T.J. Del Santo

Nice Stretch of Weather

July 29th, 2014 at 1:10 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After a humid and showery stretch, we will have a nice stretch of weather the rest of the week.

A cold front ushered in much less humid air into Southern New England this morning. The dew points dropped from 71 Monday afternoon to 58 this afternoon.  The dew point is a measurement of the amount of moisture in the atmosphere.  The higher the dew point, the stickier it feels.

Fcst_Map3_650x366

That cold front will stall offshore and hang out there for the balance of the week (and may play a role in our weekend).  An area of low pressure will ride along the front Wednesday and may bring extra clouds to Southeast Massachusetts.  We’ll enjoy more nice weather for Wednesday with sunshine and continued comfortable dew points.

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Revere, MA Tornado Report

July 29th, 2014 at 6:24 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The first tornado in recorded history in Suffolk County, MA hit the city of Revere on Monday, July 29, 2014.  The tornado caused considerable damage to buildings, houses, trees, power lines and vehicles.

Revere_6

Below is the report from the National Weather Service regarding the EF2 tornado which had winds estimated to be as strong as 120mph.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
432 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

…TORNADO CONFIRMED IN SUFFOLK COUNTY MA…

LOCATION…CHELSEA AND REVERE IN SUFFOLK COUNTY MA
DATE… JULY 28 2014
ESTIMATED TIME…9:32 – 9:36 AM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING…EF2
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED…120 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH…3/8 OF A MILE
PATH LENGTH…2.0 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON…42.3980 / -71.0219
ENDING LAT/LON…42.4225 / -71.0037
* FATALITIES…0
* INJURIES…0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

…SUMMARY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA HAS CONFIRMED THAT A
TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON THE MORNING OF JULY 28 2014 IN CHELSEA
AND REVERE IN SUFFOLK COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS. IT HAD A PATH LENGTH
OF 2 MILES AND PATH WIDTH OF 3/8 OF A MILE. MOST DAMAGE HAD A
RATING OF EF-1 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE BUT EF-2 DAMAGE WAS
OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF REVERE BEACH PARKWAY. THUS THIS EVENT
IS CLASSIFIED AS AN EF-2 TORNADO. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WERE
ESTIMATED AT BETWEEN 100 AND 120 MPH. THANKFULLY AND MIRACULOUSLY
THERE WERE NO FATALITIES OR INJURIES REPORTED AS A RESULT OF THIS
TORNADO.

ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO BEGAN IN CHELSEA…WHERE A WINDOW WAS
REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN BLOWN OUT ON DUDLEY STREET…THE
OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF DAMAGE OCCURRED IN THE TOWN OF REVERE.

THE TORNADO MOVED ACROSS THE CHELSEA RIVER…DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
PAUL CRONIN MEMORIAL SKATING RINK…AND PORTIONS OF ITS ROOF WERE
BLOWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ROUTE 16. NUMEROUS HOUSES ON REVERE
BEACH PARKWAY WERE SEVERELY IMPACTED…WITH ONE ROOF COMPLETELY
BLOWN OFF. IN THAT VICINITY…LARGE OAK TREES WERE SNAPPED MID-WAY
UP. JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ONRAMP FROM ROUTE 107 TO ROUTE
16…TREES WERE DOWNED FROM WEST TO EAST. TREES JUST TO THE WEST OF
WILSON STREET WERE DOWNED FROM EAST TO WEST. THIS GAVE A CLEAR
DELINEATION OF THE TRACK OF THE TORNADO…WHICH IS LOW PRESSURE AND
HAS TREES BLOWING IN TOWARD THE TRACK. SOME TREES AND TREE LIMBS
WERE LIFTED UP AND DEPOSITED ON TOP OF HOUSES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
REVERE BEACH PARKWAY.

