Good Morning…actually very early morning (12:18am)…

Still analyzing the data from the Moore Oklahoma Tornado. The doppler radar technology we use in our weather department is state of the art when it comes to tracking severe weather.  One feature we use is called “X Vision”, in which we can take cross sections of severe thunderstorms and look inside of them in real time. Keep in mind, tornadoes form inside of severe thunderstorms only. Looking inside of these huge storms gives us a wealth of information about the inner structure of the storm, and clues us in on things like hail, tornado, and wind (microbursts) potential. This in turn allows us to give you specific and advanced warnings of dangerous weather headed your way. Stay tuned to Eyewitness News during severe thunderstorm season to see how we use “X-Vision” technology.

The image below is a dramtic 3D look at the Moore Oklahoma thunderstorm and tornado. You can clearly see the funnel touching the ground just outside of Moore.  Other clues are the hieght of the storm (50, 000 feet !!)..along with the location of large hail.

 Thanks for logging on….Tony R Petrarca

From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

The pictures from Moore Oklahoma are heartbreaking…the damage, incredible, even for Oklahoma, which is no stranger to tornadoes.

The strength, size and duration of this particular tornado is rare. Tornado stength is measured using the Fujita Scale.  Twisters are ranked on a scale from Zero to Five. A zero is the weakest, a five is considered catastrophic. Yesterday’s Moore Oklahoma tornado is estimated to be a 4 or 5 on that scale.  That puts winds up to 200mph or higher. Whole cars are lifted and thrown hundreds of feet.

Latest News On Severe Outbreak Click Here

Damage From More Oklahoma, May 20th, 2013

THE FUJITA TORNADO SCALE

 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, MAY 21st, 2013….

SEVERE RISK AREAS IN YELLOW AND RED, GREEN SHADING REPRESENTS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY BE STRONG BUT NOT SEVERE

RISK POTENTIAL TODAY….

Good Evening …

After a slow start. tornado season continues to become more active last several days. As of this writing a Tornado Warning has been issued for Oklahoma City.  This large weather sysytem will affect our weather next several days, but nothing severe…however, this risk of occasional showers and thuderstorms is expe this week. Many hours however will be rain free too, so not a washout.  This storm across the Plains is helping to draw in high humidity across our area….that in turn will produce dense fog along our south coast Tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issues for the coast from 10pm Tonight thru 10am Tuesday..

Thanks for logging on…….Tony Petrarca

Good Evening ….

A busy weather day this past Thursday with confirmed Tornado in Stoughton, Mass and a funnel cloud in North Smithfield RI.  What is the difference?  A funnel cloud is a rotating vortex of air that is suspended above the ground, but never makes contact.  The photo below is an archive picture from the Midwest and not the North Smithfield funnel…..If the funnel cloud makes contact with the ground, it  is then classified as a Tornado.

Here  is a link to the video of the North Smithfield funnel cloud….Its difficult to tell if the funnel makes contact with the ground or not…If it did, it was just for a few seconds.   What do you think….does the funnel make contact with the ground?

http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/local_news/blackstone/funnel-cloud-forms-near-n-smithfield

Below is an archive picture of a tornado…clearly here, the funnel cloud is touching the ground

Here is the video link of the actual  tornado in Stoughton Mass. Watch closely and you can see the swirling column of air (estimated at 60-86 mph) hitting the ground.

http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/local_news/se_mass/tornado-touches-down-in-stoughton

Thanks for logging On !    Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Good evening ….

The streak of dry sunny weather will come to an end by mid week.  That is actually good news considering how dry it has been.  We have been abnormally dry of late.  Infact, since March 1st rainfall is running 5 inches below average.

After some clouds and morning fog Tuesday, sunshine will warm things up nicely by afternoon. The forecast map below are the high temperatures by 3pm. Inland areas around 70-75 with the coast in the mid to upper 60s due to light sea breeze.

Rain arrives by Wednesday…Thanks for logging on !!    Tony Petrarca

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Weather pattern that we are in will continue to feature mostly dry air along with near normal temperatures. Rainfall for the month of April is running around 2.55″ below average. Widespread rainfall is not in the forecast next 5-7 days. Notice the forecast high temperatures for Tuesday, mid and upper 60s inland.  Slight sea breezes this week will keep the shores a bit cooler.   Thanks for logging on to wpri.com.  Have a nice evening !

