petemangione

Marathon Monday: Runner’s Delight

April 20th, 2014 at 9:39 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Happy Easter! TJ has a great description of what to expect for Easter Sunday, so please see the previous blog post (just scroll down) for more details on Easter.  For details on the Boston Marathon weather, please keep on reading this post!

MARATHON MONDAY

The weather looks great as we head into Marathon Monday! Early morning runners will start with temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Runners starting in the late morning may already get temperatures in the upper 40s or low 50s.  Not too cool, not too warm….almost perfect racing conditions!

By the afternoon, I expect highs in Boston to hit the low 60s.  This is because winds will NOT be coming out of the east like they are for Sunday.  Instead, they will be coming out of the south.  In Boston, a south wind is usually warmer (this time of year) than a wind from the east.  That’s because the east wind comes directly off the water,  while the south wind can have either land or sea influence.

If you are watching the race or headed to the Red Sox game, take the jacket with you for the morning hours.  You may be able to shed that by the afternoon, although if you are in a shaded area it will be a good thing to have with you for the entire day.  Have a great rest of the weekend and a great Monday! -Pete Mangione

 

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Cold Front Makes it Mild Today

April 19th, 2014 at 8:23 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A cold front will move through today, but it will actually be milder by the afternoon.  So how does that make any sense?

This air behind the cold front is not actually that cold…instead it should be called a cool front.  In addition, after the front moves through, it will force winds to be form the west-northwest.  That is a “land” direction for us, meaning that we will get dry and mild breezes instead of the cooler sea-breezes that often affect us this time of year.

The front will bring in some clouds, but overall we are looking at more sun than clouds.  Winds will also be busy during the afternoon; some gusts of 25 to 3o mph are possible.  Other than that, a nice Saturday!

-Pete Mangione

SAT_SAT_AFTERNOON


Monday Winds of Change

April 14th, 2014 at 12:03 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Temperatures will be a little warmer on Monday, but it will also be windier.  For much of Sunday, winds were from the south.  With a chilly ocean, this had a major cooling effect at the coast keeping temperatures in the mid 50s.  But the southerly winds also had a cooling effect in Providence as the cooler air came right up the bay.

On Monday, winds will be from the southwest instead of the south.  This wind direction has a little more of a “land” influence to it; that’s why Providence should be a few degrees warmer.  Here is a snapshot at 2PM on Monday.

SNE_Temperature_Forecast_GO_Blog

 

Enjoy these temperatures while we have them, because big changes are on the way.  Some spots could be below freezing by Thursday morning! -Pete Mangione

 


Sea Breeze Effect is On This Weekend

April 12th, 2014 at 8:47 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Air temperatures will try to warm into the 60s and 70s this weekend, but ocean temperatures are still in the 40s.  What does that mean? A sea breeze of course!  While this will affect our weather on both Saturday and Sunday, there will be a few key differences in the way each day develops.

SATURDAY (TODAY)

Winds will start from a “land” direction (west-northwest) during the morning.  They will then start to bend from the south-southwest through out the day.  But because the process will take a while to happen,  I would not be surprised if the coast hits the low 60s during the late morning and early afternoon.  From the mid to the late afternoon, the sea breeze effect will start to take over and pull temperatures back down into the low 50s.

SUNDAY

Wind will be stronger and more consistent through out the day from the south.  Because of this, the coast may never make it out of the mid 50s; inland areas should make it into the mid 60s.  Basically, look for a BIG difference between coastal and inland areas.  Here is a snapshot of Sunday early afternoon temperatures.

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Note the Providence temperature in the low 60s.  Providence and other areas adjacent to Narragansett Bay can be tricky because winds from the south can create a cooling affect from “bay breezes”.  That’s why on Sunday, places away from the bay (like Smithfield) should end up warmer then Providence.

Have a good weekend! -Pete Mangione

 

 


7 Day Futurecast: History Making?

April 6th, 2014 at 9:12 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Today should be the 6th consecutive day of high temperatures of at least 50 degrees.  As I was putting together the 7 Day Futurecast this weekend, I noticed that every day had a high temperature of at least 50 degrees.  Check it out…doesn’t it look nice?

fdsasfdasfasdfdasfdasfddfdasf

 

This made me think…when was the last time we had 7 days in a row with a high of at least 50?  I should caution, I quickly did some research on this earlier this morning…so this is not OFFICIAL.  But based on what I could find, the last time this occurred was October and November of last year.  Here are those high temperatures:

October 28: 61
October 29: 53
October 30: 58 
October 31: 65  
November 1: 70
Novemer 2: 66  
November 3: 54 

It’s been quite a while! So enjoy the next few days. -Pete Mangione

 


Mild Afternoons, Cool Nights

April 5th, 2014 at 7:54 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

April is that time of year when we often get nice afternoons but chilly nights.  This weekend is a great example of that.  Check out the forecast for this afternoon….

