petemangione

Wednesday Afternoon Rainy Update

October 22nd, 2014 at 1:19 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Bristol County Massachusetts only.  This starts at 5PM and goes into Thursday morning.  This means that there is a potential for some street flooding, but there is no immediate threat.  Because of the position of the offshore storm, it looks like eastern areas will get the most rainfall.  That’s why at this point, Rhode Island is NOT included in this watch.

PeteGoBlog

Even though Rhode Island is not included in this watch, ALL areas may get periods of moderate to heavy rain tonight into tomorrow morning.  When we have a lot of leaves on the ground, they can clog the drains and exacerbate any kind of flooding situation.  Therefore, please take it slow if you are on the road, especially later on tonight into the Thursday morning commute.  -Pete Mangione


Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning Tonight

October 19th, 2014 at 9:03 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As TJ mentioned in his previous blog post, some spots may see a hard freeze tonight.  The watches he mentioned have now turned into advisories and warnings; this means that we are becoming confident in these cold conditions actually occurring.

This will likely be the coolest night of the season with temperatures near or below freezing in some areas.  Here are the low temperatures expected overnight:

Pete_Blog_Freeze_Go

Notice the upper 20s in eastern Connecticut; I would not be surprised if some spots in Rhode Island and Bristol County Massachusetts also sneak into the upper 20s.

A FROST ADVISORY is in effect for Providence, the East Bay, the West Bay, and Newport County RI.  For all inland areas away from Narragansett Bay, a FREEZE WARNING is in effect.   Basically, if you are still trying to grow something, you are going to want to bring it inside or protect it.

Have a great Sunday and bring the jacket; this afternoon it will be windy with temperatures only in the mid 50s! -Pete Mangione

 


Three Questions about the Thursday Forecast

October 16th, 2014 at 3:05 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Rain has moved through with varying intensities this morning and early this afternoon.  As of mid-afternoon, TF Green has picked up about 0.50″ of rain and Smithfield is at 0.77″.   Eastern Connecticut was hit with a lot of rain this morning with total of around 2.30″ (Willimantic, CT).  Although we are under a Flash Flood Watch through this evening, it appears we have been able to avoid major flooding so far.

Here are three questions that you may have about the rest of the day and night:

How Much Total Rain?

Taking into account what has already hit the ground, I would expect most of us to end up close to the 1 inch mark.   Some areas may not quite make it to 1″, and other areas could get a little more.  In western RI, it’s possible there are some isolated areas that get closer to 2″.

What is the Evening Commute going to be like?

A lot of the rain may be pulling out around this time, but I would still expect a slow commute as the rain may not be completely turned off yet.  Areas west of I-95 may be left with just light off/on rain so the commute may not be as slow.  However, areas east of I-95 may still be dealing with showers and downpours which could slow things down. I think our Futurecast map showing the 5PM forecast does a pretty good job.

Pete_Blog_One

 

What about the Pats/Jets game?

Bring the raincoat or poncho if you are going to the game.  There will likely be rain (some of it heavy) for tailgating, but most of the rain should be over by kickoff.  That being said, some occasional showers are possible through out the game.  At least it won’t be that cold as temperatures should stay in the low to mid 60s for most of the game.

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I would say the main hazard for the rest of the day will be hydroplaning….so drive with caution.  Have a great day and enjoy the game! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 


Damp start to weekend, but it gets better

October 11th, 2014 at 8:41 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Take the umbrella if you have plans to be out this morning or early afternoon.  Here is a timeline of what to expect:

9AM to 1PM: This is when the steadiest of the rain should be moving through.  The rain will fall at light to moderate rates which should make driving slow but passable.  A few heavy batches of rain are possible.  Although some puddles will be out there on the roads, we are not anticipating widespread street flooding.

PeteFutureGo

1PM to 5PM: For areas north and west of I-95, the rain will be wrapping up.  For areas south and east of I-95, the rain may linger until the later part of this time period.  For Providence, you should be somewhere in the middle with the steadiest of the rain wrapping up by 2PM or 3PM.

5PM to 8PM:  Some lingering light rain or drizzle is still possible, but plenty of rain free time too.  Bring your jacket if you are heading to the Flames of Hope WaterFire; temperatures will be around 50° at 6PM (around the time of the lighting), but then drop into the mid 40s by 11PM.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy with highs in the 60s.  If you are heading to the Columbus Day Parade on Federal Hill or the Scituate Arts Festival, bring the jacket or sweatshirt.  You will want this for times when you are hanging out in the shade or during the times where a cloud happens to be blocking out the sun.

