In the early morning skies of November 16-18, the Leonid meteors will make their annual appearance. These meteors are famous for reaching ‘storm’ level when thousands of meteors can be seen per hour; however, these kind of shows don’t happen every year. In fact, it’s about every 33 years or so when the number of meteors shows a significant rise.
Tony’s Pinpoint Weather Blog
Typhoon Haiyan will go down in the record books as one of the strongest if not the strongest tropical cyclone ever seen on Earth. A typhoon is a hurricane, but in the western Pacific…they form the same way (over very warm water). Haiyan was actually a Super Typhoon with sustained winds greater than 150mph…that’s a Category 5 Hurricane.
Haiyan formed east of the Phillipines as a Tropical Depression on November 3 and quickly formed into a typhoon and then super typhoon. On Friday, November 8th, Haiyan moved into the Phillipines with estimated sustained winds of 195mph! In this part of the world, hurricane hunter aircraft is not used, so meteorologists estimate the winds using satellite pictures.
We measure the strength of storms using sustained winds or central pressure. With estimated winds of 195mph, Haiyan could go in the record books as the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone ever recorded on Earth! The previous record holder was Hurricane Camille in 1969. Camille made landfall over Louisiana/Mississippi and flattened everything in its path along the coast of Mississippi. Two other measurements of 190mph were made in tropical cyclones since then. Super Typhoon Tip in 1979 and Hurricane Alan in 1980 both had winds measured to be 190mph.
It’s estimated that the central pressure of Haiyan was 895mb, but that number could be lowered. Hurricane Tip is the record holder for lowest pressure with a measured 870mb. Currently, Haiyan is the twelfth strongest tropical cyclone using central pressure. Wilma, by the way, holds the record for the lowest central pressure in the Atlantic Basin (882mb). Wilma hit Florida in 2005 (the same year as Katrina).
It’s too early assess how much Haiyan will cost the people of the Phillipines, but there have been some estimates of $14 billion and the super typhoon will likely be the costliest natural disaster in Phillipines history. It’s also too early to rank the storm in terms of the number of deaths it caused. That information will be released in the coming weeks.
No matter how you measure its strength and impact (winds, central pressure, death toll or cost), Haiyan was definitely one of the strongest Tropical Cyclones ever seen on the planet.
-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo
Dry skies and just a bit breezy and cool for this Veterans day… the weather is looking great for any parades and ceremonies through the day.
High pressure controls our weather today ahead of an approaching cold front that will swing through late tonight and early tomorrow morning. That front will usher in December-like temperatures for a few days. Brrr! But the big headline with it will be the potential for a period of snow showers–all the way down to the coast! We’re looking at rain showers beginning after midnight, and they could mix with, or change to a few wet snow showers between 5-8am. Temperatures will be above freezing through the night and early morning (upper 30s by dawn), so most of the snow showers will melt as they hit the pavement. IF we see a brief burst of heavier snow, a light dusting could form on some colder surfaces and briefly reduce visibility for early morning commuters.
Highs behind the front will only be in the low 40s on Tuesday afternoon and may just briefly hit 40 on Wednesday before milder air returns for late week.
A few people in our newsroom noticed they weren’t feeling well today (Thursday) and were wondering if it might be due to the quickly changing weather. There are many who are convinced that they experience various symptoms when there are big changes in the weather. These symptoms often include headaches, sniffles, and worsening arthritic pain. Weather changes which are ‘blamed” include many different weather elements such as temperature, pressure, humidity, and rain.
Let’s first establish the quickly changing weather over the past several days. Below is a graph showing high and low temperatures since Tuesday. Note how we go from 25°F on Tuesday morning to 65° on Thursday afternoon.
Moisture in the atmosphere has also changed quite a bit over the past several days. One way to measure this is by looking at dewpoints. See the chart below…
The air pressure, often blamed for varius maladies, has also dropped signifiantly since earlier this week:
Tuesday Morning Air Pressure (mb): 1040
Thursday Afternoon Air Pressure (mb): 1007
So now that we have established our rapidly changing weather over the past 48 hours, what about the connection to pain and illness? I searched the internet for scientific studies on this issue and could not find any conclusive results.
