Tony’s Pinpoint Weather Blog

Flood Watch For Massachusetts Through Thursday AM

October 1st, 2014 at 2:24 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A Flood Watch starts at 5PM this evening and goes through tomorrow (Thursday) morning.  This watch is for Bristol County Massachusetts only.  Remember, a watch means there is a POTENTIAL of flooding.  If flooding is imminent, then a warning will be issues.

HEADLINES FOR Bristol County Mass (as well as Plymouth County, Cape Cod, and the islands):

- Periods of heavy rainfall which could lead to the flooding of streets or small streams.  The more likely areas to get flooding would be in far eastern areas such as the outer Cape.  Areas from New Bedford and points west are less likely to get flooding.

- 1 to 2 inches of rain are likely; but isolated higher amounts are possible.

- Periods of heavy rain will be moving through this afternoon, but the most likely time to see the heaviest of the rain is 5PM this evening into early Thursday morning.

As of this afternoon, Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 RADAR was already showing heavy amounts of moisture moving in from the Atlantic.

newIMG

 

FOR RHODE ISLAND:

0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain is likely; but some higher isolated amounts are possible. If the rain axis starts moving further west, it’s possible that parts of Rhode Island may have to be added to Flood Watch area. -Pete Mangione


September Was 2nd Driest on Record in RI

October 1st, 2014 at 8:30 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’re beginning October with rain…. something we saw very little of in September.  In fact, with just under 3/4″ of rain for the month at TF Green Airport, it became the 2nd driest September on record for RI.  The driest was 100 years ago– September 1914, when the area received 0.48″ of rain.  For September alone, that leaves us with a more than 3″ rainfall deficit.temp 3

The dry spell is taking its toll.  Last week, the US Drought Monitor upped the classification for most of southeastern New England from “abnormally dry” to “moderate drought”.

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US Drought Monitor valid September 23, 2014

No doubt, the ground is parched and our rivers and lakes are running very low.  Check out this view of Wordens Pond in Wakefield, RI from Eyewitness News viewer Gina Falcone.  The picture on the left is what the pond usually looks like, with the picture on the right from the past weekend.

Wordens Pond from Gina Falcone

Wordens Pond from Gina Falcone

We need some rainy days this month to help ease the drought conditions, and today will be one.  Periods of rain and drizzle are likely through tonight and early Thursday morning.  We’re hopeful that some areas will see more than 1/2″ of  rain.  A cold front on Saturday will give us another shot at some beneficial rain.  Even though the wet weather may impact your weekend plans, your lawns and gardens will be happy!


Landscape Starting To Change…Why Leaves Change Color

September 29th, 2014 at 6:55 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca

What make the leaves change color? They really don’t change color but rather reveal colors that are already there, hidden within deep pigments of green….As the green pigments disappears, other “hidden” colors show up. Plants absorb water from the ground through their roots. They also take in carbon dioxide from the air, while using sunlight to turn water and carbon dioxide into glucose. Glucose is a kind of sugar. Plants use glucose as “food” for energy to help them grow. The process of plants turning water and carbon dioxide into sugar is called photosynthesis. A chemical called chlorophyll helps make photosynthesis happen. Chlorophyll is what gives plants their green color.

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Click HERE for current foliage color across New England this week

So….how do we get rid of the green colors?? That’s where the change of seasons comes in. As summer ends the days get shorter with less sunlight. During the winter, frozen soil means less water getting to the roots. As a result photosynthesis shuts down….green colors fade, revealing pigments of yellow and orange. In some trees, like maples, glucose is trapped in the leaves after photosynthesis stops. Sunlight and the cool nights of autumn cause the leaves to turn this glucose into a red color.

Our weather team will keep you updated…check back with us on wpri.com for more info.

Tony Petrarca


It’s a New Record!!

September 28th, 2014 at 4:54 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Most people who have lived in Southern New England their entire lives have never seen a September 28th as warm as this one.  A 71 year old temperature record has fallen at TF Green Airport, where the state’s climatological records are gathered.

For most of Sunday, the winds were very light out of the south and southwest, and temperatures stayed in the low 80s.  Late this afternoon, the winds turned westerly, and the temperature jumped a couple of degrees to smash the high temperature record for the date.

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High temperatures all over Southern New England were quite warm today, including 87° in Boston, 84° in Taunton and a toasty 80° in Newport.  Windsor Locks and Providence both set high temperature records for today.

