Updated on Saturday morning…..
Tony, Michelle, TJ and I will be updating this through Thanksgiving, so please keep checking back. At this point, it looks like most of this potential storm would be gone by early Thursday morning, so we will focus on Wednesday for now. Here is an early look at the forecast for Wednesday, the busiest travel day of the year!
Here is a brief summary of the potential impacts to travel on Wednesday:
Chance of significant Airport Delays: 50%
Chance of significant Road Impacts in Our Viewing Area: 20%
Chance of significant Road Impacts in northern and western New England: 30%
Here is a brief summary of expected precipitation type:
Chance of Rain in our Viewing Area: 60%
Chance of Snow in our Viewing Area: 15%
Chance of Rain in northern and western New England: 50%
Chance of Snow in northern and western New England: 40%
Airport Delay Details
If we are talking about ONLY TF Green Airport, I would say there is about a 10% chance that conditions will be unflyable. It that 10% chance was realized, it would probably be due to gusty winds, low clouds, fog, or heavy rain. The chance of flight delays due to snow appears very unlikely at this point. Even if heavy rain or fog did create a delay, the delays likely wouldn’t last very long.
So why do I have a “50% chance of airport delays” above? Because the weather can be sunny and 70 at TF Green, but if there are weather issues in other parts of the country, your plane can still be affected. On Wednesday morning, there is a good chance of rain and even a few thunderstorms up and down the east coast. Whether you are flying or hosting a loved one for the holidays, delays are possible from Florida all the way up into New England. This includes all those major cities in between like Charlotte, Philadelphia, New York City, Washington DC, and Boston. On a busy travel day like Wednesday, I would not be surprised to see a scenario like this…….one plane is delayed, this causes a backup, and then other planes start getting delayed.
What about cities to our west like Chicago? Here is the good news! Other then the east coast, the weather across much of the country looks very quiet on Wednesday. This includes Chicago O’Hare. This airport handles many connections, so having good weather here is important! Some rain is possible in California and some lake effect snow is possible around Buffalo. Other then that, we are looking good!
Road Impacts in Our Viewing Area: Details
If we do get weather-related delays on Wednesday, it will likely be due to a combination of rain and wind. While there is chance of a few wet flakes, it is not likely to impact car travel.
This many days in advance, it is impossible to determine exactly if and where flooding might occur. Based on current information, widespread street flooding appears unlikely. There is about a 10% chance that a few spots might experience street flooding that would slow down your travel. We will be able to get more details on the flooding potential in the coming days.
It’s possible that Wednesday will have several hours of very gusty winds. If this happens, you (or your visitors) will want to be mindful of downed tree limbs and also keep two hands on the steering wheel. Overall, the winds should not create any major traffic delays on their own.
Road Impacts in northern and western New England: Details
You can apply everything I just wrote about “Road Impacts in Our Viewing Area” . In addition, there is also a potential of some snow! Keep in mind, this storm could be a complete miss and we end up with completely dry roads. However, if the storm sets up in just the right place, snow could be an issue to our north and west (especially north of the Mass Pike). This could create problems with visibility and even slick roads. Even if we don’t get snow, sleet or freezing rain could create some delays on the roads as well. However, the chances are still low that snow or freezing precipitation create major delays on the roads…but it is something we will me monitoring.