petemangione

Still A Rip Current Threat Today, but Waters Gradually Calm

August 29th, 2014 at 6:06 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

UPDATED AT 8:30AM

HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED, BUT STILL DECENT WAVES

Good morning.  The latest observations show swells on the south coast are have now gone down to about 3-5 feet.  That is lower than yesterday, but it is still high enough to pose a danger.  The high surf advisory has expired; the surf should continue to decrease into the afternoon.

THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY

Even when the surf is no longer a threat, dangerous rip currents will be a risk.  These can sometimes be more dangerous than the high surf because it is often hard to see the rip currents.

IMPROVING THIS WEEKEND

By Saturday and Sunday, the surf should no longer be an issue but we will still have to monitor the rip current risk.  The risk will likely be lower as waters continue to calm, but make sure to check back with us through out the weekend.  It often takes a while for the rip current risk to completely go away. -Pete Mangione


Cristobal Will Bring Rip Currents, Possibly Late Wednesday

August 26th, 2014 at 7:12 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of Tuesday evening, Cristobal is a Category One hurricane with winds of 75 mph.  Here is the latest track:

cristrewrewrewrew

This storm will stay far away, so we don’t have to worry about it bringing bad weather.  However, it will bring rip currents Thursday into the weekend.  Some of these rips may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon.  Please listen to lifeguards at the beach for instructions about where it is safe to swim. -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Cristobal Could Affect Waters, but not Land

August 24th, 2014 at 7:35 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of Sunday evening Tropical Storm Cristobal had winds of 46 mph and was moving to the north at 7 mph.  There is a “dip” in the jet stream that seems to be interacting with the storm.   That is likely the reason it does not have that classic circular shape yet.  However, as the dip in the jet stream moves away, it’s likely that Cristobal will become better organized and turn into a hurricane.  However, this may not happen for several days.

Here is the Sunday evening track from the National Hurricane Center:

TSCrrsttt

 

There are 2 important things to note.  First, notice how the red, hollow tropical storm graphic becomes a “filled in” hurricane graphic from Tuesday into Wednesday.  This makes sense given that the above mentioned “dip” in the jet stream should be gone that point.  Tropical systems don’t like dips in the jet stream, so once this moves away Cristobal will have a change to organize.

The second thing to note the sharp bend to the right on Thursday.  There is actually a second “dip” in the jet stream that will bring in a cold front around this time.  This should help push Cristobal out to sea and keep it well offshore from southern New England.  However, rip currents are possible around the end of the week into Labor Day weekend.  Even if the storm is several hundred miles away, it can still affect our waters if it is strong enough.  The front itself may give us some isolated showers or thunderstorms, but we will take that over a hit from Cristobal!

Crish_Two

The weather for the Friday and Saturday actually looks nice and comfortable with highs in the upper 70s and low humidity.  Some showers are possible Sunday from a another wave of low pressure that may ride in from the west.

Obviously, interactions in the atmosphere between fronts and tropical systems are complex so we need to continue to watch this for any changes in the path.  Have a good night and enjoy the warmer temperatures this week! -Pete Mangione


Tropical Storm Cristobal: What does it mean for us?

August 24th, 2014 at 9:15 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of Sunday morning Tropical Storm Cristobal had winds of 45 mph and was approaching parts of the Bahamas.  Conditions will be favorable for the storm to strengthen over the next few days, this could make it either a stronger tropical storm or a hurricane.

There is still a lot of uncertainty in the track of the storm.  There is a chance it could drift into the Florida or the North/South Carolina coast.  The most likely scenario keeps it near the Florida and Carolina coast but never brings it onto land.  A bend back to the northeast is then expected mid-week.  Here is the updated track from the National Hurricane Center:

Crist_OneBlog

Notice that in the above track, the storm does not make it that close to southern New England.  However, we can’t rely on just one solution.  We need to account for some variation from this track; either closer or further away from southern New England.  IF the storm tries to get near us towards the end of the week, a cold front may help push it away. This front will bring the chance of showers.

