For as many years as I’ve been studying weather, severe hail has been considered to have a diameter of 3/4 inches. 

1 to 1.5 inch Hail....courtesy National Weather Service and NOAA

When we talk  about severe thunderstorms we look at wind gusts and hail size.  The criteria  has been wind gusts to 58mph and 3/4 inch hail or larger.  

Warnings are issued frequently while t’storms are in the area.  People became desensitized to the warnings and probably ignored them, which is unfortunate.  The new Severe Thunderstorm Warning criteria for hail is now one inch in diameter, or about the size of a quarter.  After being used in the central United States last year, this criteria is now used nationwide, including here in Southern New England.   The National Weather Service in Taunton issues Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for our area.

How will this impact you?  (more…)

I take great pride that after all these years, two kids and countless adventures, I only have a few gray hairs. But, that will probably change soon. My oldest daughter turns 15 this weekend. 15…I can remember when she looked forward to me reading to her, telling her stories, playing board games, and having fun outside. Now she’s turning 15, hanging out with friends and playing high school basketball. She’s a wonderful kid, great student and daughter. My wife and I are blessed to have two wonderful children.  But, the oldest is turning 15. One year away from driving. I was nervous when she started riding a bike..I can just imagine when she gets behind the wheel of a car! Plus, boys calling..they’ll have to talk to me first! Her dreams of being a school teacher and fashion designer have faded and she’s not sure about “what she wants to be when she grows up.”
One thing is certain…she’s turning 15 this weekend….and  I can already see the gray settling in.

With the help of his “Nunny”, my little man started walking around New Year’s day.  It’s quite a sight…. Charlie precariously balancing on 2 wobbly legs as he toddles across the room.  He is so proud of himself, laughing, screeching and flailing his arms as he goes.  While I am excited that he has hit this latest milestone, I also fear the bumps, bruises and endless chasing after him that lie ahead.  As my mom has said… this boy is going to run, not walk.

Meanwhile, we are beginning preparations for his 1st birthday!  I keep thinking about last year at this time.  I was huge (covering up most of the weather map!) and sooo ready to get him out of my belly. Haha!  The minutes dragged on and on as I anxiously awaited Charlie’s arrival.  Now I am trying to figure out how to slow time.  How has a year already passed?

The greatest gift I could ever receive on Christmas is the one I was given just over 11 months ago, with my healthy baby boy.  While he’s not aware of Santa, the hustle and bustle and the tempting Toys R Us catalog… I can already feel a new wave of excitement in the holiday season for our family.  I can only imagine the fun we’ll be having in the coming years.  

The holidays are also filled with some sadness, too, as it’s the first Christmas without my beloved father, who died of brain cancer earlier this year.  When he was diagnosed on Valentine’s Day ‘08, my husband and I immediately decided we wanted to have a baby.  What better gift to give my father than the grandchild he’d been asking for.  And while my dad did survive just long enough to hold his namesake, I will always be sad he never witnessed all of the joyous milestones we’ve celebrated in the last year. 

The amazing thing is that as much as I anticipated Charlie being a gift to my dad… he’s been the greatest gift to those of us left behind… especially my mom.  I am grateful that we’ll be spending this Christmas chasing after our busy little boy, laughing at his endless babbling, and smiling and waving back at his happy self instead of focusing on the sadness we’ll all be feeling. 

So, Santa, thank you for the Charlie under my tree.

As of 10am the intensity of the snow has eased up a bit, though still moderate to heavy at times…the trend will be for lighter snow by early afternoon. Totals in most areas have come in around 15 to 18 inches with some isolated amounts of 20 inches. Blowing and drifting snow will continue as winds gust over 30 mph. Intense storm south of Nantucket will continue to pull away with drier air late this afternoon and evening. Any “additional” accumulations next few hours will range around 1-2″  more on top of what has fallen already

Here are some storm links:

Weather Spotter Storm Totals:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

Wind Damage Reports

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR

Tony Petrarca

Updated 1:53 am

Wow..what a drive into work…I just arrived here at the station..about a 15 mile ride and it was very
intense ride. I have lived here all my life and been forecasting here for almost 25 years and its not often you see snow coming down at 1-3inches per hour along with winds of 40-50 mph. Visibility was poor with lots of blowing and drifting…..very little traffic on the highway with speeds not much higher than 35-40 mph. Fortunately I borrowed a 4 wheel drive truck.

I am looking at some data right now and I will be back to check in with you later…at this point I see no need to change our forecast from yesterday morning…everything is going as expected. Don’t forget we have live team coverage starting at 6am to 9am with periodic updates thru out the day.

Take Care

Tony Petrarca

Just finished a conference call with the weather team…everything still coming into play for a major nor’easter with heavy snow and strong winds starting this evening and lasting into Sunday morning…we are going to raise our original forecast 0f 8 to 15″   to  12 to 18 inches state wide. We feel confident of at least 12 inches…but higher amounts possible due to the track and intensity of the storm along with colder air.. We are still concened about power outages in some areas.   Blizzard Warning in effect..the combination of heavy snow, strong winds and reduced visibility are the reasons for the warning.

Tony Petrarca…updated 11:25am

At this early morning hour..12:38am Saturday. Just finished reviewing most of the new data. Still looks
like all the ingredients coming together for a major nor’easter to swipe our area with heavy snow and strong winds.

The storm will intensify rapidly as it passes offshore Saturday night into Sunday morning. Even at this late stage in the game a slight deviation in the storm track will change the snow amounts (higher or lower). However we feel the track will be one that favors a lot of snow and wind. The first flakes of snow starting very light by around sunset Saturday along the coast..then spreading north during the overnight. The height of the storm will be from 12am to 9am Sunday. Snowfall rates may reach 1-2 “ per hour at times along with winds gusting to 50 mph along the shoreline. This may lead to isolated power outages in some
spots. The combination of strong winds and reduced visibilities have lead the National Weather Service to issue a Blizzard Watch for the coast and offshore islands and I completely agree with them on that.

Accumulations statewide will average 8 to 12” by noon Sunday with isolated amounts if 12-15” . Should the storm track further out to sea amounts would be reduced…check back with us thru out the day Saturday. Myself and Pete Mangione will be on the air, live starting 6am Sunday Morning. Be sure to check with TJ Saturday Night for updates too.

Tony Petrarca

Apparently my son is part woodchuck. 

He has completely knawed the front and back rails of his crib and has begun working on the back rungs. 

I was warned by friends that this would happen… they encouraged me to put the teething rail covers on early, warning me that one day I’d go to get him from his nap and find Charlie had taken to the wood like he was munching on corn on the cob.  Sure, enough, a few months ago the outside rail had teeth marks (but only on the inside)… I put the covers on and thought all was good…. at least they weren’t that noticeable.  That was until 2 days ago.  

Now, with 4 teeth and more on the way, the crib is toast.  I’m very glad I listened to some of my mommy friends and didn’t spend a ton of money on it.    I can’t help but think about the chemicals he’s ingesting with the finish he’s taken off the crib.  All I can do is laugh about it, though.  The damage is already done….

A Spring-like storm arrives during the pre-dawn hour of Thursday bringing heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms, warm temperatures, coastal flooding and potentially damaging wind gusts…. Fortunately this will be a short duration storm with the core of the wind and rain lasting around 4 to 6 hours.

High Tide Thursday morning will be higher than normal due to the full moon…this is called the “Astro Tide”…..Full moon tides, even without a storm, tend to be higher than normal. Strong southerly winds will drag extra sea water towards the south coast and up Narragansett and Buzzards Bay. Water levels will run 1 to 3 feet above high tide. This will create minor to moderate flooding early Thursday morning between 7 and 9am

Below is a list of Tide information…by adding the “Astro Tide” due to the full moon, with the forecasted “Storm Surge” due to the strong southerly winds, you then get the forecasted “Total Tide Level”

ALL TIDE HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.
TIME OF HIGH TOTAL TIDES ARE APPROXIMATE TO THE NEAREST HOUR.

WESTPORT

TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
——- ———- ——- ——- ——- ———-
3.4 02/08 PM 3.5 -0.1 2-3 NONE
6.5 03/07 AM 4.5 2.0 8-10 MODERATE
2.3 03/08 PM 3.5 -1.2 7-8 NONE
3.7 04/09 AM 4.3 -0.6 4-5 NONE
3.2 04/09 PM 3.6 -0.4 3 NONE
3.9 05/10 AM 4.2 -0.3 2 NONE

POINT JUDITH

TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
——- ———- ——- ——- ——- ———-
3.0 02/08 PM 3.1 -0.1 2-3 NONE
5.4 03/07 AM 3.6 1.8 8-12 MODERATE
1.8 03/08 PM 3.1 -1.3 7-8 NONE
3.3 04/09 AM 3.9 -0.6 4 NONE
2.7 04/09 PM 3.2 -0.5 3 NONE
3.5 05/10 AM 3.8 -0.3 2 NONE

WESTERLY

TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
——- ———- ——- ——- ——- ———-
2.5 02/08 PM 2.6 -0.1 2 NONE
4.3 03/07 AM 2.6 1.7 6-8 MINOR
0.2 03/06 PM 1.5 -1.3 4-5 NONE
2.6 04/09 AM 3.3 -0.7 2-3 NONE
2.2 04/10 PM 2.7 -0.5 2 NONE
2.9 05/10 AM 3.2 -0.3 1 NONE

NARRAGANSETT BAY – CONIMICUT POINT

TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
——- ———- ——- ——- ——- ———-
4.3 02/08 PM 4.4 0.0 1 NONE
8.1 03/08 AM 5.6 2.5 1-2 MODERATE
3.3 03/09 PM 4.4 -1.1 1 NONE
4.7 04/09 AM 5.3 -0.6 1 NONE
4.0 04/10 PM 4.4 -0.4 1 NONE
4.7 05/10 AM 5.1 -0.4 1 NONE

NARRAGANSETT BAY – FOX POINT

TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
——- ———- ——- ——- ——- ———-
4.5 02/08 PM 4.6 0.0 1 NONE
8.2 03/08 AM 5.7 2.5 1 MODERATE
3.5 03/09 PM 4.6 -1.1 1 NONE
4.8 04/09 AM 5.5 -0.7 1 NONE
4.2 04/10 PM 4.6 -0.4 1 NONE
4.8 05/10 AM 5.3 -0.5 1 NONE

NEWPORT HARBOR

TOTAL ASTRO
TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD
/FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY
——- ———- ——- ——- ——- ———-
3.2 02/08 PM 3.3 -0.1 1 NONE
6.7 03/08 AM 4.7 2.0 2-5 MODERATE
2.0 03/09 PM 3.3 -1.3 2-4 NONE
3.6 04/09 AM 4.2 -0.6 1-2 NONE
2.9 04/09 PM 3.3 -0.4 1-2 NONE
3.8 05/10 AM 4.1 -0.3 1-2 NONE

Tony Petrarca
12-02-09 9:32pm