Good Monday morning,

New data continues to flow into the Pinpoint Weather Center this morning, giving us growing confidence in a period of wintry weather from late this evening through tomorrow morning before changing to plain rain.

In fact, the National Weather Service this morning upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for Northern RI, where our highest snowfall accumulations are expected—as much as 4-6″ of snow and sleet.  In addition, the Providence Metro area through Kent and South Counties, along with northern Bristol County, MA are now under a Winter Weather Advisory.  The Alerts are for 9pm this evening through 11am Tuesday.

We are most concerned about messy travel conditions for tomorrow morning’s commute.

TIMING:  Snow arrives between 8pm and 12am.

          Changing to Rain from south to north between 6am and 11am Tuesday

         Periods of Rain in the Afternoon will taper off most areas by 8pm

ACCUMULATIONS:  NW RI–4-6″

                                Central  RI to Northern Bristol Cty MA–2-4″

                                Coastal RI/MA–Coating to 2″

RAINFALL:  Additional 0.5″ to 1″ of  rain after the changeover

WINDS:  East winds 10-20mph with gusts to 35mph

COASTAL FLOODING:  Not an issue because tides will not be astronomically high.  We catch a break in this regard

RIVER FLOODING:  We’ll watch local rivers and streams, however, right now rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy enough to cause flooding of our major rivers–Pawtuxet, Blackstone, Pawcatuck.

Yesterday’s temperatures in the 50s meant a nice spring preview—and lots of outdoor time for the kids—but unfortunately, for the next 7 days it looks like the warmer air is history.  Colder air is continuing to drain in today on a stiff west-northwest wind and we’ve even seen snow showers which brought a quick dusting of snow in SW RI. Those snow showers are winding down this morning and we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds today.  But even with a strengthening March sun, we’ll only see temperatures climb into the upper 30s.  You’ll need to dress for the 20s with the winds.

Tonight looks to be the coldest night of the week, with mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the ‘teens to lower 20s.  Brrr!

We’re continuing to track a weak clipper-type system for Saturday.  The trend has been to push this low pressure system further south over the ocean.  In fact, several of the overnight computer models (00z ECMWF and 00z GFS) keep our skies dry and partly sunny for Saturday.  Bottom line–even if this disturbance comes close enough to bring showers they will be more of a nuisance than anything significant.  Here’s a view of the 06z GFS keeping the precipitation south of our area on Saturday–valid at 2pm. 

It still looks dry and chilly for St Patrick’s Day festivities on Sunday.

Rain has been slowly working its way across Western Massachusetts, Central Connecticut and New York City through the morning.  Through the morning, the rain will work its way eastward and the showers will become widespread this afternoon and evening.  In fact, some of the computer information I’ve been looking at indicates some heavy rain is possible later today. 

Localized street flooding is possible this evening.  The National Weather Service has posted a Flood Watch for Bristol, Norfolk County and Worcester Counties in Massachusetts.  Snowmelt and rainfall could put local streams and rivers over their banks.  Some poor drainage flooding is possible, too.

The chance of rain today will increase through the morning, but will be highest during the afternoon and evening. 

So…umbrellas and raincoats will become increasingly more necessary as the day wears on.  Drive slow!

-T.J. Del Santo

This is truly an amazing storm.  All around Rhode Island there are reports of 12-18″ of snow.  In Rhode Island, there’s only a coating to 4″.  Weird.  We’ve been constantly stuck in those ‘hole’ of light or no snow.  Here’s an example from our Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar.

Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar showing an unusual lack of snow fallin in RI, but lots of snow all around the Ocean State.

And what is amazing is there is a tremendous long fetch of moist air being fed into Southern New England off the Atlantic.  Look at the Water Vapor image below.  The green represents the ‘wetter’ air, while the brown represents the ‘drier’ air.  One would think that we would be getting something more than a coating to 4″ in Rhode Island with such a moist inflow of air into the region.  We’re not.   