Crish_Two

Based on all of the above, it is likely that Cristobal stays well offshore from southern New England.  That being said, some dangerous rip currents are possible as we head into the start of the Labor Day Weekend.  However, the weather itself looks OK.  We will continue to bring you more updates, enjoy the nice Sunday! -Pete Mangione

Crist_3

 

 


Tropical Storm Cristobal Forms

August 23rd, 2014 at 6:56 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Updated at 7AM On Sunday

Tropical Storm Cristobal is now here.  Winds are sustained at 45 mph.  IF the storm makes it offshore from New England, we are NOT expecting a landfall.  The storm may give us some rip currents, more information is below….

There are several different scenarios involving this tropical storm.  One scenario brings the storms into the Gulf of Mexico, another scenario brings it into Florida or North/ South Carolina.    The most likely scenario (and most agreed upon by the computer models) brings it into the northwest initially, but then bends it back out to sea as shown below.

CORRECTBLOG

 

IF the above scenario were to occur, it would likely be during the end of next week as a tropical storm or hurricane.  A front will likely be moving in from the northwest at the same time; this would help push the storm out to sea (sometimes fronts can be good!). The front could bring a few showers, but mostly dry weather is expected during this time.

That being said, we would still likely get some rip currents right before or during Labor Day Weekend.  Stay tuned as we need to see what happens with this storm over the next 48 hours to get a better idea of the path.  -Pete Mangione

 

 


Watching a Potential Tropical System Next Week

August 23rd, 2014 at 7:44 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

There is a disturbance near the Bahamas which has a good chance of turning into a tropical system over the next couple of days.  At this point, the majority of our computer models bring the storm offshore from the US east coast into the middle/end of next week.  There is no immediate threat to our area right now, but we could be looking at some rough surf and rip currents next week.

blogdasfdasfdasfas

 

 

WHY A COLD FRONT MAY BE A GOOD THING NEXT WEEK

A great way to keep hurricanes and tropical systems AWAY from New England is to bring in some kind of weather disturbance from the west.  There is a pretty good chance that, next week, a cold front will be approaching from the northwest at the same time that the tropical system is lurking in the Atlantic.   This front would act to keep the storm at sea…although some high surf may be able to make it to our shore.

We obviously need to look at more data to get a better handle on this potential tropical system.  We will bring you updates through out the weekend and into next week.  -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Sunday Update: A Few Showers, Dry Time Too

August 17th, 2014 at 9:15 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good morning! When I was on the air this morning, there were a few showers passing through around 6AM.  But after that, we cleared to partly cloudy skies and we ended up with a decent morning.  That being said, a front still has to clear the area this afternoon, so the chance of a shower or thunderstorms will still be with us.  Overall, there will be more dry time than shower time.  Sun will mix with clouds off and on today….we should get a pretty good sunset as dry winds from the west should help clear out our skies.  I will leave you with a breakdown of the shower threat.  Have a good Sunday! -Pete Mangione

Shower_Graph_Feat


Wild Wednesday: Morning Recap, Afternoon Outlook

August 13th, 2014 at 3:10 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heavy rain moved in this morning creating problems on many of our roads.  The heaviest of the rain ran along and to the west of I-95.  There were many reports of street flooding, especially in Cranston, Coventry, and Providence.  Here are a few pictures sent via our ReportIt feature.

CoventryFloodingBlog

 Coventry Flooding: Courtesy Shannon Moore

 

 

CranstonFloodingPic

Cranston Flooding

 

Our rainfall amounts ranged from about 1 to 4.5 inches.  Here are some totals as of Wednesday afternoon:

 

NewRainBlog

I put in the Islip (Long Island, NY)  number because it is such an incredible amount of rain! The Long Island Expressway was not a good place to be this morning!

 

WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING?

While the rain won’t be nearly as steady and as widespread as this morning, there will still be a threat of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.  A few of the storms could be strong with a small chance of damaging wind.  The threat of showers and rain should be gone by midnight (possibly a few hours sooner).

Our weather improves tomorrow and Friday with low humidity and comfortable temperatures. Have a good afternoon and evening! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 


Heavy Rain, Flash Flood Threat This Morning

August 13th, 2014 at 9:35 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heavy rain has moved into a good part of our viewing area.  A Flash Flood Warning is in place for much of Providence and Kent County.  These warning are in effect until 1:15 this afternoon.

I just looked at the observations at TF Green airport….between 8AM and 9AM 0.91 inches of rain fell, that is almost an inch per hour.

Here are some initial reports coming in courtesy of SKYWARN from the National Weather Service:

East Lyme, CT: 3.90″

Montville, CT: 4.84″

Canterbury, CT: 2.94″

Willimantic, CT: 2.04″

Cranston, RI: 1.56″

East Lyme, CT: 4.15″

Hebron, CT: 2.05″

Hampton, CT: 2.05″

Cranston, RI: 1.61″

 

Rainfall Reports (1″ or more):

Providence, RI: 1.38″

Coventry, RI:: 1.24″

 

Flood Reports:

924 AM: Cranston, RI: Cranston Street between Batcheller Avenue and Cavalry Street closed due to the flooding

 

Once we get into this afternoon, there will still be a threat of showers and downpours but there will likely be some lulls in the rain as well.  The Flash Flood Watch extends through this evening to account for the “potential” of additional flash flooding, even though it will not be raining the entire time.

Please do NOT drive through flooded intersections! -Pete Mangione

 


Watching Wednesday for Strong Storms

August 10th, 2014 at 9:25 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

There is a threat of some severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.  Here is a breakdown of what we know, and what we need to fine tune:

WHAT WE KNOW

-A humid air mass will move in during the middle of the week.

-Low pressure, series of fronts , and an active jet stream will also move in during the same time period.

-When you combine the above ingredients, severe weather becomes a possibility.

-Torrential downpours, lightning, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes are possible.

 

WHAT WE NEED TO FINE TUNE:

-How well do the storm ingredients come together? This will make the difference between a very active weather day and a day with just a few non-severe thunderstorms and rain showers.

-What is the timing? It looks like there is a threat of severe weather anytime from early Wednesday morning to Wednesday evening.  As we get closer to Wednesday, we should be able to determine which commute (morning or evening) is at a higher risk of being affected.

STAY TUNED THIS WEEK

Tony, Michelle, TJ, and I will be looking at more data this week.  Tune in for our on-air and online coverage to get more specifics.   Have a good week! -Pete Mangione

BlogWed

 

 

 


Thursday Evening Update: Hail and unconfirmed report of a water spout

August 7th, 2014 at 4:38 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Update at 6:30PM

During our newscast, Tony and I noticed some possible rotation in a storm just offhsore from Little Compton, RI.  Here is snapshot from the RADAR….

RAD_TORN

That same thunderstorm moved to the southeast and we are now getting unconfirmed reports of a water spout just a few miles offshore from Martha’s Vineyard.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
603 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     WATER SPOUT      10 NW AQUINNAH          41.44N  70.95W
08/07/2014                   ANZ234             MA   AIRPLANE PILOT

            PILOT REPORTS WATERSPOUT 10 MILES NW OF MARTHAS
            VINEYARD IN RI SOUND

Stay tuned…we will continue to update you on this.

We have also been tracking isolated but strong thunderstorms this afternoon.  Not everyone is getting these storms, but some cities and town have been hit by hail.  This picture of hail is from Chepachet courtesy of TeriLyn Colaluca.

Chepachet Hail  - Terilyn

 

There were multiple reports of hail; I saw one from Middetown, RI with 1 inch hail!

There is a very cold pool of air sitting high overhead, and that will act as our trigger for the storms through early this evening.  The activity should start to wind down by around 7PM.  We will be on t he air from 5 to 6:30 on WPRI, and from 6:30 to 7 on FOX Providence with the latest information.  -Pete Mangione


Sunday Showers, but not as Heavy

August 3rd, 2014 at 9:08 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Some more showers to get through today, but overall, not as much rain as what we had on Saturday.  This morning, everyone has a good chance of getting showers.  They will be off/on and light for the most part (although anytime you have tropical moisture involved, you can’t completely rule out a quick downpour).

The best chance of showers arrives later morning into the early afternoon, and then the chance drops into the late afternoon.  Note the graph below:

Blog_One

As shown above, the chance of showers drops in the afternoon, but locations to the south and east of I-95 may hang onto the showers a bit longer.  Note the map below:

Sunday_Aft_Bloggggggggggg

 

If you are headed out today, bring the rain jacket or umbrella.  While it won’t be raining the entire time, some showers will still be passing through.  There may be a few slivers of sun late today, especially for western Rhode Island.  Have a good day! -Pete Mangione

 

 


Our Weekend Outlook…Saturday Update

August 2nd, 2014 at 8:32 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Not a very good day for outdoor activities with showers moving through.  The showers look like they will be at the steadiest from late morning into the mid afternoon.  A few showers could be heavy with the threat of isolated downpours and thunderstorms.

