Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca...

With the weather warming up in the coming weeks,its time to start thinking about planting.  Below are average dates for planting in our area.  The average date of our last frost around here is  April 26. Despite milder afternoons, you can still get chilly temperatures late at night and near dawn this time of year.

When determining the best planting dates in the spring for seeds, the date of the last spring frost is important to your success. Other factors can also influence planting dates, including soil temperature, altitude and slope of land, nearby waters, and day length.

A well-deserved stretch of above average temperatures is on the way for southern New Englanders early this week.  It’s been a while since we’ve seen the sort of highs we’re forecast–how long?? Nearly 6months.

Our last 70° or higher day was on

OCTOBER 20 when we hit a high of 74°!

Today, we will likely only hit highs in the 60s… but it is going to be a gorgeous day.  Lots of sun, lighter winds and inland temperatures in the mid 60s should make for a great day for outdoor activities.  It will be cooler at the coast with an afternoon sea breeze keeping highs near 58-60.

A front will remain across the northeast next few days… and while we’ll remain on the mild side of the front (hence Tuesday and Wednesdays highs in the 70s), it will be closer enough to give us a chance for an occasional shower.

Surface Map for 8pm Today

It looks like we’ll see one of those rounds of showers early Tuesday morning (between 2am and 8am) and yet another chance on Wednesday and Thursday–dry stretches and partial sun can be expected in between the shower threat.  As the front pushes south, cooler temperatures will move in for the end of the work week.

Some very mild air is moving in Tuesday.  However, there is a threat of a few showers and there is also some question of how fast the clouds can clear out.  Looking at the most recent data (on Sunday night), I think that early morning showers will clear out by afternoon giving us highs in the low 70s.  However, one of our reliable computer models is keeping a few showers around into the afternoon.  If that were to happen, temperatures would probably stay in the 60s.  That is why the forecast on Tuesday is a tricky one…so stay tuned to Michelle and Tony this week as we fine tune the details.  The graphic below shows two extreme scenarios….we will probably fall somewhere in between this range. -Pete Mangione

The Red Sox home opening is Monday, and the weather looks great! Temperatures should be in the low 60s at the time of the first pitch (2:05PM) under partly cloudy skies.  I think you should still plan on bringing the jacket…here’s why:

Although the game will start mild, it’s possible some late afternoon breezes off the ocean will make it into Fenway by the time you are leaving the game.  That being said…it will be an all around beautiful afternoon for baseball.  Go Sox! -Pete Mangione

Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Now that we are in April, the angle of the sun is getting higher, so its ability to warm the air is greater. However, we cant ignore the fact that we are surrounded by ocean that is still chilly, only 42 degrees.  Any component of wind coming in off the ocean (sea breeze) will offset the sun’s warming potential. Today was a good example of that with places like Newport almost 10 degrees cooler than places like Smithfield And Providence.

High Temperatures This Afternoon

Cool Marine Air In Blue Covers Southern 1/3 of Area Today

Today starts a stretch of milder, more seasonable days in southeastern New England.  It’s not a dramatic turn-around from the chill of the last few days, but we should be closer to “average” for early April…That puts our highs in the 50s and our overnight lows staying above freezing.

It should be a very pretty early spring day… with high pressure building to our south and a wind shift, we’re looking at dry and mainly sunny skies.

Surface Map 4/4

As Tony mentioned in his blog last night, we are tracking an area of low pressure that will track well south and east of our area tomorrow.  It still looks like Rhode Island and southeastern MA will be on the northern edge of the rain, with showers expected from about 8am Friday morning through about 3pm Friday afternoon.  The storm makes a quick exit… so we may even end the day with some sunshine.  It looks mild even with the clouds and showers around, highs in the mid to upper 50s.

The weather looks quiet and dry for the weekend with sunshine Saturday and more of a sun/cloud mix on Sunday.

