Tony’s Pinpoint Weather Blog

Wild Wednesday: Morning Recap, Afternoon Outlook

August 13th, 2014 at 3:10 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heavy rain moved in this morning creating problems on many of our roads.  The heaviest of the rain ran along and to the west of I-95.  There were many reports of street flooding, especially in Cranston, Coventry, and Providence.  Here are a few pictures sent via our ReportIt feature.

CoventryFloodingBlog

 Coventry Flooding: Courtesy Shannon Moore

 

 

CranstonFloodingPic

Cranston Flooding

 

Our rainfall amounts ranged from about 1 to 4.5 inches.  Here are some totals as of Wednesday afternoon:

 

NewRainBlog

I put in the Islip (Long Island, NY)  number because it is such an incredible amount of rain! The Long Island Expressway was not a good place to be this morning!

 

WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING?

While the rain won’t be nearly as steady and as widespread as this morning, there will still be a threat of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.  A few of the storms could be strong with a small chance of damaging wind.  The threat of showers and rain should be gone by midnight (possibly a few hours sooner).

Our weather improves tomorrow and Friday with low humidity and comfortable temperatures. Have a good afternoon and evening! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 


Heavy Rain, Flash Flood Threat This Morning

August 13th, 2014 at 9:35 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Heavy rain has moved into a good part of our viewing area.  A Flash Flood Warning is in place for much of Providence and Kent County.  These warning are in effect until 1:15 this afternoon.

I just looked at the observations at TF Green airport….between 8AM and 9AM 0.91 inches of rain fell, that is almost an inch per hour.

Here are some initial reports coming in courtesy of SKYWARN from the National Weather Service:

East Lyme, CT: 3.90″

Montville, CT: 4.84″

Canterbury, CT: 2.94″

Willimantic, CT: 2.04″

Cranston, RI: 1.56″

East Lyme, CT: 4.15″

Hebron, CT: 2.05″

Hampton, CT: 2.05″

Cranston, RI: 1.61″

 

Rainfall Reports (1″ or more):

Providence, RI: 1.38″

Coventry, RI:: 1.24″

 

Flood Reports:

924 AM: Cranston, RI: Cranston Street between Batcheller Avenue and Cavalry Street closed due to the flooding

 

Once we get into this afternoon, there will still be a threat of showers and downpours but there will likely be some lulls in the rain as well.  The Flash Flood Watch extends through this evening to account for the “potential” of additional flash flooding, even though it will not be raining the entire time.

Please do NOT drive through flooded intersections! -Pete Mangione

 


Heavy Rain Moves Across RI /SE MA This Morning

August 13th, 2014 at 7:52 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’ve been watching an incredible flash flood event developing over parts of LI and CT this morning, with more than a foot of rain in Islip, NY on Long Island…. flash flooding has shut down numerous streets and lead to water rescues there.  Check out this photo from the Weather Channel’s Stephanie Abrams:

temp 2

Islip, NY

That band of heavy rain will continue to lift northeast across RI and southeastern MA through the morning and early afternoon.  Our computer models are still indicating the potential for 1-3″ of rain in our area, with isolated higher amounts possible.  Here’s one look at potential rainfall totals from the RPM model this morning.  temp 3


Periods Of Heavy Rain, Thunder Wednesday

August 12th, 2014 at 7:23 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca….

High resolution satellite photo from this evening shows storm over Great Lakes with a secondary storm forming off the Mid Atlantic coast. Both will play a part in our weather for Wednesday….

Wednesday Outlook:

. Heavy Rain: Confidence High

. Minor Coastal Flooding: Confidence High, but does not look to be major

. Thunderstorms: Confidence High

. “Severe” Thunderstorms/Damaging WindConfidence Low to Moderate (stay tuned for updates regarding this)

 

vzz


Flash Flood Watch Expanded

August 12th, 2014 at 12:49 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The National Weather Service has expanded the Flash Flood Watch to include all of RI and southeastern MA except for the Cape and Islands as our computer models continue to show the potential for heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms with a potent storm system moving through New England on Wednesday.