The website Johns Hopkins Health Alerts reports on two studies regarding changing weather and arthritis. While the studies showed a possible connection, the data were not strong enough to decisively conclude that weather indeed affects arthritic pain. One of the studies focused on people with osteoarthritis and found “No significant associations were found between any of the weather conditions and osteoarthritis pain at any site, except for a slight association between rising barometric pressure and hand pain in women. “ (Johns Hopkins Health Alerts)
Just because it’s hard to prove in a a study does not necessarily mean that the weather-pain connection does not exist. Many people swear that certain weather changes cause their body to react a certain way. In fact, the anecdotal evidence is strong enough that we (and many other large weather vendors) often put out some type of “pain forecast” which is based on humidity, pressure, and other weather factors.
Of course, certain conditions which are affected by the weather DO have conclusive scientific evidence of harmful affects. For example, dry weather in the spring often leads to high pollen counts…we KNOW this makes some of us sick.
During the past couple of weeks, I’ve had many people ask me when the first flakes of the season will fall here in Southeast New England. At the time of writing this, I don’t see any snowfall for us through the weekend.
With the idea of first snowfalls in my head, I decided to look at when some of the first snowfalls happened in recent years. I had to dig deep into the record books to get all this information. Using measurable snowfall (not a Trace) as an indicator of the first snowfall, here are the dates of the first snowfalls since 2001 at T.F. Green Airport in Warwick.
- 2001: Dec 9
- 2002: Nov 27
- 2003: Dec 5
- 2004: Nov 13
- 2005: Nov 24
- 2006: Dec 4
- 2007: Dec 2
- 2008: Dec 7
- 2009: Dec 5
- 2010: Nov 8
- 2011: Oct 29
- 2012: Nov 7
- 2013: —
If you take the average of all those dates from 2001 through 2012, the average first snowfall is November 19th.
So, when will the first snow of the season arrive? Short term, there is the chance of some measurable snow during the middle of next week as a few different computer models are indicating a Nor’easter could develop in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. There could be enough cold air aruond, too. Beyond that, looking at some long term weather information, it appears as though the second half of November will either be near normal or slightly above normal temperature-wise. If we do not see any snow next week (November 14-15), it does not appear we will see any snow this month.
-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo
If you stop and think about it, we have not had a lot of rain in recent weeks. That’s great for picking apples and pumpkins and raking leaves, but bad for water levels. During October, TF Green Airport had 0.61″ of rain which is 3.32″ or 82% below normal. In September we had above normal rainfall (+0.67″), but most of that rain fell during the first half of the month. Remember the record-setting Labor Day weekend flooding? So for the second half of September and all of October, we have had very little rain.
The National Weather Service has been monitoring the lack of rainfall here and across the country. Due to the lack of rain, parts of Rhode Island are now in a Moderate Drought, including half of Providence County, Bristol County and north Tiverton. Most of Rhode Island is considered to be abnormally dry.
Here are the differences between the two drought monitoring classifications:
A moderate drought is defined by the NWS to be an area which has some “damage to crops, pastures; streams, reservoirs, or wells are low and some water shortages are developing or imminent; voluntary water-use restrictions requested”. This time of year crops and water-use restrictions don’t matter as much. However, it’s something to watch as we head into the winter season when reservoirs and water tables are usually recharged.
According to the NWS, an area is considered abnormally dry when ”short-term dryness is slowing planting and growth of crops or pastures. Abnormally dry could also mean an area is coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered”. Crops and pastures don’t matter as much now as the growing season has ended, but a growing water deficit is becoming a concern.
In Massachusetts, a widespread area of moderate drought conditions now exists.
Most of Bristol, Norfolk and Plymouth Counties, parts of Worcester County and all of the Cape and Islands are in this Moderate Drought. The City of Boston is also included in that Moderate Drought. Boston received 0.61″ of rain in October which is 3.33″ below normal.
The main reason for these conditions are the lack of rain, but soil moisture and stream/river flow are very low. The following maps show the temperature anomaly, soil moisture and stream flow, respectively, for the country.
Long term forecasts indicate that dry conditions will persist through November, December and into the beginning of 2014. While it’s nice to get these pretty blue skies, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to get a little rain or snow once in awhile.
