Tony’s Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s Been Amost 2 Years Since Providence Had a 1 Foot Snow Storm

December 18th, 2014 at 5:34 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s been almost 2 years (about 22 months) since the February Blizzard of 2013.  That blizzard marks the last time that Providence (officially measured at TF Green) received at least one foot of snow from a storm.  Here are some totals from that blizzard courtesy of the National Weather Service:

BARRINGTON  19.5
WEST WARWICK  21.5
WARWICK    20.0
TF GREEN AIRPORT   18.0   
PORTSMOUTH 15.2
WEST GLOCESTER  27.6
CUMBERLAND  27.1
PROVIDENCE  19.5
EAST PROVIDENCE  17.3
WESTERLY  19.5

 

Big southern New England storms after Blizzard of 2013 Have Missed Providence

Southern New England HAS seen some impressive snowstorms over the past 2 years, they just haven’t delivered for Providence.  (While Providence official totals are recorded at TF Green Airport, I also checked actual Providence reports in the the city…these also fell well short of a 1 foot snowstorm).  Here are a few of the notable storms:

March 6-8, 2013

About a month after the blizzard of 2013, a storm pounded parts of eastern Massachusetts with well over a foot of snow.   Fall River was hit with over 17 inches, but TF Green ended up with a wimpy 2.3 inches! Parts of northern Rhode Island did get hit with heavy snow; the northern part of Cumberland got over a foot.  I mapped out a few of the totals…the difference between Fall River and TF Green is impressive given the relatively short distance.

Pete_Snow_Amounts_One

 

 

January 2-3, 2014

Some remember this as the “right after New Years” storm.  I will have to double check this, but I believe this storm was the closest Providence came to picking up a foot.  Here are a few of the totals courtesy of the National Weather Service:

BRISTOL   9.0
COVENTRY  8.5
TF GREEN   7.2
MIDDLETOWN   8.8
PAWTUCKET    11.0
BURRILLVILLE    7.0
CHARLESTOWN    8.0

 

January 21-22, 2014

This storm was a pain because most of it fell from the Tuesday evening commute into early Wednesday morning.  However, Providence once again escaped a major snow storm.  I mapped out a few of the snow totals from this storm; notice how there are larger totals surrounding the Providence metro area.  It’s almost like some kind of snow force field!

 

Snow_2

 

 Despite the lack of the “Big One” in Providence, the winter of 2013-2014 was very active

Last winter brought many small to medium snow storms to the Capital City.  If you remember, we had so many storms that salt shortages became an issue.  TF Green officially recorded 43.6 inches of snow last winter; that is about 10 inches above the normal of 33.9 inches.

 

So WHY did Providence miss out on the big storms

The short answer is, I’m still trying to figure that out.

Part of the answer lies in the geography.  Providence and the coast, on average, get less snow than their neighbors to the north.  Areas along and to the north and west of 295 (Foster, Smithfield…etc) tend to be colder during snow storms; even a few degrees can make the difference between wet snow and accumulating snow.

But this doesn’t explain some of those storms which dumped snow in Fall River and left just a few inches in Providence.  It also doesn’t explain the storm that gave Westerly and Fall River around 10 inches, Glocester a foot, and TF Green only 5.7 inches.  Those high eastern Massachusetts totals are likely the result of the storm proximity…the offshore position of the storm sent the most moisture into Massachusetts, and not as much into Providence.  Some of the higher totals in western and northern Rhode Island may have been the result of upslope (air rising as it moves into higher elevations) or there could have been a smaller separate atmospheric disturbance in western Rhode Island area.

Narragansett Bay could also play a role, as warmer waters just off the bay could limit the TF Green and Providence area totals.

Anyway, these are all just theories, but it certainly shows how forecasting snow is southern New England is no picnic! -Pete Mangione

 


Chances of a White Christmas

December 15th, 2014 at 12:08 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s beginning to feel a lot like Christmas, but it’s not really looking a lot like Christmas.   Southeast New England still has bare ground.  Christmas is fast approaching and there are no snow storms expected this week.  However, our snow storm threat could begin to change next week.

WHAT HISTORY TELLS US

First, here’s a look at the climatological chances of Southern New England getting a White Christmas — a White Christmas being when there is one inch or more of snow on the ground.

White_Christmas_650x366

This is from data collected from 1981 to 2010.  More specifically, Providence has a 37% chance of seeing a White Christmas, while Burrillville has a 48% chance and Newport has a 25% chance of there being one inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning.