This is a very large storm approximately 600 miles away from Providence.  A typical storm out that far in the Atlantic Ocean would barely have any effect on us here in Rhode Island.  The storm center is slow-moving and at times has been stationary.  The storm center is interacting with an area of high pressure to its north creating strong easterly winds, which have been feeding moisture into Southern New England since Wednesday.  Now that the sun is up, any significant accumulations in RI are unlikely.  However, roads remain slick (especially side streets).  Please drive/walk with great care.

-T.J. Del Santo

While most of Rhode Island got very little, the roads are pretty slick (especially the side streets).  Highways are mostly okay, but still excercise caution.  Here are some of the reports.  Bristol County, Massachusetts got the most in our area.

…BRISTOL COUNTY, MASSACHUSETTS…
   WEST BRIDGEWATER     12.0  500AM  
   MANSFIELD                         10.0  1200 AM 
   TAUNTON                             8.7  1200 AM  
   NORTON                                8.3   727 PM  
   NORTH ATTLEBORO        6.5   940 PM  
   ATTLEBORO                        6.0   739 PM  
   DIGHTON                            4.0   835 PM  
   FALL RIVER                       3.2   644 PM  
   NEW BEDFORD                  2.0  1141 PM    
   ACUSHNET                          1.3  

RHODE ISLAND

BRISTOL COUNTY…
   BRISTOL                               2.0  1019 PM 

KENT COUNTY…
   2 NNW WARWICK          1.0  1200 AM 

PROVIDENCE COUNTY…
   WOONSOCKET             4.0  1201 AM  

   NORTH CUMBERLAND       3.0   
   WEST GLOCESTER                2.2   852 PM 
   PAWTUCKET                          1.0   515 PM  

   PROVIDENCE                        1.0  1200 AM  

   GREENVILLE                        0.7  1014 PM 

Good Morning,

Light rain and snow showers will continue today as damp ocean air streams overhead on a strengthening northeast wind.  While this will make for a dreary day, travel should be ok through both this morning and this evening’s commute.

Steadier, heavier snow will begin to overspread our area overnight.  And that’s when accumulations will begin in southern New England.  We should wake up to messy travel conditions in many areas on Thursday morning… as snow will be falling at a good clip along with strong northeast winds gusting over 40mph at times.  I did trim the accumulations down a bit from last night because I am concerned that snow may have a tough time accumulating during the daylight hours with temperatures above freezing and a relatively stronger March sun (compared with early this winter). In fact, roadways may remain mainly “wet” on Thursday…even as snow falls at steadily, and at times heavily throughout the day.   Keep in mind, this is a storm that will drag on and on… so these accumulation amounts will be realized over about a 30hr time frame.

Snowfall Forecast

The bigger story with this storm will be the battering waves and strong winds that will lead to significant coastal flooding and beach erosion for areas along the Eastern Massachusetts coastline through Cape Cod and the Islands… including Block Island.  These are areas that have been vulnerable to erosion and flooding after the damage from Hurricane Sandy and the February Blizzard.  We’ll be watching over three tide cycles… starting from tomorrow morning’s high tide through Friday morning’s high tide. Storm surge of 1-3ft possible with wave heights over 15ft in parts of Cape Cod Bay and Near Scituate, MA.  The pounding seas and continues strong winds could lead to more beach erosion.  The effects will be less along the coast of RI, but some additional beach erosion is certainly possible.

Overnight computer models continue to hint that the slow-moving coastal storm will track close enough to southern New England to bring a long duration of strong winds and rain/snow/sleet.  There are still differences, depending on the exact track of the storm with how much of it falls as rain and how much falls as snow.  We’re leaning towards a “mostly rain” scenario for areas near the coast and a higher chance for accumulating wet snow in northern RI… especially higher elevations north and west of I-295.  Snow will likely have a tough time accumulating during the daytime with marginal temperatures and a stronger March sun…. that said, any snow that does accumulate will be heavy and wet, and could lead to a greater risk of downed limbs, branches and isolated power outages.

Storm Details

TIMING: 

• WED AM:  Starts dry… light snow/rain showers developing by lunchtime
• WED AFTERNOON:  Lighter rain/snow showers… little to no accumulation, northeast winds strengthen

HEIGHT OF STORM

• WED NIGHT:  Rain and snow turns steadier and heavier.  Some accumulations for NW RI.  Strong wind gusts 45mph+

• THU:  Periods of rain and snow, heavy at times–additional accumulations possible, strong northeast winds continue through the day.  Coastal flooding and beach erosion possible at high tide cycles

New 12z data will be coming in through the morning and we’ll have an update… and accumulation map for you.

 As I begin typing this post at 9:23pm on Sunday evening, the latest computer model guidance is rolling in.  While I await the Tue-Wed-Thu time frame of that model to arrive, I’ll let you know about something that could be more impactful this week than snow/rain…and that’s the impact on the coast.

Computer models not only can predict snow, rain, temperatures and winds, but they can also predict water levels.  Looking at that computer model guidance for Newport and Block Island below, we could be seeing some minor to moderate coastal flooding along the south coasts of Rhode Island.

Computer Model Tidal Predictions for Newport, RI

Computer Model Guidance of Tidal Predictions for Block Island, RI

Notice the part that of the black line that goes above the Highest Astronomical tide or “HAT” line.   That is where the water is expected to rise above what is called the grass-line and that is where people tend to build.  This coastal flooding would take place around the Thursday morning high tide.

There is no guidance available for the coastline of South County (that I’m aware of), but the flooding values for southeast Connecticut are greater than what is represented here for Newport and Block Island.  Communities from  Narragansett to Westerly could see coastal flooding as well…perhaps even higher.

Something else interesting to note:  the red line in the Newport data.  That is the observed tide. it is higher than the predicted tide!  Just another little nugget to consider…the forecasted water heights could end up being a little higher than what is depicted here.

The storm is a few days away and we have lots of time to watch things….but just something to consider.

The NAM model is almost done….going to look at that, and I’ll pass along the latest information to you tonight at 10 on Fox Providence and on Channel 12 at 11.

-T.J. Del Santo

 I’m closely watching the Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar and the temperatures this evening. 

Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar showing light snow moving out of Southern Worcester County into Northern Rhode Island at 7:38pm.

The Doppler Radar is showing a batch of light snow sinking into Northern Rhode Island as I type.  I’ve got reports of some light snow, so I know this is reaching the ground.  I’m thinking that this WILL stick to some surfaces, including roads.  Temperatures in Northern Rhode Island have already cooled to 32° or lower.  Drive carefully! Some side streets, especially, could become slick this evening.

Temperatures as of 7:45pm Sunday evening. Notice the temperatures at the freezing mark (32°F) in Northern Rhode Island. Any light snow could begin to stick on some surfaces.

Looking farther down the road, we continue to monitor a storm that will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Wednesday.  Indications from our computer guidance are that this storm will stay far enough to our south that we will be seeing only fringe effects.  Some light snow/ice is possible.  There may be more of an impact with the wind and minor coastal flooding at the times of high tides.  We will monitor the progress of this storm closely.

-T.J. Del Santo

Even though the calendar version of spring doesn’t begin until March 20, from a weather stand-point we mark today, March 1, as the first day of meteorological spring.  Here’s a wrap-up of Winter 2012-2013 released today from the National Weather Service:

PROVIDENCE

PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT

        AVG HIGH     AVG LOW   AVG MEAN     PCPN         SNOW         REMARKS ——–

• DEC:       45.7         31.0         38.4               5.55                 9.3                TIED FOR 8TH WARMEST
  •   +3.4        +4.7           +4.1               +1.33           +0.6

• JAN:       39.4          23.2          31.3             1.93               6.5
  •  +2.0          +2.2             +2.1            -1.93             -2.5

• FEB:       37.9          24.0           31.0               5.03            24.3               7TH SNOWIEST
  •   -2.4           +0.4           -1.0               +1.74          +15.8

SEASONAL SUMMARY —————-

• WINTER:   41.0        26.1        33.6             12.51            40.1
  •       +1.0       +2.5         +1.8             +1.14            +13.9

RECORDS ——-

01/31…TIED RECORD HIGH…62…ALSO SET IN 1988.

02/27…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…1.22…PREVIOUSLY 1.06 IN 1913.

