PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Rhode Island’s congressional delegation slammed the Internal Revenue Service on Monday for giving special scrutiny to conservative groups, but U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse suggested the scandal reflects a broken national campaign-finance system.

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PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – President Obama, Congressman David Cicilline and other Democrats were propelled to victory last November by a surge in voting by Hispanic and black Rhode Islanders as well as a sharp drop in participation among white citizens, a WPRI.com analysis of new Census data shows.

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U.S. Sen. Jack Reed, U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Congressman David Cicilline are among the eight members of Congress co-hosting a summit on Capitol Hill to criticize a proposal in Obama’s latest budget that would trim Social Security benefits by switching to a measure of inflation known as “chained CPI.”

Rhode Island’s entire delegation slammed the policy when it emerged, and Cicilline has garnered national attention for introducing a resolution that would have Congress express formal disapproval of chained CPI. U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont are also among the summit’s hosts, giving it a decidedly New England flavor.

There were 207,122 Rhode Island residents receiving Social Security benefits in December 2011, the most recent month for which figures are available – meaning nearly 20% of state residents are on Social Security. Two-thirds of Rhode Island’s beneficiaries were 65 or older, while 35,905 were disabled and 15,704 were children. The Rhode Islanders’ combined Social Security benefits totaled $236 million that month.

The congressional event at 12:30 p.m. will be streamed live online by Strengthen Social Security, a coalition of unions and progressive groups that supports increasing benefits.

• Related: RI congressional delegation slams Obama over Social Security (April 10)

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Rhode Island’s capital city will repay the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development more than $600,000 that was improperly spent by a troubled taxpayer-backed loan program, WPRI.com has learned.

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All four Democrats – usually loyal defenders of the president – issued statements Wednesday criticizing Obama for his proposal to use a different measure of inflation, known as “chained CPI,” to calculate Social Security benefit increases, which would reduce payments over time compared with current law.

The harshest critique came from U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a leading liberal in the chamber. “The so-called ‘chained CPI’ proposal included in President Obama’s budget is nothing more than a benefit cut disguised behind technical jargon,” he declared.

Whitehouse said he thinks the way Social Security currently calculates inflation already “shortchanges” senior citizens and should be changed to increase benefits – the exact opposite of Obama’s proposal. “I made a promise to the people of Rhode Island that I would always oppose cuts to Social Security, and I’m going to keep that promise,” Whitehouse said.

U.S. Sen. Jack Reed – who is up for re-election next year – called the Obama budget “a mixed bag,” saying: “I remain adamantly opposed to cutting Social Security and using accounting changes to reduce future cost-of-living increases as a means to reduce the deficit.”

Congressman Jim Langevin said Social Security “has kept millions out of poverty without adding to the debt, and I will continue to advocate for alternatives that would put it on sound footing for generations to come.”

Congressman David Cicilline said he was “disappointed” that Obama included the Social Security change in his budget, and suggested the program could be preserved “by reforming our tax code, ending subsidies for Big Oil, and making responsible, targeted spending cuts.”

The reaction may help explain why Republican Congressman Paul Ryan, usually an implacable Obama opponent, instead offered him rare – if limited – praise for the chained CPI proposal. “I think the president should be commended for leaning into an issue that is not popular,” Ryan told National Review.

Not every progressive is as adamantly opposed to chained CPI as Rhode Island’s congressional delegation is.

“There are legitimate reasons not to adopt the chained CPI, and many people who aren’t affluent would indeed be worse off,” Robert Greenstein, president of the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, wrote Tuesday. “At the same time, fears that the chained CPI would impose severe hardship are overblown, especially if policymakers accompany it with a robust package of protections and mitigating measures for those who are very old or have low incomes.”

The four Rhode Island Democrats’ reactions to the Obama budget weren’t entire negative; they praised other proposals, including the president’s call for additional tax increases on upper-income Americans and his proposed new spending on infrastructure projects.

But Reed said Social Security wasn’t the only problem he saw in the budget, arguing that “it falls short on other specific priorities, like LIHEAP” – the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program – “and weatherization.”

• Related: RI Dems back Obama on fiscal cliff deal despite concerns (Jan. 2)

(photo: Stephen Schuler/WPRI)

More than 90 people have RSVP’d to say they’re planning to attend the event at the Firglade Avenue home of Maryellen Butke, the prominent education activist and 2012 state Senate candidate, and her partner, Jo O’Connell. Suggested contributions start at $50.