Early next week, there will be a temperature battle going on over New England, with a cold front nearby that will wobble near or over central New England for a few days.  That front is going to be the dividing line between warmer than normal temperatures to the south  and cooler than normal temperatures to the north–60s and 70s vs 40s and 50s.  Our guidance this morning is at odds… with some showing our temperatures tempered by the front (ECMWF) and other GFS showing the front staying north and our temperatures soaring!  Right now, I’m leaning more towards the reliable ECMWF, and keeping our temperatures closer to 55-62 with hazy sun/clouds and a few showers around.  Stay tuned!

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist  Tony Petrarca….

Watching an offshore storm Friday which will graze our area with some rain…especially along the shore. Latest data shows this storm trending further offshore with less of an impact, just some rain showers. If the trend continues further out to sea, we would miss the rain all together. At this point, I am going to keep showers in the forecast. One of our more reliable computer models (RPM) shows the rain (in green) just clipping us Friday afternoon.  This does not look like a major impact storm with excessive rain or wind….

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

April in Southern New England can be a real “rollercoaster” ride with significant weather changes from day to day. Infact Today was a good example..in Providnce it was sunny and 60 at 2pm this afternoon, then 3 hours later the temperature dropped 15 degrees with rain.  April is a transition month from Winter to Spring, so it can be notorious for having warm temperatures one day, then much colder weather a few days later, only to get warmer several days later…

Below are some interesting weather charts which depict what an average April is like…

Temperature

The month of April is characterized by rapidly rising daily high temperatures, with daily highs increasing from 53°F to 63°F over the course of the month, exceeding 73°F or dropping below 43°F only one day in ten.

Snow

The likelihood of snow falling is highest around April 1, occurring in 12% of days

The Days Are Getting Longer….I Love It !!

The earliest sunrise is at 5:43am on April 30; the latest sunset is at 7:43pm on April 30; the latest sunrise is at 6:28am on April 1; the earliest sunset is at 7:12pm on April 1.

Over the course of April, the length of the day is increasing. From the start to the end of the month, the length of the day increases by 1:17 hours, implying an average day-over-day increase of 2.6 minutes.

The shortest day of the month is April 1 with 12:43 hours of daylight; the longest day is April 30 with 14:00 hours of daylight.

It’s a beautiful April 1st with another day of temperatures climbing into the upper 50s away from the coast.  A southwest wind this afternoon will keep the immediate shore in the low 50s… but overall it’s going to be a great early afternoon for outdoor activities.

If you have outdoor plans late day, you are going to want to watch for a changeable sky.  We’re timing the passage of a strong cold front for late afternoon and early evening that has the potential to bring some isolated stormy weather into our area.  Right now it looks like the best window of opportunity for showers, isolated thunder and isolated strong winds will be between 4-8pm in RI and exiting off of the Cape by 11pm.  Here’s a look at the 12z model run of the RPM for 6pm today.  It shows the scattered nature of the showers (not everyone sees one) and a few isolated heavier downpours/wind gusts/rumbles of thunder.  Winds could briefly gust to 40-50mph in any of these stronger cells.

RPM Valid 6pm Mon

Behind the cold front, temperatures will tumble on a gusty northwest wind.  Temperatures should be back into the 40s before sunset and fall all the way into the upper 20s by dawn tomorrow.

We’re back to sweater weather tomorrow and on Wednesday with temperatures only climbing into the low to mid 40s.  We should be back to more seasonable temperatures by Thursday afternoon.

Easter Sunday is looking okay here in Southern New England.

We’ll start the day with lots of sunshine and a sunrise temperature in the mid to upper 30′s.  Sunrise is at 6:26am. 

Through the morning, the sun will be shining brightly and the temps will be rebounding quickly…from the 30′s, through the 40′s and into the 50′s by noon.  Sunrise services will be chilly and morning Egg Hunts will be cool.

Temperature trend through Easter Sunday for Providence, RI.

The afternoon will feature a fading sun.  Clouds will be thickening through the afternoon, but we should stay dry.  The computer model projections for the onset of the precipitation are between 7 and 9pm.  It is possible that a stray shower may arrive before then, but expect generally dry weather through Easter.

RPM computer model projection of clouds and precipitation for Easter Sunday.

Happy Easter! -TJ Del Santo

Weak disturbance has been moving through this morning bringing a few light rain showers and extra clouds.  We won’t be as warm as yesterday, but it’s not a “washout” either.  In fact, hazy sun will break through the clouds at times. with highs in the upper 40s to near 50.