Here’s a look at some weather extremes for Christmas Day:

  • Snowiest:  2.8″ (1919)
  • Wettest:  1.68″ (1978)
  • Warmest:  63° (1964)
  • Coldest:  -10° (1980)

LOOKING AHEAD

This week (through Saturday) looks pretty uneventful…especially as far as snow goes.  However, a pattern shift will begin to unfold over the weekend.  A shift in the jet stream will signal better chances for snow the week of December 21st.   For the past couple weeks, the jet stream has been (mostly) flat — more west to east.   Beginning Sunday, the jet stream will be taking bigger dips through the eastern United States.

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Geminid Meteors Peak Saturday Night

December 13th, 2014 at 4:59 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

One of the best meteor showers of the year will peak tonight, and the weather looks like it will mostly cooperate — there may be some clouds to contend with (especially east of Providence).

Geminids_650x366

The Geminids can be seen through the night, but are best seen after 10PM until about 4AM (EST).   We may have to contend with a last quarter moon which will rise in the east at 11:19pm in Rhode Island, but Geminid Meteors are usually very bright.  All you have to do is look up!

Courtesy: NASA

Courtesy: NASA

Note, the sky probably won’t look like the picture above.  Instead, you’ll likely see one meteor every few minutes.  You may see as many as 50 per hour! The picture above is a “photographic stack” of pictures.  What’s interesting to note in the picture is that if you drew a line along the path of each meteor, they all go back to the same part of the sky — the constellation Gemini.

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Geminid Meteor Shower This Weekend…

December 12th, 2014 at 7:09 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

A “Different” kind of shower this weekend…Clouds expected to gradual decrease Saturday evening and night

geminids

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The following is from earthsky.org

The peak night of the 2014 Geminid meteor shower will probably occur on the night of December 13 (morning of December 14).  The night before (December 12-13) may offer a decent sprinkling of meteors as well.  Geminid meteors tend to be few and far between at early evening, but intensify in number as evening deepens into late night.  A last quarter moon will rise around midnight, but Geminid meteors are bright! This shower favors Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, but it’s visible from the Southern Hemisphere, too.

The shower owes its name to the constellation Gemini from where the meteors seem to emerge from in the sky.

Unlike most other meteor showers, the Geminids are associated not with a comet but with an asteroid – the 3200 Phaethon. The asteroid takes about 1.4 years to orbit around the Sun.

The Geminids are considered to be one of the more spectacular meteor shower during a year, with the possibility of sighting around 120 meteors per hour at its peak.

The Geminids can be observed from locations all around the world.

While it is not necessary to look in a particular direction to enjoy a meteor shower – just lay down on the ground and look directly above and you are bound to see some meteors – astronomers suggest looking towards the south to view the Geminids.

The best time to view the Geminids between 9 p.m. (21:00) local time and before dusk.


Wednesday Night Rain/Snow Outlook

December 10th, 2014 at 4:25 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Off/on rain showers will continue late this afternoon through this evening.  Some snow will also try to mix in.  I think we will be able to get through most of the evening commute with just plain old rain showers.  However, after 6 or 7PM, some snow may fall in the western part of the state.  Areas to the west of 295 (such as Foster, West Greenwich, and Burrillville) have the best chance to see this light snow, but some mixing to cold rain and sleet is also possible.

Snow_Pic_GOGOGOGOGOG

After 9 or 10PM, this snow/sleet/rain mix COULD make it into Providence.  As we go past midnight, all of our viewing area has a chance of getting a little wintry mix.

Any Accumulation?For the most part, no.  There could be a coating to half an inch at some of the higher elevations in northern and western Rhode Island, but most of us won’t see any.

What about the  roads? The main area of concern would be along and to the north and west of I-95.  This is where temperatures are likely to get near or below freezing.  While icy spots from light snow are a possibility, of more concern will be any rainwater that freezes on untreated surfaces (sidewalks and side roads).

When will this all come to an end? We don’t completely get rid of the rain/snow showers until late Thursday or Friday, but the threat of snow and slick roads should be over by late Thursday morning.  

 

 


Storm Stalls Over New England through Friday

December 10th, 2014 at 9:13 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The soaking rain and strong winds that made for a miserable day yesterday has moved out, but the storm system responsible for it is still hear.  While it has weakened significantly,  it has stalled over New England and won’t move away until later Friday and early Saturday.  That means our weather will remain unsettled, with damp and dreary conditions through the end of the work week.  Lots of drizzle, mist and scattered showers are expected through the day, with temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Rainfall totals should be less than .25″, so additional flooding is not expected. temp 1

Through the day, colder air will get drawn into the low pressure center, and by this evening and tonight both a mix of rain and snow showers are possible.  Temperatures overnight will fall to near freezing, so a few icy spots are possible by dawn.  temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

Thursday will feature another day with an abundance of clouds and a spotty rain or snow shower around.  By Friday, southern New England looks mainly dry, but still mainly cloudy.

