Tony’s Pinpoint Weather Blog

Cool Shot of Air Next Week…Does it Affect New England?

July 23rd, 2014 at 5:04 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

You may have already heard about the cool air moving in next week.  It is likely that much of the mid-west, northern plains, and even parts of the northeast will be affected by this cool plunge.  However, for our viewing area here in southern New England, the cool-down might not be quite as extreme.

As projected by the European model, here is a look at surface temperatures next Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Graphic_Blog

Image Courtesy accuweather.com

Note the temperatures in the 50s and 60s around the Great Lakes region. That’s pretty cool stuff for a summer afternoon in that part of the country.  Also note the 70s showing up for Southern New England.  Because of the time zone difference, this actually represents Tuesday evening on the east coast…so 70s on the east coast is really not that unusual.

So why will this affect out neighbors to the west more than us? A lot of it has to do with what is going on high up in the atmosphere.  As projected by the European model, here is what is going on at 500 millibars next Tuesday afternoon/evening. (The height of 500 millibars varies by temperature, but it averages several miles above the surface of the earth).

Graphic_Blog_2

Image Courtesy accuweather.com

The 500mb chart is usually a great way to show large scale weather patterns.  If you think of the chart like a mountain range, the ridges often represent the warmer weather and the dips often represent the cooler weather.  Notice the major dip from Canada all the way down into the Tennessee Valley…but also notice that New England is more on the edge of the dip than the center of the dip.  This suggests that the cold plunge will be more of a “glancing blow” than a direct hit for southern New England.

That being said, we are still almost a week away from the event, and the computer models can sometimes underestimate these cool air invasions.  We will keep you posted! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Tropical Depression #2 Has Formed

July 21st, 2014 at 4:56 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s not too much of a surprise…Tropical Depression #2 has formed in the Deep Tropics.

TD2

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The system has become better organized with thunderstorms organizing around the center of circulation.  TD #2 is expected to continue to move west-northwestward with minimal development.  The National Hurricane Center said that it will be moving over an area of unfavorable water temperatures in the next 2 days.  Also, drier air near the Caribbean Sea will also hinder its development.  Still, it’s a system to watch closely in the coming days.

 

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Bertha in the Making?

July 21st, 2014 at 2:27 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

In the central Atlantic Ocean, there is an area of low pressure which could soon become the next tropical storm.  If sustained winds strengthen to at least 39mph, it would be named Bertha.  The National Hurricane Center in Miami said there is a 70% chance that this area becomes a tropical depression. Conditions are favorable for strengthening in the next couple of days.

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It’s about 1250miles east of the Caribbean.  It’s days away from affecting any land, but it is certainly something to watch as it continues to move westward.

The visible satellite image shows a well defined circulation, and in my opinion, it is probably already a tropical depression and close to a tropical storm.  There are no plans for Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate this area (it’s still pretty far away).   Nonetheless, the National Hurricane Center is advising people in the eastern Caribbean to monitor the situation closely.

vis0-lalo

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A Mostly Dry Weekend

July 19th, 2014 at 8:53 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Despite lots of clouds over Southern New England this weekend, we should stay mostly dry.  High pressure passing to our north and east today will keep us dry through the daylight hours.

 Fcst_Map_650x366

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Sunday Weather Concerns….

July 17th, 2014 at 11:06 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

Still some uncertainty with Sunday’s Forecast. We continue to see indications of an offshore storm passing south of our area.  Our forecast so far has been for dry weather but with extra clouds. Some new model data has been trending the rain closer to us. We will wait for more data  overnight, but should this trend continue, we will need to lean more towards a wetter Sunday….stay tuned for updates 

sunfday


Latest Radar Update…Heaviest Rain Moving Out.

