Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

New data coming this evening continues to point to very strong wind gusts that will occur later Friday night into Saturday Morning…Infact gusts of 70-80 mph possible along the south shore and just offshore. Last time the coast had gusts like that was during Hurricane Sandy. As TJ DelSanto mentioned in previous blog, major south coast flooding (surge) is not likely. However, large waves and surf are likely. Power outages will occur in spots, especially where tree limbs and power lines are weighted down due to heavy wet snow…

Wind Gust MPH From High Resolution RPM Computer Model Valid 11PM Friday

Good Morning From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Early morning here in the weather center, as I write this at 12:38am. Just wanted to make a quick note on the expected winds with this storm…Below is a map of one of our reliable high resolution computer models called the RPM.  The red “L” is the offshore storm late Friday Night. The colors of red wrapping around the storm represent forecast winds of 50-60 mph. The combination of those winds and heavy snow will lead to isolated power outages late Friday Night into Saturday morning.  Thursday  is another dry day and during that time more of this computer data will be coming in. Check back often for updates. While we feel confident of a major storm, some of the finer details like snow amounts, precipitation type (yes, there will be some rain and sleet for a short time) and locations of maximum snow, still need to be re-evaluated.  Nonetheless, a high impact storm is likely with the worst of it being Friday Night into Saturday Morning…

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca....

It looks like all the atmospheric “ingredients” will come together to produce a significant coastal storm on Friday. However, some of these “ingredients” are over 1000 miles away and yet to come together… Bottom line, its difficult at this point to get to detailed on things like precipitation type, location, and amounts, but on a broader scale, it looks like stormy weather Friday.

Storm will start Friday morning, with its peak occuring Friday Evening and overnight. Whole system moves away by Saturday morning. Ofcourse, the kind of weather we get is highly dependent on the track of the storm. For example, if the storm tracks too close to the coast, milder air takes over and a change to rain would occur for a time, before switching back to snow. Obviously the longer it rains before the change back to snow, the lower the snow accumulations. A track further offshore is a colder scenario keeping the precipitation as all snow. For those areas that stay all snow, amounts will be significant to plow and shovel. Some of our long range computer models hint at over a foot of snow…others have less.

Below is what the weather map will look like by Friday Night…the red line is the rain snow line. How far inland (north) that  line moves remains to be seen. Regardless of any rain, a turn back to all snow is likely as the storm pulls away.  Stay tuned to twitter and blog updates next few days. I will have new information on Eyewitness News Tonight at 10 and 11pm. Check with Michelle in the morning starting at 4:30am

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Tracking some very light snow and flurries approaching from Pennsylvania that will arrive well after midnight thru dawn….this is not a “storm”, however, a dusting of snow is likely,  mainly south of Providence and especially at coast.  One of our high resolution computer models we use, called RUC, is shown below. The light blue shading over our area suggests that a dusting of snow is possible by early Tuesday morning.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Latest data I have been analyzing last several hours still pointing to several hours of very strong wind gusts late Tonight thru early Thursday morning. Wind gust this evening will average 35-45 mph….but then really ramp up after 1am thru about 8am Thursday. Still looks like gusts to 60+ mph will occur.  Winds of that magnitude can take down limbs and power lines, and in some cases uproot whole trees. This scenario will be scattered BUT significant. Isolated power “flickers” or outages are likely later on. …

The map below shows wind speeds at a few 1000 feet above at around 2AM Thursday. (This is data from one of the high resolution computer models we use.) The colors represent wind speeds with the area of light brown approaching from Long Island New York being the core of strongest winds. Even those these speed are at 2500 feet up, some of that wind energy can be brought down the the ground…this is why we are forecasting gusts to 60+ mph late Tonight thru the early part of Thursday morning’s commute

Map courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics

As far as rain…scattered showers and brief downpours this evening…a steadier more widespread rain overnight. Even an isolated thunderstorm is likely later at night…

After 10am Thursday the wind speeds will come down a little bit, but still strong all day long. I expect gusts in the 45-50 mph range along with drier air and some sunshine.

