T.J. Del Santo

Tropical Depression #2 Has Formed

July 21st, 2014 at 4:56 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s not too much of a surprise…Tropical Depression #2 has formed in the Deep Tropics.

TD2

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The system has become better organized with thunderstorms organizing around the center of circulation.  TD #2 is expected to continue to move west-northwestward with minimal development.  The National Hurricane Center said that it will be moving over an area of unfavorable water temperatures in the next 2 days.  Also, drier air near the Caribbean Sea will also hinder its development.  Still, it’s a system to watch closely in the coming days.

 

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 -Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Bertha in the Making?

July 21st, 2014 at 2:27 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

In the central Atlantic Ocean, there is an area of low pressure which could soon become the next tropical storm.  If sustained winds strengthen to at least 39mph, it would be named Bertha.  The National Hurricane Center in Miami said there is a 70% chance that this area becomes a tropical depression. Conditions are favorable for strengthening in the next couple of days.

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It’s about 1250miles east of the Caribbean.  It’s days away from affecting any land, but it is certainly something to watch as it continues to move westward.

The visible satellite image shows a well defined circulation, and in my opinion, it is probably already a tropical depression and close to a tropical storm.  There are no plans for Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate this area (it’s still pretty far away).   Nonetheless, the National Hurricane Center is advising people in the eastern Caribbean to monitor the situation closely.

vis0-lalo

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A Mostly Dry Weekend

July 19th, 2014 at 8:53 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Despite lots of clouds over Southern New England this weekend, we should stay mostly dry.  High pressure passing to our north and east today will keep us dry through the daylight hours.

 Fcst_Map_650x366

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11am Weather Update

July 16th, 2014 at 11:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As this slow-moving weather system continues to move east, the heaviest of the rain and thus the warnings continue to shift east.

As of 11am, the heaviest of the rain extends from just east of Block Island to New Bedford…heading northeastward.

Daily-Graphic-3_650x366

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Arthur’s Gone….But We’re Always Watching The Tropics

July 5th, 2014 at 8:14 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The remnants of Hurricane Arthur are now over New Brunswick in Canada.  Maine saw quite a bit of rain today from “Post Tropical Storm Arthur.

Arthur_IR_650x366

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So, one named storm down.  The next up is Bertha on this year’s list of names.

Hurricane_Names_650x366

In the Atlantic Basin, there’s really nothing anywhere that would form into a tropical system anytime soon.

Tropics_Wide_650x366

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Hurricane Arthur — 11pm Friday Update

July 5th, 2014 at 12:02 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 11pm Friday evening, Arthur was still a hurricane; although barely.  It was looking pretty ragged in satellite pictures and winds are barely of hurricane strength.

 Arthur_Vis2_650x366

Arthur was about 75miles ESE of Chatham, MA around 11pm and was continuing its rapid pace across the North Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes.  It’s losing tropical characteristics; instead becoming an extratropical or non-tropical storm. 

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Hurricane Arthur 8pm Friday Update

July 4th, 2014 at 7:53 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

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As of 8pm, Hurricane Arthur remains a hurricane with winds of 80mph.  He’s really picking up steam and will pass to the southeast of Nantucket in the next several hours.  Winds are picking up on the Cape and Islands and we’ll likely see a period of gusty winds as well.

 

Arthur_Vis2_650x366

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Arthur 5pm Update

July 4th, 2014 at 5:17 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Arthur losing some intensity…now a 80mph hurricane.  Arthur will pass approximately 50 miles to the southeast of Nantucket early Saturday morning.

Arthur_Radar_650x366

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Flash Flood Emergency for New Beford Area

July 4th, 2014 at 4:44 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A rare Flash Flood Emergency has been issued by the National Weather Service for the New Bedford area.  More than 5inches of rain has fallen since 1pm and a total of 8-10″ is expected before it’s done. 

If you live in a flood prone area, seek higher ground now.  Never cross a flooded roadway.  Travel is not recommended except for fleeing flood waters.