Tony Petrarca

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Good Evening  from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..

Certainly not feeling like late April, almost May Today.  Temperatures stayed in 40s all day. Normal high temperature this time of year is around 63.  Today’s chilly air did not come from Canada, but rather of the cold Atlantic waters. No surprise this time year to have the water still cold.  But even though the ocean is cold, the late April sun is strong enough to warm things up nicely….the key in getting the warmth is not only having the sun out (obviously), but also a wind that comes in off the land (example: west or northwest breeze), rather than the water.

Look at the forecast map below.  See what afternoon sun and a  land breeze for most of the day can do….Highs Wednesday Afternoon recover 65-70…that almost 25 degrees warmer than Today!   A late day sea breeze will knock the temperatures back down along south shore…regardless a much milder day on the way…enjoy.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

I am tracking an approaching cold front which has produced a few showers early this evening. The trend will be for “off and on” showers early Tonight, followed by a steady rain and even some thunder after midnight.  Some slow improvements Saturday.  My forecast map below shows rain (areas of green) extending into early Saturday morning. However, as the cold front sweeps offshore, rain should end from west to east by 10am.  The sun returns by late morning, and especially by afternoon. Bottom line, 2^nd half of Saturday looks better than the 1^st half

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….

Gusty South winds on Friday will bring in milder and humid air…however, notice on our forecast map below, the warmest air will be found well inland, away from south shore. A south wind means the air will be coming in from the chilly Atlantic waters, so the south shore will be 10 degrees cooler, but northern suburbs stay mild with less ocean influence.

Also with higher humidity levels moving in Friday, some areas of fog is likely early. Expecting occasional light showers or sprinkles, but the day as a whole does not looks like a washout. The more widespread heavier rain will arrive later Friday Night into Saturday morning..

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….

Mildest air this week will be found inland, away from the south shore.  High temperatures Tuesday will reach the lower 60s  away from the ocean.  A south wind will keep the immediate shoreline in 50s.  Even milder air Wednesday as temperatures climb to 65-70.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca...

With the weather warming up in the coming weeks,its time to start thinking about planting.  Below are average dates for planting in our area.  The average date of our last frost around here is  April 26. Despite milder afternoons, you can still get chilly temperatures late at night and near dawn this time of year.

When determining the best planting dates in the spring for seeds, the date of the last spring frost is important to your success. Other factors can also influence planting dates, including soil temperature, altitude and slope of land, nearby waters, and day length.

Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Now that we are in April, the angle of the sun is getting higher, so its ability to warm the air is greater. However, we cant ignore the fact that we are surrounded by ocean that is still chilly, only 42 degrees.  Any component of wind coming in off the ocean (sea breeze) will offset the sun’s warming potential. Today was a good example of that with places like Newport almost 10 degrees cooler than places like Smithfield And Providence.

High Temperatures This Afternoon

Cool Marine Air In Blue Covers Southern 1/3 of Area Today

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist  Tony Petrarca….

Watching an offshore storm Friday which will graze our area with some rain…especially along the shore. Latest data shows this storm trending further offshore with less of an impact, just some rain showers. If the trend continues further out to sea, we would miss the rain all together. At this point, I am going to keep showers in the forecast. One of our more reliable computer models (RPM) shows the rain (in green) just clipping us Friday afternoon.  This does not look like a major impact storm with excessive rain or wind….

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

April in Southern New England can be a real “rollercoaster” ride with significant weather changes from day to day. Infact Today was a good example..in Providnce it was sunny and 60 at 2pm this afternoon, then 3 hours later the temperature dropped 15 degrees with rain.  April is a transition month from Winter to Spring, so it can be notorious for having warm temperatures one day, then much colder weather a few days later, only to get warmer several days later…

Below are some interesting weather charts which depict what an average April is like…

Temperature

The month of April is characterized by rapidly rising daily high temperatures, with daily highs increasing from 53°F to 63°F over the course of the month, exceeding 73°F or dropping below 43°F only one day in ten.

Snow

The likelihood of snow falling is highest around April 1, occurring in 12% of days

The Days Are Getting Longer….I Love It !!

The earliest sunrise is at 5:43am on April 30; the latest sunset is at 7:43pm on April 30; the latest sunrise is at 6:28am on April 1; the earliest sunset is at 7:12pm on April 1.

Over the course of April, the length of the day is increasing. From the start to the end of the month, the length of the day increases by 1:17 hours, implying an average day-over-day increase of 2.6 minutes.

The shortest day of the month is April 1 with 12:43 hours of daylight; the longest day is April 30 with 14:00 hours of daylight.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

When predicting temperatures one simple thing we look at is “Source Region”. Where is the air coming from…. what is the source?  Air that moves thru  our area can originate from Canada, Gulf Of Mexico, The Atlantic, Southern Plains, ect.  Of  late, our air masses have been moving in  from Canada, resulting in temperatures that have been averaging below normal….To get milder air, we need more of an air flow from the Southern Plains and or Gulf Of Mexico. A large scale southwest wind would draw upon milder air from this source region. The weather pattern of late has not favored any air masses from the south moving in.  However, a slight moderation in temperature is expected this weekend, BUT, the air from Canada will move back in by next week, bringing cool days and cold nights.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

An interesting comparison on the snow cover on the ground right now (almost 47% of the U.S.) compared to this time last year…wow! Look at the bare ground in 2012.  Not much snow last Winter, and Spring came early in 2012. Infact the ice had already melted on New Hampshire’s largest lake, Winnipesaukee,  one of the earliest ice melts there in 100 years last year. That lake is still covered in ice right now

Good morning from Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca:

The map below shows our weather set up for a narrow band of snow Thursday Evening/Night. While the 2nd map below this text may look confusing, I will walk you thru what we are analyzing and make it simple.     So….here we go with weather lesson 101:

This map is a “streamline” map. It shows how the air near the surface is flowing and in what direction.  Notice how the air flow converges into one narrow zone over Southern New England. The red dot represents Providence. The zone or axis of where the air meets or collides is called a “NorLun Trough”  (the “Lun” in that word is short for Lundestedt, the last name of my roommate in weather school who actually coined this word many years ago)

Converging air is forced to rise….the faster moist air rises in the atmosphere, the more conducive it is in creating rain, or in this case snow. Here is the tricky part. Usually with Norlun situations, the zone of snow is very narrow in width. The exact location and duration of this weather feature will determine how much snow will fall. I have seen NorLun cases where one town may get 6″ of snow while a town only 10-15 miles away gets only a dusting.  The likely zone of snow from this on Thursday evening will be south  and east of Providence and especially across Southeast Massachusetts.

The other map below is an early call on snow fall accumulations Thursday Night….keep in mind how difficult pinpointing the exact location of the narrow snow band, so stay tuned to forecasts. The snowfall rates may be heavy, but at the same times localized in nature, covering only a small area.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

I am tracking a developing storm near the Mid Atlantic Coast at this hour…it will bring snow sleet and rain next 12-18 hours. The atmosphere is plenty cold enough for all snow later this evening and overnight, however, slightly milder air will be drawn in by Tuesday morning and that will result in a transition over to sleet and then “plain rain”, first in our southern suburbs, several hours later northern Rhode Island. Before the transition to sleet and rain, snow will accumulate to 1-2″ along the shore….2-4″ inland including, Warwick, Cranston and the Providence Metro area. North and west of Providence (especially NW of Route 295), 4 to 6 inches of snow is expected by late Tuesday morning.

This messy weather will have a high impact on the Tuesday morning commute, especially inland areas. Allow for some extra travel time. There may be cancellations and/or delays in those areas that see mostly snow rather than rain. Precipitation will switch back briefly to snow Tuesday evening in northern suburbs before ending.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

After some small accumulations this morning, round two of snow has kicked in for tonight thru Friday morning. As of this writing, Cumberland has 2-3″ of snow with up to 7″ of snow being reported in Foxboro and Mansfield Mass. and Norton Mass. already has 8″ on the ground. Large ocean storm is semi stalled off our coast. However the large circulation around it continues to draw in Atlantic Moisture into the area. Also a separate weather system is approaching from the west. The net result will be additional snow Tonight. Now that temperatures have cooled, there is a better chance of the snow sticking and accumulating. The higher totals will be found across interior southeastern Massachusetts (Taunton, Attleboro, Mansfield, Foxboro)  where several inches has  fallen already. In the Providence metro area, including northern RI we are expecting amounts that can range anywhere from only 5″ to  close to 9″.   Right now I am favoring a round 5-6″ in that zone. Further south and east of Providence (Kent County, Washington County) around 3-5″ of snow.

