Here is an updated video blog regarding the storm for Monday night into Tuesday. You can also read my thoughts below the posted video:
As TJ mentions in his previous post, confidence continues to grow regarding a blizzard Monday night into Tuesday. In fact, the National Weather Service has issued a blizzard watch for our area. Let’s break down what we know and what we need to fine tune:
What we know:
-A Major Storm will impact southern New England Monday night into Tuesday
-Snow, wind, and poor visibility will create dangerous if not impassible travel conditions
-It’s likely we will get at least one foot of snow, some locations could get closer to 2 feet.
-With the combination of heavy snow and strong wind, branches are at risk of coming down which will lead to likely power outages.
What we need to fine tune:
-The specific snow ranges we are expecting….I would like to see one more round of data before putting a cap on the maximum amounts. However, I am fairly confident in at least one foot across most of our area.
Stay tuned for update through out the rest of the weekend and next week. The entire weather team (Tony, Michelle, TJ) will be working online and on the air. -Pete Mangione
We’ve been tracking the potential for snow on Tuesday for almost a week now. This past Tuesday, the computer models indicated a major storm was possible for the following Tuesday. That signal for a whopper-of-a-storm was temporarily lost. This happens in computer modelling, and meteorologist know it. Now, a major Nor’easter is once again showing up…and on every single computer model we look at. The impacts from each model are all the same — blizzard-like conditions.
Below is the European computer model’s position of the low center on Tuesday evening and some of the implied impacts from this storm.
Instead of the Super Bowl or Seattle, DeflateGate has been the big topic of conversation this week. A lot of Patriot fans I know are worried about how the controversy will affect the team next week.
Taking some advice from one of Rhode Island’s most famous residents – Taylor Swift – WROR’s Loren & Wally are urging the Patriots and their fans to Shake it Off.
Not to be outdone – some Seahawks fan’s are also using a Taylor Swift song for some inspiration. Read the rest of this entry »
More accumulating snow is expected this evening. An additional coating to 2″ of the white stuff is possible, the most falling over inland Rhode Island and Massachusetts.
Using Live Pinpoint Doppler 12 Radar, I’m tracking steady snow to our west which has been expanding as it has been heading eastward.
High resolution computer models indicate that this snow should be exiting Rhode Island between 8 and 9PM. This is the RPM model, showing the back edge of the snow moving through RI and into southeast Massachusetts.
You could say I’ve covered the Patriots for this entire 14 year run. Only in their first Super Bowl, I wrote for my high school newspaper, the Rebellion (South Kingstown) Here’s a snapshot from my story.
We are a big operation traveling with all the cameras and tripods. Providence-Charlotte-Phoenix, let’s hope no delays or weather issues!
Updated at 1:30PM by Pete Mangione
If you don’t feel like reading, check out the video afternoon blog below. Otherwise, read below for more information on the rest of Saturday and a possible Tuesday storm.
Before we discuss the rest of the Saturday forecast, I will briefly touch on the forecast for next week. A significant snowstorm is possible Monday night into Tuesday. We need to look at more data before saying that its a done deal, but several of our computer models are starting to come together on it. The European model has quite a storm on Tuesday morning. Again, we can’t take this too literally just yet, but it’s worth noting.
Here are some snow totals from this morning:
Noon – 4PM: Sleet and rain with temperatures climbing above freezing in most spots. Freezing rain is possible (primarily northwest of 295) so use caution on the roads.
4PM – 9PM: We go back over to snow. This will happen first in northwest RI and last at the coast. An additional inch or 2 of accumulation is possible (with potentially higher amounts northwest of 295).
Overnight into Sunday Morning: Watch for some icy roads as temperatures will be near or just below freezing.
Total Accumulations by tonight:
Northwest of 295: 4″-6″
Providence I-95 corridor: 2″-4″
South Coast: 1-3″
Wind may gust 15-25 mph for our viewing area, but the strongest gusts should stay east into Plymouth County Mass and Cape Cod where gusts of 30-50 mph are possible.
We will have updates online through out the day! -Pete Mangione
Good Evening From Chief Meteorologist Tony R Petrarca..
Our forecast remains on track…its if a difficult call due to a wide variety of precipitation is expected, rather than all snow. Dry weather this evening with no travel issues. Wet snow starts after 3am. Snow will come down heavy from 5-7am before switching to sleet, freezing rain and then plain rain. Colder air will work back in late day changing the rain and sleet back to snow from 4-8pm. The following maps will highlight what is ahead next 24 hours. Please check back for updates as things can still change….
By Tim White and Ted Nesi
PAWTUCKET, R.I. (WPRI) – Pawtucket Mayor Don Grebien has seen the same reports as everyone else about the Pawtucket Red Sox getting sold, but he’s gotten no indication a sale would lead the team to bolt Rhode Island. “My instincts tell me they won’t leave,” he said Friday.
The newest round of computer model data is still coming into the forecast center. The storm still looks like it will bring a mixed bag into Southern New England, but it’s a very tricky forecast. Slight wobbles in the track and slight variations in the intensity could create big changes to this forecast.
