While the whole day won’t be a “washout”, we will need to watch again later this afternoon and especially this evening for the potential for strong and severe thunderstorms.  The highest risk will be over western New England, but a few storms containing torrential rain and strong winds will be possible around here, too, especially if we get some breaks of sun.

Thunderstorm outlook Thursday, May 23

Tornado Outlook Thursday, May 23

Parts of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma also have the potential for more severe thunderstorms with a moderate risk of those storms producing tornadoes.

Our best shot at getting widespread rain/thunder will come after 7pm this evening and continuing through the night.

From the Severe Storms Prediction Center: Convective Outlook for Wednesday

       The primary threats with any potential storms will be from damaging straight line wind gusts and hail as well as torrential downpours and frequent lightning.  With that said, the SPC also released their outlook for a tornado threat  for today

From the Severe Storms Prediction Center: Tornado Outlook for Wednesday

.

   While the chances are low, there is the slight chance for an isolated tornado in Connecticut and Massachusetts up to the Rhode Island border.  Obviously during the afternoon and evening today, we need to be alert!

-T.J. Del Santo

Again, Watch means the POTENTIAL for Severe weather in these areas.

Severe thunderstorms can bring torrential rain, large hail, frequent lightning and destructive winds.  These storms can still move into Southeastern New England. 

As of 2pm, storms were developing in parts of New York State.  The storms in New Hampshire and central Massachusetts have moved offshore.

-T.J. Del Santo

Conditions are becoming favorable for thunderstorms now in New York State to move eastward and into Southern New England.  The strongest of these storms will likely be in Western New England, but some strong to severe storms are possible in our region after 4pm.   If you’re interested, here is the discussion from the SPC.

We will continue to monitor these storms closely.  Again, if these storms do move into our region, the biggest threats are:

• Torrential Rain
• Frequent Lightning
• Large Hail
• Potentially Damaging Wind Gusts

-T.J. Del Santo

Here’s an eyewitness account: “I was going to go in anyway, ’cause I could see that swirl in the air up there.”

Tree ontop of car immediately following a tornado which ripped through Cranston and Providence, RI in 1986.

Another eyewitness describes what he saw: “We came around the corner and just looked up… next thing we know, the wind flipped it (the truck) right over.”

A truck flipped by the 1986 Cranston/Providence tornado.

 A house on Hillwood Street in Cranston was literally blown off its foundation.  From the outside of the house, you could see down into the basement.  Donna Santos, who lived in the house, spoke to a WPRI-TV reporter back in 1986:

“I thought I was going to die…that’s all I thought..I have a little 3 year old daughter.

House on Hillwood Street in Cranston blown off of its foundation during the 1986 tornado.

That house was torn down…another house sits on the land today.

Some of the worst damage occurred on Stewart Street at the site of the Fulford Manufacturing Building in Providence.   This is behind what is now Crossroads Rhode Island (the old YMCA building).   Eyewitnesses say the twister hit the building and ripped off the top off the century-old brick structure.  Machinery on the inside was exposed and bricks were scattered everywhere on the outside.  Today, there is a parking lot where the building once stood.  The company relocated to East Providence.

Fulford Manufacturing Building after the 1986 tornado hit it.

The tornado continued northward toward Orms Street where it dissipated.   It was considered an F-2 on the Fujita Tornado Scale with winds between 113 and 157mph.

Approximate path of the 1986 Cranston/Providence Tornado

The next day, twisters struck again…this time in Northern Rhode Island.  In Burrillville and North Smithfield, trees and debris were scattered everywhere.  This tornado was an F-1 with winds up to 112mph.

An Eyewitness described it: “This was short-lived.  Gone as soon as you were able to recognize what was going on.”

Tornadoes are rare in Rhode Island and are usually weak.  On that day in 1986, however, many people saw first-hand the destructive nature of these storms.

We expect more thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon… likely further south and west.  Northern Rhode Island could possibly see some thunderstorms later this afternoon and early evening. 

The primary threats with these storms would be

• heavy rain
• frequent lightning
• hail
• potentially damaging wind gusts 

Of course, with the images of the Oklahoma and Texas tornadoes fresh in everyone’s minds, you may wonder about the threat of a twister.  The threat of a tornado with these storms is considered to be very low.  We will watch these storms closely and keep you updated through the afternoon.

-T.J. Del Santo

In fact, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK has parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas under a “Moderate Risk” for severe storms.

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday, May 21

Here’s the forecast for potential tornadoes:

Tornado Probability

The main threat with any storms that develop in this area will be very large hail and strong tornadoes.  There’s also a lower risk for isolated severe thunderstorms in the central Great Lakes and into far western New England.