RADAR_BloG

By the late  afternoon and night, there are signs that the steadiest of showers will shift to the south and east out towards Cape Cod.  This would leave the vast majority of our viewing area getting light and less frequent rain showers.

 SUNDAY: The majority of our computer models are keeping the core of moisture offshore for Sunday, giving us just some occasional showers.  However, we need to watch this forecast carefully.  Tropical moisture can be very tricky to forecast, and any little change in the track of the moisture could translate to big changes to the Sunday forecast.  IF the track of the storm were to shift west slightly,  areas south and east of I-95 have the best chance of seeing more frequent showers.

SundayCatets

 

BERTHA: As of Saturday morning, Bertha is still a tropical storm with winds of 50 mph.  The track from the National Hurricane Center still keeps it offshore form the mainland US into early next week.  Have a good day! -Pete Mangione

Hurrrrr

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Weekend Update

August 1st, 2014 at 8:03 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Updated Friday at 12:30PM

The chance for showers will increase as we head into the weekend.  The threat of showers (and even a few downpours) will be with us the entire weekend.  It is unlikely that it rains for the entire weekend, so if you are planning outdoor activities, be aware of the potential for interruptions.   Best chance of some heavy downpours? That may actually hold off until very early Sunday morning.

Rain_Tweet_f

 

However, the timing could still change so stay tuned as we look at more data through out the weekend.  I am optimistically putting in some sun for Sunday afternoon, but there is a risk that showers and downpours will still be there.

Tropical Storm Bertha

As of early afternoon, Bertha is a tropical storm with winds of 50 mph.  She will move to the northwest over the next several days, and then likely sit somewhere offshore from the mainland US by early next week.

150722W5_NL_sm

By next week, the forecast becomes very uncertain, so we will need to watch this system carefully.  As of now, it is not a threat to the mainland US.  -Pete Mangione


Some Dry Time, but Strong T-Storms Still Possible

July 28th, 2014 at 5:06 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Updated at 9:30 AM:

We are currently in a lull as the downpours from this morning have moved up to our north.  However, if we can sneak in a little sun today…a few more showers and thunderstorms could fire up.  So while there is plenty of dry time, we can’t completely rule out a severe threat.

REST OF MORNING: Plenty of dry time with a little hazy sun possible.  There will be a chance of an isolated shower or strong thunderstorm.

FLASH FLOODING THREAT: Low

WIND DAMAGE THREAT: Low

 

AFTERNOON: Some breaks of sun are possible, but this could actually fire up a few additional showers and thunderstorms.

FLASH FLOODING THREAT: Low

WIND DAMAGE THREAT: Low to Moderate

 

Summary: Even though it won’t be raining the entire day, we need to be on alert for the potential of showers and thunderstorms for the entire day.  There is a SLIGHT risk of an isolated tornado.

Stay tuned and we will keep you updated! -Pete Mangione

 

 


A Few Strong Storms Possible Today, Better Chance Monday

July 27th, 2014 at 8:14 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Updated at 2:00 PM

If we get a little sun late this afternoon and early evening, that would be our best shot to get some strong thunderstorms.  I would say the chance of those storms turning severe is low, but it is still a possibility.    After that, the next decent chance of severe weather would be overnight into Monday morning.   Please read below for more information.

 

DGraphiBlgggggg

Here is a breakdown of the severe storm threat:

Now to 8PM: While there will be plenty of dry time during this period, there is a slight chance of severe storms (especially if we can sneak in some sun to heat up the atmosphere).   Inland areas have the best chance (even though it’s a small chance) of getting flash flooding and wind damage, the coast has as a much smaller chance.

8PM to 12AM: The storm threat will still be there, but there will likely be plenty of lulls in the action.

12AM Monday to Monday Noon: The chance of some strong thunderstorms increases, with flash flooding being the biggest threat.

Please stay tuned through out the afternoon, we will continue to update this blog.