SaturdayAfternoonGoNow

 

Now compare that to tonight, when temperatures will tumble into the 40s, and eventually the low 30s by early Sunday morning!

 

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Despite the chilly start Sunday morning, temperatures will recover into the upper 50s by Sunday afternoon.

There is some potential rain on the way Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Some of the rain could be heavy, so this is something we will keep an eye on for the next several days.  Have a great weekend!

-Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Some More Showers to Get Through; River Warnings In Place

March 30th, 2014 at 7:46 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

While we are not going to see anything like we saw this morning, we will have a few more rounds of showers moving through.   First, here is an updated list of afternoon rain totals.  These are very impressive considering most of this came down in less than 24 hours! Obviously, it caused a lot of flooding this morning.

Pete_Twit_totals

 

Now through Midnight: More showers will be moving through, and a few could be heavy.  However, there will also be some rain-free time.  Areas that had flooding earlier today will be at a slight risk of flooding again.  It won’t take that much rain to create problems in areas with standing water or in spots near swollen rivers and streams.

Midnight into Monday Morning: Rain showers could briefly mix with snow or sleet, but no accumulation is expected.  A few slick spots are possible, especially north and west of 295.  Winds will be gusting from the north at 30 mph and temperatures will be dropping into the 30s.

Monday Afternoon: A raw day with highs only in the 40s, and wind chills in the upper 20s to low 30s.  A few more showers will move through, but the primary flood threat should be over at this point.

 River Warnings

The Pawtuxet River in Cranston is currently in minor flood stage and should be cresting this evening.

The Pawcatuck River in Westerly and Wood River Junction is currently in MODERATE flood stage.  If asked to evacuate, please do!

Click here for more information on current river levels.

We will be back with more updates through out the evening. -Pete Mangione

 


Worst is Over, but Flood Threat Not Quite Done

March 30th, 2014 at 8:08 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

UPDATED AT NOON

What a crazy morning! Here is a list of rain reports as of this morning.  We have included a list of flooding reports at the bottom of this blog.  There are many streets closed or blocked off, please use caution!

 

Rain_Totals

 

An Urban and Small Stream flood warning is in effect until 5:45PM .  Please do not drive through flooded roads or intersections!

A Flood Warning has been issued for the Pawtuxet River in Cranston; flooding is possible this afternoon.  Click here for more details on this warning.

A Flood Warning has been issued for the Pawcatuck River in Westerly; flooding is possible this afternoon and evening.  Click here for more details on the warning.

So the morning has been bad, any improvements this afternoon?

The threat of showers and downpours will be with us the entire day and night.  However, it looks like we will get some breaks in the rain at times during the afternoon.  Therefore, the worst of the rain is over, but we will have to monitor the threat of additional flooding in case any additional downpours fire up again. -Pete Mangione

BELOW IS THE SKYWARN REPORT COURTESY OF ROB MACEDO.

..Flash Flooding Across Southern Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts. New Bedford, MA area hit hard in past hour. Some locations like Dean, Sawyer and Weld Streets starting to recede but Rte 18 is still flooded significantly. Rte 6 by Lockheed Martin in Marion MA flooded and now receded..