Anxious to see sunshine?  Both Saturday and Sunday look storm free and partly sunny.


Storm Moves Out. All Watches And Advisories Cancelled

December 9th, 2014 at 7:41 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

The worst of Today’s rain and wind storm has moved out…Below is a list of rainfall amounts and peak winds for certain towns and cities

 

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
RAINFALL           OF
/INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

HARTFORD COUNTY
3 SE HARTFORD                     1.81   520 PM 12/09  ASOS
1 WNW WINDSOR LOCKS    1.64   513 PM 12/09  ASOS
WETHERSFIELD                     1.40   236 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO

WINDHAM COUNTY
3 NE WILLIMANTIC          1.17   524 PM 12/09  ASOS

MASSACHUSETTS

BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
HARWICH                       2.64   600 PM 12/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NW CHATHAM           2.38   517 PM 12/09  ASOS
2 NE HYANNIS               2.05   524 PM 12/09  ASOS
EAST FALMOUTH         1.67   302 PM 12/09  CO-OP OBSERVER

BRISTOL COUNTY
FAIRHAVEN                      2.87   408 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
TAUNTON                          2.55   455 PM 12/09  NWS OFFICE
4 ESE TAUNTON              2.40   545 PM 12/09  ASOS
4 W NORTON                    2.10   529 PM 12/09  CO-OP OBSERVER
3 NW NEW BEDFORD    1.67   517 PM 12/09  ASOS

DUKES COUNTY…
3 S VINEYARD HAVEN    2.27   528 PM 12/09  ASOS

ESSEX COUNTY…
TOPSFIELD                       3.29   557 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
5 WNW BEVERLY            3.00   515 PM 12/09  ASOS
BEVERLY                           2.23   559 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
BRADFORD                       2.20   558 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
3 NE LAWRENCE             2.20   525 PM 12/09  ASOS
IPSWICH                            2.10   303 PM 12/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
BOXFORD                          2.09   559 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
LAWRENCE                       2.06   558 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
ROCKPORT                        1.13   302 PM 12/09  MEDIA

FRANKLIN COUNTY
2 SE ORANGE                    1.14   530 PM 12/09  ASOS

HAMPDEN COUNTY…
2 ENE WESTFIELD          1.40   511 PM 12/09  ASOS

MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
BURLINGTON                 2.71   556 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
2 WSW BEDFORD          2.42   514 PM 12/09  ASOS
FRAMINGHAM               2.42   557 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
READING                          2.28   555 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
CAMBRIDGE                    2.24   404 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
CONCORD                         2.20   556 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
MEDFORD                         2.14   405 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
WESTON                            2.03   555 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
WAKEFIELD                     1.55   203 PM 12/09  TRAINED SPOTTER
TEWKSBURY                    1.15   219 PM 12/09  NONE

NANTUCKET COUNTY…
NANTUCKET                     3.01   504 PM 12/09  AMATEUR RADIO
2 ESE NANTUCKET         2.14   505 PM 12/09  ASOS

NORFOLK COUNTY…
3 SSW MILTON                3.05   527 PM 12/09  ASOS
WELLESLEY MA              2.76   258 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
WALPOLE                          2.38   403 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
1 ENE NORWOOD           2.38   532 PM 12/09  ASOS
MILTON                             1.56   329 PM 12/09  TRAINED SPOTTER

PLYMOUTH COUNTY…
PLYMOUTH                     2.44   407 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
4 SW PLYMOUTH          2.10   545 PM 12/09  ASOS

SUFFOLK COUNTY
1 N EAST BOSTON        2.39   509 PM 12/09  ASOS
BOSTON                          2.08   406 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO

WORCESTER COUNTY
3 WNW WORCESTER       1.40   530 PM 12/09  ASOS
4 SE FITCHBURG              1.27   518 PM 12/09  ASOS

RHODE ISLAND

KENT COUNTY
COVENTRY                      3.00   411 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
2 NNW WARWICK         2.61   533 PM 12/09  ASOS

NEWPORT COUNTY
4 NE NEWPORT               1.79   546 PM 12/09  ASOS

PROVIDENCE COUNTY
WEST GLOCESTER          1.53   250 PM 12/09  TRAINED SPOTTER

WASHINGTON COUNTY…
WESTERLY                        2.22   410 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
2 SSE WESTERLY             2.00   547 PM 12/09  ASOS
HOPKINTON                     2.00   245 PM 12/09  NONE

