Tropical Depression #1 has been nearly stationary off the coast of Florida this morning with sustained winds of 35mph. As we monitor it for signs of better organization and intensification today, the forecast from the National Hurricane Center has changed a bit. As of the 5am update, the NHC is now forecasting TD #1 to become Tropical Storm “Arthur” later today and then to be a category 1 hurricane as it moves southeast of New England Friday night. What does that mean for our weather? Well, the storm is still expected to remain off-shore, so on this track a “HIGH IMPACT” from a hurricane is unlikely. However, it WILL play a role in our weather.
As we mentioned yesterday, a cold front will move into the northeast on Thursday and Friday and interact with tropical moisture steaming northward from “Arthur”. That will lead to potential rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms, especially from Thursday night to Friday afternoon in RI and SE MA. The eventual track and timing of “Arthur” will determine whether we can dry out in time for fireworks displays on Friday evening or if the downpours will continue into Friday night. Several overnight computer models kept rain going near the coast and Cape late into Friday night. The rest of the weekend looks much better with dry skies Saturday and Sunday and much less humid conditions behind the cold front. In addition to any showers and thunderstorms, we’re also likely to see “Arthur” churn up our seas, leading to high surf at the beaches from late week into the weekend. It’s good news for surfers, but will likely lead to dangerous rip currents for swimmers.Make sure to stay tuned for more updates on the holiday weekend weather as changes in the track and timing of Arthur could lead to adjustments in the forecast.