714 AM: Westport, MA: Tree Down blocking Wires on Tickle Road
721 AM: Westport, MA: Portion of Bridge Street flooded by coastal flooding
723 AM: Dartmouth, MA: Smith Neck Road – significant flooding and impassable
729 AM: Westport, MA: portion of Old County Road flooded out
730 AM: Fall River, MA: 24 southbound ramp to I-195 west flooded out
740 AM: Westerly, RI: Canal Street – 2 feet of street flooding and impassable
745 AM: Bristol, RI: Franklin and James Streets flooded out
745 AM: Warren, RI: Main Street – 4″ of street flooding
745 AM: Warren, RI: Market Street by Samsonite Building – 6-8″ of street flooding and rising
745 AM: Fall River, MA: Plymouth Avenue Northbound (Globe and Swayne Street) 4 cars stuck in flood waters, devell and central street by carousel flooded out and closed
750 AM: Fall River, MA: 195 Eastbound at the base of Braga Bridge flooded out. Mass DOT notified
756 AM: South Kingstown, RI: Indian Run Brook out of its banks flooding part of his back yard. This brook runs from the Indian Run Reservoir to Saugatucket River
757 AM: Bristol, RI: Several Streets flooded out and several flooded basements
759 AM: Somerset, MA: Route 103 – one lane flooded and gras in the area is flooded with water running like a stream
810 AM: Warren, RI: 3 feet of street flooding on homestead avenue at 3rd street
813 AM: Westwood, MA: 2 left lanes of Rte 128 Northbound between exits 13 and 14 were closed due to flooding, that is now reopened at 843 AM.
820 AM: Westport, MA: Several flooded basements
825 AM: Dighton, MA: Lincoln Avenue – flooded basement
837 AM: New Bedford, MA: Philips Road by 7-11 flooded – clogged storm drain
839 AM: New Bedford, MA: River Road flooded out from Howard Avenue to Sylvia Street
900 AM: Bristol, RI: Redman Street – water flowing – 10″ deep in the area of Ward Street
902 AM: Richmond, RI: Flooded basement – 6″ of water, Kingstown Road
904 AM: Taunton, MA: County St. Rte. 140 by Pete’s Market is closed due to flooding
904 AM: Warren, RI: Long Wharf Drive and Columbus Street – one foot of street flooding
905 AM: Marion, MA: Rte 6 in the area of Creek Street 2 lanes flooded out, same condition on Rte 6 at lockheed martin. Point road – flooded basement
910 AM: Warren, RI:  Route 114 from Dyer Street to Bridge Street – flooded
915 AM: New Bedford, MA: Route 18 closed due to flooding, 4 cars stuck in flood waters on Acushnet Avenue, manhole covers popped out of road
920 AM: Bristol, RI: Chestnut Street closed due to flooding.
922 AM: Bristol, RI: Downtown area – Agave restaurant, Cataras School flooded up over the road and Thames Street, minimimum of 1 foot of water
926 AM: New Bedford, MA: Belleville Ave and Sawyer Street – 1.5-2 feet of flooding
927 AM: New Bedford, MA: Dean and Purchase Street – 3 feet of street flooding
928 AM: New Bedford, MA: Sawyer and Purchase Street – 3 feet of street flooding – cars stuck in flood waters
930 AM: New Bedford, MA: Rte 18 Ramp to Weld Street closed due to flooding – car stuck in flood waters
936 AM: Acushnet, MA: House being flooded on Gammon Road, Hamlin Street by the bridge flooded and impasable
943 AM: Bristol, RI: Rte 114 toward Mount Hope Bridge by Lobster Pot closed due to flooding
945 AM: Westerly, RI: Spring Brook in White Rock section of town is out of its banks, water approaching homes.
949 AM: New Bedford, MA: Liberty and Hunter Street – 2.5 feet of street flooding, cars trying to get through it regardless.
953 AM: New Bedford, MA: new bedford, ma: west rodney french boulevard is flooded and impassable.
958 AM: Chelmsford, MA: Boston Road near Brian Road is closed due to flooding and will remain closed until mid-week due to culvert washout
1020 AM: Marion, MA: Spring Street by Tabor Academy closed due to flooding.

Regards,

Rob Macedo (KD1CY)

 

 

 


Rain is here, and will stick around for a while

March 29th, 2014 at 7:29 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The rain started falling earlier today and it will keep up for a good part of the weekend.  Here is a timeline:

8PM to 12AM: Rain continues with some heavy periods of rain possible.  If you have Saturday night plans, you don’t have to cancel them but use caution; puddles on the roads and highways will create a risk of hyrdoplaning.

 

BlogRN_1

 

 

Sun. 12AM to 8AM: This is when I expect the heaviest of the rain to be falling.  A soaking, steady rain will have a few downpours mixing in as well.  Small streams and poor drainage areas on the roads have the potential of  minor flooding.

 

BlogRN_2

 

Sun. 8AM to Monday AM: While there will be some lulls in the heavy rain, it never completely turns off. Expect drizzle and showers to be off and on into the afternoon, night, and Monday morning.  Small streams, rivers, and poor drainage areas will still have to be monitored.

 

Blog_RN_3

 

Grand totals by Monday Morning: 1.5 to 3 inches.

We will be on the air and online with more updates through out the weekend! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 

 


Saturday Afternoon Into Sunday Soaker

March 29th, 2014 at 7:39 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After a mostly rain-free Saturday morning, things will start to change this afternoon into Monday.

Some initial showers are possible from 11AM to 2PM.  These will start in southwestern areas first (around Westerly) and spread to the northeast.  Most of these showers should be light, and not everyone will get them during this time frame.

From 2PM to 8PM, the showers will come down at light to moderate levels.  Bring the umbrella or rain jacket with you if you are headed outdoors.

From 8PM into Sunday, some pockets of heavy rain will be moving through.  1 to 3 inches of rain is possible; this will lead to the possibility of some minor street flooding.  While it won’t be great on the roads for most of this weekend, an especially bad time could be Sunday morning.  Sunday morning is when the rain will be coming down the hardest with potential ponding on the roads.