Highs_Today2

Monday will be a little cooler, but highs should still be well above average.  Mid to late week, however, temperatures will  likely stay in the 60s.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Near Record Warmth This Weekend

September 27th, 2014 at 11:55 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Saturday felt like summer outside.  From Newport to Providence to Taunton, temperatures soared into the 80s in the afternoon.

Here’s a look at the high temps from around the area on Saturday.

Highs_Today_650x366

That 85° mark in Providence was reached at 2:40pm.   That was 1° shy of tying the record for the date which is 86°.

 

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Most of Southeast New England in Drought

September 26th, 2014 at 12:13 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We got some rain Thursday into Friday, but for most of Southern New England, it didn’t do much to stop the dry spell.

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During the month of September, T.F. Green Airport in Warwick got 0.64″ of rain which is 2.60″ below normal.  This was after a fairly dry August when 2.70″ of rain fell…close to an inch below normal.   Something to note about that August rain:  most of it fell on one day…August 13th when 2.26″ fell leading to flash flooding.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is now classifying Rhode Island and Bristol County, MA in a moderate drought (tan color below).

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NOAA Says This Winter Could go Either Way

September 25th, 2014 at 5:09 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The Climate Prediction Center (the branch of NOAA that handles long term forecasts) recently issued their forecast for this upcoming winter.  Whether you are a “snow lover”, or a “snow hater”, there is not much to get excited about.  That’s because the forecast calls for equal chances of below or above normal precipitation.  The NOAA forecast map for this December, January, and February is below:

NOAA_Precip_Forecast

The “EC” stands for equal chances, and one of those EC’s is sitting right over the northeast.  The green shaded areas with the A represent locations which have slightly better odds to receive above normal precipitation, and the orange shaded areas with the B represent locations which have slightly better odds to receive below normal precipitation. Precipitation includes rain as well as snow, but it still can be used as guide for making long term snow forecasts.

There is a lot of analysis that goes into making a long term forecast, and there are many different methods that can be used.   Several private forecasting firms have also come out with winter forecasts and the outlooks vary.  While I don’t know everything that went into the forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, it’s likely that they based some of it on El Nino, which has a better than 50% chance of developing by this winter.

El Nino is characterized by the warm waters in the equatorial Pacific; this can affect the position of the jet stream and long term weather patterns.  During El Nino periods,  the Pacific jet stream tends to cut across the southern part of the United States.

PeteNino

This brings a lot of moisture and lift to this region, which is why El Nino often brings soaking rain from central/southern California to the southeastern United States.  But history has shown there is NO strong signal for the northeast; that is likely one of the reasons for the “equal chances” forecast by NOAA for our area.

Precip_2_Blog

For the sake of curiosity, I decided to look at a few of the past El Nino winters and a possible snowfall trend.  Here is a breakdown; the snowfall data comes from TF Green Airport (source: Northeastern Regional Climate Center)

 

El Nino Winter                                  Snowfall

2009-2010:                                             31.5

2006-2007:                                             15.1

2004-2005:                                             72.2

2002-2003:                                             56.3

 

With the normal TF Green snowfall being 33.8 inches, you can see that 2 El Nino winters had above normal snowfall, and 2 El Nino winters had below normal snowfall.  This includes a very snowy winter in 2004-2005 with 72 inches, and a very wimpy winter in 2006-2007 with just 15.1 inches.   Because there are only four years listed above, we can’t draw any scientific conclusions from this data.  However, it is interesting that the these four years support the idea that El Nino doesn’t really tell us anything about the upcoming winter in the northeast.  It can snow a lot, it can snow about average, and it might not snow that much at all!

Of course, we should be able to give a few more specifics as we get closer to winter. Enjoy  the beginning of autumn! -Pete Mangione


Daylight on the Decline

September 23rd, 2014 at 11:58 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Welcome to Autumn!  It’s a great season here in New England, with vibrant colors, sweater (and boots) weather and all things pumpkin.  What’s not to love?!  Well, for many, the shorter days that come with fall.  With the Autumnal Equinox, we mark the time where the sun’s direct rays cross the equator and head into the Southern Hemisphere.  It’s easy to notice with each passing day that the sunrises are getting later and the sunsets earlier.  In fact, we are losing about 3 minutes of daylight each day…. and those minutes quickly add up.