UPDATED VIDEO FORECAST

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

A Spring-like storm currently in the Midwest will approach our area on Wednesday. We will see a dramatic rise in temperatures as well as the winds. Some light rain showers Wednesday afternoon, but the heaviest of the rain (even some thunder) will arrive at night. A High Wind Watch is in effect Weds Night. Winds will gusts to 50-60 mph, especially after Midnight. Gusts of that magnitude may cause some isolated damage.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

What determines precipitation type are the temperatures from the ground to several 1000 feet up into the clouds. Normally the higher up in the sky you go, the temperature falls. However, Tonight, the air in the clouds is warming faster than the air near the ground.  The result…”warm” clouds are now producing light rain and drizzle. The problem…the ground temperatures where we are standing are still below freezing…as the rain  and drizzle drops fall to the ground they freeze….this will create a light icy glaze on surfaces. Untreated areas will get slippery. The bulk of the accumulating snow is done…only a coating to an inch in most areas…….Tony

…………………….Very Little Accumulation Expected

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca...

Keeping an eye on the radar Tonight, showing very light snow approaching. The ground temperatures are very cold so every flake of snow will stick, meaning it wont be very difficult to get a least a dusting later Tonight. The forecast is for a dusting to 1″. Any 1 inch amounts would be confined to the south coast and Cape only. While this certainly is not a lot of snow, it is enough to create slippery travel on any untreated surfaces, so please drive with caution later Tonight. Behind this weather system will  another round of colder air thru the weekend. The much talked about warm up for next week is still a “go”…but the initial arrival of mild air will bring a mix of wet snow and rain Monday….changing to rain showers Monday Night.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Bitter cold air will be long lasting this week. Infact temperatures will not get above freezing until Monday of next week. Meanwhile  we will be watching  storm that approaches from the Midwest and then reforms offshore south of our area by late Friday. How close (or far away) the storm tracks is crucial to snow amounts if any. At this point I feel it tracks close enough for several inches of snow Friday Night…ofcourse, you know the “drill”  by  now…stay tuned for updates next few days. Thanks for checking in with our weather blog page….Tony

Good Evening..

Updated accumulation map….any 5 or 6 inch amounts for Rhode Island will be confined to southern suburbs in Washington County. Already 4″ as of this writing in Newport, Narragansett and Westerly. Amounts lessen the further north you go with the lower totals in Kent and Providence Counties. Latest radar showing the snow starting to “back build” to the northwest..in otherwords, expanding in size…this will give inland areas an extra inch or two overnight…..Tony Petrarca

Good Evening…

Forecast map below for snow totals overnight. The forecast “range” is for 3-6 inches of snow. At this point I am leaning towards the low end of those numbers with most spots getting around 3″

A difficult accumulation forecast due to the fact that embedded within generally light to moderate snow, there will be very small narrow bands of heavier snow. Where those heavier bands set up (even briefly) is a tough call. That is why I went with a wide range in the snowfall accumulations of 3-6″  The probability of 5 or 6inches is low, with a better chance of seeing up to 3″.  Regardless…travel impacts likely Tonight thru early Tuesday morning. Skies will clear later in the morning and into the afternoon.

The other weather story(s) will be the temperatures, plus more snow later in the work week. Some of the coldest air of the season will move in after the snow and extend thru most of the week. Next storm potential(snow) comes on Friday.

Tony Petrarca

Good Evening…

I must give credit to my college roommate Weir Lundstedt. We both attended weather school at Lyndon State College in Vermont (along with my other classmate  Jim Cantore). Weir would later go on to write a paper back in 1992 about a weather feature called the “Norlun Trough”.  I mention it because this is a weather system that may be trying to set up early next week to produce some snow here Monday evening into Tuesday. An ocean storm will pass out to sea to our south early next week…however, a narrow extension of low pressure, what is called a surface trough will extend from that low into New England…see map below. This narrow weather set up has some characteristics of a “Nurlun Trough” where areas of snow can form in the vicinity of this narrow weather feature.  Also, some arctic cold air will be in place, so any snow would tend to be dry and fluffy, allowing for some enhanced accumulations. Not etched in stone yet, but it is worth watching for early next week. The bigger weather story will be a shot of very cold air on the way for next week.    Tony Petrarca

​Good Evening From The Pinpoint Weather Center….

