NOAA just issued their hurricane forecast and they are predicting another active season.

The forecast calls for a 70% chance of the following occurring.

Named Storms: 13 to 20  (Seasonal Average is 12)

Hurricanes: 7 to 11 (Seasonal Average is 6)

Major Hurricanes: 3 to 6 (Seasonal Average is 3)

Hurricanes feed off of warm ocean water, and indeed the ocean water in the tropical Atlantic is warmer than average.  In years that we are under the influence of El Nino, hurricane season is often relatively quiet.  This hurricane season, El Nino is not expected to be present which could also lead to the development of more hurricanes.  (Photo below courtesy NOAA)

 What does this mean locally for southern New England?

Obviously, a more active hurricane season increases the probabiliy that Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts would be hit by a hurricane or tropical storm.  But just because the probability increases doesn’t mean it will actually happen.  There are many hurricanes and tropical storms that form in the Atlantic and never make it to southern New England. 

In addition, the “Major Hurricance” forecast can be a little misleading.  “Major Hurricanes” are defined as being a category 3 or higher with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.   While major hurricanes can be devastating, a direct hit from a weaker hurricane can be much worse than a glancing blow or miss from a major hurricane.  Technically, Sandy was not even a hurricane when it made landfall in New Jersey.  But it certainly felt like a major storm for people living on the Rhode Island coast, and especially those in Westerly.  

The bottom line? It’s not always about the number and size of the storms.  The exact track is very important too.  Unfortunately, we don’t have the technology to predict the exact tracks of storms months in advance.  -Pete Mangione

A new report issued by NOAA looks back at how superstorm Sandy was forecast.  Specifically, it focuses on the accuracy of the forecast and the effectiveness of communicating this forecast to the public.  The report is quite lengthy, so I will just focus on a few key points.

What went right

Overall, the report found that the forecast of Sandy’s track and intensity was very accurate.  The report states: “Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) 2 day 6 and 7 forecasts were also highly accurate, giving the first indication that Sandy was a threat to the northeastern United States”.   Over 2 days before Sandy hit, the National Hurricane Center predicted significant storm surge for parts of the mid Atlantic and northeast.   In addition, the “left turn” that Sandy took back towards the United States was hinted at by several computer models almost a week before the storm struck.  Below is an image of Sandy’s track courtesy of NOAA’s report:

What needs improvement:   Although the report showed that most of the general public felt that Sandy’s forecast was accurate, it did mention the need for improvement in regards to the storm surge impacts.  Some coastal residents said they didn’t realize the storm surge would be as bad as it was, and felt the flooding happened faster than they anticipated.

The report suggests that people seem to respond better to impact forecasts rather than technical forecasts.  For instance, more time should be spent using clear and understandable language instructing people about how to protect life and property.  Along the same lines, less time should be spent explaining the technicalities of the storm (whether the storm is a hurricane, a tropical storm, or a nor’easter).

Below is a graphic that was issued by the National Weather Service as Sandy was approaching.   This was considered a patricularly effective graphic in getting accross the urgency of the situation without getting bogged down in technical details.  In the future, expect to see more graphics like this when a serious storm is approaching. -Pete Mangione

Here is another brief update on our water situation.  As Michelle mentioned in her previous post, we put a little dent in our water deficit yesterday.  Today, we put in a slightly bigger dent!  Here are how some of the numbers break down:

Rain Deficit Since March 1: 5.52 inches

Rain on Wednesday: 0.15″

Rain so Far Thursday (as of 3PM) : 0.33″

So we are not even done with Thursday yet, and we have already doubled Wednesday’s total!  That’s not a huge amount of rain, but it certainly helps with lawns, gardens, and agriculture.  We don’t want to get too much rain all at once.   Long duration heavy rains can often do more harm than good.

There is a good chance that will add to this “dent” in the deficit with more rain on the way Thursday afternoon and evening.

-Pete Mangione

According to the official stats at TF Green, we are running a rainfall deficit.  Now, it might not seem like it because PARTS of the past several weekends have been rainy.  In addition, we just went through a raw and rainy day on Tuesday.  But when we add up the actual AMOUNT of rain over the past month and a half, it just hasn’t added up to much.  (For those of you in eastern Mass and Cape Cod, you have obviously received a lot more rain than those of us in Rhode Island.)

