Northboro, MA: 3.2″
Rocky Hill, CT: 3.2″
Hudson, MA: 3.0″
Southington (Marion section), CT: 3.0″
Smithfield, RI: 3.0″
Dorchester, MA: 2.6″
Dudley, MA: 2.5″
Eastford, CT: 2.5″
Ashford, CT: 2.5″
Hanson, MA: 2.5″
Rocky Hill, CT: 2.5″
Boylston, MA: 2.5″
Danielson, CT: 2.3″
Pomfret, CT: 2.0″
Waltham, MA: 2.0″
Hingham, MA: 2.0″
Holbrook, MA: 2.0″
Charlestown, RI: 2.0″
Warwick, RI: 2.0″
Franklin, MA: 2.0″ (Wind Gust: 33 MPH measured on Kestrel)
Walpole, MA: 2.0″
Hopedale, MA: 1.8″
Wayland, MA: 1.5″
Wrentham, MA: 1.3″
East Walpole, MA: 1.2″
Millis, MA: 1.0″
Everett, MA: 1.0″

Some more historical info for you….this info comes from Cory Pesaturo, a former weather intern here at Channel 12. 
He has worked hard to gather this information.  Thanks Cory! Could his #1 be toppe with this storm? Likely not…but ya never know!!!

Feb. 5-7, 1978 – 50″ 1st Place
Feb. 22-28, 1969 – 36″ 2nd Place
Mar. – Ap. 1, 1997 – 30″ 3rd Place
Jan. 22-23, 2005 – 27″ 4th Place
March 3-5, 1960 – 24″ 5th Place
Dec. 11-12, 1992 – 24″ 6th Place
Jan. 6-8, 1996 – 24″ 6th Place
Feb. 8-10, 1969 – 24″ 6th Place

-T.J. Del Santo

Quick look at the two players in this….

One part of the upcoming storm is a fairly impressive storm in itself.  Widespread snow is falling across the Great Lakes States and there is some very potent energy with this system.  This system will be merging with the other storm you see on the right hand corner of the screen….a process called phasing.  This process is not uncommon.

Satellite and Radar from Thu 9:30pm

A look at the Southern Stream Storm is showing quite a bit of lightning off the Carolina Coast…a sign that this part of the storm packs quite a punch in itself. 

Courtesty Vaisala: Cloud-to-ground lightning

The winner will be the Southern Stream storm. This is the one that will take over and rapidly intensify as it heads to just south of RI by tomorrow night. 

Oh, there is actually is a third and very important part to get a major snow storm…that is a cold area of high pressure to our north.  That is in place too! -tj

Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories for the Blizzard of 2013

We’ve gotten a couple of questions about the possibility of coastal flooding in Narragansett Bay.  While east coastal Massachusetts and Long Island sound will see some coastal flooding at the time of high tide tomorrow evening, Narragansett Bay will not. 

Now with that said, notice the light blue area over southeast CT.  There could potentially be some minor coastal flooding in those areas….including Little Narragansett Bay in Westerly. 

Here’s the tidal gauge info from Quonset Point with a forecasted water level. 

Courtesy NOAA: Tidal Gauge from Quonset Point

And from Conimicut Point in Warwick…

The purple dashed line is the forecast…notice at the peaks (high tide) we are not seeing the line break into the “Minor Flooding” section. At Conimicut the line does get into the “Action Stage”.  There, it’s something to watch, but there’s not enough of a fetch across the bay for the Northeasterly winds to produce a surge/coastal flooding.  Some splashover is possible in spots (Narragansett-Ocean Road), but in general no coastal flooding of any significance is expected.  Again, some minor flooding is possible to the north of Watch Hill in Westerly.

We will be monitoring this and all situations closely.

-tj

 We are expecting the snow to begin in the morning…light at first…but really picking up throughout the afternoon.  The heaviest snowfall will be Friday evening into Saturday morning.  That’s when we could be seeing some snowfall rates of 3-4″ per hour.  Also keep in mind that it will be extremely windy.  There will be a lot of blowing and drifting snow with winds of 40-60mph with some higher gusts.  Be safe. -tj

Here’s how the snow will pile up on Friday: 

How the snow will pile up through Friday…

And now through Saturday beginning with what fell through Friday….