In summary, meteorological winter in RI was warmer than average and snowier than average.

We won’t see nearly as much rain as yesterday, but it’s still going to be an unsettled, damp and cloudy day.  A broad area of low pressure continues to spin over the northeast, sending scattered rain and snow showers over New England.  During the daytime today, it will be warm enough in SE New England for just plain rain showers… Rainfall totals should be under 0.25″.

With the drier stretch overnight, water levels at the Pawtuxet River crested at about 9.1ft, just slightly over the 9ft flood stage.  Water is receding and levels are below flood stage, leading the National Weather Service to cancel the flood warning.  However, a FLOOD WARNING has been issued for the Pawcatuck River in Westerly.  The river is affected not only by rainfall but also by the tide cycles… and with water levels close to flood stage from yesterday’s heavy rain, some minor flooding is possible around the 10:30am high tide.  Water levels are expected to recede after high tide.

Pawcatuck River Water levels

We’ll be keeping an eye on the radar overnight, with the potential for rain showers to transition to light snow showers.  As temperatures fall, we could see some slick spots develop for the Friday morning commute.

The storm system responsible for this stretch of unsettled weather will slowly drift east through the weekend.  Extra cloudiness and even a sprinkle or flurry is possible over the weekend… but without a winter storm bearing down on our area, it looks like the nicest weekend we’ve seen in about a month!!

THIS WEEKEND

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Water levels will rise slowly on the Pawtuxet River overnight thru early Thursday morning. River forecast to crest at 9.4, which is about 6 inches above flood stage. This will produce minor flooding along parts of the river. Water levels will fall to below flood stage by Thursday afternoon and evening. The combination of snow melt and Wednesday’s heavy rains are the reason for the water rise.

How does this compare with the historical flood from several years ago? …back then the river crested at 2o feet above flood stage….the forecast this time around is about 6 inches above.

Forecast Of Water Rise On Pawtuxet…Will Crest 5-6 inches Above Flood Stage

T.F. Green Airport broke a 100 year old record today with its rainfall.  As of 5pm, 1.22″ of rain fell in Providence.  The old record was 1.06″ of rain was set on February 27, 2013.

Generally, 1 to 1.75″ of rain fell across the area today.  The most fell in Coventry where 1.75″ of rain fell.

-T.J. Del Santo

The following is from the National Weather Service…. 

Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar has been tracking a line of very heavy rain moving through Rhode Island–basically right up Interstate 95.  Expect brief, but heavy downpours through the Providence Metro area through 3pm.  In addition, winds have been gusting as high as 51mph in Warwick.  Be sure to follow us on Twitter for frequent updates:

T.J. Del Santo: @tjdelsanto

Pinpoint Weather Team: @PinpointWxTeam

And watch Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar on our website at http://www.wpri.com/subindex/weather/radar

-T.J. Del Santo

It’s been a pouring rain all morning, leading to water-logged streets and poor drainage flooding, rough timing for the evening commute—but on the bright side, at least you don’t have to break out the scrapers and shovels.

As the steady rain tapers to lighter showers and drizzle this afternoon, rainfall totals may top 1″ in spots.  Unlike other storm that are in and out in a day, this storm is going to linger… and linger… and linger…. giving us a stretch of unsettled weather for Thursday and Friday.  The storm will weaken as it hangs around, so just intermittent showers expected by Tonight and into Thursday and Friday.  An abundance of clouds and chilly temperatures will make for a dreary finish to February, though.

Good news for weekenders…. we still have a storm-free weekend on the way with partly sunny skies and slightly below average temperatures.

Enjoy today… it will probably be one of the nicest days this week.  Part of the same storm system that brought the record blizzard to the deep south will be delivering a soaking rain to southern New England.  The rain may start with a period of snow/sleet after midnight tonight.

Ahead of the messy weather, we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds today and slightly warmer than normal temperatures with of 42-46. 

Overnight we’ll see the wintry mix arrive before warmer air moves in and “plain rain” takes over by early Wednesday morning.  Winds from the ESE with gust to near 40mph at times through early Wednesday and could pile up the water along the south coast of RI.  That could mean minor coastal flooding at the 8:30am high tide.  Nothing major, but definitely something to watch along our vulnerable south coast.  Here are some details:

– Wintry mix after midnight, quick change to plain rain for most.  Snow/sleet may linger NW RI where a small slushy accumlation possible

–Heavy rain Wednesday… especially before 3pm… around 1 inch of rainfall leading to localized street and poor drainage flooding

Precipitation Totals by Wed Night with about 0.5″ to 1.25″ of QPF
Per the 06z RPM model

–Showers linger on Wednesday night, Thursday and possibly into Friday as our storm system slowly creeps off-shore.

–As cold air drains in behind the slowly departing storm later Thursday, the rain showers may mix with or change back to wet snow showers.  Some small accumulations are possible Thursday night into early Friday

Twelve points about the weather here and elsewhere…

1. Expect rain overnight….a cold, light rain and sometimes just some drizzle.
2. Pockets of freezing rain will be found in areas north and west of Rhode Island through the night…drive carefully!!
3. Mainly rain across the area Sunday morning, but….
4. Rain mixes with and changes over to snow through the morning from north to south
5. Snow showers through the afternoon.
6. No accumulation of snow in the afternoon.
7. Showers at the Daytona 500 are possible….there could be some weather-related delays during the race.
8. Accumulating snow starts late afternoon
9. Snow continues through the evening
10. Snow ends around midnight Sunday/Monday
11. Total accumulations will range from 1 to 3″ in Northern Rhode Island, less toward the coast.
12. Watch for slick roadways Sunday evening  and Monday morning

 -T.J. Del Santo

Monitoring Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar closely and I’m noticing three things.

Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar

1) Rain is taking over right now….still some lingering sleet in northern RI. 

2) Also seeing some heavier downpours…we just had one here in East Providence

3) Back edge of the steady precipitation is moving through central CT.

So, after a coating of snow/ice in some spots (including on some interior roadways), warmer air is taking over.  I talked about that in my previous post.  But, the steadiest of the rain won’t be around for too much longer either.  However, we will likely see drizzle and occasional showers through most of the night.  The temperatures should be staying above freezing through the night, but some interior spots could hover around 32°F.  Please drive carefully!

-T.J. Del Santo

 As I type, rain is falling across parts of the area.  I’ve seen the temperatures at the surface cool a degree or two here and there.  That is because the rain is evaporating and cooler the air.  However, in the grand scheme of things, the atmosphere will be warming through the night.  Take a look at what the temperatures will be doing through the night, and notice the big spike in above freezing temps (temps greater than 0°C). 

Courtesy coolwx.com: Temperature in the low levels of the atmosphere from the NAM computer model. Warm layer is being pointed to by red arrows.

Because of this, I’m expecting any mix of precipitation to turn over to mainly rain.  In Northern Rhode Island (areas north of Route 295) there may be a mix of sleet and snow and rain throught the night; although no accumulations are expected.

In contrast, look at the colder air which will arrive on Sunday.

Courtesy coolwx.com: Temperature in the low levels of the atmosphere from the NAM computer model. Cold layer is being pointed to by blue arrows.

In fact, we may actually see the accumulating snow arrive on Sunday afternoon and evening as the temperatures cool.  The big question is how quickly does the surface cool on Sunday afternoon.  Right now, temps are expected to be in the mid 30′s in the afternoon, but falling.  We’ll have to track those temps closely…and we will!

-T.J. Del Santo

This morning there remains some uncertainty with where the rain/snow line ultimately sets up.  It’s a fine line between a heavy, wet snow and a pouring cold rain…. and our computer models continue to struggle with where that changeover will occur. That’s the reason why accumulation amounts are tricky in Southern New England.

There is less cold air around than the last 2 weekend storms and a track closer to the coast both support more of a snow-to rain-back to snow scenario.  Our 06z early morning runs of the NAM and GFS computer models this morning are showing a slightly colder set-up, with a burst of accumulating snow on the back side of the storm on Sunday morning.  That’s when the bulk of our accumulations will occur.  Combine the wet snow with gusty winds and there could be some isolated tree damage and power outages in our area—certainly nothing to the extent we saw with the Blizzard two weekends ago.  If the storm doesn’t intensify and there’s not a burst of snow on Sunday, then our accumulations would be much lower.

Here’s my updated accumulation map for the weekend:

Weekend Accumulations

It still looks like the highest accumulations from this storm will be in central New England.

It’s no great secret that we’ve had a pretty snowy month.  We are closing in on 2feet of snow February! I figured it MUST be one of the snowiest months ever, so I decided to ‘dig a little deeper’ into the numbers.

For February 2013, so far, we have had a total of 23.9″ of snowfall.  As of February 20th, seven of the 20 days had measurable snow and two had just a trace of snow.  Of course, most of the 23.9″ is from the Blizzard when 18″ fell at TF Green Airport.  It’s at the airport in Warwick where our snow records have been kept since 1905.  So where does February 2013 stand up to all the other February’s in the last 100+years?

The Number to Beat. 30.9″ is the most snow to have fallen at T.F. Green Airport in Warwick,RI during the month of February, dating back to 1905.

Currently, Feb-2013 is tied for 7th all time with the year 1945.  The year 1962 was the snowiest February in our history, followed by 1978.  Even if you weren’t around during the Blizzard of 1978, you’ve certainly heard the stories and seen the incredible video and pictures.  Amazingly, all of that 28.6″ of snow for February 1978 fell during the Blizzard.  There was not any other measurable snow for the rest of that month. 

Top 10 Snowiest February’s at T.F. Green Since 1905

1. 1962: 30.9″
2. 1978: 28.6″
3. 1969: 26.7″
4. 1907: 26.2″
5. 1994: 25.8″
6. 2003: 24.7″
7. 2013 and 1945 23.9″
8. 1967: 23.1″
9. 1934: 22.9″
10. 1920: 22.8″

In case you were wondering, during the winter of ’95-’96 we got an astounding 105.2″ of snow!  That is the record for an entire season at TF Green.  We won’t be coming close to that record, don’t worry….gulp..I hope!  Not out-of-reach, however, is this month being one of the snowiest months ever for the area.

The Top 10 Snowiest Months at T.F. Green Airport Since 1905

1. Jan 1996: 37.4″
2. Jan 2005: 36.7″
3. Jan 1948: 31.7″
4. Mar 1956: 31.6″
5. Feb 1962: 30.9″
6. Jan 2011: 30.7″
7. Jan 1965: 28.7″
8. Feb 1978: 28.6″
9. Feb 1969 and Dec 1945: 26.7″
10. Feb 1907: 26.2″

So, here we are with 8 more days left in the month, and we are faced with another weekend storm.  This one looks like it will feature some rain, possibly as far inland as the airport in Warwick.  We need another 7inches of snow to tie the all-time record.  Breaking that record with at least 31″ of snow, would put this month in the top 5 snowiest months.  Can we do it? Definitely! Some computer model projections indicate we could see 6-8″ of snow at the airport from the upcoming weekend storm.  Don’t take that as the official forecast, however, because we are still 3days away from the first flakes flying.  If we come up a little bit short, there’s the chance for a little more snow next Tue/Wed!

I’m not a snow-lover, but I think it would be pretty cool to break the all-time February snow record.  Let it snow! (Can’t believe I just typed that).

-T.J. Del Santo

Can we go 3 for 3 with weekend storms?  Last two weekends have had southern New Eglanders hunkering down as snow and wind whipped through… and our computer models are suggesting it may happen again.  In fact, all of the overnight computer models were forecasting a coastal storm moving southeast of our area over the weekend… with the most likely time from Saturday night into Sunday.

As is typical 5-6 days out, the computer models are all showing the storm, but the track, timing and intensity are different… leading to a variety of possible solutions–from a soaking rain to a plow-able snow.  Here’s the latest morning run of the GFS model, showing a scenario of rain changing to snow.

12z GFS Valid at 1am Sunday

One thing is certain, the weather pattern remains an active one.  And not just for this week–but possibly into early March.

