Tony’s Pinpoint Weather Blog

Dry Mild Tuesday, Rain To Snow Wednesday

November 24th, 2014 at 8:15 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

Dry mild weather returns Tuesday before our next storm arrives Wednesday. The exact track of a coastal low will determine amounts of both rain and snow and more importantly the rain snow line.  At this point the precipitation will start as all rain early Wednesday morning. A mix, and then change to wet snow will occur during afternoon and evening hours…first in the higher elevations northwest of Providence, then later points south and east of Providence by early Wednesday evening.  The best chances of accumulating snow will coincide with location of colder temperatures both near the ground and within a few 1000 feet of atmosphere above. Even with the storm still 36 hours out, there is still a high degree of uncertainty with the snow accumulation forecast.  Check back with us later Tonight and Tuesday to forecast revisions to both snow and rain amounts.  Meanwhile, travel now thru Tuesday night looks OK. New computer model data comes in later this evening…we will have an update on our 10pm news on Fox Providence and 11pm news on WPRI channel 12.

 

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Rain and Snow with Wednesday Storm

November 24th, 2014 at 9:18 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The ingredients are coming together for a disruptive coastal storm impacting the East Coast on the busiest travel day of the year. It’s a storm system that could lead to delays from Florida to New England as low pressure tracks up the east coast.   For New England, the exact track of the storm will determine “how much” and “who” sees snow (vs rain).  As of this morning, we have the highest confidence in a plow-able snow across interior CT into Central and Western MA.  That’s were a “Winter Storm Watch” has been issued.  A “Watch” means there is the potential for 6″ or more of snow.  temp 3

There are still some details to be worked out… however, a “miss” is looking unlikely at this point, so people with plans to travel on Wednesday are urged to stay up to date with the forecast.

TIMING:  Rain will start to move into DC by 7am,  and reach the southern New England coast by 10am, with steadier and heavier rain and snow by early afternoon.  Travel conditions in and around New England should be “ok”-though not perfect in the morning and early afternoon and deteriorate after 3pm.   The height of the storm in New England is from 7pm the evening until 5am Thanksgiving morning.  There may be some lingering lighter snow showers on Thanksgiving morning, but the worst will be over.

temp 1

06z GFS Valid at 1pm Thursday 

PRECIPITATION TYPE:  Very tricky with this storm.  Again, the highest confidence of mainly snow will be in western MA and CT, through interior parts of PA/NY, VT and NH.  Across southeastern New England a combination of rain/snow and sleet looks likely with some accumulations possible. temp 2

Near the RI coast east to Cape Cod and the Island, it looks like the precipitation will fall mainly as rain, with little to no accumulations possible.  Subtle shifts in the track will bring more or less snow into our area.  As of this morning, there were still a lot of uncertainties with the track, so it’s too early to say how much snow will fall.  Areas north and west of I-295 have the best shot at enough snow to plow and shovel.

WIND:  Wind will also be an issue with this storm with strengthening northeast and north winds through the day Wednesday into Wednesday night.  Gusts over 35mph are possible and a high wind advisory or warning may be issued.

Please continue to check back in for updates.


Gusty Winds Continue, Rain Tapers off by Mid-Day

November 24th, 2014 at 8:39 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Another Monday morning dealing with wind swept rain and a slow commute.  This time,  it’s a warm front to blame.  Rain has been falling moderate to heavy at times through the morning with 0.5″ to 1″ of rain possible by the time it tapers off around mid-day.  In addition, Rhode Island and southeastern MA has had southerly winds sustained around 15-25mph with gusts up to 45mph.  Wind_Advisory_650x366

It will stay blustery through the afternoon, with just a few lingering lighter showers and mist for the trip home from school and work.  Temperatures are very mild through the day… in the 50°s this morning and 60°s this afternoon.  The record for today is 73° from 1979.  temp 1

Winds will stay blustery through Tuesday, with mild temperatures (near 60° at lunchtime) and then starting to cool through the late afternoon and night.  Much colder air moves in just in time for a coastal storm to impact the East Coast on Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Check out the latest blogs for more on the forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night.


Wednesday’s Storm Could Bring Travel Headaches

November 24th, 2014 at 12:27 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

In Saturday night’s blog post, I wrote about the ‘possibility’ of a storm on Wednesday.  After looking at another day’s worth of data, I’m confident that we will see a storm on Wednesday.  Now, harder questions arise.  The biggest is what track will the storm take?

Storm_Tracks_650x366

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Rain/Wind for Monday Morning Commute

November 23rd, 2014 at 7:42 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The morning commute could be a slow one on Monday.  Rain, wind and coastal flooding could create some headaches.

A warm front will be lifting through New England.  Ahead of it, we’ll see rain/wind in the morning, some of which could be heavy/strong.  Behind it, we’ll get some very mild air.  Temperatures will soar into the 60s Monday afternoon! If we get enough sunshine, we could sneak up to 70!

Fcst_Map2_650x366

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Watching Wednesday/Thursday Carefully

November 23rd, 2014 at 9:25 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As TJ mentioned in his previous blog post, there is a potential rain/snow maker on the way Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  4 main scenarios are possible, so here is what I’m thinking based on the new data coming in the morning:

Scenario 1: COMPLETE MISS – This is becoming less likely as the computer models are starting trend on at least some kind of precipitation making it through.

Scenario 2: SNOWY TRACK – If the low pressure center tracks in just the right spot off to our south, this would put us on the colder, snowy side.   Accumulating snow and major travel impacts could occur with this scenario.  The chance of this happening is still low, but it’s something we need to watch.

Scenario 3: RAINY TRACK - If the low pressure center takes more of a western track, that would put us on the milder, rainy side.  While this could slow down driving, at least it would not have MAJOR travel impacts. This means we could likely avoid things like flight cancellations and road closures.  At this point, I would give us a 50/50 shot at seeing this scenario.

Scenario 4: RAIN/SNOW/WINTRY MIX COMBO – I think this is the mostly likely scenario to occur. Similar to scenario 3, it might slow things down on the roads and create some flight delays, but we would be able to avoid any major impacts.  As for the rest of the country on Wednesday, some of our airports in New York City, Washington DC, and Florida could see a few issues because of rain.  The Wednesday before Thanksgiving  is usually one of the busiest (if not THE busiest) days for air travel.  Stay tuned and we will keep you updated! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 


Coastal Storm on the Wednesday Before T’Giving?

November 23rd, 2014 at 12:05 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

You may have heard some rumors about the possibility of a Nor’easter on one of the busiest travel days of the year…the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.  The rumor is true.  There is the possibility of a storm which could disrupt travel from the Mid Atlantic to New England.

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Based on the latest computer models from Saturday evening, here is what we could be looking at.

Fcst_Map3_650x366

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Lake Effect Snow Machine About to Turn Back On

November 19th, 2014 at 4:46 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Sixty five inches.  Nearly five and a half feet.  That’s how much snow has fallen in the Buffalo, NY suburbs during the past few days.  And more…a lot more… is about to come.

Here are some snowfall reports from the National Weather Service in Buffalo.

snow_totals

 

Snow is piled up as high as doors and covering the tops of cars and roofs of houses.

Courtesy: Jessica Marie in West Seneca, NY

Courtesy: Jessica Marie in West Seneca, NY

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Coldest Morning in Nearly 8 Months

November 19th, 2014 at 10:40 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It felt pretty uncomfortable outside this morning…and for good reason.  It’s been awhile since it has been this cold! This morning’s low temperature of 21° in Providence was the coldest temperature we have had in the capitol city since March 27th when the low was 20°.

lows_650x366

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Major Lake Effect Snow Storm in NY

November 18th, 2014 at 5:36 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The amount of snow that has fallen in western and northern New York is mind-boggling.  The recent blast of cold air, which has settled over the Northeast, is helping to create monster snow totals in parts of the Empire State.  As I type, 51″ of snow has fallen in Cheektowaga, NY!

During the morning, the National Weather Service in Buffalo wrote in their technical discussion that they are forecasting nearly 6feet of snow for Buffalo’s southern suburbs.

nwsbufThis is for good reason.  The band of lake effect snow was not moving at all, and it wasn’t expected to move out of the area until about 7pm EST.   Snowfall rates of 3 to 4″ per hour were reported and there was even some thunder heard in the area.

Storm_Radar_650x366

Here’s the MODIS satellite photo of the snow bands.

modis2

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All 50 States at or Below Freezing This Morning.