How the Snow will pile up through Saturday beginnig with what feel through Friday

We look at many different computer models to make our forecasts.  To be honest, we leaned our accumulation heavily on the European Computer Model which has shown extraordinary consistency this week.  1 to 2 feet is still expected, but an area of central and Northern Rhode Island could see more than 30″.  We expanded this area to fit with current model trends and climatology.  Keep in mind, there will be a lot of blowing and drifting of the snow through the snow.  Some drifts could be as high as 5 feet.  Without further to-do, here it is…

-T.J. Del Santo

               It was the week Rhode Island stood still.  There were some reports of 4-5 feet of snow with drifts up to 27feet. One hundred people perished, and there was nearly $2 Billion in damage (2012 money).  The Blizzard of 1978 was a catastrophic snow storm for Southern New England…with major effects on Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut. 

Courtesy NOAA: Blizzard of 1978 satellite image showing an eye-like feature near the center.

It developed on February 5th off the Carolina coast, and the first snow flakes began to fall in Rhode Island during the late morning of February 6th.   Children were already in school, and people were already at work.  Once it was realized that this storm meant business, it was too late.  Cars were stranded on the highways with 1,950 cars stranded on Routes 95, 195 and 146 in the Greater Providence area alone.  Many lost their lives from carbon monoxide poisoning when the snow piled up over the tail pipes of cars.  School children were stuck in their schools for days.  One of the saddest stories was from Uxbridge, MA where a little boy went missing for 3 days.  He was found just steps from his front door, buried in feet of snow.

Cars Stuck on Route 95 in Providence

It snowed for an amazing 36 hours!  Providence received nearly 3 feet of snow, while an unofficial report from Lincoln measured nearly 5feet!   Snowfall rates were staggering and showed the intensity this storm packed.  Generally, 2-3″ per hour were observed, but 4inches per hour were measured, mainly where thundersnow was reported.  Despite those snowfall rates, the incredible snow totals were mostly due to the slow movement of the storm.  A very strong area of high pressure to the north of the storm blocked its forward progress, allowing Southern New England to be pummelled with snow and house-rattling winds for an extended period of time.  Providence and Boston both broke 24 hour snowfall records during this storm, each with 27inches.

Courtesy: Boston Globe. A home in Revere, MA destroyed by large waves.

What makes a blizzard different from a regular snow storm is the wind.  The winds howled at hurricane strength  during the ’78storm.  Chatham, Massachusetts had a wind gust of 93mph.   The storm’s verocity was similar to that of a Category 1 Hurricane….except one that moved very slowly.  The storm hit during a New Moon and tides were about 4 feet above normal.  Winds put another 12 feet on top of that! Hundreds of houses along east coastal Massachusetts were destroyed.  In Rhode Island, whipping winds and snow dropped visibilities to zero for many hours.  It was difficult to see where you were going (that’s if you could go anywhere). Once the snow and wind stopped, the governors of Massachusetts, Rhode island and Connecticut declared States of Emergency.  Rhode Island Governor J. Joseph Garrahy activated the National Guard to help clear the snow.  The State was essentially shut down for a week.  While a lot of bad came out of the storm, a lot of good emerged.  Everyone was affected equally and neighbors helped neighbors get through this event.

The Blizzard of ’78 came at a time when weather forecasting was much more difficult.  Computer models had recently emerged, but weren’t timely enough.  With that said, forecasters actually made a good forecast for the Blizzard, but bad forecasts earlier that winter lowered the public’s confidence in the meteorologists’ abilities.  For what it’s worth, even if public confidence was high, no one could have expected or been ready for what actually happened.