Enjoy the weekend! -Pete Mangione

 


Flood Watch For Massachusetts Through Thursday AM

October 1st, 2014 at 2:24 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A Flood Watch starts at 5PM this evening and goes through tomorrow (Thursday) morning.  This watch is for Bristol County Massachusetts only.  Remember, a watch means there is a POTENTIAL of flooding.  If flooding is imminent, then a warning will be issues.

HEADLINES FOR Bristol County Mass (as well as Plymouth County, Cape Cod, and the islands):

- Periods of heavy rainfall which could lead to the flooding of streets or small streams.  The more likely areas to get flooding would be in far eastern areas such as the outer Cape.  Areas from New Bedford and points west are less likely to get flooding.

- 1 to 2 inches of rain are likely; but isolated higher amounts are possible.

- Periods of heavy rain will be moving through this afternoon, but the most likely time to see the heaviest of the rain is 5PM this evening into early Thursday morning.

As of this afternoon, Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 RADAR was already showing heavy amounts of moisture moving in from the Atlantic.

newIMG

 

FOR RHODE ISLAND:

0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain is likely; but some higher isolated amounts are possible. If the rain axis starts moving further west, it’s possible that parts of Rhode Island may have to be added to Flood Watch area. -Pete Mangione


NOAA Says This Winter Could go Either Way

September 25th, 2014 at 5:09 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The Climate Prediction Center (the branch of NOAA that handles long term forecasts) recently issued their forecast for this upcoming winter.  Whether you are a “snow lover”, or a “snow hater”, there is not much to get excited about.  That’s because the forecast calls for equal chances of below or above normal precipitation.  The NOAA forecast map for this December, January, and February is below:

NOAA_Precip_Forecast

The “EC” stands for equal chances, and one of those EC’s is sitting right over the northeast.  The green shaded areas with the A represent locations which have slightly better odds to receive above normal precipitation, and the orange shaded areas with the B represent locations which have slightly better odds to receive below normal precipitation. Precipitation includes rain as well as snow, but it still can be used as guide for making long term snow forecasts.

There is a lot of analysis that goes into making a long term forecast, and there are many different methods that can be used.   Several private forecasting firms have also come out with winter forecasts and the outlooks vary.  While I don’t know everything that went into the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, it’s likely that they based some of it on El Nino, which has a better than 50% chance of developing by this winter.

El Nino is characterized by the warm waters in the equatorial Pacific; this can affect the position of the jet stream and long term weather patterns.  During El Nino periods,  the Pacific jet stream tends to cut across the southern part of the United States.

PeteNino

This brings a lot of moisture and lift to this region, which is why El Nino often brings soaking rain from central/southern California to the southeastern United States.  But history has shown there is NO strong signal for the northeast; that is likely one of the reasons for the “equal chances” forecast by NOAA for our area.

Precip_2_Blog

For the sake of curiosity, I decided to look at a few of the past El Nino winters and a possible snowfall trend.  Here is a breakdown; the snowfall data comes from TF Green Airport (source: Northeastern Regional Climate Center)

 

El Nino Winter                                  Snowfall

2009-2010:                                             31.5

2006-2007:                                             15.1

2004-2005:                                             72.2

2002-2003:                                             56.3

 

With the normal TF Green snowfall being 33.8 inches, you can see that 2 El Nino winters had above normal snowfall, and 2 El Nino winters had below normal snowfall.  This includes a very snowy winter in 2004-2005 with 72 inches, and a very wimpy winter in 2006-2007 with just 15.1 inches.   Because there are only four years listed above, we can’t draw any scientific conclusions from this data.  However, it is interesting that the these four years support the idea that El Nino doesn’t really tell us anything about the upcoming winter in the northeast.  It can snow a lot, it can snow about average, and it might not snow that much at all!

