Tony’s Pinpoint Weather Blog

Storm Will Stall Offshore This Week.

October 20th, 2014 at 6:59 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

It still looks like various “elements”  in the atmosphere will come together  to produce a storm off the New England coast. Storm will stall for roughly a 2-3 day period, bringing a long stretch of rain and some gusty winds.  Right now I’m tracking a weak storm moving  across the upper Great Lakes.  As it moves  into Upstate New York,  a new storm will form off the coast and become the primary weather system next several days. (See Map Below). 

 

noreastr

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RAIN FALL AMOUNTS:  1-3 INCHES  EXPECTED OVER THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME

WINDS:  GUSTY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UP TO 30-35 MPH ALONG THE SHORE

IMPROVEMENTS:  GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS  BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MUCH NICER THIS WEEKEND.

 

5 Day Rainfall Totals Now Thru Friday Shows 1-3 Inches Southern New England, Much Higher New Hampshire/Maine.

rain totals 5 days


Stalled Storm to Bring Stretch of Unsettled Weather

October 20th, 2014 at 11:55 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It was the coldest morning since last April for much of southern New England with overnight lows falling into the uppers 20s and 30s.  Here’s a look at the low temperatures:

temp 1

The cold dry air that’s in place now, will give way to increasing clouds and moisture as an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes redevelops into an ocean storm that will hug the New England coast as it stalls just off-shore for the next three to four days.  Periods of rain will combine with some gusty winds to make for a gray, damp and dreary stretch of weather.  Based on the latest information, rainfall totals could reach 1-2″ in Rhode Island by the time the storm pulls away on Friday.  temp 1At this point, the storm does not look too severe for our area…. with the heaviest rain, strongest winds and potential coastal flooding hitting further north, but we’ll have to carefully watch as the storm takes shape these next few days.  A shift in the position of the storm could mean more rain and wind here.

The first rain showers are slated to move in late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

temp 1

And the steadiest of the rain could be late Wednesday into Thursday.  Some slow improvements are possible on Friday as the storm drifts further away.


Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning Tonight

October 19th, 2014 at 9:03 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As TJ mentioned in his previous blog post, some spots may see a hard freeze tonight.  The watches he mentioned have now turned into advisories and warnings; this means that we are becoming confident in these cold conditions actually occurring.

This will likely be the coolest night of the season with temperatures near or below freezing in some areas.  Here are the low temperatures expected overnight:

Pete_Blog_Freeze_Go

Notice the upper 20s in eastern Connecticut; I would not be surprised if some spots in Rhode Island and Bristol County Massachusetts also sneak into the upper 20s.

A FROST ADVISORY is in effect for Providence, the East Bay, the West Bay, and Newport County RI.  For all inland areas away from Narragansett Bay, a FREEZE WARNING is in effect.   Basically, if you are still trying to grow something, you are going to want to bring it inside or protect it.

Have a great Sunday and bring the jacket; this afternoon it will be windy with temperatures only in the mid 50s! -Pete Mangione

 


Freeze Watch Sunday Night – Monday Morning

October 18th, 2014 at 11:01 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

What will likely be the coldest air of the season, so far, will move into Southern New England Sunday into Monday.

Strong northwest winds will usher in this cold beginning Sunday morning.  Temperatures on Sunday will be 15-20° colder than on Saturday when highs were around 71.  We’ll probably see more in the way of sunshine Sunday afternoon, but it will be ineffective sun as temperatures won’t budge much.

Sun_Afternoon_650x366

Northwest winds will be gusting as high as 30mph in the afternoon, and wind chills will be dipping into the 40s.  Those winds are expected to quiet down on Sunday night, and the temperatures will be begin to nose dive into the low to mid 30s by dawn on Monday….even in Providence!

rpm_temps_650x366

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Three Questions about the Thursday Forecast

October 16th, 2014 at 3:05 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Rain has moved through with varying intensities this morning and early this afternoon.  As of mid-afternoon, TF Green has picked up about 0.50″ of rain and Smithfield is at 0.77″.   Eastern Connecticut was hit with a lot of rain this morning with total of around 2.30″ (Willimantic, CT).  Although we are under a Flash Flood Watch through this evening, it appears we have been able to avoid major flooding so far.

Here are three questions that you may have about the rest of the day and night:

How Much Total Rain?