Locally, a front will be over southern New England today and will act as a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late afternoon and evening.  The greatest risk of seeing any storms would be in northern RI and northern Bristol County, MA.  Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning are all possible.  If you are headed to the ball field today, keep an eye to the sky for changing weather conditions.

RPM Model Valid at 7pm

For most of RI, the rainfall totals from yesterday were pretty measly. 

And today will be more of the same.  Low pressure will creep over New England as it continues to weaken, bringing occasional showers, quick downpours and an isolated thunderstorm.  There will be long stretches of dry weather in between the showers and even some hazy, humid sun at times.  Rainfall amounts will generally be under 1/4″.

Showers end this evening and we’ll have a dry day tomorrow.  In fact, it will be one of the warmest days so far this spring, with some inland spots nearing 80!

US Drought Monitor as of Apr 30

And it’s no wonder… since the start of meteorological spring on March 1st we have an almost 5.5″ rainfall deficit.  It’s less severe in eastern MA due to a coastal storm a few weeks ago that brought heavy rain to that area, while in RI we only saw a few light showers.

It looks like a combination of low pressure tomorrow and Thursday, with several fronts over the weekend will help put a dent in that deficit.  We’ll see scattered showers, with some embedded heavier downpours starting by afternoon on Wednesday… and we’ll keep at least a chance of showers in the forecast into Sunday.  Here’s a forecast for how much rainfall we could see through the next 7 days…. with about an 1″-1.25″ expected.

Rainfall Totals Next 7 Days

Omega Block

Notice the resemblance to the greek letter omega:

Greek Letter Omega

“Blocking” means that there’s a stagnation in the weather pattern where there’s  the same type of weather for days or even weeks.  For New England, which is under the omega block, it means dry weather and light wind for an extended period of time while rain and clouds are common on either side of the omega block. This kind of pattern makes forecasting easier since you can pinpoint areas that will be dominated by dry or rainy weather for several days.

So when will the pattern break?  Some of our computer models see some signs of change by late next week… though even then, it doesn’t look like a complete break down of the ridging in New England.  At this point, we’re looking at likely warmer than average and drier than average conditions in our area through possibly May 10.

In terms of rainfall, we’re looking at mostly light amounts across RI–generally under 1/4″.  However, the amounts will be more impressive over southeastern MA… possibly nearing 1/2″ in New Bedford and as much as 1″ to 2″ across parts of the Cape and Islands.  The culprit is an area of low pressure that will track south and east of Nantucket.

Accum rain by 8am Wednesday

The storm departs by early tomorrow morning (before 9am) and then the good stuff begins!  We have a huge turnaround tomorrow… we should break into sunshine through the morning, and that–combined with a shift in the wind to the southwest–will push our temperatures up to near 70 inland and 60s at the coast.

RPM Model Forecast Highs for Wednesday

A rather unimpressive cold front will sweep through Wednesday night with a passing shower followed by a large area of high pressure that will sit over New England and keep us storm-free from Thursday into the weekend.  There are even signs that high could continue to control the weather into early next week.  Temperatures under the high will be seasonable–a comfortable low to mid 60s.

Cold front moved through early this morning, bringing clouds and a few scattered showers, but not a lot of cold air, especially for today.

In fact, temperatures this morning were about 20° warmer than yesterday at dawn… add sunshine for most of the day, and you’re left with afternoon temperatures climbing well into the 60s–even at the coast.  The combination of sunshine, mild air and lighter winds makes today my PICK OF THE WEEK!

After a comfortable evening temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by dawn.  Thursday still looks good for outdoor plans with a sunny start and then increasing afternoon and evening clouds.  It will be a little cooler with highs near 61.  A warm front will lift through Thursday night, unleashing humid and mild air for Friday.  Gusty winds ahead of a cold front will lead to rough waters on the Bay and a chillier feel.  While there may be a spotty shower during the day on Friday, a soaking rain will hold off until Friday night.  Around a 1/4-3/4″ of rain expected with this strong cold front, even perhaps a rumble of thunder.

24hr Accum rain by Saturday PM

Our computer models are still hinting at the rain extending into Saturday morning with clearing skies in the afternoon.  Cooler air will settle in for early next week behind the front.

This all started on Thursday when a Coronal Mass Ejection was seen leaving the Sun.

Courtesy NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory: Coronal Mass Ejection Leaving the Sun early Thursday morning.

This happens a lot, but this CME was directed toward Earth and reached us earlier this evening.  When these particles hit our communication satellites, outages can occur. Sometimes, power distribution to our houses can be interrupted, but that is rare.

Courtesy NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory: CME from the Sun.

Again, while the problems these solar ejections can cause are many, the beauty can be unreal!  Streams of color can dance through the night sky.  While usually green, reds and blues have been seen.  The problem here in Southern New England tonight is the clouds. 

Courtesy U.S. Airforce: The Aurora Borealis, or Northern Lights, shines above Bear Lake in Alaska

While it can be difficult to see the Aurora anyway because of our position on the Earth (further North is better), we can still see them if all the conditions are right.  This particular flare of the sun is considered to be a mid-level M-class flare.  It’s 10 times weaker than an X-class flare, but also the strongest so far in 2013.   Even if we can’t see the Aurora tonight, we will have many more chances.  The sun is coming close to its Solar Maximum.  That is the part of the sun’s 11-year cycle when it is the most active.  Numerous sun-spots have cited on the sun, an indication of its activity.  Experts say that the peak to this solar cycle is later this year.

You can follow all of my astronomy and weather updates on Twitter: @tjdelsanto

-T.J. Del Santo

We’re still looking at around 1-1.5″ of rainfall by midnight.  Here’s the latest RPM model run for accumulated rainfall in New England. 

In addition, east-northeast winds will gust up to 35mph at times,  and there could be some localized street flooding… though our rivers and streams should not flood.

Clouds linger through much of the night and early Saturday morning before giving way to sunshine.  The April sun should do the trick warming us up in the afternoon with highs back into the upper 50s.  Sunday will feature lots of sunshine with temperatures just a bit cooler than Saturday.

I’m seeing signs of another stretch of mild weather for the start of school vacation week with highs near 60 Monday and in the mid-60s for Tuesday and Wednesday.  We’ll have to keep an eye on the eventual position of a cold front for the middle of next week… if it stays north of our area then our temperatures will stay mild, if it slips south then we’ll see the cooler temperatures return.

Courtesy: NASA. Satellite picture of Hurricane Sandy in 2013.

Colorado State University has issued their forecast for the 2013 Hurricane Season.  Phillip J. Klotzbach and William Gray have been forecasting hurricane activity in the Atlantic for decades.  They base their forecasts on a number of factors including world-wide weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures.  Hurricane season begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th.

Here is their forecast for the Atlantic Basin in 2013 and the average from 1981-2010. 

• 18 Named Storms, average is 12
• 9 Hurricanes, average is 6.5
• 4 Major Hurricanes, average is 2

The following is from their report which you can read here.

“We anticipate that the 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have enhanced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.”

Large waves battering the Narragansett coastline during Hurricane Sandy.

We have been directly impacted by tropical systems the past two seasons–Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012.  We are in a period of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and while it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict whether we can get hit for a 3rd year in a row, it is best to be prepared.

For more information on how to get storm ready, you can visit our Storm Ready page on wpri.com.  There, you can familiarize yourself with evacuation routes, download preparation lists and learn how to prepare your property for hurricanes.

The Colorado State team’s next hurricane forecast will be released on June 3.  -T.J. Del Santo

Our last 70° or higher day was on

OCTOBER 20 when we hit a high of 74°!

Today, we will likely only hit highs in the 60s… but it is going to be a gorgeous day.  Lots of sun, lighter winds and inland temperatures in the mid 60s should make for a great day for outdoor activities.  It will be cooler at the coast with an afternoon sea breeze keeping highs near 58-60.

A front will remain across the northeast next few days… and while we’ll remain on the mild side of the front (hence Tuesday and Wednesdays highs in the 70s), it will be closer enough to give us a chance for an occasional shower.

Surface Map for 8pm Today

It looks like we’ll see one of those rounds of showers early Tuesday morning (between 2am and 8am) and yet another chance on Wednesday and Thursday–dry stretches and partial sun can be expected in between the shower threat.  As the front pushes south, cooler temperatures will move in for the end of the work week.

It should be a very pretty early spring day… with high pressure building to our south and a wind shift, we’re looking at dry and mainly sunny skies.

Surface Map 4/4

As Tony mentioned in his blog last night, we are tracking an area of low pressure that will track well south and east of our area tomorrow.  It still looks like Rhode Island and southeastern MA will be on the northern edge of the rain, with showers expected from about 8am Friday morning through about 3pm Friday afternoon.  The storm makes a quick exit… so we may even end the day with some sunshine.  It looks mild even with the clouds and showers around, highs in the mid to upper 50s.

The weather looks quiet and dry for the weekend with sunshine Saturday and more of a sun/cloud mix on Sunday.

Early next week, there will be a temperature battle going on over New England, with a cold front nearby that will wobble near or over central New England for a few days.  That front is going to be the dividing line between warmer than normal temperatures to the south  and cooler than normal temperatures to the north–60s and 70s vs 40s and 50s.  Our guidance this morning is at odds… with some showing our temperatures tempered by the front (ECMWF) and other GFS showing the front staying north and our temperatures soaring!  Right now, I’m leaning more towards the reliable ECMWF, and keeping our temperatures closer to 55-62 with hazy sun/clouds and a few showers around.  Stay tuned!

If you have outdoor plans late day, you are going to want to watch for a changeable sky.  We’re timing the passage of a strong cold front for late afternoon and early evening that has the potential to bring some isolated stormy weather into our area.  Right now it looks like the best window of opportunity for showers, isolated thunder and isolated strong winds will be between 4-8pm in RI and exiting off of the Cape by 11pm.  Here’s a look at the 12z model run of the RPM for 6pm today.  It shows the scattered nature of the showers (not everyone sees one) and a few isolated heavier downpours/wind gusts/rumbles of thunder.  Winds could briefly gust to 40-50mph in any of these stronger cells.

RPM Valid 6pm Mon

Behind the cold front, temperatures will tumble on a gusty northwest wind.  Temperatures should be back into the 40s before sunset and fall all the way into the upper 20s by dawn tomorrow.

We’re back to sweater weather tomorrow and on Wednesday with temperatures only climbing into the low to mid 40s.  We should be back to more seasonable temperatures by Thursday afternoon.

We’ll start the day with lots of sunshine and a sunrise temperature in the mid to upper 30′s.  Sunrise is at 6:26am. 

Through the morning, the sun will be shining brightly and the temps will be rebounding quickly…from the 30′s, through the 40′s and into the 50′s by noon.  Sunrise services will be chilly and morning Egg Hunts will be cool.

Temperature trend through Easter Sunday for Providence, RI.

The afternoon will feature a fading sun.  Clouds will be thickening through the afternoon, but we should stay dry.  The computer model projections for the onset of the precipitation are between 7 and 9pm.  It is possible that a stray shower may arrive before then, but expect generally dry weather through Easter.

RPM computer model projection of clouds and precipitation for Easter Sunday.

Happy Easter! -TJ Del Santo

Our computer models are continuing to show a few showers popping up through the afternoon… they will be hit-or-miss, brief and generally light… with some sun peeking through at times.  This is the RPM Model showing those instability showers and how the radar may look around 3pm today.

RPM Model

We’ll get back on track with temperatures in the 50s for Friday. The day should begin with sunshine before clouds fill in through the afternoon.  There’s a small chance of a sprinkle in the afternoon, but most of us stay dry.

Easter bunny will be dropping off some pretty “egg-cellent” weather for the weekend.  An area of high pressure will build overhead on Saturday and should deliver plenty of sunshine Saturday and into  Sunday afternoon.  We’re still closely watching the timing of a cold front for Sunday night.  Our computer models have been speeding up the arrival of the front a little bit, with the rain showers possible 3-6hrs earlier.

What does that mean for your weekend plans?  Not much until after 5pm on Sunday, when showers will begin to threaten our area.  Here’s a look at this morning’s 06z GFS model valid at 8pm with the leading edge of showers  pushing into southeastern New England.

06z GFS Valid 8pm Sunday

Sunday Afternoon

The latest computer guidance on Monday’s storm continues to point at a southerly track–one that supports the bulk of an ocean storm staying off-shore.  It’s a storm that will deliver quite a bit of rain and snow to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic… but it looks like that heavy precipitation will stay over the ocean.  That said, the pleasant weather from Sunday will be replaced by cloudy skies, cool temperatures and some light rain/snow showers for Monday afternoon and night.

Its still possible for some small accumulations on Monday evening/night…. maybe a coating to an 1-2″ on grassy surfaces and car tops.  Best chance would be near the coast and into SE MA.  Based on the current forecast, much heavier precipitation will be just south… so we’ll have to watch for any jog in the track closer to the coast, which could bring heavier precip (more snow) into our area.

RPM Model Valid Monday 8pm

Here’s a look at some of the snowfall totals we received from last night’s storm.  It was highly localized heavier bands of snow, so even from one part of a town or city to the other there were differences in the accumulations.

So when will it finally start to feel like Spring?  We’re hopeful it will be in early April.  Our computer models showing more cold, unsettled weather through Easter Sunday,  but check out this update from the Climate Prediction Center about how the month of April is setting up.  It calls for warmer than average temperatures in New England.  Yippee!!