- More detail: Friday Morning Update
The biggest question we have is: how cold will the low levels be? Temperatures at the ground and a few thousand feet above our heads could fluctuate just enough so that we see precipitation go back and forth between rain/snow/sleet through much of the day.
After looking at the latest data, I’ve changed the forecast a bit for northern Rhode Island. I’m thinking rain/freezing rain will be able to make it up to the Mass Pike a little earlier, cutting down on accumulations in Rhode Island.
Below are basic breakdowns of the precipitation type and amounts on timelines for both Woonsocket and Providence. The heaviest of the precip will fall between 9AM and 2PM. Also during this time, we could be seeing the rain mix with snow and sleet, even in Providence.
By Dan McGowan
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – A Rhode Island Senate commission tasked with studying the challenges of commercial development and redevelopment of historic buildings wants to propose legislative initiatives that will be voted on this year, but it remains unclear if the group will make recommendations on how to address the vacant Superman building in downtown Providence.
It’s a busy weekend for us at Eyewitness News… Saturday is our Meeting street Telethon (hope you can tune in for a special night ) and Sunday morning our crew heads to Arizona! Got my Gear ready… Packing up the big suitcase today…. Can’t wait…
It’s now day 5 and we are still waiting on the NFL for a deflategate ruling. It may not come until after the Super Bowl, which means we’ll have to talk about this for 9 more days.
You wonder if the NFL has contacted Brady at this point. They should, already.
Saturday’s storm will bring a messy mixture of precipitation: snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain. Most areas will see a changeover to rain, but a plowable snow is likely across parts of RI. Roads will likely be messy everywhere on Saturday. Please drive with extra caution.
At 6:30AM, our storm was organizing over the Southeast United States, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern Pacific as it strengthens.
That storm will strengthen and rapidly intensify as it moves from the Carolinas to the Canadian Maritimes on Saturday. It will undergo a process called “bombogenesis” where the central pressure of the storm drops 24mb in less than 24hours. While it will be a pretty potent storm, it will be moving too quickly to produce very large snow amounts.
Good evening from chief meteorologist Tony R Petrarca..
Coastal storm likely Saturday with a wide variety of weather including wet snow, sleet, rain and gusty winds along the coast. It does not look like an “all snow” situation due to the lack of widespread cold air. A burst of wet heavy snow starts early Saturday morning, followed by a change to sleet and rain….rain will flip back to snow by late day into Saturday evening. Storm is still 36 hours away, so a lot can change…I would recommend checking back often now thru Friday night for updates as more data comes in…amounts and location of precipitation may have to be adjusted…
An unbelievable media presence in Foxboro today. As deflategate has become a national story. It was standing room only in the press conference room
The questions ran the gamut: What did you know? How did you not know? Are you a cheater? and so on…
Not only did Brady answer every single questions posed to him, he kept his composure and remained congenial – even after being asked the same question in about 25 different ways. He even went about 10 minutes over passed the time when his handlers firs said “last question,” even shooing them away at times.
I’m a New York girl and by no means a Patriots fan – so I can’t be accused of being a homer – and I will say I was impressed with how patient he was answering the same question over and over. Whether he was telling the truth – who knows.
I’m very interested to see how this all plays out.
Now that we have heard from the coach…. It is going to be very interesting to hear what the QB has to say… Tons of media in Foxboro… We will have live coverage … He is expected to speak between 4:15 and 4:30.
You can watch the news conference live on WPRI 12 and streaming on WPRI.com.
UPDATED: Here’s what he said
By Dan McGowan
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – They could have called it “defect-gate.”
Eighteen years ago this week, then-Providence Mayor Vincent A. “Buddy” Cianci Jr. flew to New Orleans for Super Bowl XXXI with one mission: convince New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft to move his franchise to Rhode Island’s capital city.
A huge national media contingency at Gillette today awaiting Bill Belichick’s first deflategate comments
Our computer models are still showing an impressive storm off the coast of New England on Saturday and Saturday night. For the first time this winter, ingredients are coming together for a winter storm, complete with accumulating snow and strong north-northeasterly winds to impact New England. The storm looks to rapidly intensify as it passes southeast of Nantucket, with some of the model guidance showing the pressure dropping an impressive 40mb in just 24hours. That’s what meteorologists call “bombogenesis” (when a storm’s pressure falls at least 24mb in 24hrs).
As Pete Mangione blogged about yesterday, despite the intensity of the storm, we’re not sold on a “blockbuster” winter storm with “major” snowfall totals. The reason is that there is not a lot of cold air to work with. It’s likely that temperatures will be warm enough for at least some of the storm to fall as rain during the day Saturday. When we do get snow it will be heavy and wet. Right now the best chance of accumulating snow will come Saturday evening and night.
There are also still questions about the storm track. A storm that tracks closer to the coast would bring in warmer air and support more rain mixing in… while a farther away track will lead to more snow. It it tracks too far south, though, we could just get “grazed” by the storm.
Based on the latest data I’ve been looking at this morning, it’s likely that parts of our area will see enough snow to plow and shovel. Right now, the best shot at that will be north and west of Providence, with lesser amounts due to a longer period of rain near the coast.
