Scituate, MA: 46 MPH Gust at 334 PM
Brookline, MA (Clay Center): 44 MPH Gust at 357 PM
Milton, MA (non-asos site): 44 MPH Gust at 336 PM
Hingham, MA: 42 MPH Gust at 356 PM
Rockport, MA: 42 MPH Gust at 312 PM
Gloucester, MA: 41 MPH Gust at 310 PM

Northboro, MA: 3.2″
Rocky Hill, CT: 3.2″
Hudson, MA: 3.0″
Southington (Marion section), CT: 3.0″
Smithfield, RI: 3.0″
Dorchester, MA: 2.6″
Dudley, MA: 2.5″
Eastford, CT: 2.5″
Ashford, CT: 2.5″
Hanson, MA: 2.5″
Rocky Hill, CT: 2.5″
Boylston, MA: 2.5″
Danielson, CT: 2.3″
Pomfret, CT: 2.0″
Waltham, MA: 2.0″
Hingham, MA: 2.0″
Holbrook, MA: 2.0″
Charlestown, RI: 2.0″
Warwick, RI: 2.0″
Franklin, MA: 2.0″ (Wind Gust: 33 MPH measured on Kestrel)
Walpole, MA: 2.0″
Hopedale, MA: 1.8″
Wayland, MA: 1.5″
Wrentham, MA: 1.3″
East Walpole, MA: 1.2″
Millis, MA: 1.0″
Everett, MA: 1.0″

Some more historical info for you….this info comes from Cory Pesaturo, a former weather intern here at Channel 12. 
He has worked hard to gather this information.  Thanks Cory! Could his #1 be toppe with this storm? Likely not…but ya never know!!!

Feb. 5-7, 1978 – 50″ 1st Place
Feb. 22-28, 1969 – 36″ 2nd Place
Mar. – Ap. 1, 1997 – 30″ 3rd Place
Jan. 22-23, 2005 – 27″ 4th Place
March 3-5, 1960 – 24″ 5th Place
Dec. 11-12, 1992 – 24″ 6th Place
Jan. 6-8, 1996 – 24″ 6th Place
Feb. 8-10, 1969 – 24″ 6th Place

-T.J. Del Santo

Quick look at the two players in this….

One part of the upcoming storm is a fairly impressive storm in itself.  Widespread snow is falling across the Great Lakes States and there is some very potent energy with this system.  This system will be merging with the other storm you see on the right hand corner of the screen….a process called phasing.  This process is not uncommon.

Satellite and Radar from Thu 9:30pm

A look at the Southern Stream Storm is showing quite a bit of lightning off the Carolina Coast…a sign that this part of the storm packs quite a punch in itself. 

Courtesty Vaisala: Cloud-to-ground lightning

The winner will be the Southern Stream storm. This is the one that will take over and rapidly intensify as it heads to just south of RI by tomorrow night. 

Oh, there is actually is a third and very important part to get a major snow storm…that is a cold area of high pressure to our north.  That is in place too! -tj

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

New data coming this evening continues to point to very strong wind gusts that will occur later Friday night into Saturday Morning…Infact gusts of 70-80 mph possible along the south shore and just offshore. Last time the coast had gusts like that was during Hurricane Sandy. As TJ DelSanto mentioned in previous blog, major south coast flooding (surge) is not likely. However, large waves and surf are likely. Power outages will occur in spots, especially where tree limbs and power lines are weighted down due to heavy wet snow…

Wind Gust MPH From High Resolution RPM Computer Model Valid 11PM Friday

Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories for the Blizzard of 2013

We’ve gotten a couple of questions about the possibility of coastal flooding in Narragansett Bay.  While east coastal Massachusetts and Long Island sound will see some coastal flooding at the time of high tide tomorrow evening, Narragansett Bay will not. 

Now with that said, notice the light blue area over southeast CT.  There could potentially be some minor coastal flooding in those areas….including Little Narragansett Bay in Westerly. 

Here’s the tidal gauge info from Quonset Point with a forecasted water level. 