Storm_Radar2_650x366


Arthur Latest: 3-6″ of Rain Now Expected

July 4th, 2014 at 3:29 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Based on radar intensity and what has fallen already, we are now expecting between 3 and 6 inches of rain for our area.  Many areas have already picked up more than 2″ of rain, including New Bedford where there have been numerous reports of flooded roadways.  At one point there was more than 2600 NSTAR customers without power in that city.  Rain will continue to work its way northward through the evening and into early Saturday morning.

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Here’s what to expect the rest of today.

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Arthur continues to work its way northeastward and will make its closest approach to Southern New England early Saturday morning — passing about 50miles southeast of Nantucket.

Arthur_Forecast_650x366

 

Here are some links where you can find more information about our local weather and how you can better prepare for severe weather in our area.

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Midnight Update

July 4th, 2014 at 12:22 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of midnight, Arthur was over Cedar Island National Wildlife Refuge in North Carolina.  Winds of 100mph, moving northeast at 18mph.

Arthur_Radar_650x366

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


National Weather Service Statement on Arthur

July 4th, 2014 at 12:04 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

HURRICANE ARTHUR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS…

.NEW INFORMATION…
UPDATED FORECAST INFORMATION DETAILS FOR THE OUTER RHODE ISLAND
COASTAL WATERS…AND THE MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET.

.AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

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Arthur 11pm Update

July 3rd, 2014 at 11:56 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 11pm Thursday, Arthur was near 34.6N 76.6W right over Cape Lookout, NC and 75 miles WSW of Cape Hatteras, NC.    It was moving northeast at 18mph…a significant increase in forward speed.   Winds remain at Category 2 strength…100mph.

Arthur_Radar_650x366

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Arthur Now a Category 2 Hurricane

July 3rd, 2014 at 9:22 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Hurricane hunter aircraft measured winds of 100mph around Arthur….it has now been upgraded to a Category 2 Storm.

On it’s current path, it should make landfall near Morehead City, NC.

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Hurricane Arthur 8pm Update

July 3rd, 2014 at 8:27 pm by under General Talk

At 8pm, Hurricane Arthur was near 33.8N 77.4W moving NNE at 15mph.  It’s begun that right hand turn and is picking up a little speed as it interacts with a weather system moving through the Northeast United States.  It has winds of 90mph, a Category 1 Hurricane.

Here’s the satellite/radar picture at 8:15pm Thursday evening.  It’s a very well developed storm with thunderstorms completely around the center of circulation. 

 Arthur_IR_650x366

 

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Arthur is still expected to pass to our southeast, but close enough to bring us periods of heavy rain on Friday and a heavy surf Friday through the weekend.

Arthur_Forecast_650x366

 -Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Arthur and the 4th of July — 11pm Update

July 2nd, 2014 at 11:23 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

At 11pm, Tropical Storm Arthur was near 30.6N and 79.1W.  It was approximately 380miles southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC or about 160 miles SSE of Charleston, SC.   It still has winds of 70mph and is moving north at 8mph.

New in the 11pm update: Tropical storm force winds possible for parts of our area…details further below.

Arthur continues to be a well-formed tropical system.  Strong thunderstorms continue to circulate around the center and there is minimal shear (upper-level winds which can tear apart a tropical system).  

 

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During the next 24 hours, Arthur is expected to become hurricane.  It has plenty of warm water to use as fuel for intensification.  Hurricanes can strengthen when water temperatures are 80°F (26.6°F) or warmer. 

 SST

As Arthur moves north, it will intensify, then turn right or northeast as it approaches North Carolina.  It will come very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  

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Arthur Update – 8pm Information

July 2nd, 2014 at 8:04 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

At 8pm Wednesday, Tropical Storm Arthur was at 29.7N 79.1W or about 435 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC and about 220 miles south-southeast of Charleston, SC.  It has winds of 70mph, still just 4mph shy of being a hurricane.  It is moving to the north at 7mph, still fairly slowly.