THE DAMAGE WAS WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTER OF REVERE.
THE TORNADO TRAVELED NORTHWARD…BASICALLY FOLLOWING
ROUTE 107/BROADWAY. AT THE TOWN HALL…WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT AND
THERE WAS ROOF DAMAGE. A LARGE BIRCH TREE WAS UPROOTED THERE.
MORE THAN A HUNDRED HOMES HAD DAMAGE THAT RANGED FROM SIDING TORN
OFF TO PORTIONS OF ROOFS LIFTED OR BLOWN OFF. THERE WERE SEVERAL
STORE SIGNS THAT WERE DESTROYED. DEBRIS FROM HOMES COULD BE SEEN
COLLECTING ON FENCES. TREES FELL ON SEVERAL CARS WITH A FEW BEING
CRUSHED.

THE POLICE REPORTED THAT A CAR HAD BEEN OVERTURNED…TO THE WEST
OF BROADWAY AT THE INTERSECTION OF MALDEN STREET AND CARLSON
AVENUE. THE DAMAGE PATH CONTINUED NORTHWARD TO JUST BEYOND THE
ROTARY AT ROUTE 60. NEAR THAT ROTARY THERE WAS A BILLBOARD LYING ON
TOP OF SEVERAL CARS.

THE TOTAL PATH LENGTH WAS 2 MILES AND THE PATH WIDTH WAS
APPROXIMATELY 3/8 OF A MILE…WITH A SHARP CUTOFF OF THE DAMAGE
JUST EAST OF AMERICAN LEGION HIGHWAY/ROUTE 60.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO EXTEND ITS APPRECIATION
TO OUR NORTH SHORE AND BOSTON SKYWARN AMATEUR RADIO
COORDINATORS…THE MASSACHUSETTS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY
REGION 1 OFFICE…AND THE REVERE POLICE DEPARTMENT FOR HELPING US
TREMENDOUSLY WITH THIS STORM SURVEY.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/BOX.

FOR REFERENCE…THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0…WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1…WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2…WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3…WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4…WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5…WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

$$

FIELD

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo
On Twitter: @tjdelsanto


Sunshine is a Double-Edged Sword

July 28th, 2014 at 1:07 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s nice to have the sun this afternoon, but it really is a double-edged sword.  The sunshine will go to work and help de-stabilize the atmosphere in Southern New England.  This will help any storms that do develop to intensify and maintain their strength.  The satellite photo below shows many breaks in the cloud cover over our area.

vis_mon

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The high-resolution computer models we use are showing a line of showers and thunderstorms moving out of western New England and into our area during the early evening.  This is the HRRR computer model for 6pm this evening.

hrrr_1

Until then, individual storm cells could continue to pop up through the afternoon in our area.  Any storms, whether they are moving through this afternoon or evening, could be strong to severe.  The atmosphere is ripe for these storms to produce very heavy rain, frequent lightning, large hail and damaging wind gusts.  The threat of an isolated tornado remains with us into the evening.  We’ve already had two confirmed tornadoes in Southern New England during the past two days, and the environment remains favorable for a quick twister to spin up.

We encourage you to remain weather aware through the day.  The good news is…the rest of the week looks delightful.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Confirmed Tornado in Revere

July 28th, 2014 at 12:06 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Between 8 and 10am this morning a strong thunderstorm moved out of Northern Rhode Island and to the North Shore of Boston.  Revere was hit hard by what is now a confirmed tornado.  Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar was tracking the storm as it moved from near Woonsocket to Revere this morning.  The storm was not severe as it moved through Rhode Island, but was developing a mesocycolone (a rotation within the storm cloud).

From the report:

“A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED TO HAVE OCCURRED IN REVERE MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING. THE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT IS STILL ONGOING TO DETERMINE ADDITIONAL DETAILS SUCH AS THE MAXIMUM TORNADO INTENSITY…ALONG WITH THE LENGTH AND WIDTH OF THE DAMAGE PATH.”

Amazingly, there were no deaths reported to the Revere or Massachusetts State Police, but a baby was hurt by glass after a tree fell on a car.

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Here are some pictures courtesy of the National Weather Service and Marek Kozubal, a Storm Spotter.  You can see some fairly widespread tree and structure damage with these storms.

