Tony Petrarca

This Just In….Wind Chill Advisory Issued.

January 2nd, 2014 at 10:35 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist  Tony Petrarca..

As expected, a Wind Chill Advisory ichill1s now in effect until 11 am. Feel like temperatures will run -15 to -25 in our northern suburbs.

 

 

 Meanwhile areas not shaded in blue will have sub zero wind chills also, but not as extreme as northern areas. 

Snowfall:  Right now getting reports of 2 to 5″ of snow snow far this evening  with more expected during the overnight hours.


Worst Of The Storm Starts Now…

January 2nd, 2014 at 7:19 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

Busy here in the weather center Tonight. All the pieces of this “atmospheric puzzle”coming together for a significant Nor’easter Tonight into Friday morning. Already seeing the winds gusting to 40 mph along the shore. Very cold air continues to drain down from southeast Cananda.  This will keep the precipitation all snow. Since it is so called , the snow will be very dry and fluffy and with winds so strong, the snow will blow and drift.  So far, seeing reports of 1-3 inches of snow in Rhode Island with much higher amounts in the parts of  northeast Massachusetts. I  expect snowfall rates at times to be 1 inch  per hour. Final snowfal amounts by Friday morning will range from 6 to 12 inches with the higher totals concentrated on southeastern Massachusetts, an dthe Boston Metro Area.  I feel confident that the snow accumulation forecast will verify at  least on the low end…so for the 6 to 8″ zone, at least 6″ is likey. In the 8-12″ zone, at least 8 inches is likely…bottom line, not all areas will get 12″ of snow.

snow12

 

Extreme wind chills will follow in the wake of the storm..skies will improve Friday, but remain frigid. Infact by later Friday night into dawn Saturday, the actual  air temperature may fall below zero, with the feel like temperatures as cold as -15 to -20 by dawn Friday.

wind chill

…..

time


Nor’easter Bears Down Tonight, Early Friday

January 2nd, 2014 at 6:33 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Our accumulation forecast remains on track….I will have a more detailed blog discussion within the hour. Worst of storm is now thru early Friday Morning…

snow12

 


Nor’easter To Impact Our Area. Late Night Update.

January 1st, 2014 at 11:11 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A slight modification…But otherwise forecast is still the same….Statewide 6-12 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts (red zone on map) across southeastern Massachusetts.  Light accumulations overnight Tonight and during the daylight hours of Thursday. Heaviest snow and wind Thu. Night into Friday morning. Winds by Friday dawn will be howling up to 40-5omph in gusts, creating near whiteout conditions, blowing and drifting  snow, and bitter sub zero wind chills. Travel will be difficult during that time period.  Check in with Michelle Muscatello on Eyewitness News starting at 430am for updates.

Tony Petrarca

updated snow map


.Winter Storm Warning In Effect…

January 1st, 2014 at 7:04 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

All the ingredients coming together for moderate to major snow fall across southern New England. Storm will also bring strong winds and some of the coldest air we have seen in several years. In fact wind chill temperatures expected to be well below zero Thursday night into Friday. Data that I have been looking at continues to increase confidence on a significant winter storm..a moderate to major snowfall

Plenty of cold air means all snow. An area of Artic high pressure anchored over Canada will act as the cold air “delivery system”. The combination of this strong high pressure to our north… and developing storm (low pressure) to our south will create a strong ” pressure gradient” …This is essentially the reason for the expected strong northeast wind set up. A long duration of northeast winds will transport Atlantic moisture and send it over the dome of very cold air…The net result brings enhancement to the snow amounts, especially across southeastern Massachusetts.

Colder air results in more snow. …snow that is created in a much colder enviorment (provided we have ample moisture), will tend to be dry and fluffier. .thus the snow accumulation depth is higher. If the storm were to occur with just marginally cold air, the accumulation efficiency is lower. This is not the case with this storm, the air is plenty cold.

Since confidence is high with the large scale features (meaning, “yes” a storm is coming)…what we will do the next 12 to 24 hours is continue to fine tune the “small scale structure” of the  storm ..such as specific snow amounts, locations, ..timing…duration.  However, at this point we don’t anticipate to make significant changes to the forecast we already have out. Can things change? …yes, so I would still recommend checking back with us.   Eyewitness News continues live at 10pm on FOX Providence and again on channel 12 at 11pm…you can follow us on Twitter and my Facebook page.  Of course, there is a wealth of weather info at wpri.com.