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The convection or showers/t’storms continue to be strongest around the center of circulation.  This will continue to help intensify the storm.  Water temperatures are 80°…plenty warm enough to feed the system for further intensification.

Arthur will continue to move to the north then turn northeast Thursday evening, then pass to our south and east on Friday night and Saturday morning.   Multiple computer models are in agreement that Arthur will avoid a direct hit on Southern New England.  The image below shows the forecast paths of various computer models.

Arthur_Models_650x366

With a path offshore, we will avoid the wind, but get the rain.  Friday still looks like a washout.

The next National Hurricane Center update is around 11pm.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

On Twitter: @tjdelsanto

 


Arthur Latest – 5pm Wednesday

July 2nd, 2014 at 7:26 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 5pm Wednesday, Tropical Storm Arthur was near 29.7N 79.1W or about 435miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC.  It was moving northward at 7mph.  Sustained winds are of 70mph, just 4mph shy of being a hurricane.

 

Arthur_Vis_650x366

Convection (showers/t’storms) around the center continues to look impressive.  You can see the clumpy white clouds right around the center of circulation on the visible satellite picture above.

In the infrared satellite picture below, where the temperature of the cloud tops is measured, you can see the purples and pinks of the coldest cloud tops around the northern periphery of the storm.

Arthur_IR_650x366

Arthur is expected to form into a hurricane, possibly by later this evening.  A northward movement will continue before a weather system moving across the Midwest begins to steer Arthur to the northeast.

Arthur_Forecast_650x366

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Hurricane Arthur will pass to our south and east late Friday and early Saturday.  Although we won’t get the winds associated with Arthur, we will see some rain.  Moisture associated with the system will stream along a cold front moving through New England on Friday.

Fcst_Map_650x366

The interaction between the front and moisture will produce occasional rain, possibly heavy at times, through the day on Friday…beginning in the morning and continuing through the evening.  Some thunderstorms are possible, too.  The 4th of July looks like it could be a washout.

Once the front passes through the area, drier air will return for Saturday and Sunday.  However, the hurricane will have stirred up the ocean so much that large waves will be crashing on our shores and dangerous rip currents are possible through the weekend.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

 


Severe Thunderstorm Watch

July 2nd, 2014 at 4:04 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for areas north and west of Providence.  This includes communities such as Providence, North Providence, Pawtucket, Cranston, Johnston, Central Falls, Lincoln, Cumberland, Woonsocket, Smithfield, North Smithfield, Burrillville, Foster, Glocester and Scituate. 

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A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means that the atmospheric conditions are favorable for severe storms.  Severe Thunderstorms can bring torrential rain, frequent lightning, hail and damaging winds.  If a severe thunderstorm is threatening your area, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued.

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As of 4pm, a line of showers and strong/severe thunderstorms was moving through Western New England.  I turned the lightning tracker on and more than 38,000 lightning strikes were detected in that area!!!!  These storms could move into our area after 6pm.  You can be sure we will be tracking the line very closely.

Storm_Radar_650x366

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

on Twitter: @tjdelsanto


Watching the Tropics This Week

June 29th, 2014 at 11:12 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As we head through this holiday week, we will have a few things to watch 1) Humidity 2) Showers and T’storms and 3) the Tropics.  Yes, Hurricane Season is barely a month old and we are monitoring an area off the coast of Florida for possible tropical development.

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Showers and T’storms Thursday

June 25th, 2014 at 5:09 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Lots of moisture, a cold front and an energetic jetstream will work together to produce potentially flooding rains on Thursday.

A cold front moving across the Northeastern United States Wednesday afternoon will continue to move toward Southern New England.  This front is serving as a spark for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  We will stay dry this evening, but obviously areas to the west and north are getting pretty wet.

 

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That cold front will advance southeastward into Southern New England tonight, then will slow down as an area of low pressure develops along it.

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CVS Charity Classic Weather

June 22nd, 2014 at 11:05 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After a stellar weekend, we are going to get more beautiful weather for the beginning of the work, school and golfing week.