In 2013, computer models are much more sophisticated, and we get the information in a much more timely manner than they did in the late 70′s.  The emergence of the Internet has allowed meteorologists to use computer models from around the world including Canada, Great Britain and Japan.  Forecasts and possible impacts have become much more accurate during the past 35 years and that accuracy will only continue to improve with the emergence of better computer models. -T.J. Del Santo

Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar

Some light snow beginning to work into Rhode Island could create some slickspots on area roads.  Ocean Effect snow bands are reaching across Bristol County, MA and into the East Bay of RI.  Also, Northern Rhode Island is seeing some light snow, including Woonsocket, Cumberland and Burrillville.  Some slicks spots are possible on area roadways.  Be careful while driving this evening.  -tj  

Light snow collecting on the Rhode Show ride in East Providence, RI

As I’m typing this quick blog, the temperature in East Rutherford, NJ is 26°F with partly cloudy skies.  Yes, that’s where they are playing the next SuperBowl.  Now THAT is football weather.  My pick for this year’s game is the 49′ers by 14.  More importantly, my outlook for the 2014 SuperBowl is Patriots over the 49′ers 30-27….AND there will be accumulating snow during the game: 6-8″ in northern New Jersey with a strong northeast wind and temps in the upper 20′s.  I’m going to tuck this forecast away and see how it pans out. -tj

The latest round of model information is into the Forecast Center regarding the snow Monday Night and Tuesday.    I didn’t change the forecast too much from our earlier forecasts.  This particular weather setup can be difficult to forecast.  Bands of snow often setup, and snow totals can vary greatly over relatively small geographical areas.  This will happen, and the worst will be over Eastern Massachusetts.  In fact, that’s where there is a Winter Storm Watch in effect (as of 11pm Sunday).

Rhode Island and Bristol County, MA will see some accumulating snow, just not as much as E’rn Mass.  In the Winter Storm Watch area, it’s possible to see spots of 8″ or more.  It’s a fairly progressive storm, meaning it won’t be snowing too long, but still big accumlutions are possible in spots.  Here’s what I’m expecting…not much difference from what Pete Mangione was forecasting earlier today.

Like last week, it’s not expected to be a blockbuster storm for us, but the timing is bad:  right before the morning commute and the start of the school day.  Look for more school delays this time.  In fact, time-wise, here’s how it should all play out. 

Again, this situation is difficult to forecast and we encourage you to stay tuned to further forecasts through the day on Monday.

-T.J. Del Santo

One snow storm down….MAYBE another early Friday.  Here’s a look back at some of the snow totals from this past storm which began early Wednesday morning:    RHODE ISLAND

…BRISTOL COUNTY…
   BARRINGTON                      3.0   749 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   BRISTOL                                 2.0   730 AM  1/16  BROADCAST MEDIA

…KENT COUNTY…
   WEST WARWICK                3.8  1149 AM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   WEST GREENWICH            3.5   648 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   2 NNW WARWICK              2.8  1252 PM  1/16  TF GREEN AIRPORT

A snow measurement in Cumberland, after the snow settled a bit. Courtesy Cory Pesaturo

…PROVIDENCE COUNTY…
   CUMBERLAND                    5.0   131 PM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH SCITUATE             4.2   930 AM  1/16  LAW ENFORCEMENT
   PROVIDENCE                      4.2   910 AM  1/16  FEDERAL HILL
   WEST GLOCESTER             4.1   251 PM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH FOSTER                 4.0   810 AM  1/16  CO-OP OBSERVER
   BURRILLVILLE                4.0   807 AM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   CRANSTON                         4.0   920 AM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   PAWTUCKET                      3.9   800 AM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   EAST PROVIDENCE        3.8   900 AM  1/16  EMERGENCY MANAGER
   GREENVILLE                    3.8  1222 PM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   FOSTER                                3.5   712 AM  1/16  PUBLIC

…WASHINGTON COUNTY…
   NORTH KINGSTOWN        2.6   715 AM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   SOUTH KINGSTOWN        2.0   632 AM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER

 MASSACHUSETTS

 …BRISTOL COUNTY…
   ATTLEBORO                            4.1   843 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   MANSFIELD                          3.5   850 AM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   TAUNTON                              3.2   930 AM  1/16  NWS OFFICE
   NORTH ATTLEBORO          3.2   745 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   NORTON                                 3.1   700 AM  1/16  CO-OP OBSERVER
   DIGHTON                             2.9   900 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   REHOBOTH                          2.8   645 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   ASSONET                              2.0  1058 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   ACUSHNET                          1.7   820 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   NEW BEDFORD                  1.0   824 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO

Snow in Scituate, RI where about 3″ of snow fell.