Revere_1

Revere_2

Revere_3

Revere_4

Revere_5

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Watching Things Closely This Afternoon

July 28th, 2014 at 11:49 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 11am, Live Pinpoint Doppler Radar was detecting showers and developing thunderstorms to our south, headed toward the coasts of RI and MA.

Radar_Loop_WEB_009

These storms are moving into an area favorable for development…decent instability, favorable wind shear and sunny skies.  In addition, low-level wind shear is favorable for the development of waterspouts and tornadoes.  While the possibility is low for a twister to develop, it’s there.  We encourage you to stay tuned through the afternoon….these storms can develop quickly.

 

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Monday’s Storms…Some Could Be Severe

July 27th, 2014 at 9:55 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 9:30pm on Sunday widespread showers and thunderstorms were moving through Pennsylvania.  This is what we will be watching during the overnight and especially Monday morning.

Storm_Radar_650x366

Multiple computer models indicate this area of showers and thunderstorms will move into New England and expand in areal coverage as it does so.

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Here is the RPM computer model output for 7:30am on Monday morning.

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Storm has Weakened Significantly.

July 27th, 2014 at 8:55 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 8:45pm, that big storm in Connecticut has weakened significantly.  Just a few showers remain in along the CT/RI border.

Storm_Radar3_650x366

This storm was once a towering supercell.  What it looks like now is a sharp contrast between what it looked like at around 5pm.  Here’s a 3 Dimensional look at the storm while it was over Western Massachusetts.  It was a well developed thunderstorm standing up more than 30,000 feet high in the atmosphere.

3d

-Meteorologist T.J. del Santo


Tracking What Was Once a Severe Storm

July 27th, 2014 at 8:27 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Live Pinpoint Doppler Radar was tracking a nasty thunderstorm that moved through northern Connecticut.  It had mesocyclone (rotation) in it and was producing large hail alond with damaging wind gusts.  Trees and power lines were knocked down by this storm.

Storm_Radar2_650x366

This storm has weakened significantly, but some gusty winds and downpours are still possible in western RI during the next 30minutes.

Storm_Radar_650x366

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Funnel Cloud & Possible Tornado Reported

July 27th, 2014 at 4:38 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

4:46pm Update: The National Weather Service in NY has confirmed that a weak EF0 touched down in Wolcott, CT. 

———————————–

As I mentioned in last  night’s blog post, there was the chance for isolated tornado  today.  The biggest threat was in western New England.  Indeed, we saw funnel clouds and a possible tornado today.  Here’s the National Weather Service report regarding a funnel cloud spotted over Springfield, MA which moved to Ludlow, MA.

funnel_text

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In Wolcott, CT a storm chaser caught up with a funnel cloud and captured video of the cloud making contact with the ground as a weak tornado.  He reported a ‘tell-tale roar once the funnel reached the ground.  Here’s a picture of this reported twister and some of the damage near Wolcott High School.  These are from Twitter user @stormtrooperjay

 wolcott_tornado2

wolcott_damage2

 

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Severe Threat Diminishing

July 27th, 2014 at 3:21 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 3pm, we have only a few downpours in RI and nearby MA….mainly over southeast RI.  They are moving eastward into Southeast Massachusetts.

Storm_Radar_650x366

Looking upstream over Connecticut and New York State we are seeing significant clearing in response to dry air settling over that area.  While the sunshine could spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm into the early evening, the severe threat is diminishing. 

 

vis_sat

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Keep a Close Eye on the Weather Sun/Mon

July 26th, 2014 at 11:01 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

During the next two days we will have several chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms could be strong, too.