Of course, we should be able to give a few more specifics as we get closer to winter. Enjoy  the beginning of autumn! -Pete Mangione


Sunday Morning Update: CVS 5K and Pats

September 21st, 2014 at 8:38 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

So far, the showers have been primarily staying to our north and west this morning.  Here is a breakdown for what to expect for  the rest of the day:

CVS Health 5K: It will be warm and muggy at the start of the race with temperatures in the mid 70s.  There will be a threat of a shower or downpour, but most of the time it is rain free.  I would say shorts and t-shirts if you are a runner; if you are a spectator a rain jacket or poncho might not be a bad idea in case you get hit by a brief downpour.

Blog_1

Pats Game: Similar to the 5K, most of the time will be rain free, warm and muggy.  There could be a brief shower or downpour for tailgating or during the game.  Temperatures will be in the upper 70s from start to finish (exception would be if a shower comes through), so you don’t have to worry about a cool down for the end of the game.

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Enjoy your Sunday! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


CVS Health 5K: Mild Temperatures, but Showers Possible

September 20th, 2014 at 8:33 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The CVS 5K starts at 11:15AM tomorrow (Sunday), and we are tracking the CHANCE for a few showers.  I have done this race a few times over the past few years and the weather has been fantastic, so hopefully we can keep it that way!

A tricky forecast is developing for Sunday because a chunk of tropical moisture will make a close pass to southern New England.

What we know about Sunday: A mild air mass will be in place, so even if we end up with morning showers and a lot of clouds, temperatures should be in the 70s for most of the day.  Temperatures should be in the low 70s around 11:15AM for the start of the race.  That is almost ideal for running in terms of temperature, but it will be muggy.

What we still need to fine tune: There is still a lot of uncertainty in the threat of Sunday showers.  If this “chunk” of tropical moisture stays well offshore, then we end up with just a brief sprinkle or no showers at all.  If this chunk of tropical moisture moves further inland, then some downpours and even a thunderstorm is possible Sunday morning.   My forecast for now leans towards the drier scenario, with a few brief sprinkles possible Sunday morning and then a dry afternoon.

ForecSundAM

 

If you are running in or watching the 5K, I would at plan on a few showers for Sunday morning.  Tune in to TJ tonight, and then catch me at 6AM tomorrow morning on WPRI 12.  We will be going live in Providence for the race preparations, and I will be tracking potential showers with Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 RADAR.  -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Storms Arrive Late Today, Some Could be Strong

September 6th, 2014 at 8:23 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Although most of today (Saturday) will be free of rain and storms, some potentially severe weather arrives by late afternoon and evening.  Here is a timeline of what to expect:

Saturday Morning: Some thick fog will give way to partly sunny skies, the fog may take a little while longer to clear from the coast.  Humidity will be VERY high…so if you go out for your morning run or walk, don’t be surprised if you sweat immediately!

Saturday Noon to 4PM: Heat and humidity will continue to build with periods of hazy sun.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible north and west of I-95, but most areas will stay dry. 

Saturday 4PM to 10PM: This is the most likely period for strong to severe thunderstorms.  While it won’t be raining this entire time, you will want to be in a place where you can get inside quickly.  Keep in mind, there is no guarantee that will get severe weather, but the risk is high enough where we need to point out some POTENTIAL threats.  The threats include hail, flash flooding, and even a slight chance of a tornado.   Here is a break down from the high resolution RPM model.

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Note that northwest RI (especially north and west of 295) has the best chance of severe weather during the late afternoon, while the severe threat shifts to Little Compton and points east by late tonight.  Stay with us both on air and online, we will keep you updated throughout the day. -Pete Mangione


Still A Rip Current Threat Today, but Waters Gradually Calm

August 29th, 2014 at 6:06 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

UPDATED AT 8:30AM

HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED, BUT STILL DECENT WAVES

Good morning.  The latest observations show swells on the south coast are have now gone down to about 3-5 feet.  That is lower than yesterday, but it is still high enough to pose a danger.  The high surf advisory has expired; the surf should continue to decrease into the afternoon.

THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY

Even when the surf is no longer a threat, dangerous rip currents will be a risk.  These can sometimes be more dangerous than the high surf because it is often hard to see the rip currents.