QUICK POINTS:

1. Snow overnight thru Thursday “Day” will be light with only small accumulations, coating to 1″ by morning…1-3″ by evening. Much more after 8pm Thursday

2. Heaviest snow and wind Thursday night into early Friday morning. Travel looks difficuly

3. Lets not forget the cold temperatures and wind…exceptional cold air by Thursday night into Friday with wind chills well below zero.

Strong wind gusts at coast 40-50 mph will produce “blizard like” conditions Thu. night into Friday AM

4. Power Outages?  Possible, especially across coastal Massachusetts where strongest winds are likely to occur

5. Schools??  Some cancellations Thursday…better chances of cancellations Friday. This is decided by individual towns and cities so check  our cancellation links before bed Tonight, and again early Thursday morning

Another blog update later this evening…

amounts

heads

Some important forecast links:

Discussion

http://www.wpri.com/weather/detailed-7-day/todays_weather_discussion

Closings

http://www.wpri.com/weather/closings

Winter Weather Page

http://www.wpri.com/weather/winter-weather

Power Outages

http://www.wpri.com/severe-weather/power-outage-database

 

 


Very Mild Weekend, Colder By Christmas, Ice Storm North

December 20th, 2013 at 6:51 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

Unseasonably mild air moves in this weekend along with high humidity, fog, clouds and rain showers. Winter weather will retreat into far northern New England where a major ice storm is likely. The map below is the high resolution RPM computer model. The various colors represent precipitation type. For our area, it’ s just plain rain showers at times this weekend. However, the pink color in far northern New England is freezing rain. A  significant accreation of ice on trees and powerlines is likely in northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. If you have  travel plans there this weekend use caution. Anything but winter here..infact by Sunday the temperatures may reach 60 degrees!

By Christmas Eve and Day (Tuesday, Wednesday) much colder air arrives, but it looks dry for the holiday.

icestorm

 High Resolution RPM Model Shows Weekend Ice Storm In Far Northern New England (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont)

Below is an example of what freezing rain can do do tree limbs. The extra ice load can produce thousands of pounds of added weight causing tree damage and downed powerlines…

ice-1

 ….


Snow Ends Later This Evening….Minor Accumulations

December 17th, 2013 at 6:54 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

 Good Evening

Latest radar trends points to the snow winding down after 9-10 pm.  A storm offshore is intensifying, but also moving away. This will limit snow amounts . The exception will be the Boston Metro, Route 495 belt . The 2-4 inch forecast has been scaled backed  to 1-3 inches.

Clearing skies overnight will give way to dry skies both Thursday and Friday….meanwhile a warming trend will start on Friday and extend thru the weekend. Temperatures wil rise to the 40s and even 50s .

accumzs

 

 

 


Winter Weather Advisory For Tuesday

December 16th, 2013 at 6:49 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening ….

Arctic cold front has passed thru our area and that means a big drop in temperature overnight…as low as 10-15 degrees by dawn Tuesday. Meanwhile a weak, fast moving storm will pass just to our south on Tuesday with a shield of light to moderate snow. Accumulations are not expected to be major, however a 2-4inch snow fall is likelyAt this point I am leaning towards the lower end of that forecast (2 inches). Since the air will be very cold, the snow will be dry and “fluffy”…..yes I did use the word fluffy.  However, dry fluffy snow tends to accumulate a little higher…that is why we have a snow range that goes as high as 4 inches in spots. Bottomline…I feel comfortable with at least 2 inches falling…with the possibility of 3-4″ in spots away from the coast…

 headlines

 

Early morning commute and kids heading out to school before 9 AM should be OK. Students coming home from school will have nieghboorhood side streets covered with a dusting to 1 inch of snow by 3pm, with additional accumulations after 3pm. Allow for some extra travel time…….Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca


Rapid Refreeze Today

December 15th, 2013 at 9:21 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good morning from Tony Petrarca. ..

After last nights 3 to 6 inch snowfall and rain….A rapid drop in temperatures will take over this morning and afternoon.  Wet surfaces, puddles and slush will freeze over. Already noting rapid temperature drops in our northern suburbs. Untreated surfaces will turn icy. If you can…remove slush from driveways and walkways now before it turns to hard ice later.