From Sunday night into Monday, some additional rain is likely.  Grand totals for rain by Monday morning could range from 2 to 4 inches.

I will be posting more updates through out the weekend! -Pete Mangione

 

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Weekend Headlines

March 28th, 2014 at 12:42 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

With rain on the way, it’s not going to be a great weekend.  However, at least it’s not going to be brutally cold!  Here is a breakdown of the “good” and the “bad”:

 

THE BAD:

1) 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible this weekend.   A few isolated areas of 3 inches are possible.

2) Sunday does not look like a good outdoor day with morning heavy rain, followed by a damp and cooler afternoon.

3) The Friday evening commute will have some off/on showers.

 

THE GOOD:

1) Saturday morning looks dry with a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50.

2) The Friday evening showers look mostly light, so I am not expecting major impacts to the ride home from work.

3) It looks warm enough to keep the precipitation rain (not snow).

 

I will be on the air this weekend with more updates.  Have a great day! -Pete Mangione

Blog_Fri_Fri_Go_Go

 

 

 

 

 


Green Jackets Needed Next 2 Days

March 16th, 2014 at 8:39 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

There is still a chance we could see a flurry or two on the coast on St. Patrick’s Day, but the theme of the next couple of days will be more about cold than snow.

This current cold blast of air fits in well with the weather pattern for the first half of March: every time we get a nice, mild day it’s always followed by a big drop in temperatures.  Big temperatures swings are actually common for the month of March; but this month seems especially extreme.

Below is a high temperature breakdown for the first half of this month; note that 8 out of 15 days never made it into the 40s! Also notice the forecast for today and tomorrow; 2 more chilly days on the way.

 

Blog_Sun_Cold

 

Today: Highs will be in the 30s, but a busy breeze from the northwest will keep wind chills in the 20s.

 

Image_Discussion

 

While there could be a few flurries at the coast for St. Patrick’s Day, most of us will not get snow. It will be cold with highs in the upper 20s.  Stay warm! -Pete Mangione

 

Blog_Eve_Sat

 

 

 

 

 


Luck of Irish for Monday Snow

March 15th, 2014 at 7:52 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Here is the good news: the possible snow that we were discussing for Monday (St. Patrick’s Day) looks like it will be mostly a “miss”.

Here is the bad news: Sunday and Monday will be chilly. In fact, temperatures may start in the teens and single digits, and only make it into the 20s by Monday afternoon.  Green jackets are suggested!

Blog_Eve_Sat

 

 

Impacts on St. Patrick’s Day: There may be a few snow showers at the coast, but snow should not impact this day very much.  You will need the green jackets as highs will only be in the 30s.

What Could Change?: The snow and moisture could end up making it a little further north than the current track.  Therefore, we can’t completely write off accumulating snow for Monday.  Based on current data, accumulating snow looks unlikely but stay tuned to our forecasts through out the weekend for any changes.  Hopefully, the “luck of the Irish” will help to kick the snow south, as shown in the graphic below.  Have a good weekend! -Pete Mangione

Snow_Lep

 

 

 

 

 


Storm Timing and Impacts

March 11th, 2014 at 7:16 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Wednesday 11AM to 2PM:  First rain drops start coming down.

Wednesday 2PM to 8PM: Rain becomes steadier.  While most of the rain will be light to moderate, a few heavy periods of rain are possible.

Impacts: The evening commute will be a little slower with some puddles and possible ponding on the roadways.  At this time, we are not expecting major street flooding but we will have to monitor the situation to see if/where the heavy bands of rain set up.

WEDNESDAY 8PM to Thursday 2AM: This is when the rain will be coming down the heaviest.  Snow/sleet may also start to fall north and west of 295.  Winds will start gusting between 20-30 mph.

Impacts: Some minor street flooding is possible.  North and west of 295, temperatures may drop quickly triggering a flash freeze and the possibility of black ice.  

THURSDAY 2AM to Noon: Temperatures will fall below freezing and rain will turn to snow pretty much everywhere.  Snow accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches are expected.  Winds will be strong with gusts of 35 to 45 mph.

Impacts: A slower commute is likely with slick roads and brief periods of poor visibility.  Black ICE will be the biggest concern and sub-freezing temperatures could quickly freeze any moisture that is on the roads.  Widespread power outages are unlikely, but make sure to use 2 hands while you drive as the gusts may try to grab your car a little.

Below is a look at snow and rain accumulations.  Have a good evening! -Pete Mangione

 

Rain_Blog_1

 

Rain_Blog_2

 

 

 

 

 


Inside Track On Mid-Week Storm

March 10th, 2014 at 7:14 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Data has been very consistent over the past 24 to 48 hours showing a mid-wee storm that will put down more rain than snow.  This time of year, storms that go right over the top of us or to the west of us are typically rain makers.  Storms that track “just” to our southeast are typically snow makers.

