Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca

Hmmm….I thought that headline would get your attention, but yes, it will happen. HOWEVER, I am refering to the the high mountains of northern New England.  The map below is one of our high resolution computer models called the RPM.  It  shows small accumulations in the Green and White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire, as well as far Northern Maine. It would not surprise me to see some wet snow mixing with cold rain Saturday Night in the Berkshires of western Masssachusetts.  For most of us its a cold rain Saturday.

RPM Snowfall Accumulation Forecast Saturday Night Into Sunday Morning…

NOAA just issued their hurricane forecast and they are predicting another active season.

The forecast calls for a 70% chance of the following occurring.

Named Storms: 13 to 20  (Seasonal Average is 12)

Hurricanes: 7 to 11 (Seasonal Average is 6)

Major Hurricanes: 3 to 6 (Seasonal Average is 3)

Hurricanes feed off of warm ocean water, and indeed the ocean water in the tropical Atlantic is warmer than average.  In years that we are under the influence of El Nino, hurricane season is often relatively quiet.  This hurricane season, El Nino is not expected to be present which could also lead to the development of more hurricanes.  (Photo below courtesy NOAA)

 What does this mean locally for southern New England?

Obviously, a more active hurricane season increases the probabiliy that Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts would be hit by a hurricane or tropical storm.  But just because the probability increases doesn’t mean it will actually happen.  There are many hurricanes and tropical storms that form in the Atlantic and never make it to southern New England. 

In addition, the “Major Hurricance” forecast can be a little misleading.  “Major Hurricanes” are defined as being a category 3 or higher with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.   While major hurricanes can be devastating, a direct hit from a weaker hurricane can be much worse than a glancing blow or miss from a major hurricane.  Technically, Sandy was not even a hurricane when it made landfall in New Jersey.  But it certainly felt like a major storm for people living on the Rhode Island coast, and especially those in Westerly.  

The bottom line? It’s not always about the number and size of the storms.  The exact track is very important too.  Unfortunately, we don’t have the technology to predict the exact tracks of storms months in advance.  -Pete Mangione

An unsettled weather pattern again today as a warm front remains draped over south central New England.  That front represents the boundary between warm and humid air to the south and cooler, ocean air to the northeast.  It will also act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop today, in fact we’ve already been seeing some this morning.

While the whole day won’t be a “washout”, we will need to watch again later this afternoon and especially this evening for the potential for strong and severe thunderstorms.  The highest risk will be over western New England, but a few storms containing torrential rain and strong winds will be possible around here, too, especially if we get some breaks of sun.

Thunderstorm outlook Thursday, May 23

Tornado Outlook Thursday, May 23

Parts of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma also have the potential for more severe thunderstorms with a moderate risk of those storms producing tornadoes.

Our best shot at getting widespread rain/thunder will come after 7pm this evening and continuing through the night.

  The Severe Storms Prediction Center has issued their outlook for today and Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut are all included in the “Slight Risk” area for t’storms.

From the Severe Storms Prediction Center: Convective Outlook for Wednesday

       The primary threats with any potential storms will be from damaging straight line wind gusts and hail as well as torrential downpours and frequent lightning.  With that said, the SPC also released their outlook for a tornado threat  for today

From the Severe Storms Prediction Center: Tornado Outlook for Wednesday

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   While the chances are low, there is the slight chance for an isolated tornado in Connecticut and Massachusetts up to the Rhode Island border.  Obviously during the afternoon and evening today, we need to be alert!

-T.J. Del Santo

Good Morning…actually very early morning (12:18am)…

Still analyzing the data from the Moore Oklahoma Tornado. The doppler radar technology we use in our weather department is state of the art when it comes to tracking severe weather.  One feature we use is called “X Vision”, in which we can take cross sections of severe thunderstorms and look inside of them in real time. Keep in mind, tornadoes form inside of severe thunderstorms only. Looking inside of these huge storms gives us a wealth of information about the inner structure of the storm, and clues us in on things like hail, tornado, and wind (microbursts) potential. This in turn allows us to give you specific and advanced warnings of dangerous weather headed your way. Stay tuned to Eyewitness News during severe thunderstorm season to see how we use “X-Vision” technology.