Courtesy NOAA: Tidal Gauge from Quonset Point

And from Conimicut Point in Warwick…

The purple dashed line is the forecast…notice at the peaks (high tide) we are not seeing the line break into the “Minor Flooding” section. At Conimicut the line does get into the “Action Stage”.  There, it’s something to watch, but there’s not enough of a fetch across the bay for the Northeasterly winds to produce a surge/coastal flooding.  Some splashover is possible in spots (Narragansett-Ocean Road), but in general no coastal flooding of any significance is expected.  Again, some minor flooding is possible to the north of Watch Hill in Westerly.

We will be monitoring this and all situations closely.

-tj

 We are expecting the snow to begin in the morning…light at first…but really picking up throughout the afternoon.  The heaviest snowfall will be Friday evening into Saturday morning.  That’s when we could be seeing some snowfall rates of 3-4″ per hour.  Also keep in mind that it will be extremely windy.  There will be a lot of blowing and drifting snow with winds of 40-60mph with some higher gusts.  Be safe. -tj

Here’s how the snow will pile up on Friday: 

How the snow will pile up through Friday…

And now through Saturday beginning with what fell through Friday….

How the Snow will pile up through Saturday beginnig with what feel through Friday

We look at many different computer models to make our forecasts.  To be honest, we leaned our accumulation heavily on the European Computer Model which has shown extraordinary consistency this week.  1 to 2 feet is still expected, but an area of central and Northern Rhode Island could see more than 30″.  We expanded this area to fit with current model trends and climatology.  Keep in mind, there will be a lot of blowing and drifting of the snow through the snow.  Some drifts could be as high as 5 feet.  Without further to-do, here it is…

-T.J. Del Santo

Our computer models are continuing this morning to show a major winter storm—a pretty classic nor’easter–impacting New England on Friday into early Saturday.  It’s a storm that has the potential to be the most significant storm of the season, so far, for our area.  While we’re feeling more confident that the storm will impact our area… there are still disagreements among our computer models about the track and intensity of the storm–and how much/how long/ how far north the mix with or changeover to rain/sleet will be.  That is one of the trickier forecast details that has yet to be worked out, and it will affect our snowfall accumulations with this storm.  The two main camps are the European/RPM models vs the GFS Model.  The Euro/RPM is the colder/snowier scenario for southern New England:

06z RPM Accum Snow Through Friday Night

Yes–that’s 1.5ft to 2ft+ of snow for most of our area!

On the flip side, the GFS is continuing to show a warmer scenario, with snow changing to rain for much of southern New England for a time late day Friday into Friday evening.  That means much less snow locally—heaviest snow would be farther north in MA/NH/ME.

00z GFS Snow Accums through Saturday AM

This model still shows 6-10″ for inland areas of RI… but only 3-6″ along the coast.  Huge difference between the models, right?  That’s why we’re going to continue pouring over the weather data over the next few days and keep you updated on the latest information.  Here’s what we are thinking for timing/impacts:

Storm Futurecast

               It was the week Rhode Island stood still.  There were some reports of 4-5 feet of snow with drifts up to 27feet. One hundred people perished, and there was nearly $2 Billion in damage (2012 money).  The Blizzard of 1978 was a catastrophic snow storm for Southern New England…with major effects on Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut. 

Courtesy NOAA: Blizzard of 1978 satellite image showing an eye-like feature near the center.

It developed on February 5th off the Carolina coast, and the first snow flakes began to fall in Rhode Island during the late morning of February 6th.   Children were already in school, and people were already at work.  Once it was realized that this storm meant business, it was too late.  Cars were stranded on the highways with 1,950 cars stranded on Routes 95, 195 and 146 in the Greater Providence area alone.  Many lost their lives from carbon monoxide poisoning when the snow piled up over the tail pipes of cars.  School children were stuck in their schools for days.  One of the saddest stories was from Uxbridge, MA where a little boy went missing for 3 days.  He was found just steps from his front door, buried in feet of snow.

Cars Stuck on Route 95 in Providence

It snowed for an amazing 36 hours!  Providence received nearly 3 feet of snow, while an unofficial report from Lincoln measured nearly 5feet!   Snowfall rates were staggering and showed the intensity this storm packed.  Generally, 2-3″ per hour were observed, but 4inches per hour were measured, mainly where thundersnow was reported.  Despite those snowfall rates, the incredible snow totals were mostly due to the slow movement of the storm.  A very strong area of high pressure to the north of the storm blocked its forward progress, allowing Southern New England to be pummelled with snow and house-rattling winds for an extended period of time.  Providence and Boston both broke 24 hour snowfall records during this storm, each with 27inches.