Our computer models are continuing to show a few showers popping up through the afternoon… they will be hit-or-miss, brief and generally light… with some sun peeking through at times.  This is the RPM Model showing those instability showers and how the radar may look around 3pm today.

RPM Model

We’ll get back on track with temperatures in the 50s for Friday. The day should begin with sunshine before clouds fill in through the afternoon.  There’s a small chance of a sprinkle in the afternoon, but most of us stay dry.

Easter bunny will be dropping off some pretty “egg-cellent” weather for the weekend.  An area of high pressure will build overhead on Saturday and should deliver plenty of sunshine Saturday and into  Sunday afternoon.  We’re still closely watching the timing of a cold front for Sunday night.  Our computer models have been speeding up the arrival of the front a little bit, with the rain showers possible 3-6hrs earlier.

What does that mean for your weekend plans?  Not much until after 5pm on Sunday, when showers will begin to threaten our area.  Here’s a look at this morning’s 06z GFS model valid at 8pm with the leading edge of showers  pushing into southeastern New England.

06z GFS Valid 8pm Sunday

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca..

When predicting temperatures one simple thing we look at is “Source Region”. Where is the air coming from…. what is the source?  Air that moves thru  our area can originate from Canada, Gulf Of Mexico, The Atlantic, Southern Plains, ect.  Of  late, our air masses have been moving in  from Canada, resulting in temperatures that have been averaging below normal….To get milder air, we need more of an air flow from the Southern Plains and or Gulf Of Mexico. A large scale southwest wind would draw upon milder air from this source region. The weather pattern of late has not favored any air masses from the south moving in.  However, a slight moderation in temperature is expected this weekend, BUT, the air from Canada will move back in by next week, bringing cool days and cold nights.

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

An interesting comparison on the snow cover on the ground right now (almost 47% of the U.S.) compared to this time last year…wow! Look at the bare ground in 2012.  Not much snow last Winter, and Spring came early in 2012. Infact the ice had already melted on New Hampshire’s largest lake, Winnipesaukee,  one of the earliest ice melts there in 100 years last year. That lake is still covered in ice right now

No big changes to the forecast for today…. storm system that’s dumping snow from Pittsburgh to DC looks like it will continue on a track over our ocean waters well south of southern New England.  In fact, some of the new computer guidance flowing in this morning now show just a few light showers making it into RI/SE MA this afternoon and overnight.  It may be a mix of both rain and snow showers during the day and then snow showers tonight.  The chance of seeing showers will be highest between 8pm and 2am… where a few communities could see a quick coating of snow on grassy surfaces and car tops.  It looks like this final week of April will feature a blend of clouds and sun with normal, or slightly cooler than normal temperatures.

It looks like the bulk of the snow will stay offshore with the next ocean storm that will make a close pass on Monday.  However, it still looks like we will get “grazed” by the outer edge of the storm.  What does this mean for Monday?

10AM to 2PM: The potential of rain or snow showers moves in.  As temperatures stay above freezing, snow should not stick much to roads. 

2PM to 7PM: Off and on rain or snow showers.  It will still have a hard time sticking ot the roads.

7PM Monday to 7AM Tuesday: The chance of snow continues.  At this point, any snow that falls has a chance of sticking to the roads.  However, because snow is expected to be light, most areas will only get a coating.  Some areas may not even make it to a coating.

THIS STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.  If the storm shifts a little to the north, we would have to up snow accumulations, especially at the south coast. -Pete Mangione

If I were handing out letter grades, today would have gotten a “B”… the sunshine was nice, but the howling winds kept us feeling winter’s chill.  Tomorrow shows improvement—a “B+”… In fact, it is one of the nicest weekend days we’ve had in some time.  There should be even more sunshine, less wind and slightly (+2-3 degrees) milder temperatures.  We’re still not able to shed our warm coats… or make it to the average high for late March (50F), but overall, it will be pleasant.