IMPROVING THIS WEEKEND

By Saturday and Sunday, the surf should no longer be an issue but we will still have to monitor the rip current risk.  The risk will likely be lower as waters continue to calm, but make sure to check back with us through out the weekend.  It often takes a while for the rip current risk to completely go away. -Pete Mangione


Cristobal Will Bring Rip Currents, Possibly Late Wednesday

August 26th, 2014 at 7:12 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of Tuesday evening, Cristobal is a Category One hurricane with winds of 75 mph.  Here is the latest track:

cristrewrewrewrew

This storm will stay far away, so we don’t have to worry about it bringing bad weather.  However, it will bring rip currents Thursday into the weekend.  Some of these rips may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon.  Please listen to lifeguards at the beach for instructions about where it is safe to swim. -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Cristobal Could Affect Waters, but not Land

August 24th, 2014 at 7:35 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of Sunday evening Tropical Storm Cristobal had winds of 46 mph and was moving to the north at 7 mph.  There is a “dip” in the jet stream that seems to be interacting with the storm.   That is likely the reason it does not have that classic circular shape yet.  However, as the dip in the jet stream moves away, it’s likely that Cristobal will become better organized and turn into a hurricane.  However, this may not happen for several days.

Here is the Sunday evening track from the National Hurricane Center:

TSCrrsttt

 

There are 2 important things to note.  First, notice how the red, hollow tropical storm graphic becomes a “filled in” hurricane graphic from Tuesday into Wednesday.  This makes sense given that the above mentioned “dip” in the jet stream should be gone that point.  Tropical systems don’t like dips in the jet stream, so once this moves away Cristobal will have a change to organize.

The second thing to note the sharp bend to the right on Thursday.  There is actually a second “dip” in the jet stream that will bring in a cold front around this time.  This should help push Cristobal out to sea and keep it well offshore from southern New England.  However, rip currents are possible around the end of the week into Labor Day weekend.  Even if the storm is several hundred miles away, it can still affect our waters if it is strong enough.  The front itself may give us some isolated showers or thunderstorms, but we will take that over a hit from Cristobal!

Crish_Two

The weather for the Friday and Saturday actually looks nice and comfortable with highs in the upper 70s and low humidity.  Some showers are possible Sunday from a another wave of low pressure that may ride in from the west.

Obviously, interactions in the atmosphere between fronts and tropical systems are complex so we need to continue to watch this for any changes in the path.  Have a good night and enjoy the warmer temperatures this week! -Pete Mangione


Tropical Storm Cristobal: What does it mean for us?

August 24th, 2014 at 9:15 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of Sunday morning Tropical Storm Cristobal had winds of 45 mph and was approaching parts of the Bahamas.  Conditions will be favorable for the storm to strengthen over the next few days, this could make it either a stronger tropical storm or a hurricane.

There is still a lot of uncertainty in the track of the storm.  There is a chance it could drift into the Florida or the North/South Carolina coast.  The most likely scenario keeps it near the Florida and Carolina coast but never brings it onto land.  A bend back to the northeast is then expected mid-week.  Here is the updated track from the National Hurricane Center:

Crist_OneBlog

Notice that in the above track, the storm does not make it that close to southern New England.  However, we can’t rely on just one solution.  We need to account for some variation from this track; either closer or further away from southern New England.  IF the storm tries to get near us towards the end of the week, a cold front may help push it away. This front will bring the chance of showers.

Crish_Two

Based on all of the above, it is likely that Cristobal stays well offshore from southern New England.  That being said, some dangerous rip currents are possible as we head into the start of the Labor Day Weekend.  However, the weather itself looks OK.  We will continue to bring you more updates, enjoy the nice Sunday! -Pete Mangione

Crist_3

 

 


Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms

August 23rd, 2014 at 6:56 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Updated at 7AM On Sunday

Tropical Storm Cristobal is now here.  Winds are sustained at 45 mph.  IF the storm makes it offshore from New England, we are NOT expecting a landfall.  The storm may give us some rip currents, more information is below….

There are several different scenarios involving this tropical storm.  One scenario brings the storms into the Gulf of Mexico, another scenario brings it into Florida or North/ South Carolina.    The most likely scenario (and most agreed upon by the computer models) brings it into the northwest initially, but then bends it back out to sea as shown below.

CORRECTBLOG

 

IF the above scenario were to occur, it would likely be during the end of next week as a tropical storm or hurricane.  A front will likely be moving in from the northwest at the same time; this would help push the storm out to sea (sometimes fronts can be good!). The front could bring a few showers, but mostly dry weather is expected during this time.

