Still analyzing the data from the Moore Oklahoma Tornado. The doppler radar technology we use in our weather department is state of the art when it comes to tracking severe weather.  One feature we use is called “X Vision”, in which we can take cross sections of severe thunderstorms and look inside of them in real time. Keep in mind, tornadoes form inside of severe thunderstorms only. Looking inside of these huge storms gives us a wealth of information about the inner structure of the storm, and clues us in on things like hail, tornado, and wind (microbursts) potential. This in turn allows us to give you specific and advanced warnings of dangerous weather headed your way. Stay tuned to Eyewitness News during severe thunderstorm season to see how we use “X-Vision” technology.

The image below is a dramtic 3D look at the Moore Oklahoma thunderstorm and tornado. You can clearly see the funnel touching the ground just outside of Moore.  Other clues are the hieght of the storm (50, 000 feet !!)..along with the location of large hail.

 Thanks for logging on….Tony R Petrarca

Again, Watch means the POTENTIAL for Severe weather in these areas.

Severe thunderstorms can bring torrential rain, large hail, frequent lightning and destructive winds.  These storms can still move into Southeastern New England. 

As of 2pm, storms were developing in parts of New York State.  The storms in New Hampshire and central Massachusetts have moved offshore.

-T.J. Del Santo

Conditions are becoming favorable for thunderstorms now in New York State to move eastward and into Southern New England.  The strongest of these storms will likely be in Western New England, but some strong to severe storms are possible in our region after 4pm.   If you’re interested, here is the discussion from the SPC.

We will continue to monitor these storms closely.  Again, if these storms do move into our region, the biggest threats are:

• Torrential Rain
• Frequent Lightning
• Large Hail
• Potentially Damaging Wind Gusts

-T.J. Del Santo

Here’s an eyewitness account: “I was going to go in anyway, ’cause I could see that swirl in the air up there.”

Tree ontop of car immediately following a tornado which ripped through Cranston and Providence, RI in 1986.

Another eyewitness describes what he saw: “We came around the corner and just looked up… next thing we know, the wind flipped it (the truck) right over.”

A truck flipped by the 1986 Cranston/Providence tornado.

 A house on Hillwood Street in Cranston was literally blown off its foundation.  From the outside of the house, you could see down into the basement.  Donna Santos, who lived in the house, spoke to a WPRI-TV reporter back in 1986:

“I thought I was going to die…that’s all I thought..I have a little 3 year old daughter.

House on Hillwood Street in Cranston blown off of its foundation during the 1986 tornado.

That house was torn down…another house sits on the land today.

Some of the worst damage occurred on Stewart Street at the site of the Fulford Manufacturing Building in Providence.   This is behind what is now Crossroads Rhode Island (the old YMCA building).   Eyewitnesses say the twister hit the building and ripped off the top off the century-old brick structure.  Machinery on the inside was exposed and bricks were scattered everywhere on the outside.  Today, there is a parking lot where the building once stood.  The company relocated to East Providence.

Fulford Manufacturing Building after the 1986 tornado hit it.

The tornado continued northward toward Orms Street where it dissipated.   It was considered an F-2 on the Fujita Tornado Scale with winds between 113 and 157mph.

Approximate path of the 1986 Cranston/Providence Tornado

The next day, twisters struck again…this time in Northern Rhode Island.  In Burrillville and North Smithfield, trees and debris were scattered everywhere.  This tornado was an F-1 with winds up to 112mph.

An Eyewitness described it: “This was short-lived.  Gone as soon as you were able to recognize what was going on.”

Tornadoes are rare in Rhode Island and are usually weak.  On that day in 1986, however, many people saw first-hand the destructive nature of these storms.

We expect more thunderstorms to develop through the afternoon… likely further south and west.  Northern Rhode Island could possibly see some thunderstorms later this afternoon and early evening. 

The primary threats with these storms would be

• heavy rain
• frequent lightning
• hail
• potentially damaging wind gusts 

Of course, with the images of the Oklahoma and Texas tornadoes fresh in everyone’s minds, you may wonder about the threat of a twister.  The threat of a tornado with these storms is considered to be very low.  We will watch these storms closely and keep you updated through the afternoon.

-T.J. Del Santo

In fact, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, OK has parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas under a “Moderate Risk” for severe storms.