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High pressure will continue to control our weather through the day on Monday both in the low-levels and high-levels of the atmosphere.  This is a weather pattern favorable for dry and sunny weather, which is what we’ll get for Monday.

For Barrington, specifically, expect sunny skies with cool’ish temperatures in the morning.  Opening ceremonies will be dry with temperatures in the 60s at 9:15am.  First tee off is scheduled for 10:30am, and the temperatures will continue their climb through the 60s into the 70s.   Mid-afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with a wind coming right up the bay (tending south-southeast 5-10mph).

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Hurricane Season Begins

June 1st, 2014 at 12:29 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

In the Atlantic Basin, Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.  This is the time of year when conditions are the most favorable for tropical storm development, but it’s not impossible to see tropical storms or hurricanes outside of these 6months.

Tropical storms and hurricanes form over very warm water (usually at least 80°).    We are just beginning to see the water temperatures reach 80° in the tropics.  Here’s a look at the current sea surface temperatures.

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Usually, the most active time of any hurricane season is late August into October when the ocean temperatures are at their warmest.  In the graph below, notice the peak of hurricanes around September 10.  This is the busiest day, typically, for tropical activity in the Atlantic….when water temperatures are warm and the weather patterns are still favorable for tropical storm development. (more…)


Memorial Day Outlook

May 26th, 2014 at 12:07 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Overall, Memorial Day looks really nice.  There is one concern and that’s for the morning.

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Showers moving through Upstate New York Sunday evening will continue to move southeast through the night.  Multiple computer models indicate that these showers will reach Southeast New Englandy by 7am.    Here is computer model, the HRRR, from the National Weather Service.

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Showers and T’storms Possible Sunday

May 25th, 2014 at 12:08 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Sunday will likely be a big day for Memorial Day parades, observances, ceremonies and barbecues.  For the most part, the weather will cooperate, but it won’t be a perfect day.  Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast.

Fcst_Map_650x366

A cold pool of air above our heads will create a sharp contrast in the atmosphere.  At about 18,000 feet above us, the temperature will be -20°C or -4°F.   Any sunshine will warm things up in the low-levels.  That warmer air will be able to rise into the cold air above our heads and any showers that do develop will grow tall into the atmosphere– thunderstorms can form more easily..

These storms will have the potential to produce:

  • Torrential rain
  • Frequent lightning
  • Strong, gusty winds
  • Small hail

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Meteor Shower Weather Forecast

May 23rd, 2014 at 12:27 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A potentially major meteor shower will be in the skies of New England and all of North America early Saturday morning.  For the first time, the Earth will be passing through streams of debris leftover from Comet 209P/Linear.  Although there is not a lot known about this meteor shower, there is the potential for dozens or even hundreds of meteors per hour early Saturday morning.  The name of the meteor shower is the Camelopardalids, named for the constellation where the meteors will appear.

Unfortunately for New England, the weather does not look favorable for seeing the meteors.  An area of low pressure will be passing to our south and east overnight.  Northeasterly winds will be developing and these are cool and damp winds which can bring low clouds and drizzle.  Some showers are also possible.

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RPM Computer Model of Precipitation, Winds and Sea Level Pressure at 3am Saturday May 24

RPM Computer Model of Precipitation, Winds and Sea Level Pressure at 3am Saturday May 24

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Meteor Shower Early Saturday Morning Could Be a Memorable One

May 23rd, 2014 at 9:25 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

This could be a once or twice in a lifetime event.  During the early morning of May 24th, dozens or maybe hundreds of meteors per hour could be visible!  However, it’s also possible this meteor shower could be a dud.  We just don’t know enough about it.

One of the most famous meteor storms occurred in 1833 when the Leonid meteors erupted into a display of thousands of meteors per hour.   This likely won’t happen early Saturday morning because the source comet is not all that big and the amount of debris in space is likely not as plentiful.