That being said, we would still likely get some rip currents right before or during Labor Day Weekend.  Stay tuned as we need to see what happens with this storm over the next 48 hours to get a better idea of the path.  -Pete Mangione

 

 


Watching a Potential Tropical System Next Week

August 23rd, 2014 at 7:44 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

There is a disturbance near the Bahamas which has a good chance of turning into a tropical system over the next couple of days.  At this point, the majority of our computer models bring the storm offshore from the US east coast into the middle/end of next week.  There is no immediate threat to our area right now, but we could be looking at some rough surf and rip currents next week.

blogdasfdasfdasfas

 

 

WHY A COLD FRONT MAY BE A GOOD THING NEXT WEEK

A great way to keep hurricanes and tropical systems AWAY from New England is to bring in some kind of weather disturbance from the west.  There is a pretty good chance that, next week, a cold front will be approaching from the northwest at the same time that the tropical system is lurking in the Atlantic.   This front would act to keep the storm at sea…although some high surf may be able to make it to our shore.

We obviously need to look at more data to get a better handle on this potential tropical system.  We will bring you updates through out the weekend and into next week.  -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Sunday Update: A Few Showers, Dry Time Too

August 17th, 2014 at 9:15 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good morning! When I was on the air this morning, there were a few showers passing through around 6AM.  But after that, we cleared to partly cloudy skies and we ended up with a decent morning.  That being said, a front still has to clear the area this afternoon, so the chance of a shower or thunderstorms will still be with us.  Overall, there will be more dry time than shower time.  Sun will mix with clouds off and on today….we should get a pretty good sunset as dry winds from the west should help clear out our skies.  I will leave you with a breakdown of the shower threat.  Have a good Sunday! -Pete Mangione

Shower_Graph_Feat


Wild Wednesday: Morning Recap, Afternoon Outlook

August 13th, 2014 at 3:10 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heavy rain moved in this morning creating problems on many of our roads.  The heaviest of the rain ran along and to the west of I-95.  There were many reports of street flooding, especially in Cranston, Coventry, and Providence.  Here are a few pictures sent via our ReportIt feature.

CoventryFloodingBlog

 Coventry Flooding: Courtesy Shannon Moore

 

 

CranstonFloodingPic

Cranston Flooding

 

Our rainfall amounts ranged from about 1 to 4.5 inches.  Here are some totals as of Wednesday afternoon:

 

NewRainBlog

I put in the Islip (Long Island, NY)  number because it is such an incredible amount of rain! The Long Island Expressway was not a good place to be this morning!

 

WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING?

While the rain won’t be nearly as steady and as widespread as this morning, there will still be a threat of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.  A few of the storms could be strong with a small chance of damaging wind.  The threat of showers and rain should be gone by midnight (possibly a few hours sooner).

Our weather improves tomorrow and Friday with low humidity and comfortable temperatures. Have a good afternoon and evening! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 


Heavy Rain, Flash Flood Threat This Morning

August 13th, 2014 at 9:35 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heavy rain has moved into a good part of our viewing area.  A Flash Flood Warning is in place for much of Providence and Kent County.  These warning are in effect until 1:15 this afternoon.

I just looked at the observations at TF Green airport….between 8AM and 9AM 0.91 inches of rain fell, that is almost an inch per hour.

Here are some initial reports coming in courtesy of SKYWARN from the National Weather Service:

East Lyme, CT: 3.90″

Montville, CT: 4.84″

Canterbury, CT: 2.94″

Willimantic, CT: 2.04″

Cranston, RI: 1.56″

East Lyme, CT: 4.15″

Hebron, CT: 2.05″

Hampton, CT: 2.05″

Cranston, RI: 1.61″

 

Rainfall Reports (1″ or more):

Providence, RI: 1.38″

Coventry, RI:: 1.24″

 

Flood Reports:

924 AM: Cranston, RI: Cranston Street between Batcheller Avenue and Cavalry Street closed due to the flooding

 

Once we get into this afternoon, there will still be a threat of showers and downpours but there will likely be some lulls in the rain as well.  The Flash Flood Watch extends through this evening to account for the “potential” of additional flash flooding, even though it will not be raining the entire time.

Please do NOT drive through flooded intersections! -Pete Mangione

 


Watching Wednesday for Strong Storms

August 10th, 2014 at 9:25 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

There is a threat of some severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.  Here is a breakdown of what we know, and what we need to fine tune:

WHAT WE KNOW

-A humid air mass will move in during the middle of the week.