Severe Weather Outlook for Tuesday, May 21

Here’s the forecast for potential tornadoes:

Tornado Probability

The main threat with any storms that develop in this area will be very large hail and strong tornadoes.  There’s also a lower risk for isolated severe thunderstorms in the central Great Lakes and into far western New England.

Locally, a front will be over southern New England today and will act as a focus for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late afternoon and evening.  The greatest risk of seeing any storms would be in northern RI and northern Bristol County, MA.  Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds and lightning are all possible.  If you are headed to the ball field today, keep an eye to the sky for changing weather conditions.

RPM Model Valid at 7pm

The pictures from Moore Oklahoma are heartbreaking…the damage, incredible, even for Oklahoma, which is no stranger to tornadoes.

The strength, size and duration of this particular tornado is rare. Tornado stength is measured using the Fujita Scale.  Twisters are ranked on a scale from Zero to Five. A zero is the weakest, a five is considered catastrophic. Yesterday’s Moore Oklahoma tornado is estimated to be a 4 or 5 on that scale.  That puts winds up to 200mph or higher. Whole cars are lifted and thrown hundreds of feet.

Latest News On Severe Outbreak Click Here

Damage From More Oklahoma, May 20th, 2013

THE FUJITA TORNADO SCALE

 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY, MAY 21st, 2013….

SEVERE RISK AREAS IN YELLOW AND RED, GREEN SHADING REPRESENTS GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY BE STRONG BUT NOT SEVERE

RISK POTENTIAL TODAY….

Good Evening …

After a slow start. tornado season continues to become more active last several days. As of this writing a Tornado Warning has been issued for Oklahoma City.  This large weather sysytem will affect our weather next several days, but nothing severe…however, this risk of occasional showers and thuderstorms is expe this week. Many hours however will be rain free too, so not a washout.  This storm across the Plains is helping to draw in high humidity across our area….that in turn will produce dense fog along our south coast Tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issues for the coast from 10pm Tonight thru 10am Tuesday..

Thanks for logging on…….Tony Petrarca

What went right

Overall, the report found that the forecast of Sandy’s track and intensity was very accurate.  The report states: “Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) 2 day 6 and 7 forecasts were also highly accurate, giving the first indication that Sandy was a threat to the northeastern United States”.   Over 2 days before Sandy hit, the National Hurricane Center predicted significant storm surge for parts of the mid Atlantic and northeast.   In addition, the “left turn” that Sandy took back towards the United States was hinted at by several computer models almost a week before the storm struck.  Below is an image of Sandy’s track courtesy of NOAA’s report:

What needs improvement:   Although the report showed that most of the general public felt that Sandy’s forecast was accurate, it did mention the need for improvement in regards to the storm surge impacts.  Some coastal residents said they didn’t realize the storm surge would be as bad as it was, and felt the flooding happened faster than they anticipated.

The report suggests that people seem to respond better to impact forecasts rather than technical forecasts.  For instance, more time should be spent using clear and understandable language instructing people about how to protect life and property.  Along the same lines, less time should be spent explaining the technicalities of the storm (whether the storm is a hurricane, a tropical storm, or a nor’easter).

Below is a graphic that was issued by the National Weather Service as Sandy was approaching.   This was considered a patricularly effective graphic in getting accross the urgency of the situation without getting bogged down in technical details.  In the future, expect to see more graphics like this when a serious storm is approaching. -Pete Mangione

A busy weather day this past Thursday with confirmed Tornado in Stoughton, Mass and a funnel cloud in North Smithfield RI.  What is the difference?  A funnel cloud is a rotating vortex of air that is suspended above the ground, but never makes contact.  The photo below is an archive picture from the Midwest and not the North Smithfield funnel…..If the funnel cloud makes contact with the ground, it  is then classified as a Tornado.

Here  is a link to the video of the North Smithfield funnel cloud….Its difficult to tell if the funnel makes contact with the ground or not…If it did, it was just for a few seconds.   What do you think….does the funnel make contact with the ground?

http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/local_news/blackstone/funnel-cloud-forms-near-n-smithfield

Below is an archive picture of a tornado…clearly here, the funnel cloud is touching the ground

Here is the video link of the actual  tornado in Stoughton Mass. Watch closely and you can see the swirling column of air (estimated at 60-86 mph) hitting the ground.

http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/local_news/se_mass/tornado-touches-down-in-stoughton

Thanks for logging On !    Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Rain Deficit Since March 1: 5.52 inches

Rain on Wednesday: 0.15″

Rain so Far Thursday (as of 3PM) : 0.33″

So we are not even done with Thursday yet, and we have already doubled Wednesday’s total!  That’s not a huge amount of rain, but it certainly helps with lawns, gardens, and agriculture.  We don’t want to get too much rain all at once.   Long duration heavy rains can often do more harm than good.

There is a good chance that will add to this “dent” in the deficit with more rain on the way Thursday afternoon and evening.

-Pete Mangione

For most of RI, the rainfall totals from yesterday were pretty measly. 

And today will be more of the same.  Low pressure will creep over New England as it continues to weaken, bringing occasional showers, quick downpours and an isolated thunderstorm.  There will be long stretches of dry weather in between the showers and even some hazy, humid sun at times.  Rainfall amounts will generally be under 1/4″.

Showers end this evening and we’ll have a dry day tomorrow.  In fact, it will be one of the warmest days so far this spring, with some inland spots nearing 80!

US Drought Monitor as of Apr 30

And it’s no wonder… since the start of meteorological spring on March 1st we have an almost 5.5″ rainfall deficit.  It’s less severe in eastern MA due to a coastal storm a few weeks ago that brought heavy rain to that area, while in RI we only saw a few light showers.

It looks like a combination of low pressure tomorrow and Thursday, with several fronts over the weekend will help put a dent in that deficit.  We’ll see scattered showers, with some embedded heavier downpours starting by afternoon on Wednesday… and we’ll keep at least a chance of showers in the forecast into Sunday.  Here’s a forecast for how much rainfall we could see through the next 7 days…. with about an 1″-1.25″ expected.

Rainfall Totals Next 7 Days

The streak of dry sunny weather will come to an end by mid week.  That is actually good news considering how dry it has been.  We have been abnormally dry of late.  Infact, since March 1st rainfall is running 5 inches below average.

After some clouds and morning fog Tuesday, sunshine will warm things up nicely by afternoon. The forecast map below are the high temperatures by 3pm. Inland areas around 70-75 with the coast in the mid to upper 60s due to light sea breeze.

Rain arrives by Wednesday…Thanks for logging on !!    Tony Petrarca

Omega Block

Notice the resemblance to the greek letter omega:

Greek Letter Omega

“Blocking” means that there’s a stagnation in the weather pattern where there’s  the same type of weather for days or even weeks.  For New England, which is under the omega block, it means dry weather and light wind for an extended period of time while rain and clouds are common on either side of the omega block. This kind of pattern makes forecasting easier since you can pinpoint areas that will be dominated by dry or rainy weather for several days.

So when will the pattern break?  Some of our computer models see some signs of change by late next week… though even then, it doesn’t look like a complete break down of the ridging in New England.  At this point, we’re looking at likely warmer than average and drier than average conditions in our area through possibly May 10.

Weather pattern that we are in will continue to feature mostly dry air along with near normal temperatures. Rainfall for the month of April is running around 2.55″ below average. Widespread rainfall is not in the forecast next 5-7 days. Notice the forecast high temperatures for Tuesday, mid and upper 60s inland.  Slight sea breezes this week will keep the shores a bit cooler.   Thanks for logging on to wpri.com.  Have a nice evening !

Tony Petrarca

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Pinpoint Weather Team On Twitter

Let’s look at the numbers for March:

ACTUAL RAINFALL IN MARCH: 2.94″

NORMAL RAINFALL IN MARCH: 5.01″

RAIN DEFICIT IN MARCH: 2.07″

We were hoping to play catch-up in April, but despite a few miserable, rainy days, that never really happened.

ACTUAL RAINFALL IN APRIL (UP TO APRIL 24): 1.64″

NORMAL RAINFALL IN APRIL (UP TO APRIL 24): 3.59″

RAIN DEFICIT IN APRIL (UP TO APRIL 24): 1.95″

According to the US Drought Monitor, parts of Rhode Island are in the “Abnormally Dry” category (shown by the yellow shading).  This is one level BELOW the “Moderate Drought” category. 

 So while we are not in an urgent situation just yet, we could sure use some more rain! Unfortunately, there is not a lot of rain showing up over the next 6 to 7 days.  We might be able to squeeze out a few showers, but nothing that substantial. 

The good news? If we are going to have some rain-free weather, we might as well have it on the weekend.  Indeed, this weekend looks rain free for all of your outdoor plans.

-Pete Mangione

Good Evening  from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..

Certainly not feeling like late April, almost May Today.  Temperatures stayed in 40s all day. Normal high temperature this time of year is around 63.  Today’s chilly air did not come from Canada, but rather of the cold Atlantic waters. No surprise this time year to have the water still cold.  But even though the ocean is cold, the late April sun is strong enough to warm things up nicely….the key in getting the warmth is not only having the sun out (obviously), but also a wind that comes in off the land (example: west or northwest breeze), rather than the water.

Look at the forecast map below.  See what afternoon sun and a  land breeze for most of the day can do….Highs Wednesday Afternoon recover 65-70…that almost 25 degrees warmer than Today!   A late day sea breeze will knock the temperatures back down along south shore…regardless a much milder day on the way…enjoy.

In terms of rainfall, we’re looking at mostly light amounts across RI–generally under 1/4″.  However, the amounts will be more impressive over southeastern MA… possibly nearing 1/2″ in New Bedford and as much as 1″ to 2″ across parts of the Cape and Islands.  The culprit is an area of low pressure that will track south and east of Nantucket.

Accum rain by 8am Wednesday

The storm departs by early tomorrow morning (before 9am) and then the good stuff begins!  We have a huge turnaround tomorrow… we should break into sunshine through the morning, and that–combined with a shift in the wind to the southwest–will push our temperatures up to near 70 inland and 60s at the coast.

RPM Model Forecast Highs for Wednesday

A rather unimpressive cold front will sweep through Wednesday night with a passing shower followed by a large area of high pressure that will sit over New England and keep us storm-free from Thursday into the weekend.  There are even signs that high could continue to control the weather into early next week.  Temperatures under the high will be seasonable–a comfortable low to mid 60s.

Below is a look at a temperatures forecast for around midnight tonight; if you have plans to stay out late, make sure you bring the jacket! -Pete Mangione

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

I am tracking an approaching cold front which has produced a few showers early this evening. The trend will be for “off and on” showers early Tonight, followed by a steady rain and even some thunder after midnight.  Some slow improvements Saturday.  My forecast map below shows rain (areas of green) extending into early Saturday morning. However, as the cold front sweeps offshore, rain should end from west to east by 10am.  The sun returns by late morning, and especially by afternoon. Bottom line, 2^nd half of Saturday looks better than the 1^st half

Gusty South winds on Friday will bring in milder and humid air…however, notice on our forecast map below, the warmest air will be found well inland, away from south shore. A south wind means the air will be coming in from the chilly Atlantic waters, so the south shore will be 10 degrees cooler, but northern suburbs stay mild with less ocean influence.

Also with higher humidity levels moving in Friday, some areas of fog is likely early. Expecting occasional light showers or sprinkles, but the day as a whole does not looks like a washout. The more widespread heavier rain will arrive later Friday Night into Saturday morning..

Cold front moved through early this morning, bringing clouds and a few scattered showers, but not a lot of cold air, especially for today.

In fact, temperatures this morning were about 20° warmer than yesterday at dawn… add sunshine for most of the day, and you’re left with afternoon temperatures climbing well into the 60s–even at the coast.  The combination of sunshine, mild air and lighter winds makes today my PICK OF THE WEEK!

After a comfortable evening temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s by dawn.  Thursday still looks good for outdoor plans with a sunny start and then increasing afternoon and evening clouds.  It will be a little cooler with highs near 61.  A warm front will lift through Thursday night, unleashing humid and mild air for Friday.  Gusty winds ahead of a cold front will lead to rough waters on the Bay and a chillier feel.  While there may be a spotty shower during the day on Friday, a soaking rain will hold off until Friday night.  Around a 1/4-3/4″ of rain expected with this strong cold front, even perhaps a rumble of thunder.

24hr Accum rain by Saturday PM

Our computer models are still hinting at the rain extending into Saturday morning with clearing skies in the afternoon.  Cooler air will settle in for early next week behind the front.

Mildest air this week will be found inland, away from the south shore.  High temperatures Tuesday will reach the lower 60s  away from the ocean.  A south wind will keep the immediate shoreline in 50s.  Even milder air Wednesday as temperatures climb to 65-70.

Obviously, if you are going to watch the race or are headed to the Red Sox game, you might want it a little bit warmer.  It is going to be hard to get VERY warm temperatures because of breezes coming in from the east and southeast by the afternoon.  This breeze in Boston brings the cooler ocean air into the city…so the light jacket will be a good thing to have on you tomorrow.  Below is a temperature forecast for around noon tomorrow (Monday).  Enjoy! -Pete Mangoine

This all started on Thursday when a Coronal Mass Ejection was seen leaving the Sun.

Courtesy NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory: Coronal Mass Ejection Leaving the Sun early Thursday morning.

This happens a lot, but this CME was directed toward Earth and reached us earlier this evening.  When these particles hit our communication satellites, outages can occur. Sometimes, power distribution to our houses can be interrupted, but that is rare.

Courtesy NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory: CME from the Sun.

Again, while the problems these solar ejections can cause are many, the beauty can be unreal!  Streams of color can dance through the night sky.  While usually green, reds and blues have been seen.  The problem here in Southern New England tonight is the clouds. 

Courtesy U.S. Airforce: The Aurora Borealis, or Northern Lights, shines above Bear Lake in Alaska

While it can be difficult to see the Aurora anyway because of our position on the Earth (further North is better), we can still see them if all the conditions are right.  This particular flare of the sun is considered to be a mid-level M-class flare.  It’s 10 times weaker than an X-class flare, but also the strongest so far in 2013.   Even if we can’t see the Aurora tonight, we will have many more chances.  The sun is coming close to its Solar Maximum.  That is the part of the sun’s 11-year cycle when it is the most active.  Numerous sun-spots have cited on the sun, an indication of its activity.  Experts say that the peak to this solar cycle is later this year.

You can follow all of my astronomy and weather updates on Twitter: @tjdelsanto

-T.J. Del Santo

We’re still looking at around 1-1.5″ of rainfall by midnight.  Here’s the latest RPM model run for accumulated rainfall in New England. 

In addition, east-northeast winds will gust up to 35mph at times,  and there could be some localized street flooding… though our rivers and streams should not flood.

Clouds linger through much of the night and early Saturday morning before giving way to sunshine.  The April sun should do the trick warming us up in the afternoon with highs back into the upper 50s.  Sunday will feature lots of sunshine with temperatures just a bit cooler than Saturday.

I’m seeing signs of another stretch of mild weather for the start of school vacation week with highs near 60 Monday and in the mid-60s for Tuesday and Wednesday.  We’ll have to keep an eye on the eventual position of a cold front for the middle of next week… if it stays north of our area then our temperatures will stay mild, if it slips south then we’ll see the cooler temperatures return.

Courtesy: NASA. Satellite picture of Hurricane Sandy in 2013.

Colorado State University has issued their forecast for the 2013 Hurricane Season.  Phillip J. Klotzbach and William Gray have been forecasting hurricane activity in the Atlantic for decades.  They base their forecasts on a number of factors including world-wide weather patterns and sea-surface temperatures.  Hurricane season begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th.

Here is their forecast for the Atlantic Basin in 2013 and the average from 1981-2010. 

• 18 Named Storms, average is 12
• 9 Hurricanes, average is 6.5
• 4 Major Hurricanes, average is 2

The following is from their report which you can read here.

“We anticipate that the 2013 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have enhanced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much or how little activity is predicted.”

Large waves battering the Narragansett coastline during Hurricane Sandy.

We have been directly impacted by tropical systems the past two seasons–Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012.  We are in a period of increased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and while it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict whether we can get hit for a 3rd year in a row, it is best to be prepared.

For more information on how to get storm ready, you can visit our Storm Ready page on wpri.com.  There, you can familiarize yourself with evacuation routes, download preparation lists and learn how to prepare your property for hurricanes.

The Colorado State team’s next hurricane forecast will be released on June 3.  -T.J. Del Santo

With the weather warming up in the coming weeks,its time to start thinking about planting.  Below are average dates for planting in our area.  The average date of our last frost around here is  April 26. Despite milder afternoons, you can still get chilly temperatures late at night and near dawn this time of year.

When determining the best planting dates in the spring for seeds, the date of the last spring frost is important to your success. Other factors can also influence planting dates, including soil temperature, altitude and slope of land, nearby waters, and day length.