The image below is a dramtic 3D look at the Moore Oklahoma thunderstorm and tornado. You can clearly see the funnel touching the ground just outside of Moore.  Other clues are the hieght of the storm (50, 000 feet !!)..along with the location of large hail.

 Thanks for logging on….Tony R Petrarca

Severe thunderstorm watch now in effect for parts of our area until 9pm. Providence and Kent Counties in RI are under the Watch…communities such as Providence, Cranston, Warwick, Woonsocket, Pawtucket, Burrillville, Foster, Glocester, West Warwick and Coventry are included in this watch.

Again, Watch means the POTENTIAL for Severe weather in these areas.

Rhode Island is not under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but parts of New England have conditions favorable for Severe Storms this afternoon.  Southern Vermont, Western Massachusetts and  Northwestern Connecticut are under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm. 

Severe thunderstorms can bring torrential rain, large hail, frequent lightning and destructive winds.  These storms can still move into Southeastern New England. 

As of 2pm, storms were developing in parts of New York State.  The storms in New Hampshire and central Massachusetts have moved offshore.

-T.J. Del Santo

According to the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, there is a 40% chance that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch could be issued for parts of Southern New England. 

Conditions are becoming favorable for thunderstorms now in New York State to move eastward and into Southern New England.  The strongest of these storms will likely be in Western New England, but some strong to severe storms are possible in our region after 4pm.   If you’re interested, here is the discussion from the SPC.

We will continue to monitor these storms closely.  Again, if these storms do move into our region, the biggest threats are:

• Torrential Rain
• Frequent Lightning
• Large Hail
• Potentially Damaging Wind Gusts

-T.J. Del Santo

The strongest tornado on record in Rhode Island hit a densely populated area of the state back in 1986.  A strengthening thunderstorm tore through western Rhode Island in the late afternoon of August 7, 1986.  Around 5:15pm a tornado emerged from the supercell storm and moved through Cranston and Providence.   Trees were toppled across the two cities, knocking out power for thousands.  Dozens were injured, though no one seriously.

Here’s an eyewitness account: “I was going to go in anyway, ’cause I could see that swirl in the air up there.”

Tree ontop of car immediately following a tornado which ripped through Cranston and Providence, RI in 1986.

  (more…)

As of 11am, thunderstorms were moving in a line from Southern New Hampshire to north of Worcester. 

We expect more thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon… likely further south and west.  Northern Rhode Island could possibly see some thunderstorms later this afternoon and early evening. 

The primary threats with these storms would be

• heavy rain
• frequent lightning
• hail
• potentially damaging wind gusts 

Of course, with the images of the Oklahoma and Texas tornadoes fresh in everyone’s minds, you may wonder about the threat of a twister.  The threat of a tornado with these storms is considered to be very low.  We will watch these storms closely and keep you updated through the afternoon.

-T.J. Del Santo

After Monday’s devastating tornado in Oklahoma, meteorologists in the Southern Plains are keeping an eye on the potential for more severe, potentially tornado producing, storms today.

In fact, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK has parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas under a “Moderate Risk” for severe storms.

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday, May 21

Here’s the forecast for potential tornadoes:

Tornado Probability

The main threat with any storms that develop in this area will be very large hail and strong tornadoes.  There’s also a lower risk for isolated severe thunderstorms in the central Great Lakes and into far western New England.

Locally, a front will be over southern New England today and will act as a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late afternoon and evening.  The greatest risk of seeing any storms would be in northern RI and northern Bristol County, MA.  Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning are all possible.  If you are headed to the ball field today, keep an eye to the sky for changing weather conditions.

RPM Model Valid at 7pm

From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

The pictures from Moore Oklahoma are heartbreaking…the damage, incredible, even for Oklahoma, which is no stranger to tornadoes.