The host committee for the event includes Democratic Congressman David Cicilline, Treasurer Gina Raimondo, House Speaker Gordon Fox and Pawtucket Sen. Donna Nesselbush, a lead sponsor of the marriage bill. Also on the list are real-estate developer Buff Chace and Xay Khamsyvoravong, who was former Treasurer Frank Caprio’s campaign manager.

The Rhode Islanders United for Marriage campaign staff will provide attendees with an update on the status of marriage legislation at the State House. Advocates got a boost Sunday when Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed announced she expects a vote before the end of this month.

Butke’s 12-year-old son made national headlines when he testified in support of same-sex marriage last month. “There has been such a groundswell of support for marriage equality,” she told WPRI.com in an email. “I feel so moved by what is happening locally and nationally. This is a major sea change.”

Union leaders hosted their own fundraiser for Rhode Islanders United for Marriage on Monday.

The two Rhode Island senators joined 31 of their fellow Democrats and all 45 Republicans in voting to repeal the 2.3% excise tax on medical devices, which took effect Jan. 1. Getting rid of it would cost the federal government $29 billion from 2013 to 2022, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning Washington think-tank that opposed repealing it.

Whitehouse and another stalwart liberal, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, were among those who sided with the device industry on the repeal measure, which was introduced by Republican Orrin Hatch of Utah and has been the subject of a heavy lobbying effort.

Stephen Lane, chairman and chief venture officer of the Providence-based medical-device firm Ximedica, said at a manufacturing forum last year co-hosted by Congressmen David Cicilline and Jim Langevin that the tax was causing his industry to move production to Asia. Cicilline and Langevin voted to keep the tax, and Cicilline clashed over the question with his Republican opponent Brendan Doherty in a WPRI 12 debate last fall.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the group charged with electing House Democrats, revealed the names of the party’s 26 most vulnerable incumbents on Tuesday – and Cicilline wasn’t on the list. (Neither is Jim Langevin, unsurprisingly.)

Last November the congressman defeated Republican Brendan Doherty 53% to 41% after a campaign that cost the pair nearly $4 million.

Unlike Cicilline, the other New England Democrat who was widely seen as vulnerable last year – scandal-plagued Mass. Congressman John Tierney – is on the DCCC’s “Frontline Program” list for 2014.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – More than half of Rhode Island voters support allowing same-sex marriage in the state, while most opponents of the idea say it conflicts with their religious beliefs, according to a new poll released Thursday by Brown University.

The poll also found Gov. Lincoln Chafee’s approval rating is a dismal 26%. ”Lincoln Chafee still has not been able to move his numbers after over two years as governor,” WPRI 12 political analyst Joe Fleming said.

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“The shortfall is credit negative as the city’s financial position has weakened considerably over the past four years,” Moody’s analyst Vito Galluccio wrote in a note to investors. “However, its balanced budget for [fiscal] 2013 indicates some progress toward restoring fiscal stability.”

Galluccio cited two big drivers of the $15 million operating deficit: Taft-Carter’s mathematically flawed ruling last year that the city didn’t need to move its retirees to Medicare, and various types of tax revenue failing to meet the city’s projections. The deficit would have been even larger if the city hadn’t shorted its 2012 contribution to the Providence pension fund by $5.4 million, he said.

“The 2012 results follow several years of operating deficits that have left the city in a precarious financial position,” Galluccio said. He blamed the fiscal crisis on a $125 million reduction in state aid during former Mayor David Cicilline’s second term and “rapidly growing expenditures related to employee salaries and benefits.”

The balance in Providence’s reserve account fell into the red in the 2011-12 fiscal year, with a negative $11.4 million balance as of June 30, 2012:

On the bright side, Galluccio said “the city has made significant progress toward reducing the $110 million budget deficit that it faced at the beginning of 2012.” He highlighted union and retiree concessions, cuts in school spending, increased property taxes and increased payments from local nonprofits. He also praised the Taveras administration for making its full pension contribution, balancing the budget and avoiding borrowing in fiscal 2012-13.

“Still, the trend of annual operating deficits have dug an accumulated deficit, leaving [Providence] with little room for error in the event of future operating pressures,” Galluccio added.

