For a few different computer model runs, we were seeing some big disagreements regarding the weather for Wednesday, one of the busiest travel days of the year. One model, the GFS was keeping the storminess well offshore, while the European model was more of a coastal storm or inland storm.
This evening, the computer models seem to be agreeing a little bit better. They still don’t agree completely, but they are now in the same ballpark.
The European model run from early Sunday showed a low moving up the coast line and passing to our west. For Southern New England, this is a warm solution and means rain, mild temperatures and strong southerly winds.
The Saturday evening (00z) GFS computer model run abandons the offshore track and brings the low further west than its previous runs. It’s not quite as far west as the European model, but it is still a warm solution with a low passing over Nantucket. This would give us rain and a strong northeast wind.
While these low tracks are very different, at least the GFS is more in line with a storm along the coast as opposed to out-to-sea. Neither model indicates cold air will be sticking around, so I’m expecting mainly rain with this mid-week system. However the cold air does rush into the area as the system departs.
Travel impacts: Rail and air travel will be impacted very little, while car travel will likely be slowed by the rain/wind.
So, in a nutshell, here’s what to expect:
- Light rain develops Tuesday night
- Rain, heavy at times, Wednesday
- Windy on Wednesday
- Rain ending Wednesday evening
- Dry and colder for Thanksgiving
-Meteorologist T.J. Del Santo
1. I know you’re expecting me to lead with the poll, but first let’s revisit the Target 12 investigation Tim White and I put out Monday examining how cities and towns invest their independent local pension plans. (Investment returns play a crucial role in determining a plan’s financial health.) While you can play with our interactive chart to see how your city fares, my biggest takeaways from the story were that (a) there’s little rhyme or reason to the different ways each municipality handles millions in investments and (b) many municipal officials aren’t keeping close tabs on them in the first place. It wasn’t easy to track down this information: individual requests had to be made with each of the 24 cities and towns, and in many cases it took weeks or months of back-and-forth to get answers. More than one community sent us seemingly random pension-related PDFs that didn’t actually answer our quite specific questions. And sometimes obtaining the correct data just raised new questions. For instance, Warwick has its municipal side manage four of its five local pension plans, but the school department manages the fifth – and the school one gets markedly lower returns on its investments. Do Warwick taxpayers, who are on the hook for all five, actually think it’s best to manage the school plan separately? Still, at least Warwick could provide all the data we sought – some places could not even say how their investments performed over the last 10 years, let alone a longer time horizon. Some enterprising state rep or senator should pass a law mandating regular, thorough financial reporting by municipalities about their investment track records, so that taxpayers and other officials can see whether they’re getting bang for their buck.
2. And while they’re at it, lawmakers should force all those special districts to file annual audits, too.
Updated Sunday ….
You will need to bundle up if you are heading to the Pats game Sunday night! As for the game, cold weather could be good news for the Pats as Brady tends to perform better than Manning in frigid conditions. Most likely, we will see Brady in some kind of hat like this…
Credit: AP Photo/Barry Gutierrez
You often hear us say, stay tuned as things could change. This forecast is NOT likely to change very much (perhaps by a few degrees or miles per hour, but that’s about it). The computer models have been very consistent about bringing in this cold block of air on Sunday.
Below is a weather breakdown for Gillette Stadium on Sunday.
Wind: 20-30 mph
Wind Gusts: 45 mph
Wind Chill: 15°
Wind: 15-25 mph
Wind Gusts: 40 mph
Wind Chill: 12°
Wind: 15-20 mph
Wind Gusts: 35 mph
Wind Chill: 8°
Start 3rd Quarter (Around 10:15 PM)
Wind: 10-20 mph
Wind Gusts: 30 mph
Wind Chill: 5°
End of Game (Around 11:30PM)
Wind: 10-15 mph
Wind Gusts: 25 mph
Wind Chill: 3°
As you can see, you will not need to change what you are wearing very much through out the day or evening. Winter jackets, hats, gloves, and even some extra layers underneath are recommended. If you plan to tailgate, any loose items like paper plates will blow away unless you anchor them down with something. Even some heavier objects have a chance moving in the gusty winds….so make sure to secure everything. It will be windy for the entire day and night on Sunday…but the windiest part (gusts 40-45 mph) will come during pre-game tailgating in the afternoon!