July 16th, 2014 at 6:42 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Latest radar continues to show heaviest rain and thunder offshore and moving away. Flash flood watch is canceled in Rhode Island….it will expire in southeast Massachusetts at 8pm…Despite teh heaviest rain moving away..there is still the chance of a few showers this evening….major improvements start Thursday

 

rad12


Flood Watch Canceled For Rhode Island, Continues For S.E. Massachusetts

July 16th, 2014 at 3:45 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 Good Afternoon From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

Based on latest radar trends, flood watch has been canceled for Rhode Island…continues for Southeast Mass for few more hours

 

canxcell


2PM Radar Update…

July 16th, 2014 at 2:00 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

Still tracking rain offshore that continues to move into our area…but the heaviest of rain is still aimed towards southeastern Massachusetts from roughly Newport to New Bedford where flooding was occuring earlier. Still looks like the bulk of  the rain will move away by this evening as drier, less humid air arrives Tonight.  Still the chance of brief flash flooding, but “isolated “…..not all areas will see street flooding. Stay tuned to Eyewitness News startingf at 5pm….we will show you some of Today’s minor to moderate flooding along with lightning damage which knocked down some large trees……Tony Petrarca

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11am Weather Update

July 16th, 2014 at 11:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As this slow-moving weather system continues to move east, the heaviest of the rain and thus the warnings continue to shift east.

As of 11am, the heaviest of the rain extends from just east of Block Island to New Bedford…heading northeastward.

Daily-Graphic-3_650x366

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Flash Flood Warning in Effect Until 10:30am.

July 16th, 2014 at 7:59 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Flash Flood warning has been issued for parts of RI and SE MA for much of RI and into parts of Bristol County in MA.  A Flash flood warning means that flash flooding is occuring or imminent.  This line of strong thunderstorms has brought torrential rainfall with rates of 2-3″/hr.  Street and poor drainage flooding is likely along with some smaller stream flooding.  temp 1


Today’s the Day

July 16th, 2014 at 7:10 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Today’s the day that RI and southeastern MA will have the highest risk of showers and thunderstorms due to a slow-moving cold front.  It’s a front that’s been sparking nasty storms across New England since Sunday evening and today it will FINALLY move through southeastern New England and then eventually off-shore.  We’ve been able to dodge most of the storms over the last few days, but today I think our luck runs out.  Since the front is approaching RI and southeastern MA (and eventually moving over us), we have a high chance of seeing rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the day.  In fact, we’ve already been dealing with downpours for the morning commute.

The main concern today continues to be the potential for FLASH FLOODING.  The Flash Flood watch is in effect until 2pm.  Tropical downpours will be off and on through the day with rainfall rates of up to 1-2″ per hour possible.  That sort of deluge can cause typically prone spots to quickly flood, making travel difficult.  The threat of severe storms is a bit lower than the last few days, but we could certainly see some embedded stronger thunderstorms with frequent lightning and isolated damaging wind gusts.

 


Evening Update. Radar Shows Storms Close To Arriving

July 15th, 2014 at 9:38 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening  From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….

 Latest radar as of 935 pm shows areal coverage of heavy rain and thunder expanding across  Long Island and just offshore. This heavier rain and thunder will move in after 11pm and continue thru the overnight and into Wednesday. Some localized flash flooding of streets is expected at times Tonight thru the Wednesday morning commute…my updated forecast Tonight on channel 12 Eyewitness Newsat 11pm

 

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Highest Risk For Severe Storms “Western” New England

July 15th, 2014 at 2:44 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

As of 2:30pm, most of our area as been void of any strong to severe thunderstorms.  The highest risk still looks like central and western Massachusetts and Connecticut.  However a strong thunderstorm(s) cant be ruled out for rest of our area this evening  thru Wednesday, so stay tuned to future forecasts, tweets and blogs. Flash Flood Watch remains in effect in anticipation of heavier downpours tonight into Wednesday .

Tony Petrarca

threat 5 

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The Beat Goes On…

July 15th, 2014 at 8:59 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The same steamy air mass and slow moving cold front that brought some showers and thunderstorms to New England on Monday is still affecting our weather today.  And the risk for severe storms continues.  The storm prediction center is continuing to highlight western New England as the area most at risk of seeing storms with damaging winds and heavy rain develop.  The high-resolution RPM model is showing that area to be one to watch by early-mid afternoon.

temp1

RPM Model for 2pm Tuesday

There is even a slight chance of an isolated tornado spinning up in one of these thunderstorms today.  In southeastern New England, the risk of severe weather will be lower, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see some nasty storms later today.  Any storms that develop in western New England will need to be carefully monitored as they move east towards the RI border during the afternoon and evening.