Keep in mind, any change in the storm track could affect our snow accumulations, but we are becoming more confident that this will not be a big snow storm.

Below, I break down the storm into two parts.  Part 1 is the rainy part, and this could slow down the Wednesday evening commute…especially during potential downpours.  Part 2 is the snowy part, but this is most iffy part of the forecast.  If the storm pulls away a little faster than anticipated, we could end up with almost no snow at all.  If it lingers, we would have to increase the accumulations.  Stay tuned! -Pete Mangione

fjSNNNNNNNNNN

 

 

THUSURESREWREWRW

 


Sunday Night Update: 2 Chances of Snow

March 9th, 2014 at 9:16 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We will see several chances of snow this week.  It’s a good thing that we had temperatures in the upper 50s on Saturday which melted some of those stubborn snow/ice patches! (although not all of them)

First Chance of Snow….Monday AM through Noon:

This does not look like a major event.  Spotty snow will move in overnight, and then continue off and on through about 1 or 2 PM.  Towards the noon hour, some of the snow showers may mix with rain showers.  Most of us will end up with no accumulation…a few isolated spots may bet a coating to a half an inch.  You may want to allow an extra few minutes to get to work, but I am not expecting any major impacts to the Monday morning commute.

 

New_Accum_Go_Mon

Next Chance of Snow….Wednesday Evening into Thursday Morning

The chunk of energy that will be responsible for the potential mid-week storm has not even arrived to the west coast of the mainland US.  Therefore, we still can’t forecast specific snow accumulations.  We will know more over the next 24 to 48 hours as the storm starts to track through the country and we get more reliable data.

Several different scenarios are possible:  a complete miss, mostly rain, mostly snow, or a combination of rain/snow sleet.  If we end up getting mostly snow, this would be a significant, plowable snow event.  However, if we end up getting mostly rain, we could end up with a sloppy inch or 2.  Stay tuned as we look at more information.

In terms of the timing, new data coming in this morning has shifted things a little earlier.  This means that the storm could POTENTIALLY bring impacts to the Wednesday evening commute and the Thursday morning commute.

Have a good week! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 


Late Night Blog Update

March 2nd, 2014 at 10:57 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

This will be very brief….data continues to show smaller and smaller snow amounts.  Here is a quick briefing

I have posted an updated snow map below.

For inland areas, I have replaced “dusting” with “zero” because there may be many spots that simply get nothing at all.   However, there will still be isolated areas which could reach an inch.

For the coast, I now have a dusting to 2 inches.  The 2 inch amounts will probably be very isolated and the exception rather than the rule.

Have a good night and Monday! -Pete Mangione

blogSunLAteNIGHT

 

 


With Each New Forecast, The Snow Numbers Go Down

March 2nd, 2014 at 7:19 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The trend of shrinking snow amounts continues…most of us will get a dusting to about 1″ of snow overnight into early Monday morning.  I would not be surprised if many areas north and west of Providence end up with nothing.

While the snow amounts will not be impressive, the timing is a little inconvenient.  Most of the snow that does fall will do so from about 12AM to 7AM Monday morning.  This means some slick spots are possible for the morning commute, especially at the south coast where the amounts may be slightly higher.   In terms of getting to work on time, it’s not a bad idea to allow an extra few minutes Monday morning (especially if you live or work on the south shore).  Overall, I am not expecting any significant impacts to the commute.

Here are those trimmed snow totals, I will have updates on the air tonight at 10PM on FOX Providence and 11PM on WPRI 12.  While I am not anticipating making major changes to the forecast, there may be a few tweaks.  Have a good night! -Pete Mangione

Blog_Snow_Sun_Night


Sunday Morning Update on Sunday Night into Monday Snow

March 2nd, 2014 at 9:12 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

This storm continues to look more like a “miss” than a “hit”.  We can thank the arctic air for that.  Basically, the dry, arctic air will help push the moisture to the south keeping MOST of it offshore.  The bad news? Once that arctic air slides back in, it’s going to make for a very cold first half of the work week!

Here is an updated timeline:

TODAY: Scattered snow showers with temperatures in the mid 30s; some mixing to rain is possible at the coast.  While most of the snow will be light, some brief bursts of snow are possible which could temporarily drop visibility and put a quick coating on the road.

BY 8PM ON THE GROUND: A coating to 1″ of snow.

8PM to 12AM: Light off/on snow with temperatures falling into the 20s.

