By Ted Nesi and Tim White

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Incumbent Democrats U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Congressman Jim Langevin still hold sizable leads over their Republican challengers just a week before Election Day, according to an exclusive WPRI 12 poll released Tuesday night.

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• Interactive: Check out the complete WPRI 12 poll results breakdown

Coming on Tuesday: Obama vs. Romney; Chafee for re-election; schools, business climate

He’s back. Sort of.

Ken McKay, the former Republican National Committee official who briefly chaired the state GOP last year, is also the creator of People’s Majority, a super PAC created after the Citizens United decision that re-emerged this month – apparently to go after U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse.

People’s Majority attacked Whitehouse on Sunday with a new 30-second attack ad that aired on WPRI 12 during halftime of the Patriots-Rams game, one of the highest-rated broadcasts of the week. The commercial repeated disputed allegations of insider trading against Whitehouse, who had a big lead over Republican challenger Barry Hinckley as of last month.

Cabell Hobbs replaced McKay as the treasurer of People’s Majority at some point last year, Federal Election Commission filings show.

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• Related: Analysis: Hinckley proves a worthy adversary for Whitehouse (Oct. 23)

Barry Hinckley’s star will be on the rise after Tuesday night’s WPRI 12 debate.

He didn’t land a crushing blow on Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, but the software entrepreneur turned in a more polished performance than his fellow Republicans, Brendan Doherty and Michael Riley, the other two first-time congressional candidates vying to unseat a Rhode Island Democrat this fall.

Not that Whitehouse had a bad night – the freshman senator was competent and comfortable, especially since he hasn’t taken the stage for a TV debate against a Republican opponent in six years. Like his colleague David Cicilline, Whitehouse has an easy time defending the Democratic Party’s major policies, and he mostly avoided “Senate-ese disease” by keeping his answers focused on average Rhode Islanders’ concerns rather than legislative minutiae.

WPRI 12 political analyst Joe Fleming said the debate had no clear winner, and Hinckley surpassed expectations for a political newcomer with an aggressive confidence that improved as the debate wore on. The problem for Hinckley: fighting to a draw doesn’t change the underlying dynamic of the election, which Whitehouse was winning by 26 points in the last WPRI 12 poll.

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Republican Barry Hinckley’s U.S. Senate campaign says it will begin running campaign commercials on television again Tuesday, after ceding the airwaves to incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse for the past two weeks.

Hinckley campaign manager Patrick Sweeney told WPRI.com the Republican challenger will go back on the air Tuesday and stay up throughout the last two weeks of the election. The campaign previously aired commercials from Aug. 29 to Oct. 9.

“I don’t want to go into strategy, but we are confident over the last two weeks that we will be able to close this 9-point gap,” Sweeney said, citing a recent Republican survey that showed a much closer race than independent polls from WPRI 12 and Brown University.

Whitehouse campaign manager Tony Simon expressed optimism. “We’ve been encouraged by the widespread support the campaign has received throughout this race,” he told WPRI.com. “As we enter the final stretch, our campaign continues to grow, and we continue to receive positive feedback on the senator’s message of standing up for Rhode Island families.”

The Republican remains at a huge financial disadvantage in the Senate race. Whitehouse’s campaign had $2.4 million on hand as of Sept. 30, while Hinckley’s had $452,783, their latest Federal Election Commission filings show. Hinckley has raised more than $1.5 million since last year to Whitehouse’s $3.1 million.

Whitehouse and Hinckley will meet for their first live televised debate tonight at 7 p.m. on WPRI 12.

Is Rhode Island’s quiet U.S. Senate race getting tighter? One Republican pollster thinks so.

A survey conducted Oct. 11 by GOP polling firm McLaughlin & Associates [pdf] shows Democratic incumbent Sheldon Whitehouse at 49% and Republican Barry Hinckley at 41%, with 10% of voters undecided. The telephone interview poll of 300 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 points.

The 8-point gap between Whitehouse and Hinckley in the McLaughlin poll is much closer than in recent polls from WPRI 12, which had Hinckley down 26 points, and Brown University, which showed the Republican trailing by 29 points. Hinckley was 16 points behind Whitehouse in a July 18 McLaughlin poll.

The McLaughlin poll was released by People’s Majority, a super PAC created after the Citizens United decision by Ken McKay, the former Rhode Island Republican Party chairman and Republican National Committee chief of staff. The reemergence of People’s Majority on Oct. 9 was first noted by OpenSecrets.org.

Whitehouse and Hinckley will debate live for the first time Tuesday at 7 p.m. on WPRI 12. McLaughlin & Associates did not release the full poll results but rather just a one-page summary. The firm was Republican Catherine Taylor’s pollster during her strong bid for secretary of state in 2010.

By Ted Nesi

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Congressman Jim Langevin both hold commanding leads over their little-known Republican challengers with five weeks to go before the election, according to an exclusive WPRI 12 poll released Monday evening.

Read the rest of this story »

• Interactive: Check out the complete WPRI 12 poll results

Coming on Tuesday: Obama vs. Romney, approval ratings for Chafee, Reed, Raimondo, Taveras.

Is Rhode Island’s U.S. Senate race about to heat up?

It will be an upset for the ages if Republican Barry Hinckley defeats Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse this November, but stranger things have happened. The GOP U.S. Senate candidates in neighboring states – Scott Brown in Massachusetts and Linda McMahon in Connecticut – are both nearly tied right now, and six years ago an offbeat Rhode Island Republican won 46.5% of the vote amid a nationwide landslide for Democrats.

With Republican hopes for a Senate takeover starting to fade, New York Times numbers guru Nate Silver on Tuesday listed Rhode Island as a “Democratic Seat Where a Republican Takeover Is Possible”:

Republicans risk death by a thousand cuts, with a gradual deterioration in their standing in several important races, and their inability to field optimal candidates in others. …

A true long shot might be Rhode Island, where the Democratic incumbent Sheldon Whitehouse’s fund-raising has been poor and where Republicans have an interesting and unorthodox candidate in the libertarian-leaning Barry Hinckley. But Rhode Island is strongly Democratic and Mr. Hinckley has received little support from the national party.

Whitehouse had a 22-point lead in the February WPRI 12 poll, but his job approval rating was only 38%. He should benefit from President Obama’s coattails and a huge financial advantage – as of Aug. 22, Whitehouse’s campaign had $2.8 million on hand while Hinckley’s had $554,124. But Rhode Island is an affordable media market with more “elastic” voters than any other state, and Hinckley’s platform is “part-Democrat, part-Republican.”

• Related: Hinckley’s firm sold; new ‘flexibility’ for his campaign spending (Aug. 7)

By Ted Nesi

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Republican U.S. Senate hopeful Barry Hinckley is a wealthier man today than he was when he kicked off his challenge to incumbent Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse.

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• Related: Barry Hinckley on his ‘part-Democrat, part-Republican’ platform (Aug. 6)

Republican U.S. Senate hopeful Barry Hinckley and his aides are adamant that Sheldon Whitehouse’s February poll lead is built on sand, making the first-term Democrat more vulnerable to defeat than he looks. They also downplay the incumbent’s huge financial advantage: as of June 30, Whitehouse had $3.5 million and Hinckley had about $500,000.

“I have to work a little harder – we have to work a little harder,” Hinckley told WPRI.com in a recent interview. “I believe in myself, I believe in my team, and I believe in my ability and my team’s ability to deliver the hard work between now and November 6th to get our message in front of as many as people necessary.”

Hinckley also offered candid comments about the challenges he faces as a Republican in Rhode Island. Here’s how he analyzed the local fundraising landscape:

I’ve got Romney and Scott Brown sucking up a lot of conservative dollars in the region – they really are. I mean, Romney’s based here, Scott Brown’s based here – the rest of us, the congressional and other Senate candidates, are a deep third to those two, and they do affect our ability to raise money because so many people have already written checks to those campaigns.

But what I’ve noticed is, if you work really hard in Rhode Island you can raise about $150,000 a quarter as the challenger. I was able to raise a little more money in February because of the successful video with my son that went viral, and because we actually were able to find pockets of Rhode Island snowbirds down in Florida this winter that had discretionary income that were willing to invest in their own former home state. Of course, that was a winter phenomenon. Brendan Doherty does the same thing. The money he makes over $150,000 is Washington support he’s getting.

And here’s Hinckley describing what makes him different:

Let’s face it: my message is part-Democrat and part-Republican. I’m socially, essentially, a Democrat – I’m pro-choice and pro-gay-rights. But fiscally, I believe that we live in a world where you have to balance the books and you’ve got to live within your means. [My children] didn’t spend the money – why should they have to pay it back? And I don’t see the Democrats with that message today. Their message is spend spend spend spend spend, and $1.6 trillion of extra spending a year has to be paid back. And as a father, I can’t stand for it anymore.

Hinckley sounds like a Dawson Hodgson Republican. Considering the elasticity of Rhode Island’s electorate, the two young political newcomers may be signaling what the future holds for the state’s eternally outnumbered opposition party.

By Ted Nesi and Tim White

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Republican U.S. Senate hopeful Barry Hinckley gave a motivational speech in 2009 encouraging business leaders to run for office because it would get them free publicity, the Target 12 Investigators have learned.

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Longtime Indiana U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar’s loss in Tuesday’s Republican primary, which has caused concern and regret among some of his colleagues, met with a more sober response from Rhode Island’s delegation.

“A fine gentleman,” U.S. Sen. Jack Reed said of Lugar in a brief comment emailed to WPRI.com.

A spokesman for his fellow Democrat and junior colleague, U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, said: “Sheldon respects Senator Lugar as a distinguished leader in the Senate, and appreciates his personal kindness and generosity.”

Barry Hinckley, Whitehouse’s Republican opponent this year, described Lugar’s loss as “proof positive that voters are looking for fresh faces in Washington, D.C.”

“While I thank Senator Lugar for his service, his primary defeat is a warning shot to career politicians of both parties that their days are numbered,” Hinckley told WPRI.com. “I have been a vocal supporter of term limits, because it is time for a new type of bipartisanship – the sort that protects the interests of voters, not the interests of the status quo in Washington.”

“Let’s hope that the rest of the country follows Indiana’s lead and fires the career politicians this November,” he added. A February WPRI 12 poll gave Whitehouse a 22-point lead over Hinckley among registered voters.

This post has been updated and revised with a comment from Senator Whitehouse.

By Ted Nesi

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Rhode Island’s most prominent political leaders are divided on whether they should allow the public to review their income tax returns and find out how much they paid the government.

Out of 12 leading politicians surveyed by WPRI.com, six said they would disclose the results of their 2011 tax filings as soon as they become available: U.S. Sen. Jack Reed; Congressman David Cicilline; Republican congressional candidate Brendan Doherty; Republican U.S. Senate candidate Barry Hinckley; Treasurer Gina Raimondo; and Secretary of State A. Ralph Mollis.

Tax rates have become a political hot potato in 2012. Democrats spent the last few weeks publicizing their proposed “Buffett rule” requiring a higher tax rate on income above $1 million, and President Obama is pressuring Republican Mitt Romney to release his returns. In the U.K., David Cameron may soon become the first British prime minister to disclose his tax bill.

U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, who led Democrats in beating the drum for the Buffett rule, requested an extension to finish his 2011 tax returns, spokesman Seth Larson said. Larson declined to say whether Whitehouse will break with his past practice and release his returns once they’re completed. In 2010, Whitehouse disclosed that his net worth was at least $3.5 million.

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U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse raised about $380,000 for his reelection campaign during the three months ended March 31, which included an assist from Vice President Biden, his campaign told WPRI.com on Friday.

The first-quarter haul leaves Whitehouse with roughly $3.26 million on hand to fund his reelection campaign this fall, the campaign said. Legal and investment firms have been his biggest sources of cash since 2007.

Barry Hinckley, Whitehouse’s little-known Republican opponent, raised slightly more than $300,000 during the first quarter, according to his campaign.

A cash-on-hand figure for Hinckley wasn’t available on Friday, but the Republican had just $175,239 as of Dec. 31, giving the incumbent Democrat a massive financial advantage in his first reelection campaign.

Whitehouse defended his prodigious fundraising on Friday during a taping of WPRI 12′s Newsmakers, saying his edge could be smaller if outside super PACs target him this fall. Whitehouse also committed to debating his opponent during the general election campaign. The interview airs Sunday at 10 a.m. on Fox Providence.

• Related: GOP can’t win on ‘Buffett rule,’ Whitehouse says ahead of vote (April 6)

The original ad was adorable. The follow-up interview didn’t go quite as well:

My theory: Hudson isn’t worried about the debt because he reads Paul Krugman when his dad isn’t looking.

• Related: Hinckley scores a hit with cute video starring his 5-year-old son (March 1)

By Ted Nesi

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Barry Hinckley faces long odds in his effort to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse this fall. He’s behind by 22 points in the WPRI 12 poll. He’s at a crushing financial disadvantage. He’s a Republican in a heavily blue state.

So creativity is key for Hinckley and John Loughlin, his campaign’s executive director. And they clearly realize that, judging by a new YouTube ad starring Hudson Hinckley, the candidate’s 5-year-old son, warning voters about the national debt and extolling his dad. It was filmed about two weeks ago and posted Monday. (Watch it below.)

Hudson’s quick tour de force has racked up 3,706 views at this writing and was an immediate hit with Fox News, which featured the clip on Greta van Sustren’s program Wednesday night and “Fox and Friends” this morning. Barry and Hudson Hinckley are scheduled to appear on Neil Cavuto’s show Thursday at 4:45 p.m., too, and The Hill also ran an item about the video Wednesday.

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By Ted Nesi and Tim White

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Rhode Islanders of every stripe are unhappy with Gov. Lincoln Chafee’s performance as he settles into his second year in office, according to an exclusive WPRI 12 poll released Monday evening.

The new survey of 500 registered voters finds just 21% of voters give a positive grade to Chafee, an independent ex-Republican, while 75% give him negative marks. That includes nearly half of voters – 48% – who rate the job Chafee is doing as “poor.”

The widespread antipathy toward Chafee is a stark contrast with how Rhode Islanders view Treasurer Gina Raimondo. The survey shows 56% of voters give Raimondo a positive review.

The poll also finds U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse has a 22-point advantage over his challenger Barry Hinckley, with the Democratic getting 50%, the Republican getting 28% and 20% of voters unsure.

Read the rest of this story »

• Interactive: Complete results from the WPRI 12 poll with cross-tabs

Coming on Tuesday: Should Providence file for bankruptcy? Should Rhode Island allow casinos?

The holidays are a special time. In Rhode Island, the season even manages to bring together the two parties.

On Wednesday morning, Rhode Island Democratic Party Chairman Ed Pacheco sent warm wishes to his email list (emphasis mine):

The holiday season is upon us. A time to give thanks for the health and well being of ourselves and our loved ones. As we gather with family and friends in gratitude for the good in our lives, let us remember our fellow Rhode Islanders who will continue to struggle through the holidays in these difficult economic times. In the words of President Kennedy, “As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.”

A lovely sentiment – so lovely that on Thursday morning, it reappeared in a number of inboxes from none other than Barry Hinckley, the Republican U.S. Senate candidate running against Sheldon Whitehouse (emphasis mine):

From my family to yours, I want to take a moment to wish you a very Happy Thanksgiving. Today, we gather with family and loved ones to celebrate the blessings of liberty and prosperity. Most importantly, we remember those who have sacrificed to secure those blessings for our great nation.

I believe that it is time for each of us to recommit ourselves to those principles that have made America the greatest nation in the world. As President John F. Kennedy said, “As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.”

Thank you to the dishwasher-avoiding tipster who pointed this out to me. Happy Thanksgiving!

Sometimes a chart is worth a thousand words:

If you’re looking for words, RIPR’s Ian Donnis has more.