In a separate analysis, Galluccio praised the successful effort by the Chafee administration and U.S. Sens. Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse to win permission for North Providence and East Providence to shore up their underfunded pension plans by using Google’s payment in a legal settlement.

The state party just took another drubbing in a big election year, managing to lose a bunch of its few General Assembly seats and striking out against a deeply tarnished incumbent congressman. Their compatriots in places like Massachusetts, California and Washington can sympathize.

The big question is, what now?

Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian, one of the most prominent Republicans in the state (and someone who actually wins elections), said during an RIPR panel interview Thursday that as 2014 approaches he’s keeping in close touch with Cranston Mayor Allan Fung and former congressional hopeful Brendan Doherty, an attempt to coordinate their efforts and come up with a viable slate of candidates.

It’s actually not that hard to imagine a competitive hypothetical Republican ticket for 2014, at least when it comes to statewide offices: Fung for governor, Avedisian for lieutenant governor, Doherty for attorney general, Catherine Taylor for secretary of state and someone else for treasurer. (Of course, so far none of them have announced they’re running for those offices.)

What about federal races? Frankly, Rhode Island’s GOP might be better off avoiding those altogether in 2014: Jack Reed is basically a lock, Jim Langevin looks safe and David Cicilline seems secure. Federal contests inevitably lead local voters to focus on the national GOP, as we saw in the Cicilline-Doherty race; that can only hurt state-level Republican candidates, who are better off if the focus stays squarely on Smith Hill.

In the meantime, it’s worth looking at the conversations Republicans are having in other deep-blue states.

Chris Vance, the former chairman of the GOP in Washington state, argued in a recent op-ed that Republicans in blue states like his own or Rhode Island should be hoping the party’s national leaders will shift their message in a way that wins over the center of the electorate.

“Republicans need to recapture the moderate, solutions-oriented message and tone that was lost when the war on terror swallowed the Bush domestic agenda,” Vance wrote. “To do otherwise is to rely on an ever shrinking base, and the cynical hope that millions of Americans won’t exercise their right to vote.”

Rhode Island’s Republicans could be forgiven for looking jealously at their friends in Massachusetts, who still have a prominent figure with statewide popularity in former U.S. Sen. Scott Brown. But Michael Graham, who hosts a WTKK-FM radio show, says it’s a mixed blessing:

Brown’s [2012] campaign slogan was “I don’t like Republicans that much, either.” And if I were trying to win an election in Massachusetts in 2012, I would do the same.

But that’s the problem: As long as you can’t win by running as a Republican, then the quality of candidates or amount of money the GOP can raise is irrelevant. In fact, “anti-Republican” GOP candidates like Brown actually make the party’s long-term brand problem worse.

When you’re winning elections by running against the Republican brand, every victory is pyrrhic.

The solution is for the GOP to stop looking for silver-bullet, one-trick candidates and start building its brand again. Spend money marketing the GOP ideas that are popular here in New England, spend money reminding people of the lousy consequences of voting Democrat (see “Hill, Beacon”), and then spend time and money finding and developing candidates who can carry that message.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (WPRI) – With the Providence issued receding and his political future looking secure, Congressman David Cicilline and his aides are clearly excited to refocus on his work in Congress.

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WASHINGTON, D.C. (WPRI) – They didn’t love it, but in the end all four Democrats in Rhode Island’s congressional delegation stood by President Obama and voted for this week’s “fiscal cliff” compromise, once again standing with their party’s leadership during a major confrontation.

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House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has appointed Cicilline to the House Budget Committee for the new Congress that convenes in January, an assignment that will put the sophomore lawmaker at the center of some of the Beltway’s biggest battles, her office announced Thursday.

The two top lawmakers on the Budget Committee are both national figures: its Republican chairman is Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who was Mitt Romney’s running mate, and its Democratic ranking member is Maryland Congressman Chris Van Hollen, an influential member of the House Democratic caucus.

“The House Budget Committee is a less prestigious ‘B’ level committee in the House, but its profile has risen dramatically under the helm of Rep. Paul Ryan,” Beltway newspaper The Hill noted last week. Cicilline attacked Ryan and his eponymous budget frequently on the campaign trail this year.