Adolph Vollmy's woodcut of the 1833 Leonid Meteor Storm

Adolph Vollmy’s woodcut of the 1833 Leonid Meteor Storm

Comet 209P/Linear

The meteors are from Comet 209P/Linear.  Research has indicated that all the debris trails from the comet between the years 1803 and 1924 fall in the path of the Earth’s orbit this month.  This will be the first time the Earth will pass through these debris trails, which is why researchers believe this could be a significant meteor event!

Comet 209P/Linear was named for the observatory where the comet was discovered.  The Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research project is a collaboration between the Air Force and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.   MIT is in Cambridge, MA, but the actual observatory is located on the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.  Comet 209P/Linear will actually make a close pass to Earth on May 29th, coming about  5.2million miles from us.  That’s astronomically close, but the comet is of no threat to us.   It is unknown when the Earth will pass through this debris again.

Comet 209P/Linear: Courtesy NASA

Comet 209P/Linear: Courtesy NASA

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Climate Report

May 6th, 2014 at 5:39 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The National Climate Assessment report states that our weather could get a lot worse if changes aren’t made to the amount of carbon pollution emitted into the atmosphere.

Nationally, California has been dealing with a prolonged drought, wildfires have been spreading across parts of the Plains, we’ve seen devastating heat waves in the Midwest and historic flooding locally.  The report, a collaboration among 300 experts, states these weather events will have increasingly greater impacts on people across the country.   Here in the Northeast, heat waves, coastal flooding & river flooding will be growing challenges to environmental, social and economic systems.

From the report:

“Some of these changes can be beneficial over the short run, such as a
longer growing season in some regions and a longer shipping season on
the Great Lakes. But many more are detrimental, largely because our
society and its infrastructure were designed for the climate that we
have had, not the rapidly changing climate we now have and can expect in
the future. In addition, climate change does not occur in isolation.
Rather, it is superimposed on other stresses, which combine to create
new challenges”. – 2014 National Climate Assessment

I had the opportunity to speak with Rhode Island Senator Sheldon Whitehouse about the report.  Senator Whitehouse is passionate about the topic of climate change, especially when it comes to Rhode Island.

He told me that the effects on people are numerous across the country.  Here in Rhode Island, we’re seeing the sea level rising against our shores, and we’re seeing ocean temperatures rise.  He cited winter time blooms in local apple orchards due to record warm temperatures in 2012.

Apple trees in bloom in March of 2012 at Pippin Orchards in Cranston

Apple trees in bloom in March of 2012 at Pippin Orchards in Cranston

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Eta Aquarid Meteor Shower Peaks Tuesday Morning

May 5th, 2014 at 3:47 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The last time Halley’s Comet blew through the inner solar system was in 1986.  This short-period comet visits approximately every 76 years, and each time it does, bits and pieces of the comet are left behind in space.

Courtesy European Space Agency

Courtesy European Space Agency

In the photo above, you can see the debris (pieces of dust and tiny rock) being shed by the comet’s nucleus as it got closer to the sun in 1986.   The Earth passes through the debris of Halley’s Comet a couple of times every year (the other time is in October).  The debris flies through our atmosphere at 148,000 miles per hour and burns up, leaving a streak of light across the night sky.

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Wednesday’s Downpours, Thunder and Hail

April 23rd, 2014 at 1:39 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After some morning thunderstorms moved through Southern New England this morning, we are still looking at the potential for more storms this afternoon.  Storms this morning brought numerous loud lightning strikes and hail.  In fact, one house in Warwick was struck by lightning.  Small hail fell over parts of Western Cranston as you can see by this picture from a Facebook friend — hail on doormat.

hail_cranston

UPDATE:  New pictures of lightning strike in Cranston from Steve Nielsen.  The owner of this Applewood Road house in Cranston thinks the lightning hit his flag pole first, then his house.

Courtesy Steve Nielsen

Courtesy Steve Nielsen

Courtesy: Steve Nielsen

Courtesy: Steve Nielsen

 

Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar as of 1:30pm showed the heaviest of the action to our east over Cape Cod. (more…)