Let’s look at the numbers for March:

ACTUAL RAINFALL IN MARCH: 2.94″

NORMAL RAINFALL IN MARCH: 5.01″

RAIN DEFICIT IN MARCH: 2.07″

We were hoping to play catch-up in April, but despite a few miserable, rainy days, that never really happened.

ACTUAL RAINFALL IN APRIL (UP TO APRIL 24): 1.64″

NORMAL RAINFALL IN APRIL (UP TO APRIL 24): 3.59″

RAIN DEFICIT IN APRIL (UP TO APRIL 24): 1.95″

According to the US Drought Monitor, parts of Rhode Island are in the “Abnormally Dry” category (shown by the yellow shading).  This is one level BELOW the “Moderate Drought” category. 

 So while we are not in an urgent situation just yet, we could sure use some more rain! Unfortunately, there is not a lot of rain showing up over the next 6 to 7 days.  We might be able to squeeze out a few showers, but nothing that substantial. 

The good news? If we are going to have some rain-free weather, we might as well have it on the weekend.  Indeed, this weekend looks rain free for all of your outdoor plans.

-Pete Mangione

One of the nice things about spring is that often we don’t need to heat or cool our homes very much.  Our wallets like this as our monthly bills tend to be lower! However, you may need to crank the heat up a little bit over the next several nights.  Some of our suburbs could be close to the freezing mark tonight and then again on Sunday night.  However, with daytime highs in the 60s and 50s we won’t need much heating (or cooling) for most of the day. 

Below is a look at a temperatures forecast for around midnight tonight; if you have plans to stay out late, make sure you bring the jacket! -Pete Mangione

The weather for the Boston Marathon on Monday will be ideal for the runners.  It will start out in the upper 30s to low 40s during the morning; afternoon temperatures should be in the mid 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy and conditions will dry.  Not too warm and not too cool…that’s all you can ask for when running 26 miles!

Obviously, if you are going to watch the race or are headed to the Red Sox game, you might want it a little bit warmer.  It is going to be hard to get VERY warm temperatures because of breezes coming in from the east and southeast by the afternoon.  This breeze in Boston brings the cooler ocean air into the city…so the light jacket will be a good thing to have on you tomorrow.  Below is a temperature forecast for around noon tomorrow (Monday).  Enjoy! -Pete Mangoine

Some very mild air is moving in Tuesday.  However, there is a threat of a few showers and there is also some question of how fast the clouds can clear out.  Looking at the most recent data (on Sunday night), I think that early morning showers will clear out by afternoon giving us highs in the low 70s.  However, one of our reliable computer models is keeping a few showers around into the afternoon.  If that were to happen, temperatures would probably stay in the 60s.  That is why the forecast on Tuesday is a tricky one…so stay tuned to Michelle and Tony this week as we fine tune the details.  The graphic below shows two extreme scenarios….we will probably fall somewhere in between this range. -Pete Mangione

The Red Sox home opening is Monday, and the weather looks great! Temperatures should be in the low 60s at the time of the first pitch (2:05PM) under partly cloudy skies.  I think you should still plan on bringing the jacket…here’s why:

Although the game will start mild, it’s possible some late afternoon breezes off the ocean will make it into Fenway by the time you are leaving the game.  That being said…it will be an all around beautiful afternoon for baseball.  Go Sox! -Pete Mangione

It looks like the bulk of the snow will stay offshore with the next ocean storm that will make a close pass on Monday.  However, it still looks like we will get “grazed” by the outer edge of the storm.  What does this mean for Monday?

10AM to 2PM: The potential of rain or snow showers moves in.  As temperatures stay above freezing, snow should not stick much to roads. 

2PM to 7PM: Off and on rain or snow showers.  It will still have a hard time sticking ot the roads.

7PM Monday to 7AM Tuesday: The chance of snow continues.  At this point, any snow that falls has a chance of sticking to the roads.  However, because snow is expected to be light, most areas will only get a coating.  Some areas may not even make it to a coating.

THIS STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.  If the storm shifts a little to the north, we would have to up snow accumulations, especially at the south coast. -Pete Mangione

We always show high and low temperatures when giving you a forecast.  However, sometimes the “actual” temperatures don’t tell the entire story.  This is especially true for today, where wind chills will stay in the 30s during the afternoon because of of gusts between 20 to 30 mph.  Below is a wind chill forecast:

We are still watching a storm for Monday. At this point, it’s likely that we will at least get “grazed” by some light snow or rain.  However, we need to keep watching this…should the storm track further north, this would be a more significant event.  In the meantime, enjoy the weekend!

