Tony’s Pinpoint Weather Blog

Flash Floods, Arthur, and the rest of the 4th

July 4th, 2014 at 1:29 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The impacts of Arthur really started to get going this afternoon….a Flash Flood Warning is in effect for Providence, Warwick, Cranston, and for portions of Kent, Washington, and Providence County.  Here was the scene on RADAR earlier.

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Arthur is still a category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph.  You can see it has started to merge with the front moving over our area.

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Arthur will remain offshore and make his closest pass late tonight….he will give us some heavy rain before that happens.  Look for showers and downpours to continue until 9 or 10PM.   If he speeds up, we may be able to get them out of here a little sooner.  It may get windy tonight with gusts around 3o mph, so some isolated wind damage is possible.  But our main threat will be street flooding, please don’t drive through flooded roads.  More updates soon. -Pete Mangione

 

 


Arthur Weakens a Little, Flash Flood Watch Remains

July 4th, 2014 at 9:20 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Arthur has weakened a little (to a Category 1), his winds are down to 90 mph and he is moving northeast at 21 mph.  The storm is still expected to stay offshore during its closest pass tonight.

Blog_GoGoGog

 

While we will get high surf and rip currents here in Rhode Island and Bristol County Mass, the biggest impacts will come in the form of rain.  In fact, we have already seen some downpours and thunderstorms this morning.  Here is a snapshot from 9AM.

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A Flash Flood Watch starts at noon and goes through tonight.  1-3 inches possible with higher isolated amounts. Some localized street flooding is possible.  Please turn around if you see any flooded roads…..most people are in their cars when they get in trouble during flash floods. More updates later this morning. -Pete Mangione

 

 


Primary Arthur Impacts on Land will be Rain

July 4th, 2014 at 7:34 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New update from National Hurricane Center. Arthur still a Cat 2 hurricane with winds 100 mph.  It has picked up speed as expected and is now moving to the northeast at 23 mph.  While it will get gusty tonight, Arthur’s impacts will be primarily rain.  1 to 3 inches of rain is possible with some higher isolated amounts.  That is why a Flash Flood Watch goes into effect at noon and goes through tonight. More updates soon.  -Pete Mangione

Rain_Flash_Flood_Blog


Morning Update: Arthur Still Cat 2

July 4th, 2014 at 4:29 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of early this morning, Arthur is a Category 2 Hurricane with winds of 100 mph.   It is moving to the northeast at 22 mph.  After sweeping over the outer banks of North Carolina, Arthur will move back into the ocean.  As this happens, Arthur may increase in strength a little, but the overall trend will be to weaken by the time he makes his closest pass to southern New England.  That being said, he likely still be a Category 1 hurricane as he makes his closest pass tonight.

Impacts:

-Rain with some heavy downpours, especially from the afternoon into the evening.  The morning may end up with a decent amount of rain-free time.  Localized street flooding is possible in isolated areas by afternoon and evening.

-High surf and dangerous rip currents, especially out into Cape Cod.  The rip currents may last into Saturday and Sunday as well.

-Gusty winds tonight (25-35 mph).  Some isolated wind damage is possible, but keep in mind that these wind speeds are not that uncommon here in southern New England.

 


Midnight Update

July 4th, 2014 at 12:22 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of midnight, Arthur was over Cedar Island National Wildlife Refuge in North Carolina.  Winds of 100mph, moving northeast at 18mph.

Arthur_Radar_650x366

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


National Weather Service Statement on Arthur

July 4th, 2014 at 12:04 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

HURRICANE ARTHUR LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1159 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS…

.NEW INFORMATION…
UPDATED FORECAST INFORMATION DETAILS FOR THE OUTER RHODE ISLAND
COASTAL WATERS…AND THE MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND
EAST OF NANTUCKET.

.AREAS AFFECTED…
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

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Arthur 11pm Update

July 3rd, 2014 at 11:56 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 11pm Thursday, Arthur was near 34.6N 76.6W right over Cape Lookout, NC and 75 miles WSW of Cape Hatteras, NC.    It was moving northeast at 18mph…a significant increase in forward speed.   Winds remain at Category 2 strength…100mph.