 …NORFOLK COUNTY…
   FOXBORO                            5.0   800 AM  1/16  CO-OP OBSERVER
   WALPOLE                           4.0   909 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   BROOKLINE                       4.0   945 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   MILLIS                                3.6  1030 AM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MILTON                              3.5  1007 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   WEYMOUTH                     3.3   842 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   WESTWOOD                      3.0  1154 AM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   FRANKLIN                         3.0   800 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   RANDOLPH                        3.0   956 AM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORWOOD                          2.7   700 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   EAST BRAINTREE         1.0   942 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO

We look at a number of computer models to determine how much snow, ice and rain we’ll get…and then we have to think about timing and who will get what.  The best graphical representation of what I feel will play out Tuesday/Wednesday morning is with the RPM model.  I’ll go through some key times for you…starting at 10pm this evening.

This evening will be dry with cloudy skies, so if you have any evening plans…go for it! Looks good!

 The first flakes likely won’t fly until well after midnight.  In fact, as of 7pm, the batch of moisture we are watching is still in the Virginias.  Temperatures will be falling with a northerly wind this evening….as I write this, we have 31° in Glocester and 34° at North Central Airport in Smithfield.  The temperatures in Northern Rhode Island will likely be below freezing once the precip starts.  However, remember that January thaw we just had?  The ground is still pretty warm and initially, the snow may not accumulate.  Eventually, it will.  In southern Rhode Island, temps will likely be above freezing.  Although it could be snowing initially, it won’t likely stick to the ground at the coast at any point during this storm. 

By 6am, the snow should have overspread most of the region and some mixing of sleet/rain is likely at the south coast.  That transition of snow to sleet and freezing rain should continue to work its way northward through the morning commute.  Expect slushy conditions on the roads as snow mixes with the rain.  By 8am….

It looks like the rain/snow line could be moving into Providence around 8am.  With an inch or two of snow on the roads already, this will likely create some slushy conditions.  Expect a slower morning commute on Wednesday….allow yourself a little extra time.  Notice at 8am, the snow is still falling in northern Rhode Island.  Another hour or two of accumulating snow is possible up there before a changeover to rain.

 At noon, the temperatures at ground-level and upper-levels will have warmed enough that a change-over to rain is possible as far north as the RI/MA border.  It is still possible that some freezing rain could be falling in pockets at this time.  Elsewhere, a light rain or drizzle is expected and that will continue for a little while into the afternoon before ending.

The evening commute will likely feature dry skies but the roadways could still be wet and temperatures will be falling, so some icing is likely.

Total accumulations? Generally 2-4″ north and west of Providence.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see a pocket of 5″ amounts in the hilly areas of Burrillville and Foster Glocester.  Ice and rain should keep the accumulations low in the Providence Metro area, but again the morning commute will feature snow, ice and rain. At the coast, I’m not expecting any accumulations at all.

Another round of model data starts coming in around 9pm….be sure to follow me on Twitter @tjdelsanto and Facebook for updates.

-T.J. Del Santo

So, I’m waiting around for the latest round of computer model data to come in…I was really interested to see if I needed to increase my forecasted snow totals for Tuesday night/Wednesday.  Then, my mind wandered to wondering about how much snow we’ve gotten so far this season and where we stand compared to normal.  Thennnnn…I wondered where this season stands compared to recent seasons.  I expected to not see much from last year and a lot from the year before that.  But, putting the 5 seasons on a graph was an interesting exercise.   I calculated the snow accumulations up to January 14th for each season.   Here’s what I found:

The snow accumulations through January 14th for each of the last five winter seasons for T.F. Green Airport.

What this shows is December’s and early January’s were very busy snow-making months for a few years.  Approximately two feet of snow had fallen for three consecutive years to this point.  Then, of course, there was last year when we were snow-starved for the entire winter.  You’ll notice that this year, we have 11″ of snow to date.  That is about 3″ below normal….but a LOT closer to normal compared to the last 4 years.

Looking ahead, the weather is only going to get colder for the rest of the month,  and more than likely the snow will pile up at some point. 

I asked myself about what this graph really means.  I’m not really sure.  It’s likely too small of a sample to read anything into it, but it likely correlates to large scale weather patterns.  I’ll have to look into it more.  For now, it’s interesting.

-T.J. Del Santo

That’s a typical headline for Southern New England.  As Mark Twain put it, “if you don’t like the weather in New England, wait 5 minutes and it will change”.  That’s the truth!

While Monday’s warmth wasn’t a record breaker, it was a nice treat! The spring-like temperatures are gone for now, however.  In fact, Monday night/Tuesday morning will feature some sleet mixing in with the rain.  That should clear by 7-8am on Tuesday.

A more important storm will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday.  The computer models have been fairly consistent during the last day and a half about some type of precipitation Tue night/Wed.  One computer model (GFS) continues to show more in the way of rain than snow. The others we look at (NAM, RPM, European and Canadian) show more in the way of frozen precipitation. 

Timing
The snow should begin to overspread the area around midnight and become fairly steady during the morning commute.   Most areas should be seeing some snow, but coastal communities may see many hours of sleet and rain, especially during the day on Wednesday.

How Much?
Right now, it looks like generally 2-4″ of snow will fall north and west of Providence, with lesser amounts toward the coast.  See the accumulation map below

Be sure to check back with Pete.  He will be in on Tuesday morning and at noon. I’ll be back in on Tuesday night with the latest information.

-T.J. Del Santo

 According to the National Climate Data Center, 2012 was the warmest year on record for the United States, blowing away 1998 by 1°F.  It was also the 15th driest year on record. Another important point in the State of the Climate report, 2012 was the second most extreme weather year on record.  Last year was second only to 1998. 

A tornado in Cherokee, OK

On a local level, Providence had its second warmest year on record.  Six out of the 12 months were in the top 10 warmest months since 1905, when weather records started being kept.  March, alone, was the 3rd warmest on record at TF Green Airport where weather information for Providence is recorded.  However, the big cities surrounding Rhode Island’s capitol had their warmest year on record in 2012:  Boston, Worcester and Hartford.

In the report from the NCDC, the news wasn’t all bad.  Tornado activity was below average and at its lowest in the country since 2002.  Tornadoes need large contrasts in airmasses to form.  The scorching heat and devastating drought in the middle of the country shows the lack of contrasting airmasses in Tornado Alley.  Weather patterns were not favorable for a busy tornado year.  The jet stream, which guides air and storm systems around the globe, stayed too far north for tornadoes to develop in large numbers.

House falling into the water along the Rhode Island coast during Hurricane Sandy

Tropical Activity in the Atlantic was above normal.  Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.  In that time, we had 19 named storms and 10  hurricanes.  Of course Hurricane Sandy, which has gotten the label of a “Superstorm”, struck in late October.   Some look to climate change for Sandy’s unusual path of turning west into New Jersey when typical October storms are guided out to sea.  The loss of sea ice in the Arctic, in some reports, is to blame for the unusual Autumn atmospheric block in the North Atlantic.   

Despite the mild temperatures this week, we’ve had a pretty average start to the year.  I wonder what 2013 will bring. 

-T.J. Del Santo

Outside of a little dip in the temperature on Monday, we are going to be seeing some above-normal temperatures through next weekend.

A cold front will push through our area overnight, bringing with it some cooler air.  Tomorrow (Monday) will be the coolest day of the week.  High pressure behind the front will be sliding to our south.  The winds on the back side of the high will usher in warmer air into the region beginning on Tuesday.  From Tuesday on, we’ll see above normal temps.

Warming trend for the week ahead

While it looks like it’ll be warm all week, there is the chance for some rain on Friday.  Then, looking ahead to next Sunday and the big game in Foxboro, there are some indications that temps could be 55-60° at game time!  Below is the GFS computer model which shows the warm air through the Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England.  The green/yellow is 55-60°F

GFS Computer Model Showing Warm Air Up and Down the East Coast at 7pm, Sunday, January 13

It’s a long way away, but certainly worth watching.  It looks like there will be a cold front pushing through the Northeast on Sunday.  For now, it looks like the rain will stay to our west through the Divisional Playoff Game; however these computer models are notorious for not seeing the correct timing of fronts 5-7 days out.  We’ll be monitoring this closely.

Have a super week! -T.J. Del Santo

The National Weather Service released a preliminary report on 2012 and for some major Southern New England cities, it was a record breaker.  Boston, Worcester and Hartford all had their warmest year in 2012.  Providence had its second warmest year on record. 

For Providence, it was really the first half of the year that did it.  Both Winter and and Spring were more than 4°F above average, while Summer and Fall were pretty close to normal. 

You may remember how dry it was in the winter and spring, too.  February was especially dry, infact it was the 5th driest on record with only 1.49″ of liquid precipitation.  We were in a drought for awhile in the spring before some summer rains helped us out.  The year’s precipitation deficit turned out to be about 6″ below normal.    In fact, all the major Southern New England Cities had a dry year.

Here’s the Providence info from the National Weather Service if you’d like to dig into the numbers a little more. -T.J> Del Santo

            …PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT…

       AVG HIGH  AVG LOW  AVG MEAN  PCPN  SNOW  REMARKS
       ——–  ——-  ——–  —-  —-  ——-

JAN:      43.1     25.0     34.1    3.40  10.7
          +5.7     +4.0     +4.9   -0.46  +1.7

FEB:      45.6     26.8     36.2    1.49   4.6  6TH WARMEST
          +5.3     +3.2     +4.2   -1.80  -3.9  5TH DRIEST

MAR:      56.1     36.5     46.3    1.31   0.2  3RD WARMEST/4TH DRIEST
          +8.3     +6.5     +7.4   -3.70  -5.3  3RD LEAST SNOWIEST

APR:      62.0     40.8     51.4    3.50   0.0  6TH WARMEST
          +3.4     +1.2     +2.3   -0.86  -0.6

MAY:      69.8     53.2     61.5    4.24   0.0  6TH WARMEST
          +1.4     +4.6     +3.0   +0.69   0.0

JUN:      75.4     57.6     66.5    5.02   0.0
          -2.1     -0.8     -1.5   +1.38   0.0

JUL:      84.8     65.8     75.3    2.74   0.0  10TH WARMEST
          +2.0     +1.6     +1.8   -0.55   0.0

AUG:      82.7     64.7     73.7    3.97   0.0
          +1.3     +1.5     +1.4   +0.37   0.0

SEP:      72.8     55.4     64.1    5.43   0.0
          -1.4     +0.1     -0.6   +1.51   0.0

OCT:      64.7     47.7     56.2    3.63   0.0
          +1.4     +3.8     +2.6   -0.30   0.0

NOV:      50.1     33.9     42.0    0.91   1.3  7TH DRIEST
          -3.1     -1.8     -2.5   -3.60  -0.2

DEC:      45.7     31.0     38.4    5.55   9.3  TIED FOR 8TH WARMEST
          +3.4     +4.7     +4.1   +1.33  +0.6

SEASONAL SUMMARY
—————-

WINTER:   45.8     27.1     36.5    8.84  15.3  2ND WARMEST
          +5.8     +3.5     +4.7   -2.53 -10.9

SPRING:   62.6     43.5     53.1    9.05   0.2  3RD WARMEST
          +4.4     +4.1     +4.3   -3.87  -5.9  3RD LEAST SNOWIEST

SUMMER:   81.0     62.7     71.8   11.73   0.0
          +0.4     +0.7     +0.5   +1.20   0.0

AUTUMN:   62.5     45.7     54.1    9.97   1.3
          -1.1     +0.7     -0.2   -2.39  -0.2

ANNUAL SUMMARY
————–

ANNUAL:   62.7     44.9     53.8   41.19   26.1  2ND WARMEST
          +2.1     +2.4     +2.2   -5.99   -7.7

RECORDS
——-
01/12…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.54…PREVIOUSLY 1.14 IN 1915
01/21…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…7.6…PREVIOUSLY 6.6 IN 1976
02/29…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…0.70…PREVIOUSLY 0.31 IN 1968
02/29…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…3.3…PREVIOUSLY 2.3 IN 1964
03/12…RECORD HIGH…72…PREVIOUSLY 70 IN 1973
03/19…RECORD HIGH…73…PREVIOUSLY 69 IN 2010
03/22…RECORD HIGH…81…PREVIOUSLY 74 IN 1948
04/22…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.59…PREVIOUSLY 1.43 IN 2000
04/23…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.60…PREVIOUSLY 1.44 IN 2006
06/25…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.34…PREVIOUSLY 1.14 IN 2006
11/06…RECORD LOW…24…PREVIOUSLY 25 IN 1951
11/07…RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL…1.3…PREVIOUSLY T IN 2010

While the snow may look pretty on the trees and roads, the weight of the snow will be a hazard overnight and through the day on Sunday. 