-Pete Mangione

 


Cool Shot of Air Next Week…Does it Affect New England?

July 23rd, 2014 at 5:04 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

You may have already heard about the cool air moving in next week.  It is likely that much of the mid-west, northern plains, and even parts of the northeast will be affected by this cool plunge.  However, for our viewing area here in southern New England, the cool-down might not be quite as extreme.

As projected by the European model, here is a look at surface temperatures next Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Graphic_Blog

Image Courtesy accuweather.com

Note the temperatures in the 50s and 60s around the Great Lakes region. That’s pretty cool stuff for a summer afternoon in that part of the country.  Also note the 70s showing up for Southern New England.  Because of the time zone difference, this actually represents Tuesday evening on the east coast…so 70s on the east coast is really not that unusual.

So why will this affect out neighbors to the west more than us? A lot of it has to do with what is going on high up in the atmosphere.  As projected by the European model, here is what is going on at 500 millibars next Tuesday afternoon/evening. (The height of 500 millibars varies by temperature, but it averages several miles above the surface of the earth).

Graphic_Blog_2

Image Courtesy accuweather.com

The 500mb chart is usually a great way to show large scale weather patterns.  If you think of the chart like a mountain range, the ridges often represent the warmer weather and the dips often represent the cooler weather.  Notice the major dip from Canada all the way down into the Tennessee Valley…but also notice that New England is more on the edge of the dip than the center of the dip.  This suggests that the cold plunge will be more of a “glancing blow” than a direct hit for southern New England.

That being said, we are still almost a week away from the event, and the computer models can sometimes underestimate these cool air invasions.  We will keep you posted! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Periods of Heavy Rain, Strong T-Storms Monday into Wednesday

July 13th, 2014 at 8:13 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data coming in continues to support the threat of showers and strong thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday.  One change I am noticing is the tendency for the front to slow down; this translates to the showers lasting longer into Wednesday afternoon, rather than wrapping up in the morning.

MONDAY: Periods of showers and strong thunderstorms will move through.  This still does NOT look like a washout, but Tony will look at more data Sunday night to see if this changes.

*RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING: MODERATE

*RISK OF DAMAGING WIND: LOW TO MODERATE (Highest for northern and western Rhode Island)

 

TUESDAY: Another humid day with the chance of showers and strong thunderstorms.  The showers and thunderstorms look like they will be more frequent than on Monday, especially by the afternoon.  The heaviest of the rain may fall Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

*RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING: MODERATE TO HIGH

*RISK OF DAMAGING WIND: LOW TO MODERATE

 

WEDNESDAY: This axis of heaviest rainfall looks like it pulls through on Wednesday morning; therefore the Wednesday morning commute could be a rough one.  As mentioned above, the front responsible for the showers and T-storms looks like it will take its time moving through southern New England.  Therefore, some showers and thunderstorms are still possible through out the afternoon.

*RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING: MODERATE TO HIGH

*RISK OF DAMAGING WIND: LOW TO MODERATE

blograin

 

The timing on all of this could change, so stay tuned for adjustments.  Tony will have another look at the data soon. Have a good Sunday! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 


Could be Wet and Wild for First Part of Work Week

July 12th, 2014 at 6:35 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New information continues to come in regarding the showers and thunderstorms for the first part of the work week; this new information is very consistent with previou0s data… it keeps the timing from Monday until about Wednesday morning.

Monday: There will be periods of showers and thunderstorms; some of which could be quite strong bringing heavy downpours and damaging winds.  The difficult part of this forecast is determining whether Monday will be a washout or not.  For now, I will say no washout with a decent amount of dry time mixed in with the rain.  However, one of our computer models is more aggressive and stalls a boundary right over southern New England.  I would like to look at more data before making a final call about whether Monday is a “watch a movie” type of day.

TUESDAY: This looks like the best chance for a washout with periods of showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain.  Just like Monday, a few of these storms will have the potential of damaging winds and flash flooding.

WEDNESDAY: Showers and thunderstorms are likely at least through the early morning, and then things should gradually improve during the afternoon.  It is THIS part of the forecast that is subject to the most change; if the front speeds up by a few hours, Wednesday afternoon could be a nice day.  If the front slows down by a few hours, Wednesday could end up a washout.

We will keep fine tuning the timing and details over the next few days. -Pete Mangione

 

 


Friday rain caused a lot of problems, but it wasn’t all bad

July 5th, 2014 at 8:24 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We never want to see a situation like we did in New Bedford with almost 8 inches of rain.  That is WAY too much rain at one time.   A lot of our viewing area was a little more fortunate, with rainfall generally between 2 and 4.5 inches.  (That’s still a lot in one day!)

So what is the silver lining in the Friday rain? It did bring some much needed rainfall to a lot of lawns and gardens, which really needed it.  The graphic below uses rainfall since June 1 at TF Green Airport.  Notice how we turned a deficit into a surplus! -Pete Mangione

Pete_Blog_Water


Flash Floods, Arthur, and the rest of the 4th

July 4th, 2014 at 1:29 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The impacts of Arthur really started to get going this afternoon….a Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Providence, Warwick, Cranston, and for portions of Kent, Washington, and Providence County.  Here was the scene on RADAR earlier.

radafdafdasfdas

Arthur is still a category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph.  You can see it has started to merge with the front moving over our area.

tropBlgo222222

Arthur will remain offshore and make his closest pass late tonight….he will give us some heavy rain before that happens.  Look for showers and downpours to continue until 9 or 10PM.   If he speeds up, we may be able to get them out of here a little sooner.  It may get windy tonight with gusts around 3o mph, so some isolated wind damage is possible.  But our main threat will be street flooding, please don’t drive through flooded roads.  More updates soon. -Pete Mangione

 

 


Arthur Weakens a Little, Flash Flood Watch Remains

July 4th, 2014 at 9:20 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Arthur has weakened a little (to a Category 1), his winds are down to 90 mph and he is moving northeast at 21 mph.  The storm is still expected to stay offshore during its closest pass tonight.

Blog_GoGoGog

 

While we will get high surf and rip currents here in Rhode Island and Bristol County Mass, the biggest impacts will come in the form of rain.  In fact, we have already seen some downpours and thunderstorms this morning.  Here is a snapshot from 9AM.

fdasfdasfdasfa

A Flash Flood Watch starts at noon and goes through tonight.  1-3 inches possible with higher isolated amounts. Some localized street flooding is possible.  Please turn around if you see any flooded roads…..most people are in their cars when they get in trouble during flash floods. More updates later this morning. -Pete Mangione

 

 


Primary Arthur Impacts on Land will be Rain

July 4th, 2014 at 7:34 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New update from National Hurricane Center. Arthur still a Cat 2 hurricane with winds 100 mph.  It has picked up speed as expected and is now moving to the northeast at 23 mph.  While it will get gusty tonight, Arthur’s impacts will be primarily rain.  1 to 3 inches of rain is possible with some higher isolated amounts.  That is why a Flash Flood Watch goes into effect at noon and goes through tonight. More updates soon.  -Pete Mangione

Rain_Flash_Flood_Blog


Morning Update: Arthur Still Cat 2

July 4th, 2014 at 4:29 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of early this morning, Arthur is a Category 2 Hurricane with winds of 100 mph.   It is moving to the northeast at 22 mph.  After sweeping over the outer banks of North Carolina, Arthur will move back into the ocean.  As this happens, Arthur may increase in strength a little, but the overall trend will be to weaken by the time he makes his closest pass to southern New England.  That being said, he likely still be a Category 1 hurricane as he makes his closest pass tonight.

Impacts:

-Rain with some heavy downpours, especially from the afternoon into the evening.  The morning may end up with a decent amount of rain-free time.  Localized street flooding is possible in isolated areas by afternoon and evening.

-High surf and dangerous rip currents, especially out into Cape Cod.  The rip currents may last into Saturday and Sunday as well.

-Gusty winds tonight (25-35 mph).  Some isolated wind damage is possible, but keep in mind that these wind speeds are not that uncommon here in southern New England.

 


Tropical Storm Warning for Cape, Rain on way for 4th

July 3rd, 2014 at 7:13 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The evening update from the National Hurricane Center still shows Hurricane Arthur with winds of 90 mph, movement to the northeast at 13 mph.  The center is still expected to miss us offshore, but the forecast now has the path close enough for a Tropical Storm Warning to be issued for Cape Cod and the surrounding waters.

Blog_Thurs_Art_1

This means that it will be especially dangerous for boaters out toward the Cape and Islands.  It won’t be quite as bad across the Rhode Island shore, but some high surf and dangerous rip currents are likely late Friday into Saturday (possibly in Sunday as well).

As Arthur makes his closest pass late Friday night, winds will pick up.  Damaging winds should be confined to the outer Cape, with Rhode Island and most of Bristol County Mass getting winds that are not quite as strong.

Blog_Two_Arrthhh

 

Thunderstorms and showers are possible through Friday morning, but the heaviest of the rain looks to be Friday afternoon into early Friday evening.  This might leave a little hope for the 4th of July Parade in Bristol (at least the first part of it).  There will likely be some showers and downpours, but we will may get some breaks as well.

We will continue to update you through out the weekend. -Pete Mangione

 


Arthur, 4th of July, and the Weekend

July 3rd, 2014 at 2:49 pm by under General Talk

This will be a very brief update.  The first afternoon data just came in from the National Hurricane Center.  Here are the stats:

2PM: Winds 90 mph (Category 1 Hurricane)
NNE 12 mph

The storm is just offshore from South Carolina.  The new path still takes it offshore of southern New England, but close enough to create dangerous rip currents and high surf into the weekend.  As for tropical storm force winds, that should stay well east of Rhode Island, but could happen on Nantucket and on portions of the out Cape.

A front that sweeps just ahead of Arthur (and grabs some of its moisture) will bring some heavy rain for the 4th of July, especially for the afternoon.  Localized street flooding will be the primary concern.

In the meantime, some occasional strong T-storms are possible this afternoon and evening.  However, much of the time will be rain-free.  More updates coming this evening. -Pete Mangione

 


Arthur still looks like a miss, but he will affect our weather

July 1st, 2014 at 7:38 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of Tuesday evening, Tropical Storm Arthur had winds of 52 mph and was moving slowly to the northwest.  Over the next couple of days, Arthur should continue to get stronger and pick up some speed making a potential landfall on the North Carolina coast by Friday morning. At this point, Arthur will likely be a Category 1 hurricane.  The next stop would be offshore from southern New England; its closest pass would likely be Friday night or early Saturday morning.  At this point, it would likely be just barely a Category 1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm. Here is the Tuesday evening updated track:

Blog_Tues_Night_Track

The center line is the forecast track of the storm, the yellow represents the “cone of uncertainty”.  That means that the storm has a chance of making landfall anywhere in the yellow, but the chance for southern New England is still quite low. While we are not forecasting Arthur to hit us directly, the track could bend a little more to the west which would translate to a more serious situation for us.  That is why it’s important to stay tuned to future forecasts for changes.

If our current forecast holds, land impacts would be minimal.  However, high surf and dangerous rip currents will likely affect mariners and beach goers.

There is a front just ahead of Arthur that WILL likely impact things on land.  As the front approaches, it will pull in some “Arthur influenced” tropical moisture.  This will move through Thursday and Friday.  Dangerous lightning and damaging winds are possible, but I am most concerned about the heavy downpours.  Some localized flooding is possible for both days.  The best chance for getting the heavy downpours would be Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

Blog_TuesNight_Graph

 

That leaves some hope for fireworks on the night of the 4th of July! The timing on all of this could change so please keep checking back for updates. -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 

 


Holiday Forecast And Tropical Update

June 30th, 2014 at 7:41 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Michelle and TJ have written great blogs so far about 4th of July thunderstorms and the potential of a tropical storm.  I will make this brief and give you some updated information:

Watching “Tropical Depression #1″

As of late Monday night, Tropical Depression #1 was spinning just offshore from Florida .  If this end up turning into a tropical storm, it would be Tropical Storm Arthur.

The computer models generally agree that it will meander near the Florida coast for the next couple of days, and then start to turn to the north.  The general track has it making landfill on the North Carolina coast, moving back over the water, and then making a close pass to southern New England Friday night into Saturday morning.

Blog_Two_Pete_Mon

 

If this forecast hold up, impacts on land would be minimal.  In fact, Friday night into Saturday would end up being nice with comfortable temperatures.  There would likely be some big waves and rough surf so boaters would have to use caution.  If it tracks more to the left, then impacts would be much greater here in southern New England.  Therefore, we still need to watch this carefully.

 

THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

As Michelle mentioned, a front will combine with lots of moisture to bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.  Heavy downpours and localized street flooding are possible, but it won’t be raining the entire time.  As of late Monday afternoon, the new European Model (a computer model that tends to do pretty well) run has the threat of showers moving out just before fireworks time on Friday night.

Blog_3_gogogogo

We don’t want to take each computer run too literally, but it’s a sign that at least the 4th of July is not a complete washout.  The timing of the shower/T-storm threat will likely shift a little bit in the coming days, so we need to look at more data before anything gets cancelled on the holiday. Stay tuned! -Pete Mangione

 


Top 5 reasons May seemed cool (Even though it wasn’t)

June 5th, 2014 at 3:17 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

When we look at March, April, and May at TF Green airport, the meteorological spring of 2014 was 1.6° below normal.  This probably comes as no surprise.  However, it is a little surprising (at least to me) that the month of May was slightly warmer (0.6°) than normal.  While I did not conduct a scientific pole, anecdotal evidence tells me that many of you would also be surprised by this.  My anecdotal evidence is based on emails, social media, and personal interactions with viewers.  These interactions have a common theme…..”When is the warm weather going to get here?!!!”

So why did May seem to be a cool month when, in reality, it was actually warmer than normal? There is no right or wrong answer to this, but I decided to offer up a few theories for this difference between perception and reality.

 TOP 5 REASONS WHY THE MONTH OF MAY “SEEMED” COOL

1) The Memorial Day Bust

I was the on-air meteorologist on Memorial Day for the morning and noon show. During the morning show, my forecast was “morning showers clearing to afternoon sunshine with highs in the 80s”.  I will be the first to admit that this forecast did not work out. The high temperature did hit 78°; so in terms of temperature it was actually an above normal day.  However, because rain and clouds lingered for much of the afternoon, the day ended up a being a disappointment and “cooler” than expected.

2) Cloudy, Foggy Mornings

Most of my weather shifts are on weekend mornings.  During this past May, it seemed that almost every Saturday and Sunday morning had thick fog in place!  It is quite common to get fog here in southern New England, but my memory of May 2014 is that it was especially foggy.  When a morning is gloomy and foggy, it can sometimes set a “cool” tone for the entire day, even if brighter skies move in during the afternoon.

 3) No Sizzling Beach Days

Usually in May, we get a decent stretch of days in the 80s and sometimes even a few 90s.  For 2014, we had zero days in the 90s and only 3 days in the 80s….not exactly hot beach weather.  Compare this to 2013 when May had 3 days in the 80s and 2 days in the 90s.  In 2012, May had zero days in the 90s but 6 days in the 80s.  Overall, despite being a little warmer than average, May of 2014 did not have many “hot” days….I think this helped lead to the perception that May was a cool month.

 4) Wednesday, May 28th Was a Ridiculously Chilly Day

The month of May was a mix of good and bad weather days, but the worst day came on Wednesday May 28th.  Do you remember that? In addition to the periods of rain, the high temperature only made it to 53° and gusty winds kept wind chills in the 40s for much of the day.  Not fun! Because that day came so late in the month, I think it is still stuck in our memories when we think back on May.

5) Chilly Ocean = Chilly Sea Breeze

I did a story during the middle of May about the first group of beaches opening for the season. At the time, Newport Harbor water temperatures were in the upper 40s.  By the end of the month, they made it into the 50s.   When winds come in off of the water (as they often do in the spring), it can have a dramatic cooling effect on the immediate coast.  Because official temperatures are kept at TF Green airport, they don’t always reflect the cooler temperature at our local beaches.

 

The list above contains my theories, so there is plenty of room for disagreement on this topic.  Here’s to some warmer beach days this summer! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Afternoon Better Than Morning

May 26th, 2014 at 11:35 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The showers have been hanging around longer than anticipated this morning, but the afternoon will be milder.  I trimmed back my high temperatures a little bit.  Partly sunny skies will move in during the afternoon, there is a chance of a brief shower or 2 in the early afternoon but overall still a mild day.  Here is an updated planner below…it’s still possible that areas north and west of Providence still get close to 80. -Pete Mangione

 

Afternoon_Futurecast_go