Arthur_Radar_650x366

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Arthur Now a Category 2 Hurricane

July 3rd, 2014 at 9:22 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Hurricane hunter aircraft measured winds of 100mph around Arthur….it has now been upgraded to a Category 2 Storm.

On it’s current path, it should make landfall near Morehead City, NC.

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 -Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo


Tropical Storm Warning for Cape, Rain on way for 4th

July 3rd, 2014 at 7:13 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The evening update from the National Hurricane Center still shows Hurricane Arthur with winds of 90 mph, movement to the northeast at 13 mph.  The center is still expected to miss us offshore, but the forecast now has the path close enough for a Tropical Storm Warning to be issued for Cape Cod and the surrounding waters.

Blog_Thurs_Art_1

This means that it will be especially dangerous for boaters out toward the Cape and Islands.  It won’t be quite as bad across the Rhode Island shore, but some high surf and dangerous rip currents are likely late Friday into Saturday (possibly in Sunday as well).

As Arthur makes his closest pass late Friday night, winds will pick up.  Damaging winds should be confined to the outer Cape, with Rhode Island and most of Bristol County Mass getting winds that are not quite as strong.

Blog_Two_Arrthhh

 

Thunderstorms and showers are possible through Friday morning, but the heaviest of the rain looks to be Friday afternoon into early Friday evening.  This might leave a little hope for the 4th of July Parade in Bristol (at least the first part of it).  There will likely be some showers and downpours, but we will may get some breaks as well.

We will continue to update you through out the weekend. -Pete Mangione

 


Arthur Could be a Category 2 Hurricane as it Hits the Outer Banks

July 3rd, 2014 at 12:11 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New information in from the National Hurricane Center shows that Hurricane Arthur continues to intensify.  As of 11am, sustained winds had reached 90mph with gusts up to 115mph.  Outer rain bands were working their way on shore in North Carolina and the storm is now forecast to reach Category 2 status as it hits the Outer Banks of North Carolina tonight.  temp 3Meanwhile… the storm is still expected to track 50-100miles off-shore, with heavy rain and rip currents the main impacts in southeastern New England.  Timing remains on track with the heaviest of the rain Friday afternoon and evening.

In the short term, hot, humid air and hazy sun are helping to fuel thunderstorms popping up along and ahead of a slow moving cold front.  The storm prediction center is highlighting parts of western and central New England as areas that could see more severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.  temp 1

Heavy rain, frequent lightning and damagin winds are the main concerns with these storms today.  If you are planning on outdoor activities today and tonight, keep an eye to the sky for changing weather conditions as our area could see a few isolated strong storms, too.  Most of the day should stay dry, though.

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Arthur Continues to Strengthen

July 3rd, 2014 at 11:26 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

New data in from NOAA and Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate that Hurricane Arthur has strengthened further this morning with sustained winds near 80mph and gusts to nearly 100mph.   temp 2

Additional strengthening is expected through the day as the storm moves northeast towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Our computer models continue to indicate that Arthur stays well southeast of RI and Southeastern MA.  temp 3

As tropical moisture from Arthur interacts with a cold front sitting over southern New England we are looking at a rainy 4th of July–especially in the afternoon and evening.  Here’s the latest on what to expect for our area.  temp 1

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Arthur Now a Hurricane

July 3rd, 2014 at 5:13 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Arthur has strengthened into a hurricane early this morning–the 1st of the 2014 Hurricane season.  There have been no major changes to the track or intensity forecast for this storm.  Arthur is still expected to track around 50-100miles south and east of Nantucket.

Here’s the latest bulletin from the National hurricane Center:

BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 …ARTHUR NOW A HURRICANE… …EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…

INFORMATION ———————————————-

LOCATION…31.3N 79.1W ABOUT 340 MI…545 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…985 MB…29.09 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA…PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND…SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK —————————— AT 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH…15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TODAY…FOLLOWED BY A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CORE OF ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM…FROM THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES…150 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB…29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNING AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE… NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS…2 TO 4 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS…2 TO 4 FT SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA…1 TO 3 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA…1 TO 2 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS.