Taking into account what has already hit the ground, I would expect most of us to end up close to the 1 inch mark.   Some areas may not quite make it to 1″, and other areas could get a little more.  In western RI, it’s possible there are some isolated areas that get closer to 2″.

What is the Evening Commute going to be like?

A lot of the rain may be pulling out around this time, but I would still expect a slow commute as the rain may not be completely turned off yet.  Areas west of I-95 may be left with just light off/on rain so the commute may not be as slow.  However, areas east of I-95 may still be dealing with showers and downpours which could slow things down. I think our Futurecast map showing the 5PM forecast does a pretty good job.

Pete_Blog_One

 

What about the Pats/Jets game?

Bring the raincoat or poncho if you are going to the game.  There will likely be rain (some of it heavy) for tailgating, but most of the rain should be over by kickoff.  That being said, some occasional showers are possible through out the game.  At least it won’t be that cold as temperatures should stay in the low to mid 60s for most of the game.

Pete_Blog_2

I would say the main hazard for the rest of the day will be hydroplaning….so drive with caution.  Have a great day and enjoy the game! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 


Rainy Day Underway

October 16th, 2014 at 9:10 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A slow moving cold front is combining with unusually muggy air to create some downpours and isolated thunderstorms for today.  Rain has be filling in this morning and additional periods of rain will be likely into the evening.  Our computer models continue to hint at 1″ of rain or more for most of our area, with amounts to 2″ possible for some, especially in any thunderstorms.  temp 2

While severe weather is not expected, isolated wind gusts over 30mph could bring down a few tree limbs or branches. It looks like the main issue, will be trying to drive through the downpours as localized street and poor drainage flooding is possible. It will be a “warm” rain for October standards with temperatures 68-73 through the day.

Rain continues through at least early evening, so if you are headed to the Patriots game at Gillette tonight, plan on wet conditions for tailgating with temperatures in the 60s.  There may still be some leftover showers at the start of the game, but latest data now shows the bulk of the rain falling BEFORE 8pm.  temp 3

 


Gonzola Now A Major Storm. Hurricane Watch For Bermuda.

October 14th, 2014 at 11:41 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

Hurricane Gonzola continues to intensify rapidy with winds as of 11pm Tuesday at 125 mph. While the storm is not expected to make landfall on the US mainland, surf, swells and rip currents will increase along the coast by Thursday and Friday this week…

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM
———————————————–
LOCATION…22.2N 66.6W
ABOUT 705 MI…1135 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…125 MPH…205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…954 MB…28.17 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 66.6 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH…20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY LATE THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH…205
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  GONZALO IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO…FOLLOWED BY
SOME WEAKENING AFTER THAT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES…185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB…28.17 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF…SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THESE SWELLS WILL REACH THE
BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES BY THURSDAY.  SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

gonzy now 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast Track …

Gozy Track


New Hurricane Forms In The Atlantic

October 13th, 2014 at 6:14 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

GONZALO BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY…

SUMMARY 5 PM
LOCATION…17.9N 62.9W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM SE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI…230 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* ANGUILLA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

Gonzalo now

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gonzalo track


Damp start to weekend, but it gets better

October 11th, 2014 at 8:41 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Take the umbrella if you have plans to be out this morning or early afternoon.  Here is a timeline of what to expect:

9AM to 1PM: This is when the steadiest of the rain should be moving through.  The rain will fall at light to moderate rates which should make driving slow but passable.  A few heavy batches of rain are possible.  Although some puddles will be out there on the roads, we are not anticipating widespread street flooding.

PeteFutureGo

1PM to 5PM: For areas north and west of I-95, the rain will be wrapping up.  For areas south and east of I-95, the rain may linger until the later part of this time period.  For Providence, you should be somewhere in the middle with the steadiest of the rain wrapping up by 2PM or 3PM.

5PM to 8PM:  Some lingering light rain or drizzle is still possible, but plenty of rain free time too.  Bring your jacket if you are heading to the Flames of Hope WaterFire; temperatures will be around 50° at 6PM (around the time of the lighting), but then drop into the mid 40s by 11PM.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy with highs in the 60s.  If you are heading to the Columbus Day Parade on Federal Hill or the Scituate Arts Festival, bring the jacket or sweatshirt.  You will want this for times when you are hanging out in the shade or during the times where a cloud happens to be blocking out the sun.