How will the weather affect the game?
The game will start with very strong gusts, which could knock down the passing stats of Brady and Manning. Manning might see more of a drop off than Brady as Brady seems to have an easier time throwing in the wind. The second half will still be windy, but not QUITE as windy as the first half. Therefore, the QB’s might have more success throwing the ball in the second half.
I think the wind could influence parts of the kicking game. Don’t be surprised if on some of the longer field goals (over 45 or 50 yards) into the wind, the coaches choose to punt or go for the first down instead of kicking the field goal.
Credit: AP Photo/Matt Slocum
Manning is known for his poor play in cold weather, but some of that is because of his competition. During the Pat’s Superbowl winning streak back in the early and mid 2000s…they clobbered Manning quite a few times in cold weather. Was that because it was cold, or was that because the Pats had a great defense? We might have a better answer to that question after the game on Sunday night. Enjoy the game! -Pete Mangione
Updated on Saturday morning…..
Tony, Michelle, TJ and I will be updating this through Thanksgiving, so please keep checking back. At this point, it looks like most of this potential storm would be gone by early Thursday morning, so we will focus on Wednesday for now. Here is an early look at the forecast for Wednesday, the busiest travel day of the year!
Here is a brief summary of the potential impacts to travel on Wednesday:
Chance of significant Airport Delays: 50%
Chance of significant Road Impacts in Our Viewing Area: 20%
Chance of significant Road Impacts in northern and western New England: 30%
Here is a brief summary of expected precipitation type:
Chance of Rain in our Viewing Area: 60%
Chance of Snow in our Viewing Area: 15%
Chance of Rain in northern and western New England: 50%
Chance of Snow in northern and western New England: 40%
Airport Delay Details
If we are talking about ONLY TF Green Airport, I would say there is about a 10% chance that conditions will be unflyable. It that 10% chance was realized, it would probably be due to gusty winds, low clouds, fog, or heavy rain. The chance of flight delays due to snow appears very unlikely at this point. Even if heavy rain or fog did create a delay, the delays likely wouldn’t last very long.
So why do I have a “50% chance of airport delays” above? Because the weather can be sunny and 70 at TF Green, but if there are weather issues in other parts of the country, your plane can still be affected. On Wednesday morning, there is a good chance of rain and even a few thunderstorms up and down the east coast. Whether you are flying or hosting a loved one for the holidays, delays are possible from Florida all the way up into New England. This includes all those major cities in between like Charlotte, Philadelphia, New York City, Washington DC, and Boston. On a busy travel day like Wednesday, I would not be surprised to see a scenario like this…….one plane is delayed, this causes a backup, and then other planes start getting delayed.
What about cities to our west like Chicago? Here is the good news! Other then the east coast, the weather across much of the country looks very quiet on Wednesday. This includes Chicago O’Hare. This airport handles many connections, so having good weather here is important! Some rain is possible in California and some lake effect snow is possible around Buffalo. Other then that, we are looking good!
Road Impacts in Our Viewing Area: Details
If we do get weather-related delays on Wednesday, it will likely be due to a combination of rain and wind. While there is chance of a few wet flakes, it is not likely to impact car travel.
This many days in advance, it is impossible to determine exactly if and where flooding might occur. Based on current information, widespread street flooding appears unlikely. There is about a 10% chance that a few spots might experience street flooding that would slow down your travel. We will be able to get more details on the flooding potential in the coming days.
It’s possible that Wednesday will have several hours of very gusty winds. If this happens, you (or your visitors) will want to be mindful of downed tree limbs and also keep two hands on the steering wheel. Overall, the winds should not create any major traffic delays on their own.
Road Impacts in northern and western New England: Details
You can apply everything I just wrote about “Road Impacts in Our Viewing Area” . In addition, there is also a potential of some snow! Keep in mind, this storm could be a complete miss and we end up with completely dry roads. However, if the storm sets up in just the right place, snow could be an issue to our north and west (especially north of the Mass Pike). This could create problems with visibility and even slick roads. Even if we don’t get snow, sleet or freezing rain could create some delays on the roads as well. However, the chances are still low that snow or freezing precipitation create major delays on the roads…but it is something we will me monitoring.