After the weekend snow and a frigid Monday, it’s hard to believe that the next system to make it’s way into southern New England will deliver rain.

However, temperatures will warm significantly before the next batch of precipitation falls, enough so that it should be wet and not white.

We’ll begin to climb out of the deep freeze early tomorrow as temperatures quickly climb above freezing early Tuesday morning.  We’ll continue the climb in the afternoon… into the mid to upper 40s with increasing clouds on a southwest wind.  Rain will move in ahead of a cold front by about 5-6pm and continue into the first part of the night.

Futurecast Tuesday

Temperatures will stay in the 40s early in the night before dropping into the 30s.   Weather looks pretty quiet from Wednesday through Friday.

Winds will remain strong through the night and blowing and drifting snow is likely.  Visibilities may drop briefly and roads could be snow-covered. 

The falling snow is done for RI and Bristol County, MA, but it’s still snowing on the Cape (as of 8:30pm)…here are the updated snow totals….

…BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
   BREWSTER                          6.3   110 PM  2/17  HAM RADIO
   WEST BARNSTABLE        5.0   320 PM  2/17  PUBLIC
   HYANNIS                            5.0   105 PM  2/17  HAM RADIO
   WELLFLEET                       4.3   205 PM  2/17  HAM RADIO
   SOUTH YARMOUTH       4.0  1114 AM  2/17  HAM RADIO
   MASHPEE                            3.0  1122 AM  2/17  HAM RADIO
   BARNSTABLE                    3.0   205 PM  2/17  HAM RADIO MARSTON MILLS

…BRISTOL COUNTY…
   NEW BEDFORD                  5.0  1226 PM  2/17  HAM RADIO
   ACUSHNET                          4.0  1114 AM  2/17  HAM RADIO
   TAUNTON                           4.0  1227 PM  2/17  NWS OFFICE- FINAL TOTAL
   FAIRHAVEN                      3.8  1250 PM  2/17  HAM RADIO
   MANSFIELD                       3.5   157 PM  2/17  SPOTTER
   FALL RIVER                       3.5   927 AM  2/17  GENERAL PUBLIC
   DIGHTON                             3.4  1216 PM  2/17  NWS EMPLOYEE
   REHOBOTH                          2.0   713 AM  2/17  NWS EMPLOYEE

RHODE ISLAND

…BRISTOL COUNTY…
   BRISTOL                              4.0  1106 AM  2/17  MEDIA
   BARRINGTON                    3.3   906 AM  2/17  MEDIA

…KENT COUNTY…
   2 NNW WARWICK           3.7   100 PM  2/17  TF GREEN AIRPORT
   WARWICK                          3.5   110 PM  2/17  SPOTTER

…PROVIDENCE COUNTY…
   GLOCESTER                          4.0  1120 AM  2/17  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PROVIDENCE                      3.7   337 PM  2/17  SPOTTER
   NORTH FOSTER                 3.3   209 PM  2/17  COOP OBSERVER
   SCITUATE                             3.3   958 AM  2/17  MEDIA

…WASHINGTON COUNTY…
   NARRAGANSETT              2.5   712 AM  2/17  HAM RADIO
   WESTERLY                           2.0   918 AM  2/17  GENERAL PUBLIC

Watching a developing storm system off the Carolina coastline which will move to the Gulf of Maine by tomorrow afternoon and rapidly intensify.  It will strengthen so rapidly, it will be said to be undergoing a process called Bombogensis where the surface pressure falls 24mb within 24hours.  The intensification could exceed that rate.

Through the evening, temperatures will be dropping into the low 30′s by midnight everywhere and into the mid to upper 20′s by dawn.  Meanwhile, that intensifying low will be headed to a position approximately 150miles to the south of Nantcuket.  Our snow will fall the heaviest as it approaches and just begins to move northeast of us. The heaviest will be between 5am and 11am. 

Also, as the storm continues its rapid intensifcation our winds will strengthen.  Wind gusts between 35 and 55mph are possible from N’rn RI to the Cape, respectively.  Interestingly enough, our in-house computer charts are indicating 3hours of sustained winds of 35mph at Hyannis–with the snow, blizzard conditions are possible out there.   With these winds, isolated power outages are again possible!!!

Also, this will be a very fluffy snow, easier to clear, but it will blow and drift around a lot. 

In conclusion, here are some important points:

• Snow through the night until about noon on Sunday
• Heaviest 5am – 11am
• Generally 4-7″ for our area
• Strong winds from the northwest gusting between 35 and 55mph
• Power outages possible
• Fluffy snow…lots of blowing and drifting through the day on Sunday

Here’s how much fluff I’m expecting…

Forecasted snow amounts

The weekend forecast continues to be a tricky one, as our computer models this morning are still showing a variety of tracks for an ocean storm Saturday into Sunday.  The trend has been a track closer to our coastline, with potential accumulating snow.   Here’s a look at two different accumulation maps from the GFS and NAM…

06z GFS Valid Sunday Night

06z NAM Valid Sunday Evening

the GFS shows moderate accumulations (5-10″) while the NAM shows all of the accumulations off shore.  These are the two extremes…. the reliable ECMWF is in between, with a track close enough to bring several inches of snow by mid-morning.  It’s still an evolving forecast, so check back in for updates.  My early call is for 3-6″ of snow, though this is not a final forecast.

• Timing
  • Lighter rain/snow showers during the day, little to no accums
  • Turning Heavier at Night, Moderate Accums during this time
  • Tapering off Sunday morning
• Impact
  • Poor travel Saturday night and Sunday Morning
  • Not as significant as Blizzard.  Widespread power outages are not expected
  • Temperatures fall, winds pick up on Sunday.  Some gusts over 40mph possible by evening.

So many viewers have sent some amazing pictures documenting the Blizzard of 2013 for themselves and the rest of Southern New England.  We’ve seen the beauty photos and the fun photos.  They are all fantastic! There have also been a few photos which have really caught my eye, but they’re not from viewers, but from satellites and aircraft.

The first is from a NASA satellite as the Blizzard was pulling away. on Saturday.  Notice the well-defined swirl and a well-defined eye like structure near the center.  You can see the back edge of the clouds coming across Rhode island and the fresh snowpack over New York and Connecticut.

Courtesy NASA: Blizzard 2013 pulling away from New England with an eye-structure at the center.

The second is also from a satellie picture but from Sunday, showing a number of different features.  Look at Southern, NJ…that is an area with minimal snowfall during the storm.  The rest of the region with the whitish look is where the snowfell.  You’ll notice that the almost-frozen-over Scituate Reservoir isn’t visible.  Instead, it is snow-covered.  Also, look closely from Springfield headed to Sturbridge, MA that there is a line.  That is the scar from the 2011 Springfield tornado! Amazing!

Courtesy NASA: Fresh Snowcover over New England

 The last picture, I saw today from a photographer over Logan Airport in Boston, also showing the fresh snowfall over Beantown.  Photographer Scott Eisen (@scotteisenphoto) shared this on Twitter.  He took it while 30,000 feet over Boston.  You can see the runways plowed and the skyscrapers of the Financial district.  Amazing picture! 

-T.J. Del Santo

For snow-weary Southern New Englanders I have a bit of good news. The threat of significant accumulations from our next weather disturbance for Wednesday night is diminishing this morning.  The overnight and early morning computer guidance are shifting the storm track further off-shore… keeping the bulk of accumulating snow over the ocean waters to our south.  That’s the good news.  However, it will likely still track close enough to give our area–particularly coastal communities– a period of light snow from Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Here’s the latest run of the RPM model valid at 11pm Wednesday. :

RPM Model Valid 11pm Wednesday

Accumulations based on the latest track shifts southward would be small… a dusting to perhaps an inch or 2.  If the trend off-shore continues, amounts could be even lighter.

A similar trend is developing for the weekend storm system, too.  Our more reliable computer models have this storm south of the benchmark (40/70 lat/lon lines).  If that storm track is correct our area would be spared any major accumulations.  However, the weekend storm is a large and powerful storm and will need to be carefully monitored for any shift in the track.