-Low pressure, series of fronts , and an active jet stream will also move in during the same time period.

-When you combine the above ingredients, severe weather becomes a possibility.

-Torrential downpours, lightning, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes are possible.

 

WHAT WE NEED TO FINE TUNE:

-How well do the storm ingredients come together? This will make the difference between a very active weather day and a day with just a few non-severe thunderstorms and rain showers.

-What is the timing? It looks like there is a threat of severe weather anytime from early Wednesday morning to Wednesday evening.  As we get closer to Wednesday, we should be able to determine which commute (morning or evening) is at a higher risk of being affected.

STAY TUNED THIS WEEK

Tony, Michelle, TJ, and I will be looking at more data this week.  Tune in for our on-air and online coverage to get more specifics.   Have a good week! -Pete Mangione

BlogWed

 

 

 


Thursday Evening Update: Hail and unconfirmed report of a water spout

August 7th, 2014 at 4:38 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Update at 6:30PM

During our newscast, Tony and I noticed some possible rotation in a storm just offhsore from Little Compton, RI.  Here is snapshot from the RADAR….

RAD_TORN

That same thunderstorm moved to the southeast and we are now getting unconfirmed reports of a water spout just a few miles offshore from Martha’s Vineyard.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
603 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     WATER SPOUT      10 NW AQUINNAH          41.44N  70.95W
08/07/2014                   ANZ234             MA   AIRPLANE PILOT

            PILOT REPORTS WATERSPOUT 10 MILES NW OF MARTHAS
            VINEYARD IN RI SOUND

Stay tuned…we will continue to update you on this.

We have also been tracking isolated but strong thunderstorms this afternoon.  Not everyone is getting these storms, but some cities and town have been hit by hail.  This picture of hail is from Chepachet courtesy of TeriLyn Colaluca.

Chepachet Hail  - Terilyn

 

There were multiple reports of hail; I saw one from Middetown, RI with 1 inch hail!

There is a very cold pool of air sitting high overhead, and that will act as our trigger for the storms through early this evening.  The activity should start to wind down by around 7PM.  We will be on t he air from 5 to 6:30 on WPRI, and from 6:30 to 7 on FOX Providence with the latest information.  -Pete Mangione


Sunday Showers, but not as Heavy

August 3rd, 2014 at 9:08 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Some more showers to get through today, but overall, not as much rain as what we had on Saturday.  This morning, everyone has a good chance of getting showers.  They will be off/on and light for the most part (although anytime you have tropical moisture involved, you can’t completely rule out a quick downpour).

The best chance of showers arrives later morning into the early afternoon, and then the chance drops into the late afternoon.  Note the graph below:

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As shown above, the chance of showers drops in the afternoon, but locations to the south and east of I-95 may hang onto the showers a bit longer.  Note the map below:

Sunday_Aft_Bloggggggggggg

 

If you are headed out today, bring the rain jacket or umbrella.  While it won’t be raining the entire time, some showers will still be passing through.  There may be a few slivers of sun late today, especially for western Rhode Island.  Have a good day! -Pete Mangione

 

 


Our Weekend Outlook…Saturday Update

August 2nd, 2014 at 8:32 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Not a very good day for outdoor activities with showers moving through.  The showers look like they will be at the steadiest from late morning into the mid afternoon.  A few showers could be heavy with the threat of isolated downpours and thunderstorms.

RADAR_BloG

By the late  afternoon and night, there are signs that the steadiest of showers will shift to the south and east out towards Cape Cod.  This would leave the vast majority of our viewing area getting light and less frequent rain showers.

 SUNDAY: The majority of our computer models are keeping the core of moisture offshore for Sunday, giving us just some occasional showers.  However, we need to watch this forecast carefully.  Tropical moisture can be very tricky to forecast, and any little change in the track of the moisture could translate to big changes to the Sunday forecast.  IF the track of the storm were to shift west slightly,  areas south and east of I-95 have the best chance of seeing more frequent showers.

SundayCatets

 

BERTHA: As of Saturday morning, Bertha is still a tropical storm with winds of 50 mph.  The track from the National Hurricane Center still keeps it offshore form the mainland US into early next week.  Have a good day! -Pete Mangione

Hurrrrr

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Weekend Update

August 1st, 2014 at 8:03 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Updated Friday at 12:30PM

The chance for showers will increase as we head into the weekend.  The threat of showers (and even a few downpours) will be with us the entire weekend.  It is unlikely that it rains for the entire weekend, so if you are planning outdoor activities, be aware of the potential for interruptions.   Best chance of some heavy downpours? That may actually hold off until very early Sunday morning.