By Dan McGowan
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – The future of the taxpayer-supported nonprofit created to oversee three low-performing Providence public schools is uncertain as district and union officials scramble to restructure an organization that has been mired in turmoil for the better part of a year.
United Providence (UP) was billed as a landmark school reform partnership between the school district and the city’s teachers union, but the nearly two-year-old agency has been without its top two staffers for several months while facing a “growing chorus of complaints from teachers,” according to a consultant’s report obtained by WPRI.com.
By Ted Nesi
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Rhode Island’s workers continued to lose ground in September and October despite a growing number of jobs in the state, as the unemployment rate rose to 9.2% and stayed there, according to new data released Thursday.
By Dan McGowan
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – He raised taxes and attempted to demolish a South Side community pool, but Providence Mayor Angel Taveras still remains popular in Rhode Island’s capital city, according to a survey released Thursday by Brown University.
• Related: Exclusive WPRI 12/Projo Poll: Taveras has best job approval (Nov. 19)
The next two mornings could potentially be the last opportunites for you to see Comet ISON, but likely not. When ISON was first discovered last fall, there were predictions that the comet could be the “Comet of the Century” or “brighter than the full moon” or you could see it in the “middle of the day”. How bright ISON gets will be determined in the next 2 weeks. Most astronomers think ISON will brighten to the same magnitude as the planet Venus.
By Ted Nesi and Andrew Adamson
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Rhode Islanders are focused on the economy, opposed to tolls on the Sakonnet River Bridge and divided over Obamacare and the state’s gun laws, an exclusive WPRI 12/Providence Journal poll released Wednesday shows.
• Interactive: A breakdown of the exclusive WPRI 12/Providence Journal poll results (WPRI.com)
Looking at some of our extended range (5-10 days) computer data, still indicating two significant shots of cold Arctic air. The first blast arrives this weekend along with bitter wind chills Saturday night into Sunday. Next shot of very cold air reloads for Thanksgiving weekend. The Thanksgiving period is a “potentially” interesting one as some moisture may try to move in producing some cold rain and or inland snow…..way to early to call. Meanwhile the map below shows the temperature anomalies that will set up next week and a half….Chief meteorologist Tony Petrarca
By Ted Nesi
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – A majority of Rhode Island voters continue to think the state is on the wrong track despite a small uptick the number of people feeling more optimistic, an exclusive WPRI 12/Providence Journal poll released Tuesday shows.
The poll also reveals 50% of Rhode Island voters say the state shouldn’t repay roughly $90 million to investors who bought bonds sold in 2010 to benefit Curt Schilling’s bankrupt 38 Studios, while 38% say the state should repay the money and 13% aren’t sure.
By Ted Nesi and Tim White
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Providence Mayor Angel Taveras has the highest approval rating among next year’s likely candidates for Rhode Island governor, but many of his rivals are also in solid shape, an exclusive WPRI 12/Providence Journal poll released Tuesday shows.
The new survey of 506 Rhode Island registered voters finds 57% say Taveras, a first-term Democrat, is doing an excellent or good job as mayor. His likely rival for governor, Democratic Treasurer Gina Raimondo, has a 51% approval rating. Republican Cranston Mayor Allan Fung has a 47% approval rating. Moderate Party founder Ken Block and Democrat Clay Pell remain largely unknown to the electorate.
By Dan McGowan
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – The expected candidates for Rhode Island governor in 2014 all found reasons to be pleased with an exclusive WPRI 12/Providence Journal poll released Tuesday, but cautioned that the results only represent a snapshot in time for a race that is still more than 11 months away.
An evening rocket launch out of Virginia will be visible here in southern New England, and it looks like great weather for the viewing! Under clear skies, RI’ers should keep an eye out for the launch of a record number of satellite’s through NASA and the US Military’s Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) Office– 29 satellites to be exact– which could create a stunning site for millions of sky watchers along the US East Coast. The rocket launch, dubbed ORS-3, will take place between 7:30pm-9:30pm.
