Tony Petrarca

Microbursts…

September 4th, 2013 at 9:47 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

Here is a brief follow up on the previous detailed blog regarding yesterday’s damaging thunderstorm winds… Tuesday’s  thunderstorms were extending 30,000 ft up  in the atmosphere!!

 Intially a tremendous amount of water droplets (rain) and small hail were suspended high above inside the thunderstorm cloud. Eventually the water and ice falls to the ground. This process drags cool air and high winds from above, and “pulls”  it  to the bottom of the cloud and then down to the ground.  The process of the hail and rain water pulling or “dragging” the  air from the top of this 30,000 foot cloud, down to the ground is called “precipitation drag”  This dragged air is brought down at a high rate of speed. The wind speed can range from 40mph to over 100 mph in rare cases. As the air rushes down the tall thunderstorm “collapses” and falls apart. Yesterday’s winds were estimated to be 60-80mph…….Tony Petrarca

microburts explainer


Watching The Tropics

September 4th, 2013 at 3:32 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Latest Satellite Photo Shows Cluster Of Thunderstorms Associated With A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Near Puerto Rico. We Will Continue To Track And Monitor This For “Possible” Tropical Storm Development. At this point it has a low to moderate chance for tropical storm formation…stay tuned for updates…………Tony Petrarca

invest92

 

The map below shows  various computer model forecast tracks next several days….

 invest speghetti plot

 

 

 


This Date In Weather History, August 28, 2011

August 28th, 2013 at 3:07 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

Good Afternoon From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..

Satellite Image from 2 yrs ago of Irene Headed For New England….4o people killed along the East Coast

Highest gust:  83 mph Barrington RI

Irene Satellite Photo 2011     

 

 

 

 

 

Irene was the first hurricane to hit the United States since Hurricane Ike struck Texas in September 2008.

Irene was the first storm to threaten the New York City area since Hurricane Gloria in September 1985.

On Saturday, August 27, Irene’s hurricane force winds extended outward up to 90 miles from the center

and tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 290 miles.

Irene was similar in size to Hurricane Katrina nearly six years ago to the date. Katrina’s hurricane force

winds extended outward about 104 miles with tropical storm force winds felt outward 230 miles.

River flooding records were broken in 26 rivers. New Jersey (8), New York (14), Vermont (4).

At least 40 people have died as a result of the storm. (8/30; various media reports)

About 3.5 million customers were without power; that’s about 9 million people (media reports)

80 million people within 200 miles of storm track (source: CIESEN, Columbia University)

49 million people within 100 miles of storm track (source: CIESEN, Columbia University)

2.3 million people were under mandatory evacuation orders. 1 million in New Jersey, 315,000 in

Maryland, 300,000 in North Carolina, 200,000 in Virginia, 100,000 in Delaware, and 300,000 people in

New York City.

10,000 flights canceled for August 27

28. SWF, JFK, LGA, PHL, ISP and EWR airports were closed.

Numerous roads are closed in New Jersey and PA due to flooding and downed limbs, including portions

of I78, I80, I287 and I

95. 140 roads closed in MD due to downed trees and 46 due to flooding.

The New York Mass Transit Authority (MTA) stopped subway, bus, and Long Island Rail Road, and Metro

 

North Railroad services were shut down. NJ Transit and Path trains also ceased operations.

Amtrak canceled all service on the Northeast corridor.

Hurricane Irene will be the 10th billion dollar disaster in 2011. This 10th U.S. billiondollar disaster

officially breaks the annual record dating back to 1980.

(above stats, data courtesy of NOAA)

 

 

 


New Tropical Storm Forms In Atlantic

August 15th, 2013 at 3:15 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

The 5th named storm of the season has formed…Tropical Storm Erin. located about 100 miles west-southwest ofCape Verde Islands with winds of 40 mph, moving  west northwest at 15 mph. Below is a high resolution satellite photo showing the swirl of clouds off the African coast…

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 26.5 WEST. ERIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH…24 KM/H…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES…55 KM…
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB…29.71 INCHES.

erin vis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is the forecast track for Erin over the next several days….stay tuned for updates.

erin track 1


Tropical Depression #5 Forms…

August 14th, 2013 at 11:31 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening …..