Already got report of rollover accident in Coventry on Weaver Hill Road near Harkney

Tony Petrarca


Dry Snow Is Now Slush. More Snow Tuesday

December 15th, 2013 at 7:49 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Morning from Tony Petrarca

Unless you measured the snow overnight…( I was taking measurements at 2am)….The snow pack has now been reduced with the expected change to rain. Statewide 3 to 6 inches fell with close to 7 inches in Harrisville RI. Intensifying storm is just offshore. As it pulls away strong winds will develop today and eventually bring much colder air back Today. In fact lows Tonight will fall to 15 to 20 degrees so any standing slush will freeze solid today…sooner you can clear walk and driveway the better. And to top it all off…more snow is on the way for Tuesday! Early call on this is for a quick hitter and staying as all snow Tuesday with cold air in place. Meanwhile as Pete mentioned….drier air moves in this afternoon.


Weekend Storm Update…

December 14th, 2013 at 12:28 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Morning…From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Yes its 12:46 am Saturday. Just a few quick points…. (Pete will be in early morning).  Arctic cold pouring in right now  will help to maintain a storm that will feature 70% all snow and 30% Rain And Sleet.  The pavement temperatures are very cold, so once the first flakes fall, they will stick right away to untreated roads.  A thin coating on roads may start as early as 8pm Saturday…with up to 1 inch by 10pm.

Snowfall rates for a time will be 1-2 inches per hour late Saturday night.  By 2am Sunday I expect 3-5 inches of snow and still snowing, at least in northern suburbs. The coast and parts of Washington County will be mixing with sleet then. A change to rain will cover most areas by daybreak Sunday. The map below are snow totals after midnight Saturday BEFORE the change to sleet and rain. If the change to sleet and rain is delayed or less pronounced, then higher snow totals will occur. If the change to rain is quicker than  expected, lower snow totals will occur.

accumzs

 Latest Accumulation Forecast

 While the map above is one put together by our weather team….the map below is from one of  our high resolution computer models called the RPM. These are raw number outputs (no human tweeking). It still shows a moderate snowfall in far northern suburbs with only 2-4 inches along the south shore. Now… models are not perfect or always correct,  but we certainly use them for guidance.

rpmsnow


Snow Moves Out..Watch For Black Ice Tonight

December 10th, 2013 at 7:07 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Tony Petrarca….

Here  are a few towns and their snowfall totals as reported by various weather watchers. There was a wide range in amounts from town to town. Some spots only a slushy coating…other areas like Western Cranston picked up 3-4 inches. The amount of snow Today was dependent on where  (1) small heavy bands of snow set up, as well as  (2)  how cold it was in certain locations. For example it snowed all day in some places, but the flakes kept melting on the ground and not sticking. Locations that had slightly colder temps, the snow would stick. There is a big difference if its snowing at 35 degrees or at 30 degrees.  One way to get  snow to accumulate when temps are above freezing,  is to have the snow come down very hard…this in turn will overwhelm any melting on pavement.

,whay fell


Winter Weather Advisory Extended Till 8PM

December 10th, 2013 at 4:12 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meterologist Tony Petrarca…

The back edge of the snow is passing thru eastern Connecticutt and will clear the entire area by 7-8pm. Additional light accumulations will continue. Latest radar image below shows a few more hours of snow. Snow amounts  Today have had a huge range from town to town. A slushy coating to up to 2 inches in other areas. Pavement is wet, and with dropping temps Tonight black ice will form.. Final snow totals will be 1-3″….however some communtites will come in  under 1″ of snow.  Very cold air moves in for rest of week.  Next storm potential arrives this weekend.

doppppp

 

 

 

Latest Radar…

 


Round Two Of Wintry Weather On The Way…

December 9th, 2013 at 6:52 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from meteorologist  Tony Petrarca..

After this morning’s slush and ice, more winter weather is on the way. Things will be  different this time around. Unlike  Today, the precipitation should  stay all snow. The arrival time is around 9-10am…then ending by late afternoon or early evening, so the duration is only 6 to 7 hours. As of now, forecast amounts still looks like as little as 1 inch, to as much as 3 inches. New data is always coming into our weather office, so check back Tonight during our 10 pm news on Fox Providence and at 11pm on channel 12 Eyewitness News to see if these numbers have to be adjusted.

Meanwhile sharply colder air moves in for mid week and extends thru the weekend.  Watching  storm potential for this weekend with snow ice and rain at  some point Saturday into Sunday.

headlines


Small Accumulations This Morning…

December 9th, 2013 at 5:33 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good morning from Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Weak storm system moving thru with a light mixture of snow and freezing drizzle. Latest Radar continues to show fragmented snow bands that are not very organized over our area.  The steady heavier moisture is just offshore. ..Most of this will stay offshore. The net  result will be to maintain our forecast of 1 inch or less of snow. Already starting to see the change to freezing rain near the coast…This change over will advance inland this morning. Untreated surfaces will be slick so allow extra travel time. Morning commute will be slow at times. Eventually temperatures go above freezing by noontime with just plain rain. It looks like another chance of snow for Tuesday with some small accumulations.


A More Active Weather Pattern Ahead…

December 4th, 2013 at 3:57 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

Good Evening  …

A more active weather scenario will be  setting up over the next several days. The highlight is the current blast of bitter cold air pouring out of the northern plains.  The leading edge of this is called an Arctic Cold Front. This air will move into our area later Friday Night into the weekend…However it will not be as frigid as what is occurring out west.  As the Arctic front approaches Friday. .waves of low pressure ( little storms) will ride along the front bringing rain to our area. As the rain moves out late Friday night….colder air moves in, changing the rain to a few hours of wet snow. At this point little if any  accumulation expected….However in central Massachusetts (Mass.Pike) a few inches are possible.

There after, cold dry air settles in for  “most” of weekend. Meanwhile the Arctic front will lie just to our south and another storm, with Atlantic moisture, will approach later Sunday Night.  Now with cold  in place. …we will see a period of snow and sleet Sunday Night changing over to freezing rain by Monday morning…especially areas away from coast.

sun night

Eventually milder air takes over Monday to change any icy rain over to plain rain. Bottom line…active weather next several days with significant day to day changes in temperatures and  various forms of precipitation.

….Tony Petrarca


Impressive Wind Gusts Wednesday…

November 26th, 2013 at 9:51 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Just looking at some new data coming in.  The map below are the forecasted wind gusts for Wednesday 10am… Coastal areas may see brief gusts up to 60mph with inland locations gusting to 40-55 mph.  Im getting ready for the 10pm news on Fox Providence….tune in for my forecast at 10pm….and again around 10:15pm.  Another update on channel 12 starting at 11pm

 

gusts


Latest on Approaching Storm….

November 26th, 2013 at 6:57 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Just finished analyzing some new data.  Everything coming together to produce widespread heavy rain and strong winds around here later Tonight into Wednesday. High Wind Warning remains in effect along with a Flood Watch.

highwinfs

 

Southerly winds increase overnight, gusting to over 50+ mph by morning. This may leaded to isolaated power outages . Watch for down limbs and powerlines when traveling Wednesday.  Rainfall totals by Wednesday Evening will range from 2-3 inches with isolated 4inch amounts. Leaf clogged storm drains will create localized street flooding. Stay tuned for additional blog updates….next one around 9:45pm.

 rainfall

 

 

………….

Tony R Petrarca


Colder Weather Pattern Ahead

November 20th, 2013 at 9:18 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good morning

Looking at some of our extended range (5-10 days) computer data, still indicating two significant shots of cold Arctic air. The first blast arrives this weekend along with bitter wind chills Saturday night  into Sunday. Next shot of very cold air  reloads for Thanksgiving weekend. The Thanksgiving period is a “potentially”  interesting one as some moisture may try to move in producing some cold rain and or inland snow…..way to early to call. Meanwhile the map below shows the temperature anomalies that will set up next week and a half….Chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca

610temp.new

 


Late Season Tropical Storm…

November 18th, 2013 at 9:43 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening…

With only a few weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, a new storm has formed in the central Atlantic.  Melissa is being categorized as a sub-tropical storm meaning its entire structure is not entirely “tropical”  The storm has winds of 60 mph. located over 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.  Melissa may get close to hurricane force winds next 36 hours before weaking after that.  A threat to land is not expected as the storm tracks into the colder waters of the north Atlantic next several days.  Whats left of the storm may come close to southern tip of Greenland, but a  United States impact is “highly” unlikely….   Tony Petrarca

melissa


Saturday Red Sox Parade

November 1st, 2013 at 3:45 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening….

Wow…already November and Todays high temperatures reached 70 degrees!  What’s better than that?…How about a Red Sox World Series Parade. It kicks off Saturday at 10am….click here for details.  Weather looks good in Boston with dry and pleasant tempertures, light breezes. Saturday is the perefect time for this celebration since Sunday looks windy and much colder.  Enjoy the day and parade !!

–Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca..

sox rally

 


Halloween Forecast And Friday Storm.

October 30th, 2013 at 6:47 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening….

The good news with Halloween evening, the temperatures will be very mild…around 55-60  between 5 and 9pm.  There is still the  chance for some passing showers…however it does not look widespread or very heavy.  The weather theme  is no “washout” despite the shower risk.