For optimum viewing in our area, try to get a clear, unobstructed view of the horizon facing southeast–in the direction of Wallops Island, Virginia. The trajectory should be about 15° above the horizon.
Click here for more information.
Live coverage of the launch is also available via UStream beginning at 6:30 p.m. EST on launch day at: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nasa-tv-wallops.
By Dan McGowan and Tim White
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – The Providence Retirement Board is again attempting to strip retired firefighter John Sauro of his tax-free accidental-disability pension, more than two years after he was caught on camera partaking in a vigorous weightlifting routine.
With only a few weeks left in the Atlantic hurricane season, a new storm has formed in the central Atlantic. Melissa is being categorized as a sub-tropical storm meaning its entire structure is not entirely “tropical” The storm has winds of 60 mph. located over 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Melissa may get close to hurricane force winds next 36 hours before weaking after that. A threat to land is not expected as the storm tracks into the colder waters of the north Atlantic next several days. Whats left of the storm may come close to southern tip of Greenland, but a United States impact is “highly” unlikely…. Tony Petrarca
By Ted Nesi
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Rhode Island cities and towns are all over the map when it comes to their independent pension plans’ investment performance and how much they pay to invest the money, with some places failing to track basic data about their assets, a Target 12 investigation has found.
• Interactive: See all 24 municipalities’ pension investment returns and fees (WPRI.com)
By Chris Raia
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Herbert Claiborne “Clay” Pell IV on Monday filed a notice with the R.I. Board of Elections forming an exploratory committee to determine whether he will seek the 2014 Democratic nomination for governor of Rhode Island. He is the grandson of the late U.S. Sen. Claiborne Pell.
By Dan McGowan
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – He went from Head Start to Harvard to the Providence Housing Court, but along the way, Jorge Elorza barely graduated from high school, worked on Wall Street and returned to help the city when his boyhood friend was killed.
Fortunately, it’s not too often we see tornado outbreaks like Sunday afternoon’s devastating outbreak in the Midwest. It’s even more rare to see one in November, but not unheard of. We had a weather setup which was very favorable to the evolution of severe weather. In fact, this outbreak was well forecasted days ago, and that may have saved countless lives. Unfortunately, some lives were still lost.
1. There was some late-breaking news as The Saturday Morning Post headed to press Friday night. First Angel Taveras aide Peter Baptista resigned from the mayor’s nascent gubernatorial campaign, saying in a statement: “This afternoon I informed Mayor Angel Taveras that I could no longer serve in the capacity of finance director for his gubernatorial campaign.” Paired with the departures of Arianne Lynch and Matt Jerzyk, this means that in the three weeks since Taveras kicked off his bid for governor he’s lost three of the most loyal staffers associated with him. That could increase the influence George Caruolo, Mark Ryan, Joe DeLorenzo and Mike D’Amico have with the mayor, who is already facing scrutiny from progressives. All the Team Taveras turmoil comes as Gina Raimondo taps Eric Hyers, the energetic campaign manager who piloted David Cicilline’s two U.S. House campaigns. … Meanwhile, two minutes after Baptista’s statement another landed in my inbox, this one from HealthSource RI Executive Director Christine Ferguson and Health Insurance Commissioner Kathleen Hittner, saying thanks but no thanks to President Obama’s hastily announced policy shift on canceled insurance plans. “All plans available in 2014, whether through HealthSource RI or in the private market, have been through a rigorous review process designed to ensure that they meet the standards set forth in the Affordable Care Act,” they said. “After reviewing the president’s announcement, we have decided to continue in the direction we are going, and therefore will not be adopting the option made available to us by the president.”
2. Few enterprises play a more outsized role in the Rhode Island economy than Brown University. For evidence of that tune into this week’s Executive Suite, an exclusive interview with Brown President Christina Paxson. Paxson and I discussed a host of topics – Ray Kelly, the new strategic plan, the medical school, Lifespan’s troubles, the Jewelry District, the Dynamo House – but they all relate back to how Brown’s future will impact Rhode Island’s. One of the more intriguing comments: Paxson didn’t rule out the possibility that Brown will join other top medical schools in creating a faculty group practice, employing doctors who generate revenue for the school by providing direct patient care. Paxson told me: “This is something we can talk about with Lifespan and our partners over time, but that’s still very much in progress.” (Don’t forget that Brown and Lifespan are currently renegotiating their affiliation.) Paxson also said that while Brown will invest in real estate in the coming years, she expects its biggest economic contribution will be spillover effects from research – particularly brain science. But even in that area, the work will have to be specifically targeted due to the more limited financial resources of Brown and its partners compared with, say, Columbia.
In the early morning skies of November 16-18, the Leonid meteors will make their annual appearance. These meteors are famous for reaching ‘storm’ level when thousands of meteors can be seen per hour; however, these kind of shows don’t happen every year. In fact, it’s about every 33 years or so when the number of meteors shows a significant rise.
By Ted Nesi
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Rhode Island said Wednesday it will not be sending Obamacare-related cancellation notices to any its subscribers who buy individual health plans, but acknowledged those people may not be offered the same plans next year that they have now.
• Related: 73% of early HealthSource RI enrollees signed up for Medicaid (Nov. 12)
By Dan McGowan
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Yet another Rhode Island mayor is seeking a promotion.
Democratic Cumberland Mayor Daniel McKee on Wednesday formally launched his campaign for lieutenant governor, becoming the third municipal leader to announce he will run for statewide office next year.
By Dan McGowan
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – A concerned and confused group of protesters spoke out Tuesday against a proposal to close Alvarez High School and reopen it as a middle school to make up for an unforeseen spike in enrollment in Providence public schools.
Dozens of elected officials, parents and high school students asked the Providence School Board to consider other options for addressing a projected 578-student increase in the city’s middle schools over the next three years during a hearing at the Providence Career and Technical Academy on Fricker Street.
By Ted Nesi
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Rhode Island officials said Tuesday nearly three out of four residents who enrolled in health insurance through the state’s new Obamacare marketplace during its first month of operation signed up for the government Medicaid program rather than a private plan.
• Related: Watch HealthSource RI chief Christine Ferguson on Newsmakers (Oct. 6)
Lawyers on Tuesday once again briefed the judge overseeing a union lawsuit challenging Rhode Island’s 2011 pension overhaul about the progress of their court-ordered mediation to settle the case.
Attorneys on both sides of the suit met late Tuesday morning with R.I. Superior Court Judge Sarah Taft-Carter, court spokesman Craig Berke said. Last December she ordered the state and the unions into a formal, closed-door mediation process overseen by the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service.
Tuesday’s status conference took place just two weeks after the last one, a much shorter time frame between meetings than in the past, which has added to speculation that the two sides are nearing an agreement. That buzz will likely grow now: Berke said the next status conference will be Nov. 21, a week from Thursday.
A union leader revealed in August that a subcommittee has been formed to communicate with workers and retirees about the terms of a settlement, which Gov. Lincoln Chafee has repeatedly said he hopes will work out. But some state lawmakers have expressed concerns about what that would mean.
Tuesday’s status conference was the tenth one the two sides have held since last winter. The previous ones were on Oct. 28, Sept. 30, Sept. 5, Aug. 6, May 17, April 22, March 25, Feb. 28 and Feb. 1.
• Related: RI lawmakers worried about secret talks to rewrite pension law (Oct. 15)
The Economist has published an interesting chart that compares the official U.S. unemployment rate (which counts those Americans who don’t have a job but are actively looking for one) with the “non-employment rate” (the share of all 16-and-older Americans who don’t have a job, some of whom don’t want one).
The two statistics differ because “non-employment” includes senior citizens, students, stay-at-home parents and others who are choosing not to work. They wouldn’t be working even in a robust job market.
The Economist’s chart demonstrates pretty vividly that, contrary to what you might expect, the recent decline in the U.S. unemployment rate is not a sign that a larger share of the American population is actually working. So what does the same chart look like for Rhode Island?
It’s not as stark, but still worrying. After rising roughly in lockstep through mid-2009, the two statistics decoupled. Whereas Rhode Island unemployment peaked in January 2010 at 11.9%, “non-employment” didn’t peak until September 2011 – more than a year and a half later – at 41.1%. Take a look: