Good afternoon from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…our weather dept continues to monitior the potential for severe weather late Tuesday Night into Wednesday…the following items we continue to track along the National Weather Service In Taunton Mass…
Heavy Rain/Flooding Potential:
Flash Flood Watch for late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. The watch includes the following areas:
Cheshire County in southwest New Hampshire
Western and central Massachusetts
Northwest Rhode Island
Bands of heavy rainfall with some embedded thunderstorms may cause localized urban/poor drainage flash flooding as well as a risk of flash flooding along a few small streams.
In coastal areas, any urban flooding may be exacerbated during high tide, which may inhibit drainage. High tides in association with the “super moon” will be astronomically high during Wednesday.
Widespread river flooding is not expected. Main stem river flows are quite low going into this event.
Potential widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across southern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday with pockets of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Localized strong gusty winds are possible especially during the daylight hours Wednesday.
A brief tornado is also possible. This is a low probability event, but the expected weather pattern on Wednesday is a type that could produce a short track tornado. Timing on any such occurrence during the day remains uncertain, with low confidence at this time of any one area more at risk than another.
The combination of high spring tides and fairly significant onshore winds may result in pockets of minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide on Wednesday.
Highest risk for any coastal flooding along the south coast will be around the time of the Wednesday mid morning high tide.
Highest risk for any coastal flooding along the east coast will be around the time of the Wednesday afternoon high tide…….
Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..
As o f1pm , Bertha is barely hanging on to hurricane status, and is expected to weaken on Tuesday. Forecast has not changes with the center passing well south and east of New England Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning. Rain and wind will not impact US mainland, howevedr increasing surf and rip currents likely later Tuesdaty Night into Wednesday
LOCATION…31.3N 73.1W ABOUT 490 MI…790 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES
AT 1100 PM..THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH…31 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…BERTHA WILL PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS…OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM…PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
Latest Satellite Image Shows Poor Structure To The Storm
Latest Storm Position As Of 11pm Monday
Latest Forecast Track Keeps Tropical Storm Force Winds Well Offshore Of New England
Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…
Bertha is a disorganzied hurricane at this time with winds of 75 mph. The forecast confidence is high that the storm will pass out to sea this week and not have a rain or wind impact here. Howevever surf and rip currents will increase along our beaches by mid week.
———————————————- LOCATION…29.4N 73.6W ABOUT 560 MI…900 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES
—————————— AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/H…AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…BERTHA WILL PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS…OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
Bertha Right Now
Bertha Forecast Track Takes Storm Well South and East Of New England
Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….
CENTER OF BERTHA PASSING NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF MARTINIQUE… TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS…
AS OF 5PM LOCATION…14.9N 61.2W ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM NW OF FORT DE FRANCE MARTINIQUE ABOUT 405 MI…650 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 MPH…39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…INCLUDING THE ACKLINS…CROOKED ISLAND… LONG CAY…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS…AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * DOMINICA * MARTINIQUE * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO ISLA SAONA * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS…INCLUDING THE ACKLINS…CROOKED ISLAND…LONG CAY…THE INAGUAS…MAYAGUANA…AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES… TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED…
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM ———————————————– LOCATION…12.3N 55.5W ABOUT 275 MI…445 KM ESE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 385 MI…620 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS AND DOMINICA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO…VIEQUES… CULEBRA…AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE FRIDAY MORNING.
Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…
National Hurricane Center and the Pinpoint Weather Team watching a clusters of thunderstorms in the eastern Atlantic for possible tropical storm development….
Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated
with an area of low pressure located about 1450 miles east of the
southern Windward Islands are currently limited. This system
remains well organized, however, and it could develop into a
tropical depression later today or tomorrow while it moves westward
or west-northwestward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
Good Afternoon from chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing over western Massachusetts and Connecticut. A few of these may impact areas from Providencepoints north and westthru 8pm. Storms looked to be localized so not all areas will see one. Some have potential to produce damaging winds and hail. Stay tuned for updates starting live at 5pm on channel 12 Eyewitness News. We will have a live report from Revere, Massachusetts where a tornado touched down this morning with widespread damage.
Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…
Still some uncertainty with Sunday’s Forecast. We continue to see indications of an offshore storm passing south of our area. Our forecast so far has been for dry weather but with extra clouds. Some new model data has been trending the rain closer to us. We will wait for more data overnight, but should this trend continue, we will need to lean more towards a wetter Sunday….stay tuned for updates
Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…
Latest radar continues to show heaviest rain and thunder offshore and moving away. Flash flood watch is canceled in Rhode Island….it will expire in southeast Massachusetts at 8pm…Despite teh heaviest rain moving away..there is still the chance of a few showers this evening….major improvements start Thursday
Good Afternoon from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca..
Still tracking rain offshore that continues to move into our area…but the heaviest of rain is still aimed towards southeastern Massachusetts from roughly Newport to New Bedford where flooding was occuring earlier. Still looks like the bulk of the rain will move away by this evening as drier, less humid air arrives Tonight. Still the chance of brief flash flooding, but “isolated “…..not all areas will see street flooding. Stay tuned to Eyewitness News startingf at 5pm….we will show you some of Today’s minor to moderate flooding along with lightning damage which knocked down some large trees……Tony Petrarca
Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….
Latest radar as of 935 pm shows areal coverage of heavy rain and thunder expanding across Long Island and just offshore. This heavier rain and thunder will move in after 11pm and continue thru the overnight and into Wednesday. Some localized flash flooding of streets is expected at times Tonight thru the Wednesday morning commute…my updated forecast Tonight on channel 12 Eyewitness Newsat 11pm
Good Afternoon From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..
As of 2:30pm, most of our area as been void of any strong to severe thunderstorms. The highest risk still looks like central and western Massachusetts and Connecticut. However a strong thunderstorm(s) cant be ruled out for rest of our area this evening thru Wednesday, so stay tuned to future forecasts, tweets and blogs. Flash Flood Watch remains in effect in anticipation of heavier downpours tonight into Wednesday .
Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca..
The weather patern next 48 hours will favor heavy showers and thunderstorms “at times” . Some storm will be strong to severe Tonight into Tuesday. The best chance for storms reaching severe limits on Tuesday will be in western Massachusetts and western Connecticutt. Map below shows the Tuesday risk area in yellow. Even though it does not include Rhode Island at this time, it is close enough that it bears watching. Thunderstorms in the yellow risk area have a slight chance of producing an isolated Tornado…again does not include our viewing area..BUT …it should be monitored. A few strong thunderstorms later this evening, with another chance by “late” Tuesday afternoon and evening.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS: Now thru Wednesday Afternoon: 2 to 4 inches
WINDS: Strong Gusts In Any Severe Thunderstorms.
FLOODING: Potential For “Localized” Poor Drainage Street Flooding
Good Afternoon from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.
* FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
* MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME…THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES…BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
* FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN…BUT SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..
A number of weather parameters will come together over the next 2-3 days to produce showers and thunderstorms. Some of these have the potential to be strong to severe. The combination of high humidity, a slow moving cold front and unusually strong winds in the upper levels (30, 000 feeet, jet stream level) of the atmosphere will come into play to produce the stormy weather “at times“. There are still timing and location uncertainties for each day…but confidence is high that each day, Monday thru Wednesday, there will be the risk of storms… Meanwhile, for this evening, strong thunderstorms just south of the Mass Pike, are expected to weaken as they approach after 1opm. Stay tuned to further forecasts.
Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca
While it is still several days down the road, our computer guidance data continues to indicate the “potential” for severe thunderstorms from Update New York into New England next Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, many “atmosheric parameters” need to come together for this to happen…bottom line, stay tuned. This is still 3-4 days out which means it is to early to talk specifics….but our weather team just wanted to give you an early head up on this “potential” Meanwhile this weekend looks beautiful so enjoy. Pete Mangione will have updates this weekend and I will be back on air Sunday Night with more information.
Good Afternoon from chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca
A significant shift south of the storm track (jet stream) will bring much cooler weather to the eastern half of the county, especially the Midwest. However, here in in New England, the medium range outlook (6-10days) will feature seasonably warm air, but no major heat.
The major shift in the jet stream for early next week (Monday Tuesday) will bring a higher risk of showers and thunderstorms for our area. The map below represents temperature anomolies. The darkest blue color depicts where cooler air will be. Meanwhile hot dry air will build in the west.
Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca….
After 3 to 6 inches of soaking rains the last 3 days, this storm will be moving out Tonight. Rivers and streams continue to be swollen with minor flooding. The only river with moderate flooding this evening is the Pawcatuck river in Westerly. Water levels will drop slowly next 24 hours. Drier air Tonight with much improved weather Tuesday.
A look back at the flooding this weekend….the “physical state” of the ground played some part in the flooding. The “sub-soil” is still semi-frozen (hard packed ground). The soil is not soft and porous like it is in late Spring and Summer. Bottom line, the soil has a difficult time absorbing the rain….net results are standing water and more runoff. Unfortunately some baseball fields are still soggy. However, drier air next several days will help out….next chance of rain arrives Friday Night into Saturday morning…..Tony Petrarca
Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…
Most of weekend looks wet, however it will stay dry most of Saturday morning. A developing storm this evening over Texas will tap into some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. That storm will track towards our area Saturday evening and into Sunday and Monday. Storm will be off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday Night bringing heavier rain to Southern New England . Our RPM computer model (below) is hinting at 2 to 3″ of rain with isolated 4 inch amounts possible.
Storm Position Saturday Night
Rain Amounts From RPM Model….Rain Totals By Sunday 6PM
Good Evening From chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca….
Here is the latest thinking….of all the Winter storms this season, we are most cautious with this next one….why?
The storm is expected to be very intense with the the worst of the snow and damaging wind confined to Cape Cod and Islands and just offshore. However a slight shift in storm track closer to coast would bring more of a significant impact from New Bedford to Providence….bottom line…stay tuned. Below is our snowfall forecast by Wednesday Noon. Notice the 6 to 10 inch forecast for the Cape is only 50 to 70 miles away from Rhode Island. Any shifts in the storm track further west will make a big difference.
Tony Petrarca…..live updates on Fox Providence at 10pm and Channel 12 Eyewitness News at 11pm
Good Eveving from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…
Rapid and significant weather changes ahead next 6 to 18 hours. Intensifying storm over cental Pennsylvania will move thru this evening and overnight. The storm is moving along a very sharp boundry between mild and cold air. Take note of the temperatures as of 6pm across the northeast. Initially we are on the mild side of this storm with plain rain this evening. As the storm moves away, strong northwest winds late Tonight into Thursday will drag down much colder air over Upstate New York and northern New England. Very rapid temperature drops later Tonight will create a “flash freeze”. Wet surfaces like roads will have a glaze of ice (car wind shields too,car locks). Also rain will change to snow showers. Large amounts of snow unlikely, however, a coating to 1 inch of snow will fall on top of the layer of black ice. The net result will be very slippery travel on untreated surfaces by early Thursday morning……Tony Petrarca
Large Temperature Contrast This Evening
Mild With Plain Rain First Part Of Tonight
Rapid Temperature Drop Midnight Thru Dawn Thursday
As of this writing (11:05pm) temperatures are already in the single digits and still falling. A very cold day ahead for Tuesday. Single digits early morning, only upper 20s by afternoon. Some light snow showers on Wednesday, but its not from a direct storm impact, but rather a shift in wind direction…
Cold east- northeast winds on Wednesday will pick up some Atlantic moisture . The net result will be light “ocean effect” snow showers. Best chance across southeastern Massachusetts…but parts of Rhode Island will see snow showers too. Amounts are will be very minimal, with a coasting to half inch in spots. Low clouds will keep temperatures in the 30s.
Potholes occur when snow and ice melt as part of New England’s seasonal freeze-thaw cycles…Thaws during the afternoons and freeze late at night.
1. The resulting water then seeps beneath the pavement through cracks caused by the wear and tear of traffic.
2. As the temperatures cool to freezing at night, the water becomes ice and expands below the pavement, forcing the pavement to rise and buckle.
3. As the weight of traffic continues to pound on this raised section – and the temperatures once again rise above freezing – a shallow divot (air pocket or space) occurs under the surface and the pavement breaks, forming a pothole. A pothole is typically fixed by cleaning out the loose debris and filling it with hot and cold asphalt patch…
Ofcourse the holes are difficult to see at night…especially if they are filled with water. What looks like a harmless puddle ends up being a large hole.
Good evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…
Temperatures anomolies for next 6 to 10 days not very promising for milder weather….despite nice temperatures this weekend, a bitter shot of cold air will pour out of Canada next week. The core of that chill arrives here Thursday and Friday..meanwhile the potential for some light snow Sunday Night, and perhaps a more important snow for mid week Wednesday….stay tuned. Meanwhile this evening’s thunderstorms have moved out…watch for areas of fog….some black ice possible much later Tonight into dawn Saturday, but milder by Saturday afternoon….Tony Petrarca
Good evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….
Rain from this afternoon and evening will produce minor localized street flooding in some neighborhood streets this evening. Combination of rain, snowmelt and clogged storm drains will create standing water. Also watching the temperatures. A slow drop Tonight, falling below freezing, first early this evening in far northern suburbs, and then lastly along the shore. Untreated wet pavement, puddles and slush will re-freeze later Tonight thru dawn Thursday. However a rapid warm up is likely Thursday, with afternoon highs in mid 40s….
Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….
Today’s storm continues to move away with drier air working in. The concern now is falling temperatures. Wet surfaces, slush and puddles will freeze Tonight. Untreated wet pavement/roads will turn to black ice. Allow extra travel time and some caution tonight thru dawn Wednesday. Some icy conditions early Wednesday morning, however temperatures by afternoon will recover to at least 40 degrees
How much snow fell??….state wide amounts in most locations ranged from 2 inches on the low end, to 5 inches on the higher side. We did have two reports of 6 inches in Burrillville and Pawtucket. The higher amounts were in our northern suburbs
SNOW AMOUNTS BY 6PM TUESDAY….. Minor accumulations on Tuesday….snow starts just after 10am and will be heavy at times from noon to 4pm. Some sleet and rain mixing in south of Providence….about 1 inch of slush along the south shore…..2-3 inches inland, with amounts up to 4 inches confined to the higher elevations of northwest Rhode Island…..snow quits by early evening. Since the storm is a quick mover….high snow amounts not expected, BUT, certainly enough snow to impact afternoon and early evening travel