Our area will see more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms late tonight and Wednesday as the cold front finally moves through southeastern New England.  We’re at risk of torrential downpours and gusty winds during Wednesday morning’s commute with localized street and poor drainage flooding potentially leading to a slow commute.   temp 2

The rain will taper off from west to east through the late afternoon and evening, with drier weather finally returning by Thursday.


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Thunderstorms Likely…”Some” Could Be Strong To Severe.

July 14th, 2014 at 7:08 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

The weather patern next 48 hours will favor heavy showers and thunderstorms  “at times” . Some storm will be strong to severe Tonight into Tuesday. The best chance for storms reaching severe limits on Tuesday will be in western Massachusetts and western Connecticutt.  Map below shows the Tuesday risk area in yellow. Even though it does not include Rhode Island at this time, it is close enough that it bears watching.  Thunderstorms  in the yellow risk area have a slight chance of producing an isolated Tornado…again does not include our viewing area..BUT …it should be  monitored.  A few strong thunderstorms later this evening, with another chance by  “late” Tuesday afternoon and evening.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS:  Now thru Wednesday Afternoon: 2 to 4 inches

WINDS:  Strong Gusts In Any Severe Thunderstorms.

FLOODING:  Potential For “Localized” Poor Drainage Street Flooding

severe2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TUESDAY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK


FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8PM TONIGHT

July 14th, 2014 at 3:51 pm by under General Talk, On the Main Site, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

* FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

* MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
  SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST WILL
  OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TUESDAY INTO
  WEDNESDAY. WHILE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AT
  ANYTIME…THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE LATE TUESDAY INTO
  WEDNESDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4
  INCHES…BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

* FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN…BUT SOME SMALL STREAM
  FLOODING MAY OCCUR AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

 

flolod

 


Severe Storms Possible Today

July 14th, 2014 at 5:27 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Our area has been placed under a “slight” risk for severe storms today by the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, OK.

Severe T'Storm Outlook

Severe T’Storm Outlook

temp3

Wind Damage Potential

As the Pinpoint Weather Team has been stating over the last few days… our atmosphere will be primed for strong to severe storms to pop-up over the next few days.   As for today… humidity will build and some peeks of hazy sun should allow for the atmosphere to become unstable… as a piece of energy in the upper-levels lifts through southern New England it will act as the focus for storms to begin developing through the afternoon.  Torrential downpours and damaging winds are the biggest concerns with these storms.

temp2

Tornado Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has also placed areas just to our southwest under a slight (2%) risk of a tornado.

Locally, the National Weather Service office in Taunton has issued a “FLASH FLOOD WATCH” for Connecticut and Western MA. These areas are most at risk of seeing rounds of thunderstorms that could contain very heavy rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.  Some storms could dump up to 3″+ of rain over the next few days.

temp 1

The risk of flash flooding will likely spread east into RI/SE MA, especially later Tuesday into early Wednesday.

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Active Weather Pattern This Week With Strong Thunderstorms

July 13th, 2014 at 7:15 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

A number of weather parameters will come together over the next 2-3 days to produce showers and thunderstorms. Some of these have the potential to be strong to severe. The combination of high humidity, a slow moving cold front and unusually strong winds in the upper levels (30, 000 feeet, jet stream level) of the atmosphere will come into play to produce the stormy weather “at times“. There are still timing and location uncertainties for each day…but confidence is high that each day, Monday thru Wednesday, there will be the risk of storms… Meanwhile, for this evening, strong thunderstorms just south of the Mass Pike, are expected to weaken as they approach after 1opm. Stay tuned to further forecasts.

 

stormsd


Periods of Heavy Rain, Strong T-Storms Monday into Wednesday

July 13th, 2014 at 8:13 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data coming in continues to support the threat of showers and strong thunderstorms Monday into Wednesday.  One change I am noticing is the tendency for the front to slow down; this translates to the showers lasting longer into Wednesday afternoon, rather than wrapping up in the morning.

MONDAY: Periods of showers and strong thunderstorms will move through.  This still does NOT look like a washout, but Tony will look at more data Sunday night to see if this changes.

*RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING: MODERATE

*RISK OF DAMAGING WIND: LOW TO MODERATE (Highest for northern and western Rhode Island)

 

TUESDAY: Another humid day with the chance of showers and strong thunderstorms.  The showers and thunderstorms look like they will be more frequent than on Monday, especially by the afternoon.  The heaviest of the rain may fall Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

*RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING: MODERATE TO HIGH

*RISK OF DAMAGING WIND: LOW TO MODERATE

 

WEDNESDAY: This axis of heaviest rainfall looks like it pulls through on Wednesday morning; therefore the Wednesday morning commute could be a rough one.  As mentioned above, the front responsible for the showers and T-storms looks like it will take its time moving through southern New England.  Therefore, some showers and thunderstorms are still possible through out the afternoon.

*RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING: MODERATE TO HIGH

*RISK OF DAMAGING WIND: LOW TO MODERATE

blograin

 

The timing on all of this could change, so stay tuned for adjustments.  Tony will have another look at the data soon. Have a good Sunday! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 


Could be Wet and Wild for First Part of Work Week

July 12th, 2014 at 6:35 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New information continues to come in regarding the showers and thunderstorms for the first part of the work week; this new information is very consistent with previou0s data… it keeps the timing from Monday until about Wednesday morning.

Monday: There will be periods of showers and thunderstorms; some of which could be quite strong bringing heavy downpours and damaging winds.  The difficult part of this forecast is determining whether Monday will be a washout or not.  For now, I will say no washout with a decent amount of dry time mixed in with the rain.  However, one of our computer models is more aggressive and stalls a boundary right over southern New England.  I would like to look at more data before making a final call about whether Monday is a “watch a movie” type of day.

TUESDAY: This looks like the best chance for a washout with periods of showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rain.  Just like Monday, a few of these storms will have the potential of damaging winds and flash flooding.

WEDNESDAY: Showers and thunderstorms are likely at least through the early morning, and then things should gradually improve during the afternoon.  It is THIS part of the forecast that is subject to the most change; if the front speeds up by a few hours, Wednesday afternoon could be a nice day.  If the front slows down by a few hours, Wednesday could end up a washout.

We will keep fine tuning the timing and details over the next few days. -Pete Mangione

 

 


Storm Potential Early Next Week….

July 11th, 2014 at 11:51 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist  Tony Petrarca

While it is still several days down the road, our computer guidance data continues to indicate the “potential”  for severe thunderstorms from Update New York into New England next Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, many “atmosheric parameters” need to come together for this to happen…bottom line, stay tuned.  This is still 3-4 days out which means it is to early to talk specifics….but our weather team just wanted to give you an early head up on this “potential”  Meanwhile this weekend looks beautiful so enjoy. Pete Mangione will have updates this weekend and I will be back on air Sunday Night with more information.

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Unsettled Weather Early Next Week…

July 10th, 2014 at 4:13 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon from chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

A significant shift south of the storm track (jet stream) will bring much cooler weather to the eastern half of the county, especially the Midwest. However, here in in New England, the medium range outlook (6-10days) will feature seasonably warm air, but no major heat.

The major shift in the jet stream for early next week (Monday Tuesday) will bring a higher risk of showers and thunderstorms for our area. The map below represents temperature anomolies. The darkest blue color  depicts where cooler air will be. Meanwhile hot dry air will build in the west.

 

 

 

610temp.new


Microburst Confirmed in Boston Suburb Monday Evening

July 8th, 2014 at 12:43 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The National Weather Service storm survey team says it was a powerful microburst that caused the wind damage in the Boston suburb of Bedford around 5:45pm yesterday.  A severe thunderstorm hit the area during the evening rush hour, carving a path of damage across the center of Bedford that was 2.5 miles long, and a half mile wide, uprooting trees and power lines.  The storm survey team estimates winds were 90-100mph in the microburst, which leads to straight line wind damage.

Microburst Diagram

Microburst Diagram

The storm blew down and uprooted approximately 50-70 trees–most of them were healthy pine trees towering some 100ft high! Some of the trees landed on houses and caused significant damage.  Here are some pictures from storm spotters in Massachusetts yesterday.

Woburn, MA

Woburn, MA

Winchester, MA

Winchester, MA

Lunenberg, MA

Lunenberg, MA

Despite many images of what appeared to be a funnel cloud in the Medford and Malden areas around 6pm, there were no eyewitness reports of any tornadoes.

While the heat and humidity build this afternoon, an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm can’t be ruled out… though we don’t expect the activitiy to be as widespread as yesterday around Boston.  Here’s where the NOAA Storm Prediction Center is indicating the highest risk of severe storms will be–with damaging winds being the biggest threat.

 

temp 1

Severe Thunderstorm Potential

Probability of a Tornado

Probability of a Tornado

Probability of Wind Damage

Probability of Wind Damage

 

 


Arthur Just 8th July Cyclone on Record for New England

July 7th, 2014 at 12:55 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

History shows just how rare it is for New England to see impacts from a tropical system in July.  According to the Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC), Arthur was just the 8th time since 1900.  temp 2

Arthur dumped more than 8″ of rain in parts of New Bedford and an average of 2-4″ across  RI.  In addition, tropical storm force winds were recorded on Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. temp 1

The NERFC says other notable July cyclones in our area were:

Bertha on July 13, 1996 and Brenda or July 30, 1960

 


Arthur’s Gone….But We’re Always Watching The Tropics

July 5th, 2014 at 8:14 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The remnants of Hurricane Arthur are now over New Brunswick in Canada.  Maine saw quite a bit of rain today from “Post Tropical Storm Arthur.

Arthur_IR_650x366

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So, one named storm down.  The next up is Bertha on this year’s list of names.

Hurricane_Names_650x366

In the Atlantic Basin, there’s really nothing anywhere that would form into a tropical system anytime soon.

Tropics_Wide_650x366

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Friday rain caused a lot of problems, but it wasn’t all bad

July 5th, 2014 at 8:24 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We never want to see a situation like we did in New Bedford with almost 8 inches of rain.  That is WAY too much rain at one time.   A lot of our viewing area was a little more fortunate, with rainfall generally between 2 and 4.5 inches.  (That’s still a lot in one day!)

So what is the silver lining in the Friday rain? It did bring some much needed rainfall to a lot of lawns and gardens, which really needed it.  The graphic below uses rainfall since June 1 at TF Green Airport.  Notice how we turned a deficit into a surplus! -Pete Mangione

Pete_Blog_Water


Hurricane Arthur — 11pm Friday Update

July 5th, 2014 at 12:02 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 11pm Friday evening, Arthur was still a hurricane; although barely.  It was looking pretty ragged in satellite pictures and winds are barely of hurricane strength.

 Arthur_Vis2_650x366

Arthur was about 75miles ESE of Chatham, MA around 11pm and was continuing its rapid pace across the North Atlantic toward the Canadian Maritimes.  It’s losing tropical characteristics; instead becoming an extratropical or non-tropical storm. 

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Hurricane Arthur 8pm Friday Update

July 4th, 2014 at 7:53 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

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As of 8pm, Hurricane Arthur remains a hurricane with winds of 80mph.  He’s really picking up steam and will pass to the southeast of Nantucket in the next several hours.  Winds are picking up on the Cape and Islands and we’ll likely see a period of gusty winds as well.

 

Arthur_Vis2_650x366

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Arthur 5pm Update

July 4th, 2014 at 5:17 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Arthur losing some intensity…now a 80mph hurricane.  Arthur will pass approximately 50 miles to the southeast of Nantucket early Saturday morning.

Arthur_Radar_650x366

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Flash Flood Emergency for New Beford Area

July 4th, 2014 at 4:44 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A rare Flash Flood Emergency has been issued by the National Weather Service for the New Bedford area.  More than 5inches of rain has fallen since 1pm and a total of 8-10″ is expected before it’s done. 

If you live in a flood prone area, seek higher ground now.  Never cross a flooded roadway.  Travel is not recommended except for fleeing flood waters.

Storm_Radar2_650x366