Enjoy the weekend! -Pete Mangione

 


Sub-Tropical Storm Fay Forms In Atlantic

October 10th, 2014 at 6:59 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca:

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY…

SUMMARY OF 6 PM EST
LOCATION…24.7N 64.2W
ABOUT 525 MI…845 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

 Satellite Photo Of  Fay

fay

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

fay2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fay’s Forecast Track Keeps Storm Away From US Mainland

yay track


Storm Damage This Morning In Western Mass. From A Microburst.

October 8th, 2014 at 6:45 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning between 4am and 8am. Fortunately not severe in Rhode Island, but some were powerful in western Massachusetts. The small town of Easthampton, Mass. had a violent storm pass thru around 4:43am…the damage looked like a tornado, but it was a confirmed “Microburst”.  Unlike the twisting winds of a tornado, a microburst produces straight, linear winds, which can be as strong as a tornado. Wind speed were estimated to be 100 mph in Easthampton, creating widespread tree and powerline damage, A few homes had damage too. Storms in Rhode Island and Southeast Mass. stayed just below severe criteria.

 

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Damage photo from early this morning…winds estimated at 100 miles..just 45 miles from Rhode Island border.

Western Mass Storm Damage

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA  
434 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014  
 
…MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ CONFIRMED NEAR  
EASTHAMPTON IN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY MA…  
 
LOCATION…EASTHAMPTON IN HAMPSHIRE COUNTY MA  
DATE…OCTOBER 8 2014  
ESTIMATED TIME…453 AM EDT  
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED…100 MPH  
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH…0.25 MILE  
PATH LENGTH…1 MILE  
BEGINNING LAT/LON…42.25N / 72.65W  
ENDING LAT/LON…42.25N / 72.65W  
* FATALITIES…0  
* INJURIES…0  
 
* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO  
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN  
NWS STORM DATA.  
   
..SUMMARY
 

 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MA HAS CONFIRMED A  
MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ IN EASTHAMPTON IN  
HAMPSHIRE COUNTY MA ON OCTOBER 8 2014.  
 
A THUNDERSTORM THAT PUSHED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL HAMPSHIRE COUNTY  
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DROPPED A STRONG MICROBURST IN EASTHAMPTON  
NEAR THE HOLYOKE LINE. THE MICROBURST BEGAN AT ABOUT 453 AM ON THE  
WEST SIDE OF MOUNT TOM…AND MOVED FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-  
NORTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE RANGE. DUE TO ITS LOCATION ALONG  
THE RANGE…WIND SPEEDS WERE INCREASED WHICH CAUSED A LARGE SWATH  
OF TREES TO EITHER BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. A LARGE AMOUNT OF TREES  
COVERED ROUTE 141/MOUNTAIN ROAD…TRAPPING A FEW CARS ON THE   
ROADWAY.   
 
MOUNTAIN ROAD REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO THE NUMBER OF TREES DOWN ON THE  
ROADWAY. THE MAYOR OF EASTHAMPTON DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR  
THE CITY.  
 
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED THIS EVENING IF MORE INFORMATION  
BECOMES AVAILABLE.  
 
THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT  
WEATHER.GOV/BOX.  
 
FOR REFERENCE…A MICROBURST IS A CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT WITH AN  
AFFECTED OUTFLOW AREA OF LESS THAN 2 1/2 MILES WIDE AND PEAK  
WINDS LASTING LESS THAN 5 MINUTES. MICROBURSTS MAY INDUCE  
DANGEROUS HORIZONTAL/VERTICAL WIND SHEARS…WHICH CAN ADVERSELY  
AFFECT AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE AND CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. STRAIGHT-  
LINE WINDS ARE GENERALLY ANY WIND THAT IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH  
ROTATION…USED MAINLY TO DIFFERENTIATE THEM FROM TORNADIC WINDS.  
  


Storms End this Morning

October 8th, 2014 at 7:29 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s been a busy morning tracking some scattered strong storms over southern New England this morning.  They’ve had a history of heavy rain and frequent lightning along with gusty winds.  In our area, the most intense storm moved across New Bedford and Plymouth around 6:30am this morning, and even had some weak rotation noted on radar.

Radar from 6:25am Wed, 10/8

Radar from 6:25am Wed, 10/8

There was a line of severe thunderstorms that moved through parts of western MA and northern CT causing numerous reports of wind damage, including downed trees and power outages.  Winds greater than 50mph reported.  temp 3

Luckily though, there were no “severe” storms in our area.  And the threat of additional severe storms is quickly winding down.  Additional scattered showers, isolated thunder is possible through 9am before skies becoming sunny and dry across the area.  Plan on a warm afternoon with temperatures in the low and mid 70s.  temp 2

 


Update #3: Strong Thunderstorms Early Wednesday Morning…

October 7th, 2014 at 7:16 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca.