Sunday Afternoon

The latest computer guidance on Monday’s storm continues to point at a southerly track–one that supports the bulk of an ocean storm staying off-shore.  It’s a storm that will deliver quite a bit of rain and snow to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic… but it looks like that heavy precipitation will stay over the ocean.  That said, the pleasant weather from Sunday will be replaced by cloudy skies, cool temperatures and some light rain/snow showers for Monday afternoon and night.

Its still possible for some small accumulations on Monday evening/night…. maybe a coating to an 1-2″ on grassy surfaces and car tops.  Best chance would be near the coast and into SE MA.  Based on the current forecast, much heavier precipitation will be just south… so we’ll have to watch for any jog in the track closer to the coast, which could bring heavier precip (more snow) into our area.

RPM Model Valid Monday 8pm

We always show high and low temperatures when giving you a forecast.  However, sometimes the “actual” temperatures don’t tell the entire story.  This is especially true for today, where wind chills will stay in the 30s during the afternoon because of of gusts between 20 to 30 mph.  Below is a wind chill forecast:

We are still watching a storm for Monday. At this point, it’s likely that we will at least get “grazed” by some light snow or rain.  However, we need to keep watching this…should the storm track further north, this would be a more significant event.  In the meantime, enjoy the weekend!

-Pete Mangione

Every where I go I’m getting asked, “when is it going to warm up”.  It has been a long, hard winter in southern New England and some coastal communities were forced to break out the shovels once again this morning.  That overnight snow event was a case of “have” and “have nots”… with Providence, Warwick, NW RI with little more than a dusting of snow and Aquidneck Island, SE MA, Cape Cod picking up more than a half of a foot in spots!  Check out this ReportIt photo that was sent in to our newsroom from Rhonda in Fairhaven, MA:  

Here’s a look at some of the snowfall totals we received from last night’s storm.  It was highly localized heavier bands of snow, so even from one part of a town or city to the other there were differences in the accumulations.

So when will it finally start to feel like Spring?  We’re hopeful it will be in early April.  Our computer models showing more cold, unsettled weather through Easter Sunday,  but check out this update from the Climate Prediction Center about how the month of April is setting up.  It calls for warmer than average temperatures in New England.  Yippee!!

April Temperature Probability

A mixed bag of weather so far on this Thursday afternoon….some have seen sun, others have seen snow, and many have seen both sun and snow at the same time!

Let’s break down the rest of today and tonight:

THIS AFTERNOON: Off and on light snow or rain showers.  Most of this will not stick to roads; there might be a few exceptions along and north and west of 295 where temperatures have been hanging around the freezing mark.  There is also a potential of a few isolated steadier bands of snow, especially by late afternoon.

THIS EVENING: Better chance of some steadier snow, although it’s not snowing the entire time.  As temperatures drop, snow will start to stick.  Therefore, we will give you the YELLOW light on the evening commute because of the potential of slick roads and periods of poor visibility. Most likely locations to pick up isolated heavier snow bands would be the southeast RI shore into eastern Mass.

OVERNIGHT: Chance of snow….what falls will stick…so use caution driving. 

Because there will be “skinny” snow bands moving through, many areas will end up with only a coating to about an inch. However, you may have a neighbor that lives just a few miles away that gets several inches.  This is important to keep in mind when looking at our 1-3″ shaded blue area below; most areas will be closer to the 1″ amount. 

We have to watch this closely….any skinny band of snow that sets up has the potential of producing even 4″ + inches of snow.  I am not saying this is going to happen but the potential is there….these are always very tough forecasts! Please see our summary and forecast graphics below. -Pete Mangione

By Friday Morning

Snow. Snow. Snow.  It’s a word many of us have grown tired of hearing/saying/seeing in southern New England.  It’s the winter that just keeps going, with more light snow in the forecast for today… and even a few inches of accumulating snow for some tonight. And now, there are at least some accolades to go along with this incessant winter weather pattern.  The National Weather Service says Worcester, MA was  the snowiest city in the US for the winter of 2012-13 with 108.9″ of snow.  This is for cities with more than 100, 000 inhabitants.  Not Anchorage, Alaska,  Syracuse, New York, Erie, PA or even Denver, Colorado could top Worcester’s total this year.

We’ve seen less than half of the amount of Worcester’s snow at TF Green Airport where RI’s official weather records are kept. Our total for the season is 46.3″, which doesn’t even place in the top 10 snowiest winters.  However; it’s still a stark contrast to last year’s less than 18″ of snow and 76° High on March 21.

I haven’t made any signifant changes to the forecast that Tony had last night… other than to adjust the higher snow band westward slightly to include parts of southern RI.  It still looks like a narrow band of 2-3″ snow fall totals will occur somewhere in our area with an isolated 4-5″ total possible…. there will be little to no accumulation on either side of that band.  We’ll be keeping a close eye on the radar this evening and tonight, to see where exactly the bursts of snow are and may have to make some additional adjustments to the forecast.

By Friday Morning

While most of the snow will melt as it hits the pavement before sunset this evening, the arrival of heavier bursts of snow may coincide with the evening commute and slow the trip home from work.  In addition, tomorrow morning’s commute could feature some slick spots as showers taper off before 8am for most and skies turn partly sunny.

This Evening’s Commute

Good morning from Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca:

The map below shows our weather set up for a narrow band of snow Thursday Evening/Night. While the 2nd map below this text may look confusing, I will walk you thru what we are analyzing and make it simple.     So….here we go with weather lesson 101:

This map is a “streamline” map. It shows how the air near the surface is flowing and in what direction.  Notice how the air flow converges into one narrow zone over Southern New England. The red dot represents Providence. The zone or axis of where the air meets or collides is called a “NorLun Trough”  (the “Lun” in that word is short for Lundestedt, the last name of my roommate in weather school who actually coined this word many years ago)

Converging air is forced to rise….the faster moist air rises in the atmosphere, the more conducive it is in creating rain, or in this case snow. Here is the tricky part. Usually with Norlun situations, the zone of snow is very narrow in width. The exact location and duration of this weather feature will determine how much snow will fall. I have seen NorLun cases where one town may get 6″ of snow while a town only 10-15 miles away gets only a dusting.  The likely zone of snow from this on Thursday evening will be south  and east of Providence and especially across Southeast Massachusetts.

The other map below is an early call on snow fall accumulations Thursday Night….keep in mind how difficult pinpointing the exact location of the narrow snow band, so stay tuned to forecasts. The snowfall rates may be heavy, but at the same times localized in nature, covering only a small area.

Welcome to the first day of Spring! If you are a fan of mild weather, it’s probably not the kind of start you were hoping for.  The start of spring brings the potential of a HUGE range of temperatures.  We can still be affected by winter air masses from the north, but warm air masses from the south also can make their way into New England.   

Here is a look back at the first day of spring for the past 5 years; data is from TF Green Airport. 

2008    High Temp: 56     Low Temp: 35         Rain: 0.34”         Snow: 0.00”

2009     High Temp: 42     Low Temp: 28         Rain: 0.00”         Snow: 0.00”

2010      High Temp: 73     Low Temp: 39          Rain: 0.00”        Snow: 0.00”

2011       High Temp: 46     Low Temp: 28          Rain: 0.00″         Snow: 0.00″

2012      High Temp: 78    Low Temp: 44          Rain: 0.00″         Snow: 0.00″

Notice how it only rained once.  Also, notice how temperatures reached the 70s on 2 of the 5 days! (Sorry, not even close this year). -Pete Mangione

The National Weather Service sent out a nice tweet yesterday (saving me a few minutes of work for this blog which I had planned to do anyway this morning).  They listed the Top 10 Snowiest Winters of the major cities in Southern New England.  Here are the Top Snowiest Winters for Providence:

1. 1995-96:         106.1″
2. 1947-1948:      75.6″
3. 2004-2005:     72.2″
4. 1906-1907:      71.4″
5. 1977-1978:     70.2″
6. 1993-1994:      63.5″
7. 1960-1961:      62.7″
8. 1966-1967:      58.1″
9. 1944-1945:      56.7″
10. 1989-1990:      56.2″

2″ of snow fell in East Providence between March 18th and March 19th.

A short time ago, TF Green Airport reported 2.6″ of snow with this storm, bringing the total up to 46.3″ of snow on the season.  That’s about 10″ short of cracking the Top 10 Snowiest Seasons in Providence.   As I’ve mentioned in a previous blog post today, Winter’s Staying Put!   We will likely have at least 2 or 3 more chances of snow this year….picking up another 10″ is not impossible!

-T.J. Del Santo

Latest reports...a mix of National Weather Service reports 
and what we have received here at WPRI.  

Let us know how much fell in your driveway!

RHODE ISLAND

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   BARRINGTON             2.5   604 AM  3/19  HAM RADIO
   BRISTOL                2.0   545 AM  3/19  HAM RADIO

...KENT COUNTY...
   WEST WARWICK           4.0   630 AM  3/19  HAM RADIO
   COVENTRY               3.0   349 AM  3/19  HAM RADIO
   COVENTRY               2.0   700 AM 

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
   PORTSMOUTH             2.7   644 AM  3/19  TRAINED SPOTTER

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...
   WEST GLOCESTER         4.0   643 AM  3/19  
   HOPE                   3.0   345 AM  3/19 
   GREENVILLE             3.0   635 AM  3/19  GENERAL PUBLIC
   PROVIDENCE/NORTH PRO   2.7   648 AM  3/19  GENERAL PUBLIC
   WOONSOCKET             2.4   700 AM  3/19  MEDIA
   EAST PROVIDENCE        2.0   307 AM  3/19  EMERGENCY MANAGER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   SOUTH KINGSTOWN        3.0   209 AM  3/19  TRAINED SPOTTER

MASSACHUSETTS

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   TAUNTON                3.0   700 AM  3/19  NWS OFFICE
   REHOBOTH               2.0   708 AM  3/19  COCORAHS
   SWANSEA                2.0   707 AM  3/19  TRAINED SPOTTER
   TAUNTON 2NW            2.0   458 AM  3/19  NWS EMPLOYEE
   NEW BEDFORD            1.5   403 AM  3/19  HAM RADIO

-T.J. Del Santo

In 24 hours, it will officially be spring in the Northern Hemisphere.  At 7:02am on Wednesday, the sun’s direct rays will be shining on the equator.  Mother nature didn’t get the memo about the beginning of Meteorological Spring (March 1st) or Astronomical Spring.  Instead, long range computer models indicate we will see this pattern of cold weather continue for awhile. 

We have the potential for more snow on Thursday/Friday.  Below is the latest European computer model.  The American GFS computer model is similar to this solution with a trof of low pressure hanging over Southern New England.   As far as how much, it’s possible another few inches are possible in Providence (maybe higher amounts over Southeaster Massachusetts). 

European Computer Model for Thursday night/Friday Morning indicating the possibility of more snow

So where is the spring-like weather?  It’s definitely not here and there is no indication it will be arriving in the next 2 weeks.  The biggest reason why is something called the NAO or the North Atlantic Oscillation.  The NAO is a whether phenomenon in the North Atlantic which can fluctuate in time.  Forecasts are usually only reliable for about 2-3 weeks ahead of time.  Below is the forecast of the NAO for the next 2 weeks….notice how the redline stays negative.  Negative NAO for us means cold.  While we may get some brief reprieves from the cold during hte next few weeks, don’t expect any prolonged stretches of beautiful spring weather soon.

Graph of the observed (black line) and forecasted (red lines) of the North Atlantic Oscillation

So, Easter will likely be chilly and even into April, we are likely to see some cooler than normal temps.  Notice the trend of the red line, however.  It will start headed toward a positive NAO in early April.  Keep your fingers crossed!

-T.J. Del Santo

In Rhode Island and Bristol County, MA we are seeing a mixed bag of precipitation.  At 5am, there is rain and freezing rain along the south shore, and a large area of sleet (ice pellets) just inland from the coast to about Route 295.  North and west of Route 295, expect the snow to hang around longer and accumulations will be a little bit higher there. 

Snow totals so far from National Weather Service and WPRI weather spotters

RHODE ISLAND

…KENT COUNTY…
    WEST WARWICK       4.0
    WEST WARWICK       3.0  
    COVENTRY                  3.0  

…PROVIDENCE COUNTY…
    HOPE                             3.0
    N. SMITHFIELD        2.5
   GREENVILLE              2.2  
   E. PROVIDENCE        2.0  

…WASHINGTON COUNTY…
   S. KINGSTOWN        3.0  

MASSACHUSETTS

…BRISTOL COUNTY…
   NEW BEDFORD         1.5   
   TAUNTON                  1.5   

-T.J. Del Santo

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca…

I am tracking a developing storm near the Mid Atlantic Coast at this hour…it will bring snow sleet and rain next 12-18 hours. The atmosphere is plenty cold enough for all snow later this evening and overnight, however, slightly milder air will be drawn in by Tuesday morning and that will result in a transition over to sleet and then “plain rain”, first in our southern suburbs, several hours later northern Rhode Island. Before the transition to sleet and rain, snow will accumulate to 1-2″ along the shore….2-4″ inland including, Warwick, Cranston and the Providence Metro area. North and west of Providence (especially NW of Route 295), 4 to 6 inches of snow is expected by late Tuesday morning.

This messy weather will have a high impact on the Tuesday morning commute, especially inland areas. Allow for some extra travel time. There may be cancellations and/or delays in those areas that see mostly snow rather than rain. Precipitation will switch back briefly to snow Tuesday evening in northern suburbs before ending.

As a late season winter storm gets ready to head into New England tonight, we are reminiscing about where we were at this time last year.  It was an early taste of summer warmth March 18-23… with temperatures running 30-40° warmer than this year.  I remember taking my kids to the beach for the first time and they actually played in the water!

March 2012

I have been getting lots of questions over the last few weeks about WHEN we are going to start to warm up.  Unfortunately, we aren’t seeing a lot of change in the weather pattern through the end of the month.  A large trough in the jet stream will continue to allow cooler than normal temperatures to flow into the eastern US, and we’ll have to keep an eye out for more late season wintry weather.

Temperature Probability for March 25-31

Good Monday morning,

New data continues to flow into the Pinpoint Weather Center this morning, giving us growing confidence in a period of wintry weather from late this evening through tomorrow morning before changing to plain rain.

In fact, the National Weather Service this morning upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for Northern RI, where our highest snowfall accumulations are expected—as much as 4-6″ of snow and sleet.  In addition, the Providence Metro area through Kent and South Counties, along with northern Bristol County, MA are now under a Winter Weather Advisory.  The Alerts are for 9pm this evening through 11am Tuesday.

We are most concerned about messy travel conditions for tomorrow morning’s commute.

TIMING:  Snow arrives between 8pm and 12am.

          Changing to Rain from south to north between 6am and 11am Tuesday

         Periods of Rain in the Afternoon will taper off most areas by 8pm

ACCUMULATIONS:  NW RI–4-6″

                                Central  RI to Northern Bristol Cty MA–2-4″

                                Coastal RI/MA–Coating to 2″

RAINFALL:  Additional 0.5″ to 1″ of  rain after the changeover

WINDS:  East winds 10-20mph with gusts to 35mph

COASTAL FLOODING:  Not an issue because tides will not be astronomically high.  We catch a break in this regard

RIVER FLOODING:  We’ll watch local rivers and streams, however, right now rainfall amounts are not expected to be heavy enough to cause flooding of our major rivers–Pawtuxet, Blackstone, Pawcatuck.

Sunday will be a little brighter than Saturday but it will also be breezier.  With afternoon wind chills in the 30s, sunglasses and jackets required if you are outside celebrating St Patrick’s Day.  The parade in West Warwick looks good!

Tomorrow (Monday) night, another storm will approach the area.  It will start as snow/sleet and then change to rain.  The coast will change to rain first, inland areas will take longer to change over.  As of now, I am thinking snow accumulations are likely north and west of 295; they are possible south of 295 but the chances are lower in this region.  We need to look at more information before we start putting out numbers and snow maps.  Regardless of snow amounts, the Tuesday morning commute will be messy and slow. -Pete Mangione