of the Cape by 11pm.  Here’s a look at the 12z model run of the RPM for 6pm today.  It shows the scattered nature of the showers (not everyone sees one) and a few isolated heavier downpours/wind gusts/rumbles of thunder.  Winds could briefly gust to 40-50mph in any of these stronger cells.

RPM Valid 6pm Mon

RPM Valid 6pm Mon

Behind the cold front, temperatures will tumble on a gusty northwest wind.  Temperatures should be back into the 40s before sunset and fall all the way into the upper 20s by dawn tomorrow.

We’re back to sweater weather tomorrow and on Wednesday with temperatures only climbing into the low to mid 40s.  We should be back to more seasonable temperatures by Thursday afternoon.


Not a “Washout” Today

March 28th, 2013 at 9:00 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Weak disturbance has been moving through this morning bringing a few light rain showers and extra clouds.  We won’t be as warm as yesterday, but it’s not a “washout” either.  In fact, hazy sun will break through the clouds at times. with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.

Our computer models are continuing to show a few showers popping up through the afternoon… they will be hit-or-miss, brief and generally light… with some sun peeking through at times.  This is the RPM Model showing those instability showers and how the radar may look around 3pm today.

RPM Model

RPM Model

 

We’ll get back on track with temperatures in the 50s for Friday. The day should begin with sunshine before clouds fill in through the afternoon.  There’s a small chance of a sprinkle in the afternoon, but most of us stay dry.

Easter bunny will be dropping off some pretty “egg-cellent” weather for the weekend.  An area of high pressure will build overhead on Saturday and should deliver plenty of sunshine Saturday and into  Sunday afternoon.  We’re still closely watching the timing of a cold front for Sunday night.  Our computer models have been speeding up the arrival of the front a little bit, with the rain showers possible 3-6hrs earlier.

What does that mean for your weekend plans?  Not much until after 5pm on Sunday, when showers will begin to threaten our area.  Here’s a look at this morning’s 06z GFS model valid at 8pm with the leading edge of showers  pushing into southeastern New England.

06z GFS Valid 8pm Sunday

06z GFS Valid 8pm Sunday


Storm Still Tracking South

March 25th, 2013 at 9:17 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

No big changes to the forecast for today…. storm system that’s dumping snow from Pittsburgh to DC looks like it will continue on a track over our ocean waters well south of southern New England.  In fact, some of the new computer guidance flowing in this morning now show just a few light showers making it into RI/SE MA this afternoon and overnight.  It may be a mix of both rain and snow showers during the day and then snow showers tonight.  The chance of seeing showers will be highest between 8pm and 2am… where a few communities could see a quick coating of snow on grassy surfaces and car tops.  It looks like this final week of April will feature a blend of clouds and sun with normal, or slightly cooler than normal temperatures.


Nice Sunday, Monday Storm Still Looks to Track South

March 23rd, 2013 at 9:04 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

If I were handing out letter grades, today would have gotten a “B”… the sunshine was nice, but the howling winds kept us feeling winter’s chill.  Tomorrow shows improvement—a “B+”… In fact, it is one of the nicest weekend days we’ve had in some time.  There should be even more sunshine, less wind and slightly (+2-3 degrees) milder temperatures.  We’re still not able to shed our warm coats… or make it to the average high for late March (50F), but overall, it will be pleasant.

Sunday Afternoon

Sunday Afternoon

The latest computer guidance on Monday’s storm continues to point at a southerly track–one that supports the bulk of an ocean storm staying off-shore.  It’s a storm that will deliver quite a bit of rain and snow to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic… but it looks like that heavy precipitation will stay over the ocean.  That said, the pleasant weather from Sunday will be replaced by cloudy skies, cool temperatures and some light rain/snow showers for Monday afternoon and night.

Its still possible for some small accumulations on Monday evening/night…. maybe a coating to an 1-2″ on grassy surfaces and car tops.  Best chance would be near the coast and into SE MA.  Based on the current forecast, much heavier precipitation will be just south… so we’ll have to watch for any jog in the track closer to the coast, which could bring heavier precip (more snow) into our area.

RPM Model Valid Monday 8pm

RPM Model Valid Monday 8pm


When Will Spring Warmth Arrive???

March 22nd, 2013 at 9:24 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Every where I go I’m getting asked, “when is it going to warm up”.  It has been a long, hard winter in southern New England and some coastal communities were forced to break out the shovels once again this morning.  That overnight snow event was a case of “have” and “have nots”… with Providence, Warwick, NW RI with little more than a dusting of snow and Aquidneck Island, SE MA, Cape Cod picking up more than a half of a foot in spots!  Check out this ReportIt photo that was sent in to our newsroom from Rhonda in Fairhaven, MA:   temp 2

Here’s a look at some of the snowfall totals we received from last night’s storm.  It was highly localized heavier bands of snow, so even from one part of a town or city to the other there were differences in the accumulations. temp 1

So when will it finally start to feel like Spring?  We’re hopeful it will be in early April.  Our computer models showing more cold, unsettled weather through Easter Sunday,  but check out this update from the Climate Prediction Center about how the month of April is setting up.  It calls for warmer than average temperatures in New England.  Yippee!!