temp 1

We are still forecasting 1-3″ of rain for most of our area, though isolated higher amounts are possible.  Here’s the 12z RPM model precipitation forecast for rainfall totals:  temp 2

In addition, our coastline is now under a “Coastal Flood Advisory” for the potential for minor flooding during tomorrow mornings high tide around 10am-11am.  The combination of an astronomical high tide and a strong southeast wind could cause minor splash over at south and east facing coastlines. temp 3


Wednesday Storm Update

August 12th, 2014 at 9:47 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We’ll squeeze in one more dry day before a storm system moves in and brings heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms to our area starting later tonight and into Wednesday.  We could certainly use the rainfall as parts of our area have been abnormally dry; however, the rain could be heavy enough to overwhelm storm drains leading to localized street and poor drainage flooding along with smaller stream flooding.

The highest risk of seeing flash flooding is across inland parts of southern New England, where rainfall rates of up to 2″/hr are possible. As of this morning, northwest RI and the Boston suburbs were included in a “Flash Flood Watch” for late tonight through Wednesday evening.  temp 1It looks like our best shot of getting widespread rain and thunder will be from mid-morning through late afternoon. In addition, there’s the risk–though small–for some severe thunderstorms.  This morning, the Storm Prediction Center highlighted southern RI and SE MA as an area that could see severe weather tomorrow–with damaging wind gusts and even an isolated tornado possible. temp 1

Finally, we could see some minor flooding along the coast and bay during tomorrow morning’s high tide. High tide in Newport Harbor is at around 10:30am.  The astronomically high tide due to the nearly full moon, combined with a stiff southeast wind may lead to minor flooding.  temp 2


Stormy Weather Late Tuesday Night Into Wednesday

August 11th, 2014 at 4:30 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good afternoon from chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca…our weather  dept continues to monitior the potential for severe weather late Tuesday Night into Wednesday…the following items we continue to track along the National Weather Service In Taunton Mass…

       Heavy Rain/Flooding Potential:

  • Flash Flood Watch for late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon. The watch includes the following areas:
  •      Cheshire County in southwest New Hampshire
  •      Western and central Massachusetts
  •      Northern Connecticut
  •      Northwest Rhode Island
  • Bands of heavy rainfall with some embedded thunderstorms may cause localized urban/poor drainage flash flooding as well as a risk of flash flooding along a few small streams.
  • In coastal areas, any urban flooding may be exacerbated during high tide, which may inhibit drainage.  High tides in association with the “super moon” will be astronomically high during Wednesday.
  • Widespread river flooding is not expected.  Main stem river flows are quite low going into this event.
  • Potential  widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across southern New England Tuesday night into Wednesday with pockets of 3 to 5 inches possible.

        Severe Weather:

  • Localized strong gusty winds are possible especially during the daylight hours Wednesday.
  • A brief tornado is also possible. This is a low probability event, but the expected weather pattern on Wednesday is a type that could produce a short track tornado.  Timing on any such occurrence during the day remains uncertain, with low confidence at this time of any one area more at risk than another. 

         Coastal Flooding:

  • The combination of high spring tides and fairly significant onshore winds may result in pockets of minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide on Wednesday.
  • Highest risk for any coastal flooding along the south coast will be around the time of the Wednesday mid morning high tide. 

             Highest risk for any coastal flooding along the east coast will be around the time of the Wednesday afternoon high tide…….

           ……”National Weather Service  Taunton, Mass.


Stormy Day on Wednesday

August 11th, 2014 at 11:21 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As Pete Mangione mentioned  in the previous blog, the ingredients are coming together for a potentially stormy day on Wednesday.  An area of low pressure currently over the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through New England by Wednesday with a new storm developing along the front.

Surface Map valid at 8am Wednesday

Forecast Surface Map for 8am Wednesday

The set up gives us the potential for periods of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms.  Right now the forecast is for as much as 1-2.5″ of rain in New England.

Forecast Rainfall Amounts for Wednesday

Forecast Rainfall Amounts for Wednesday

Heavy rain could lead to localized street and poor drainage flooding, and potentially some dangerous flash flooding.  In addition, any embedded thunderstorms will bring torrential downpours and possibly damaging winds.  Timing of the heaviest rainfall in Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts looks to be Wednesday morning and afternoon…. tapering off in the evening.  Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to monitor this potential severe weather day.