RAINFALL…

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES…ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

SURF…

SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION…

PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ————- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN


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Arthur Nears Hurricane Strength Overnight

July 3rd, 2014 at 3:34 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 2am, Tropical Storm Arthur was near hurricane strength with sustained winds of 70mph.  An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft was investigating the storm now and it could become a hurricane soon.   The storm is moving north at about 8mph and is still more than 300mi southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC.  Arthur is expected to start moving to the north-northeast today and increase it’s forward speed, approaching the coast of NC late Thursday night/Friday morning.  Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center of the storm.  As we’ve continued to mention, Arthur makes it’s closest pass to us late Friday night/Saturday morning, bringing a period of heavy rain and rough seas to our area.  Depending on the track and intensity of the storm, there could also be a brief period of Tropical Storm Force winds over Eastern MA and possibly part of the RI coast.

Look for more info to come through the morning… the next update from the National Hurricane Center will be at 5am.


Arthur and the 4th of July — 11pm Update

July 2nd, 2014 at 11:23 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

At 11pm, Tropical Storm Arthur was near 30.6N and 79.1W.  It was approximately 380miles southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC or about 160 miles SSE of Charleston, SC.   It still has winds of 70mph and is moving north at 8mph.

New in the 11pm update: Tropical storm force winds possible for parts of our area…details further below.

Arthur continues to be a well-formed tropical system.  Strong thunderstorms continue to circulate around the center and there is minimal shear (upper-level winds which can tear apart a tropical system).  

 

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During the next 24 hours, Arthur is expected to become hurricane.  It has plenty of warm water to use as fuel for intensification.  Hurricanes can strengthen when water temperatures are 80°F (26.6°F) or warmer. 

 SST

As Arthur moves north, it will intensify, then turn right or northeast as it approaches North Carolina.  It will come very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  

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Arthur Update – 8pm Information

July 2nd, 2014 at 8:04 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

At 8pm Wednesday, Tropical Storm Arthur was at 29.7N 79.1W or about 435 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC and about 220 miles south-southeast of Charleston, SC.  It has winds of 70mph, still just 4mph shy of being a hurricane.  It is moving to the north at 7mph, still fairly slowly.

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The convection or showers/t’storms continue to be strongest around the center of circulation.  This will continue to help intensify the storm.  Water temperatures are 80°…plenty warm enough to feed the system for further intensification.

Arthur will continue to move to the north then turn northeast Thursday evening, then pass to our south and east on Friday night and Saturday morning.   Multiple computer models are in agreement that Arthur will avoid a direct hit on Southern New England.  The image below shows the forecast paths of various computer models.

Arthur_Models_650x366

With a path offshore, we will avoid the wind, but get the rain.  Friday still looks like a washout.

The next National Hurricane Center update is around 11pm.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

On Twitter: @tjdelsanto

 


Arthur Latest – 5pm Wednesday

July 2nd, 2014 at 7:26 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of 5pm Wednesday, Tropical Storm Arthur was near 29.7N 79.1W or about 435miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC.  It was moving northward at 7mph.  Sustained winds are of 70mph, just 4mph shy of being a hurricane.

 

Arthur_Vis_650x366

Convection (showers/t’storms) around the center continues to look impressive.  You can see the clumpy white clouds right around the center of circulation on the visible satellite picture above.

In the infrared satellite picture below, where the temperature of the cloud tops is measured, you can see the purples and pinks of the coldest cloud tops around the northern periphery of the storm.

Arthur_IR_650x366

Arthur is expected to form into a hurricane, possibly by later this evening.  A northward movement will continue before a weather system moving across the Midwest begins to steer Arthur to the northeast.

Arthur_Forecast_650x366

 Live Pinpoint Doppler 12: 7-Day Futurecast | Closings and Delays | WPRI.com Flight Tracker

Hurricane Arthur will pass to our south and east late Friday and early Saturday.  Although we won’t get the winds associated with Arthur, we will see some rain.  Moisture associated with the system will stream along a cold front moving through New England on Friday.

Fcst_Map_650x366

The interaction between the front and moisture will produce occasional rain, possibly heavy at times, through the day on Friday…beginning in the morning and continuing through the evening.  Some thunderstorms are possible, too.  The 4th of July looks like it could be a washout.

Once the front passes through the area, drier air will return for Saturday and Sunday.  However, the hurricane will have stirred up the ocean so much that large waves will be crashing on our shores and dangerous rip currents are possible through the weekend.

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

 


Severe Thunderstorm Watch

July 2nd, 2014 at 4:04 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for areas north and west of Providence.  This includes communities such as Providence, North Providence, Pawtucket, Cranston, Johnston, Central Falls, Lincoln, Cumberland, Woonsocket, Smithfield, North Smithfield, Burrillville, Foster, Glocester and Scituate. 

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A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means that the atmospheric conditions are favorable for severe storms.  Severe Thunderstorms can bring torrential rain, frequent lightning, hail and damaging winds.  If a severe thunderstorm is threatening your area, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning will be issued.

 Live Pinpoint Doppler 12: 7-Day Futurecast | Closings and Delays | WPRI.com Flight Tracker

As of 4pm, a line of showers and strong/severe thunderstorms was moving through Western New England.  I turned the lightning tracker on and more than 38,000 lightning strikes were detected in that area!!!!  These storms could move into our area after 6pm.  You can be sure we will be tracking the line very closely.

Storm_Radar_650x366

-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo

on Twitter: @tjdelsanto


No Way Around It–Holiday Weekend Starts Wet

July 2nd, 2014 at 10:22 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

We are continuing to track 2 main players in our weather forecast for the next few days into the weekend–an approaching cold front from the west and Tropical Storm Arthur off the coast of Florida.  The result will be a high chance of rain for your 4th of July, followed by better weather Saturday and Sunday.  temp 2

First the latest on TS Arthur–Arthur strengthened overnight as it moved north at about 5mph.  As of 8am, sustained winds were 60mph with gusts to nearly 70mph.  Additional strengthening is forecast to occur over the next few days and Arthur could become a hurricane by Thursday.  The track from the National Hurricane Center brings Arthur very close to the Outer Banks of NC by Friday morning as a Cat. 1 hurricane and then takes it several hundred miles southeast of Nantucket by late Friday night/early Saturday morning.   On that off-shore track, southern New England would get building seas and dangerous rip currents mostly Friday and Saturday.  temp 1

As for the cold front–it is slowly marching into New England today.  With ultra high humidity and hazy sun, strong to severe thunderstorms will pop up along and ahead of the front in western and northern New England. These storms will be capable of bringing damaging winds and hail, but the biggest issue will likely be the torrential downpours that will be possible.   The front will likely be far enough away through this evening that RI and SE MA stay STORM-FREE…. even Thursday likely won’t be a “washout”.  There will be a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms–mainly by late afternoon and evening.  Some of those storms could be strong with heavy rain and gusty winds.  Our highest chance of seeing widespread showers and thunderstorms will come, unfortunately, on July 4th as the front finally crawls into RI and MA.  The rain could be heavy at times with some localized flooding possible.  The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting as much as 1-2″+ of rain by Friday night in our area… with 3″+ totals just off to our east.  If the storm ends up tracking closer those higher amounts will be possible.  temp 1Bottom line is that it is almost certain that you’ll see some rain on July 4th.  Stay tuned for updates!


Arthur still looks like a miss, but he will affect our weather

July 1st, 2014 at 7:38 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As of Tuesday evening, Tropical Storm Arthur had winds of 52 mph and was moving slowly to the northwest.  Over the next couple of days, Arthur should continue to get stronger and pick up some speed making a potential landfall on the North Carolina coast by Friday morning. At this point, Arthur will likely be a Category 1 hurricane.  The next stop would be offshore from southern New England; its closest pass would likely be Friday night or early Saturday morning.  At this point, it would likely be just barely a Category 1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm. Here is the Tuesday evening updated track:

Blog_Tues_Night_Track

The center line is the forecast track of the storm, the yellow represents the “cone of uncertainty”.  That means that the storm has a chance of making landfall anywhere in the yellow, but the chance for southern New England is still quite low. While we are not forecasting Arthur to hit us directly, the track could bend a little more to the west which would translate to a more serious situation for us.  That is why it’s important to stay tuned to future forecasts for changes.

If our current forecast holds, land impacts would be minimal.  However, high surf and dangerous rip currents will likely affect mariners and beach goers.

There is a front just ahead of Arthur that WILL likely impact things on land.  As the front approaches, it will pull in some “Arthur influenced” tropical moisture.  This will move through Thursday and Friday.  Dangerous lightning and damaging winds are possible, but I am most concerned about the heavy downpours.  Some localized flooding is possible for both days.  The best chance for getting the heavy downpours would be Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

Blog_TuesNight_Graph

 

That leaves some hope for fireworks on the night of the 4th of July! The timing on all of this could change so please keep checking back for updates. -Pete Mangione

 

 

 

 

 


TD #1 Could Become a Hurricane in the Next Few Days

July 1st, 2014 at 9:26 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Tropical Depression #1 has been nearly stationary off the coast of Florida this morning with sustained winds of 35mph.  As we monitor it for signs of better organization and intensification today, the forecast from the National Hurricane Center has changed a bit.  As of the 5am update, the NHC is now forecasting TD #1 to become Tropical Storm “Arthur” later today and then to be a category 1 hurricane as it moves southeast of New England Friday night.  temp 1What does that mean for our weather?  Well, the storm is still expected to remain off-shore, so on this track a “HIGH IMPACT” from a hurricane is unlikely.  However, it WILL play a role in our weather.

As we mentioned yesterday, a cold front will move into the northeast on Thursday and Friday and interact with tropical moisture steaming northward from “Arthur”.  That will lead to potential rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms, especially from Thursday night to Friday afternoon in RI and SE MA.  The eventual track and timing of  “Arthur” will determine whether we can dry out in time for fireworks displays on Friday evening or if the downpours will continue into Friday night.  Several overnight computer models kept rain going near the coast and Cape late into Friday night.   The rest of the weekend looks much better with dry skies Saturday and Sunday and much less humid conditions behind the cold front.  In addition to any showers and thunderstorms, we’re also likely to see “Arthur” churn up our seas, leading to high surf at the beaches from late week into the weekend.  It’s good news for surfers, but will likely lead to dangerous rip currents for swimmers.temp 2Make sure to stay tuned for more updates on the holiday weekend weather as changes in the track and timing of Arthur could lead to adjustments in the forecast.


Holiday Forecast And Tropical Update

June 30th, 2014 at 7:41 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Michelle and TJ have written great blogs so far about 4th of July thunderstorms and the potential of a tropical storm.  I will make this brief and give you some updated information:

Watching “Tropical Depression #1″

As of late Monday night, Tropical Depression #1 was spinning just offshore from Florida .  If this end up turning into a tropical storm, it would be Tropical Storm Arthur.

The computer models generally agree that it will meander near the Florida coast for the next couple of days, and then start to turn to the north.  The general track has it making landfill on the North Carolina coast, moving back over the water, and then making a close pass to southern New England Friday night into Saturday morning.

Blog_Two_Pete_Mon

 

If this forecast hold up, impacts on land would be minimal.  In fact, Friday night into Saturday would end up being nice with comfortable temperatures.  There would likely be some big waves and rough surf so boaters would have to use caution.  If it tracks more to the left, then impacts would be much greater here in southern New England.  Therefore, we still need to watch this carefully.

 

THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

As Michelle mentioned, a front will combine with lots of moisture to bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.  Heavy downpours and localized street flooding are possible, but it won’t be raining the entire time.  As of late Monday afternoon, the new European Model (a computer model that tends to do pretty well) run has the threat of showers moving out just before fireworks time on Friday night.