***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
GUST            OF
MPH    MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
FALMOUTH                       61   343 PM 12/09  OTIS AIR FIELD
BARNSTABLE                   52   312 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
EAST FALMOUTH           51   119 PM 12/09  NONE
ORLEANS                           50   156 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
CHATHAM                         50   129 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
WELLFLEET                      48   245 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO

BRISTOL COUNTY…
FAIRHAVEN                      62   258 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO

DUKES COUNTY…
OAK BLUFFS                     49   135 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO

ESSEX COUNTY…
ROCKPORT                         53   302 PM 12/09  MEDIA

PLYMOUTH COUNTY…
SCITUATE                       61   329 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO
MARION                          47   109 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO

SUFFOLK COUNTY…
WINTHROP                     46   316 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO

RHODE ISLAND

WASHINGTON COUNTY…
CHARLESTOWN             50   346 PM 12/09  HAM RADIO

***********************SUSTAINED WIND***********************

LOCATION                 WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
SPEED           OF
MPH    MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

BARNSTABLE COUNTY…
EAST FALMOUTH           36   119 PM 12/09  NONE

ESSEX COUNTY…
ROCKPORT                        32   302 PM 12/09  MEDIA

$$


Storm Update

December 9th, 2014 at 11:19 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 11am, we are seeing moderate to heavy rain across the region.  Radar estimates of rainfall rates are in the range of .10 to .50 inches per hour.

Storm_Radar_650x366

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Heavy, Flooding Rains Expected Today

December 9th, 2014 at 6:42 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

While the morning’s commute featured icing issues, the evening’s commute could feature some lingering flooding issues.

We are expected to see some very heavy rain today.  We’ll see steady rain from 7am through 5pm, but the heaviest will be between 9am until about 4pm.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for Southern New England.  This means that we are watching for the potential for flooding.  In this case, we could be seeing street and poor drainage flooding.  We’ll monitor the rivers and streams, but they should be able to handle this rain.  Once flooding seems imminent or occurring, the Watch will be changed to a Warning.

Daily-Graphic-1_650x366

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Strong Wind Gusts Today

December 9th, 2014 at 5:30 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As an area of low pressure moves northward today, we will be seeing some periods of heavy rain and strong wind gusts.  In this blog post, we’ll take a look at the wind gusts.

Fcst_Map2_650x366

The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for coastal areas of Southern New England for strong wind gusts to 50mph from the east and northeast.

Daily-Graphic-3_650x366

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Icy Morning Commute

December 9th, 2014 at 4:07 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As you can tell by our SkyCam in Providence, it’s a little icy out there this morning.

SKYCAM3_650x366

For inland areas of Southern New England, this could be a tricky morning commute as freezing drizzle has created slick conditions in parts of our area.

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Icy Roads Continue For Several More Hours

December 8th, 2014 at 11:25 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

Winter Weather Advisory Due To Freezing Rain Has Been Extended To Include Washington County RI And Southern  Bristol

County Mass (shaded blue areas).  This Advisory will expire 5am Tuesday.

Meanwhile heavy rain (no ice) and wind moves in Tuesday.

advy 2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Icing causing significant amount of car accidents across Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island Monday Night

The following is an incomplete list. Please note some details may change and need to be confirmed at a later time. MVA stands for ‘Motor Vehicle Accident’..

List of icing/accident reports below from Monday Night as of 11pm

950 PM: Freetown, MA: Route 24 North and Southbound between North Main Street and Route 104 – icy conditions

955 PM: North Smithfield, RI: Route 146 Southbound at West Acres shutdown due to icing

1000 PM: Tiverton, RI: 2 Car MVA on Main Road, very icy road conditions across town

1000 PM: Tolland, CT: I-84 is closed for multiple crashes due to icy roads between exits 67 and 68.

1000 PM: Fall River, MA: Route 24 southbound at exit 25 closed due to ice and car accidents related to ice

1000 PM: Johnston RI: 295 south in the area of exit 5 Rhode Island State Police going out for a report of multiple vehicles involved in a accident

1006 PM: Raynham, MA: 7 car MVA on Route 24 at 495 spread out over 1/4 mile.

1006 PM: Woonsocket/Cumberland RI: Accident – Right lane blocked on 146 Northbound at 146A

1006 PM: Mansfield, MA: I-495 at I-95 reported multiple accidents

1010 PM: Westport, MA: Route I-195 west area of white’s restaurant – mva – vehicle on the side of the median, second accident on the other end of the median. Route 88 reported as slick and icy. multiple other streets reported slick and iced up.

1013 PM: Hingham, MA: car into a tree Route 3 Northbound – Exit 14, Route 3 very icy.

1016 PM: Somerset/Fall River, MA: I-195 Eastbound at Exit 4 over the bridge and I-195 access at the bottom of Columbia Street closed due to icing

1021 PM: Providence, RI: Accident, Right lane of exit ramp blocked on I-95 southbound at Exit 22B US 6 West

1023 PM: Westport, MA: I-195 Westbound at Route 88 – rollover with possible entrapment of occupant

1025 PM: East Providence, RI: Car Accident – Right lane of exit ramp blocked on East Shore Expressway southbound at I-195

1026 PM: Fall River, MA: Braga and Veterans Memorial Bridges closed due to icing

1029 PM: Westport, MA: Old Bedford Road – icing, accidents reported. several overpasses very slick and icy.

1033 PM: I-495 Northbound Exit 6, several cars spun out, some cars moving on their own others being towed.

1037 PM: Swansea, MA: Car spun out hit gaurd rail on I-195 Eastbound

1038 PM: Fall River, MA: Route 24 Northbound at exit 8A, male struck by a vehicle after getting out of his car that spun off the road.

1044 PM: Fall River, MA: Route 6 rotary prior to 24 north mva in Fall River

1044 PM: Westport, MA: I-195 West prior to Route 24 North, MVA

1047 PM: Johnston, RI: MVA car versus tree with entrapment 2643 Hartford

1051 PM: Bridgewater, MA: Route 24 southbound – milemarker 25.8, car spun out in the road.

1054 PM: Bridgewater, MA: Route 24 MVA 20 cars due to icing

 

Accident Data provided by

Rob Macedo (KD1CY)

ARES SKYWARN Coordinator for NWS Taunton Massachusetts


Pockets Of Freezing Drizzle Tonight. Heavy Rain, Wind Tuesday.

December 8th, 2014 at 6:42 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from Chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

While we are still expecting a mild rain and wind storm Tuesday…cold air Tonight will be slow to leave in areas away from the coast. Right now, we have a damp east-northeast wind bringing in moisture off the ocean in the form of flurries, mist and drizzle. As the cold drizzle falls into air that is still very cold near ground, some light glazing of ice is possible. The map below shows where Winter Weather Advisories are in place (blue shading) for Tonight. By early Tuesday morning these cold inland locations will warm well above freezing..

 

Winter Wx Advy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile the main coastal storm  will approach early Tuesday morning with heavy rain (no icing) and strong coastal winds.  A High Wind Advisory is in effect for south shore with gust potential up to 50 mph.  A High Wind Watch (pink shading) is in effect for  Cape, Islands, including Block Island. Winds here may gusts to 60 mph.

 

windy advy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The storm time table for Tuesday looks something like  this…..

 

time line

 

..


Another Rain and Wind Storm on the Way for Tuesday

December 8th, 2014 at 7:33 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Despite the very cold air greeting us on this Monday morning, we’re tracking a storm system for Tuesday that will bring a soaking rain and gusty winds to our area.  Most of southern New England is now under a FLOOD WATCH.  The coast is also under a HIGH WIND WATCH, for gusts up to 50mph leading to isolated power outages.  temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)

temp 3

A storm will ride up the Mid-Atlantic coast, tracking over southern New England through the day.  It’s a set-up that will bring rain to most of southern New England… the exception will be the potential for heavy, wet snow in far western and northern MA.  While the heaviest rain will end Tuesday evening in RI and southeastern MA, the storm stalls over northern New England bringing additional lighter showers to our area through Wednesday and Thursday.temp 2

TIMING: 

6-9am: Steady rain moves in

10am-5pm:  Heaviest rain and strongest wind

7pm Tuesday through Wednesday: Lingering lighter rain showers

 

IMPACTS:

Localized street flooding in the afternoon and evening

Isolated wind damage and power outages near the coast.


Windy and Cold Sunday Ahead

December 6th, 2014 at 7:19 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A frontal system will be pushing through the Northeast tonight.  With it, we’ll see periods of rain, some of which could be heavy.  Expect rain to continue through the night, ending before dawn on Sunday.

Fcst_Map2_650x366

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Orion: A Huge Leap in Space Travel

December 5th, 2014 at 1:12 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

After several delays and an eventual scrubbed launch on Thursday, the Orion Spacecraft was once again prepared for a launch on Friday morning. orion_1

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Done: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

December 1st, 2014 at 10:46 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season is done.  Complete. Fini!  Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.  As expected, this hurricane season had below average activity.

2014_Hurricanes_650x366

There were eight storms given names, four storms below average.  Six of those storms formed into hurricanes (with winds of 74mph or greater)….the average is 6.4 hurricanes per season.  Of those six hurricanes, two became major hurricanes with winds of 111mph or greater.  The average is 2.7 major hurricanes per hurricane season.  In the list of names, we got to the ‘H’ storm, Hanna.

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New Month, New Season

December 1st, 2014 at 9:41 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Welcome to Meteorological Winter! November, 2014 is in the books and with the start of December comes the beginning of Meteorological Winter.   To make data more manageable, meteorologists break seasons up by months as opposed to astronomical alignments.   It will officially be winter on December 21st.

November was a cool, rainy and a little bit snowy month in Rhode Island.

November_650x366

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Mild End To November, Start to December

November 30th, 2014 at 9:11 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The last day of November and first day of December will be mild with temperatures in the 50s.  This milder weather will stick around ahead of a cold front that will knock us back to reality by late Monday night into Tuesday.  In the meantime, here is what this pattern will do to our Sunday afternoon weather planner….

Blog_1_Warm

This warm pattern will not only make for mild afternoons, but also mild overnights and mornings.  Check out the forecast for the Monday morning drive to work…not a bad way to start the week!

Blog_2_Warm

 

 

Tuesday high temperatures will be back to the 30s despite the sun, then we will have to keep our eye on late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  A brief wintry mix may create a few slick spots during this time.  The mix should change over to plain rain for the rest of the day…but stay tuned for updates.  Have a great weekend! -Pete Mangione


Some Light Snow for Overnight Shoppers

November 27th, 2014 at 11:21 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data coming in the evening favors light snow overnight and very little in the way of accumulation.  So far this evening, we have been getting reports of about a coating to 1 inch of snow (primarily on car tops and the grass).

Periods of light snow will continue overnight….they will be more frequent in Bristol County Mass and less frequent in western Rhode Island.   By Friday morning, most locations will be at a  coating to 1 inch of snow (that takes into account what was already on the ground Thursday night).  For areas east of Fall River and Taunton Mass, a coasting to 2 inches is possible.  Up near Boston, 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible.  The bottom line? You will want to use caution on slick spots early tomorrow morning for shopping, but the snow will have little impact on most of our viewing area.   Here is an updated map, hope you find some good deals Friday! -Pete Mangione

New_Snow_Go


Light Snow Expected: Forecast Update

November 27th, 2014 at 6:32 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Light snow (which will start as a little rain) at the coast will move through off/on through the overnight hours.  Most of us will get about a coating…but a few spots could get around an inch.  East of Fall River, 2 inch (or slightly higher) amounts are possible by early Friday morning. Some isolated 1 or 2 inch amounts are also possible north and west of 295 in Rhode Island and Bristol County Mass.

As most of our temperatures get below freezing tonight, use caution on the roads.   Even areas that only get a coating could have some icy spots.  Here is an updated accumulation map that is valid by Friday morning.  For that circled area in northern RI, the 2 inch amounts would be isolated….most of us would be closer to a coating or an inch.  Happy Thanksgiving! – Pete Mangione

PETENEWSNOW


A Little Snow Tonight into Friday AM

November 27th, 2014 at 4:36 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

This will be very brief as I am getting ready for the 5PM newscast.  Some light snow will move in this evening through early Friday AM.  Most of us will end up with nothing to a dusting of snow.  Areas east of Fall River could end up with 1-2″.  Even in areas that only get a coating, please use caution on the roads.  It will be cold enough where some snow/ice could stick on untreated surfaces and roads.  Here is an early look at the accumulation forecast…I will have more information on the air at 5PM on WPRI 12.

Pete_Blogff


Not a lot of snow, but plenty of travel headaches

November 26th, 2014 at 5:20 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Most snowfall totals have been confined north and west of I-95.  The amounts have been limited…between about a coating and an inch.  However, freezing rain, sleet, and plain old rain have been creating a mess out on the roads.  Numerous accidents have been reported in northwestern RI.  Here is what you can expect for the rest of the evening:

Through 10PM: Mostly rain, although north and west of I-95 may mix to sleet at times.  It will be windy with gusts of 35 mph possible….gusts closer to 50 mph are possible from the south coast to Cape Cod.

10PM to 4Am Thursday: Rain and sleet will change back to a final burst of snow.  Accumulations will be limited with the final burst….you might be able to pick up 1 or 2 inches north and west of 295.  Winds will also stay strong gusting between 30-35 mph.

By early Thursday morning, most of us will have a coating to no snow accumulation at all.  North and west of 295: 1″-3″ are possible…but most of you will be on the lower end of that range.

Futurecast_2

 Thursday (Thanksgiving Day): Most of the day will be fine, but watch for some icy spots on the roads early in the morning.  Moisture from the rain/snow overnight may freeze.
Happy Thanksgiving! – Pete Mangione


A Messy Mixed Bag

November 26th, 2014 at 2:48 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

While the south coast has stayed all rain, the rest of us have seen a mix of rain, sleet, snow, and even freezing rain.  Many people have reported pellets coming down at times.  Even though snow can make roads slick, its the freezing rain that could be the biggest threat on the roads this afternoon.  Please use caution….freezing rain is much harder to spot on the roads than snow!

Now to 5PM: The messy wintry mix will continue along and north and west of I-95.  Providence will favor more rain….while areas north and west of 295 will favor a wintry mix.

5 to 10PM: Rain will continue, heavy at times.  Even areas which have received a wintry mix, you will likely go back over to plain old rain.  North and west of 295, you may hang onto a sleet/rain mix.

Futurecast_1

 

10PM Tonight to 5AM Friday: Rain/sleet will go back to one final burst of snow…an inch or 2 additional accumulation is possible.  Travel carefully and Happy Thanksgiving! – Pete Mangione

 

Futurecast_2

 


Rain Moves in this Morning, Storm Update

November 26th, 2014 at 7:38 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The overnight computer models have been leaning towards a storm track further west–this track, closer to the coast, is a “warmer” scenario for our area, meaning mostly a cold, windswept rain for RI and Southeastern MA.   Therefore, I’ve adjusted the accumulation amounts.  Areas north and west of Providence will have the rain mix with wet snow/sleet at times this afternoon. Later this evening/tonight rain will change to a period of snow across the rest of RI, but little to no accumulation expected for most of our area. temp 1

 

temp 2 (mmuscatello v1)The leading edge of rainfall from our coastal storm is moving into Rhode Island early this morning… with temperatures holding in the 40s through the night, it is warm enough that “just rain” will fall.  temp 3

The wind advisory area now includes southern RI and southern Bristol County in MA.  Areas south of Providence will see some wind gusts to 40-50mph this afternoon and early tonight.  Isolated power outages and isolated wind damage possible.  temp 3


Wednesday Storm Update..

November 25th, 2014 at 6:59 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Coastal Storm Wednesday is very “location dependent” . Some areas its mostly rain and wind….other locations colder with mostly snow.

Click here for detailed video forecast

 STORM TIME LINE

timeline

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

winter storm warning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SNOW AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT (MOST NORTHWEST, LESS SOUTHEAST, NOTHING AT COAST)

new accumulations

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 HIGH WINDS AT COAST

winds advy


Rain, Snow, Wind Makes Travel Difficult Wednesday

November 25th, 2014 at 8:53 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’re continuing to track the development of an east coast storm that will create difficult travel conditions from DC to New England on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  As is often the case with early season winter storms…. a variety of precipitation types are expected across Rhode Island and Southeastern MA, making the accumulation forecast challenging.

NEW TODAY: 

WINTER STORM WATCH has been expanded to include western Kent County, RI.  Watch means there is the potential for 6″ or more of snow.  Winter Storm Warning now for western MA, NW CT.  temp 1

HIGH WIND WATCH issued for Block Island and the eastern MA coast, including the Cape and Islands.  Northerly winds late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday night could gusts to 60mph. Isolated wind damage and power outages are possible. temp 1

TIMING THE STORM

8am: Rain Overspreading the Area

2PM-10PM  Height of the storm–Heavy Rain/Wet Snow, Strong north-northeast winds

Overnight:  Storm moves out… snow tapers off to a few lingering flurries/sprinkles by morning.

TRAVEL CONDITIONS:

WED. MORNING:  OK–rain moves in and quickly turns steady.  Roadways are “wet”, temperatures in the upper 30s.

WED. AFTERNOON:  Iffy—Rain/snow mix—rain near the coast.  Snowfall could be turning heavy, mainly for northwest RI where snow will start to accumulate by late afternoon.  Near the coast, heavy rain and gusty winds will continue

WED. EVENING:  Poor–snow, wind and rain will be coming down heavy with roadways becoming snow-c0vered and slick and the visibility will be poor at times.

THURSDAY:  Good–Watch for some slick spots early morning with temperatures below freezing, otherwise the day looks dry, chilly and good for heading to Grandma’s.

AMOUNTS:

Our accumulation forecast remains essentially the same from yesterday evening.  Little to no snowfall accumulation near the coast;  1-3″ for areas away from the shore with the highest amounts of 3-6″ expected north and west of I-295.  As Tony mentioned last night there will be a rain/snow line that sets up over southern New England, representing the boundary between snow to the north and rain to the south and east.  That line will likely fluctuate over central RI and Bristol County MA through the afternoon.  The exact track and intensity of the storm will help determine where that line sets up…. accumulation amounts may still need to be adjusted over the next 24 hours, so please check back for updates.

temp 3


Dry Mild Tuesday, Rain To Snow Wednesday

November 24th, 2014 at 8:15 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

Dry mild weather returns Tuesday before our next storm arrives Wednesday. The exact track of a coastal low will determine amounts of both rain and snow and more importantly the rain snow line.  At this point the precipitation will start as all rain early Wednesday morning. A mix, and then change to wet snow will occur during afternoon and evening hours…first in the higher elevations northwest of Providence, then later points south and east of Providence by early Wednesday evening.  The best chances of accumulating snow will coincide with location of colder temperatures both near the ground and within a few 1000 feet of atmosphere above. Even with the storm still 36 hours out, there is still a high degree of uncertainty with the snow accumulation forecast.  Check back with us later Tonight and Tuesday to forecast revisions to both snow and rain amounts.  Meanwhile, travel now thru Tuesday night looks OK. New computer model data comes in later this evening…we will have an update on our 10pm news on Fox Providence and 11pm news on WPRI channel 12.

 

amounts1


Rain and Snow with Wednesday Storm

November 24th, 2014 at 9:18 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The ingredients are coming together for a disruptive coastal storm impacting the East Coast on the busiest travel day of the year. It’s a storm system that could lead to delays from Florida to New England as low pressure tracks up the east coast.   For New England, the exact track of the storm will determine “how much” and “who” sees snow (vs rain).  As of this morning, we have the highest confidence in a plow-able snow across interior CT into Central and Western MA.  That’s were a “Winter Storm Watch” has been issued.  A “Watch” means there is the potential for 6″ or more of snow.  temp 3

There are still some details to be worked out… however, a “miss” is looking unlikely at this point, so people with plans to travel on Wednesday are urged to stay up to date with the forecast.

TIMING:  Rain will start to move into DC by 7am,  and reach the southern New England coast by 10am, with steadier and heavier rain and snow by early afternoon.  Travel conditions in and around New England should be “ok”-though not perfect in the morning and early afternoon and deteriorate after 3pm.   The height of the storm in New England is from 7pm the evening until 5am Thanksgiving morning.  There may be some lingering lighter snow showers on Thanksgiving morning, but the worst will be over.

temp 1

06z GFS Valid at 1pm Thursday 

PRECIPITATION TYPE:  Very tricky with this storm.  Again, the highest confidence of mainly snow will be in western MA and CT, through interior parts of PA/NY, VT and NH.  Across southeastern New England a combination of rain/snow and sleet looks likely with some accumulations possible. temp 2

Near the RI coast east to Cape Cod and the Island, it looks like the precipitation will fall mainly as rain, with little to no accumulations possible.  Subtle shifts in the track will bring more or less snow into our area.  As of this morning, there were still a lot of uncertainties with the track, so it’s too early to say how much snow will fall.  Areas north and west of I-295 have the best shot at enough snow to plow and shovel.

WIND:  Wind will also be an issue with this storm with strengthening northeast and north winds through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Gusts over 35mph are possible and a high wind advisory or warning may be issued.

Please continue to check back in for updates.


Gusty Winds Continue, Rain Tapers off by Mid-Day

November 24th, 2014 at 8:39 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Another Monday morning dealing with wind swept rain and a slow commute.  This time,  it’s a warm front to blame.  Rain has been falling moderate to heavy at times through the morning with 0.5″ to 1″ of rain possible by the time it tapers off around mid-day.  In addition, Rhode Island and southeastern MA has had southerly winds sustained around 15-25mph with gusts up to 45mph.  Wind_Advisory_650x366

It will stay blustery through the afternoon, with just a few lingering lighter showers and mist for the trip home from school and work.  Temperatures are very mild through the day… in the 50°s this morning and 60°s this afternoon.  The record for today is 73° from 1979.  temp 1

Winds will stay blustery through Tuesday, with mild temperatures (near 60° at lunchtime) and then starting to cool through the late afternoon and night.  Much colder air moves in just in time for a coastal storm to impact the East Coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Check out the latest blogs for more on the forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night.