I am tracking a storm system across the southeastern United States. It will move well south of our area overnight, but still brush us with some light snow. Since the bulk of the steady moisture will be out over the ocean, the highest snow amounts will be over the Cape and Islands. Amounts in Rhode Island will range from only a dusting in the Providence Metro area, to a dusting to 1″ along the immediate south shore of Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts….It is worth watching closely Tonight to see if the snow shield advances further inland (that would mean more snow) or further out to sea (meaning less snow). Stay tuned to Eyewitness News at 10 pm an again 11pm Tonight for updates. At this point it looks to be only a nuisance for early Friday morning commute and not a major snow event…Tony Petrarca

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Despite some smaller ponds and lakes freezing over…ice thickness is still very much UNSAFE here in southern New England. Younger children need to be reminded of this. Infact despite some of the coldest air of the season in place right now, a trend towards milder air is expected next week…the following is a rough guide line to ice thickeness….data is from the Army Corps Of Engineers

Every winter it becomes very important to know when the ice is safe to use. Here are some guidelines for determining the safety of freshwater ice. The following table of safe loads is valid ONLY for ice that is clear and sound, with no flowing water underneath. it is not reliable for stationary loads. When in doubt, stay off the ice !

Loads on Ice

Good Morning,

Our fast moving Nor’easter continues to pull away after leaving anywhere from 5 to 12 inches of snow last night. Click here for snowfall totals Strong northwest winds behind the storm will gust up to 45mph at times. A High Wind Advisory is in effect until 8pm Some limbs and power lines are “sagging” under the weight of the snow, thus isolated power outages are possible. Also some of the coldest air of the season is on the way for Tonight as lows fall into the teens by dawn Monday.  It looks like a storm free stretch of weather ahead next 5-7 days.

Tony Petrarca

Good Evening..

Skies will stay crystal clear Tonight….good news for meteor shower….the following is from earthsky.org

The 2012 Geminid meteor shower should peak on the nights of December 13/14 and 14/15, but in 2012 the nights leading up to the shower’s peak have been fantastic as well. That could be in part because there’s a possible new meteor shower coinciding with the Geminids in 2012. Geminid numbers intensify as evening deepens into late night, with greatest numbers of Geminids possibly falling an hour or two after midnight (December 14 and 15) – when the meteor shower radiant point looms highest in the sky – as seen from around the globe. Meanwhile, the second shower peaks during the evening hours. So you might see a Geminid meteor, or one of these new “Piscid” meteors, at any time of night this week. And – because it takes some days or even weeks for Earth to ford these meteor streams in space – do watch for meteors for some nights before and after the peak.

Tony Petrarca

So far the most snow has been in  Northwest Rhode Island with 2 to 2.5 inches in Burrillville, Foster and Glocester….why? …because its colder in the higher elevations there. In other areas, the air is cold enough to snow for many hours, but the ground temperatures (especially the pavement) is too warm, so a lot of melting going on. Bottom line..snowing for many hours in some areas, but very little is sticking. Even though you see the number “3″ on the map below, that is mostly limited to the higher elevations of northwest RI. Most accumulations tonight will be on non paved surfaces like grass, shrubs and car tops.

Good Evening…

New data that I have been looking at last several hours suggests that we will need to increase the accumulation forecast slightly. Keep in mind that these are the final totals by LATE Tuesday Night. Snow will start mid morning Tuesday (after 8am)…it will mix with sleet and rain for a time along the coast. As colder takes over Tuesday night all locations will change to snow. One reason we have increased the snow totals is due to the storm intensifying as it pulls away Tuesday Night. This intensification creates a  2nd burst of slightly steadier snow Tuesday Night. The forecast is for generally 1-3 inches of snow…some computer model data even hints at isolated 4 inch amounts, but at this point, 4 inches is more the exception rather than the rule. Snow showers will linger into Wednesday morning, drier by Weds. Afternoon.                   Tony Petrarca