Rain_Tweet_f

 

However, the timing could still change so stay tuned as we look at more data through out the weekend.  I am optimistically putting in some sun for Sunday afternoon, but there is a risk that showers and downpours will still be there.

Tropical Storm Bertha

As of early afternoon, Bertha is a tropical storm with winds of 50 mph.  She will move to the northwest over the next several days, and then likely sit somewhere offshore from the mainland US by early next week.

150722W5_NL_sm

By next week, the forecast becomes very uncertain, so we will need to watch this system carefully.  As of now, it is not a threat to the mainland US.  -Pete Mangione


Some Dry Time, but Strong T-Storms Still Possible

July 28th, 2014 at 5:06 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Updated at 9:30 AM:

We are currently in a lull as the downpours from this morning have moved up to our north.  However, if we can sneak in a little sun today…a few more showers and thunderstorms could fire up.  So while there is plenty of dry time, we can’t completely rule out a severe threat.

REST OF MORNING: Plenty of dry time with a little hazy sun possible.  There will be a chance of an isolated shower or strong thunderstorm.

FLASH FLOODING THREAT: Low

WIND DAMAGE THREAT: Low

 

AFTERNOON: Some breaks of sun are possible, but this could actually fire up a few additional showers and thunderstorms.

FLASH FLOODING THREAT: Low

WIND DAMAGE THREAT: Low to Moderate

 

Summary: Even though it won’t be raining the entire day, we need to be on alert for the potential of showers and thunderstorms for the entire day.  There is a SLIGHT risk of an isolated tornado.

Stay tuned and we will keep you updated! -Pete Mangione

 

 


A Few Strong Storms Possible Today, Better Chance Monday

July 27th, 2014 at 8:14 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Updated at 2:00 PM

If we get a little sun late this afternoon and early evening, that would be our best shot to get some strong thunderstorms.  I would say the chance of those storms turning severe is low, but it is still a possibility.    After that, the next decent chance of severe weather would be overnight into Monday morning.   Please read below for more information.

 

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Here is a breakdown of the severe storm threat:

Now to 8PM: While there will be plenty of dry time during this period, there is a slight chance of severe storms (especially if we can sneak in some sun to heat up the atmosphere).   Inland areas have the best chance (even though it’s a small chance) of getting flash flooding and wind damage, the coast has as a much smaller chance.

8PM to 12AM: The storm threat will still be there, but there will likely be plenty of lulls in the action.

12AM Monday to Monday Noon: The chance of some strong thunderstorms increases, with flash flooding being the biggest threat.

Please stay tuned through out the afternoon, we will continue to update this blog.

-Pete Mangione

 


Cool Shot of Air Next Week…Does it Affect New England?

July 23rd, 2014 at 5:04 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

You may have already heard about the cool air moving in next week.  It is likely that much of the mid-west, northern plains, and even parts of the northeast will be affected by this cool plunge.  However, for our viewing area here in southern New England, the cool-down might not be quite as extreme.

As projected by the European model, here is a look at surface temperatures next Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Graphic_Blog

Image Courtesy accuweather.com

Note the temperatures in the 50s and 60s around the Great Lakes region. That’s pretty cool stuff for a summer afternoon in that part of the country.  Also note the 70s showing up for Southern New England.  Because of the time zone difference, this actually represents Tuesday evening on the east coast…so 70s on the east coast is really not that unusual.

So why will this affect out neighbors to the west more than us? A lot of it has to do with what is going on high up in the atmosphere.  As projected by the European model, here is what is going on at 500 millibars next Tuesday afternoon/evening. (The height of 500 millibars varies by temperature, but it averages several miles above the surface of the earth).

Graphic_Blog_2

Image Courtesy accuweather.com

The 500mb chart is usually a great way to show large scale weather patterns.  If you think of the chart like a mountain range, the ridges often represent the warmer weather and the dips often represent the cooler weather.  Notice the major dip from Canada all the way down into the Tennessee Valley…but also notice that New England is more on the edge of the dip than the center of the dip.  This suggests that the cold plunge will be more of a “glancing blow” than a direct hit for southern New England.

That being said, we are still almost a week away from the event, and the computer models can sometimes underestimate these cool air invasions.  We will keep you posted! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Periods of Heavy Rain, Strong T-Storms Monday into Wednesday

July 13th, 2014 at 8:13 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data coming in continues to support the threat of showers and strong thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday.  One change I am noticing is the tendency for the front to slow down; this translates to the showers lasting longer into Wednesday afternoon, rather than wrapping up in the morning.

MONDAY: Periods of showers and strong thunderstorms will move through.  This still does NOT look like a washout, but Tony will look at more data Sunday night to see if this changes.

*RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING: MODERATE

*RISK OF DAMAGING WIND: LOW TO MODERATE (Highest for northern and western Rhode Island)

 

TUESDAY: Another humid day with the chance of showers and strong thunderstorms.  The showers and thunderstorms look like they will be more frequent than on Monday, especially by the afternoon.  The heaviest of the rain may fall Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

*RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING: MODERATE TO HIGH

*RISK OF DAMAGING WIND: LOW TO MODERATE

 

WEDNESDAY: This axis of heaviest rainfall looks like it pulls through on Wednesday morning; therefore the Wednesday morning commute could be a rough one.  As mentioned above, the front responsible for the showers and T-storms looks like it will take its time moving through southern New England.  Therefore, some showers and thunderstorms are still possible through out the afternoon.

*RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING: MODERATE TO HIGH

*RISK OF DAMAGING WIND: LOW TO MODERATE

blograin

 

The timing on all of this could change, so stay tuned for adjustments.  Tony will have another look at the data soon. Have a good Sunday! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 


Could be Wet and Wild for First Part of Work Week

July 12th, 2014 at 6:35 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New information continues to come in regarding the showers and thunderstorms for the first part of the work week; this new information is very consistent with previou0s data… it keeps the timing from Monday until about Wednesday morning.

Monday: There will be periods of showers and thunderstorms; some of which could be quite strong bringing heavy downpours and damaging winds.  The difficult part of this forecast is determining whether Monday will be a washout or not.  For now, I will say no washout with a decent amount of dry time mixed in with the rain.  However, one of our computer models is more aggressive and stalls a boundary right over southern New England.  I would like to look at more data before making a final call about whether Monday is a “watch a movie” type of day.

TUESDAY: This looks like the best chance for a washout with periods of showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain.  Just like Monday, a few of these storms will have the potential of damaging winds and flash flooding.

WEDNESDAY: Showers and thunderstorms are likely at least through the early morning, and then things should gradually improve during the afternoon.  It is THIS part of the forecast that is subject to the most change; if the front speeds up by a few hours, Wednesday afternoon could be a nice day.  If the front slows down by a few hours, Wednesday could end up a washout.

We will keep fine tuning the timing and details over the next few days. -Pete Mangione

 

 


Friday rain caused a lot of problems, but it wasn’t all bad

July 5th, 2014 at 8:24 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We never want to see a situation like we did in New Bedford with almost 8 inches of rain.  That is WAY too much rain at one time.   A lot of our viewing area was a little more fortunate, with rainfall generally between 2 and 4.5 inches.  (That’s still a lot in one day!)

So what is the silver lining in the Friday rain? It did bring some much needed rainfall to a lot of lawns and gardens, which really needed it.  The graphic below uses rainfall since June 1 at TF Green Airport.  Notice how we turned a deficit into a surplus! -Pete Mangione

Pete_Blog_Water


Flash Floods, Arthur, and the rest of the 4th

July 4th, 2014 at 1:29 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The impacts of Arthur really started to get going this afternoon….a Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Providence, Warwick, Cranston, and for portions of Kent, Washington, and Providence County.  Here was the scene on RADAR earlier.

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Arthur is still a category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph.  You can see it has started to merge with the front moving over our area.

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Arthur will remain offshore and make his closest pass late tonight….he will give us some heavy rain before that happens.  Look for showers and downpours to continue until 9 or 10PM.   If he speeds up, we may be able to get them out of here a little sooner.  It may get windy tonight with gusts around 3o mph, so some isolated wind damage is possible.  But our main threat will be street flooding, please don’t drive through flooded roads.  More updates soon. -Pete Mangione