Satellite pictures show Tropical Depression #5 has formed near Cape Verde Islands.  Also another area in the Caribbean is showing signs (greater than 70% chance) of development too..

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC…
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 11 PM
———————————————–
LOCATION…14.0N 23.5W
ABOUT 80 MI…130 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO…SANTIAGO…
FOGO…AND BRAVA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO…SANTIAGO…FOGO…AND
BRAVA

Chief Meteorlogist Tony Petrarca

tropics

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This next satellite photo shows a cluster of thunderstorms organizing in the Caribbean. Development is likely next few days. This “potential ” storm will head for the Gulf Of Mexico

atl1


How “DEW” you do……

August 7th, 2013 at 6:13 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

After several days of very dry refreshing air, humidity levels will be on the rise Thursday and Friday. This extra moisture (water vapor) in the air will help to enhance showers and thunderstorms (at times) next few days.  A cool front will move offshore by Saturday morning…..behind  this front,  the air dries out for most of the weekend.  Our “Dew Points” will take a bit of a rollercoaster ride…..low dew points now….much higher Thursday and Friday….then dropping by the weekend. 

So… what is the Dew Point?   It’s a direct measurement of how much humidity is in the air. The higher the number, the higher the moisture content.  Let’s say the dew point at night is 65 degrees….now if the air temperature at night cools to 65, then clouds, fog or dew will form. 

 dewss

 

Tony Petrarca


July 2013 Review…. A Hot Month

July 31st, 2013 at 6:45 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

July 2013 was a very warm to hot  month, which featured three heat waves . There was a total of 11 days with temperatures of 90 degrees or higher and 4 days with temperatures between 87-89 degrees.

The average temperature for the month (day plus night temps) was 78.6 degrees. That is +5.1 degrees above normal. Night were very warm too, coupled with high humidity….On 19 overnights, the temperatures never dropped below 70 degrees.

 

Heat wave #1 was from July 4 thru the 8th

Heat wave #2 was from July 14 thru the 16th

Heat wave #3 resumed July 18th thru the 20th

 

The hottest day occurred on the 19th as temperatures soared to 98 degrees.  The coolest temperature was 60 degrees on the 25th.

 

Rainfall for the month came in at 2.26 inches which is 0.90 inches below average. Keep in mind, that number is for Green Airport in Warwick, where the official state weather records are kept. Summertime precipitation has a wide variability from place to place due to the scattered nature of showers and thunderstorms.


Dorian Weakens

July 26th, 2013 at 6:48 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening ….

At one point Tropical Storm Dorian had winds of 60 mph. The storm has become poorly organized with wind speeds down to 45 mph. Infact  the forecast takes it below tropical storm strength to what is called a tropical depression. Below, is the 5 fay forecast….if the storm even holds together, it will track west northwest, approaching eastern tip of Cuba as a depression by next Tuesday. 

Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

dd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dorian 5 Day Forecast Track

Image below is the latest “Daytime”  high resolution satellite picture.  We are seeing signs that the main center of circulation falling apart as wind shear weakens the storm. What is wind shear?  Ofcourse tropical storms and hurricanes are winds storms themselves, however these storms do not do well  moving thru enviorements where the winds outside and above the storm itself  are strong and changing direction. That is wind shear..vis0-lalo

 

 

 

 

uuuu

 

 


Showers Return Thursday And Friday

July 25th, 2013 at 12:07 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Morning (yes its 12:03am) From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Just a quick update on what I am thinking for next few days…

The cool front that went thru Wednesday Evening (that’s the blue line on the map below) has stalled offshore.  That “blue line boundary” separates humid air to the south of it, and drier less humid air to the north.  A storm (area of  low presure)  will form on the front and drift in our direction Thursday into Friday. This will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms during that time period.  Showers will move out Friday evening, seting up for a warm dry sunny Saturday….

stalled front


Tropical Storm Dorian

July 24th, 2013 at 6:48 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

The 4th named storm of the hurricane season has formed..Dorian.  It is far out at sea, actually closer to the coast of Africa than the United States, so many days to watch the developments.  By August and certainly September we start seeing more storms form in this part of the Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands.  Storms like Dorian have a very long  journey across the Atlantic if they are to reach the United States. Many atmospheric variables come into play..some which favor a storm sustaining, others which cause them to weaken. Below is  a map which shows typical paths of storms born of the Cape Verde Islands…

500px-Cape_Verde_hurricane_track

 

 

 

 

 

 

Infact the great 1938 New England hurricane formed off the coast of Africa.   We will keep a close on on Dorian. The  5 days forecast maintains at least tropical storm strength as it approaches near Puerto Rico early next week as  minimal tropical storm.

ddorian

 

 

 

 

 

Dorain  5 Day Forecast Track

 


Severe Storms Saturday Will Break The Heat….

July 17th, 2013 at 12:37 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Early Weds. Morning From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Looking ahead to Saturday….all the “ingredients” may come together to produce strong to severe thunderstorms.  The combination of heat, humidity, an approaching cold front and wind speeds increasing in the upper levels of the atmosphere (just to name a few), will help develop these storms later in the day…..stay tuned for updates. This strong cold front will break the heat wave, bringing relief on Sunday.

saturday

 Saturday Afternoon Forecast Map Shows Strong Cold Front


A 5-7 Day New England Heat Wave…

July 15th, 2013 at 6:54 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..

Its not just the heat, its the humidity too. In the winter we have the feel like temperature called the “Wind Chill”. In the Summer it’s called the “Heat Index”. The combination of the high humidity makes the already hot temperatures feel hotter. The heat index will be approaching over 100 degrees Tuesday in those areas shaded in pink…now  ALL locations will be hot Tuesday, but the most significant heat index values will be those areas shaded in pink on the map below.

One way our bodies cool off is by having the perspiration on our skin evaporating…the evaporation process removes heat and our body temperture cools. However when the humidity in the air is very high, it is more difficult for evaporation to occur and our body temperature does not cool…hence the heat index.

heat index

 

 

 

 

 

 


New England Tornadoes

July 11th, 2013 at 6:39 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca

While tornadoes in New England are not a common occurance in terms of frequency. we certainly have a history.  As noted in Pete Mangione’s  previous blog, it was a confirmed Tornado just 25 miles from the Rhode Island border yesterday evening. I found some data on New England tornado locations and path lengths.  Red lines on the map below are past tracks of twisters. A few notable things to point out…1) The maximum frequency is across the Connecticutt River Valley And Central Massachusetts…..2) Notice the lack of activity near the coast.  Keep in mind, tornadoes form inside of severe thunderstorms…severe thunderstorms need very warm to hot air to maintain intensity. Many times on  a Summer Afternoon cool, ocean air will keep temperatures across the southern 1/3 of the state cooler, so thunderstorms tend to be weaker. That’s not to say the coast does not see violent thunder, but it is less frequent. 

 

 

 506px-New_England_tornado_paths[1]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New England Tornado Tracks


Tornado Touches Down Over R.I. Border

July 10th, 2013 at 10:06 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

Tornado touched down early the evening in northeast Connecticut.  As the tornadic thunderstorm approached northwest Rhode Island it diminished significantly. Below is a radar image of  the small, but strong storm over northeast Conn. Myself and meteorologist TJ DelSanto were concerned about this storm due to the “shape” of the radar signiture.  The subtle hook like shape is an indicator of some rotation within the storm. After the tornado warning was issued for northeast Conn., a picture of the tornado on our social media came in, showing the actual twister on the ground…and all of this just 20-25 miles away from the Rhode Island border! 

 

hook echo Click Here For Latest

 

 

torn storrs Ct

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

uuuuuu


Chantal Update

July 8th, 2013 at 6:49 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening….

Tropical Storm Chantal has not become better developed as of yet….however, over the next few days the storm is expected to get a bit stronger, followed by some weakening as it approaches the Bahamas by Saturday.  Storm is still far away, located about  390 miles east of Barbados.

What is interesting about this storm is the location and time of year it formed. We usually don’t see too many storms form in this part of the Atlantic in early July.  This may be a sign of things to come as far as the hurricane season as a whole which is expected to be very active.  Thanks for checking our blog…stay tuned for updates this week on future movements on Chantal……Tony Petrarca

chantal


Unsettled Weather Pattern (At Times)

June 26th, 2013 at 7:11 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

When we refer to the weather “pattern” we are talking about a  certain kind of weather that sets up for several days to  several weeks.  The weather players  that are setting up in the atmosphere right now will maintain right thru next week. The map below shows the “Players”. One is an area of low pressure across the upper Mid-West and Great Lakes. The other is an area of High pressure offshore (sometimes called the Bermuda High). Both will be parked in place thru early next week. The wind flow around both systems is such that warm and humid air will be drawn into our area (its already here). This air is “unstable” meaning it has the ability to rise very easily.  Rising air creates showers and thunder. The faster the air rises, the more severe  a thunderstorm can be.  Now this doesn’t mean each day is going to be raining non-stop every hour. There will be “rain-free” stretches too….but, when it does rain, heavy downpours can happen. That is why a “Flash Flood Watch” has been issued for Thursday and Friday.

unsettled

 

 

 

 

 


RIVER UPDATES

June 14th, 2013 at 7:00 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

My Latest Video Forecast Click Here

Even though the rain has ended an additional slight rise in water levels will continue to due runnoff. While most rivers will experience “minor” flooding, the Pawtuxet will range a  flood range as “Moderate” Tonight into Saturday. Stay tuned for updates

river update

 

 

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACKSTONE RIVER AT WOONSOCKET.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO SATURDAY MORNING…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS
  CANCELLED.
* AT  4:16 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.4 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT AND
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 9.1 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
  RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW.
* IMPACT…AT 9.0 FEET…FLOODING MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOWER
  PARKING AREA TO THE ALBION MILL APARTMENTS. LOWER LYING
  RESIDENTIAL AREAS ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS
  LINE…INCLUDING THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE RIVER ISLAND CONDOMINIUMS
  IN WOONSOCKET…MAY BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. BUSINESSES ALONG
  THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

 

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PAWTUXET RIVER AT CRANSTON.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE…OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT  3:45 PM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.0 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST…THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 11.2 FEET
  AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THEN BEGIN FALLING ON SUNDAY BUT STILL
  REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
* IMPACT…AT 11.0 FEET…STRUCTURES AND HOMES ARE IMPACTED IN LOW
  LYING SECTIONS OF WARWICK.  AFFECTED AREAS INCLUDE HOMES AND
  BUSINESSES ON WELLINGTON AVENUE AND AVERY ROAD IN CRANSTON…AS
  WELL AS PIONEER AVENUE…BELLOWS STREET…VENTURI AVENUE AND A
  PORTION OF RIVER STREET IN WARWICK.

 

 

 

 

 


Pawtuxet River History

June 13th, 2013 at 9:32 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meterologist  Tony Petrarca

With more rain Tonight, rivers and streams continue to rise. However any flooding is expected to be minor to boderline moderate. Ofcourse, there will always be comparisons to the historic floods of 2010. This current flood threat is no where close to being a repeat of 2010. In this current situation, the forecast for the Pawtuxet is 1-2 feet above floodstage.  Back in 2010 it was a staggering 12 feet above flood stage, making it one of the worst floods in 100 years. Bottomline, history will not repeat itself. Nonetheless even minor flooding is still too much water .  Low lying residents along the Pawtuxet, Pawcatuck and other rivers should monitor weather forecasts next 24 hours.

riversn

 


Another Rainstorm On The Way…

June 12th, 2013 at 4:54 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon/Evening ….

This incredible wet June weather pattern continues. Storm system on Thursday will bring widespread heavy rain, starting Thursday afternoon and night. It will taper to lighter showers by Friday morning  (Weekend will be nice).  Ofcourse the ground remains very saturated from all the rain since last Friday. Rivers remain high too. Expecting rainfall totals with this next storm to range from  1 to 3″ by Friday morning. This will more than likely create some street and urban flooding in those areas with “poor drainage”  Moderate flooding will occur on some rivers by late Thursday Night iinto Friday morning. A Flood Watch has been issued again starting Thursday afternoon.

Below is a rain total forecast from one of our high resolution models called the RPM.  It is indicating 1-3″ of rain. Based on data we have been looking at here in the Pinpoint Weather Center, we agree with this model output.

 

RPM qpf2km

Stay tuned for updates over the next few days. Thanks for logging  on to wpri.com  weather blog

Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

 


Minor Flooding Continues On Pawtuxet and Pawcatuck Rivers…

June 11th, 2013 at 8:25 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Latest numbers on Rivers….

Pawcatuck River is at 7.8 ft….that’s about  8inches above flood stage. A slow rise will contine overnight.

Pawtuxet Rver is at 10.46 ft.   That is 1.5 feet above flood stage which is minor  to boderline  moderate flooding. A slow rise to 11 feet expected overnight, then slowly receeding Wednesday

The problem….more rain expected Thursday PM into Friday morning.


Still Need To Monitor Rivers And Streams Thu Tuesday…

June 10th, 2013 at 6:28 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….

More rain moving in next 24 hours. Not as much as Friday’s storm, we are expecting 1-2 inches. That in itself is not extreme, however the ground  is still saturated and rivers still swollen from Friday’s rain.  Keeping an eye on all rivers like the Pawcatuck, Pocassett, Pawtuxet and Blackstone to name a few. At this point the only River Flood Warning in effect is the Pawtuxet. That river expected to go 1-2 feet above flood stage which is minor to moderate (see graph below). At this point the Blackstone expected to swell but stay below flood. Pawcatuck is near flood stage now (7 feet) and minor flooding is likely. If we get more than  the 1-2 inches of rain we are currently forecasting, then  a more significant flooding will occur on these rivers. Stay tuned…

river 2_hg

 


New Rainfall Totals Since Friday Morning…

June 7th, 2013 at 11:59 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….as of 11:56pm Friday, up to 3-6 inches of rain has fallen creating flooding problems across the region. Rain will continue overnight with still the risk of flash flooding. Rain ends by 8am Saturday. Local rivers and stream will still need to be monitored thru Saturday Morning

New rain


FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT

June 7th, 2013 at 6:56 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca..

Flood Warning has just been issued…Very heavy rain next several hours will lead to poor drainage and urban flooding in some areas. Also local rivers and streams will need to be watched. The map below shows how much rain has fallen so far since 6pm, but more is on the way.

Final totals will range from 2-4 inches by 7am Saturday. Stay tuned to Eyewitness News for updates

 rain amounts


Minor Flooding Possible Along Pawtuxet River Late Tonight

June 7th, 2013 at 2:48 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca……

As of 1:45pm Today the Pawtuxet is well BELOW flood stage. However, with 2-4 inches of rain expected, minor flooding is possible after midnight Tonight into Saturday morning on the river. The graph below shows a forcecast rise of 1 foot above flood stage overnight.

Stay tuned for updates. Smaller rivers and streams of a slightly higher chance of flooding overnight.

 crar1_hg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile the Blackstone River in Woonsocket will rise close to 8 feet by dawn Saturday, That is 1 foot below flood stage, so this river will need to be monitored closely should rainfall totals be higher tahn expected.

woor1_hg


Midnight Andrea Update

June 7th, 2013 at 12:14 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good early Friday morning from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

I just finished looking at new data.  A storm like last year’s Sandy is highly unlikely. However, some significant weather in the form of  heavy rain and some gusty winds are  likely…

Here is the lastest track forecast…storm makes its closest approach to our coast between 5-8am Saturday. It will not be a Tropical Storm at that time, even though gale force winds are likely on the south shore.

new track

 

This track will produce rainfall totals of 2-4″ from Friday morning thru Friday Night. The heaviest rain will  fall Friday Afternoon into Friday Night, ending early Saturday morning.  Street and urban flooding “possible” later Friday Afternoon/Night. We will need to monitor local rivers and streams.

While the storm is not expected to bring severe wind….some gale force winds of 35-45 mph in gusts, likely late Friday night along the south shore and islands. The time frame with this is roughly 12am -6am Saturday. The map below is a forecast of wind gusts late Friday Night….The good news is that the storm will race away Saturday morning with some developing sunshine. Despite a brief passing shower, most of Satuday looks rainfree after 8am. Sunday looks even better.  Stay tuned for updates. The exact track of the storm will determine rainfall amounts. Allow extra travel time…especially the Friday evening commute.   Tony Petrarca, updated 12:21am Friday

wind gusts

 

 

 


FLOOD WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY A.M.

June 6th, 2013 at 4:15 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good afternoon from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

Remanants from Tropical storm Andrea will approach Friday Afternoon/Night, then moving away later Saturday morning. High winds will not be a factor, however some gale force gusts along the south shore (especially lower Cape and Islands) up to 35-45 mph. Wide spread heavy rain likely…the  exact track of storm will determine final rainfall amounts. At this point a 2-4″ rain fall id forecasted and the reason why a Flood Watch has been issued. Stay tuned for updates on Eyewitness News Live at 10pm and 11pm

OVERVIEW:

RAINFALL: 2-4″  Potential flooding of some low lying streets, small streams. Big rivers need to be monitired, but at this point, the Pawtuxet and Blackstone will rise, but stay below flood stage.

WIND POTENTIAL : Not as big  factor, however late Friday night, winds will gust up to 40 mph along the south shore

COASTAL FLOODING:  Not a big factor. Slight chance of minor coastal flooding on south shore.

Below is computer model guidance on the location and amounts of rain…The heaviest from Fri. Afternoon thru late Fri. Night

Click Here For Our Interactive Hurricane Tracking Site

Andrea_rainfall

 

 


First Storm Of Hurricane Season Forms, Will Bring Rain Here

June 5th, 2013 at 6:46 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Hurricane season off to a fast start as a weak tropical storm Andrea has formed in the Gulf Of Mexico. While the storm is not expected to be a big player as far as winds…it will be a big rain producer. Remnants from the storm will move into our area as early as Friday bring periods of heavy rain thru early Saturday morning. Potential for 2-4″ of rain from Friday into early Saturday morning. Will need to monitor for the possiblity of minor urban and small river flooding…Meanwhile you can check out our Hurricane Tracker Site

The following is from the National Hurricane Center:  The immediate threat is for the Gulf and Florida

…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST…

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT…2200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 310 MI…500 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 320 MI…510 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 600 PM EDT…2200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURDAY AND THAT GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING…AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…
220 KM…MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
GULF COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON…MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS.  THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA…2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS
ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN
VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.  TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

 

 

 

Trp Storm

 


Slight Risk Of Severe Storms This Evening

May 29th, 2013 at 5:44 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

image

Good Morning from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…. ingredients may come together by late afternoon or early evening for thunderstorms… some which will be locally severe. The risk of damaging winds and hail for the areas shaded in yellow. Time frame is 6pm to 10pm Today. Stay tuned for updates via wpri.com and twitter.


The Bermuda High

May 28th, 2013 at 11:14 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

Are you ready for some heat and humidty. One weather feature  we monitor during the summer is high pressure that is sprawled across the Atlantic ocean. This semi-permanent weather  system will sometimes set up  over Bermuda. The circulation around  high pressure is clock wise. In this position  (over Bermuda), the high pressure cell circulates very warm humid air from the Gulf Of Mexico and the Bahamas and draws it north  into New England…This will be the  set up starting this Thursday and extending into this weekend.  It should be noted that the position and strength of this high pressure system determines future movement of Atlantic hurricanes along the east coast. Hurricane season starts June 1st, but the peak season is usually during August and September…

Bermuda High


Memorial Day Weekend Snow !!??

May 24th, 2013 at 9:30 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca

Hmmm….I thought that headline would get your attention, but yes, it will happen. HOWEVER, I am refering to the the high mountains of northern New England.  The map below is one of our high resolution computer models called the RPM.  It  shows small accumulations in the Green and White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire, as well as far Northern Maine. It would not surprise me to see some wet snow mixing with cold rain Saturday Night in the Berkshires of western Masssachusetts.  For most of us its a cold rain Saturday.

RPM Snowfall Accumulation Forecast Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning…

rpm snowfall