Watching Wednesday for Strong Storms

August 10th, 2014 at 9:25 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

There is a threat of some severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.  Here is a breakdown of what we know, and what we need to fine tune:

WHAT WE KNOW

-A humid air mass will move in during the middle of the week.

-Low pressure, series of fronts , and an active jet stream will also move in during the same time period.

-When you combine the above ingredients, severe weather becomes a possibility.

-Torrential downpours, lightning, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes are possible.

 

WHAT WE NEED TO FINE TUNE:

-How well do the storm ingredients come together? This will make the difference between a very active weather day and a day with just a few non-severe thunderstorms and rain showers.

-What is the timing? It looks like there is a threat of severe weather anytime from early Wednesday morning to Wednesday evening.  As we get closer to Wednesday, we should be able to determine which commute (morning or evening) is at a higher risk of being affected.

STAY TUNED THIS WEEK

Tony, Michelle, TJ, and I will be looking at more data this week.  Tune in for our on-air and online coverage to get more specifics.   Have a good week! -Pete Mangione

BlogWed

 

 

 


Super Weather This Evening for the Super Moon

August 10th, 2014 at 9:15 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Today will be beautiful here in Southern New England — lots of warm sunshine with low humidity.

Once you’re home from the beach or out of the pool, you might want to check out the “Super Moon” — the closest the moon will be to the Earth this year.  I think the weather will cooperate, too.

There will be a piece of energy dropping down from Northern New England today. You can see it in the image below (yellow, orange and red).

500mb

 

This will help create some rain showers for parts of New Hampshire, Maine and northeastern Massachusetts, but that’s about it.   Any showers should be isolated up there, and they’ll likely stay out of our area.

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Cloud-wise for RI and nearby MA, there will be some clouds especially east of Providence.  Our computer models indicate there will be some moisture in the atmosphere at 850mb and 725mb (approximately 5,000 to 8,000feet up).   This will translate into partly cloudy skies this evening.  Below is the relative humidity in the atmosphere all the way up to about 40,000feet.  Notice the pinkish area this evening…that’s high relative humidity over Providence.  I think dry air aloft will help keep our skies in good enough condition to see the moon, especially as it rises.  Times run from left to right on the graph…UTC is Greenwich Mean Time (4hours difference from us).

rel_hum

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Another Nice Day on Sunday

August 9th, 2014 at 10:50 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Saturday’s weather was fantastic, and we’ll get another great day on Sunday.

An area of high pressure will be sliding overhead through the day.  High pressure promotes sinking air, and it’s tougher to make the clouds and therefore tougher to get precipitation.   There will be a little piece of energy in the upper-levels moving southward from Maine/New Hamphire.  This may scare up a few extra clouds across eastern parts of our area, but that’s about it.   We’ll be staying dry.

Fcst_Map3_650x366

Winds will start from the north as the high center builds into New England, but those winds will become more onshore during the afternoon with a developing sea breeze.   Temperatures will be a little cooler at the coast, but it will be nice everywhere with low humidity.  The weather looks good for seeing the “Super Moon” Sunday evening and for Perseid Meteor watching early Monday morning.

rpm_temps_650x366

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The nice weather will continue through Monday and into Tuesday.  We could potentially see a washout on Wednesday.  If you picked this week for vacation, you did pretty good.  Wednesday may be a book-reading, chore-doing, movie-watching kind of day though.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Perseid Meteors Peak Next Few Nights

August 9th, 2014 at 9:40 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

One of the best meteor showers of the year will peak August 9-14 — the Perseid Meteor Shower.   They are best seen after midnight and during this time of the summer, it’s comfortable to be outside and stargaze.  In a dark sky, you could see 50 meteors per hour.  This year, we’ll have the full “Super Moon” and waning gibbous moon to dim some of the meteors.

Sometimes you can see a few after 9pm as the constellation Perseus rises over the horizon, but the best show always arrives after midnight.

What are the Perseid Meteors?

Meteors are tiny bits of rock, usually the size of a piece of dust or as large as a pebble, that burn up in the atmosphere as the Earth plows through the debris in space.  They get their name because of the constellation they appear to come from — Perseus.  This debris is actually from a comet, Comet Swift-Tuttle.

Courtesy: NASA

Courtesy: NASA

The comet passes through the inner solar system once every 134 years.  It spends most of its time hanging out past the orbit of Pluto in an area known as the Kuiper Belt — an area of space filled with many pieces of rock, likely left over from the development of the Solar System.  The last visit was in 1992.  During each passage, the comet sheds gases and debris as it gets closer to the sun.  That debris is left floating in space.

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From August 9-14th, the Earth passes through this debris field, and the tiny bits of rock light up in the atmosphere.

Perseid_Explainer_650x366

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Super Moon Sunday

August 9th, 2014 at 8:16 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Get your cameras ready! This year’s “Super Moon” is coming to a sky near you.  Here in Southern New England, the moon will rise at 7:36pm on Sunday and will appear bigger than other full moons we’ve had this year.

Astronomy_650x366

What is a Super Moon?

The moon has an elliptical orbit around the Earth, and our only natural satellite takes approximately 27 days to make a full orbit around the Earth.  That orbit changes  Because of that elliptical orbit, the moon has both a closest (perigee) and farthest (apogee) distance from the Earth.   During a “Super Moon”, the moon is at its closest approach of the year and appears to be bigger and brighter.   When the moon is the farthest, we call it a “Micro Moon”.  The smaller-looking moon was visible in our skies in January.  The distances change each month throughout the year.

Sky_Watch_650x366

These terms are fairly new in our lingo.  The moon has had this elliptical orbit for eons, but the words “Super” and “Micro” Moons have emerged in just the past few years.  Sunday’s Super Moon isn’t really even the closest the moon can get to Earth.  In March, 2011, the moon was 221,565 miles from us — that’s 126 miles from the smallest Earth-Moon distance.  It was during the days leading up to that perigee that the term “Super Moon” really exploded into our lingo.

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What To Look For Sunday

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Thursday Evening Update: Hail and unconfirmed report of a water spout

August 7th, 2014 at 4:38 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Update at 6:30PM

During our newscast, Tony and I noticed some possible rotation in a storm just offhsore from Little Compton, RI.  Here is snapshot from the RADAR….

RAD_TORN

That same thunderstorm moved to the southeast and we are now getting unconfirmed reports of a water spout just a few miles offshore from Martha’s Vineyard.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
603 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     WATER SPOUT      10 NW AQUINNAH          41.44N  70.95W
08/07/2014                   ANZ234             MA   AIRPLANE PILOT

            PILOT REPORTS WATERSPOUT 10 MILES NW OF MARTHAS
            VINEYARD IN RI SOUND

Stay tuned…we will continue to update you on this.

We have also been tracking isolated but strong thunderstorms this afternoon.  Not everyone is getting these storms, but some cities and town have been hit by hail.  This picture of hail is from Chepachet courtesy of TeriLyn Colaluca.

Chepachet Hail  - Terilyn

 

There were multiple reports of hail; I saw one from Middetown, RI with 1 inch hail!

There is a very cold pool of air sitting high overhead, and that will act as our trigger for the storms through early this evening.  The activity should start to wind down by around 7PM.  We will be on t he air from 5 to 6:30 on WPRI, and from 6:30 to 7 on FOX Providence with the latest information.  -Pete Mangione


Thursday’s Rip Current Threat

August 6th, 2014 at 5:05 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Waves from Bertha will slowly subside during the next 24hours, but there will still be a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches.  If you are going to the beach and plan on going in the water, please swim in sight of a lifeguard.