April Temperature Probability

We’ve seen less than half of the amount of Worcester’s snow at TF Green Airport where RI’s official weather records are kept. Our total for the season is 46.3″, which doesn’t even place in the top 10 snowiest winters.  However; it’s still a stark contrast to last year’s less than 18″ of snow and 76° High on March 21.

I haven’t made any signifant changes to the forecast that Tony had last night… other than to adjust the higher snow band westward slightly to include parts of southern RI.  It still looks like a narrow band of 2-3″ snow fall totals will occur somewhere in our area with an isolated 4-5″ total possible…. there will be little to no accumulation on either side of that band.  We’ll be keeping a close eye on the radar this evening and tonight, to see where exactly the bursts of snow are and may have to make some additional adjustments to the forecast.

By Friday Morning

While most of the snow will melt as it hits the pavement before sunset this evening, the arrival of heavier bursts of snow may coincide with the evening commute and slow the trip home from work.  In addition, tomorrow morning’s commute could feature some slick spots as showers taper off before 8am for most and skies turn partly sunny.

This Evening’s Commute

1. 1995-96:         106.1″
2. 1947-1948:      75.6″
3. 2004-2005:     72.2″
4. 1906-1907:      71.4″
5. 1977-1978:     70.2″
6. 1993-1994:      63.5″
7. 1960-1961:      62.7″
8. 1966-1967:      58.1″
9. 1944-1945:      56.7″
10. 1989-1990:      56.2″

2″ of snow fell in East Providence between March 18th and March 19th.

A short time ago, TF Green Airport reported 2.6″ of snow with this storm, bringing the total up to 46.3″ of snow on the season.  That’s about 10″ short of cracking the Top 10 Snowiest Seasons in Providence.   As I’ve mentioned in a previous blog post today, Winter’s Staying Put!   We will likely have at least 2 or 3 more chances of snow this year….picking up another 10″ is not impossible!

-T.J. Del Santo

MASSACHUSETTS

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   TAUNTON                3.0   700 AM  3/19  NWS OFFICE
   REHOBOTH               2.0   708 AM  3/19  COCORAHS
   SWANSEA                2.0   707 AM  3/19  TRAINED SPOTTER
   TAUNTON 2NW            2.0   458 AM  3/19  NWS EMPLOYEE
   NEW BEDFORD            1.5   403 AM  3/19  HAM RADIO

-T.J. Del Santo

We have the potential for more snow on Thursday/Friday.  Below is the latest European computer model.  The American GFS computer model is similar to this solution with a trof of low pressure hanging over Southern New England.   As far as how much, it’s possible another few inches are possible in Providence (maybe higher amounts over Southeaster Massachusetts). 

European Computer Model for Thursday night/Friday Morning indicating the possibility of more snow

So where is the spring-like weather?  It’s definitely not here and there is no indication it will be arriving in the next 2 weeks.  The biggest reason why is something called the NAO or the North Atlantic Oscillation.  The NAO is a whether phenomenon in the North Atlantic which can fluctuate in time.  Forecasts are usually only reliable for about 2-3 weeks ahead of time.  Below is the forecast of the NAO for the next 2 weeks….notice how the redline stays negative.  Negative NAO for us means cold.  While we may get some brief reprieves from the cold during hte next few weeks, don’t expect any prolonged stretches of beautiful spring weather soon.

Graph of the observed (black line) and forecasted (red lines) of the North Atlantic Oscillation

So, Easter will likely be chilly and even into April, we are likely to see some cooler than normal temps.  Notice the trend of the red line, however.  It will start headed toward a positive NAO in early April.  Keep your fingers crossed!

-T.J. Del Santo

Snow totals so far from National Weather Service and WPRI weather spotters

RHODE ISLAND

…KENT COUNTY…
    WEST WARWICK       4.0
    WEST WARWICK       3.0  
    COVENTRY                  3.0  

…PROVIDENCE COUNTY…
    HOPE                             3.0
    N. SMITHFIELD        2.5
   GREENVILLE              2.2  
   E. PROVIDENCE        2.0  

…WASHINGTON COUNTY…
   S. KINGSTOWN        3.0  

MASSACHUSETTS

…BRISTOL COUNTY…
   NEW BEDFORD         1.5   
   TAUNTON                  1.5   

-T.J. Del Santo

March 2012

I have been getting lots of questions over the last few weeks about WHEN we are going to start to warm up.  Unfortunately, we aren’t seeing a lot of change in the weather pattern through the end of the month.  A large trough in the jet stream will continue to allow cooler than normal temperatures to flow into the eastern US, and we’ll have to keep an eye out for more late season wintry weather.

Temperature Probability for March 25-31