The Storm Prediction Center has put Southern New England under an area where there is a slight risk of severe weather on Sunday.

day2otlk_1730

The exact timing of these storms is difficult to pinpoint, but there are three main time periods for us:

  • Sunday morning/early afternoon
  • Sunday late afternoon/early evening
  • Monday morning

Round 1: Our first bout of storms comes Sunday morning/early afternoon.  The jet stream will dip down into a favorable position for air to rise over Southern New England.   The jet stream position, along with unstable air in place will allow storms to develop on Sunday morning over New York state and western New England.  These storms will move into RI and nearby MA after 9am and leave by early early afternoon.   The main impacts will be torrential rain, frequent lightning and possibly damaging wind gusts.

rpm2_650x366

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Smoky Skies in Southern New England

July 25th, 2014 at 7:54 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Typically with a wind flow like we had today, we should have very blue skies.  Instead, the skies were pretty hazy.   That haze was from forest fires in northwest Canada!

SKYCAM2_650x366

Above is a picture from our Hurricane Barrier Cam in Providence.   You can see the haze in the sky, but you can also tell it was sunny this evening.

Satellite photos from space clearly show the path of the smoke from Canada into Southern New England.   Notice the dull gray blob over all of New England.  You can trace that smoke back up into central Canada.

Smoke_650x366

The flow of the jet stream (a river of fast moving winds high above in the atmosphere) is from the Arctic Circle directly into Southern New England.

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upaCNTR_300

Now check out this picture from NASA.  This is a high resolution satellite picture of Canada and the northern United States.   You can clearly see the flow of the smoke from the fires in northwest Canada into the Northeast United States.

nasa_smoke

The smoke does not bring any hazards to Southern New England.  I could smell the smoke while outside, but the concentration of smoke particles is not high enough at this time.  There have been instances when smoke plumes from distant fires did cause health concerns for us.  This does not appear to be one of those times; nonetheless, we are monitoring this closely.   If you have a respiratory illness where smoke could bother you, leave your windows shut and turn on the air conditioning.

Also, the added smoke in the sky will cause the sunsets to be more colorful.  The skies usually take on a more reddish color with smoke in them.  So, get your cameras ready!

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

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Tropical Depression #2 Has Formed

July 21st, 2014 at 4:56 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s not too much of a surprise…Tropical Depression #2 has formed in the Deep Tropics.

TD2

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The system has become better organized with thunderstorms organizing around the center of circulation.  TD #2 is expected to continue to move west-northwestward with minimal development.  The National Hurricane Center said that it will be moving over an area of unfavorable water temperatures in the next 2 days.  Also, drier air near the Caribbean Sea will also hinder its development.  Still, it’s a system to watch closely in the coming days.

 

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via Noaa

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 -Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Bertha in the Making?

July 21st, 2014 at 2:27 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

In the central Atlantic Ocean, there is an area of low pressure which could soon become the next tropical storm.  If sustained winds strengthen to at least 39mph, it would be named Bertha.  The National Hurricane Center in Miami said there is a 70% chance that this area becomes a tropical depression. Conditions are favorable for strengthening in the next couple of days.

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via Noaa

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It’s about 1250miles east of the Caribbean.  It’s days away from affecting any land, but it is certainly something to watch as it continues to move westward.

The visible satellite image shows a well defined circulation, and in my opinion, it is probably already a tropical depression and close to a tropical storm.  There are no plans for Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate this area (it’s still pretty far away).   Nonetheless, the National Hurricane Center is advising people in the eastern Caribbean to monitor the situation closely.

vis0-lalo

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

 


A Mostly Dry Weekend

July 19th, 2014 at 8:53 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Despite lots of clouds over Southern New England this weekend, we should stay mostly dry.  High pressure passing to our north and east today will keep us dry through the daylight hours.

 Fcst_Map_650x366

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11am Weather Update

July 16th, 2014 at 11:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As this slow-moving weather system continues to move east, the heaviest of the rain and thus the warnings continue to shift east.

As of 11am, the heaviest of the rain extends from just east of Block Island to New Bedford…heading northeastward.

Daily-Graphic-3_650x366

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Arthur’s Gone….But We’re Always Watching The Tropics

July 5th, 2014 at 8:14 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The remnants of Hurricane Arthur are now over New Brunswick in Canada.  Maine saw quite a bit of rain today from “Post Tropical Storm Arthur.