Winds will continue to increase later Thursday Night bringing in the mild temperartures. This is in advance of a strong storm that will pass thru the Great Lakes on Friday. For us  locally it means strong southwest gales Friday (40-45mph) along with widespread rain showers.   A High Wind Advisory “may” be issued Friday..stay tuned for updates.

Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

hallloween

 


Orionid Meteor Shower Late Tonight…

October 21st, 2013 at 6:23 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

The annual Orionid meteor shower for late Tonight (peaks during pre-dawn hours 5am). Skies will average mostly clear, however moon light will make some of the more faint shooting stars more difficult to see at times.  Click here to see Orionid Update that aired on our newscast this evebing

The following is from stardate.org

The gibbous Moon, which is about 90 percent full tonight, rises by mid-evening and soars high across the sky during the night. Its light will overpower all but the brightest of the meteors.

 

Name Date of Peak Moon
Quadrantids Night of January 2 Sets shortly before dawn
Lyrids Night of April 21 In view most of the night
Eta Aquarids Nights of May 4/5 Early morning crescent
Perseids Nights of August 11/12 Sets after midnight
Orionids Night of October 21 In view most of the night
Leonids Night of November 16 Full
Geminids Nights of December 12, 13 In view most of the night

NOTES These are approximate times for the Lower 48 states; actual shower times can vary. Bright moonlight makes it difficult to see all but the brightest meteors.

What is a meteor shower?

A meteor shower is a spike in the number of meteors or “shooting stars” that streak through the night sky.

Most meteor showers are spawned by comets. As a comet orbits the Sun it sheds an icy, dusty debris stream along its orbit. If Earth travels through this stream, we will see a meteor shower. Although the meteors can appear anywhere in the sky, if you trace their paths, the meteors in each shower appear to “rain” into the sky from the same region.

Meteor showers are named for the constellation that coincides with this region in the sky, a spot known as the radiant. For instance, the radiant for the Leonid meteor shower is in the constellation Leo. The Perseid meteor shower is so named because meteors appear to fall from a point in the constellation Perseus. Tonights Orionid shower are from fragments of Haleys Comet

What are shooting stars?

“Shooting stars” and “falling stars” are both names that describe meteors — streaks of light across the night sky caused by small bits of interplanetary rock and debris called meteoroids vaporizing high in Earth’s upper atmosphere. Traveling at tens of thousands of miles an hour, meteoroids quickly ignite from the searing friction with the atmosphere, 30 to 80 miles above the ground. Almost all are destroyed in this process; the rare few that survive and hit the ground are known as meteorites.

When a meteor appears, it seems to “shoot” quickly across the sky, and its small size and intense brightness might make you think it is a star. If you’re lucky enough to spot a meteorite (a meteor that makes it all the way to the ground), and see where it hits, it’s easy to think you just saw a star “fall.”

How can I best view a meteor shower?

Get away from the glow of city lights and toward the constellation from which the meteors will appear to radiate.

After you’ve escaped the city glow, find a dark, secluded spot where oncoming car headlights will not periodically ruin your sensitive night vision. Look for state or city parks or other safe, dark sites.

Once you have settled at your observing spot, lie back or position yourself so the horizon appears at the edge of your peripheral vision, with the stars and sky filling your field of view. Meteors will instantly grab your attention as they streak by.

 

 


Foliage This Weekend

October 18th, 2013 at 6:53 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

Here is the latest Foliage report. I just got back from North Conway New Hampshire. The color was nice there, but showing signs of being just past  peak….infact the drive along the Kangamangus highway had leaves already dropped on 50% off the trees. Bottom line, the best color continues to move south into our area next few weeks.  I drove thru Foster And Clayville this morning in the northwest part of state and the color was very nice.  Send us your photos at reportit@wpri.com

Foliage new

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

vv


Latest On Tropical Storm Karen…

October 3rd, 2013 at 11:50 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…..(updated 12:10am Friday)

Latest forecast has Karen approaching the Gulf coast (Near New Orleans) this weekend as a strong tropical storm and not a hurricane. However, winds may gust to hurricne force. There are a number of factors  in the atmosphere that can make a storm get stronger or weaker. Even though tropical storms and hurricane have strong winds “within” them, they do like to be in an enviorment with very strong winds “surrounding”  them. This is called “wind shear“. Wind shear will  tend to disrupt a storms symetrical structure. Right now, Karen is being influenced by some shear. Imagine it this way (bear with me on this strange comparison).  Let say you are in a car moving at 80 mph. Your passenger is holding a big stick of cotton candy (don’t laugh, just go with me on this).  Now this stick of cotton candy is the hurricane….now open the window at 80 mph, and place that cotton candy stick outside….what happens….the pile of candy gets shreaded and torn apart….that is what wind shear can do to a hurricane. 