November 18th, 2014 at 2:04 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

This blast of Arctic air is being felt by millions of Americans today.  Here in Rhode Island, busy winds and cold temperatures are creating wind chills well into the 20s.  Western New York is dealing with a tremendous lake effect snow storm; parts of Florida have Freeze Warnings; and even parts of Hawaii would give you goose bumps.

Across the country, every single state had a weather station with readings of 32°F or lower this morning.   Rhode Island, by the way, was the last hold out.  That’s typical…we were the last of the Thirteen Colonies to sign the Constitution, too!  Rhode Island’s freezing temperature came at 8:54am when the temperature hit 32.0°F in Chepachet, RI.

Here are some temperature readings from some typical ‘warm’ states:

  • Florida:  28°F at Bob Sikes Airport
  • Texas:  Amarillo 17°F at the airport
  • California:  Mammoth/June Lakes  7°F
  • Hawaii:   Mauna Kea: 30° at NASA’s Infrared Telescope Facility

Freezing_650x366

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All Watches And Warnings Have Expired….

November 17th, 2014 at 7:41 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Fast moving system has raced offshore this evening. A line of strong thunderstorms (thin red line on radar) which hit Block Island, the Cape and Islands hard early this evening with winds to 60 mph, continues to pull away…in its wake a rapid drop in temperature very late Tonight will bring in some of the coldest air so far of the Autumn season next few days…

radra

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Radar Image As Of 735pm…Line Of Storms (red) Have Raced Offshore

 


3PM Storm Update…

November 17th, 2014 at 3:00 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Afternoon  from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca

Weather continues to move along on  schedule..heaviest of rain and wind late will be  late Today into early evening.  Currently tracking (as of 3:03pm) very heavy rain from New Jersey to Waterbury Conn. headed our away. Brief flash flooding of streets along with wind gusts of 45-55 mph over Rhode Island..up to 60mph for Cape after 4pm.

storm2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Photo courtesy Of National Weather Service Taunton.


Flash Flood Watch 3pm to 11pm

November 17th, 2014 at 11:45 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Add a FLASH FLOOD WATCH to the high wind advisories and warnings that are in effect for southern New England from late this afternoon through this evening.  As we continue to track an area of low pressure and strong cold front approaching southern New England,  Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts, except for the islands has the potential to see some flash flooding as “round 2″ of steadier and heavier downpours moves into our area later today.  In addition, as winds pick up, leaves will come down, potentially clogging storm drains and enhancing the street flooding.  With rainfall rates of up to 1″ per hour, urban and poor drainage areas will be prone to localized, brief flooding.  temp 1

While there’s a lull in the rainfall mid-day, it’s a good time to clean out the leaves from nearby storm drains.  temp 2Here’s a look at some of the potential rain totals by midnight.  temp 2


Windswept Rain Storm Today

November 17th, 2014 at 8:50 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s a cold rain falling in southern New England this morning with temperatures in the 30s for most with light to moderate rain.  The good news for commuters is that temperatures are warm enough that there’s no threat of ice or snow here in southern New England.  Our main concerns with this system is localized flooding and strong, damaging winds.

The WIND ADVISORY has been expanded to include ALL OF RHODE ISLAND and northern Bristol County in MA, while the HIGH WIND WARNING is for southern Bristol County (Including Fall River and New Bedford) as well as the Cape and Island.  Winds will pick up this afternoon and evening ahead of a strong cold front.  As heavier rain and potential isolated thunderstorms draw down stronger winds from aloft, some gusts could reach speeds of 50-60mph.  Isolated wind damage and power outages are possible.  The most likely time to see the stronger gusts is around the evening commute.

temp 3

Weather Alert

 As for the rain…. one batch of steadier rain has been moving through this morning, followed by a brief “lull” mid-day.  Another round of heavy rain and strong winds are likely around the time of the evening commute.  It’s late afternoon through the evening, ahead of a strong cold front when our area could also see a few thunderstorms.  Any t’storms would enhance both the rainfall rate and the wind speeds.  The rainfall accumulation map below is one models idea on where the heaviest rain could fall, but keep in mind, that line of 2″-3″ totals could end up shifting into a different part of southern New England or off-shore.  I’d plan on a healthy 1-1.5″ for most of our area with isolated amounts up to 3″ possible.

temp 2

Potential Rainfall Amounts Through this Evening

 


Strong Winds Expected Monday Afternoon/Evening

November 16th, 2014 at 5:34 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A quick-moving, but powerful storm system will move through the Northeast tonight through Monday evening.