Blog_3_gogogogo

We don’t want to take each computer run too literally, but it’s a sign that at least the 4th of July is not a complete washout.  The timing of the shower/T-storm threat will likely shift a little bit in the coming days, so we need to look at more data before anything gets cancelled on the holiday. Stay tuned! -Pete Mangione

 


Thunderstorm Threat Late Week

June 30th, 2014 at 11:49 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

While the weather is tranquil on this Monday, it’s a busy day in the Pinpoint Weather Center as we track potential thunderstorms around the 4th of July as well as what’s brewing off of the Florida coast.  TJ has a great blog on what to watch with the tropics and potential development of Tropical Storm Arthur, but I want to hit on the thunderstorm threat for July 3 and Independence Day July 4– 2 very busy days for outdoor events, fireworks and parades.

A cold front that is in the nation’s midsection today is going to be moving into New England by Wednesday and then off-shore on Friday.  As the front marches east, heat and humidity will build next few days on a southwest wind.  Very soupy air will be in place by Wednesday… making our atmosphere primed for thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the front.  As of this morning, it looks like most of the storms will still be to our west on Wednesday–in central/western New England.  But by Thursday, scattered thunderstorms  are likely to move into RI/SE MA.

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Watching the Tropics This Week

June 29th, 2014 at 11:12 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

As we head through this holiday week, we will have a few things to watch 1) Humidity 2) Showers and T’storms and 3) the Tropics.  Yes, Hurricane Season is barely a month old and we are monitoring an area off the coast of Florida for possible tropical development.

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Showers and T’storms Thursday

June 25th, 2014 at 5:09 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Lots of moisture, a cold front and an energetic jetstream will work together to produce potentially flooding rains on Thursday.

A cold front moving across the Northeastern United States Wednesday afternoon will continue to move toward Southern New England.  This front is serving as a spark for scattered showers and thunderstorms.  We will stay dry this evening, but obviously areas to the west and north are getting pretty wet.

 

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That cold front will advance southeastward into Southern New England tonight, then will slow down as an area of low pressure develops along it.

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CVS Charity Classic Weather

June 22nd, 2014 at 11:05 pm by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

After a stellar weekend, we are going to get more beautiful weather for the beginning of the work, school and golfing week.

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High pressure will continue to control our weather through the day on Monday both in the low-levels and high-levels of the atmosphere.  This is a weather pattern favorable for dry and sunny weather, which is what we’ll get for Monday.

For Barrington, specifically, expect sunny skies with cool’ish temperatures in the morning.  Opening ceremonies will be dry with temperatures in the 60s at 9:15am.  First tee off is scheduled for 10:30am, and the temperatures will continue their climb through the 60s into the 70s.   Mid-afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with a wind coming right up the bay (tending south-southeast 5-10mph).

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Top 5 reasons May seemed cool (Even though it wasn’t)

June 5th, 2014 at 3:17 pm by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

When we look at March, April, and May at TF Green airport, the meteorological spring of 2014 was 1.6° below normal.  This probably comes as no surprise.  However, it is a little surprising (at least to me) that the month of May was slightly warmer (0.6°) than normal.  While I did not conduct a scientific pole, anecdotal evidence tells me that many of you would also be surprised by this.  My anecdotal evidence is based on emails, social media, and personal interactions with viewers.  These interactions have a common theme…..”When is the warm weather going to get here?!!!”

So why did May seem to be a cool month when, in reality, it was actually warmer than normal? There is no right or wrong answer to this, but I decided to offer up a few theories for this difference between perception and reality.

 TOP 5 REASONS WHY THE MONTH OF MAY “SEEMED” COOL

1) The Memorial Day Bust

I was the on-air meteorologist on Memorial Day for the morning and noon show. During the morning show, my forecast was “morning showers clearing to afternoon sunshine with highs in the 80s”.  I will be the first to admit that this forecast did not work out. The high temperature did hit 78°; so in terms of temperature it was actually an above normal day.  However, because rain and clouds lingered for much of the afternoon, the day ended up a being a disappointment and “cooler” than expected.

2) Cloudy, Foggy Mornings

Most of my weather shifts are on weekend mornings.  During this past May, it seemed that almost every Saturday and Sunday morning had thick fog in place!  It is quite common to get fog here in southern New England, but my memory of May 2014 is that it was especially foggy.  When a morning is gloomy and foggy, it can sometimes set a “cool” tone for the entire day, even if brighter skies move in during the afternoon.

 3) No Sizzling Beach Days

Usually in May, we get a decent stretch of days in the 80s and sometimes even a few 90s.  For 2014, we had zero days in the 90s and only 3 days in the 80s….not exactly hot beach weather.  Compare this to 2013 when May had 3 days in the 80s and 2 days in the 90s.  In 2012, May had zero days in the 90s but 6 days in the 80s.  Overall, despite being a little warmer than average, May of 2014 did not have many “hot” days….I think this helped lead to the perception that May was a cool month.

 4) Wednesday, May 28th Was a Ridiculously Chilly Day

The month of May was a mix of good and bad weather days, but the worst day came on Wednesday May 28th.  Do you remember that? In addition to the periods of rain, the high temperature only made it to 53° and gusty winds kept wind chills in the 40s for much of the day.  Not fun! Because that day came so late in the month, I think it is still stuck in our memories when we think back on May.

5) Chilly Ocean = Chilly Sea Breeze

I did a story during the middle of May about the first group of beaches opening for the season. At the time, Newport Harbor water temperatures were in the upper 40s.  By the end of the month, they made it into the 50s.   When winds come in off of the water (as they often do in the spring), it can have a dramatic cooling effect on the immediate coast.  Because official temperatures are kept at TF Green airport, they don’t always reflect the cooler temperature at our local beaches.

 

The list above contains my theories, so there is plenty of room for disagreement on this topic.  Here’s to some warmer beach days this summer! -Pete Mangione

 

 

 


Hurricane Season Begins

June 1st, 2014 at 12:29 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

In the Atlantic Basin, Hurricane Season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.  This is the time of year when conditions are the most favorable for tropical storm development, but it’s not impossible to see tropical storms or hurricanes outside of these 6months.

Tropical storms and hurricanes form over very warm water (usually at least 80°).    We are just beginning to see the water temperatures reach 80° in the tropics.  Here’s a look at the current sea surface temperatures.

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Usually, the most active time of any hurricane season is late August into October when the ocean temperatures are at their warmest.  In the graph below, notice the peak of hurricanes around September 10.  This is the busiest day, typically, for tropical activity in the Atlantic….when water temperatures are warm and the weather patterns are still favorable for tropical storm development. (more…)


Afternoon Better Than Morning

May 26th, 2014 at 11:35 am by under Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

The showers have been hanging around longer than anticipated this morning, but the afternoon will be milder.  I trimmed back my high temperatures a little bit.  Partly sunny skies will move in during the afternoon, there is a chance of a brief shower or 2 in the early afternoon but overall still a mild day.  Here is an updated planner below…it’s still possible that areas north and west of Providence still get close to 80. -Pete Mangione

 

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Memorial Day Outlook

May 26th, 2014 at 12:07 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Overall, Memorial Day looks really nice.  There is one concern and that’s for the morning.

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Showers moving through Upstate New York Sunday evening will continue to move southeast through the night.  Multiple computer models indicate that these showers will reach Southeast New Englandy by 7am.    Here is computer model, the HRRR, from the National Weather Service.

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Showers and T’storms Possible Sunday

May 25th, 2014 at 12:08 am by under General Talk, Tony's Pinpoint Weather Blog

Sunday will likely be a big day for Memorial Day parades, observances, ceremonies and barbecues.  For the most part, the weather will cooperate, but it won’t be a perfect day.  Showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast.

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A cold pool of air above our heads will create a sharp contrast in the atmosphere.  At about 18,000 feet above us, the temperature will be -20°C or -4°F.   Any sunshine will warm things up in the low-levels.  That warmer air will be able to rise into the cold air above our heads and any showers that do develop will grow tall into the atmosphere– thunderstorms can form more easily..

These storms will have the potential to produce:

  • Torrential rain
  • Frequent lightning
  • Strong, gusty winds
  • Small hail

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