Speaking of snow, here’s a quick winter forecast: while there will be some snow in December/January long term indicators of storm tracks and cold air indicate that the second half of the winter (Feb/Mar) could be the snowiest part of the season. This could be when we see reservoirs and water tables recharged.
-T.J. Del Santo
Sunday morning’s weather may or may not be favorable to see the partial solar eclipse. I know that doesn’t sound very decisive at all, but here’s why…
To recap, here’s the timing of the eclipse.
- 6:21am: Sun rises already partially eclipsed.
- 7:12am: Eclipse is over.
Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, we have a cold front working through Southern New England. Ahead of the front, there are some breaks in the clouds, but there are also some clouds and showers. That front will move offshore by morning, but it looks like some leftover clouds and showers will be in the area (especially over eastern Massachusetts) around sunrise. These clouds could block the southeast horizon (where the sun comes up this time of year). The computer models indicate some breaks over RI, but not over eastern MA. Here’s some computer model output for total cloud cover around 7am on Sunday morning.
All three of these computer models indicate that there will be some clearing over Rhode Island, but less clearing over Massachusetts. The extent of that clearing will be key to viewing the eclipse. Here’s what I’m thinking, there WILL be some breaks in the clouds, but not a clear view of the eclipse. I think the sun will be peaking through the clouds during the 41minutes of eclipse that we can see. In fact, the clouds could create a spectacular view of the eclipse.
Unfortunately, it’s hit or miss, but I’ll be one of the many out to see this rare event.
REMEMBER: NEVER LOOK DIRECTLY AT THE SUN
-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo
Wow…already November and Todays high temperatures reached 70 degrees! What’s better than that?…How about a Red Sox World Series Parade. It kicks off Saturday at 10am….click here for details. Weather looks good in Boston with dry and pleasant tempertures, light breezes. Saturday is the perefect time for this celebration since Sunday looks windy and much colder. Enjoy the day and parade !!
–Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca..
What a way to start November! It’s be a wild Friday morning, with gusty winds, temperatures near 70 and scattered showers. While we’ve seen a few gusts over 40mph so far this morning, our main concern is a potentially damaging line of heavy rain and wind that’s been moving across western New England and will be in Rhode Island by lunchtime. This “squall line” of severe thunderstorms–with little to no thunder and lightning– has had a history of producing wind gusts 50-60mph and has been responsible for downed trees, power outages and many airport delays. As it moves through, we could see some wind damage here, too.
Our wind advisory continues until 6pm this evening, but the strongest winds will likely be through mid-afternoon. That’s around the time that most of the showers will be exiting the region, too… with drier weather and diminishing winds expected for this evening.
Weather permitting, there will be a special treat in the skies at sunrise on Sunday, November 3. A solar eclipse will be visible across a wide area of the Northern Hemisphere including here in Southern New England.
A solar eclipse is when the moon comes between the Earth and the Sun, with the moon blocking out the light of the Sun. There are two types of solar eclipses…annular and total. A total eclipse is when the moon blocks out the entire disk of the Sun. An annular eclipse is when a ring of the Sun appears on the outer edge of the moon. During a total eclipse, strange things can happen. Animal behavior can be unusual; temperatures can drop; and sometimes you can see the brightest stars in the sky during the middle of the day.
The eclipse on November 3rd is a special one because it will be a combination of both an annular and a total solar eclipse….it’s called a “hybrid eclipse”. However, we will only see a partial eclipse which looks like a piece of the Sun is missing. It should still be very interesting to see. Here’s a map showing the extent of totality and the extent of the partial eclipse.
Here’s what to expect in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts.
The Sun will rise at 6:21am on Sunday, November 3rd. As it rises, it will already be eclipsed by the moon. In fact, the eclipse begins for our area around 5:16am. We’ll see it eclipsed at the 6:21am sunrise until 7:12am. The moon will be crossing the lower right portion of the Sun.
Here’s what it should look like:
CAUTION: NEVER LOOK DIRECTLY AT THE SUN. Staring at the Sun can cause permanent eye damage or even blindness. There are a number of SAFE ways to see the eclipse. You could use a welder’s mask (ask for shade number 14), or special glasses to view the eclipse.
For less than a dollar a piece, you can order these glasses at http://www.rainbowsymphony.com/soleclipse.html
You could also make a simple and safe eclipse viewer.
A pinhole projector viewer is easy to make.
Find a long box (I used a flourescent light bulb box). Cut out a large hole on one of the top of the box (this will be where you view the sun).
Next cut a small hole, 2-3inches wide on one end of the box.
Tape a piece of aluminum foil over the hole.
Using a pin, put a small hole in the middle of the foil
Tape a piece of paper on the inside of the viewing area on the inside of the box.
Your pinhole viewer is complete. Aim the pinhole toward the sun and look at the eclipsed Sun on the piece
of white paper at the other end.
As Tony mentioned in his blog post yesterday, an approaching cold front will be bringing strong winds, and, as of this morning, much of our area is under a HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through late Friday afternoon. The watch means there is the potential for damaging winds. The area of main concern is closer to the coast through SE MA, but even interior parts of RI could see some gusts to near 50mph on Friday.
TIMING: Strongest winds will be from 7am-2pm on Friday. But this evening winds will be picking up and strengthening through the night.
WIND SPEEDS: The latest data in from our computer models this morning is continuing to show the potential for strong southwesterly winds. Gusts will be about 25-35mph during trick-or-treating this evening and then strengthen overnight. By early Friday morning some gusts over 40mph are possible, with an occasional gust to 50-55mph.
IMPACTS: We still have a lot of leaves on our trees, but many are ready to drop, so there will be many leaves that come down… in addition winds of this strength could bring down some tree limbs, branches and even isolated trees, leading to potential power outages. If you have a lot of Halloween decorations in your yard, make sure they are secured.
RAINFALL: About 1/2″ of rain…. it’s been very dry through October, so stream and river flooding will not be a concern. However, leaf-clogged storm drains could lead to localized street and poor drainage flooding.
The good news with Halloween evening, the temperatures will be very mild…around 55-60 between 5 and 9pm. There is still the chance for some passing showers…however it does not look widespread or very heavy. The weather theme is no “washout” despite the shower risk.
Winds will continue to increase later Thursday Night bringing in the mild temperartures. This is in advance of a strong storm that will pass thru the Great Lakes on Friday. For us locally it means strong southwest gales Friday (40-45mph) along with widespread rain showers. A High Wind Advisory “may” be issued Friday..stay tuned for updates.
Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca
We didn’t take a direct hit from Sandy, but it was reminder (as was Irene the year before) of what hurricanes and tropical storms can do. Sandy side-swiped Rhode Island, after it came up the East Coast and made an unusual left turn into New Jersey. We were spared the worst, New Jersey and New York were not. Still, parts of Rhode Island were devastated. Hurricane-force wind gusts battered the south coast. A 3-5 foot storm surge inundated coastal communities and large waves eroded our fragile shoreline.
Here’s Sandy by the numbers:
Peak Wind Gusts:
- Westerly 75mph
- Point Judith (Narragansett) 70mph
- Ninigret (Charlestown) 65mph
- Conimicut Light (Warwick) 61mph
- TF Green Airport (Warwick) 51mph
Total Water Level (Storm Surge + Astronomical Tide):
- Saunderstown (Narragansett) 6.89ft
- Fox Point (Providence) 6.89ft
- Warren 6.2ft
- Newport 6.13ft
- Watch Hill (Westerly) 5.8ft
Rainfall was not as much a factor in Rhode Island as was ocean water. Smithfield reported 2.72″, TF Green Airport had 1.45″ of rainfall from Sandy.
There were no deaths reported from Sandy. This was due, I’m sure, to plenty of warning from media and officials. Many evacuated the south coast. The damage, however, to parts of the state, especially the Misquamicut section of Westerly was devastating. Sand was blown off the beach onto Atlantic Avenue and the storm surge inundated the area with 3-3.5feet of water. Many properties were badly damaged or destroyed.
Sandy hit Rhode Island with Category 1 or Category 2 Hurricane type of damage and it was only a glancing blow! The Town of Westerly is rebuilding with raised structures and more mobile facilities. Between Irene in 2011 and Sandy in 2012, we have been reminded what a hurricane can do to Southern New England.
-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo
Parts of Rhode Island are under a Frost Advisory tonight. The National Weather Service issues a Frost Advisory when the low temperature is forecast to be 33 to 36 degrees on clear and calm nights during the growing season. The areas under the advisory is still in the growing season.
A strong cold front pushed through Southern New England Tuesday evening….bringing the coldest air of the season into our area. Today, a weak coastal low is passing to our south and east. After some afternoon and evening showers, the skies should clear overnight. With light winds and clear skies, our temperatures should drop into the 30′s across a good portion of our area.
If you have plants outside that are sensitive to a frost or freeze, you should cover them up or bring them indoors. Common plants are that susceptible to a frost are aloe plants, cactus, geraniums, herbs, jade plants, tropical evergreen hibiscus, palm trees and warm season vegetables. Gardeners rule of thumb: if you’re not sure, cover it up.
-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo
The leaves are changing colors, the temperatures are getting colder, Halloween decorations are up. It’s late October, and the hometown team is still playing baseball! The Boston Red Sox will be taking on the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series beginning on Wednesday. For the most part, the weather will be cooperating.
A cold front will push through New England on Tuesday evening. Behind the front is the coldest air of the season. In fact, Boston will not reach 60° for the first time since early June. To complicate things a little bit more, an area of low pressure will be passing by Southern New England on Wednesday. This low will bring cloudiness and some light rain/drizzle to Boston. The latest information indicates the light rain or drizzle will be winding down or ending by the first inning. Beyond that drier weather will prevail in Boston.
Here’s the break down for the first 2 games of the Series:
Game 1. Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 8:07pm Cloudy skies with some light rain or drizzle ending early; otherwise chilly and breezy with a game time temperatures of 46°…43° by the late innings. Winds may start out blowing in from right field, then blow in from left field for most of the game.
Game 2. Fenway Park in Boston, MA at 8:07pm Mainly clear skies, windy and chilly with a game time temperature around 48°. Winds will tend to blow from the 3rd base line to the 1st base line (westerly wind).
Then, the Series shifts to St. Louis. A large area of high pressure will keep the conditions dry over the middle of the country for the next few days. On Saturday, a cold front will move through Missouri without much fanfare and high pressure will dominate on Sunday.
Game 3. Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 8:07pm Mainly clear skies for the game with a temperature of 59° for the first pitch, down to 50° by midnight. Winds will be blowing from left field to right field (north 5-10mph).
Game 4. Busch Stadium in St. Louis, MO at 8:15pm Clear skies and a little cooler with a temperature around 55° at game time to about 50° by midnight. Winds will be blowing out to left field (from the southwest 5-10mph).
Go Red Sox!!
-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo
Good Evening From Chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…
The annual Orionid meteor shower for late Tonight (peaks during pre-dawn hours 5am). Skies will average mostly clear, however moon light will make some of the more faint shooting stars more difficult to see at times. Click here to see Orionid Update that aired on our newscast this evebing
The following is from stardate.org
The gibbous Moon, which is about 90 percent full tonight, rises by mid-evening and soars high across the sky during the night. Its light will overpower all but the brightest of the meteors.
|Name||Date of Peak||Moon|
|Quadrantids||Night of January 2||Sets shortly before dawn|
|Lyrids||Night of April 21||In view most of the night|
|Eta Aquarids||Nights of May 4/5||Early morning crescent|
|Perseids||Nights of August 11/12||Sets after midnight|
|Orionids||Night of October 21||In view most of the night|
|Leonids||Night of November 16||Full|
|Geminids||Nights of December 12, 13||In view most of the night|
NOTES These are approximate times for the Lower 48 states; actual shower times can vary. Bright moonlight makes it difficult to see all but the brightest meteors.
What is a meteor shower?
A meteor shower is a spike in the number of meteors or “shooting stars” that streak through the night sky.
Most meteor showers are spawned by comets. As a comet orbits the Sun it sheds an icy, dusty debris stream along its orbit. If Earth travels through this stream, we will see a meteor shower. Although the meteors can appear anywhere in the sky, if you trace their paths, the meteors in each shower appear to “rain” into the sky from the same region.
Meteor showers are named for the constellation that coincides with this region in the sky, a spot known as the radiant. For instance, the radiant for the Leonid meteor shower is in the constellation Leo. The Perseid meteor shower is so named because meteors appear to fall from a point in the constellation Perseus. Tonights Orionid shower are from fragments of Haleys Comet
What are shooting stars?
“Shooting stars” and “falling stars” are both names that describe meteors — streaks of light across the night sky caused by small bits of interplanetary rock and debris called meteoroids vaporizing high in Earth’s upper atmosphere. Traveling at tens of thousands of miles an hour, meteoroids quickly ignite from the searing friction with the atmosphere, 30 to 80 miles above the ground. Almost all are destroyed in this process; the rare few that survive and hit the ground are known as meteorites.
When a meteor appears, it seems to “shoot” quickly across the sky, and its small size and intense brightness might make you think it is a star. If you’re lucky enough to spot a meteorite (a meteor that makes it all the way to the ground), and see where it hits, it’s easy to think you just saw a star “fall.”
How can I best view a meteor shower?
Get away from the glow of city lights and toward the constellation from which the meteors will appear to radiate.
After you’ve escaped the city glow, find a dark, secluded spot where oncoming car headlights will not periodically ruin your sensitive night vision. Look for state or city parks or other safe, dark sites.
Once you have settled at your observing spot, lie back or position yourself so the horizon appears at the edge of your peripheral vision, with the stars and sky filling your field of view. Meteors will instantly grab your attention as they streak by.
Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….
Here is the latest Foliage report. I just got back from North Conway New Hampshire. The color was nice there, but showing signs of being just past peak….infact the drive along the Kangamangus highway had leaves already dropped on 50% off the trees. Bottom line, the best color continues to move south into our area next few weeks. I drove thru Foster And Clayville this morning in the northwest part of state and the color was very nice. Send us your photos at email@example.com
Columbus Day weekend is approaching, and recent history suggests that it is going to be a nice weekend. Here is a summary of the past five years for Columbus Day weekend. Basically, I went through the records at TF Green airport for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday for each of the past 5 Columbus Day weekends.
Notice that 40% of the days had high temperatures in the 70s or 80s. Also, only 3 out of the 15 days had measurable rainfall.
Why do we tend to get good weather (at least recently) for Columbus Day Weekend?
Climatology is the primary reason. October is month when the milder days of early fall start to transition to the colder days of later fall. But because it is transition month, we get a lot of days that are “just right”….not too hot, and not too cold. The normal high temperature is around 63° for the month of October, that’s a temperature most of us can tolerate.
In addition, October is also a month when humidity isn’t much of a factor. When we do get warm days that reach the 80s, they tend to be comfortable days with low humidity.
Another reason for the nice Columbus Day weather is just luck. Storms can develop any time of year here in southern New England; the past 5 years we have lucked out because the storm track has stayed away for the most part.
So What about Columbus Day weekend THIS year?
Despite the cloudy conditions to end this week, improvements should move in just in time for the weekend. Saturday could get off to a slow start with mist and even a few showers. But the center of a coastal storm to our south looks like it never makes it here. Therefore, it looks like a mostly rain-free weekend with temperatures in the 60s. Sound familiar? According to our 5 year history, it should. -Pete Mangione
Wind and Rain Threat Greatest Between 4pm and 11pm
A strong cold front is moving across the Northeast today, and ahead of it comes the threat of potentially damaging winds and flooding rains. This is the same front that brought 3feet of snow to parts of South Dakota; tornadoes in Nebraska and Iowa; flooding in Kentucky; and prompted a Tornado Watch today for parts of the Northeast including New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington D.C. The timing of the front working into Southeast New England will limit the amount of severe weather here. We are expecting frontal passage around 11pm, well after max daytime heating. Nonethess, we do have some things we are monitoring.
WINDS: Wind Advisory has been posted by the National Weather Service for interior Rhode Island and Massachusetts — specifically Providence and Kent Counties in RI and northern Bristol County in MA. Winds could gust to 45mph from the south this afternoon after 4pm this afternoon. An area of stronger winds between 4-6 thousand feet known as a low level jet (LLJ) will be moving overhead late afternoon and evening. This ribbon of wind is due to the large temperature differences ahead of and behind the cold front. Some of these winds could “mix” down to the surface in gusts — the sunshine will help churn up the atmosphere through the day, bringing some of those winds down to where we are. Gusts to 45mph are possible and with trees still full with leaves, branches could come down and isolated power outages are possible. Also, this evening, with any heavy rain, strong winds could be brought down from above. While very unlikely, an isolated tornado is possible….I think the best chances for that threat will be in Western New England and further west. Winds will shift into the northwest late this evening and the winds could still be a little gusty…but not as strong as the southerly winds ahead of the front.
RAIN: Ahead of the front, we could see a few showers from time-to-time during the afternoon. Most of the rain, however, will fall after 8pm–just ahead of the cold front. Backing up a bit, a warm front blew through Southern New England early this morning. With the passage of the warm front, warmer and more humid air returned to Southern New England. Dew points jumped to mid-summer levels of 68° by 11am in Providence. With a more humid airmass, the presence of the LLJ and some instability in the atmosphere, any rain has the potential to fall heavily. Localized street and poor drainage flooding is possible. Stream flooding is also possible, but we have had a very dry stretch of weather so this may not be as much of a threat. Generally, 0.5 to 1.0″ of rain is expected in Southeast New England. In Western New England, higher amounts of rain (up to 2.0″) are possible as the timing of the front and upper-level support is better. It’s also possible a few rumbles of thunder could be heard (probably limited to western RI) this evening.
-T.J. Del Santo
From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…..(updated 12:10am Friday)
Latest forecast has Karen approaching the Gulf coast (Near New Orleans) this weekend as a strong tropical storm and not a hurricane. However, winds may gust to hurricne force. There are a number of factors in the atmosphere that can make a storm get stronger or weaker. Even though tropical storms and hurricane have strong winds “within” them, they do like to be in an enviorment with very strong winds “surrounding” them. This is called “wind shear“. Wind shear will tend to disrupt a storms symetrical structure. Right now, Karen is being influenced by some shear. Imagine it this way (bear with me on this strange comparison). Let say you are in a car moving at 80 mph. Your passenger is holding a big stick of cotton candy (don’t laugh, just go with me on this). Now this stick of cotton candy is the hurricane….now open the window at 80 mph, and place that cotton candy stick outside….what happens….the pile of candy gets shreaded and torn apart….that is what wind shear can do to a hurricane.
Also tropical systems need to be in an enviorment that is very humid. Dry air will disrupt the formation of thunderstorms and thus rising air. At this time, Karen has some dry air being ingested…What does all of this mean?….Karen will still be a disruptive storm, but its ability for rapid development into a major hurricane is unlikely…stay tuned…some of the remnant moisture from Karen may move into New England Monday and Tuesday of next week with some rain
National Hurricane Center has just issued it’s first advisory on “Tropical Storm Karen”, our latest name storm of the 2013 hurricane season. Here’s what the National Hurricane just released as of 9am:
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
Hurricane “Watches” have been issued for the Gulf Coast of the US from Grand Isle, LA to Indian Pass, FL.
This storm is expected to make landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico (possibly near the Florida Panhandle) this weekend and then hook up with a slow moving cold front heading across the eastern US. Some of the moisture from Karen’s remnants could bring tropical downpours to our area by Monday into Tuesday. Stay tuned!
Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…
Watching an organized area of thunderstorms in the Caribbean which will move into the Gulf Of Mexico. The system has the potential to be the next named tropical storm….Karen. Residents along the upper Gulf coast will need to monitor. Infact, if the system does develop, there is a chance that some of the remnant moisture could give our area some rain by early next week.
Below is the latest satellite photo showing moisture in the northwest Caribbean…
We use various computer models to predict tropical systems….the map below represents various computer tracks over the next several days….there is a large “agreement” have a possible landfall somewhere between New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle….from there the remnant moisture/rain may try to move into New England next week…
Model Data Courtesy Of WeatherBell
We are currently on the air unil 9AM but I wanted to give you a quick update for Monday. It looks like the Monday storm will be a MISS. The Cape and Islands may get some showers, but most of our viewing area will miss out on the rain and wind. There will be some extra clouds for Monday with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
By the middle of the work week, temperatures may get into the upper 70s or even low 80s!
Good Afternoon From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..
All week we have been talking about a potential ocean storm for the Monday time frame. It still looks like a significant storm will form over the ocean. Up until a few days ago, the storm was expected to be far enough offshore to spare us any rain or wind. We are now seeing indications of this system tracking a bit closer. As a result, some rain and wind is back in the forecast for Monday, the magnitude of both will be determined next few days as we analyze more data….. so stay tuned for updates.
Forecast map below is from one of our more reliable high resolution models called the “RPM” It indicates a stronger storm closer to the coast by Monday morning….infact it even hints the storm may take on “tropical characteristics”. We can sometimes get what is known as a “hybrid” storm or “sub-tropical storm” In other words, structure-wise, the storm has hints of warm air near its center, like a tropical storm. Bottom line, the storm needs to be watched as far as the magnitude of any potential rain and wind. Stay tuned for updates…in the meantime, the weekend looks nice……..Tony Petrarca
RPM Model Valid 10am Monday
City Hall Downtown Providence As Massive Storm Surge Sweeps Thru.
From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…
On Sept 21st 1938 Southern New Englanders woke up to a tranquil day. Hard to imagine that later that afternoon one of the worst hurricanes to strike the United States was heading our way…and without warning. Meteorologists back then knew about offshore hurricane, but with the lack of Today’s technology, the storm was not forecasted to hit, but rather stay offshore. The net result would be millions of dollars in damage, and hundreds of lives lost in Long Island and New England..
On this 75th Anniversary The National Weather Service Taunton has put togther a very impressive look back at this historic storm.
We share this web link with you……Click here: 1938 Hurricane
Boy was it chilly this morning! With quite a few of our more rural areas falling into the 30s overnight it was one of the coldest morning of the season.
There is change in the air though, as a steady warm-up is slated for the 2nd half of the week, finishing with slightly warmer than normal temperatures by Friday afternoon. And the best part–we’re going to stay storm free! High pressure which brought the cold, dry Canadian air on Monday sliding east. As it does, winds are shifting to a warmer southwest direction. The result will be highs today about 8-10° warmer than yesterday. By Friday afternoon, inland areas will be in the upper 70s!
Our next weather system is a cold front slated for Sunday which will likely bring a few showers to our area.
Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..
Cold front that gave us some showers this morning is now offshore. Behind this front, much cooler drier air will filter in next 24-36 hours. Low temperatures around dawn Tuesday will range from the upper 30s in northwest RI, to the upper 40s along the shore… afternoon highs Tuesday with lots of sunshine only 60-65, but overall a nice early Autumn Day
Tuesday Afternoon Day Planner….Blue Skies But On The Cool Side……..
Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca….
Strong cold front approaching this evening and overnight will bring a round of heavy showers and thunderstorms. The blue line on the map below is the front, the leading edge of much cooler and drier air. Some storms after 10pm Tonight will be locally strong with downpours, gusty winds and frequent lightning..
It looks like this cold front will slow down by Friday morning as low pressure forms along it just offshore….that combined with a weather disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere will keep Friday unsettled with showers and thunderstorms at times…
By Saturday the cold front is well offshore with breezy dry. much cooler air moving in. Skies will average partly cloudy duriing the afternoon with a real feel of Autumn in the air
Good Evenign From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Weakens…..It Will Race Away Into The Canadian Maratimes And Away From New England Next Few Days
Hurricane Humberto Increases To 85 MPH…..Still Far Away In Eastern Atlantic. Will Weaken To Tropical Storm As It Tracks Westward Into The Central Atlantic Early Next Week….Will Need To Watch Later Next Week??
Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca… We are now entering the most active part of the hurricane season. I am tracking two storms. Both are not threat to the United States. Gabrielle will turn out to sea, well away from New England. Meanwhile Humberto is expected to become the seasons first hurricane, BUT is very far away in the eastern Atlantic. Any impact on the East Coast (if at all) is well over a week away….
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Heads For Bermuda With Winds Of 60mph.
…WIND INCREASING ON BERMUDA AS STRENGTHENING GABRIELLE
ABOUT 55 MI…90 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1004 MB…29.65 INCHES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR.
Humberto Nearing Hurricane Strength….But It Is Still Very Far Away In The Eastern Atlantic
ABOUT 245 MI…400 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…993 MB…29.32 INCHES