12AM to 8AM: Off/on snow with temperatures in the teens and 20s.   The snow will be steadier towards the coast, and lighter for inland areas including the Providence metro area.   I am expecting minor slowdowns for the AM commute; but the coast could see a a little more impact (moderate slowdowns but nothing impassible).  The RMP model forecast below does a great drop showing the extent of the moisture cutoff line.

RPM_Model_Blog

 

8AM to NOON: Some lingering snow showers possible, but the bulk of the snow should be gone by this point.

 

HOW MUCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON?

We still have to watch the south coast carefully…these amounts are still subject to change. -Pete Mangione

 

Blog_Accum_Forecast

 

 

 

 

 


Sunday/Monday Snow Amounts Shrinking

March 1st, 2014 at 6:58 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of Saturday evening, new data suggests a decreases in expected snowfall amounts.  Arctic air looks like it will push the storm MOSTLY to the south of us.  However, we still get scraped, and the south coast is still at risk for having some moderate to heavy bands of snow move through.

Here is an updated timeline:

Sunday morning until 7PM: Off/on light snow showers will be moving through.  A little mixing to rain is also possible, but it looks like mostly snow.  A few moderate bands of snow are possible; as always, these could temporarily drop visibility and put a quick coating on the road.

ON THE GROUND BY SUNDAY 7PM: A coating to 1″

SUNDAY 7pm TO MONDAY NOON: Periods of light snow. There will be some occasional pockets of heavier snow, primarily at the coast.  For inland areas including the Providence metro area, it does not look like the Monday AM commute will be severely impacted.  The coast could see some potential impacts as the snow may be a bit steadier here.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: Lingering snow is possible, but most of the snow should be over by this point.  Some slick spots are possible for the evening commute.

ANY CONCERNS ABOUT FORECAST CHANGES?

My main concern would be if the moisture makes it further north than most of the data suggests.  If that happened, then the south coast could see a more significant snowfall event.  It doesn’t look like that is going to happen, but still a scenario that I can’t completely write off.

HOW MUCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING?

Please see the graphic below; and stay tuned for any changes. -Pete Mangione

 

Blog_Accum_Forecast

 

 

 


Saturday Morning Update on Sun. Night / Monday Snow

March 1st, 2014 at 8:40 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As things stand now, this is an especially tricky forecast.  That is because the main chunk of energy that will be responsible for the snow still has to make it across a good part of the country.  During that journey, a lot can change in terms of storm strength, speed, and track.

It does looks there will be a narrow strip of significant accumulation (6″ to 12″) with this storm.  However, it is still very uncertain where that narrow strip will set up.  It could set up just to our south, leaving us with just light to moderate accumulations.  It could set up along our south shore, giving the coast a good thumping but leaving the rest of us with just mild accumulations.  Or, it could set up right over southern New England which would give all of us significant amounts of snow.   You get the idea…..we need to look at more data through out the day before we start fine tuning the forecast.

EARLY CALL ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS

We are going with 2″ to 5″ on the ground by Monday evening; but don’t be surprised if we adjust this range through out the weekend.  Most of the accumulation looks like it would occur Sunday night (after 8PM) into early Monday afternoon.  Therefore, there will be likely impacts for the morning commute, but not quite as much impact for the evening commute.  Of course, a shift in storm timing by just a few hours could put the evening commute more at risk.

Below is a general timeline below….notice that we will get some rain/snow on Sunday, but not much accumulation until Sunday night. -Pete Mangione

Map1

 

 

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Most of Light Snow Over by AM Commute

February 23rd, 2014 at 6:48 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data coming in indicates that the light snow may be over before the Monday morning commute even starts.  We will still get a few isolated rain showers between now and midnight.  From midnight to 4 or 5AM, the rain will change to snow, but it may stay in a rain/snow mix form at the coast.  Although we can’t rule out a few heavy bursts of snow, even these look like they will be the exception rather than the rule.  Most of the snow will be light and it will also have trouble sticking.  That is why we are sticking with our small accumulation forecast.

The Monday morning commute will not be severely impacted, but use caution because there will be a potential of some slick surfaces and black ice.  I have posted a timeline and accumulation forecast below.  The amounts have not changed since this morning, the timing has shifted slightly earlier.  -Pete Mangione

Time_Line_Sun_Night

 

 

Blog_Snow_Accum


Sunday Overnight into Monday Morning Snow: An Update

February 23rd, 2014 at 8:55 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After a nice end to the weekend with more melting going on, here is what we are looking at for the rain/snow which will arrive tonight into early Monday morning:

5PM to 12AM: Some scattered rain showers are possible, but much of this time should be rain free.

12AM to 3AM: This is the time when most of the showers will arrive.  Showers will also start to mix with snow, but the snow not expected to stick at this point.