-Pete Mangione

A mixed bag of weather so far on this Thursday afternoon….some have seen sun, others have seen snow, and many have seen both sun and snow at the same time!

Let’s break down the rest of today and tonight:

THIS AFTERNOON: Off and on light snow or rain showers.  Most of this will not stick to roads; there might be a few exceptions along and north and west of 295 where temperatures have been hanging around the freezing mark.  There is also a potential of a few isolated steadier bands of snow, especially by late afternoon.

THIS EVENING: Better chance of some steadier snow, although it’s not snowing the entire time.  As temperatures drop, snow will start to stick.  Therefore, we will give you the YELLOW light on the evening commute because of the potential of slick roads and periods of poor visibility. Most likely locations to pick up isolated heavier snow bands would be the southeast RI shore into eastern Mass.

OVERNIGHT: Chance of snow….what falls will stick…so use caution driving. 

Because there will be “skinny” snow bands moving through, many areas will end up with only a coating to about an inch. However, you may have a neighbor that lives just a few miles away that gets several inches.  This is important to keep in mind when looking at our 1-3″ shaded blue area below; most areas will be closer to the 1″ amount. 

We have to watch this closely….any skinny band of snow that sets up has the potential of producing even 4″ + inches of snow.  I am not saying this is going to happen but the potential is there….these are always very tough forecasts! Please see our summary and forecast graphics below. -Pete Mangione

By Friday Morning

Welcome to the first day of Spring! If you are a fan of mild weather, it’s probably not the kind of start you were hoping for.  The start of spring brings the potential of a HUGE range of temperatures.  We can still be affected by winter air masses from the north, but warm air masses from the south also can make their way into New England.   

Here is a look back at the first day of spring for the past 5 years; data is from TF Green Airport. 

2008    High Temp: 56     Low Temp: 35         Rain: 0.34”         Snow: 0.00”

2009     High Temp: 42     Low Temp: 28         Rain: 0.00”         Snow: 0.00”

2010      High Temp: 73     Low Temp: 39          Rain: 0.00”        Snow: 0.00”

2011       High Temp: 46     Low Temp: 28          Rain: 0.00″         Snow: 0.00″

2012      High Temp: 78    Low Temp: 44          Rain: 0.00″         Snow: 0.00″

Notice how it only rained once.  Also, notice how temperatures reached the 70s on 2 of the 5 days! (Sorry, not even close this year). -Pete Mangione

Sunday will be a little brighter than Saturday but it will also be breezier.  With afternoon wind chills in the 30s, sunglasses and jackets required if you are outside celebrating St Patrick’s Day.  The parade in West Warwick looks good!

Tomorrow (Monday) night, another storm will approach the area.  It will start as snow/sleet and then change to rain.  The coast will change to rain first, inland areas will take longer to change over.  As of now, I am thinking snow accumulations are likely north and west of 295; they are possible south of 295 but the chances are lower in this region.  We need to look at more information before we start putting out numbers and snow maps.  Regardless of snow amounts, the Tuesday morning commute will be messy and slow. -Pete Mangione 

It’s St Patty’s Day weekend and the weather looks good for all of those parades! Yes, it will be a little on the cool side, but at least the storms will stay away. 

The parade forecast for Newport includes a cloud/sun mix, but overall more clouds than sun.  Bring the jacket because temperatures will be in the 30s to low 40s during and after the parade.  Remember, this is not a bad forecast because some past Newport parades have had rain, sleet, snow, and wind.  That will not be the case today! -Pete Mangione

Remember to set your clocks one hour ahead tonight as we move into daylight saving time. 

The bad news? It’s one less hour for your weekend, and it may be a little harder to get up the next several mornings with the later sunrise times. 

The good news? Later sunset time giving you an extra hour of daylight in the evening. 

Enjoy the much deserved nice weather this weekend! -Pete Mangione

Below is our updated snow accumulation map.  This is not very different from what we had last night.  The only change is the increase in expected snowfall in northern Bristol County Mass.  Many of our computers are showing a “bulls-eye” of snow in eastern Mass somewhere between 195 and 495.  This is the reason for the increase of snow in this area. 