Also tropical systems need to be in an enviorment that is very humid.  Dry air will disrupt the formation of  thunderstorms and thus rising air. At this time, Karen has some dry air being ingested…What does all of this mean?….Karen will still be a disruptive storm, but its ability for rapid development into a major hurricane is unlikely…stay tuned…some of the remnant moisture from Karen may move into New England Monday and Tuesday of next week with some rain

 

025909W5_NL_sm


Watching The Tropics……Karen ???

October 2nd, 2013 at 6:41 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Watching an organized area of thunderstorms in the Caribbean which will move into the Gulf Of Mexico.  The system has the potential to be the next named tropical storm….Karen.  Residents along the upper Gulf coast will need to monitor. Infact, if the system does develop, there is a chance that some of the remnant moisture could give our area some rain by early next week.

Below is the latest satellite photo showing moisture in the northwest Caribbean…

gulf storm

 

 We use various computer models to predict tropical systems….the map below represents various computer tracks over the next several days….there is a large “agreement” have a possible landfall somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle….from there the remnant moisture/rain may try to move into New England next week…

 AL97_current

 Model Data Courtesy Of  WeatherBell

 

 

 

 

 

 


Watching Storm Potential Monday

September 27th, 2013 at 4:00 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..

 All week we have been talking about a potential ocean storm for the Monday time frame. It still looks like a significant storm will form over the ocean. Up until a few days ago, the storm was expected to be far enough offshore to spare us any rain or wind. We are now seeing indications of this system tracking a bit closer. As a result, some rain and wind is  back in the forecast for Monday, the magnitude of both will be determined next few days as we analyze more data….. so stay tuned for updates.

monday storm

 

Forecast map below is from one of our more reliable high resolution models called the “RPM”  It indicates a stronger storm closer to the coast by Monday morning….infact it even hints the storm may take on “tropical characteristics”. We can sometimes get what is known as a “hybrid” storm or “sub-tropical storm”  In other words, structure-wise, the storm has hints of warm air near its center, like a tropical storm. Bottom line, the storm needs to be watched as far as the magnitude of any potential rain and wind. Stay tuned for updates…in the meantime, the weekend looks nice……..Tony Petrarca

rpm2

 

 RPM Model Valid 10am Monday

 

 


Worst Natural Disaster In Southern New England History !

September 20th, 2013 at 11:48 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

1938 hurricane

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 City Hall Downtown Providence As Massive Storm Surge Sweeps Thru.

 

From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

On Sept 21st 1938 Southern New Englanders woke up to a tranquil day.  Hard to imagine that later that afternoon one of the worst hurricanes to strike the United States was heading our way…and without warning.  Meteorologists back then knew about offshore hurricane, but with the lack of Today’s technology, the storm was not forecasted to hit, but rather stay offshore. The net result would be millions of dollars in damage, and hundreds of lives lost in Long Island and New England..

On this 75th Anniversary The National Weather Service Taunton has put togther a very impressive look back at this historic storm.

We share this web link with you……Click here: 1938 Hurricane


Autumn Chill Late Tonight, Dawn Tuesday

September 16th, 2013 at 6:42 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..

Cold front that gave us some showers this morning is now offshore. Behind this front, much cooler drier air will filter in next 24-36 hours. Low temperatures around dawn Tuesday will range from the upper 30s in northwest RI, to the upper 40s along the shore… afternoon highs Tuesday with lots of sunshine only 60-65, but overall a nice early Autumn Day

 

low temps

 

 Tuesday Afternoon Day Planner….Blue Skies But On The Cool Side……..

tuesday clock

 

 

 

 

 

 


Strong Cold Front To Bring Big Changes…

September 12th, 2013 at 8:53 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

Strong cold front approaching this evening and overnight will bring a round of heavy showers and thunderstorms. The blue line on the map below is the front, the leading edge of much cooler and drier air. Some storms after 10pm Tonight will be locally strong with downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning..

cold front 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 It looks like this cold front will slow down by Friday morning as low pressure forms along it just offshore….that combined with a weather disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will keep Friday unsettled with showers and thunderstorms at times…

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cold front2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Saturday the cold front is well offshore with breezy dry. much cooler air moving in. Skies will average partly cloudy duriing the afternoon with a real feel of Autumn in the air

saturday fropa