Courtesy: Boston Globe. A home in Revere, MA destroyed by large waves.

What makes a blizzard different from a regular snow storm is the wind.  The winds howled at hurricane strength  during the ’78storm.  Chatham, Massachusetts had a wind gust of 93mph.   The storm’s verocity was similar to that of a Category 1 Hurricane….except one that moved very slowly.  The storm hit during a New Moon and tides were about 4 feet above normal.  Winds put another 12 feet on top of that! Hundreds of houses along east coastal Massachusetts were destroyed.  In Rhode Island, whipping winds and snow dropped visibilities to zero for many hours.  It was difficult to see where you were going (that’s if you could go anywhere). Once the snow and wind stopped, the governors of Massachusetts, Rhode island and Connecticut declared States of Emergency.  Rhode Island Governor J. Joseph Garrahy activated the National Guard to help clear the snow.  The State was essentially shut down for a week.  While a lot of bad came out of the storm, a lot of good emerged.  Everyone was affected equally and neighbors helped neighbors get through this event.

The Blizzard of ’78 came at a time when weather forecasting was much more difficult.  Computer models had recently emerged, but weren’t timely enough.  With that said, forecasters actually made a good forecast for the Blizzard, but bad forecasts earlier that winter lowered the public’s confidence in the meteorologists’ abilities.  For what it’s worth, even if public confidence was high, no one could have expected or been ready for what actually happened.

In 2013, computer models are much more sophisticated, and we get the information in a much more timely manner than they did in the late 70′s.  The emergence of the Internet has allowed meteorologists to use computer models from around the world including Canada, Great Britain and Japan.  Forecasts and possible impacts have become much more accurate during the past 35 years and that accuracy will only continue to improve with the emergence of better computer models. -T.J. Del Santo

Snow has been overspreading our area since this morning… and while the snow has been steady for several hours already, it’s not amounting to much.  That should be the case as light snow continues to fall through this evening and tonight.  The main concern will be for the coating of snow leading to slick conditions on untreated surfaces.  Be careful walking on sidewalks, parking lots and, of course, driving today!  Total snowfall accumulations by tomorrow morning will generally be under 1″ of snow.  Though some isolated totals up to 2″ possible.  This is being caused be a series of weak disturbances passing well to our south.

Accumulations

The main event this week, though, is focused on Friday.  Our computer models this morning continue to be in disagreement with how a potential winter storm will evolve from Thursday night into Friday night.  One computer model, the ECWMF, continues to be very bullish with the development of the storm.  The 00z model shows a major winter storm impactng southeastern New England, with accumulating snow and potentially a period of a wintry mix along the coast.  And the 12z GFS has just come in with a much stronger storm and a track much closer to the coast—much more in line with what the ECWMF’s been saying.

12z GFS Valid 7pm Fri

Other models are still weaker and further south… but are showing signs of trending towards the ECWMF.  It’s still too soon to say, so stay tuned!

Temperatures will be chilly through the work week with afternoon highs running at or below average.  While several weak disturbances will pass by southern New England over the next few days… the only potentially significant storm of note looks to be on Friday.  Our computer models are still all over the place with the track and intensity of this storm, but if the European Model (ECWMF 00z) is correct, a major storm with a variety of precipitation types would be possible–snow-rain-sleet.

After the Friday storm system, a stretch of warmer-than-average temperatures looks likely heading into the middle of February.  I have our temperatures climbing into the 40s by Sunday afternoon.  The trade-off with the milder temperatures will also come some stormy conditions, too… so we could be looking at some rain mid-month.  Here’s the Climate Prediction Center’s temperature anomaly forecast for February 11-17, followed by the precipitation probability:

Temperatures Anomalies for Feb. 11-17

Precipitation Anomalies for Feb 11-17

Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar

Some light snow beginning to work into Rhode Island could create some slickspots on area roads.  Ocean Effect snow bands are reaching across Bristol County, MA and into the East Bay of RI.  Also, Northern Rhode Island is seeing some light snow, including Woonsocket, Cumberland and Burrillville.  Some slicks spots are possible on area roadways.  Be careful while driving this evening.  -tj  

Light snow collecting on the Rhode Show ride in East Providence, RI

As I’m typing this quick blog, the temperature in East Rutherford, NJ is 26°F with partly cloudy skies.  Yes, that’s where they are playing the next SuperBowl.  Now THAT is football weather.  My pick for this year’s game is the 49′ers by 14.  More importantly, my outlook for the 2014 SuperBowl is Patriots over the 49′ers 30-27….AND there will be accumulating snow during the game: 6-8″ in northern New Jersey with a strong northeast wind and temps in the upper 20′s.  I’m going to tuck this forecast away and see how it pans out. -tj

Wow! What a morning!  Torrential downpours and powerful winds knocked out power to more than 23,000 Rhode Islanders and lead to school delays and cancellations as well as numerous reports of wind damage all across New England.  It was a strong cold front moving through this morning that was responsible for the damaging winds.  Here are the latest wind gusts we’ve received as of 8:30am:

Peak Wind Gusts

And you can get the National Weather Service’s complete storm reports list here. And it looks like we’ve tied the record high for January 31, when we hit a high of 62° early this morning.  That ties the record from 1988.  Temperatures have already dropped in the 50s this morning, and we’ll be in the 40s by mid to late afternoon.

A warm front is heading our way… and it WILL bring milder weather for the middle of the work week.  But before that happens,  it’s going to be responsible for the messy weather heading our way this afternoon and evening.

We are expecting poor travel conditions for the evening commute as moderate snowfall and sleet will lead to reduced visibility and slick roads.  Timing is everything… and the snowfall amounts will be light, but the impacts may be high.

Here’s what we’re looking at for today with the first flakes arriving after 1pm in RI and spreading east:

Snow Timing

As temperatures warm this evening and tonight, the snow will eventually mix with and change to sleet, freezing rain and rain before tapering to drizzle after midnight.  The changeover will occur first at the coast and then spread inland.  Temperatures tonight are expected to hold steady or even rise a few degrees so that most areas are above freezing by 5am tomorrow.  Prior to the change to rain/freezing rain, an inch or two of snow can be expected for most, with lighter amounts at the coast.  On top of the snow will be a thin layer of glaze, adding to the slick conditions. Be careful this evening!!

Snowfall Accums

Once the warm front moves through, temperatures will respond by climbing into the 40s by Tuesday afternoon and then well into the 50s by Wednesday afternoon!  The warm-up doesn’t last long… a strong cold front will sweep through New England by Thursday morning and will bring back winter’s chill.

All week we’ve been tracking the potential for wintry weather tonight.  We’ve been watching the development of an ocean storm.  What we can tell you today is that:

1. The storm stays far out to sea and our area is only brushed by the outer edges of the storm
2. The storm intensifies AFTER it makes it’s closest pass to SE New England, again means lighter impacts
3. Snowfall accumulations will be small

We are looking at snow developing after 8pm and continuing into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday.  In general the snow will be light, but small accumulations can be expected when you wake up on Saturday morning.  Most of RI and Bristol County, MA will end up with a dusting to 1″ of snow.  However, closer to the coast, there’s still a chance of up to 2″ of snow.  It will be easy to clean up and should be over with before 7am on Saturday. 

The snow is moving out, and the arctic air is moving in.  This will be the coldest stretch of days we’ve seen so far this winter.  In fact, I don’t have our temperatures climbing above freezing until next Monday!

As for the snow…. one band of heavy snow ended up clipping the south coast and Cape Cod yesterday evening… delivering about 3-5″ of snow.  The second band of heavy snow that was anticipated over eastern MA and coastal NH and ME ended up positioned JUST off-shore.. so only the fish saw heavy snow overnight.  It was a tricky forecast indeed!  Here’s a map of the snowfall totals and some local storm reports we’ve received.

Snow Accums Map

Snow Reports

Blustery northwest winds are driving in a batch of Arctic air today, with temperatures only making into the mid and upper 20s this afternoon, evening with mostly sunny skies.  Wind chills are running in the single digits this morning and will still be in the lower ‘teens this afternoon.  Winds diminish tonight, and clear skies, a fresh snow pack and dry air are all ingredients for ideal cooling conditions… setting us up for a frigid stretch of nights.  I have temperatures next 3 nights dipping into the single digits.