The bulk of the accumulation should occur after sunset tonight through tomorrow morning.   Stay tuned, surface temperatures will be near freezing for much of this event….even a change of a few degrees could mean big changes for our forecast. -Pete Mangione

Snow is falling across most of our area right now.  A lot of it is not actually sticking yet, but we some expect some of it to eventually accumulate.  Here are some headlines:

1) Snow/sleet will continue today, heavy at times.  It will have a hard time sticking south and east of Providence, but north and west of Providence several inches are possible.

2) For tonight (Thursday night into Friday morning), snow will continue and will start to stick more easily as temperatures drop. 

3) By Friday late morning, the accumulating snow should be over with.  The most snow will be found in areas north and west of Providence.  The lowest amounts will be at the coast.  Please see our accumulation map on the weather section of our website.

4) Don’t forget about the wind! We have already seen gusts over 40 mph at the Rhode Island south coast.  These strong winds will last a long time…all the way into Friday afternoon.  Power outages are possible in communities near the shore.  Winds won’t be quite as strong inland but some isolated damage and outages are also possible.

More updates through out the morning. -Pete Mangione

Big March snowstorms do happen sometimes in southern New England, but they are not that common.  This is primarily because March is a milder relative to the other winter months (December, January, February).  It is especially hard for snow to stick during the daylight hours in March, because the higher sun angle often keeps the surface too warm for much of the snow to stick.  

Two things usually happen during big March snowstorms:

1) A lot of the snow comes down at night on cold pavement, so it has a chance to stick.

2) The snow comes down heavy enough to “overpower” any milder air that is hanging around.  (There are a couple of scientific processes that cause this, but I will not get into that now.) 

So when was the last time we had a big snow storm in March? We have to go back 4 years to March 1st and 2nd of 2009.  It started on a Sunday evening and lasted overnight into Monday afternoon.  As mentioned above, the fact that most of the snow fell at night and not the daytime helped the snow pile up.   I remember working that Sunday night, and the snow really started to come down during our 11PM news!    

This next storm is tricky, because some of the snow will come down during the day and some of it will fall at night.  Many areas may not quite make it to the 2010 totals, but stay tuned for changes! -Pete Mangione

Here is a look back at snow totals for that March storm in 2009

RHODE ISLAND

…KENT COUNTY…
   WEST GREENWICH        12.0   613 PM   3/2 
   COVENTRY              11.5   930 AM   3/2   AMATEUR RADIO
   WARWICK               11.1  1008 PM   3/2   TF GREEN
   WEST WARWICK          10.3   747 PM   3/2 

…NEWPORT COUNTY…
   MIDDLETOWN             5.5   911 AM   3/2   SPOTTER
   PORTSMOUTH             5.3   611 AM   3/2   EMERGENCY MANAGER
   LITTLE COMPTON         5.0   845 AM   3/2   SPOTTER
   MIDDLETOWN             5.0   655 AM   3/2   COCORAHS
   LITTLE COMPTON         4.5   600 AM   3/2   COCORAHS

…PROVIDENCE COUNTY…
   CUMBERLAND            10.5   818 AM   3/3   NORTH CUMBERLAND
   NORTH PROVIDENCE      10.0  1143 PM   3/2 
   WOONSOCKET            10.0  1235 PM   3/2   SKYWARN
   BURRILLVILLE           9.5   238 PM   3/2   SPOTTER
   CRANSTON               9.5   856 AM   3/2   SPOTTER
   LINCOLN                9.5  1200 PM   3/2   NWS EMPLOYEE
   PROVIDENCE             9.0   710 PM   3/2 
   PAWTUCKET              8.2  1119 AM   3/2   SKYWARN
   EAST PROVIDENCE        7.3  1227 PM   3/2   SKYWARN
   SCITUATE               7.0   700 AM   3/2   AMATEUR RADIO
   HARRISVILLE            5.0   500 AM   3/2   PUBLIC

…WASHINGTON COUNTY…
   CHARLESTOWN            8.0   830 AM   3/2   AMATEUR RADIO
   NARRAGANSETT           8.0   930 AM   3/2   AMATEUR RADIO
   WESTERLY DOWNTOWN      8.0   830 AM   3/2   AMATEUR RADIO
   NORTH KINGSTOWN        7.6   121 AM   3/2   SKYWARN

At this point, we are confident that this storm will not completely ”miss” us.  We WILL get strong wind and heavy precipitation WILL fall at times.  However, there is still come uncertainty about what type of precipitation will fall, and how much of it will actually stick.

To get snow that actually sticks, temperatures usually have to be at or below zero from high up in the sky right down to the surface.  With this upcoming storm, it’s those surface temperatures which are sitting on the fence between a big snow storm and just a few inches.

But wait, I’ve seen it snow before when the temperature is a few degrees above freezing? Yes, this happens all the time.  During this type of situation, the snow may coat the grass and car tops but it has a hard time sticking to the roads.  This is a common situation in March, especially during the daytime when surface temperatures are generally warmer.

For this storm, surface temperatures look like they will be just around freezing for a lot of the event.  Our computers are telling us that the south coast temperatures will be just above freezing, and inland areas will be just below freezing. 

However, during periods of heavy precipitation, the computer models often “overdo” the surface temperatures.   That’s because heavy precipitation can cool the atmosphere through a process called evaporational cooling.

The graphic below shows what one of our computer models is forecasting for surface temperatures overnight.  The line which touches the northwest corner of Rhode Island represents 32°.  This indicates that most of our area is forecast to be above freezing overnight, which would mean either rain or wet snow that doesn’t really stick.  However,  if the precipitation comes down heavy enough, some of our area could fall below freezing leading to some accumulations. 

For now, we are not expecting that much of the snow to stick tonight, but it’s going to be a close call.  The bulk of the accumulating snow may not fall until Thursday night into Friday morning. -Pete Mangione

In the TV business they are called reruns.  In the weather department, I call them “repeats”.  Basically, Sunday will be very similar to yesterday.  There will be a slightly higher chance of getting a few flurries, in fact some spots have already seen some this morning.  Here is an hourly breakdown. -Pete Mangione

March 1st is the start of the “meteorological spring”.  (Most of us are more familiar with the astronomical start to spring.  This year, that will not be until March 20).

No matter how you define spring, we know that March is a month that typically brings a lot of change.  The fact that we set our clocks forward one hour on March 10th only makes the changes more pronounced. 

Below are some of the specific changes March brings.  Notice how the normal high temperature jumps from 43 to 53 from March 1st to March 31.   -Pete Mangione

It was nice not having to get the snow shovels out this morning! Expect off/on rain showers this morning into the early afternoon.  (Northern Rhode Island may mix in some sleet or wet snow at times) 

The rain snow line slowly creeps back south this afternoon….Providence may seen some snow flakes by mid afternoon, the south coast probably not until around sunset. The flakes will have a hard time sticking today because temperatures will be above freezing. 

After sunset those temperatures will start to drop and some of the snow will stick, which could create some slick or snow covered roads.  Overall, most of the area will just get a dusting to one inch of snow.  Areas north and west of 295 could see 1-2 inches.  -Pete Mangione

Several of our reliable computer models are now starting to come together on a 2nd wave of snow developing Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.  Even though the center of the storm will be well offshore by this point, a piece of energy will extend from the center back into New England.  You can think of this piece of energy as a spoke on a bicycle wheel. 

This energy piece looks like it will affect us Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night.  However, this type of weather feature can be very tricky…some areas could get several inches while others only a dusting. 

We will stick with our amounts for now which you can see in the previous blog entry.  Because it will be cold enough for snow by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, it is likely that most of our snow accumulation will be picked up during this time period.  Stay tuned, because this type of weather feature can be very difficult to forecast, and we may have to make changes through out the weekend.  For now, I leave you with the forecast for 11PM on Sunday night…..it shows that snow is still possible at that point. -Pete Mangione

In terms of impacting road and travel conditions, there is always one combination that is bad news: A LOT of snow over a SHORT amount of time.  That is what happened during the blizzard a few weeks ago. 

Here is the good news….the exact opposite will happen with this much weaker storm! Because snow will mix with sleet and rain, accumulations will be limited.  Here is a timeline:

THIS AFTERNOON: Snow overspreads the area…with mixing to rain possible at coast.

THIS EVENING: Snow mixes with rain and sleet.  A coating of snow along with some freezing rain or ice could make roads slick….especially north and west of 295. 

OVERNIGHT: Rain/snow/sleet mix for most of us……just rain at the coast.

SUNDAY: Mix changes back over to snow.  Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening might be when we pick up most of our snow accumulation.  Expected amounts are below….this is what will be on the ground by late Sunday night into early Monday morning. -Pete Mangione

With the Blizzard of 2013 and several other snowstorms already in the books, it has been quite a winter so far! Here in the weather department, we are constantly being asked, “Why are we getting all of this snow? It is ever going to stop?” Those are very complex questions with many contributing factors such as air pressure patterns across the globe, sea surface temperatures, and the position of the jet stream. 

One term you may have heard thrown around is the NAO, or the North Atlantic Oscillation.  The NAO refers to the difference between two pressure centers….the “Azores High Pressure” and the “Icelandic Low Pressure”.   The Azores High (see the H in the figures below) is a high pressure center located offshore from Portugal, and the Icelandic Low (see the L in the figures below) is a low pressure center located in the North Atlantic near Iceland. 

The NAO is in a positive phase when the difference between the high and low is strong.  This large difference in pressure is enough to pull the jet stream between the two.  This has the effect of flattening and shifting the jet stream to the north in the eastern United States.   If you think about the jet stream like a storm track, a storm track to our north usually means less storms and milder temperatures.  Therefore, a “NAO Positive Mode” often leads to warmer, and less stormy conditions in the eastern United States (see the globe on the right of the figure below).

 The NAO is in a negative phase when the difference between the high and the low is weak.  This causes the average position of the jet stream to “dip” further to the south in the United States.  This pulls in colder air and usually brings in a relatively higher amount of snow storms (see the globe on the left of the figure below).

Can the NAO be used to predict snow in southern New England?

Let’s look back at the NAO status over the years and compare it to some of our big snow storms here in New England.  In the figure below, the blue represents periods that, on average, were in a negative NAO.  The red represents a positive NOA phase.

Notice the large blue spike in 1996 indicating a strong negative phase of the NAO.  Of course most of us remember the blizzard of ’96, and that the winter of 95-96’ was jammed packed with snow storms! Notice another blue spike for the start of 1978…..no one can forget the blizzard of ’78. 

But there are many cases where a negative NAO did not lead to a big snow storm or a snowy winter.  Notice the prolonged blue spike at the end of 2009 into 2010.  While we did have a lot of snow in December 2009, the Providence area didn’t get that much from January 2010 into the rest of the winter.  However, the mid-Atlantic (including the Washington DC area) was slammed with several monster snow storms; a lot of these storms missed us just to the south.  Basically, an active storm track produced by a negative NAO doesn’t necessarily aim these storms right at New England.  Because of the way that we stick out in the water, it is always difficult to forecast which storms will get us and which ones will be a near miss.

So what’s the outlook for the last month of winter?

Let’s start with the NAO forecast first.  The chart below has a lot on it, so just focus on the first graph with the spaghetti plot of red lines coming out of it.  These red lines represent the NAO forecast into the start of March.  Because these red lines are BELOW the solid dashed lines, it indicates that the NAO will stay negative for a few more weeks. 

This suggests, on average, we can expect colder temperatures and an active storm track.  However, an active storm track can produce lots of snow but can also produce storms that just miss us. This weekend is a perfect example! We know a storm is coming for sure, but where exactly will it go? Stay tuned, you will be hearing this a lot over the next few weeks. –Pete Mangione

Good morning….as of 10:30AM here are some updated snow totals:

New Bedford, MA: 4.5″

Taunton, MA: 4.0″

Franklin, MA: 3.5″

Scituate, RI: 3.3″

Bristol, RI: 3.0″

Warwick, RI: 3.0″

East Killingly, CT: 3.0″

Narragansett, RI: 2.5″

MANVILLE, RI            4.1″ 

SCITUATE, RI               2.0 ”

 CRANSTON, RI           1.8 ”

As you can see, most of our area ranging from 2 to 4.5 inches of snow.  This is below the 4-7 inches I had in the forecast this morning….which I changed to 3-6 inches by the end of the morning show.  I left in those high amounts in the range because even as of early this morning, it wasn’t clear how much the storm with strengthen before moving out of our area.  It was a very tricky forecast!

Forutnately, we avoided a major snowstorm…but the bad news is that the winds will be very strong today.  This will lead to blowing and drifting snow so please use caution.

While there might be a little snow this afternoon, most of the accumulating snow is over with.  (The exception to this will be Plymouth County Mass and Cape Cod, where over 6 inches of snow is possible.)

With gusts between 40-50 mph possible today, some isolated power outages are possible.  I don’t think we will see nearly as many as for the blizzard last week.  

Have a great Sunday and be safe! -Pete Mangione

As of around 2PM, some of the updated weather models still hinting at a moderate snow event for our area.

Here is one change I might make to the map at the bottom of this post: it would be to pull that 3-6″ blue area right into Little Compton, RI.  (I don’t have the ability to change that from this computer, but TJ will be in at 6PM with an updated map).  Basically, this would give most of our area 2-5″ of snow…but 3-6″ possible from the southeastern shore of Rhode Island into southern Bristol County Mass.  

See below for more details….

TIMING

This Afternoon: Off and on light to moderate snow…some mixing to rain is possible near the coast.  Accumulations today ranging from a dusting to 1″.

THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT: Snow will start to become steadier, and roads will become slick or snow-covered as temperatures drop.

SUNDAY MIDNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Periods of snow….a few heavy bands are possible.  Most of the accumulating snow will come to an end by late morning through the early afternoon.

HOW MUCH SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON? See map below…and stay tuned for changes.  These amounts may have to be adjusted as new information comes in. Stay tuned for updates on this blog and on wpri.com -Pete Mangione

You have heard the term “historic storm” a lot over the past few days.  The blizzard of 2013 certainly was historic and will be remembered for a long time.  For you snow geeks (like me), below is a graphic of how the snow numbers break down at TF Green airport.  We made #8 of all time!

Obviously, this TF Green number is much less then what most of us picked up.  However, that’s where the records are officially kept and there is not much we can do about it. Ha ha.  I laugh because there are constant complaints that the airport is “stingy” with their snow measurements.  I did not go out there and measure it myself so I will go by their word on this matter.  I measured 16.0 inches here at the station in East Providence so the TF Green number doesn’t seem that unrealistic.

Stay safe and hopefully the power comes back on soon for those of you still stuck without power.   -Pete Mangione

Below is a question that was submitted on our blog.  It is such a common question, I thought I would post her question and my answer.  Her question in bold, and my response is below……..

Any tips on how to keep pipes from freezing if you don’t have a generator and no fireplace? How long before that becomes an issue with the temperatures set to drop again tonight. I’m out of town so not in a cold house and with the storm have no way to get back any time soon. I also cannot reach anyone – phones also are out – to check on the house. The heat has been off now for 18 hours. Any ideas that you can share about how long it takes with these kinds of temps and wind chills for the temp to drop close to freezing inside the house? 

Hi Anne, 

Based on my own experience and the forecast for the next several days, here is what I can tell you (a few excellent articles on weather.com also helped me research this topic). 

The good news is that temperatures dipping below freezing don’t necessarily freeze pipes.  It usually takes temperatures much colder.  Temperatures below 20° for an extended amount of time can freeze pipes, but pipes in northern climates can survive temperatures well below that level.  This is because homes in northern climates are built to give pipes a better chance of making it through freezing weather.   

Unfortunately tonight, the forecast takes us into the single digits and low teens.  However, that’s no guarantee that your pipes will freeze.  Sunday we get back into the upper 30s, and Monday into the 40s.  Therefore, if your pipes can get through tonight you have a good chance of being OK.

If you know  a friend or neighbor that can get into your home tonight, have them try letting the water drip a bit from a faucet.  If the water does not come out, turn the faucet off and have them contact a plumber.  If water DOES drip out, keep letting it drip as this may prevent freezing.  It’s probably a good idea for you friend to keep an eye on things during this process.

Good luck!

-Pete Mangione

Most areas ranged from 1.5  to 2 feet, and some got even more.  Most of the accumulating snow is over with, and now the clean up gets underway.  There were numerous power outages overnight, please see my previous blog post for tips on staying warm without working heat.

Rest of the day: The kids may be going crazy to play in the snow, but please make sure the area is safe before taking anyone out.  There are many downed branches and power lines which are obviously safety concerns.  Winds will stay strong for much of the day, but not nearly as gusty as early this morning and last night.  That being said, blowing snow and additional downed branches will still be a concern.

Temperatures will drop into the teens overnight, so those still without power will have a tough night ahead.  If you still have power, please give your friends or neighbors a call to see if they need some housing for the night. -Pete Mangione

Here is a list of snow totals as of 9AM: