Tony Petrarca

Rainstorm Moves Out…Hints Of Spring Returns.

March 31st, 2014 at 7:00 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

After 3 to 6 inches of soaking rains the last 3 days,  this storm will be moving out Tonight. Rivers and streams continue to be swollen with minor flooding. The only river with moderate flooding this evening is the Pawcatuck river in Westerly. Water levels will drop slowly next 24 hours. Drier air Tonight with much improved weather Tuesday.

A look back at the flooding this weekend….the “physical state” of the ground played some part in the flooding. The “sub-soil” is still semi-frozen (hard packed ground). The soil is not soft and porous like it is in late Spring and Summer. Bottom line, the soil has a difficult time absorbing the rain….net results are standing water and more runoff. Unfortunately some baseball fields are still soggy. However, drier air next several days will help out….next chance of rain arrives Friday Night into Saturday morning…..Tony Petrarca

flooded field

 


Storm Will Bring Rain For Most Of Weekend….

March 28th, 2014 at 7:02 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

Most of weekend looks wet, however it will stay dry most of Saturday morning. A developing storm this evening  over Texas will tap into some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That storm will track towards our area Saturday evening and into Sunday and Monday.  Storm will be off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday Night bringing heavier rain to Southern New England . Our RPM computer model (below) is hinting at 2 to 3″ of rain with isolated  4 inch amounts possible.

Storm Position Saturday Night

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Rain Amounts From RPM Model….Rain Totals By Sunday 6PM

rpm rain amountys


Snow And Wind Late Tonight, Wednesday Morning…

March 25th, 2014 at 6:44 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Eevning from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…here is the latest  developing Nor’easter offshore…

>It still  looks like most of our area (except Cape and Islands) will miss the brunt of this storm.

> Still some snow and strong wind however after midnight thru Wednesday morning

> Stong winds, gusting 40-50 mph for Rhode Island….50-70 mph for Cape and Island

> Morning commute will be slow

> Drier weather moves in by Wednesday Afternoon

Updated Accumulation Forecast

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Latest Wind Advisories and Warnings

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Winter Storm Tue. Night Into Wednesday Morning

March 24th, 2014 at 7:05 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

Here is the latest thinking….of all the Winter storms this season, we are most cautious with this next one….why?

The storm is expected to be very intense with the the worst of the snow and damaging wind confined to Cape Cod and Islands and just offshore. However a slight shift in storm track closer to coast would bring more of a significant impact from New Bedford to Providence….bottom line…stay tuned. Below is our snowfall forecast by Wednesday Noon. Notice the 6 to 10 inch forecast for the Cape is only 50 to 70 miles away from Rhode Island.  Any shifts in the storm track further west will make a big difference.

Tony Petrarca…..live updates on Fox Providence at 10pm and Channel 12 Eyewitness News at 11pm

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“Flash Freeze” Overnight

March 12th, 2014 at 6:54 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Eveving from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Rapid and significant weather changes ahead next 6 to 18 hours.  Intensifying storm over cental  Pennsylvania  will move thru this evening and overnight. The storm is moving along a very sharp boundry between  mild and cold air. Take note of the temperatures as of 6pm across the northeast. Initially we are on the mild side of this storm with plain rain this evening. As the storm moves away, strong northwest winds late Tonight into Thursday will drag down much colder air over Upstate New York and northern New England. Very rapid temperature drops later Tonight will create a “flash freeze”. Wet surfaces like roads will have a glaze of ice (car wind shields too,car locks).  Also rain will change to snow showers. Large amounts of snow unlikely, however, a coating to 1 inch of snow will fall on top of the layer of black ice. The net result will be very slippery  travel on untreated surfaces by early Thursday morning……Tony Petrarca

Large Temperature Contrast This Evening

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 a1Mild With Plain Rain First Part Of Tonight

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                

Rapid Temperature Drop Midnight Thru Dawn Thursday

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Spring Weather? Not Yet.

March 3rd, 2014 at 11:23 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

From chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca..

As of this writing (11:05pm) temperatures are already in the single digits and still falling.  A very cold day ahead for Tuesday. Single digits early morning, only upper 20s by afternoon. Some light snow showers on Wednesday, but its not from a direct storm impact, but rather a shift in wind direction…

Cold east- northeast winds on Wednesday will pick up some Atlantic moisture . The net result  will be light “ocean effect” snow showers. Best chance across southeastern Massachusetts…but parts of Rhode Island will see snow showers too. Amounts are will be very minimal, with a coasting to half inch in spots.  Low clouds will keep temperatures in the 30s.

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Potholes….Weather Is A Big Factor, And The Physics Of Water

February 24th, 2014 at 10:08 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca:

Potholes occur when snow and ice melt as part of New England’s  seasonal freeze-thaw cycles…Thaws during the afternoons and freeze late at night.

1. The resulting water then seeps beneath the pavement through cracks caused by the wear and tear of traffic.

2. As the temperatures cool to freezing at night, the water becomes ice and expands below the pavement, forcing the pavement to rise and buckle.

3. As the weight of traffic continues to pound on this raised section – and the temperatures once again rise above freezing – a shallow divot (air pocket or space) occurs under the surface and the pavement breaks, forming a pothole. A pothole is typically fixed by cleaning out the loose debris and filling it with hot and cold asphalt patch…

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 Ofcourse the holes are difficult to see at night…especially if they are filled with water. What looks like a harmless puddle ends up being a  large hole.

Local Pothole Photos

Report A Pothole

 How To Get Paid Back For Damages


Winter Returns Next Week….

February 21st, 2014 at 7:23 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Temperatures anomolies for next  6 to 10 days not very promising for milder weather….despite nice temperatures this weekend, a bitter shot of cold air will pour out of Canada next week. The core of that chill arrives here Thursday and Friday..meanwhile the potential for some light snow Sunday Night, and perhaps a more important snow for mid week Wednesday….stay tuned. Meanwhile this evening’s thunderstorms have moved out…watch for areas of fog….some black ice possible much later Tonight into dawn Saturday, but milder by Saturday afternoon….Tony Petrarca

 

 

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Minor Street Flooding, Some Black Ice Overnight…

February 19th, 2014 at 6:55 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….

Rain from this afternoon and evening will produce minor localized street flooding in some neighborhood streets this evening. Combination of rain, snowmelt and clogged storm drains will create standing water. Also watching the temperatures. A slow drop Tonight, falling below freezing, first early this evening in far northern suburbs, and then lastly along the shore. Untreated wet pavement, puddles and slush will re-freeze later Tonight thru dawn Thursday. However a rapid warm up is likely Thursday, with afternoon highs in mid 40s….

Tony Petrarca

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Storm Moves Out. Watching For “Re-Freeze” Tonight

February 18th, 2014 at 6:47 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….

Today’s storm continues to move away with drier air working in. The concern now is falling temperatures. Wet surfaces, slush and puddles will freeze Tonight. Untreated wet pavement/roads will turn to black ice.  Allow extra travel time and some caution tonight thru dawn Wednesday. Some icy conditions early Wednesday morning, however temperatures by afternoon will recover to at least 40 degrees

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How much snow fell??….state wide amounts in most locations ranged from 2 inches on the low end,  to 5 inches on the higher side. We did have two reports of 6 inches in Burrillville and Pawtucket. The higher amounts were in our northern suburbs

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Burrillville..Pawtucket: 6″…..Coventry: 5.5″…..Cranston 5″……E. Providence:  5.5″

Attleboro: 5″…..Federal Hill Providence: 4″….Portsmouth: 3″


Minor Snow Accumulations Tuesday…

February 17th, 2014 at 11:55 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….

Updated snow amounts for Tuesday…..

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SNOW AMOUNTS BY 6PM TUESDAY….. Minor accumulations on Tuesday….snow starts just after 10am and will be heavy at times from noon to 4pm. Some sleet and rain mixing in south of Providence….about  1 inch of slush along the south shore…..2-3 inches inland, with amounts up to 4 inches confined to the higher elevations of northwest Rhode Island…..snow quits by early evening. Since the storm is a quick mover….high snow amounts not expected, BUT, certainly enough snow to impact afternoon and early evening travel

Tony Petrarca


Tuesday Snow Update….

February 17th, 2014 at 7:04 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Despite more snow Tuesday….a major storm and excessive snowfall is unlikely. Amounts will range from “minor” in southern suburbs and coast, to borderline “moderate” amounts in our northern areas. Early morning commute looks dry as the snow does not move in until after 10am…..early evening commute will be slow as the snow and sleet extends thru 5-6pm.  The storm is a quick mover and should be completely gone by 8pm. Most of the precipitation will be in the form of wet snow. I do expect coastal areas to mix with some sleet and rain for a time and as a result, snow amounts there at a minimum…an inch of slush right along the shore from Westerly to Newport and New Bedford. Snow will come down briefly heavy from 12pm to 4pm away from the coast. Visibility will be reduced and untreated roads will not take long to get some slushy accumulations on them. Allow for extra travel time Tuesday afternoon and early evening…..another blog update later this evening

Tony Petrarca

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Snow Amounts By 7PM Tuesday….

 

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Late Night Update: Nor’easter Saturday Night.

February 15th, 2014 at 12:33 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good morning (12:25am Saturday) From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca:

New data coming in still points to a rapidly intensifying coastal storm  (Nor’easter) Saturday Night. Despite a brief rain snow mix at start, this storm should be all snow for our area. Unlike the last storm where highest snow totals were found the further north and west ….highest snow amounts this time around will be south east Massachusetts. However, even in Rhode Island a moderate snowfall is likely along with powerful wind gusts at the coast (45-60 mph)

1. Snow starts around 2PM

2. Heaviest snow from 5pm to 11pm Saturday (rates of 1 inch per hour, especially Southeast Mass.)

3. Snow ends around 1 am Sunday…bit later in Massachusetts

4. Heaviest snow Southeast Mass.

5. Powerful Northeast winds 20-30 mph…gusting 45-60 mph. Isolated power outages possible

6 Should storm track be further offshore, amounts will end up lower….if storm tracks closer to coast, the  8-12 inch area would move     closer to Providence metro area…..bottom line…stay tuned

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Snow amounts by late Saturday Night……

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Winter Storm Warning Saturday Evening, Night.

February 14th, 2014 at 7:17 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…..

Storm system across the Ohio River Valley will emerge off the Mid-Atlantic coast and intensify rapidly just to the south of  our area Saturday Night. The net result are increasing winds and snow.

Here’s what we know based on new data coming into the Pinpoint Weather Center:

. Weather starts dry Saturday morning

.  Snow Rain mix arrives mid to late afternoon, changing to all snow just after dark.

Heaviest snow from 6PM to around 1AM Sunday (worst of storm )

.  Storm will strengthen rapidly once offshore, so winds will increase to 40-50 mph in gusts at coast

. Heaviest bands of snow will set up across southeast Massachusetts. Snow amounts lessen the further west.

. Snowfall rates for a time will reach 1 inch per hour.

 . Storm is “progressive” it will not slow down or stall. Snow will end just after midnight.

“WILD CARD” to watch for.

  Should the storm intensify closer to the coast, then snow amounts in Rhode Island would need to be raised….at the same time, a storm track that is further offshore means much less snow.  The map below is the curent thinking on snow amounts. New data comes into the weather center around 9pm. Check back with me on FOX Providence at 10PM and on channel 12 Eyewitness News at 11pm to see if the snow accumulation forecast needs to be “tweeked”

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 Tracking moisture across Ohio Valley that will initiate offshore storm

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Snow Amounts By Late Saturday Night

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Storm Impacts For Tonight Thru Dawn…

February 13th, 2014 at 7:48 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Tonight’s nor’easter is centered just offshore and continues to intensify.  Winds winds will gust 40-50 mph along the shore at times. Even seeing some lightning strikes south of  Long Island, an indication of a very dynamic storm system. Additional rain Tonight will produce some localized street flooding

Click here to see a town by town list of how much snow fell Today

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Latest Position Of  Nor’ Easter This Evening (closed circle south of Long Island Is Storm Center

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After snowfall amounts of 2 to as much as 10 inches in northwest Rhode Island….most of this early evening will feature mist drizzle and fog.  A band of heavier rain showers offshore will move in  after 10pm.  There is an area of snow on the back side of the storm across Upstate New York.  Some of that  will pass thru our area very late Tonight, mostly in our northern sububs (Providence points north). An additionl coating to 1 inch of snow possible well after midnight.

Temperatures will fall just below 32 degrees after midnight, towards dawn.  Standing water and slush will freeze by dawn.  Weather early Friday morning will be windy and dry, however some untreated roads will have problems with ice.

 

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Overnight Storm Update….

February 13th, 2014 at 12:35 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Morning  (12:48am) from chief  meteorologist Tony Petrarca

A quick update….doesnt look like we need to change much in our forecast thinking….everything coming together for heavy snow changing to heavy rain and strong wind.

 Snow moves in around 4 to 5am. The snow will become much heavier during the morning commute with snowfall rates of up to 1 inch per hour  reducing visibilities and covering the roads quickly.  Below is a high resolution model called HRRR. The flecks of yellow color indicate hourly snow amounts. This map shows 1 inch per hour snows during the 9am hour. Its still looks like the bulk of our snow accumulation  will occur during the morning hours before a change to rain by afternoon. Since the coast will see the change to rain much quicker than northwest Rhode Island, the coast and southern suburbs get less snow 1-3″……with up to 5-8 inches confined to far northwest RI….Providence Metro around 3-6″. How fast…(or slow) the change to rain occurs will dictate the final snow amounts. Once the rain moves in by afternoon, ice clogged storm  drains may result in some street flooding. I just checked latest wind date forecast…still looks like gusts to 40 mph inland Thursday, up to 55 mph near the shore. Will need to monitor possibility of isolated outages by Thursday afternoon and evening……….Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

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SNOW AMOUNTS BEFORE THE CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAINSNOW_Social


Quick Thursday Storm Update…

February 12th, 2014 at 12:32 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

  Good morning from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

  Some minor adustments to snowfall forecast map below…

  Whats On The Agenda?

 . Wet snow starts after 4am Thursday, becomes very heavy for later part of commute.

 . Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible from 7am to 10am Thursday (difficult travel period)

 .  A change to sleet  then rain by noon Thursday, especially south and east of Providence. Rain heavy at times

 . Rain showers early Thursday Night, switching back to snow after midnight Thursday.

.  Winds increasing Thursday afternoon and evening….gusts to 50mph at coast

.  Two periods of accumulating snow. 1st one Thursday morning, the 2nd chance late Thu. Night.

. Back to dry windy weather Friday

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Snows Amounts By Thursday

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Wind Gust Potential In MPH By Late Thursday Afternoon

 

 


Thursday Storm Update…..Snow, Wind (Some Rain Too)

February 11th, 2014 at 7:12 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

Very cold dry weather Tonight will extend into Wednesday Night.  Confidence is high that a strong coastal storm  (Nor’easter) will impact our area on Thursday with heavy precipitation and strong winds.  The complicated part of the forrecast is “Precipitation Type” and how far inland  a rain snow line will move. Hard to believe as cold as it is now, some areas will have their snow Thursday change to sleet and rain for a time, then changing back to snow Thursday Night.  We expect the storm to draw in some milder air off the ocean…this milder air may penetrate all the way into the Providence Metro area.  Heavy snow early Thursday morning  switches to sleet and rain points south and east of Providence, then going back to snow Thursday Night.  The set up favors  higher snow  in northern suburbs…less the further south and east…the early call is for a few inches along the shore and up to 3-6″ inland including the Providence metro area. Any amounts greater than 6 inches will be reserved for far northwest Rhode Island and extending back into Worcester County.

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Watch For Re-Freeze Tonight…

February 5th, 2014 at 7:08 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Keeping an eye on temperatures Tonight as it drops well below freezing….

Slushy areas, puddles and wet surfaces will freeze up Tonight. Untreated surfaces like side roads, walk, driveways, parking lots will turn to solid ice. Meanwhile some light snow showers this evening may coat the ground in spots adding to more slippery potential.

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 What about more snow this weekend???….the map below (Courtesy of WeatherBell) shows an offshore storm clipping our area with more snow Sunday Night…whether or not this will be a “big player” or a niusance, remains to be seen. Still bears close watching.

 

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Wednesday Storm Update….

February 4th, 2014 at 7:32 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

With such a complex weather forecast ahead, certainly check  back 10 10pm on FOX Providence and at 11pm on channel 12 Eyewitness News for updates on snow, sleet and rain totals…

WHAT WE ARE CONFIDENT ABOUT

 . Storm likely Wednesday. (That was easy)

. Will start pre-dawn hours as all snow.

. Significant impact on morning travel

. Snow initially very heavy early (rates of 1 inch per hour at times)

. A transtion to sleet and rain by late morning , early afternoon

. Most snow northwest suburbs…..less snow points south closer to coast.  Bottom line , snowfall amounts are highly location dependent.

THE WEATHER “WILD CARD”

The wild card is the snow changing to sleet and rain….

The transition to sleet, freezing rain and rain is likely, BUT, if it occurs sooner and is more significant…then snow amounts will need to be lowered….now if that transition is weaker and occurs a bit later, then the higher end of our forecast totals  (see ,map below)  will be likely.

For example…the forecast for the Providence Metro Area, Warwick, Cranston is 5 to 8″……this means as little as 5″ could fall to as much as 8″  The final snowfall forecast will go out during our 10pm newscast  on FOX.

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Snow Ends This Evening , Another Storm Wednesday…

February 3rd, 2014 at 7:14 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca

As one storm pulls away….we continue to set our sights on the next one for late  Tuesday Night into Wednesday.  Snowfall amounts Today ranged from 2 to 4 inches with some spots getting up to 5 inches. Snow will ends between 7 and 9pm from west to east. Watch for icy spots  overnight into early Wednesday morning .

Wednesday’ storm has some forecast challanges in terms of precipitation type. The storm will start as  accumulating snow early Weds. morning, then a transition to sleet and rain from south to north….then back to snow as storm ends Weds. Evening.

The maps below shows precipitation type forecasts….Blue is snow…Pink is mixture….Green is rain

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6AM Wednesday….Blue….All Snow

 

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12 NOON WEDNSDAY some mixing south of Providence

 

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2PM WEDNESDAY….SLEET AND SOME WET SNOW…RAIN AT COAST

Based on this precipitation type set up….the most accumulating snow occurs and northern suburbs with less on shore.  The mainly snow zones have the potential to see 6 or more inches of snow..  The extact location and duration of this transition zone of sleet and rain will determine the  final snow amounts….A lot more  data coming in next 24 hours….so we will fine tune amounts and locatons then. Stay tuned.   Tony Petrarca


Monday Snow Update…

February 2nd, 2014 at 10:11 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

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Hi…I will have full blog update shortly but just a quick note that I may (will) change the forecst of “coating to 2″ to a general  1 to 3 inches instead….so a slight increase.

Looking at some of  the new data coming in….again, not a major snowfall Monday, BUT enough to be significant for travel…. just take it slow Monday. More important storm for Wednesday….I will have update after Super Bowl and also on channel 12 WPRI TV at 11pm.   Tony Petrarca

 


Light Snow Accumulations Monday….Watching Wednesday Too

February 2nd, 2014 at 7:42 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Very mild Today as highs soared into the 50s…..however colder air moves in overnight into Monday..

While not a major storm, some snow is likely Monday. Snow starts between 5 and 7am and will extend thru mid afternoon. Accumulations will range from a coating to 2″  by late afternoon.  Just allow a little extra travel time. Snow will end by late afternoon with clearing and colder weather by evening..

 ….Meanwhile confidence continues to grow on a storm for Wedndesday….but the amounts of precipitation and type is still uncertain. Snow is likely…a but a period of sleet, and rain will occupy “part” of the storm. The location and duration of this mixture will dictate how much snow falls….bottom line….stay tuned. My early feeling on this is for a significant impact on Wednesday morning commute. I will have another blog update on this later Tonight….Tony Petrarca

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Stormy Weather Week Ahead…..

February 2nd, 2014 at 2:39 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good  Afternoon from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..

A very active storm track next several days with one minor system Monday and the potential for two significant storms …the late first Tuesday night into Wednesday…..the other  potential comes Sunday.

MONDAY:

A fast moving storm offshore will graze our area with light snow early Monday morning. Amounts will higher  south shore will less in northern suburbs. A coating to 1 inch expected with isolated 2 inch totals near the south shore

TUESDAY NIGHT WEDNESDAY:

A more significant storm arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday and should have more of an impact on the Weds morning commute. This storm is more complicated as far as precipitation type location and duration. While we do expect snow….there will be a mix or changeover potential to sleet and rain. Depending on how significant or not this changeover is will determine our snow amounts. Regardless an impact on travel is likely.

SUNDAY:

With this next system still 7 days out…..all we can say at this point is that the weather pattern is active and there is another potential late next weekend…..of course can’t get too detailed this far out.  Bottom line….stay tuned this week with so many precipitation ( snow ice) chances.


Colder Weather Pattern Locked In For Now

January 23rd, 2014 at 6:36 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Overall Northern Hemisphere/North American weather pattern will continue to favor multiple episodes of very cold air pouring  out of  the Polar regions of northern Canada and into the continental United States.. Temperature anomolies next week and a half, running  well below average (areas shaded in blue). This setup has also brought unseasoanably mild air to Alaska !!  Meanhwhile, we will watch to see if any fast moving storms from Canada (Alberta Clippers ) or offshore storms come close enough for some snow..

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Bands Of Heavy Snow Continue….(7:25pm)

January 21st, 2014 at 7:25 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….

Snowfall rates of 1-2″ per hour will continue this evening…here is the location zone of heavist snow for now…

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Latest snowfall amounts so far. Accumulating quicky !
Franklin, MA: 5.5″
Brockton, MA: 5.0″
Smithfield, RI: 5.0″
Marshfield, MA: 4.6″
Douglas, MA: 4.5″
Tiverton, RI: 4.0″
Brooklyn, CT: 3.8″
Middleboro, MA: 3.5″
Woodstock, CT: 3.5″
Pawtucket, RI: 3.5″
Cranston, RI: 3.5″
Plymouth, MA: 3.5″


Winter Storm Tuesday Night, Early Wednesday.

January 21st, 2014 at 12:32 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Morning from chief meteorologist …yes its early 12: 30am and I’m still in the weather center….just a quick update before I go to bed. TJ will be in shortly.

Offshore storm will impact our area Tuesday Evening, Night and into early Wednesday morning. Latest model runs below are in fairly good agreement on  a moderate snowstorm  here, along with gusty winds and bitter cold…Storm passes south  and east of Cape Cod Tuesday Night. Now with very cold air in place , the storm will transport Atlantic moisture up and over the cold dome of air…net result is moderate to at times heavy snowfall. See previous blog post for accumulations…still looks like a statewide 6-9 inches of snow with higher amounts across coastal southeast Massachusetts. Tuesday morning will be dry with no travel problems. Light snow starts after 2-3pm…turning heavier after 5pm for the Tuesday evening commute. Winds will pick up Tuesday night into Weds. morning producing blowing snow and wind chills at times below zero. Travel becomes difficult Tuesday Night into early Wednesday morning..

                 NAM Model:

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GFS Model

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Canadian Model

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Winter Returns This Week. Snow and Bitter Cold

January 20th, 2014 at 6:57 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Tracking a strong cold front approaching our area this evening….out ahead of it , a line a brief snow squalls will pass thru. The window of concern is from 7pm to 9pm. Visibility reduced briefly. Any wet surfaces from the squalls may freeze into black ice in spots Tonight

(update: as of 747PM..radar shows the squalls have weakened abit)

Meanwhile the main storm system for Tuesday is likely. Winter Storm Warning for Tuesday afternoon thru Weds morning

Tuesday morning  looks fine….light snow moves in by afternoon…but gets heavier by sunset.  The heaviest snow and wind will arrive Tuesday night. Since the air will be very cold, the precpitation will stay as all snow (dry fluffy) with no rain. At this point we are forecasting amounts of  4 to 6″ north and west of Providence, with 6 to 9 inches for the rest of Rhode Island.  However, areas from New Bedford and out towards the Cape and east coastal Massachusetts will see 9 or more inches. These final amounts will be realized by Wednesday morning. Check back for updates…if this coastal storm ends up tracking futher south (further offshore), then snow totals will need to be lowered.  Regardless, we still feel there will be enough snow, wind and bitter cold to impact your late afternoon and evening plans.

tony accums

 

Areas in pink have the Winter Storm Warning from 1pm Tuesday to 1pm Weds…..Areas in light green it is a blizzard watch.  A few hours of blizzard like conditions along  “east coastal”  Massachusetts, the Cape and Islands are possible.

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Cold Air Reloads Next Week

January 17th, 2014 at 6:55 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening..

You may have heard us talk about the “Polar Vortex”  about a week and a half ago. ( Check out TJ’s blog back on Januaty 7th).

What is the “Polar Vortex”?

It’s a circulation around the poles of the Earth in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere – each pole has a polar vortex.  This is cyclone that has been been around for eons…it’s not new despite it becoming a bit of catch phrase in recent days.  It’s a year-round circulation, but it is the strongest in the winter. 

While the main polar vortex remains across the poles…”pieces” of it will  rotate across the southern Canada. In this position, it allows the transport of true Arctic air from the north pole into the lower United States, with the most extreme values across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and sometimes here in New England.  We are seeing that kind of a set up starting Monday Night of next week and extending thru next Friday. Infact, once temperatures fall below freezing Monday Night, we may see a consecutive 100+ hours stretch of sub freezing air.

What about snowstorms?  This kind of pattern can be conducive to coastal storms….but whether or not they form close to us or pass far offshore and miss remains to be seen.

polar vortex

 

 


Long Range Outlook….Colder

January 14th, 2014 at 6:59 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from Chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

After looking at some of our long range computer data, still looks like our storm ttack (jet stream) will shift again to a pattern that favors colder weather by the end of the  month. Remember all the talk about the “Polar Vortex” It looks like a piece of that will impact the Northeast United States by the end if this month…note the temperature anomolies on the map below. The blue shading on the map  shows the colder than average temps for January 22-28..with the core of the cold centered  over the Great Lakes.. It will be interesting to see if the pattern will favor any coastal snowstorms setting up then…

814temp_new