Winds will be increasing from the northwest through Sunday.  Sustained winds of 15-25mph are likely, but gusts between 35-45mph could easily snap already weighted-down tree limbs and power lines.  Isolated power outages are possible on Sunday (there have already been a few across RI and MA this evening).

Remember the common sense stuff: if you see a power line down, assume it is live and call the electric company and or police/fire.

Also, it’s a heavy, wet snow and difficult to move….be careful while shoveling.

Enjoy the snow on Sunday!

-T.J. Del Santo

We’re getting reports of 11″ of snow from Burrillville to Foster to Coventry.  With a few more hours of (lighter) accumulating snow, expect a foot of snow in this area.  Half of this snow fell between 7 and 10pm when a band of moderate to heavy snow created snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour.  That band has shifted into SE MASS and only lighter snow expected through the rest of the night.  -tj

8:15pm Update: 

5.3″ in Glocester….
and reports of thunder snow in Niantic, CT…near New London.  That’s a sign of some intense snow in that area….

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Snow totals so far:

• Coventry 5.0″
• West Greenwich 4.5″
• Cranston 4.3″
• East Greenwich 3.0″
• Wakefield 3.0″
• Warwick 2.0″
• North Smithfield 2.3″
• Narragansett 1.8″

We continue to see some sleet and rain mixing in along the south coast of RI and MA.  Eastern Coast of Massachusetts continues to see mainly rain.  I think even that rain will turn to all snow a little later in the evening.

Still expecting a general 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts inland.

-T.J. Del Santo

This storm is beginning to rapidly intensify to our south, which is expected.  The impacts on Southern New England are many…especially with travel as visibility and road conditions will be rapidly deteriorating.

This is from the National Weather Service in Taunton:

 IMPACTS…SNOW WILL QUICKLY ACCUMULATE AND UNTREATED ROADS WILL
  BECOME SNOW COVERED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POOR. IN
  ADDITION…A SWATH OF WET SNOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW DOWNED TREE
  LIMBS AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND
  SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.

Drive carefully….or better yet, stay home. (Sorry Restaraunts…I know it’s usually a busy night for you).

-T.J. Del Santo

While the snow has begun to overspread Southern New England, the Storm Prediction Center (a division of the National Weather Service) is saying that snowfall rates could exceed 1″ per hour. We are expecting 4-5hours of moderate to heavy snow through the evening.  Here’s their discussion: Mesoscale Discussion.  -tj

Storm Predicion Center’s Depiction of Today’s Storm

Right now, we are expecting a plowable snow for Southern New England.  The highest amounts could be concentrated in RI and parts of Bristol County, MA.  Here’s the timeline:

• First flakes by early afternoon
• Snow becomes steadier and heavier through the late afternoon and especially during the evening.
• Snow ends early Sunday morning

The impacts could be many.  Travel will become difficult in the evening as visibilities will be occasionally dropping in periods of moderate to heavy snow.  Roads could become quickly snow covered in the evening, and the roads could become dangerous…especially untreated roadways.

How much should you expect? Generally 3-6″ is expected across the area…maybe a little less near the coast where rain and some sleet could mix in…1-3″ there.  What we will have to watch out for is the development of a coastal front where cold air bumps up against milder ocean air.  This could enhance snow fall in inland areas…northern RI and inland Bristol/Norfolk Counties in Massachusetts.

Here’s my latest thinking…..

 These numbers are highly track dependent.  We will be monitoring the track of the storm closely.  More info will be pouring into the weather center after 9pm…be sure to check back for updates!

-T.J. Del Santo

That’s a lot of  “ch’s” in that title!

Interesting weather graphics below and a not-so-nice outlook for the next 60 years. 

The first graphic shows the chances of us having a White Christmas based upon data from 1961 to 1990. 
We use 30 years of data to create a climate, or the average weather for an area.  Specifically, Providence has a 37% chance of having 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.  That is what is considered a White Christmas.  Northwest Rhode Island has a 40-60% chance of a White Christmas in this time period.

Chances for a White Christmas from 1961-1990.

Now, the latest information from NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is below:

Chances of a White Christmas based upon data from 1981-2010.

You’ll have to look closely, but all of Rhode Island now has a 25-40% chance of 1inch of snow on the ground on December 25th.  The data set from 1961-1990, you’ll remember, had a 40-60% chance of a White Christmas.   So our chances of a White Christmas are dropping.

Moreover, just released this week, a report from the University of Massachusetts at Amherst says our winters will be warmer and wetter by 2070. …lessening our chances of White Christmases for years to come.

By the way, it’s not looking good for a White Christmas for us this year….I’d say less than a 10% chance right now. 

-T.J. Del Santo

Planning a trip to Grandma’s house for Thanksgiving? Or a flying out of or into Southern New England this week? The weather will cooperate!

We were monitoring an ocean storm during the past week or so.  While it has developed, all of the computer charts I have been looking at are indicating the effects of the storm (wind and rain) will stay offshore.  During the storm’s closest approach to Southern New England on Wednesday, we may see some extra clouds, but that’s it…at least that’s how it appears for now!

-T.J. Del Santo

Roy Carpenter’s Beach was hit hard by Sandy.  Some cottages were swept away into the water, others had significant damage.  Of course, they are keeping a watchful eye on this current nor’easter.  Below is a picture at around high tide on Wednesday afternoon.  The water was not quite reaching one of the damaged homes.  Hopefully, the water retreats without any more damage.

Let’s be clear, this next storm will impact Southern New England with strong winds and periods of heavy rain.  However, there may be a period of snow for some areas….  Here is a collage of 6 differenct computer model outputs of accumulated snow.  We are looking at them all carefully, but it shows how challening a snow forecast can be…even minor snow events like this one.  It looks like we could see some snow initially Wednesday-Wednesday night before a changeover to all rain.  How much? There’s the potential for up to 2inches in the northwest hills of Rhode Island before rain takes over.  Nothing is carved in stone, so stay tuned! Tony may have his first snow accumulation tonight! -T.J. Del Santo

Snowfall Accumulations: NAM, GFS, RPM, VividCast, Adonis and Microcast computer models from 8am Tuesday.

Whether you are Republican, Democrat, Green Party, Tea Party or just like to party, there will be good weather to get out and vote on Tuesday.  High pressure will keep our weather quiet Monday and Tuesday.  Morning temperatures will be pretty chilly (around freezing), but afternoon highs will be in the 40′s.

Election Day Futurecast for Southern New England

 Nationally, the weather will be pretty good! Especially in six of the eight swing states Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada, the weather won’t be an impact.  In Wisconsin and Flordia, precipitation could play a minor role.  In Wisconsin, some rain mixing with snow showers could scare a few voters away.  In Florida, an area of low pressure coming out of the Gulf of Mexico will bring some rain to the northern two-thirds of the state.  This is the same low which will develop into a strong coastal storm late Tuesday and bring us a period of wind/rain Wednesday into Thursday. 

So, bottom line, most of the country looks fine on Election Day…we’ll just have to watch Wisconsin and Florida closely.  What did Tim Russert say? Florida, Florida, Florida!

Make sure you vote!

-T.J. Del Santo

 Sandy remains a hurricane, making a slight turn to the north with winds of 75mph with higher gusts.  Sandy now approximately 445miles to the SSE of Providence at 35.2N 70.5W.

Over the next 6hours or so, we expect Sandy to continue moving northward, followed by a turn to the northwest.

Indications are that Sandy will make a landfall over NJ.  We encourage you to stay tuned to further forecasts as Sandy is still expected to have a major impact on S’rn New England with damagaing wind gusts and possibly major coastal flooding.

-tj