3AM to 7AM: Light snow, with a few heavy bursts of snow possible…especially towards the southeastern shore of Rhode Island into southern Massachusetts.  A dusting to an inch of snow will be on the ground by around 7AM.  Early morning commuters (those that leave before 7AM) may see slower conditions because of slick or snow coated roads.

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7AM to 10AM: The snow should turn off by this point. Later commuters (those that leave between 7AM-9AM) will see less of an impact.  Of course, slick or icy roads will be a concern even after the snow has stopped…so use caution on the untreated surfaces.

How Much Snow?

By early Monday morning, expect a dusting to 1″ of snow.  There could be some slightly highers amounts into southern Massachusetts (up to 2″).  We will be looking at more data through out the day and will let you know if these amounts need to be adjusted.  Have a good Sunday! -Pete Mangione

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Late Sunday Night into early Monday AM Snow

February 22nd, 2014 at 10:49 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data coming in late Saturday night supports a light snow accumulation late Sunday night into early Monday morning.  I think the bulk of this would come down from about 3AM to 7AM Monday morning.  While most of the snow will be light, there could be a few heavy bursts; so early morning commuters (5AM-7AM) could see some slow downs.  We will keep you posted as new information comes in.  Here is my early call on accumulations….these are subject to change as new data comes in on Sunday. -Pete Mangione

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From Black Ice, to Melting, to a Little More Snow

February 22nd, 2014 at 8:29 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Black ice was widespread this morning.  We had  a lot of rain and snow-melt yesterday, and then most temperatures went below freezing overnight.  That’s a recipe for black ice and dangerous roads.  I actually slid a little bit as I tried to make a turn on my way to work.   Here is a look at low temperatures from this morning.  Remember, the numbers that you see below are AIR temperatures…even when air temperatures are above freezing you can still have PAVEMENT temperatures which are below freezing.

 

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Fortunately, this threat will go away by the late morning and afternoon as temperatures go into the 40s.  We will do a lot of melting today! However, we will have to watch the roads into early Sunday morning as some black ice may return.

There is a chance of some afternoon rain showers on Sunday afternoon, and then some light snow late Sunday night into early Monday morning.  Right now, it looks like about a dusting to an inch of snow is possible with minimal impact on the Monday morning commute.  We will keep you updated on any changes.  Have a great weekend! -Pete Mangione

 

 


Tuesday “Snow Event”

February 16th, 2014 at 11:39 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Here are a few quick thoughts for the snow on the way Tuesday.  It’s likely that we will get at least some snow, but amounts are still very much in question.

What Does The Storm Having Going Against It?

It’s a fast mover, so the snow that falls won’t have very long to pile up.  It’s likely that there would only be a few hours where the snow would be coming down steady enough to stick.  In addition, surface temperatures may creep above freezing at some points.  This would mean either some mixing to rain or snow that has a hard time sticking.

What Does The Storm Have Going for It?

A recent computer model brought in the storm a little stronger than its previous run.  This suggests that amounts could be a little higher than anticipated.  However, I would like to see more support from additional computer models before I completely buy into this “stronger” scenario.  TJ Del Santo will have a look at some more data early Monday morning to get a better read on our expected accumulations.

Below is my accumulation forecast.  I expect that most of this would fall from late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.  Either the morning or evening commute could be affected, but there is chance that the worst occurs in between the commutes (that would actually be a good thing).  The following graphic will likely have to be tweaked over the next 24 hours.    -Pete Mangione

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The Big Three Weather Headlines Today

February 16th, 2014 at 9:47 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

1)  Some side roads will still be icy and snow-packed this morning.  The road conditions will vary depending on where you are.  Most of the highways look like they are in good shape, but some of the side roads could be slippery…especially in hilly locations.  Some new snowfall reports came in overnight, I have posted them at the end of this blog.  Notice New Bedford made it up to 10 inches!

2) A very cold night is on the way with lows ranging from the single digits to upper teens.  Even though it won’t be that windy, even small breezes could put wind chills near 0.   Also, a few of the computers are spitting out some flurries tonight along the coast.  I am not buying into this just yet but it’s something I will be watching today.

3) Tuesday has a POTENTIAL of producing snow accumulations.  A lot will depend on the speed and strength of the storm as it moves in.  A faster and weaker system would produce snow that is too light to stick, or a snow/rain mix that would also not stick.  A storm that strengthens just little bit would be enough to produce light to moderate accumulations.  At this point, it does look like we will get SOMETHING for Tuesday, we just need to determine how significant that SOMETHING is.

Have a good day! -Pete Mangione

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Saturday Storm Update

February 15th, 2014 at 9:00 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Some new information came in overnight into early this morning.  Because the track of the storm got slightly closer, we slightly increased our expected snowfall amounts.  Here is an updated timeline:

Now – 3PM: Light to moderate snow moves in…..a dusting to an inch is possible.