Frigid Nights

Another ocean storm will be developing over the waters to our south on Friday and Friday night.  It has the potential to bring us accumulating snow.  There are still a lot of questions about the track and intensity of this storm and that will determine how much snow we see, and if there will be any sleet or rain mixing in (possibly at the coast).  Check back in for updates!

Snow is still in the cards for tonight… and confidence is growing on enough snow to not only need the shovels, but to also cause problems for the Tuesday morning commute.

This snow will be a lighter, fluffier snow than the other snow events this winter so far… meaning it will be easier to clean off of your cars and driveways, but will also have a higher snow-to-liquid ratio.  That will lead to it fluffing up and higher amounts than “usual” for the amount of precipitation we’re expecting.

Accumulation Amounts by Tuesday Morning

This updated accumulation map isn’t a big change from what TJ and Pete had over the weekend.  It’s still a tricky forecast, as a slight shift in the track of the storm and the eventual location of a surface (Nor-Lun) trough over New England will determine where the heavier snow bands will set up.  Some of our computer models are showing a heavier band possible along the south coast… so snowfall totals may still need to be adjusted, especially there.

Higher Amounts Possible at Coast

This morning the National Weather Service has placed RI and Bristol County under a Winter Weather Advisory with coastal MA still under a Winter Storm Watch.  Check back in for updates throughout the day today.

Weather Alert

This week: RIPEC’s John Simmons talks about the Senate “Moving the Needle” report and Dexter Credit Union CEO Stephen Angell talks about doing business in Central Falls amid the city’s bankruptcy.

The latest round of model information is into the Forecast Center regarding the snow Monday Night and Tuesday.    I didn’t change the forecast too much from our earlier forecasts.  This particular weather setup can be difficult to forecast.  Bands of snow often setup, and snow totals can vary greatly over relatively small geographical areas.  This will happen, and the worst will be over Eastern Massachusetts.  In fact, that’s where there is a Winter Storm Watch in effect (as of 11pm Sunday).

Rhode Island and Bristol County, MA will see some accumulating snow, just not as much as E’rn Mass.  In the Winter Storm Watch area, it’s possible to see spots of 8″ or more.  It’s a fairly progressive storm, meaning it won’t be snowing too long, but still big accumlutions are possible in spots.  Here’s what I’m expecting…not much difference from what Pete Mangione was forecasting earlier today.

Like last week, it’s not expected to be a blockbuster storm for us, but the timing is bad:  right before the morning commute and the start of the school day.  Look for more school delays this time.  In fact, time-wise, here’s how it should all play out. 

Again, this situation is difficult to forecast and we encourage you to stay tuned to further forecasts through the day on Monday.

-T.J. Del Santo

Not everyone saw snow as a storm system tracked well south of southeastern New England overnight… but we did see some small accumulations (dusting to 1.5″ from coastal RI to New Bedford… and as much as 3-5″ on parts of the Cape and  Nantucket).  Just that little bit of snow, combined with tumbling temperatures lead to very icy conditions on untreated surfaces. 

We’ve been receiving reports of icy side roads in Middletown, New Bedford and Westport… where a thin layer of snow was covering up an icy coating on the roads.  Be careful!

The other big story for today is the much colder temperatures. Brrr!  Plenty of sun, but it’s ineffective today.  High temperatures will struggle to return to the mid to upper 20s… and gusty northwest winds will make it feel like it’s in the ‘teens.

Hold on… because the cold is BRIEFLY gone over the weekend.  We’re back into the 40s during the afternoon on Saturday and Sunday along with dry and partly sunny skies.  Winds will remain busy with gusts up to 30mph.  If you are heading to the Pats game, make sure to layer up.  We’ll start tailgating temperatures near 40F… but by game time we’ll be dropping through the 30s and eventually into the 20s.  Add in the winds, and it will FEELlike it’s in the ‘teens.

Patriots Futurecast

Cold air will continue to rush in through Sunday night, and it’s looks like an extended stretch of mid-winter’s chill next week…. temperatures running below average from Monday through at least Thursday.

One snow storm down….MAYBE another early Friday.  Here’s a look back at some of the snow totals from this past storm which began early Wednesday morning:    RHODE ISLAND

…BRISTOL COUNTY…
   BARRINGTON                      3.0   749 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   BRISTOL                                 2.0   730 AM  1/16  BROADCAST MEDIA

…KENT COUNTY…
   WEST WARWICK                3.8  1149 AM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   WEST GREENWICH            3.5   648 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   2 NNW WARWICK              2.8  1252 PM  1/16  TF GREEN AIRPORT

A snow measurement in Cumberland, after the snow settled a bit. Courtesy Cory Pesaturo

…PROVIDENCE COUNTY…
   CUMBERLAND                    5.0   131 PM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH SCITUATE             4.2   930 AM  1/16  LAW ENFORCEMENT
   PROVIDENCE                      4.2   910 AM  1/16  FEDERAL HILL
   WEST GLOCESTER             4.1   251 PM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH FOSTER                 4.0   810 AM  1/16  CO-OP OBSERVER
   BURRILLVILLE                4.0   807 AM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   CRANSTON                         4.0   920 AM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   PAWTUCKET                      3.9   800 AM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   EAST PROVIDENCE        3.8   900 AM  1/16  EMERGENCY MANAGER
   GREENVILLE                    3.8  1222 PM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   FOSTER                                3.5   712 AM  1/16  PUBLIC

…WASHINGTON COUNTY…
   NORTH KINGSTOWN        2.6   715 AM  1/16  GENERAL PUBLIC
   SOUTH KINGSTOWN        2.0   632 AM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER

 MASSACHUSETTS

 …BRISTOL COUNTY…
   ATTLEBORO                            4.1   843 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   MANSFIELD                          3.5   850 AM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   TAUNTON                              3.2   930 AM  1/16  NWS OFFICE
   NORTH ATTLEBORO          3.2   745 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   NORTON                                 3.1   700 AM  1/16  CO-OP OBSERVER
   DIGHTON                             2.9   900 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   REHOBOTH                          2.8   645 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   ASSONET                              2.0  1058 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   ACUSHNET                          1.7   820 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   NEW BEDFORD                  1.0   824 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO

Snow in Scituate, RI where about 3″ of snow fell.

 …NORFOLK COUNTY…
   FOXBORO                            5.0   800 AM  1/16  CO-OP OBSERVER
   WALPOLE                           4.0   909 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   BROOKLINE                       4.0   945 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   MILLIS                                3.6  1030 AM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MILTON                              3.5  1007 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   WEYMOUTH                     3.3   842 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   WESTWOOD                      3.0  1154 AM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   FRANKLIN                         3.0   800 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO
   RANDOLPH                        3.0   956 AM  1/16  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORWOOD                          2.7   700 AM  1/16  NWS EMPLOYEE
   EAST BRAINTREE         1.0   942 AM  1/16  HAM RADIO

We look at a number of computer models to determine how much snow, ice and rain we’ll get…and then we have to think about timing and who will get what.  The best graphical representation of what I feel will play out Tuesday/Wednesday morning is with the RPM model.  I’ll go through some key times for you…starting at 10pm this evening.

This evening will be dry with cloudy skies, so if you have any evening plans…go for it! Looks good!

 The first flakes likely won’t fly until well after midnight.  In fact, as of 7pm, the batch of moisture we are watching is still in the Virginias.  Temperatures will be falling with a northerly wind this evening….as I write this, we have 31° in Glocester and 34° at North Central Airport in Smithfield.  The temperatures in Northern Rhode Island will likely be below freezing once the precip starts.  However, remember that January thaw we just had?  The ground is still pretty warm and initially, the snow may not accumulate.  Eventually, it will.  In southern Rhode Island, temps will likely be above freezing.  Although it could be snowing initially, it won’t likely stick to the ground at the coast at any point during this storm. 

By 6am, the snow should have overspread most of the region and some mixing of sleet/rain is likely at the south coast.  That transition of snow to sleet and freezing rain should continue to work its way northward through the morning commute.  Expect slushy conditions on the roads as snow mixes with the rain.  By 8am….

It looks like the rain/snow line could be moving into Providence around 8am.  With an inch or two of snow on the roads already, this will likely create some slushy conditions.  Expect a slower morning commute on Wednesday….allow yourself a little extra time.  Notice at 8am, the snow is still falling in northern Rhode Island.  Another hour or two of accumulating snow is possible up there before a changeover to rain.

 At noon, the temperatures at ground-level and upper-levels will have warmed enough that a change-over to rain is possible as far north as the RI/MA border.  It is still possible that some freezing rain could be falling in pockets at this time.  Elsewhere, a light rain or drizzle is expected and that will continue for a little while into the afternoon before ending.

The evening commute will likely feature dry skies but the roadways could still be wet and temperatures will be falling, so some icing is likely.

Total accumulations? Generally 2-4″ north and west of Providence.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see a pocket of 5″ amounts in the hilly areas of Burrillville and Foster Glocester.  Ice and rain should keep the accumulations low in the Providence Metro area, but again the morning commute will feature snow, ice and rain. At the coast, I’m not expecting any accumulations at all.

Another round of model data starts coming in around 9pm….be sure to follow me on Twitter @tjdelsanto and Facebook for updates.

-T.J. Del Santo

So, I’m waiting around for the latest round of computer model data to come in…I was really interested to see if I needed to increase my forecasted snow totals for Tuesday night/Wednesday.  Then, my mind wandered to wondering about how much snow we’ve gotten so far this season and where we stand compared to normal.  Thennnnn…I wondered where this season stands compared to recent seasons.  I expected to not see much from last year and a lot from the year before that.  But, putting the 5 seasons on a graph was an interesting exercise.   I calculated the snow accumulations up to January 14th for each season.   Here’s what I found:

The snow accumulations through January 14th for each of the last five winter seasons for T.F. Green Airport.

What this shows is December’s and early January’s were very busy snow-making months for a few years.  Approximately two feet of snow had fallen for three consecutive years to this point.  Then, of course, there was last year when we were snow-starved for the entire winter.  You’ll notice that this year, we have 11″ of snow to date.  That is about 3″ below normal….but a LOT closer to normal compared to the last 4 years.

Looking ahead, the weather is only going to get colder for the rest of the month,  and more than likely the snow will pile up at some point. 

I asked myself about what this graph really means.  I’m not really sure.  It’s likely too small of a sample to read anything into it, but it likely correlates to large scale weather patterns.  I’ll have to look into it more.  For now, it’s interesting.

-T.J. Del Santo

That’s a typical headline for Southern New England.  As Mark Twain put it, “if you don’t like the weather in New England, wait 5 minutes and it will change”.  That’s the truth!

While Monday’s warmth wasn’t a record breaker, it was a nice treat! The spring-like temperatures are gone for now, however.  In fact, Monday night/Tuesday morning will feature some sleet mixing in with the rain.  That should clear by 7-8am on Tuesday.

A more important storm will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday.  The computer models have been fairly consistent during the last day and a half about some type of precipitation Tue night/Wed.  One computer model (GFS) continues to show more in the way of rain than snow. The others we look at (NAM, RPM, European and Canadian) show more in the way of frozen precipitation. 

Timing
The snow should begin to overspread the area around midnight and become fairly steady during the morning commute.   Most areas should be seeing some snow, but coastal communities may see many hours of sleet and rain, especially during the day on Wednesday.

How Much?
Right now, it looks like generally 2-4″ of snow will fall north and west of Providence, with lesser amounts toward the coast.  See the accumulation map below

Be sure to check back with Pete.  He will be in on Tuesday morning and at noon. I’ll be back in on Tuesday night with the latest information.

-T.J. Del Santo

Here we are with one more quarter left to play in this AFC Divisional showdown. The Patriots have a comfortable 31-13 lead over the Texans thanks to a versatile offensive attack. Tom Brady is having a solid game so far, completing 22 of 35 passes for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns to RB Shane Vereen and WR Brandon Lloyd. Their two rushing touchdowns came from Vereen and RB Stevan Ridley, and it seems as though Houston is having a hard time stopping this high-powered offense. (UPDATE: Vereen just caught a 33-yard pass from Brady for his third TD of the game. What a stud.)

On the defensive side of things, Pats fans were glad to see Rob Ninkovich back in the lineup, whose third quarter interception derailed a Texans drive. CB Aqib Talib is doing a great job covering the ever-dangerous Andre Johnson.

This year’s severe flu season has been making headlines this week as health officials have warned that this is one of the earliest and worst outbreaks of the flu in a decade.  And even though your mom and grandma will scold you for leaving the house without a winter coat and (gasp!) not wearing a hat… research shows the weather won’t give you the flu.  In fact, scientists say the ONLY way to get the flu is to come in contact with the virus that causes it.

Looking at the latest information from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, high levels of the flu are not just found in northern/colder states right now, like RI and MA… but states like Texas, Florida and Louisiana are all classified by the CDC with high levels of Influenza like illnesses (ILI):

Flu Outbreak by State

The typical flu season runs from around October through April… and probably has more to do with the school calendar than the shorter, colder days.  Research has shown that the flu spreads mostly from school-age children, who often have poorer hygiene and catch the virus because they are in close contact with one another. Then, they pass it along to adults.

The way the weather comes into play is to force people indoors…. more mixing, mingling and spreading of germs.  That brings up the importance of good hygiene—washing hands, disinfecting surfaces, coughing into your elbow, limiting exposure, etc to help prevent the spread of the flu.

Now, my mom would adamantly disagree and swear that not only going outside with a wet head in the winter will condemn you to the flu, but that her homemade chicken soup is as good as Penicillin.  And while she may not have the science to back up her claims, her hot soup always soothes a sore throat and a hat will make it more comfortable to be outside.  Plus, even as an adult, it’s easier to do what she says rather than try to argue with her, especially when it comes to her grandchildren. 

 According to the National Climate Data Center, 2012 was the warmest year on record for the United States, blowing away 1998 by 1°F.  It was also the 15th driest year on record. Another important point in the State of the Climate report, 2012 was the second most extreme weather year on record.  Last year was second only to 1998. 

A tornado in Cherokee, OK

On a local level, Providence had its second warmest year on record.  Six out of the 12 months were in the top 10 warmest months since 1905, when weather records started being kept.  March, alone, was the 3rd warmest on record at TF Green Airport where weather information for Providence is recorded.  However, the big cities surrounding Rhode Island’s capitol had their warmest year on record in 2012:  Boston, Worcester and Hartford.

In the report from the NCDC, the news wasn’t all bad.  Tornado activity was below average and at its lowest in the country since 2002.  Tornadoes need large contrasts in airmasses to form.  The scorching heat and devastating drought in the middle of the country shows the lack of contrasting airmasses in Tornado Alley.  Weather patterns were not favorable for a busy tornado year.  The jet stream, which guides air and storm systems around the globe, stayed too far north for tornadoes to develop in large numbers.

House falling into the water along the Rhode Island coast during Hurricane Sandy

Tropical Activity in the Atlantic was above normal.  Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.  In that time, we had 19 named storms and 10  hurricanes.  Of course Hurricane Sandy, which has gotten the label of a “Superstorm”, struck in late October.   Some look to climate change for Sandy’s unusual path of turning west into New Jersey when typical October storms are guided out to sea.  The loss of sea ice in the Arctic, in some reports, is to blame for the unusual Autumn atmospheric block in the North Atlantic.   

Despite the mild temperatures this week, we’ve had a pretty average start to the year.  I wonder what 2013 will bring. 

-T.J. Del Santo

My son has a birthday on January 21… and he has repeatedly said that he wants and expects it to snow… enough snow to go sledding with his friends down our driveway.  In his little mind, this is what happens on his birthday.  Last season’s ONLY significant snow event in RI fell on January 21, throwing his original 3rd birthday party plans into disarray.  The day instead became a “snowman-making-hot-cocoa-drinking-sledding-with-the-neighbors-party”.   It apparently left quite an impression.  He’s not old enough to comprehend that the mother he sees forecasting the weather on TV every morning doesn’t actually control it.

So as I look at the weather pattern for the coming two weeks, I not only have the job of figuring out when it will return to a colder, stormier pattern, but also if it will happen in time for Charlie’s birthday.

Right now, it looks like the ridge in the jet stream over the eastern US will hold through the middle of next week.

06z GFS 300mb Heights on Wed. Jan 16

Right now, I’m not seeing signs of any significant changes (a cool down) before the middle or maybe even the end of next week.  It does look like cold air over the western half of the nation will start to advance east next week.  So right now, I’d be leaning towards at or above average temperatures through probably the Jan. 17… but maybe a return to a cooler pattern by next weekend.

Temperature Outlook from Jan 15-21

The bottom line is, it’s still too early to say if Charlie will get his birthday wish… but for any snow-lovers looking for  another healthy dumping of snow,  the chances aren’t good over the next 7-10 days.