Still looks like all the ingrediants coming together for a heavy showers and strong thunderstorms early Wednesday morning.  The maps below are generated by high resolution, very detailed computer models called HRRR and RPM.  Both still show narrow lines of  orange and deep red colors, indicating thin lines of strong thunderstorms.  The concern is for “some” storms to bring damaging wind gusts.  The other concern (though chances are very small) is for a brief weak tornado or water spout.  The time table still looks like 5am to 9am before the sun comes out by noon. Even if there are no damaging winds, brief downpours will reduce travel times significantly. Also a coastal flood advisory is in effect at the time of high tide Weds. Morning (8am).  The combination of astronomical higher tides and gusty onshore winds will produce minor water rise on south shore and inside Narragansett Bay

HRRR Model

hrrr 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

RPM Computer Projection Of Future Radar For Early Weds Morning (5am-8am)

rpm 1

 

 

rpm 2

 


Update #2: Storm Potential Early Wednesday Morning.

October 7th, 2014 at 3:43 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca

I am looking at lastest data and coordination discusssions from National Weather Service Taunton Mass

Here are some quick bullet points…A more detailed update coming up this evening. Please refer to Michelle’s previous blog post

Primary concerns:

  • Strong wind gusts (40-60 mph), which could occur even with no thunder.
    • o Down branches and perhaps some down powerlines are possible as trees are still fully leaved.
  • Heavy rainfall (over an inch is possible), with the possibility of typical urban/nuisance flooding.
  • A brief tornado or offshore waterspout is possible.
  • Heavy rainfall/storms will affect the AM commute.

Timing:

  • Mainly between 2 am til 10 am.
  • Particular focus from about 4 AM in the west – 8 AM in the east.

Area of greatest concern:

  • Heavy rain and wind threat is for all of Southern New England.
  • Best chance for tornado: across CT/RI and eastern MA. However still a possibility elsewhere.
  • South Coastal waters have best chance for waterspout.

Minor Coastal Flood Threat:

Strong south winds and building seas will lead to a surge up to a foot around the time of high tide Wednesday morning, which is an astronomically high spring tide.  Therefore, pockets of minor coastal flooding are expected.  A coastal flood advisory has been issued with location along Narragansett Bay being the greatest concern. The time of the high tide in Providence is 8:21 AM.

Despite st0rmy weather early Wednesday morning…It will turn sunny warm and dry by Wednesday Afternoon


Potentially Strong Storms on Wednesday Morning

October 7th, 2014 at 9:14 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heads up for early Wednesday: There’s the potential for some strong to severe storms during the morning commute in southern New England.

A strong cold front will approach southern New England with a line of thunderstorms expected to form along the front…. first affecting places like NYC and then heading east.

Simiulated Radar for Wed.

Simulated Radar for 5am Wed. 10/8

Simulated Radar for 9am Wed. 10/8

Simulated Radar for 9am Wed. 10/8

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Long Island and parts of CT and RI as having a “slight risk” for severe storms, including a small chance (2%) of a weak tornado.  However, it’s more likely that our area could see some damaging straight line wind gusts, torrential downpours and frequent lightning.  temp 1

Probability of a Weak Tornado

Probability of a Weak Tornado

In addition, there could be some minor coastal flooding around the morning high tide, between 8-9am.   A persistent southerly wind will combine with an astronomical high tide, leading to some minor splash-over in the morning along Narragansett Bay and Buzzards Bay as well as the south coast.


Frost Advisory for Parts of S’rn New England

October 5th, 2014 at 11:45 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Clear skies, dry air and light winds are allowing temperatures temperatures to fall quickly.  Areas away from the coastline could see a frost Monday morning.  Communities in the advisory include Cumberland, Lincoln, Woonsocket, Smithfield, North Smithfield, Burrillville, Foster, Glocester and Scituate in Rhode Island; Blackstone, Uxbridge and Douglas in Massachusetts; and Sterling, Killingly, Putnam and Thompson in Connecticut.

Light southerly winds will likely keep the temperatures above freezing near the coast and in the big cities.   However, it would not surprise me if north and central Bristol County, MA and Kent County, RI get frosts.

Weather_Alert_650x366

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Wet Start to October

October 4th, 2014 at 10:42 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of Saturday evening, Southern New England was still in a moderate drought.  Recent rains may slowly bring us out of  ‘drought’ status, however.  We could be labelled as “abnormally dry” when the next drought analysis is released from the United States Drought Monitor.  If not this week, we will could be out of a drought by the end of this week.  That analysis from the U.S. Drought Monitor will likely come Monday or Tuesday.

There has been measurable rain each of the first 4 days of October.

  • October 1:  0.30″
  • October 2:  0.31:
  • October 3:  0.01″
  • October 4:  0.28″

That brings the monthly total (through Saturday evening) up to 0.90″.

Compare that number to all the rain that fell in September…

Record2_650x366

September was the second driest on record, and we’ve been keeping track of Septembers since 1905.

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Flood Watch For Massachusetts Through Thursday AM

October 1st, 2014 at 2:24 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A Flood Watch starts at 5PM this evening and goes through tomorrow (Thursday) morning.  This watch is for Bristol County Massachusetts only.  Remember, a watch means there is a POTENTIAL of flooding.  If flooding is imminent, then a warning will be issues.

HEADLINES FOR Bristol County Mass (as well as Plymouth County, Cape Cod, and the islands):

- Periods of heavy rainfall which could lead to the flooding of streets or small streams.  The more likely areas to get flooding would be in far eastern areas such as the outer Cape.  Areas from New Bedford and points west are less likely to get flooding.

- 1 to 2 inches of rain are likely; but isolated higher amounts are possible.

- Periods of heavy rain will be moving through this afternoon, but the most likely time to see the heaviest of the rain is 5PM this evening into early Thursday morning.

As of this afternoon, Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 RADAR was already showing heavy amounts of moisture moving in from the Atlantic.

newIMG

 

FOR RHODE ISLAND:

0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain is likely; but some higher isolated amounts are possible. If the rain axis starts moving further west, it’s possible that parts of Rhode Island may have to be added to Flood Watch area. -Pete Mangione


September Was 2nd Driest on Record in RI

October 1st, 2014 at 8:30 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’re beginning October with rain…. something we saw very little of in September.  In fact, with just under 3/4″ of rain for the month at TF Green Airport, it became the 2nd driest September on record for RI.  The driest was 100 years ago– September 1914, when the area received 0.48″ of rain.  For September alone, that leaves us with a more than 3″ rainfall deficit.temp 3

The dry spell is taking its toll.  Last week, the US Drought Monitor upped the classification for most of southeastern New England from “abnormally dry” to “moderate drought”.

temp 2


US Drought Monitor valid September 23, 2014

No doubt, the ground is parched and our rivers and lakes are running very low.  Check out this view of Wordens Pond in Wakefield, RI from Eyewitness News viewer Gina Falcone.  The picture on the left is what the pond usually looks like, with the picture on the right from the past weekend.

Wordens Pond from Gina Falcone

Wordens Pond from Gina Falcone

We need some rainy days this month to help ease the drought conditions, and today will be one.  Periods of rain and drizzle are likely through tonight and early Thursday morning.  We’re hopeful that some areas will see more than 1/2″ of  rain.  A cold front on Saturday will give us another shot at some beneficial rain.  Even though the wet weather may impact your weekend plans, your lawns and gardens will be happy!


Landscape Starting To Change…Why Leaves Change Color

September 29th, 2014 at 6:55 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca

What make the leaves change color? They really don’t change color but rather reveal colors that are already there, hidden within deep pigments of green….As the green pigments disappears, other “hidden” colors show up. Plants absorb water from the ground through their roots. They also take in carbon dioxide from the air, while using sunlight to turn water and carbon dioxide into glucose. Glucose is a kind of sugar. Plants use glucose as “food” for energy to help them grow. The process of plants turning water and carbon dioxide into sugar is called photosynthesis. A chemical called chlorophyll helps make photosynthesis happen. Chlorophyll is what gives plants their green color.

colorful leaves

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Click HERE for current foliage color across New England this week

So….how do we get rid of the green colors?? That’s where the change of seasons comes in. As summer ends the days get shorter with less sunlight. During the winter, frozen soil means less water getting to the roots. As a result photosynthesis shuts down….green colors fade, revealing pigments of yellow and orange. In some trees, like maples, glucose is trapped in the leaves after photosynthesis stops. Sunlight and the cool nights of autumn cause the leaves to turn this glucose into a red color.

Our weather team will keep you updated…check back with us on wpri.com for more info.

Tony Petrarca


It’s a New Record!!

September 28th, 2014 at 4:54 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Most people who have lived in Southern New England their entire lives have never seen a September 28th as warm as this one.  A 71 year old temperature record has fallen at TF Green Airport, where the state’s climatological records are gathered.

For most of Sunday, the winds were very light out of the south and southwest, and temperatures stayed in the low 80s.  Late this afternoon, the winds turned westerly, and the temperature jumped a couple of degrees to smash the high temperature record for the date.

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High temperatures all over Southern New England were quite warm today, including 87° in Boston, 84° in Taunton and a toasty 80° in Newport.  Windsor Locks and Providence both set high temperature records for today.

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Monday will be a little cooler, but highs should still be well above average.  Mid to late week, however, temperatures will  likely stay in the 60s.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Near Record Warmth This Weekend

September 27th, 2014 at 11:55 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Saturday felt like summer outside.  From Newport to Providence to Taunton, temperatures soared into the 80s in the afternoon.

Here’s a look at the high temps from around the area on Saturday.

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That 85° mark in Providence was reached at 2:40pm.   That was 1° shy of tying the record for the date which is 86°.

 

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Most of Southeast New England in Drought

September 26th, 2014 at 12:13 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We got some rain Thursday into Friday, but for most of Southern New England, it didn’t do much to stop the dry spell.

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During the month of September, T.F. Green Airport in Warwick got 0.64″ of rain which is 2.60″ below normal.  This was after a fairly dry August when 2.70″ of rain fell…close to an inch below normal.   Something to note about that August rain:  most of it fell on one day…August 13th when 2.26″ fell leading to flash flooding.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is now classifying Rhode Island and Bristol County, MA in a moderate drought (tan color below).

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NOAA Says This Winter Could go Either Way

September 25th, 2014 at 5:09 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The Climate Prediction Center (the branch of NOAA that handles long term forecasts) recently issued their forecast for this upcoming winter.  Whether you are a “snow lover”, or a “snow hater”, there is not much to get excited about.  That’s because the forecast calls for equal chances of below or above normal precipitation.  The NOAA forecast map for this December, January, and February is below:

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The “EC” stands for equal chances, and one of those EC’s is sitting right over the northeast.  The green shaded areas with the A represent locations which have slightly better odds to receive above normal precipitation, and the orange shaded areas with the B represent locations which have slightly better odds to receive below normal precipitation. Precipitation includes rain as well as snow, but it still can be used as guide for making long term snow forecasts.

There is a lot of analysis that goes into making a long term forecast, and there are many different methods that can be used.   Several private forecasting firms have also come out with winter forecasts and the outlooks vary.  While I don’t know everything that went into the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, it’s likely that they based some of it on El Nino, which has a better than 50% chance of developing by this winter.

El Nino is characterized by the warm waters in the equatorial Pacific; this can affect the position of the jet stream and long term weather patterns.  During El Nino periods,  the Pacific jet stream tends to cut across the southern part of the United States.

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This brings a lot of moisture and lift to this region, which is why El Nino often brings soaking rain from central/southern California to the southeastern United States.  But history has shown there is NO strong signal for the northeast; that is likely one of the reasons for the “equal chances” forecast by NOAA for our area.

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For the sake of curiosity, I decided to look at a few of the past El Nino winters and a possible snowfall trend.  Here is a breakdown; the snowfall data comes from TF Green Airport (source: Northeastern Regional Climate Center)

 

El Nino Winter                                  Snowfall

2009-2010:                                             31.5

2006-2007:                                             15.1

2004-2005:                                             72.2

2002-2003:                                             56.3

 

With the normal TF Green snowfall being 33.8 inches, you can see that 2 El Nino winters had above normal snowfall, and 2 El Nino winters had below normal snowfall.  This includes a very snowy winter in 2004-2005 with 72 inches, and a very wimpy winter in 2006-2007 with just 15.1 inches.   Because there are only four years listed above, we can’t draw any scientific conclusions from this data.  However, it is interesting that the these four years support the idea that El Nino doesn’t really tell us anything about the upcoming winter in the northeast.  It can snow a lot, it can snow about average, and it might not snow that much at all!

Of course, we should be able to give a few more specifics as we get closer to winter. Enjoy  the beginning of autumn! -Pete Mangione


Daylight on the Decline

September 23rd, 2014 at 11:58 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Welcome to Autumn!  It’s a great season here in New England, with vibrant colors, sweater (and boots) weather and all things pumpkin.  What’s not to love?!  Well, for many, the shorter days that come with fall.  With the Autumnal Equinox, we mark the time where the sun’s direct rays cross the equator and head into the Southern Hemisphere.  It’s easy to notice with each passing day that the sunrises are getting later and the sunsets earlier.  In fact, we are losing about 3 minutes of daylight each day…. and those minutes quickly add up.

While equinox means “equal night”… that’s not exactly the case as we still have slightly more than 12 hours of daylight the first few days of Autumn.  Enjoy it, because by Saturday our nights will exceed our days for the first time since the start of spring.  And from there, we await the shortest day of the year…. December 21 when we only see the sun for a mere 9 hours and 13 minutes.  The sunset on  that day will be at 4:20pm.

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Along with the shorter days, inevitably comes the cooler temperatures due to the longer nights and weaker, indirect rays of the sun.  Our average high temperature drops from 72° today, to 58° on November 1 and 41° by December 21.

 


Autumn Officially Arrives Monday

September 21st, 2014 at 8:57 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The leaves are beginning to change color and the temperatures are getting cooler….autumn is upon us.   Autumn will officially be here at 10:29pm Monday evening — the time of the Autumnal Equinox.

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What is an equinox exactly? Equinox comes from a Latin word, aequus, which means equal — equal days and equal nights.   Astronomically, it’s the tilt of the Earth that causes the solstices and equinoxes.  The Earth is always tilted about its axis.  At a summer solstice, the Northern Hemisphere is tilted toward the sun.  In winter solstice, the Southern Hemisphere gets the sun’s more direct rays.  At the time of an equinox, however, the sun’s direct rays fall on the equator.  This year that exact time is 10:39pm.

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Big Waves and Rip Currents Expected Monday

September 21st, 2014 at 8:03 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A fairly potent ocean storm passing to our south and east is creating some big waves.  These waves will have a big impact on our coastline on Monday.  This system is passing closer than Bertha, Cristobal and Edouard did this summer.  While the system is weaker, its proximity to Southern New England will create larger and more frequent waves.

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This low is non-tropical, but it has a fairly deep central pressure of 997mb and winds of 25-30mph with higher gusts. These winds are creating the big waves which will impact Southern New England’s coastline on Monday.

The National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Advisory for Monday 8am-5pm.

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Sunday Morning Update: CVS 5K and Pats

September 21st, 2014 at 8:38 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

So far, the showers have been primarily staying to our north and west this morning.  Here is a breakdown for what to expect for  the rest of the day:

CVS Health 5K: It will be warm and muggy at the start of the race with temperatures in the mid 70s.  There will be a threat of a shower or downpour, but most of the time it is rain free.  I would say shorts and t-shirts if you are a runner; if you are a spectator a rain jacket or poncho might not be a bad idea in case you get hit by a brief downpour.

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Pats Game: Similar to the 5K, most of the time will be rain free, warm and muggy.  There could be a brief shower or downpour for tailgating or during the game.  Temperatures will be in the upper 70s from start to finish (exception would be if a shower comes through), so you don’t have to worry about a cool down for the end of the game.

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Enjoy your Sunday! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


CVS Downtown 5K and Patriots Futurecast: Showers

September 20th, 2014 at 11:57 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Moisture was working its way up the coastline Saturday evening and it’ll  be here in Southern New England on Sunday.  Expect some showers in the area, but we are not expecting a washout.  The bulk of the rain should remain offshore.  That moisture is associated with an area of low pressure that developed off the Carolina coast on Saturday.

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We expect the showers to develop in Southern New England before dawn on Sunday.   These showers will be mostly around during the morning on Sunday and they should be fairly scattered in nature.

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Watching a Low Center off the Carolina Coast

September 20th, 2014 at 10:50 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We are watching an area of low pressure off the Carolina coastline very closely.  This steadily developed and strengthened through the day on Saturday.

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If this low were to sit off the coast another day or so, this system could become a tropical storm.  As of 10:15pm Saturday, the winds around the center were strengthening.  This is some weather information from a buoy just to the northeast of the center.

Courtesy: NOAA/National Data Buoy Center

Courtesy: NOAA/National Data Buoy Center

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