The strength, size and duration of this particular tornado is rare. Tornado stength is measured using the Fujita Scale.  Twisters are ranked on a scale from Zero to Five. A zero is the weakest, a five is considered catastrophic. Yesterday’s Moore Oklahoma tornado is estimated to be a 4 or 5 on that scale.  That puts winds up to 200mph or higher. Whole cars are lifted and thrown hundreds of feet.

Latest News On Severe Outbreak Click Here

Damage From More Oklahoma, May 20th, 2013

THE FUJITA TORNADO SCALE

 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, MAY 21st, 2013….

SEVERE RISK AREAS IN YELLOW AND RED, GREEN SHADING REPRESENTS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY BE STRONG BUT NOT SEVERE

RISK POTENTIAL TODAY….

Good Evening …

After a slow start. tornado season continues to become more active last several days. As of this writing a Tornado Warning has been issued for Oklahoma City.  This large weather sysytem will affect our weather next several days, but nothing severe…however, this risk of occasional showers and thuderstorms is expe this week. Many hours however will be rain free too, so not a washout.  This storm across the Plains is helping to draw in high humidity across our area….that in turn will produce dense fog along our south coast Tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issues for the coast from 10pm Tonight thru 10am Tuesday..

Thanks for logging on…….Tony Petrarca

A new report issued by NOAA looks back at how superstorm Sandy was forecast.  Specifically, it focuses on the accuracy of the forecast and the effectiveness of communicating this forecast to the public.  The report is quite lengthy, so I will just focus on a few key points.

What went right

Overall, the report found that the forecast of Sandy’s track and intensity was very accurate.  The report states: “Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) 2 day 6 and 7 forecasts were also highly accurate, giving the first indication that Sandy was a threat to the northeastern United States”.   Over 2 days before Sandy hit, the National Hurricane Center predicted significant storm surge for parts of the mid Atlantic and northeast.   In addition, the “left turn” that Sandy took back towards the United States was hinted at by several computer models almost a week before the storm struck.  Below is an image of Sandy’s track courtesy of NOAA’s report:

What needs improvement:   Although the report showed that most of the general public felt that Sandy’s forecast was accurate, it did mention the need for improvement in regards to the storm surge impacts.  Some coastal residents said they didn’t realize the storm surge would be as bad as it was, and felt the flooding happened faster than they anticipated.

The report suggests that people seem to respond better to impact forecasts rather than technical forecasts.  For instance, more time should be spent using clear and understandable language instructing people about how to protect life and property.  Along the same lines, less time should be spent explaining the technicalities of the storm (whether the storm is a hurricane, a tropical storm, or a nor’easter).

Below is a graphic that was issued by the National Weather Service as Sandy was approaching.   This was considered a patricularly effective graphic in getting accross the urgency of the situation without getting bogged down in technical details.  In the future, expect to see more graphics like this when a serious storm is approaching. -Pete Mangione

Good Evening ….

A busy weather day this past Thursday with confirmed Tornado in Stoughton, Mass and a funnel cloud in North Smithfield RI.  What is the difference?  A funnel cloud is a rotating vortex of air that is suspended above the ground, but never makes contact.  The photo below is an archive picture from the Midwest and not the North Smithfield funnel…..If the funnel cloud makes contact with the ground, it  is then classified as a Tornado.

Here  is a link to the video of the North Smithfield funnel cloud….Its difficult to tell if the funnel makes contact with the ground or not…If it did, it was just for a few seconds.   What do you think….does the funnel make contact with the ground?

http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/local_news/blackstone/funnel-cloud-forms-near-n-smithfield

Below is an archive picture of a tornado…clearly here, the funnel cloud is touching the ground

Here is the video link of the actual  tornado in Stoughton Mass. Watch closely and you can see the swirling column of air (estimated at 60-86 mph) hitting the ground.

http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/local_news/se_mass/tornado-touches-down-in-stoughton

Thanks for logging On !    Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Here is another brief update on our water situation.  As Michelle mentioned in her previous post, we put a little dent in our water deficit yesterday.  Today, we put in a slightly bigger dent!  Here are how some of the numbers break down:

Rain Deficit Since March 1: 5.52 inches

Rain on Wednesday: 0.15″

Rain so Far Thursday (as of 3PM) : 0.33″

So we are not even done with Thursday yet, and we have already doubled Wednesday’s total!  That’s not a huge amount of rain, but it certainly helps with lawns, gardens, and agriculture.  We don’t want to get too much rain all at once.   Long duration heavy rains can often do more harm than good.

There is a good chance that will add to this “dent” in the deficit with more rain on the way Thursday afternoon and evening.

-Pete Mangione

After a 2 week dry stretch it was a welcome relief to gardens, lawns and allergy sufferers to see some scattered showers yesterday and again today.  However, it’s not enough to put a significant dent in our rainfall deficit.  As of today, we are nearly 6″ below normal for rainfall since March 1st at TF Green Airport.

For most of RI, the rainfall totals from yesterday were pretty measly. 

And today will be more of the same.  Low pressure will creep over New England as it continues to weaken, bringing occasional showers, quick downpours and an isolated thunderstorm.  There will be long stretches of dry weather in between the showers and even some hazy, humid sun at times.  Rainfall amounts will generally be under 1/4″.

Showers end this evening and we’ll have a dry day tomorrow.  In fact, it will be one of the warmest days so far this spring, with some inland spots nearing 80!

I’ts another storm-free day in southern New England, with our biggest concern being how far north low clouds and fog make it onshore through the early afternoon.  It sure has been a nice–nearly 2 week–stretch of quiet, dry weather in New England…. but now the area of high pressure that’s been providing the stable atmosphere is moving out and unsettled weather will be moving in.   And as much as most of us like the sunshine, we could really use some rain.  Here’s a look at the latest information from the US Drought Monitor.  It has RI, CT and and central and western MA under “abnormally dry” conditions.

US Drought Monitor as of Apr 30

And it’s no wonder… since the start of meteorological spring on March 1st we have an almost 5.5″ rainfall deficit.  It’s less severe in eastern MA due to a coastal storm a few weeks ago that brought heavy rain to that area, while in RI we only saw a few light showers.

It looks like a combination of low pressure tomorrow and Thursday, with several fronts over the weekend will help put a dent in that deficit.  We’ll see scattered showers, with some embedded heavier downpours starting by afternoon on Wednesday… and we’ll keep at least a chance of showers in the forecast into Sunday.  Here’s a forecast for how much rainfall we could see through the next 7 days…. with about an 1″-1.25″ expected.

Rainfall Totals Next 7 Days

Good evening ….

The streak of dry sunny weather will come to an end by mid week.  That is actually good news considering how dry it has been.  We have been abnormally dry of late.  Infact, since March 1st rainfall is running 5 inches below average.

After some clouds and morning fog Tuesday, sunshine will warm things up nicely by afternoon. The forecast map below are the high temperatures by 3pm. Inland areas around 70-75 with the coast in the mid to upper 60s due to light sea breeze.

Rain arrives by Wednesday…Thanks for logging on !!    Tony Petrarca

We’re welcoming in the month of May with a continuation of the dry, sunny and seasonable conditions that we had at the end of April.  Our weather is still under the control of an area of high pressure that is anchored across New England, bringing a delightful stretch of storm-free days.  We’re in what we call an “omega Block”.  I’ve highlighted it in red on the 500mb map from the 06z NAM computer guidance this morning:

Omega Block

Notice the resemblance to the greek letter omega:

Greek Letter Omega

“Blocking” means that there’s a stagnation in the weather pattern where there’s  the same type of weather for days or even weeks.  For New England, which is under the omega block, it means dry weather and light wind for an extended period of time while rain and clouds are common on either side of the omega block. This kind of pattern makes forecasting easier since you can pinpoint areas that will be dominated by dry or rainy weather for several days.

So when will the pattern break?  Some of our computer models see some signs of change by late next week… though even then, it doesn’t look like a complete break down of the ridging in New England.  At this point, we’re looking at likely warmer than average and drier than average conditions in our area through possibly May 10.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Weather pattern that we are in will continue to feature mostly dry air along with near normal temperatures. Rainfall for the month of April is running around 2.55″ below average. Widespread rainfall is not in the forecast next 5-7 days. Notice the forecast high temperatures for Tuesday, mid and upper 60s inland.  Slight sea breezes this week will keep the shores a bit cooler.   Thanks for logging on to wpri.com.  Have a nice evening !

Tony Petrarca

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According to the official stats at TF Green, we are running a rainfall deficit.  Now, it might not seem like it because PARTS of the past several weekends have been rainy.  In addition, we just went through a raw and rainy day on Tuesday.  But when we add up the actual AMOUNT of rain over the past month and a half, it just hasn’t added up to much.  (For those of you in eastern Mass and Cape Cod, you have obviously received a lot more rain than those of us in Rhode Island.)

Let’s look at the numbers for March:

ACTUAL RAINFALL IN MARCH: 2.94″

NORMAL RAINFALL IN MARCH: 5.01″

RAIN DEFICIT IN MARCH: 2.07″

We were hoping to play catch-up in April, but despite a few miserable, rainy days, that never really happened.

ACTUAL RAINFALL IN APRIL (UP TO APRIL 24): 1.64″

NORMAL RAINFALL IN APRIL (UP TO APRIL 24): 3.59″

RAIN DEFICIT IN APRIL (UP TO APRIL 24): 1.95″

According to the US Drought Monitor, parts of Rhode Island are in the “Abnormally Dry” category (shown by the yellow shading).  This is one level BELOW the “Moderate Drought” category. 

 So while we are not in an urgent situation just yet, we could sure use some more rain! Unfortunately, there is not a lot of rain showing up over the next 6 to 7 days.  We might be able to squeeze out a few showers, but nothing that substantial. 

The good news? If we are going to have some rain-free weather, we might as well have it on the weekend.  Indeed, this weekend looks rain free for all of your outdoor plans.

-Pete Mangione

Good Evening  from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..

Certainly not feeling like late April, almost May Today.  Temperatures stayed in 40s all day. Normal high temperature this time of year is around 63.  Today’s chilly air did not come from Canada, but rather of the cold Atlantic waters. No surprise this time year to have the water still cold.  But even though the ocean is cold, the late April sun is strong enough to warm things up nicely….the key in getting the warmth is not only having the sun out (obviously), but also a wind that comes in off the land (example: west or northwest breeze), rather than the water.

Look at the forecast map below.  See what afternoon sun and a  land breeze for most of the day can do….Highs Wednesday Afternoon recover 65-70…that almost 25 degrees warmer than Today!   A late day sea breeze will knock the temperatures back down along south shore…regardless a much milder day on the way…enjoy.

There’s not a whole lot of good things to say about today’s weather.  It will be an UGLY day with low clouds, drizzle and showers continuing through the day and night.  Temperatures will barely budge, with highs only in the mid to upper 40s and a stiff northeast wind making it “feel” –the windchill–  in the 30s.  Brrr!

In terms of rainfall, we’re looking at mostly light amounts across RI–generally under 1/4″.  However, the amounts will be more impressive over southeastern MA… possibly nearing 1/2″ in New Bedford and as much as 1″ to 2″ across parts of the Cape and Islands.  The culprit is an area of low pressure that will track south and east of Nantucket.

Accum rain by 8am Wednesday

The storm departs by early tomorrow morning (before 9am) and then the good stuff begins!  We have a huge turnaround tomorrow… we should break into sunshine through the morning, and that–combined with a shift in the wind to the southwest–will push our temperatures up to near 70 inland and 60s at the coast.

RPM Model Forecast Highs for Wednesday

A rather unimpressive cold front will sweep through Wednesday night with a passing shower followed by a large area of high pressure that will sit over New England and keep us storm-free from Thursday into the weekend.  There are even signs that high could continue to control the weather into early next week.  Temperatures under the high will be seasonable–a comfortable low to mid 60s.

One of the nice things about spring is that often we don’t need to heat or cool our homes very much.  Our wallets like this as our monthly bills tend to be lower! However, you may need to crank the heat up a little bit over the next several nights.  Some of our suburbs could be close to the freezing mark tonight and then again on Sunday night.  However, with daytime highs in the 60s and 50s we won’t need much heating (or cooling) for most of the day. 

Below is a look at a temperatures forecast for around midnight tonight; if you have plans to stay out late, make sure you bring the jacket! -Pete Mangione

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

I am tracking an approaching cold front which has produced a few showers early this evening. The trend will be for “off and on” showers early Tonight, followed by a steady rain and even some thunder after midnight.  Some slow improvements Saturday.  My forecast map below shows rain (areas of green) extending into early Saturday morning. However, as the cold front sweeps offshore, rain should end from west to east by 10am.  The sun returns by late morning, and especially by afternoon. Bottom line, 2^nd half of Saturday looks better than the 1^st half

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….

Gusty South winds on Friday will bring in milder and humid air…however, notice on our forecast map below, the warmest air will be found well inland, away from south shore. A south wind means the air will be coming in from the chilly Atlantic waters, so the south shore will be 10 degrees cooler, but northern suburbs stay mild with less ocean influence.

Also with higher humidity levels moving in Friday, some areas of fog is likely early. Expecting occasional light showers or sprinkles, but the day as a whole does not looks like a washout. The more widespread heavier rain will arrive later Friday Night into Saturday morning..

Temperatures next 4 days will feature some ups and downs, with today being one of the “up” days.

Cold front moved through early this morning, bringing clouds and a few scattered showers, but not a lot of cold air, especially for today.

In fact, temperatures this morning were about 20° warmer than yesterday at dawn… add sunshine for most of the day, and you’re left with afternoon temperatures climbing well into the 60s–even at the coast.  The combination of sunshine, mild air and lighter winds makes today my PICK OF THE WEEK!

After a comfortable evening temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by dawn.  Thursday still looks good for outdoor plans with a sunny start and then increasing afternoon and evening clouds.  It will be a little cooler with highs near 61.  A warm front will lift through Thursday night, unleashing humid and mild air for Friday.  Gusty winds ahead of a cold front will lead to rough waters on the Bay and a chillier feel.  While there may be a spotty shower during the day on Friday, a soaking rain will hold off until Friday night.  Around a 1/4-3/4″ of rain expected with this strong cold front, even perhaps a rumble of thunder.

24hr Accum rain by Saturday PM

Our computer models are still hinting at the rain extending into Saturday morning with clearing skies in the afternoon.  Cooler air will settle in for early next week behind the front.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca….

Mildest air this week will be found inland, away from the south shore.  High temperatures Tuesday will reach the lower 60s  away from the ocean.  A south wind will keep the immediate shoreline in 50s.  Even milder air Wednesday as temperatures climb to 65-70.

The weather for the Boston Marathon on Monday will be ideal for the runners.  It will start out in the upper 30s to low 40s during the morning; afternoon temperatures should be in the mid 50s. Skies will be partly cloudy and conditions will dry.  Not too warm and not too cool…that’s all you can ask for when running 26 miles!

Obviously, if you are going to watch the race or are headed to the Red Sox game, you might want it a little bit warmer.  It is going to be hard to get VERY warm temperatures because of breezes coming in from the east and southeast by the afternoon.  This breeze in Boston brings the cooler ocean air into the city…so the light jacket will be a good thing to have on you tomorrow.  Below is a temperature forecast for around noon tomorrow (Monday).  Enjoy! -Pete Mangoine