It’s still too early to give out exact numbers with so many variables still up in the air, but I’m leaning towards less than 6″ of snow with this storm.
In addition, winds will strengthen through Saturday, especially near the coast. Winds could gust 45-55mph by Saturday night at the shore. While not a widespread issue, we may see isolated power outages where the gusty winds combine with the heavy, wet snow weighing down tree limbs and power lines.
Amusing counter attack takes to Twitter via #inflatethis. Looking like this is Brandon Browner’s brainchild.
While it’s still possible this it stays offshore and is a complete miss, new data coming in this afternoon supports the idea of a likely storm on Saturday. However, the type of storm will have a huge impact on how “big of a deal” this ends up becoming. It does appear that something will be falling from the sky; but this storm could end up being all snow, or a snow/sleet/rain mix.
We use many different computer models to forecast storms, and the European is one of the more reliable models when we are still several days away from the actual storm. Here is a snapshot of what the European model is forecasting for Saturday. The orange color represents liquid precipitation of .75″ to 1.o”. Assuming that the snow is not too wet, that could easily equate to 6 to 12 inches of snow.
But I am not completely sold on a big snowstorm just yet because temperatures may be borderline between snow, sleet, and even plain rain. Below is a forecast map right around the height of the storm; this is actually a snapshot of several thousand feet above the surface.
To get snow, you usually need all layers of the atmosphere to be below freezing. In the map above, the blue colors are below freeing (o° Celsius). Notice that this is a very close call. The freezing line seems to run right through Providence; this would give areas north and west of Providence all snow, areas south and east of Providence a messy mix, and Providence itself a toss up. Another complication is that if the precipitation comes down hard enough, it can essentially cool itself off to below freezing levels, even if the layer is initially above freezing.
Keep in mind, the above 2 graphics come only from one computer model, so we can’t lock in on just this solution. At this point, we know that this COULD become our first big snowstorm (6+ inches) of the season, but it could also end up a messy mix that give us no accumulation or just a few inches.
Timing: Based on current information, the storm would start on Saturday morning, but not become heavy until Saturday afternoon and evening…the worst would move out Saturday night. But unfortunately, timing is also subject to change. Please stay tuned as we get more information in the coming days.
As the Patriots continue the quest for a fourth championship berth, Eyewitness News is going along for the ride. We’ll be covering Super Bowl XLIX live from Arizona beginning Sunday, January 25. Luckily I’ll be going along to field produce for the on-air crews, as well provide digital coverage of the festivities.
Going live on location with three different crews – and 8 people total – isn’t a simple task. The planning began before the Patriots’ win over Indianapolis and picked up in earnest in the last few days. Hotel and plane reservations have been made; credentials have been submitted; satellite time has been booked; cars have been rented. That’s just a few of the tasks – the list is actually quite staggering. Read the rest of this entry »
By Tim White
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea has hired former Rhode Island U.S. Attorney Robert Corrente to handle a complaint filed by a Providence attorney who was fined for not registering as a lobbyist for 38 Studios.
By Ted Nesi and Tim White
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Top state officials have been put on notice about problems with another taxpayer-backed loan that was given out through the same program that backed Curt Schilling’s 38 Studios, the Target 12 Investigators have learned.
The R.I. Commerce Corporation sent a formal notification to the governor’s office Dec. 17 disclosing “an insufficiency of funds to pay the full principal amount” on a $4-million loan taken out in 2011 by The Corporate Marketplace Inc. The Commerce Corp. used its Job Creation Guaranty Program to effectively co-sign on the loan.
Although it won’t be a major storm, we could be seeing a bit of snow Wednesday night and Thursday morning. It could be enough to create some slick spots, too. Generally a coating of snow will fall, but a maximum of one inch could fall in some spots.
An Alberta Clipper will work across the Midwest on Wednesday. As it does so, an area of low pressure will develop off the North Carolina coastline. This low moves northeast Wednesday night and Thursday morning, passing southeast of New England.
It’s been a relatively quiet winter so far, with either wind-swept rain storms or minor bouts of snow (just 4.2″ total snow at TF Green since December 1 ). Is that finally going to change? That’s the big question…. and our computer models are at least giving us something to watch for the weekend.
First up… it’s “same old same old” with another low pressure center mostly missing our area mid-week… delivering a batch of clouds and snow showers/flurries late Wednesday night into Thursday. Little to no accumulation is expected with this.
The storm that is of more interest is a system that could develop in the Gulf of Mexico before moving off the mid-Atlantic coastline Saturday morning and passing southeast of Nantucket by Saturday evening/night. There’s still a lot of uncertainty with the track, intensity and timing of the storm… but the computer models have trended closer and stronger over the last 24 hours.
At this point, I wouldn’t get too excited as it could pass well out to sea, but it does need to be monitored in the coming days. Depending on the track, we could also see a mix with or change to sleet and rain in RI and southeastern MA.
And if you’re a fan of the European model… the 00z run overnight had another, even stronger storm impacting our area on Tuesday of next week. So far, it doesn’t have much support from the other models.