3PM – 11PM: This is the brunt of the storm.  Moderate to heavy snow will be moving through…the heavier bands of snow could produce snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour and some thunder-snow is even possible.  The heavy bands of snow will be more frequent for points east of Providence, and less frequent in western Rhode Island.  Reduced visibilities, gusty winds, and quickly snow covered roads will make travel will difficult during this time, especially from Providence and points east.  Winds will gust from 40 to 50 mph for most of our area, but gusts of up to 60 mph are possible from New Bedford out towards Cape Cod.  Isolated power outages are possible everywhere, but widespread outages are possible for eastern Bristol County Mass, Plymouth County Mass, and Cape Cod.

11PM – 6AM: Skies will clear but the winds will continue to crank with gusts between 40-50 mph.  Icy roads could be an issue Sunday morning on any untreated surfaces.

Here is an updated snow accumulation map.  Have a good day! -Pete Mangione

 

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Thursday Afternoon Update

February 13th, 2014 at 5:17 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Updated at 1:00 PM

Some recent reports showing some amounts that were already on the ground as of 1PM….

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 We have seen some huge flakes today! Here is a picture from our station in East Providence around noon.

 

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Now to 2PM: This is when the heaviest of the snow will be falling.  Snowfall rates of over 2 inches per hour are possible. Some of the snow bursts will drop visibility quickly.   If you are looking to avoid the worst of the storm, this a good time to stay off the roads.  The coast will change to rain during this time-frame…but that change will take longer to make it to inland areas.

2PM to 7PM:  Snow will change to rain across most of our area.  Even in areas that receive lower accumulations, the rain on top of the snow will create a mess on the roads and sidewalks.   Some street flooding is also possible as drains may be clogged by snow and ice.  Areas north and west of I-95 will stay more of a snow/sleet mix, although some brief periods of rain are possible.  Winds will also be very strong, gusting to 40-50 mph at the coast.  Power outages will be a concern because the snow that does fall will by heavy and wet; when you combine this with gusty winds it can often bring down trees and power lines.

TONIGHT: Rain will continue making for a messy evening commute.  Snow/sleet will continue off and on north and west of Providence.  We will change back over to snow overnight into early Friday morning, additional accumulations will be minimal.

Here is our updated accumulation map.  Also, please keep reading below for an update on how the winds will affect the waves and the surf today.

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Large Waves and Possible Splash-Over This Evening:

Winds will gust 40-50 mph at the coast today leading to some big waves and large surf.  We will keep an eye on the high tide this evening as winds will still be busy and there is a possibility of some minor splash-over.  We were already noticing some big waves on our Narragansett camera during high tide earlier this morning.

I have posted a forecast below which was taking from the National Weather Service website; I believe that this is an automated forecast and it is taken from an “experimental page” on the website.  Therefore, we don’t want to take it too literally, but it serves as a good guide.  This forecast is for this evening’s high tide, which will occur shortly below 7PM.

Surge: 1.3′
Waves: 8′
Total Water Level: 4.3′
Flood Cat: NONE

Time of High Tide:
07 PM LST (Approximate)

Notice how flooding is NOT being forecast.  However, the waves will be large with rough surf, so some minor splash-over is still a possibility.  We will keep you posted. -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Sunday Morning Update: SLIGHT Shift in Timing

February 9th, 2014 at 8:56 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data coming in this morning supports no major changes to the forecast.  The slight change I have made is to bring in the snow a few hours earlier than we had in the forecast yesterday.  This isn’t great news if you have plans to be on the road tonight, but it IS good news for the Monday morning commute.  Basically, this earlier arrival time increases the confidence that the snow will be turned off by the time you are heading to work on Monday.  Here is an updated timeline:

4PM to 8PM: Light snow moves in from west to east.  Travel will be OK, but you may have to take it slow in spots as flakes will tend to stick fairly easily on untreated surfaces.

8PM to 12AM: Light snow continues.  Some occasional moderates bands of snow will move through as well; these moderates bands could temporarily drop visibility and put a quick coating of snow on the roads.  However, the majority of the time, travel should be OK….just be prepared to take it a little slower than normal.

Monday 12AM to 3AM: Lingering spotty snow showers with temperatures in the teens and low 20s.

Monday 5AM to 9AM: Cold with patches of ice and snow on the roads.  However, it should no longer be snowing, so I am not anticipating any major slow-downs for the morning commute.

I am  re-posting the accumulation map below…no big changes to this over the past few days. Of course, you will want to stay tuned for any changes! -Pete Mangione

 

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