While equinox means “equal night”… that’s not exactly the case as we still have slightly more than 12 hours of daylight the first few days of Autumn.  Enjoy it, because by Saturday our nights will exceed our days for the first time since the start of spring.  And from there, we await the shortest day of the year…. December 21 when we only see the sun for a mere 9 hours and 13 minutes.  The sunset on  that day will be at 4:20pm.

temp 3

Along with the shorter days, inevitably comes the cooler temperatures due to the longer nights and weaker, indirect rays of the sun.  Our average high temperature drops from 72° today, to 58° on November 1 and 41° by December 21.

 


Autumn Officially Arrives Monday

September 21st, 2014 at 8:57 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The leaves are beginning to change color and the temperatures are getting cooler….autumn is upon us.   Autumn will officially be here at 10:29pm Monday evening — the time of the Autumnal Equinox.

Autumnal_Equinox_650x366

What is an equinox exactly? Equinox comes from a Latin word, aequus, which means equal — equal days and equal nights.   Astronomically, it’s the tilt of the Earth that causes the solstices and equinoxes.  The Earth is always tilted about its axis.  At a summer solstice, the Northern Hemisphere is tilted toward the sun.  In winter solstice, the Southern Hemisphere gets the sun’s more direct rays.  At the time of an equinox, however, the sun’s direct rays fall on the equator.  This year that exact time is 10:39pm.

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Big Waves and Rip Currents Expected Monday

September 21st, 2014 at 8:03 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A fairly potent ocean storm passing to our south and east is creating some big waves.  These waves will have a big impact on our coastline on Monday.  This system is passing closer than Bertha, Cristobal and Edouard did this summer.  While the system is weaker, its proximity to Southern New England will create larger and more frequent waves.

Storm_Radar_650x366

This low is non-tropical, but it has a fairly deep central pressure of 997mb and winds of 25-30mph with higher gusts. These winds are creating the big waves which will impact Southern New England’s coastline on Monday.

The National Weather Service has issued a High Surf Advisory for Monday 8am-5pm.

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Sunday Morning Update: CVS 5K and Pats

September 21st, 2014 at 8:38 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

So far, the showers have been primarily staying to our north and west this morning.  Here is a breakdown for what to expect for  the rest of the day:

CVS Health 5K: It will be warm and muggy at the start of the race with temperatures in the mid 70s.  There will be a threat of a shower or downpour, but most of the time it is rain free.  I would say shorts and t-shirts if you are a runner; if you are a spectator a rain jacket or poncho might not be a bad idea in case you get hit by a brief downpour.

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Pats Game: Similar to the 5K, most of the time will be rain free, warm and muggy.  There could be a brief shower or downpour for tailgating or during the game.  Temperatures will be in the upper 70s from start to finish (exception would be if a shower comes through), so you don’t have to worry about a cool down for the end of the game.

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Enjoy your Sunday! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


CVS Downtown 5K and Patriots Futurecast: Showers

September 20th, 2014 at 11:57 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Moisture was working its way up the coastline Saturday evening and it’ll  be here in Southern New England on Sunday.  Expect some showers in the area, but we are not expecting a washout.  The bulk of the rain should remain offshore.  That moisture is associated with an area of low pressure that developed off the Carolina coast on Saturday.

Fcst_Map4_650x366

We expect the showers to develop in Southern New England before dawn on Sunday.   These showers will be mostly around during the morning on Sunday and they should be fairly scattered in nature.

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Watching a Low Center off the Carolina Coast

September 20th, 2014 at 10:50 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We are watching an area of low pressure off the Carolina coastline very closely.  This steadily developed and strengthened through the day on Saturday.

Storm_Radar_650x366

If this low were to sit off the coast another day or so, this system could become a tropical storm.  As of 10:15pm Saturday, the winds around the center were strengthening.  This is some weather information from a buoy just to the northeast of the center.

Courtesy: NOAA/National Data Buoy Center

Courtesy: NOAA/National Data Buoy Center

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CVS Health 5K: Mild Temperatures, but Showers Possible

September 20th, 2014 at 8:33 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The CVS 5K starts at 11:15AM tomorrow (Sunday), and we are tracking the CHANCE for a few showers.  I have done this race a few times over the past few years and the weather has been fantastic, so hopefully we can keep it that way!

A tricky forecast is developing for Sunday because a chunk of tropical moisture will make a close pass to southern New England.

What we know about Sunday: A mild air mass will be in place, so even if we end up with morning showers and a lot of clouds, temperatures should be in the 70s for most of the day.  Temperatures should be in the low 70s around 11:15AM for the start of the race.  That is almost ideal for running in terms of temperature, but it will be muggy.

What we still need to fine tune: There is still a lot of uncertainty in the threat of Sunday showers.  If this “chunk” of tropical moisture stays well offshore, then we end up with just a brief sprinkle or no showers at all.  If this chunk of tropical moisture moves further inland, then some downpours and even a thunderstorm is possible Sunday morning.   My forecast for now leans towards the drier scenario, with a few brief sprinkles possible Sunday morning and then a dry afternoon.

ForecSundAM

 

If you are running in or watching the 5K, I would at plan on a few showers for Sunday morning.  Tune in to TJ tonight, and then catch me at 6AM tomorrow morning on WPRI 12.  We will be going live in Providence for the race preparations, and I will be tracking potential showers with Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 RADAR.  -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Cold Morning, Cold Tonight, Warmer Weekend

September 19th, 2014 at 11:24 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Brrrrr…..temperatures this morning were pretty cold (by September standards) throughout New England.  Here in Southern New England, temperatures were between 42 and 50 at sunrise…a little milder on the Cape and on the Islands.

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In Northern New England and Upstate New York, temperatures were winter-like…and it’s not even officially Fall yet! The low was 21° in Saranac Lake, NY!!

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Hurricane Edouard Weakens, But Still Strong In Central Atlantic

September 16th, 2014 at 7:01 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

AFTER REACHING 115 MPH EDOUARD BEGINS TO WEAKEN…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST
LOCATION…32.3N   57.5W
ABOUT 425 MI…685 KM EAST OF BERMUDA

ABOUT 1670 MI…2685 KM W OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT…NORTH AT 15 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…958 MB

 

 

eddy now

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

eddy track


Northern Lights Could Be Visible Friday Night

September 12th, 2014 at 11:44 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Some space weather forecasters are saying tonight could be the best opportunity for us to see the Northern Lights in over a year.   Forecasting this phenomenon is very difficult, but here’s how you may be able to see it tonight.

  • Wait until the sky gets dark
  • Get away from city lights
  • Look to the northern horizon
  • Be patient, check back through the night

The science behind the Aurora Borealis

Two powerful solar flares erupted from the sun on both Monday and Wednesday this week.  Material from these eruptions was thrown through space and toward Earth.  Material released from a solar flare is called a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).   That material is a plasma consisting of electrons and protons and sometimes helium and oxygen.

Here’s a movie of the X-Class solar flare on Wednesday from NASA:

 

The Earth’s atmosphere protects us from the large amounts of radiation from the sun; however there are times that power grids see fluctuations or damage.  Communication satellites could see disruptions and GPS units could briefly become unusable tonight.

A nice side-effect of these particles hitting the Earth is the Northern Lights or the Aurora Borealis.  Space weather forecasters from NOAA said in their “Space Weather Watch” that auroras are potentially visible from Pennsylvania to Iowa to Oregon.  We are at the same latitude as those states, so it is quite possible we could see the Northern Lights tonight.

The Northern Lights occur when the particles from the sun follow the Earth’s magnetic poles and interact with the gases in the Earth’s atmosphere.  That interaction causes the gases to emit light.   The most common color is a pale green.  On some occasions, other colors are present.

From the first eruption from the sun on Monday, Northern Lights were reported from Northern Michigan to Alaska Thursday night.   So, the atmosphere is already energized, and the one-two punch on consecutive nights could create an Aurora visible from Southern New England.   The strength of the Aurora can be measured by a number called the Kp index.  To see the lights from Rhode Island and Massachusetts, we typically need a Kp index of 7 to 8.   What makes Friday night/Saturday morning special is that some space weather forecasters are saying we could get a Kp index of 9!

 

Sky_Watch_650x366

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Birds Caught on Radar

September 12th, 2014 at 10:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

This morning around sunrise, Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar detected a very large flock of birds over Connecticut.