Below is a link of what has fallen already since this morning….some of these morning amounts melted by this afternoon…take note of when observations were taken

Snow Reports So Far

Good Evening…Actually Good Morning, From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca:

Even with the storm 18 hours away, our computer guidance is still not in complete agreement. Infact I am looking at multiple sets of new data that suggests anywhere from 1 to 20 inches of snow.  So where do we go from here?   Additional data will come in during the overnight from 1am thru 5am…I would suggest checking back on Eyewitness News starting at 430am.

The bulk of any accumulating wet snow will fall Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The peak for strong wind gusts will occur Weds Night Into Thursday with gust of 45-55 mph along the shore. Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Rhode Island south shore during multiple high tide cycles next 48 hours…however, the more significant coastal flood threat and erosion will  be along “east facing”  shores of Massachusetts from Boston thru Cape And Islands.

Below is the snowfall accumulation forecast with amounts by Thursday Afternoon. Again, with such a complex weather set up, I recommend checking back to to see if these numbers need to be adjusted. Meanwhile any travel both Wednesday morning and afternoon should not be a problem. Things will deteriorate by Weds evening into Thursday.

Watch Latest Video Forecast Click Here

Snow Amounts By Thursday Noon

Good morning from chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

What is so challenging with this upcoming storm is the huge variability in both precipitation type and amounts. Where it rains, it will be a lot of rain 1.5 to 3″ of rain….and where it stays mostly snow, 6-12″ of snow is possible. All of this may occur over a very short distance. Bottom line, the weather for example in Newport and Narragansett will be vastly different then Pascoag,  Foster Gloucester. For some its a snow storm, for others, a rain and wind storm….the coast will deal with flooding during high tide cycles…..Also with the heavy rains, rivers will need to be monitored. Needless to say, a very challenging forecast.  My advice…check back for updates (tweets too) during Tuesday.  Its almost 12:30 am….going to get some shut eye…talk again soon…..Tony

Best chances for snow vs rain

Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

Large and slow moving coastal storm will form off the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday evening  and extend Thursday into early Friday. The storm will bring a wide variety of weather, including wet snow (for some locations) sleet, rain, strong winds (especially near coast), beach erosion, large waves and surf, along with some coastal flooding during multiple high tide cycles. Still some uncertainty with the amounts and type of precipitation, so check back for updates. Again, impacts are likely, especially for coastal areas, but the magnitude is still in question.  At this point the highest chances for any wet accumulating snow would be in the higher elevations of northwest Rhode Island, Northeast, Conn., Worcester, and Berkshires. Elsewhere it would be a cold rain sleet mix along with gusty winds. Keep in mind that a shift in storm track could make the wet snow impact more pronounced in the Providence metro area.

Below is forecast of storm location south of New England by Thursday morning. Since it is slow moving, a long duration fetch of east and northeast winds will bring in moisture off the ocean (rain snow sleet) as well as maintain waves and offshore swells which will head towards our coastline:

Offshore Storm Thursday Morning

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Water levels will rise slowly on the Pawtuxet River overnight thru early Thursday morning. River forecast to crest at 9.4, which is about 6 inches above flood stage. This will produce minor flooding along parts of the river. Water levels will fall to below flood stage by Thursday afternoon and evening. The combination of snow melt and Wednesday’s heavy rains are the reason for the water rise.

How does this compare with the historical flood from several years ago? …back then the river crested at 2o feet above flood stage….the forecast this time around is about 6 inches above.

Forecast Of Water Rise On Pawtuxet…Will Crest 5-6 inches Above Flood Stage

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca ….

After nearly 1-2 inches of rain Today, a lull this evening and Tonight with just light rain showers. Rain will re-develop Thursday afternoon, but much lighter than Today. Thursday afternoon temperatures well into the 40s will assure us of “plain rain”. However colder air will return late Thursday Night/Dawn Friday. A period of light snow is likely after midnight Thursday night….accumulations, if any, would be small..perhaps a coating to an inch or two by dawn Friday.  Good news for the weekend…no storms!

Light Rain Showers Thursday Afternoon

Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Storm arrives after midnight Tonight thru Wednesday, and with the lack of any real cold air, it will be mostly rain. However for a few hours well north and west of Providence, we will see 2-3 hours worth of wet snow before the change to rain.  Onshore winds from the southeast at 25-35 mph will coincide with the Wednesday 9am high tides. This combination may produce  minor (not major) coastal flooding.

Minor erosion and flooding at high tide

***NEW DATA: RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWERED  A BIT THIS WEEKEND****

OVERNIGHT Mostly Cloudy…dry. Lows in the mid to upper 20s

SATURDAY:  A weaker coastal storm will move towards southern New England.   Saturday will start dry.  Wet snow and sleet developing by mid to late afternoon… changing to rain near the coast . High in the mid to upper 30s

SAT. NIGHT: Windy with mostly rain/sleet south and east of Providence….wet snow, sleet  and some rain north and west of the city…lows in the mid 30s. Areas north and west of Providence will turn back over to wet snow after 2am

SUNDAY:  Any left over sleet and rain turning back to all snow early…becoming windy..  highs in the mid to upper 30s.  Lingering snow  continues in the afternoon.

  ***Final Snow Accumulation By Sunday Afternoon Have Been Lowered A Bit****

        3-5″  Far Northern/Western RI and Northern Bristol County in MA

        1-3″ Kent County RI, Providence Metro Area.. Including Interior Bristol And Plymouth County Mass.

        Coating-1″ South Coasts Including Washington County RI

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca....

We are still on track for stormy weather this weekend.  Along with wet snow and sleet, we will see a period of rain, especially south of Providence. This is not expected to be a “blockbuster” snow fall.  Infact, most of our area will have amounts that range from only 1 to 4″.  However, in far northern and western Rhode Island…amounts of 4 to 8″ expected. Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Northwest Rhode Island and Central Massachusetts. Wet snow and sleet will start Saturday afternoon…a transition to sleet and rain will move thru Saturday Night. Colder air will filter back in during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday, changing the precipitation back over to snow.  Snow Sunday morning will taper off by afternoon.

Good Evening  From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Next Storm, Unlike The Last Two, Will Bring Rain Along With Some Wet Snow And Wind…

Below is the updated accumulation forecast by Sunday Morning…

Wet Snow Changing To Rain Saturday Night Will Produce Localized Street Flooding…However That Rain Will Turn Back To Snow Early Sunday Morning…Ending Mid Afternoon Sunday.

Snow Clogged Storm Drains Means Big Puddles Saturday Night

Snow Amounts By Sunday Morning..

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Here is the “early call” on snow accumulations by Sunday Noon.  Wet snow starts Saturday afternoon but changes to sleet and rain Saturday Night…then back to snow Sunday morning. Still alot of uncertainty with the amounts of rain and snow so check back often for updates next few days. If the change to rain is more significant and longer lasting, these snow totals will need to be lowered.

I will have updates later Tonight on Eyewitness News At 10pm on FOX and at 11pm on CBS

Amounts By Noon Sunday

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca....

Latest data I have been analyzing still points to a likely storm this weekend…starting Saturday afternoon, ending early Sunday noon. Unlike the last few storms which were all snow, this next one will have some rain, especially for southern suburbs and coastline.  Usually a storm’s track will determine  precipitation type, amounts and location. This next storm will track close enough to the coast to pull in some milder air, changing snow over to sleet, then rain. Best chances of this would be south and east of Providence. The blue area on the map below shows the best chances for snow and sleet….the green areas indicate highest chance for sleet and plain rain . Based on this, far northern areas expected have higher snow accumulations..up to 6 or more inches, while southern  areas may come in at only 1-3″ …..“hold on though”,  it’s only Wednesday night, so this forecast is just an early call….check back next few days to see where that pink rain-snow line ends up. It should be noted that even though some areas change to rain , those locations will eventually switch back over to snow sometime on Sunday morning as colder air moves back in behind the departing storm.

Storm Location By Saturday Night…Snow Inland / Rain Coast

Snow vs Rain