An area of strong winds will pass over Southern New England Monday afternoon and evening.  Winds could gust to 50mph from the southwest.  A Wind Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service in Taunton for the Providence Metro Area and points to the south and east.

Wind_Advisory_650x366

On the Cape and Islands, stronger wind gusts are possible.  Isolated power outages are possible everywhere.

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Wind/Rain Maker on the Way; Then VERY Cold

November 16th, 2014 at 8:56 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

If you don’t like cold temperatures here is the good news: Temperatures go back into the 50s for Monday! Here is the bad news: The 50s will come with rain and a lot of wind by Monday overnight.

Tonight (Sunday night) some rain showers will start to move through after 10 or 11PM.  Initially, I was a little concerned about a wintry mix, but it looks like that will stay well off to our north.

MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE: Some fog and rain showers may slow things down a little, but we are not looking at widespread downpours.  Allow an extra few minutes and you should be OK.  The winds will be fairly light at this point.

MONDAY EVENING COMMUTE: Off and on showers will continue as temperatures rise into the 50s.  Some upper 50s are possible near the south coast! Breezes will start to pick up, but the strong gusts should hold off until after the commute.

 MONDAY NIGHT: Some heavy pockets of rain will move through; an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.  Winds will potentially gust between 35 to 50 mph; some isolated power outages are possible. Here is a look at a computer model forecast for 9PM (these strong winds may actually hold off until after midnight):

Blog_One

TUESDAY: Winds will continue to be busy gusting between 30-40 mph.  As the next arctic air mass slides on through, temperatures will actually be colder by the evening commute than for the morning commute.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING: Very cold with actual temperatures in the 20s but wind chills in the teens and even a few single digits.

Blog_2

Have a good Sunday and enjoy the roller coaster temperature ride! -Pete Mangione

 


Look for Meteors Next Few Nights/Mornings

November 15th, 2014 at 10:20 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

I saw a stray Leonid Meteor Friday evening.  It was very colorful, very bright and pretty large.  Unfortunately, meteors are fleeting, and I had no time to get a camera ready.  It was beautiful, though and you can see these meteors, too, for the next few days.

In the early morning skies of November 16-18, the Leonid meteors will make their annual appearance.  These meteors are famous for reaching ‘storm’ level when thousands of meteors could be seen per hour; however, these kind of shows don’t happen every year.  In fact, it’s about every 33 years or so when the number of meteors shows a significant rise.

Courtesy: Navicore/Wikipedia Commons.  A Leonid meteor in 2009.
Courtesy: Navicore/Wikipedia Commons. A Leonid meteor in 2009.

The Leonids are created from left over pieces of Comet Tempel-Tuttle.   This comet comes in and out of the inner solar system every 33 years.   As the comet approaches the sun, the ice melts and bits and pieces of the comet are left in space.   These particles are small–usually the size of a piece of dust or a grain of sand.  On a rare occasion, however, they can be larger.  As the Earth orbits the Sun, it passes through this debris.  The little bits of the comet burn up as they fall through the atmosphere, and we see the streaks of light.    The larger pieces of debris can create spectacular fireballs which can linger in the sky like fireworks. (more…)


Freeze Warning for Parts of Our Area

November 15th, 2014 at 10:00 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

In our area, the last area to see a frost or a freeze is Block Island.  The growing season is still technically ongoing on the island, and with another pretty cold night ahead, the National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning for Block Island for Sunday 2-6am.   In addition, Nantucket also has a Freeze Warning for that same time period.

Weather_Alert_650x366

According to the National Weather Service, a Freeze Warning is issued when freezing temperatures are forecast to threaten outdoor plants.  Those with agricultural interests in the warning area are advised to harvest or protect tender vegetation.

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Saturday: Coldest Day in 7.5 months

November 15th, 2014 at 7:10 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It was pretty cold today, there’s no doubt about it.  At sunrise, temperatures were well below freezing across most of the area.

LOWS_TODAY_650x366

It was a frosty start to the day, too.  I snapped these two photos of Jack Frost’s handywork up in Pascoag where the low was 23°.

frost_leaves Frost_Window

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Snow has Ended, Cold Temperatures Continue

November 14th, 2014 at 8:06 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A little taste of winter for us early this morning, as snow predawn left a coating to up to 2″ of wet snow on grassy surfaces and car tops.  Here’s a look at the minor snowfall totals for our area: temp 2

By 7:30am the snow was over and the sun was emerging as the back edge of the cloud cover moved out.  The rest of the day looks dry, brisk and bright with a fresh shot of cold air moving in behind this departing area of low pressure.  On a northwest wind, afternoon temperatures will only climb to the low 40s and wind chills will be in the 30s.  temp 3

Cold and dry will be the theme for the weekend…. temperatures begin in the 20s both mornings with Saturday’s high near 40 and only a few degrees warmer than that on Sunday.

Our next storm system on Monday has a track that supports mainly rain.  Check in over the weekend, though, for updates.


Friday AM Commute: rain and a little snow

November 13th, 2014 at 4:46 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data has come in this afternoon and it continues to support the idea of snowflakes in the air, but very little in the way of accumulation.

Here is an updated accumulation map that Tony and I have been working on as he gets ready for the evening newscasts.  Most of what you see below will be on the grass and car tops; but an inch or two of snow is possible on the pavement to the north and west of 295.

NewSnowAccum

 

Here is timeline of what to expect:

Now until 11PM: Cloudy and cool but dry.  So if you need to drive the kids around to practices and other activities this evening, that will be no problem!

11PM until 3AM: Light to moderate rain will overspread the area. 

3AM to 8AM: Rain will start to change to snow.  This will happen first in northwest Rhode Island.  For Providence and points south and east, the change to snow may not happen until 5AM – 7AM.  The coast may stay rain for the entire time…and if it does change to snow here the snow will be very brief.

8AM to 10AM: Snow will start to move out from west to east.  Western RI, you will be pretty much done with the the snow by this point.  Bristol County Mass will hang onto the snow/rain a little longer.

Morning Commute Impacts:

-It will be messy for everyone, so you may want to allow an extra 10 to 20 minutes to get to work.

-Along and north and west of 295, there may be some slick and snow covered roads.  Please drive with caution!

 

Have a good night and stay with WPRI both online and on the air for updates. -Pete Mangione

 


Early Friday Commute Could be Messy

November 13th, 2014 at 7:43 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Tomorrow could mark the first snowy commute of the season for our area.  It’s not going to be a lot of snow, but timing is everything, right?!  And the timing for this system could make for  a few headaches for early morning drivers on Friday.  The cold air is settling into southern New England today with dry and mostly sunny skies through the day.  The weather will remain quiet through this evening’s commute, so no worries there.

Things start to change overnight, as a quick-moving system tracks south of southern New England and strengthens as it passes southeast of Nantucket early tomorrow morning.

06z GFS valid at 7am Friday

06z GFS valid at 7am Friday

Initially the precipitation will start as rain, but it changes to wet snow from northwest to southeast late at night (after 2am).  Most of the snow will melt as it hits the (relatively) warm pavement, but it begins to coat grassy surfaces and car tops before dawn.  Our main concern is that a brief period of heavier snow will be possible between 4-7am, leading to small accumulations and perhaps even a slushy coating on roadways.  Any heavier snow will reduce visibility and could make for some slow travel.  temp 1

By late morning, the sun will be emerging as the skies clear and the rest of the day looks dry brisk and cool.

As for accumulations…. most of us end up with a coating to and inch of 2 of snow… again, mostly on grassy surfaces and car tops.  Isolated amounts of up to 3″ possible north of Providence. temp 2

temp 3


Landing on a Comet…History Made

November 12th, 2014 at 10:18 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Update:  Confirmation….Philae has landed on Comet 67P.  ESA scientists are trying to see if the lander is tethered to the comet.  However, the first image from a comet has been released.

Courtesy: ESA

Courtesy: ESA

Previous post:

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History will be made this morning as the European Space Agency will be landing on a comet…the first time this has ever been attempted.  We’ve flown by comets a few times, but humans have never attempted to land a space craft on one.

The Rosetta spacecraft which has been circling the solar system for a decade was in orbit of Comet 67-P since August.  It took stunning pictures of the comet, which is currently past the orbit of Mars.  A suitable landing site was found in the past couple months and now history is about to be made.

The lander, named Philae, separated from Rosetta this morning.  Here’s a picture of Rosetta from Philae just after separation.

Courtesy: European Space Agency

Courtesy: European Space Agency

…and here is a picture of Philae from Rosetta.

Courtesy: European Space Agency

Courtesy: European Space Agency

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Tale of Two Seasons This Week

November 9th, 2014 at 11:09 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

This week will likely average out to be pretty normal as far as temperatures go.  That is only because the first half of the week will feature above normal temperatures and the second half will feature below normal temperatures.  Our temperatures will go from mid-fall to early winter.

In previous posts, we discussed how ex-Typhoon Nuri in the Pacific Ocean would help create a powerful storm in the Bering Sea which would disrupt the weather patterns over North America.  The disruption in the atmospheric flow will bring much cooler air into the eastern half of the country.

This scenario is still playing out.  As the cooler air plunges into the United States, we’ll see the first significant winter storm of the season work across the country.  Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories are in effect from Idaho through Michigan.

TEXAS_650x366

These warnings/advisories are for heavy snow that will fall especially from South Dakota through the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

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Massive Storm Near Alaska Will Alter Jet Steam In The U.S. Next Week

November 7th, 2014 at 10:59 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

 

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

Massive storm now located  off the Aluetian Islands (near Alaska) will alter the entire jet stream (storm track) across the entire northern Hemisphere.. What does it mean for us???….the jet stream will “buckle” and drop significantly  south across the middle of the United States next week and eventually into New England by late week (around November 19th)…this will bring much colder air to New England…stay tuned.

Remnants of Typhoon Nuri Create to 60 Foot Waves Off Alaska
Typhoon Nuri, now an extra-tropical storm, is moving into the Aleutian Islands archipelago, and bringing with it some monstrously large waves. NOAA’s WaveWatch III ocean model, used to predict ocean conditions, shows that some waves could exceed 60 feet in height. The output for November 9 at 1200Z is plotted here in five foot contours. As the storm moves eastward, the islands act as a natural buffer to the mainland, and much of the significant wave height will dissipate, but not before causing dangerous shipping conditions throughout the region. Storm will change the weather pattern across the continental United States and New England Next weekMap below is the incredible wave height forecast off the Aleutian Islands

 

1639v1_20141107-WaveWatch

 

 


The weather has been crazy lately…but not really

November 6th, 2014 at 5:33 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

There have been some impressive temperature swings over the past couple of weeks.  During the middle of last week (October 27 and October 28), we had temperatures in the 70s.  A few days later on Sunday, we had a rain/snow mix in Providence and they were clearing snow off of the field at Gillette! Here is a picture from Freetown, Mass on Sunday morning courtesy of Derek Adesso.

derek-adesso_East_Freetown

Based on the up and down temperatures, I have been hearing this comment frequently, “Wow, the weather has been really crazy lately!” Part of me agrees; I took the AC units out of my windows a few weeks ago and I was kind of wishing I had them back in during the warm weather last week.  However, it seems that every year around this time, I get the “this weather is crazy” comment.  This led me to the following question:  If these wild temperature swings are something that happen at this time every year, is the weather this year really THAT crazy?

To determine if this year was especially crazy, I decided to look at temperatures over the past 5 years from October 27 (when our warm spell started this year) into the first week of November (around the present).  Basically, I am looking at temperatures over the past 2 weeks to look for differences between this year and past years. 

 

RECAP OF THE PAST 5 YEARS: LATE OCTOBER TO EARLY NOVEMBER (Using NWS data from TF Green Airport)

This year (2014): As I mentioned above, we had all kinds of weather the past couple of weeks.  After highs in the mid 70s last week, we had some snow with temperatures in the mid 30s this past Sunday morning.  But then it was back to the upper 60s yesterday (Wednesday), and now I am sitting with a cold rain coming down outside the window with temperatures in the 40s.

2013: During  the end of October, high temperatures generally ranged from the mid 50s to mid 60s.  But on November 1st, we hit a high of 70.  Four days later, overnight lows dipped to the mid 20s and and highs only made it to 50.

2012: The last 5 days of October were balmy with 3 days in the upper 60s, but by November 5th, highs were only in the mid 40s and overnight lows were below freezing. 

2011: This was the year of SNOW-TOBER with several inches of snow falling on the night of October 29th into the morning of October 30th. But that snow didn’t stick around very l0ng: by November 3rd we were back into the 60s.  On November 8, we reached 70!

2010: October went out like a blowtorch with a high of 71 on October 27th and a high of 77 on October 28th.  But November put an end to all of that with highs in the low 50s and lows in the 20s by November 3. 

CONCLUSION: LATE OCTOBER INTO EARLY NOVEMBER FREQUENTLY HAS BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS

While the temperature roller coaster might be a little more extreme this year, it’s a ride that we have been on many times before.  From a meteorological perspective, this makes sense because during this time of year, we are susceptible to arctic blasts from the north, but also milder (and sometimes tropical) air masses from the south.  So while the fluctuating weather often feels kind of crazy, it’s a craziness that is as almost as regular as the changing of the seasons.

WHAT IS NORMAL?

Historically for the past two weeks, NORMAL high temperatures are in the upper 50s.  But the word NORMAL is kind of deceiving, because it makes it seem like high temperatures are USUALLY in the upper 50s.  You can think of the normal temperatures more like an average (technically, it’s not an exact average but it’s close enough for the purpose of this blog).   To get the average, you have some numbers that are above the average, some that are below the average, and some that fall right at average.

Thanks for reading and hopefully the rest of the week isn’t too crazy for you! -Pete Mangione

 


Colder Than Normal Stretch Ahead

November 4th, 2014 at 2:17 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It has always amazed me how a storm system on one side of the Earth can impact the weather on the other side.  This will be the case during the next 10 days.

First, here’s the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for the next 6-10days.   The blue and red represent the amount of confidence the forecaster has in whether it will be cooler or warmer than normal.   Notice the higher confidence in cooler-than-normal temperatures in the eastern half of the country during the period November 9-13.

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Part of the reason why is on the other side of the world.

Nuri

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Season’s First Snow

November 2nd, 2014 at 11:40 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Most communities in Southern New England saw snow on Sunday.  Most saw just snow flakes mixing with rain while others saw some accumulations.   The accumulating snow was mainly limited to Southeastern Massachusetts, and mainly on the grass and decks.

Courtesy Derek Adesso:  East Freetown Snow

Courtesy Derek Adesso: East Freetown Snow

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Here are some snow totals from across the area on Sunday.

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Storm Not Quite Done: Sunday Update

November 2nd, 2014 at 9:55 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

It’s been a windy and wild past 24 hours and we still have to get through more wind and rain before we are completely done with this storm.  In fact, some snow flakes have been mixing with the rain this morning…we have received reports in Warren, Coventry,  and Greenville.  I also noticed some very light flakes mixing with the rain from our City Cam in Providence when we were on the air this morning.

Here is a look at some of the strongest wind gusts which occurred overnight:

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As for what to expect for the rest of the day, here is a timeline:

Morning Until 1pM:

Showers (heavy at times will continue through about noon).  The showers will tend to be a bit heavier south and east of I-95.  Some snow will mix with the rain at times, although little to no accumulation is expected.  We will have to keep an eye on eastern Bristol County Mass and Plymouth County Mass into the early afternoon (Fall River, New Bedford, and points east)….these locations have a chance of getting a coating to an inch or 2 of snow.

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Winds will continue to be strong, gusting between 30 and 45 mph.  Some additional isolated wind damage and power outages are possible.

 

1PM Until 7PM:

The showers (and snow mix) will start to move out from west to east.  Providence and points west should be done with the precipitation by early afternoon, areas east of Providence could hang onto it until 2 or 3 PM.

PeteBlog3

The gusts will continue to be busy with 30-40 mph gusts, although we will start to get on the low end of this range by 7PM.

It should be a dry kickoff for the Pats/Broncos, but dress in layers because the wind will make it FEEL like it’s in the 30s even though actual temperatures will be in the 40s around kickoff.  Winds will likely be gusting 30-40 mph at kickoff, and then 20-30 mph by the then of the game.  Therefore, the 2nd half may not be QUITE as affected (passing and kicking game) by the wind as the first half.

 After 7PM:

Although it will still be breezy, the rain/snow will be over and the wind will drop below advisory levels.  Into Monday morning, temperatures will drop to around freezing….bundle up Monday morning! -Pete Mangione