Tree_Swallows_650x366

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Tropical Storm Edouard Latest

September 12th, 2014 at 9:32 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Tropical Storm Edouard continues his trek across the Deep Tropics.  As of 8am, Edouard was approximately 1130 miles to the west of the Cape Verde Islands.  It was moving pretty quickly, too, at about 15mph, heading westward.

Currently, the tropical storm is battling some upper-level winds and dry air, but a slow strengthening is expected during the next several days…possibly intensifying into a hurricane over the weekend.

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Tropical Storm Edouard Forms In Far Open Atlantic

September 11th, 2014 at 10:48 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC…
FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT TO SEA  AND NO THREAT TO U.S. MAINLAND

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM

LOCATION…17.3N 39.4W
ABOUT 1020 MI…1645 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS
INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD…THE FIFTH
NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE CURRRENT ATLANTIC HURRICANE
SEASON. AT 1100 PM THE CENTER OF EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST.

EDOUARD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH….AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS EDOUARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

 

eddy


Minor Earthquake in RI Monday Evening

September 9th, 2014 at 3:30 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

At 9:58pm Monday evening, there was a minor earthquake just off the west coast of Portsmouth…between Portsmouth and Prudence Island.  The epicenter was right near Portsmouth Abbey.

weston_earthquake

It was a magnitude 1.5 earthquake.  Typically, humans don’t feel earthquakes below magnitude 2.0, but a minor earthquake near New Bedford earlier this year was felt by many people.  That one was very shallow.  The earthquake Monday evening was about 7miles deep, and it’s doubtful anyone felt this tremor.   There were no reports of damage.

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Dry Skies for Primary Day Voters

September 8th, 2014 at 11:32 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Candidates will have Mother Nature in their corner this Primary Day, with pleasant weather conditions for getting voters to the polls.

Polling places will open at 7am under a mix of clouds and milky sun with temperatures climbing from the 50s into the 60s.  The day in Rhode Island and Massachusetts will remain mostly dry, with fairly low humidity and temperatures in the 70s in the afternoon.  It will be slightly cooler than normal for the 2nd week of September.

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High pressure will stay to our north as an area of low pressure moves from the North Carolina coast into the waters well south of New England…. while some of the clouds from this disturbance will make their way into southern New England, the wet weather will not.  Rain stays suppressed to the south, leading to a dry walk/drive to polling places.  The exception to that may be an isolated sprinkle/light shower that could fall on Cape Cod or the Islands

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Tuesday Morning Surface Map Valid at 8am

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Tuesday Evening Surface Map Valid at 8pm

For more details on the Primary Elections check out our Campaign 2014 coverage here.


Cooler Temperatures Ahead

September 8th, 2014 at 12:19 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After a very warm and humid couple of days here in Southern New England late last week, we are going into a relatively cool stretch of weather.  The average high temperature for the second week of September is between 74 and 76°F with average lows between 55 and 57°.   We’ll have a couple days when we could see temperatures get above normal, but in general, this will be a cooler than normal period.

The jet stream, a fast-moving river of air high above in the atmosphere will be dipping down across the United States this week.  The jet stream guides storm systems and batches of air around the world.

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Cold Front Almost in RI, Still Showers Through Midnight

September 6th, 2014 at 8:37 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 8:30pm, a strong cold front was almost into Rhode Island.  It’ll be passing through Southern New England by midnight.  With the front comes a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms.

deleteme

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Some downpours and possibly some thunder have developed just north of Providence…from North Providence into Pawtucket and Central Falls out to Mansfield.  These storms were moving east-northeast.  While the storms are bringing heavy rain to the communities in their path, they only have a slight chance of becoming severe.

Storm_Radar_650x366

Once this front passes, there will still be the chance for additional showers, but they will likely not be severe.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


5pm Radar Update

September 6th, 2014 at 5:03 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 5pm Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar was detecting a couple of decent-sized thunderstorms moving through eastern Connecticut.  These storms have been producing frequent lightning and torrential rain.  As of 5pm, I have not seen or (believe to be) any wind damage from these two cells.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 9pm

September 6th, 2014 at 3:16 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of Southern New England, except for the Cape and Islands.  A Watch means that there is the potential for severe storms in our area — the atmospheric conditions are favorable and becoming more favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms.

 

Weather_Alert_650x366The timing of storms in our area will be between 4 and 9pm.  These storms have the potential to bring:

  • torrential, flooding rains
  • damaging wind gusts
  • frequent lightning
  • hail
  • isolated tornado

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Storms Arrive Late Today, Some Could be Strong

September 6th, 2014 at 8:23 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Although most of today (Saturday) will be free of rain and storms, some potentially severe weather arrives by late afternoon and evening.  Here is a timeline of what to expect:

Saturday Morning: Some thick fog will give way to partly sunny skies, the fog may take a little while longer to clear from the coast.  Humidity will be VERY high…so if you go out for your morning run or walk, don’t be surprised if you sweat immediately!

Saturday Noon to 4PM: Heat and humidity will continue to build with periods of hazy sun.  A few showers or thunderstorms are possible north and west of I-95, but most areas will stay dry. 

Saturday 4PM to 10PM: This is the most likely period for strong to severe thunderstorms.  While it won’t be raining this entire time, you will want to be in a place where you can get inside quickly.  Keep in mind, there is no guarantee that will get severe weather, but the risk is high enough where we need to point out some POTENTIAL threats.  The threats include hail, flash flooding, and even a slight chance of a tornado.   Here is a break down from the high resolution RPM model.

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Note that northwest RI (especially north and west of 295) has the best chance of severe weather during the late afternoon, while the severe threat shifts to Little Compton and points east by late tonight.  Stay with us both on air and online, we will keep you updated throughout the day. -Pete Mangione


Strong/Severe Thunderstorms Possible Saturday

September 5th, 2014 at 8:34 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The air will be  stickier today as southwesterly winds transport higher humidity into the region.  The dew point temperatures (measure of amount of moisture in the air) will spike on Saturday in the low 70s.

Dewpoint_Futurecast_650x366

In addition, we will have a cold front moving through New England Saturday afternoon.  This front will serve as a ‘spark’ for the development of showers and thunderstorms.  The atmospheric ingredients are coming together for some of those storms to be strong to severe.

Fcst_Map_650x366

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Tropical Storm Dolly Headed For Mexico.

September 2nd, 2014 at 6:53 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

The 4th storm of the hurricane is a weak tropical storm…no threat to US mainland.

dolly

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DOLLY EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TONIGHT

 LOCATION…22.0N 97.0W ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI…215 KM SSE OF LA PESCA MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…West  AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB

  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * CABO ROJO TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK….AT 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT…AND CONTINUE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER DOLLY MOVES INLAND…AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…220 KM FROM THE CENTER.


2014 Summer in Review

September 2nd, 2014 at 11:52 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

With the start of September, meteorological summer in North America has come to an end and autumn has begun.  Looking back on the summer of 2014, it will likely be remembered as one without extreme heat and humidity and without a lot of rainy days…. and for the most part, that’s what our data shows.  At TF Green Airport, where our records for Rhode Island are kept temperatures from June 1 through August 31 were 0.5° cooler than normal with 1.88″ less rainfall than normal.  Here’s a breakdown of the data:

PROVIDENCE …PERIOD OF RECORD: 1905 TO PRESENT…

AVG HIGH                      AVG LOW                AVG MEAN                PCPN

  ——–                              ——-                            ——–                      —- —- ——-

JUN:                   78.2                               57.3                              67.8                        2.36

 +0.7                                -1.1                                -0.2                          -1.28

 

JUL:                   82.9                              65.4                               74.2                           3.59

 +0.1                             +1.2                                 +0.7                         +0.30

 

AUG:                   80.4                           60.6                               70.5                              2.70

 -1.0                             -2.6                                  -1.8                               -0.90

 

SEASONAL SUMMARY —————-

SUMMER:           80.5                       61.1                                      70.8                            8.65

  -0.1                        -0.9                                     -0.5                                -1.88

RECORDS ——-

7/04…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.68…PREVIOUSLY 1.65 IN 1978

08/13…RECORD DAILY PRECIPITATION…2.26…PREVIOUSLY 1.28 IN 1958

 

As for meteorological autumn…. it’s certainly starting off warm–with the first week of September looking and feeling more like July, temperatures will be will above average.  And the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting both the month of September and Autumn as a whole to be warmer than average in the east.  So keep those pools open…. at least for now :)

September Temperature Probability

September Temperature Probability

 

Sept, Oct, Nov Temperature Probability

3-month Temp Outlook for Sept, Oct, Nov