April Temperature Probability

April Temperature Probability


Worcester Snowiest City in US this Winter

March 21st, 2013 at 8:55 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Snow. Snow. Snow.  It’s a word many of us have grown tired of hearing/saying/seeing in southern New England.  It’s the winter that just keeps going, with more light snow in the forecast for today… and even a few inches of accumulating snow for some tonight. And now, there are at least some accolades to go along with this incessant winter weather pattern.  The National Weather Service says Worcester, MA was  the snowiest city in the US for the winter of 2012-13 with 108.9″ of snow.  This is for cities with more than 100, 000 inhabitants.  Not Anchorage, Alaska,  Syracuse, New York, Erie, PA or even Denver, Colorado could top Worcester’s total this year.

We’ve seen less than half of the amount of Worcester’s snow at TF Green Airport where RI’s official weather records are kept. Our total for the season is 46.3″, which doesn’t even place in the top 10 snowiest winters.  However; it’s still a stark contrast to last year’s less than 18″ of snow and 76° High on March 21.

I haven’t made any signifant changes to the forecast that Tony had last night… other than to adjust the higher snow band westward slightly to include parts of southern RI.  It still looks like a narrow band of 2-3″ snow fall totals will occur somewhere in our area with an isolated 4-5″ total possible…. there will be little to no accumulation on either side of that band.  We’ll be keeping a close eye on the radar this evening and tonight, to see where exactly the bursts of snow are and may have to make some additional adjustments to the forecast.

By Friday Morning

By Friday Morning

While most of the snow will melt as it hits the pavement before sunset this evening, the arrival of heavier bursts of snow may coincide with the evening commute and slow the trip home from work.  In addition, tomorrow morning’s commute could feature some slick spots as showers taper off before 8am for most and skies turn partly sunny.

This Evening's Commute

This Evening’s Commute


What A Difference a Year Makes!

March 18th, 2013 at 11:14 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As a late season winter storm gets ready to head into New England tonight, we are reminiscing about where we were at this time last year.  It was an early taste of summer warmth March 18-23… with temperatures running 30-40° warmer than this year.  I remember taking my kids to the beach for the first time and they actually played in the water!

March 2012

March 2012

 

I have been getting lots of questions over the last few weeks about WHEN we are going to start to warm up.  Unfortunately, we aren’t seeing a lot of change in the weather pattern through the end of the month.  A large trough in the jet stream will continue to allow cooler than normal temperatures to flow into the eastern US, and we’ll have to keep an eye out for more late season wintry weather.

temp 1


Temperature Probability for March 25-31


Winter Storm Warning Northern RI

March 18th, 2013 at 6:27 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Monday morning,

New data continues to flow into the Pinpoint Weather Center this morning, giving us growing confidence in a period of wintry weather from late this evening through tomorrow morning before changing to plain rain.

In fact, the National Weather Service this morning upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for Northern RI, where our highest snowfall accumulations are expected—as much as 4-6″ of snow and sleet.  In addition, the Providence Metro area through Kent and South Counties, along with northern Bristol County, MA are now under a Winter Weather Advisory.  The Alerts are for 9pm this evening through 11am Tuesday.

We are most concerned about messy travel conditions for tomorrow morning’s commute.

TIMING:  Snow arrives between 8pm and 12am.

          Changing to Rain from south to north between 6am and 11am Tuesday

         Periods of Rain in the Afternoon will taper off most areas by 8pm

ACCUMULATIONS:  NW RI–4-6″

                                Central  RI to Northern Bristol Cty MA–2-4″

                                Coastal RI/MA–Coating to 2″

RAINFALL:  Additional 0.5″ to 1″ of  rain after the changeover

WINDS:  East winds 10-20mph with gusts to 35mph

COASTAL FLOODING:  Not an issue because tides will not be astronomically high.  We catch a break in this regard

RIVER FLOODING:  We’ll watch local rivers and streams, however, right now rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy enough to cause flooding of our major rivers–Pawtuxet, Blackstone, Pawcatuck.


Colder Air Here to Stay Rest of this Week

March 14th, 2013 at 9:22 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Yesterday’s temperatures in the 50s meant a nice spring preview—and lots of outdoor time for the kids—but unfortunately, for the next 7 days it looks like the warmer air is history.  Colder air is continuing to drain in today on a stiff west-northwest wind and we’ve even seen snow showers which brought a quick dusting of snow in SW RI. Those snow showers are winding down this morning and we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds today.  But even with a strengthening March sun, we’ll only see temperatures climb into the upper 30s.  You’ll need to dress for the 20s with the winds.

Tonight looks to be the coldest night of the week, with mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the ‘teens to lower 20s.  Brrr! temp 1

We’re continuing to track a weak clipper-type system for Saturday.  The trend has been to push this low pressure system further south over the ocean.  In fact, several of the overnight computer models (00z ECMWF and 00z GFS) keep our skies dry and partly sunny for Saturday.  Bottom line–even if this disturbance comes close enough to bring showers they will be more of a nuisance than anything significant.  Here’s a view of the 06z GFS keeping the precipitation south of our area on Saturday–valid at 2pm.  temp 1

It still looks dry and chilly for St Patrick’s Day festivities on Sunday.