Cicilline will also continue to serve on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, where he’ll be joined by Mass. Congressman-elect Joe Kennedy III. House committees are less intimate than Senate committees: the House Budget Committee has a whopping 38 members, 16 of them Democrats this session.

Cicilline will give up his post on the low-profile House Small Business Committee to join the budget panel. Pelosi did not announce any appointments to the prestigious Appropriations, Rules or Ways and Means committees on Thursday.

​WASHINGTON, D.C. (WPRI) – Rhode Island’s congressional delegation is expressing support for President Barack Obama’s order assembling a task force charged with delivering gun safety recommendations by January.

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Cicilline spent a total of $2.4 million over the two-year cycle, while Doherty spent $1.4 million, according to final campaign finance reports filed late Thursday. The campaigns spent nearly equal amounts during the final stretch of the campaign: Cicilline spent $423,294, while Doherty spent $378,018, from Oct. 18 to Nov. 26.

Both campaigns spent the bulk of their money on television commercials and other advertising, along with staff payroll, meals and miscellaneous items, according to documents filed with the Federal Election Commission. Looked at another way, Cicilline spent $22.11 and Doherty spent $16.96 for each vote they received.

Cicilline also reported paying $700 to Bob Plain, editor of the liberal blog Rhode Island’s Future, as a field contractor. Cicilline campaign manager Eric Hyers said the payment was for advertising on the website.

Doherty, who lost to Cicilline by double-digits on Nov. 6, still had a significant amount of money in the bank when the campaign was all said and done. His campaign reported $69,354 on hand as of Nov. 26, though Doherty also continued to owe himself $50,000 from an outstanding personal loan.

Cicilline went for broke and closed the campaign season with just $2,328 in the bank as of Nov. 26. The congressman will have to hit up his donors once again to rebuild his campaign war chest ahead of the 2014 midterm elections.

Cicilline raised $2.37 million and Doherty raised $1.47 million over the two-year election cycle, including final contributions of $272,341 for Cicilline and $111,860 for Doherty during the Oct. 18 to Nov. 26 reporting period.

Cicilline’s crop of closing donors included Jean Kennedy Smith, the only surviving sibling of President John F. Kennedy, who gave him $500 on Nov. 1, and Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner, who gave Cicilline $2,600 over the entire election cycle.

All told, Cicilline has raised $4.24 million since he first became a congressional candidate in March 2010.

Doherty donors included two figures associated with Central Falls’ bankruptcy – former city receiver Robert Flanders and his chief of staff Gayle Corrigan, who gave $500 each on Nov. 5 – and two party committees: the Republican National Committee sent $5,000 and the National Republican Congressional Committee provided $3,500.

Doherty has said he won’t run for Congress again, though some have speculated he could run for governor.

​This post has been updated.

Doherty’s embrace of Simpson-Bowles reached its apex in mid-October when he traveled to New York to receive their blessing in the flesh. Doherty’s campaign trumpeted an endorsement, though in the end it was unclear that Simpson and Bowles had actually endorsed him.

Whatever the case, embracing Simpson-Bowles didn’t save Doherty from a 12-point loss – and apparently Bowles’ decision is now coming back to haunt him, too.

The former North Carolina U.S. senator was seen as a leading candidate to replace Timothy Geithner as treasury secretary for Obama’s second term, but Mother Jones’ David Korn reports Democrats haven’t forgotten that Bowles backed Cicilline’s opponent (sort of):

[Jacob] Lew, who as White House chief of staff has won much praise from colleagues, has another advantage over Bowles: better standing within his own party. … This past campaign, Bowles joined with former GOP Sen. Alan Simpson (who co-chaired their deficit reduction commission) to endorse two House Republican candidates over Democrats in tight races. … Both [New Hampshire's Charlie] Bass and Doherty lost, but congressional Democrats are not eager to forgive Bowles his apostasy. A Bowles nomination, a senior House Democratic staffer says, “would cause an uproar among congressional Democrats, and the White House is aware. He endorsed Republican candidates against some of our vulnerable people … [and this has caused] extremely bad feelings over here.”

(photo: Doherty for Congress)

I was a Cicilline supporter but even I was astonished by the size of his win, which was largely attributable to his zeal and ability to frame the issues as a choice between, in effect, good and evil, or “I’m fighting for you and he’s one of THEM.” Being a Democrat amid a Rhode Island Obama landslide was good planning!

Not to take anything away from Cicilline, but it also is evident that Doherty didn’t do himself any favors. Even though he had a year to work on it, he never mastered the art of skillfully and smoothly handling interviews and debates. He should have run more biographical ads early on to inoculate himself from Cicilline attacks that defined him. Most of all, he should have run ads that better outlined what he wanted to do in Washington and how he proposed to improve the lives of Rhode Islanders – and pounded home the idea that as a Republican in a GOP-controlled House he would be able to accomplish more than a Democrat.

I have no animosity toward Doherty and he was always nice to me. Despite Doherty’s campaign weaknesses, and despite my being a Cicilline backer, there were times when I actually thought Doherty would win or that Cicilline’s best hope for survival lay in the redistricting that made the contours of the district more favorable to him than they were last time around. I would bet you that many others in the Cicilline camp also were nervous.

If I were a functioning journalist, circulating on the front lines and to some extent behind the scenes, I likely would have had a truer understanding of what was happening. But all I had to go by were publicized polls that showed Cicilline in trouble – the last one showing him with only a 1-point lead and with heavy unfavorables and with the Cicilline campaign offering no specific figures to dispute the findings. And the national Republicans were pouring money into this Democratic district, which suggested that the GOP smelled victory. Plus The Providence Journal, which these days endorses Democrat after Democrat, endorsed Doherty, something that seemed sure to be an attention-getter.

Cicilline put himself in a hole with his 2010 comment about the “excellent” shape of Providence’s finances, an act for which he expressed contrition in 2012. But the larger moral of the story seems to be this: Campaigns, at least successful campaigns, are more about the future than the past, something Cicilline recognized and exploited brilliantly. The opponent Cicilline faced was not Perfection, it was Doherty, and Cicilline made voters appreciate that he, more than the Republican, was the guy they could count on to voice their concerns and protect their interests in Washington, and I congratulate him – indeed, I emailed him directly to congratulate him – for accomplishing such a knockout.

As for 2012 General Assembly results, I don’t know enough to comment in depth. It has been obvious for many, many years that the fewer Republicans in the legislature, the more difficulty the GOP has in recruiting good candidates, or candidates, period. Conversely, it also has long been obvious that the larger the Democratic caucuses are, the more unwieldy they become, with the ever-present prospect of factionalism within the party. Leaders don’t need me to tell them to beware of intra-party plotting.

Also, there is something to be learned from under-financed independent Mark Binder’s impressive, though unsuccessful, showing against Democratic House Speaker Gordon Fox. Leaders are by definition in high-profile positions and when they mess up, or voters think they are messing up, they can suddenly find themselves very vulnerable at the polls.

The incumbent Democrat beat Republican Brendan Doherty by more than 12 points – doubling his margin over John Loughlin in 2010 – as he managed to improve his performance in half the 19 communities of Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District.

A huge amount of the credit goes to Cicilline himself, a natural politician who ran two winning races over the last 18 months: his 2011 campaign to keep other mainstream Democrats from challenging him in the primary, and his 2012 campaign to win back voters unhappy about Providence’s finances.

But as Cicilline himself would surely admit, much of the credit also goes to President Obama and Mitt Romney, for waging a campaign that highlighted the significant differences between the two parties and reminded local Democrats and Dem-leaning independents why they dislike the GOP.

For evidence of that, check out this chart comparing Cicilline’s share of the vote across the 1st District in his two elections. In 2010 he lost Woonsocket 46-49; on Tuesday he won it 55-39. His margins improved to 78% in Central Falls and 76% in Providence. And even in places Cicilline lost, he didn’t get blown out – his loss in Cumberland, Doherty’s hometown, only worsened from 42-54 to 39-56. Take a look:

Democratic Congressman David Cicilline was taking nothing for granted on Election Day as he faces the toughest fight of his political career against Republican Brendan Doherty in Rhode Island’s 1st District.

At 1 p.m. Tuesday, Cicilline was stumping alongside Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts at the Hampden Meadows school polling place in Barrington, a city he lost by just 36 votes in 2010. “I’m determined to win it!” the Democrat declared. He’d just come from Bristol, an East Bay community he won by a comfortable 544 votes two years ago.

Cicilline said his campaign’s get-out-the-vote efforts Tuesday are focused on Democratic strongholds such as Woonsocket, Providence, East Providence, Central Falls and Newport, though he emphasized that he wants to win votes everything he can.

The congressman said he was heading next to Cumberland – Doherty’s hometown – and North Providence, where he planned to meet up with U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, whose re-election campaign team has given significant assistance to Cicilline’s. The polls close at 8 p.m.

Ted Nesi contributed to this report.

• Related: Late cash pours in for Cicilline, Doherty from companies, pols (Nov. 5)

Due to an editing error, an earlier version of this story misstated when the polls close.

Cicilline, who was at a significant financial disadvantage to Doherty as of Oct. 17, appears to be getting significantly more last-minute cash than his opponent as individuals and corporate political action committees – some far from Rhode Island – try to swing the race.

Cicilline has received contributions in recent weeks from PACs associated with a number of companies: Textron ($2,000), Citizens Bank ($1,000), Entergy ($1,000), General Dynamics ($2,000), Verizon ($3,000), Honeywell ($2,500) and CDM Smith ($2,000). Doherty got $1,000 from Home Depot.

Cicilline also got PAC money from organized labor: the Service Employees International Union ($5,000), UNITE HERE ($3,000) and the Rhode Island AFL-CIO ($1,000). Doherty received no union money.

Both men got new support from other politicians. Cicilline’s contributions came from the PACs of former Congressman Patrick Kennedy ($4,800) and New Mexico Congressman Ben Luján ($1,000), while Doherty’s came from California Congressman Darrell Issa ($2,000), Tennessee Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn ($1,000) and South Carolina congressional candidate Tom Rice ($1,000).

The two candidates also took in money from prominent Rhode Islanders.

Doherty received $1,000 each from Bryant University President Ron Machtley, who was the last Republican to hold the 1st District seat before he retired in 1994, and former U.S. Navy Secretary J. William Middendorf II, who lives in Little Compton. He also got $2,500 from Glenn Creamer, a senior managing director at Providence Equity Partners.

Cicilline received $1,000 from Alec Taylor, CEO of Foster Grant sunglasses maker FGX International; Donald Sweitzer, chairman of GTECH; Malcolm Farmer III, the prominent lawyer; and Joseph Walsh, the powerful local lobbyist. In addition, Cicilline got $1,000 from Jay Marciano, president and CEO of the London-based entertainment giant AEG Europe.

Other donations for Cicilline included $5,000 from NARAL Pro-Choice America; $4,976 from the Rhode Island Democratic State Committee; and $2,000 from the NACPAC Pro-Israel National Actional Committee.

Last week’s WPRI 12 poll showed Cicilline at 43% and Doherty at 42%, with 8% of voters still undecided.

In 2010, Cicilline won 81,269 votes out of 160,569. Two years earlier, with Barack Obama topping the ticket, Cicilline’s predecessor Patrick Kennedy won 145,254 votes – out of 211,702. And that was before redistricting made the 1st District even more friendly to Democrats.

The 1st District electorate of 2008 was 32% bigger than the 2010 electorate, and the Democratic vote total of 2008 was 79% higher. Everybody expects Cicilline to do worse than Kennedy did – but how much worse?

A Republican hasn’t won a U.S. House seat in Rhode Island in a presidential year since Ron Machtley in 1992, and he was the incumbent. An argument in Doherty’s favor is that Machtley won as a challenger in 1988 even as Rhode Island backed Michael Dukakis for president; on the other hand, that was 24 long years ago and Machtley was part of a winning ticket (John Chafee won re-election, too).

This year there’s also the David Vogel factor. Vogel, a relatively obscure independent, took 6% of the vote in this week’s WPRI 12 poll. It’s unlikely all those voters would be backing Brendan Doherty if Vogel wasn’t on the ballot, but it’s likely that at least some of them would have – perhaps enough to push Doherty into the lead. (He trailed 43% to 42%.) Thus Vogel may siphon off some of the anti-Cicilline vote that Doherty needs.

It’s true that 8% of voters are still undecided, more than enough to give Doherty a comfortable victory if they all swung to him. And the so-called “incumbent rule,” which says undecideds mostly break for the challenger, implies those voters will wind up backing Doherty. But as it turns out, the incumbent rule isn’t really borne out by the evidence from recent elections.

Cicilline doesn’t need to win big; he just needs to win. And he’ll get help on that front from the broader Democratic Party get-out-the-vote operation that also includes U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse’s re-election campaign, as well as Obama’s gravitational pull on sporadic voters. Doherty is mostly a man alone, already outperforming the top of the GOP ticket (Romney and Hinckley) by about 10 percentage points.

There’s also the final media blitz. Cicilline has a radio spot running in heavy rotation with Bill Clinton endorsing him, and as the old saying says, “Rhode Island is Clinton country.” Cicilline’s team is pleased with their final TV ads and thinks the NRCC’s brutal attack could actually backfire. They’ve got Patrick Kennedy coming to campaign this weekend, which means earned media and extra buzz at events.

None of this means Doherty is destined to lose on Tuesday; both sides know this race is tight. It’s just a reminder of what strong headwinds Doherty faces – and what an accomplishment it will be if he wins.

• Related: Photo: Top Dems rally around Cicilline at Slater Mill photo op (Nov. 1)

An earlier version of this article incorrectly said no Republican has won federal office in a presidential year since 1994; Lincoln Chafee did so in 2000.

The influential Washington-based election forecaster shifted its 1st District rating back to “toss-up” on Thursday, two days after the new WPRI 12 poll showed Congressman David Cicilline down to a one-point lead.

Cook editor David Wasserman explained his reasoning (emphasis added):

In early October, polling on both sides had begun to show Cicilline pulling away from GOP former State Police Superintendent Brendan Doherty in a stunning reversal from most numbers all year. But with less than a week to go, Cicilline’s lead seemed to have evaporated once again. Republicans credit a brutal NRCC ad hitting Cicilline’s work defending a child molester and a murderer in court more than two decades ago, and also argue President Obama won’t match the 67 percent he received here in 2008. The DCCC has spent $279,000 and the House Majority PAC chipped in with $103,000 over the last week, while the NRCC has dumped in $294,000. Cicilline’s chances of winning a second term may now depend on Independent David Vogel siphoning enough of the vote to allow the incumbent to prevail with less than 50 percent of the vote.

Cook has changed its rating on the race multiple times this cycle, first moving it from “Likely Democratic” – meaning it was basically uncompetitive – to “toss-up” back in March, then two weeks ago moving it to “Lean Democratic” based on increasing pessimism among Republicans.

This week’s WPRI 12 poll shows Cicilline at 43% and Doherty at 42%, with 8% of voters still undecided. Election analysts at the Sabato Crystal Ball, Roll Call and National Journal upgraded Cicilline’s chances of holding onto his seat after his emphatic primary victory Sept. 11.

Left to right: Jimmy Riley, secretary-general, United Food and Commercial Workers union; George Nee, president, R.I. AFL-CIO; Bob Walsh, executive director, National Education Association Rhode Island; U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse; Treasurer Gina Raimondo; Secretary of State A. Ralph Mollis; Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts; Scott Duhamel, secretary-treasurer, R.I. Building and Construction Trades Council; U.S. Sen. Jack Reed (obscured); Providence Mayor Angel Taveras; Ed Pacheco, chairman, R.I. Democratic Party.

It was quite a tableau at the historic Slater Mill in Pawtucket this afternoon as Congressman David Cicilline, nearly tied in the polls, called on the more popular members of his party to stand by his side in a show of public support for his re-election campaign.

The major speakers were Pacheco, Roberts and Reed; the party’s two young stars – Raimondo and Taveras – didn’t speak. Their message: Brendan Doherty’s campaign has gone negative to distract Rhode Islanders from his support for Republican policies, and Cicilline is more in step with local voters’ concerns.

Attorney General Peter Kilmartin arrived after the event had ended because of a meeting, while Congressman Jim Langevin was already scheduled to debate his opponent Michael Riley, aides said. Between today’s event, President Obama’s endorsement and Bill Clinton’s appeal, Cicilline’s team is banking on Rhode Islanders’ general preference for Democrats to pull him over the finish line.

(photo: Ted Nesi/WPRI)

So who are those 8%?

“With the undecided voters, there’s no one group where they’re from,” said WPRI 12 political analyst and pollster Joe Fleming after the two of us examined the data from our Oct. 24-27 survey of 300 likely voters. (The margin of error is plus or minus 5.66 points, and larger for subgroups, so caveat emptor.)

One characteristic that does stick out: 11% of women are undecided, compared with only 6% of men. “That could be good for Cicilline because he’s winning that group,” Fleming said. On the other hand, by definition these are women who haven’t been convinced by the Democrat’s pitch so far.

Other than that, the undecideds are a highly heterogeneous group.

Between 8% and 9% of voters in each of the poll’s three age groups – young voters (18 to 39), middle-aged voters (40 to 59) and older voters (60 or older) – are undecided. The group includes 8% of independents, 8% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans.

These Rhode Islanders may be more hesitant than the average citizen to make up their minds: 18% of voters who haven’t decided between Obama and Romney for president also haven’t decided who to support for Congress, compared with only 9% Obama voters and just 4% of Romney voters.

Both side will be spending the final days of the campaign trying to present a message that pushes these voters in one direction or the other – and hope that, if the undecideds break heavily in one direction, they can make up for it with a solid ground game.

• Related: Poll: Cicilline clings to 1-point lead over Doherty (Oct. 30)

Cicilline’s campaign will make a move to remedy that on Thursday. One day after the new WPRI 12 poll showed Brendan Doherty nearly closing the gap with Cicilline, the Rhode Island Democratic Party announced the party’s big guns will give Cicilline a major public show of support Thursday.

The media advisory is headlined: “RI Dems, Cicilline to discuss Democratic priorities at 1 p.m. news conference Thursday.” The idea is obvious: by standing next to Cicilline, perhaps some of these better-liked Democrats’ popularity will rub off as the incumbent finishes the political fight of his life.

The lineup of speakers who’ll join Cicilline at the Democratic unity event at Slater Mill in Pawtucket: U.S. Sen. Jack Reed, U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, Treasurer Gina Raimondo, Providence Mayor Angel Taveras, Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts, Attorney General Peter Kilmartin and Democratic Party Chairman Ed Pacheco.

Cicilline’s approval rating in the 1st District was only 36% in the new WPRI 12 poll, but last month’s survey showed some of those who’ll join him tomorrow are much more popular, notably Raimondo (60%), Taveras (59%) and Reed (54%).

The two newcomers – Raimondo and Taveras, potential 2014 rivals for governor – could be particularly helpful to Cicilline, since they’ve spent the last two years building up their bipartisan credibility as truth-tellers and good fiscal stewards. Ironically, Taveras has done so by cleaning up a budget mess in Providence that many voters now blame on his predecessor.

Separately, Cicilline’s campaign announced Wednesday that former Congressman Patrick Kennedy will return to Rhode Island to campaign for Cicilline in a few days, as well. His new hometown of Brigantine, N.J., was badly damaged by superstorm Sandy.

An earlier version of this story listed an incorrect 1st District approval rating for Mayor Taveras.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Democratic Congressman David Cicilline is clinging to a wafer-thin lead over Republican challenger Brendan Doherty with just a week to go before voters head to the polls, according to an exclusive WPRI 12 poll released Tuesday night.

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• Interactive: Check out the complete WPRI 12 poll results breakdown

Coming up at 11 p.m.: Whitehouse vs. Hinckley, Langevin vs. Riley.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee moved first, releasing a 30-second spot that echoes Cicilline’s efforts to tie Doherty to the national GOP, suggesting he’d support allowing insurers to deny coverage to individuals with preexisting conditions and noting his general praise for Paul Ryan’s budget plan.

The National Republican Congressional Committee followed hours later with a brutal 30-second spot targeting Cicilline’s former career as a lawyer. “What do a child molester, a murderer and a violent attacker all have in common?” the narrator says over photos of mugshots. “Defense attorney David Cicilline.”

With the two candidates locked in a tight race, both party committees said last week they’d jump into the race with independent advertising campaigns of their own. The NRCC is spending $280,000 and the DCCC is spending $315,000. WPRI 12 will release a new poll on the race at 6 p.m.

Update: Doherty’s campaign released its own new TV ad late Tuesday afternoon, a 30-second positive spot called “What is Right” where Doherty and his wife, Michele, makes his closing argument to voters. The ad is a stark contrast to the hit on Cicilline released earlier by Doherty’s national GOP allies.

• Related: Cicilline vs. Doherty: New WPRI 12 poll drops tonight at 6 p.m. (Oct. 30)