Good Morning…12:30am….still in the weather center. I was curious to see some of the new computer data coming in. Strong cold front will approach on Friday Night bringing some scattered showers (Friday “Day” looks dry). Behind this front, gusty winds and colder air will rush in this weekend. While most of the weekend looks dry, a brief passing rain-snow shower is possible Saturday……Tony Petrarca

Good Evening from meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Weather next several days looks cool and dry as Canadian High pressure (a fair weather feature) is parked over us.  Yes… an ocean storm is likely off  the east coast next week (Monday-Weds). However, a lot of our model guidance is trending  further offshore and out to sea.  I don’t want to write off the threat completely yet…for now I am keeping clouds, sprinkles and breezy conditions in the forecast Monday and Tuesday due to a prolong fetch of damp easterly winds off the ocean.

The map below is one of our guidance models called the “European Model”. Its  has had a very good skill score of late, with its outstanding forecast of Hurricane Sandy, and the Nor’easter last week. This model shows the center of the storm (the circular blip of green on the map) tracking further out to sea.  Other long  range guidance models hint at this as well…which would mean complete miss or just a light grazing of showers and wind. Stay tuned for updates since we are still 4-5 days out with this weather feature…..Tony Petrarca

Data courtesy of WeatherBell Analytics

Good Evening..

A very dynamic coastal storm with a wide variety of weather…as of this writing still raining in Newport and New Bedford with steady wet snow across inland areas…Winds are a big factor, especially south shore with gusts up to 50-60mph…isolated power flickers and or outages are likely. I am anticipating the snow to transition to sleet (ice pellets) and freezing rain later this evening..once that happens, the ongoing accumulations will ease up. Looking at mostly rain Thursday, however the northwest corner of Rhode Island will have pockets of sleet and freezing rain at dawn. Plain rain showers Thursday afternoon, windy…much better weather Friday thru the weekend…

Map below is forecast totals by dawn Thursday…Half of this has fallen already as of 7pm

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

A mostly cold rain and wind storm for southeastern New England…however for  a short time, a brief period of wet snow in northwest RI. A small slushy coating on  non paved surfaces, north and west of route 295 and some higher elevations of western Kent County by Weds evening before changing over to all rain…

Strongest winds Wednesday will near the the south shore where a High Wind Warning is in effect.  Gusts from the northeast up to 55 mph. Wind gusts  further inland away from the shore, not as strong, but still significant, up to 40-45 mph. Gusts of this magnitude will produce sporadic power outages, but not as widespread as Sandy last week. Infact coastal flood threat on the south shore is expected to be minor…large waves and some beach erosion likely however.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Latest data coming in is showing the snow band that was originally anticipated for Western Mass and Berkshires only, now shifting  further to the south and east (closer to northeast Connecticut and the Northwest Hills of Rhode Island.  New data on map below, showing the snow line drawing a little closer…it looks like a wet snow at the start Wednesday afternoon/evening changing to all rain…High winds are still likely with gusts of 50-60 mph (especially near coast)  Wednesday Evening and night….stay tuned for updates thru out Tuesday as temperatures on Wednesday will be very sensitive across inland areas as far as snow vs. rain.

Latest High Resolution (12km) RPM model showing small accumulations in the higher elevations north and west of route 295 in northwest RI…with higher totals in the Berkshires.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Still looks like a coastal storm (Nor’easter) will impact our weather From Wednesday afternoon thru Thursday. The height of the storm occurs Wednesday Evening/night.. Below is one of our high resolution computer models showing the center of the storm located a few hundred miles south of our coast on Weds. Afternoon. The bands of orange and red indicate the core of strongest winds a few 1000 feet above the ground. This will translates to wind gusts near the ground up to 50 mph by Wednesday evening and night. This may lead to isolated power outages and tree limb damage, but not of the magnitude of Sandy last week..

As far as coastal flooding, at this point, the threat is minor to the Rhode Island south shore due to more of an offshore wind (more northeast wind, rather than southeast wind like with Sandy). Large surf, some erosion and a minor surge is forecast for Rhode Island south shore. However,  east coastal Massachusetts from Boston down thru Cape Cod and Cape Cod Bay may have some moderate flooding Wednesday Night and again Thursday morning. Heaviest rain will be Wednesday evening and night with 1-3 inches…that combined with leaf clogged storm drains with produce localized street flooding.  Tuesday is a nice but chilly day….check back often for updates, as any change in storm strength and track will ofcourse dictate the day’s weather mid week.

Good Evening From Meteorologist  Tony Petrarca...

Incredible Aerial Photos Of Severe Damage On Rhode Island Coast (Courtesy Of RI Dept. Of Transportation)  Click HERE

The following is a brief overview and look back at Hurricane Sandy. This is courtesy of the National Weather Service in Taunton Mass.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS

SANDY...A HYBRID STORM WITH BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS, BROUGHT HIGH WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING TO SOUTHERN 
NEW ENGLAND.  EASTERLY WINDS GUSTED TO 50 TO 60 MPH FOR INTERIOR 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND; 55 TO 65 MPH ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS 
COAST AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND 
RHODE ISLAND; AND 70 TO 80 MPH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND 
RHODE ISLAND COASTS.  A FEW HIGHER HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRED ALONG THE 
RHODE ISLAND COAST.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EMBEDDED IN AN OUTER BAND 
ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH AND CONCENTRATED 
DAMAGE IN WAREHAM EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, A DAY AFTER THE CENTER OF 
SANDY HAD MOVED INTO NEW JERSEY.  IN GENERAL MODERATE COASTAL 
FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE, AND MAJOR 
COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTED THE RHODE ISLAND COASTLINE.  THE STORM 
SURGE WAS GENERALLY 2.5 TO 4.5 FEET ALONG THE EAST COAST OF 
MASSACHUSETTS, BUT PEAKED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN BETWEEN HIGH TIDE 
CYCLES.  SEAS BUILT TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING JUST OFF THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST.  ALONG THE SOUTH 
COAST, THE STORM SURGE WAS 4 TO 6 FEET AND SEAS FROM 30 TO A LITTLE 
OVER 35 FEET WERE OBSERVED IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS.  THE VERY 
LARGE WAVES ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE CAUSED DESTRUCTIVE COASTAL 
FLOODING ALONG STRETCHES OF THE RHODE ISLAND EXPOSED SOUTH COAST.  

SANDY GREW INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND THEN 
HEADED NORTH ACROSS JAMAICA, CUBA, AND THE BAHAMAS.  AS SANDY HEADED 
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS, THE STORM INTERACTED WITH A VIGOROUS WEATHER 
SYSTEM MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND BEGAN TO 
TAKE ON A HYBRID STRUCTURE.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST 
CANADA HELPED WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE STRONG WINDS WELL NORTH OF 
THE CENTER OF SANDY.  IN ESSENCE, SANDY RETAINED THE STRUCTURE OF A 
HURRICANE NEAR ITS CENTER (UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL) WHILE 
TAKING ON MORE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CONFIGURATION WELL AWAY 
FROM THE CENTER.  SANDY'S TRACK WAS UNUSUAL.  THE STORM HEADED 
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THEN 
SHARPLY TURNED TO THE WEST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR ATLANTIC CITY, NJ 
DURING MONDAY EVENING.  SANDY SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKENED AND MOVED WEST 
ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH AND 
HEADING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO QUEBEC DURING TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  

IN THE TAUNTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE WARNING AREA, RHODE ISLAND 
WAS HARDEST HIT.  A PEAK WIND GUST OF 86 MPH OCCURRED IN WESTERLY, 
AND NEARLY THE ENTIRE RHODE ISLAND SHORELINE EXPERIENCED MODERATE TO 
MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING.  NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES OCCURRED WITH WINDS 
GUSTING TO 60 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND TO 80+ MPH ALONG THE SOUTH 
COAST.  MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING STRUCK THE RHODE ISLAND OCEAN EXPOSED 
SOUTH COAST DURING THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.  THIS STORM TIDE, 
ESPECIALLY DESTRUCTIVE ACROSS SHORELINES IN WESTERLY, SOUTH 
CHARLESTOWN, SOUTH KINGSTON, NARRAGANSETT, AND BLOCK ISLAND, RIVALED 
THE IMPACT FROM HURRICANE BOB IN 1991.  ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND SOUTH 
COAST, THE DAMAGING COASTAL FLOODING WAS FUELED BY A STORM SURGE 
AROUND 5 FEET AND WAVES OF 30+ FEET THAT PROPAGATED ON A LONG FETCH 
INTO BLOCK ISLAND AND  RHODE ISLAND SOUNDS.  A SURVEY OF IMPACT 
ALONG MISQUAMICUT BEACH REVEALED AN INUNDATION EXTENT CONSISTENT 
WITH THE UPPER BOUNDARY OF A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AND VERY SEVERE 
EROSION.  IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE DURING 
MONDAY MORNING PRODUCED MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS ALONG THE RHODE 
ISLAND COAST AND LIKELY WEAKENED DUNES AND OTHER COASTAL STRUCTURES 
IN ADVANCE OF THE MORE DESTRUCTIVE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE. LOWEST 
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IN NWS-TAUNTON'S AREA.

WESTERLY, RI979.2 MB  (41.3N  71.8W) AT 353 PM ON OCT. 29, 2012.

HIGHEST WIND GUSTS - OCT. 29, 2012

WESTERLY, RI 86 MPH  244 PM
BUZZARDS BAY 83 MPH  300 PM   ELEVATION 80 FT. POINT 
JUDITH, RI     81 MPH 240 PM
WEST ISLAND, MA        80 MPH 335 PM
MARSTONS MILLS, MA  79 MPH 447 PM
BARNSTABLE, MA 79 MPH 101 PM
MATTAPOISETT, MA 76 MPH
BLUE HILL - MILTON, MA 74 MPH 332 PM
PLEASURE BAY,         73 MPH 300 PM
WARREN, RI 73 MPH 410 PM
EAST FALMOUTH, 72 MPH 200 PM
KALMUS, MA        72 MPH 325 PM
CONIMICUT, RI 71 MPH         324 PM 
BROOKLINE, MA CLAY CENTER 69 MPH 354 PM  
WESTERLY, RI 69 MPH 321 PM
CHILDREN'S ISLAND,   68 MPH   300 PM
MARTHA'S VINEYARD, MA 68 MPH 157 PM
BEDFORD, MA 67 MPH 555 PM
MILFORD, MA 67 MPH 148 PM
ROSE ISLAN     67 MPH 320 PM
QUONSET POINT, RI 63 MPH 400 PM  
BOSTON, MA 62 MPH 416 PM
DUXBURY,    62 MPH 520 PM
JAMESTOWN, RI   62 MPH 254 PM 
FAIRHAVEN, MA 62 MPH 126 PM
FALMOUTH 62 MPH 415 PM
WAKEFIELD, MA 62 MPH 341 PM
WINDSOR LOCKS, CT 62 MPH 708 PM
BARRINGTON, RI  61 MPH 1239 PM
HYANNIS, MA 61 MPH 339 PM
LAWRENCE, MA 61 MPH  226 PM
NEW BEDFORD, MA 61 MPH   420 PM
WORCESTER, MA 61 MPH 531 PM
RANDOLPH, MA 60 MPH 
NANTUCKET, MA 60 MPH 241 PM
PEPPERELL, MA 60 MPH
BEVERLY, MA 59 MPH 600 PM
NEWPORT, RI 59 MPH 113 PM
PROVIDENCE, RI 59 MPH 451 PM
BURLINGTON, CT 58 MPH 422 PM
HARWICH, MA  56 MPH 1010 AM
PLYMOUTH, MA 56 MPH 414 PM
BRIDGEWATER, MA 55 MPH  134 PM
MANCHESTER, NH 55 MPH   822 PM
HARTFORD, CT 54 MPH 634 PM
NORWOOD, MA 54 MPH 530 PM
SOUTHBRIDGE, MA 54 MPH 315 PM
CHICOPEE, MA 53 MPH 447 PM
JAFFREY, NH 53 MPH 455 PM
WILLIMANTIC, CT 53 MPH 615 PM
CHATHAM, MA 52 MPH   451 PM
WESTFIELD, MA 51 MPH 255 PM
TAUNTON, MA 47 MPH  350 PM
SMITHFIELD, RI 45 MPH 415 PM
ORANGE, MA 43 MPH 543 PM

$$

Good Evening…

After a very busy 5 Days ( we started to get concerned in the weather center last week), things are calmer now. Wind gusts were impressive with the storm, as high as 86 mph on south shore in gusts. At one point the wind was sustained at 64 mph in Westerly.In the weather center, our meteorologist were looking at wind speed forecast data from various computer models. While the computer wind speed forecasts near the ground were modest for the south shore, what really caught our attention was zone of very strong winds along the coast at 1500 meters above ground….115 mph….wow!  It was our thinking that,while not all of that 115 mph wind magnitude would reach ground level, at least 50-70% of it would. This is why we went with a forecast of hurricane fore winds on the south shore.

What had me most concerned was the storm surge potential….this why we were using the following forecast graphic below very often on our broadcast, (and we don’t use this depiction often unless its absolutely necessary)

Based on an already astronomically high tide (full moon), the wind speeds we were forecasting along and offshore, plus the trajectory of the wind (becoming onshore)…this was all pointing to a serious surge potential. Other factors for determining surge include the duration of the wind, the approach angle of the storm (from southeast to northwest), past surge history, and lastly the geography of our coastline and Narragansett bay. All of this was factored by our weather team to come up with our early warning forecast for the coastal surge. 

The photo below is along the south shore the next day…evidence of the water surge.

Photo from Providence Journal Staffer G. Wayne Miller

Good Morning…Click below to view updated video forecast on Sandy

http://www.wpri.com/dpp/weather/detailed_7_day/Todays_Weather_Discussion

Tony Petrarca

Good Evening From Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Storm surge deals with a “surge ” of  abnormally high water from the open ocean, which moves onshore…its the amount of water rise above what the daily normal high tide is … The height of the storm surge can vary from a few feet, to a staggering 15-18 ft. That kind of a surge is usually reserved for a major hurricane. The forecast storm surge for Sandy is 4-7 ft…however that does not include waves…large breaking waves on top of the 4-7 foot surge will create what we consider moderate to major coastal flooding along the coast on Monday

Storm surge height is determined by a number of things, including the strength of the storm, the tide cycle, wind direction and speed, the forward movement of the storm as well as the geography of the coastline. Stay tuned for updates.

Good Morning….From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Data I have been looking at, along with latests computer models, continues to show our area getting hit hard…especially the coast line.  Landfall will occur somewhere between New Jersey and Long Island/Block Island.  Lets looks at 3 of the newest  computer models that just came out…

The first is called the NAM model showing Sandy just south of New England at 2PM Monday with winds speeds along the coast sustained at 60 mph

Next model below, valid at same time 2PM Monday is the GFS.  Sandy is located in about same location with winds of 60-70 mph sustained

Data courtesy of WeatherBell

The 3rd model below is called the RPM model…it shows Sandy a bit further south near southern New Jersey…but the envelope of wind is so large, that this model is producing 60 mph sustained winds at the the coast.

Bottom line, the window area of possible landfall, ranges from Block Island to southern New Jersey…the fact that winds will gust to hurricane force during the astronomical high tide cycle Monday evening,  puts a high risk of serious coastal flooding to the south shore…The early call on forecast wind speeds would be 50-60 mph sustained on coast, with gusts to hurricane force, 70+mph.  Inland winds will run 30-40 mph sustained with gusts of 50-60 mph.  That magnitude is enough to knock down wires, poles, branches and trees. Rainfall estimates around 2-5″ from Monday thru Tuesday. There is a slight risk  of brief water spouts and weak tornadoes Monday

Tony Petrarca

Good Evening..

Working on new blog..will have it out in about 45 mins….so far, what I am looking at is still not good.

Significant impacts on the way..

Tony Petrarca