Weather_Alert_2_650x366

The moderate risk of rip currents exists at beaches exposed to the open ocean.  These beaches include, but not limited to:

  • Misquamicut (Westerly)
  • Westerly Town Beach
  • Blue Shutters (Charlestown)
  • Charlestown Town Beach
  • Matunuck Beach (South Kingstown)
  • Carpenter’s Beach (South Kingstown)
  • East Matunuck State Beach (South Kingstown)
  • Scarborough Beach and Scarborough South (Narragansett)
  • Narragansett Town Beach
  • Eastons Beach (Newport)
  • Second Beach (Middletown)
  • Town of Little Compton Beach
  • South Shore Beach (Little Compton)
  • Horseneck Beach (Westport, MA)
  • Ballards Beach on Block Island
  • Aquinnah Public Beach (Martha’s Vineyard)
  • Squibnocket Beach (Martha’s Vineyard
  • South Beach State Park (Martha’s Vineyard)
  • Miacomet (Nantucket)
  • Fisherman’s (Nantucket)
  • Nobadeer Beach (Nantucket)

Here’s the ocean wave forecast for Thursday around noon.

Ocean_Waves_Thu_650x366

 

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Severe T’stom Warning for Parts of SE MA

August 6th, 2014 at 4:33 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

4:45pm UPDATE: This warning has been cancelled by the National Weather ServiceWeather_Alert_650x366
Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect until 5pm for Central and Southeast Bristol County in MA.  A thunderstorm capable of producing large hail and damaging winds was moving southeastward.  Lightning and torrential rain are also threats.  Communities in the path of the storm include Acushnet, Fall River, New Bedford and Dartmouth.  If you are in the path of this storm, stay indoors and away from windows until the storm passes.

Storm_Radar_650x366

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-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

 


Strong Tstorm Over SE MA

August 6th, 2014 at 3:53 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Live Pinpoint Doppler Radar tracking a developing strong thunderstorm over SE MA, moving southeastward toward New Bedford.  It has lightning, torrential rain and possibly hail and strong gusty winds.

Storm_Radar_650x366

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We were watching the storm developing in 3-D during the last hour.  With doppler radar returns this strong at this height within the atmospheric conditions present today, lightning was expected…that’s what we are seeing now.

3-d radar_wed

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


4-6 Foot Waves Crashing on Areas Beaches

August 6th, 2014 at 3:03 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Watching our Narragansett Beach Cam, we are estimating the waves crashing on the beach to be betwteen 4 and 6 feet high.  This is great for surfers, but still potentially dangerous for swimmers.  These breaking waves can create dangerous rip currents.

Narr_Beach_Cam_650x366

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Buoys offshore of RI show wave heights of 6feet.  We’ve been noting the wave heights going up and down over the last several hours.  Also, we’ve noticed the frequency of the waves has been increasing….something known as wave period.  The period of the waves went from 10seconds to 8.8seconds through the day.

buoys_650x366

Wave heights should slowly ease through Thursday, but there will likely still be a risk of rip currents.  Swim with caution.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Thunderstorm Threat This Afternoon

August 6th, 2014 at 1:17 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A cold front has pushed offshore, but there will still be the potential for some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.

rpm_650x366

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Although the dew points (measurement of the amount of moisture in the air) are dropping, they remain high enough to help produce some showers and thunderstorms….in the 60s.

Dewpoints_650x366

In addition, there is a piece of energy moving over Southern New England this afternoon which will work with a weak frontal boundary at the surface to help spark these storms.  You can see the yellow and orange area in the graphic below..

vort_wed

These factors along with the sunshine will all work to help create some scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.  It won’t be raining all the time, and not everyone will see a storm, but the possibility will be there.  I think the best chance will be away from the immediate south coast; however, all of Southeast New England could see a thunderstorm through the afternoon until about 6-7pm.

SNE_FCST_650x366

They will likely be short-lived, but they could bring:

  • Brief, but heavy rain
  • Gusty winds
  • Hail

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


High Rip Current Risk Today

August 6th, 2014 at 11:30 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

12:45pm UPDATE:  Swimming at Horseneck Beach in Westport, MA is prohibited until further notice. This is a notoriously bad spot for rip currents when there are rough seas.

————————-

If you are going to one of the many area beaches today, please swim near and within sight of a life guard as there is a high risk of rip currents today.  If you are caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the beach to escape it.

Daily-Graphic-1_650x366

The high risk of rip currents exists at beaches exposed to the open ocean.  These beaches include, but not limited to:

  • Misquamicut (Westerly)
  • Westerly Town Beach
  • Blue Shutters (Charlestown)
  • Charlestown Town Beach
  • Matunuck Beach (South Kingstown)
  • Carpenter’s Beach (South Kingstown)
  • East Matunuck State Beach (South Kingstown)
  • Scarborough Beach and Scarborough South (Narragansett)
  • Narragansett Town Beach
  • Eastons Beach (Newport)
  • Second Beach (Middletown)
  • Town of Little Compton Beach
  • South Shore Beach (Little Compton)
  • Horseneck Beach (Westport, MA)
  • Ballards Beach on Block Island
  • Aquinnah Public Beach (Martha’s Vineyard)
  • Squibnocket Beach (Martha’s Vineyard
  • South Beach State Park (Martha’s Vineyard)
  • Miacomet (Nantucket)
  • Fisherman’s (Nantucket)
  • Nobadeer Beach (Nantucket)

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High Rip Current Risk for Wednesday

August 5th, 2014 at 5:27 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Tropical Storm Bertha will be passing approximately 300 miles to the southeast of New England late tonight.  While we won’t be seeing any rain or wind from Bertha, we will see some heavy wave action during the next several days.  The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued an alert for a High Rip Current Risk for ocean exposed shorelines in Southeast New England.  These alerts are issued by the National Weather Service when there is the risk for dangerous rip currents along some area beaches.  Rip currents can become life threatening.

From that alert:

rips

rips_map

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Rip currents are strong and very localized currents of water near the surface which move directly away from the shoreline and through breaking waves.  They can be caused by a number of factors including large waves from passing tropical systems like Bertha.  If you plan on swimming in the water, swim near and within sight of a lifeguard.

rip example

When caught in a rip current, swimmers can be quickly carried away from the beach.  If you are caught in one, don’t panic! Swimming against a rip current can exhaust even the best swimmers.  If you are caught in a rip current, it’s important to swim parallel to the shoreline.  If you are headed to the beach, memorize the graphic below.  It could save your life.

break the grip

You can track the wave heights on our Ocean page, and get more information about rip current safety on our rip current page.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

 

 

 

 

 


Bertha Latest

August 5th, 2014 at 1:35 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

This morning, the circulation of Tropical Storm Bertha was clearly exposed, which isn’t a good sign for tropical systems.   When thunderstorms cluster around the center of circulation, these storms can intensify.

vis_bertha_exposed

During the last several hours, however, there has been a burst of convection (shower/t’storm activity) to the north of the circulation.

Embedly Powered

via Noaa

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Bertha Expected To Weaken Tuesday. Still A Hurricane As Of 11pm

August 4th, 2014 at 10:54 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening from Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…..

As o f1pm , Bertha is barely hanging on to hurricane status, and is expected to weaken on Tuesday. Forecast has not changes with the center passing well south and east of New England Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning. Rain and wind will  not impact US mainland, howevedr increasing surf and rip currents likely later Tuesdaty Night into Wednesday

LOCATION…31.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 490 MI…790 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH…31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

AT 1100 PM..THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH…31 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…BERTHA WILL
PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON
TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS…OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES…205 KM…PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

Latest Satellite Image Shows Poor Structure To The Storm

bertha satellite

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Latest Storm Position As Of 11pm Monday

berth11pm now

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Latest Forecast Track Keeps Tropical Storm Force Winds Well Offshore Of New England

berta trck 11pm

 

 

 


Hurricane Bertha Disorganized, Winds At 75 mph

August 4th, 2014 at 7:05 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony Petrarca…

Bertha is a disorganzied hurricane at this time with winds of 75 mph. The forecast confidence is high that the storm will pass out to sea this week and not have a rain or wind impact  here. Howevever  surf and rip currents will increase along our beaches by mid week.

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LOCATION…29.4N 73.6W
ABOUT 560 MI…900 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…998 MB…29.47 INCHES

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AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST.  BERTHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH…30 KM/H…AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK…BERTHA WILL PASS ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120
KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS…OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM…MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

now Bertha1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bertha Right Now

 

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Bertha Forecast Track Takes Storm Well South and East Of New England


Bertha Strengthens

August 3rd, 2014 at 11:23 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Air Force aircraft investigating Tropical Storm Bertha have found stronger winds around the center of circulation….a jump from 45mph at 5pm to 65mph at 11pm! Strong thunderstorms to the east of the center have grown and become better organized.  Bertha is just to the north of the Bahamas.

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Monday’s Outlook

August 3rd, 2014 at 10:29 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After a mostly cloudy, damp, cool and showery weekend, we need a little sunshine.  I think we will see a much better day on Monday! Better beach weather. Better boating weather. Better anything weather.  There’s still the chance for showers on Monday, but at least we’ll have the sun.

Here’s how Monday will play out….

There’s an area of upper-level energy spinning over Pennsylvania. You can sorta make out a spin over the Keystone State on the satellite/radar loop.


Tropical Storm Bertha

August 3rd, 2014 at 6:59 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The convection (shower/thunderstorm activity) around Bertha has become a little better organized today.  While looking pretty ragged on Saturday, it looks a little healthier today.  The system has sustained winds are 45mph.

Arthur_IR_650x366

At 5pm on Sunday, Bertha was near the Turks and Caicos Islands in the southeast Bahamas Islands.  The storm will begin to turn northward and then eventually northeastward away from the United States this week.

Bertha_Fcst_650x366

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Interesting to note, the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast calls for Bertha to intensify into a Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 75mph on Wednesday as it passes well to our south and east.  We feel pretty confident that Bertha will stay out to sea.  We could, however, see some waves from Bertha, especially if the system strengthens to a strong tropical storm or  hurricane.  Below is a forecast of ocean waves for Wednesday….some of the large waves associated with Bertha could propagate our way mid to late week.  Surfers unite!

Ocean_Waves_650x366

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Sunday Showers, but not as Heavy

August 3rd, 2014 at 9:08 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Some more showers to get through today, but overall, not as much rain as what we had on Saturday.  This morning, everyone has a good chance of getting showers.  They will be off/on and light for the most part (although anytime you have tropical moisture involved, you can’t completely rule out a quick downpour).

The best chance of showers arrives later morning into the early afternoon, and then the chance drops into the late afternoon.  Note the graph below:

Blog_One

As shown above, the chance of showers drops in the afternoon, but locations to the south and east of I-95 may hang onto the showers a bit longer.  Note the map below:

Sunday_Aft_Bloggggggggggg

 

If you are headed out today, bring the rain jacket or umbrella.  While it won’t be raining the entire time, some showers will still be passing through.  There may be a few slivers of sun late today, especially for western Rhode Island.  Have a good day! -Pete Mangione

 

 


Tropical Storm Bertha Latest

August 2nd, 2014 at 11:50 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 11pm, Tropical Storm Bertha was moving through the Dominican Republic.  The poorly organized system was bringing some squally weather to the island.   Data from Hurricane Hunter aircraft and surface observations  continued to show no well-defined low-level circulation.  Despite some strong thunderstorms just to the north of the Domincan Republic, the system shows no real organization.  The National Hurricane Center mentioned that any advisories associated with Bertha could be dropped Sunday.

Embedly Powered

via Noaa

Bertha is expected to continue moving northwest toward the Bahamas during the next 2 days.  The same system moving through the Northeast on Sunday will help guide Bertha out to sea and away from the United States.

Bertha_Fcst_650x366

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Also of note in the tropics, we are monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas.   This is associated with a weak area of low pressure.   There is only a slight chance that this area could become a tropical depression in the next 24hours.   On Monday, conditions will become unfavorable for tropical cyclone development as upper-level winds will become too strong.

Arthur_IR_650x366

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

 


Sunday’s Outlook

August 2nd, 2014 at 10:59 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Sunday will not be perfect, but it does not look like a washout either.

We are monitoring an area of showers off the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines.  This area of rain is being produced by energy in the upper-levels of the atmosphere interacting with a stalled front.   As this disturbance moves northward, the showers will arrive in our area Sunday morning.  I don’t think the showers will be as widespread as Saturday.

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