Arthur_IR_650x366

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So, one named storm down.  The next up is Bertha on this year’s list of names.

Hurricane_Names_650x366

In the Atlantic Basin, there’s really nothing anywhere that would form into a tropical system anytime soon.

Tropics_Wide_650x366

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Hurricane Arthur — 11pm Friday Update

July 5th, 2014 at 12:02 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 11pm Friday evening, Arthur was still a hurricane; although barely.  It was looking pretty ragged in satellite pictures and winds are barely of hurricane strength.

 Arthur_Vis2_650x366

Arthur was about 75miles ESE of Chatham, MA around 11pm and was continuing its rapid pace across the North Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes.  It’s losing tropical characteristics; instead becoming an extratropical or non-tropical storm. 

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Hurricane Arthur 8pm Friday Update

July 4th, 2014 at 7:53 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

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As of 8pm, Hurricane Arthur remains a hurricane with winds of 80mph.  He’s really picking up steam and will pass to the southeast of Nantucket in the next several hours.  Winds are picking up on the Cape and Islands and we’ll likely see a period of gusty winds as well.

 

Arthur_Vis2_650x366

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Arthur 5pm Update

July 4th, 2014 at 5:17 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Arthur losing some intensity…now a 80mph hurricane.  Arthur will pass approximately 50 miles to the southeast of Nantucket early Saturday morning.

Arthur_Radar_650x366

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Flash Flood Emergency for New Beford Area

July 4th, 2014 at 4:44 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A rare Flash Flood Emergency has been issued by the National Weather Service for the New Bedford area.  More than 5inches of rain has fallen since 1pm and a total of 8-10″ is expected before it’s done. 

If you live in a flood prone area, seek higher ground now.  Never cross a flooded roadway.  Travel is not recommended except for fleeing flood waters.

Storm_Radar2_650x366


Arthur Latest: 3-6″ of Rain Now Expected

July 4th, 2014 at 3:29 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Based on radar intensity and what has fallen already, we are now expecting between 3 and 6 inches of rain for our area.  Many areas have already picked up more than 2″ of rain, including New Bedford where there have been numerous reports of flooded roadways.  At one point there was more than 2600 NSTAR customers without power in that city.  Rain will continue to work its way northward through the evening and into early Saturday morning.

Storm_Radar2_650x366

Here’s what to expect the rest of today.

Daily-Graphic-1_650x366

Arthur continues to work its way northeastward and will make its closest approach to Southern New England early Saturday morning — passing about 50miles southeast of Nantucket.

Arthur_Forecast_650x366

 

Here are some links where you can find more information about our local weather and how you can better prepare for severe weather in our area.

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Midnight Update

July 4th, 2014 at 12:22 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of midnight, Arthur was over Cedar Island National Wildlife Refuge in North Carolina.  Winds of 100mph, moving northeast at 18mph.

Arthur_Radar_650x366

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


National Weather Service Statement on Arthur

July 4th, 2014 at 12:04 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

HURRICANE ARTHUR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS…

.NEW INFORMATION…
UPDATED FORECAST INFORMATION DETAILS FOR THE OUTER RHODE ISLAND
COASTAL WATERS…AND THE MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET.

.AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

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Arthur 11pm Update

July 3rd, 2014 at 11:56 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 11pm Thursday, Arthur was near 34.6N 76.6W right over Cape Lookout, NC and 75 miles WSW of Cape Hatteras, NC.    It was moving northeast at 18mph…a significant increase in forward speed.   Winds remain at Category 2 strength…100mph.

Arthur_Radar_650x366

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Arthur Now a Category 2 Hurricane

July 3rd, 2014 at 9:22 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Hurricane hunter aircraft measured winds of 100mph around Arthur….it has now been upgraded to a Category 2 Storm.

On it’s current path, it should make landfall near Morehead City, NC.

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 -Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Hurricane Arthur 8pm Update

July 3rd, 2014 at 8:27 pm by under General Talk

At 8pm, Hurricane Arthur was near 33.8N 77.4W moving NNE at 15mph.  It’s begun that right hand turn and is picking up a little speed as it interacts with a weather system moving through the Northeast United States.  It has winds of 90mph, a Category 1 Hurricane.

Here’s the satellite/radar picture at 8:15pm Thursday evening.  It’s a very well developed storm with thunderstorms completely around the center of circulation. 

 Arthur_IR_650x366

 

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Arthur is still expected to pass to our southeast, but close enough to bring us periods of heavy rain on Friday and a heavy surf Friday through the weekend.

Arthur_Forecast_650x366

 -Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Arthur and the 4th of July — 11pm Update

July 2nd, 2014 at 11:23 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

At 11pm, Tropical Storm Arthur was near 30.6N and 79.1W.  It was approximately 380miles southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC or about 160 miles SSE of Charleston, SC.   It still has winds of 70mph and is moving north at 8mph.

New in the 11pm update: Tropical storm force winds possible for parts of our area…details further below.

Arthur continues to be a well-formed tropical system.  Strong thunderstorms continue to circulate around the center and there is minimal shear (upper-level winds which can tear apart a tropical system).  

 

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During the next 24 hours, Arthur is expected to become hurricane.  It has plenty of warm water to use as fuel for intensification.  Hurricanes can strengthen when water temperatures are 80°F (26.6°F) or warmer. 

 SST

As Arthur moves north, it will intensify, then turn right or northeast as it approaches North Carolina.  It will come very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  

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Arthur Update – 8pm Information

July 2nd, 2014 at 8:04 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

At 8pm Wednesday, Tropical Storm Arthur was at 29.7N 79.1W or about 435 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC and about 220 miles south-southeast of Charleston, SC.  It has winds of 70mph, still just 4mph shy of being a hurricane.  It is moving to the north at 7mph, still fairly slowly.

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via Noaa

 

The convection or showers/t’storms continue to be strongest around the center of circulation.  This will continue to help intensify the storm.  Water temperatures are 80°…plenty warm enough to feed the system for further intensification.

Arthur will continue to move to the north then turn northeast Thursday evening, then pass to our south and east on Friday night and Saturday morning.   Multiple computer models are in agreement that Arthur will avoid a direct hit on Southern New England.  The image below shows the forecast paths of various computer models.

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With a path offshore, we will avoid the wind, but get the rain.  Friday still looks like a washout.

The next National Hurricane Center update is around 11pm.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

On Twitter: @tjdelsanto

 


Arthur Latest – 5pm Wednesday

July 2nd, 2014 at 7:26 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 5pm Wednesday, Tropical Storm Arthur was near 29.7N 79.1W or about 435miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC.  It was moving northward at 7mph.  Sustained winds are of 70mph, just 4mph shy of being a hurricane.

 

Arthur_Vis_650x366

Convection (showers/t’storms) around the center continues to look impressive.  You can see the clumpy white clouds right around the center of circulation on the visible satellite picture above.

In the infrared satellite picture below, where the temperature of the cloud tops is measured, you can see the purples and pinks of the coldest cloud tops around the northern periphery of the storm.

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Arthur is expected to form into a hurricane, possibly by later this evening.  A northward movement will continue before a weather system moving across the Midwest begins to steer Arthur to the northeast.

Arthur_Forecast_650x366

 Live Pinpoint Doppler 12: 7-Day Futurecast | Closings and Delays | WPRI.com Flight Tracker

Hurricane Arthur will pass to our south and east late Friday and early Saturday.  Although we won’t get the winds associated with Arthur, we will see some rain.  Moisture associated with the system will stream along a cold front moving through New England on Friday.

Fcst_Map_650x366

The interaction between the front and moisture will produce occasional rain, possibly heavy at times, through the day on Friday…beginning in the morning and continuing through the evening.  Some thunderstorms are possible, too.  The 4th of July looks like it could be a washout.

Once the front passes through the area, drier air will return for Saturday and Sunday.  However, the hurricane will have stirred up the ocean so much that large waves will be crashing on our shores and dangerous rip currents are possible through the weekend.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo