Republican former state representative and congressional candidate John Loughlin will host a Saturday morning radio show on WPRO beginning next weekend, WPRI.com has learned.

Loughlin was a regular fill-in host on WPRO throughout much of 2012 and assisted with the station’s election coverage late last year.

The 53-year-old, who returned from active duty in Iraq in December 2011, surprised supporters last January when he opted against a rematch versus Democratic Congressman David Cicilline, who defeated Loughlin by six percentage points in 2010.

Loughlin’s new show follows the move of former Saturday WPRO host Gene Valicenti to the station’s weekday morning slot, where he replaced Tara Granahan and Andrew Gobeil. Granahan remains with the station as assistant program director; Gobeil was let go.

WPRO program director Craig Schwalb did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Dan McGowan ( dmcgowan@wpri.com ) covers politics and the city of Providence for WPRI.com. Follow him on Twitter: @danmcgowan

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – The Federal Election Commission hit Congressman David Cicilline with a $4,530 fine last month because he failed to properly report $37,600 worth of campaign donations made in conjunction with a fundraiser that President Obama headlined in Providence in 2010.

Read the rest of this story »

Jonathan Nelson, founder of powerhouse PE firm Providence Equity Partners, is the only Rhode Islander who makes Forbes’ new list of the world’s 1,226 billionaires. Nelson’s net worth of $1.5 billion puts him at No. 854, which is the lower-middle class of the 10-figure set. Nelson is also No. 293 on Forbes’ list of the 400 richest Americans.

Politically, Nelson has supported Democrats frequently over the years, but not always. Just last month, he gave the maximum legal donation of $2,500 to Republican Brendan Doherty, and he also contributed to John Loughlin in 2010. Nelson has given to Lincoln Chafee, Angel Taveras, Jack Reed and Don Carcieri, as well. He donated to Barack Obama in 2008 but hasn’t given to any presidential candidates this year.

Nelson used to have another Rhode Islander’s company on the Forbes list: Hope Hill van Beuren, the Campbell’s Soup heiress who lives in Middletown. But van Beuren has fallen off Forbes’ radar screen – the last time she appeared was in March 2011, when her $1.1 billion fortune put her at No. 1,057 among the world’s 1,210 billionaires. (She gave $2,500 to Mitt Romney in February.)

Nelson, 55, was raised in Providence by an orthodontist, graduated from Brown in 1977, and went on to found ProvEq in 1989. Here’s how Forbes describes its recipe for success: “Buys media and telecom companies, improves operations, sells for big profit.” Among the familiar names in ProvEq’s $26 billion portfolio these days is Hulu, the streaming TV show hub.

Nelson and his wife, Judy, live in a $1.5 million home on Providence’s East Side. While Rhode Island’s richest man rarely makes headlines locally, he’s been generous to Brown – funding its new fitness center in 2004 and making a $10 million gift last year – and is on the board for Newport’s iconic jazz and folk festivals.

While Nelson is hardly hurting for cash, his wealth hasn’t entirely recovered from the financial crisis; he’s still down about $500 million from his $2 billion net worth that Forbes estimated back in October 2008, the month after Lehman Bros. collapsed. But he’s rebounded from the low of $1.35 billion he hit in September 2010.

Update: A reader on Aquidneck Island writes in and notes Oracle CEO Larry Ellison, whose $36 billion net worth makes him the sixth-richest man in the world, owns the $7.1 million Beechwood Mansion on Bellevue Avenue. That’s true, but Forbes still lists Woodside, Calif., as Ellison’s primary place of residence.

• Related: How MGM took Rhode Island’s richest man to the cleaners (March 14)

(image credit: CharlieRose.com)

By Ted Nesi

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Former State Rep. John Loughlin said Wednesday he has decided not to seek the Republican nomination in the 1st Congressional District this year, giving former State Police Col. Brendan Doherty a clear shot at taking on incumbent Congressman David Cicilline.

“I will have no part in any activity that would enable David Cicilline to remain my congressman,” Loughlin said in a statement Wednesday.

Loughlin, who lost to Cicilline by six points in 2010, returned from serving in Iraq with the U.S. Army Reserve last month and finished active duty on Tuesday. He did not endorse Doherty or mention him directly on Wednesday but said his decision is in the best interest of the Republican Party.

“While I had intended to begin my campaign for Congress upon my return from Iraq, it has become abundantly clear to me that the best way for the Rhode Island Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory is to conduct a long and divisive primary election in RI-01,” Loughlin said.

Loughlin would have entered the race at a huge financial disadvantage. As of Sept. 30, Cicilline’s campaign had $379,122 on hand, Doherty’s had $373,105, and Loughlin’s had $12,669, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Cicilline raised more than $250,000 in the fourth quarter and Doherty raised more than $150,000, their campaigns said.

But Loughlin had other advantages he could have brought to the race, including a deep loyalty among Republican activists, his experience as a candidate and his clear conservative bona fides. Some GOP loyalists have expressed skepticism about Doherty’s party credentials or his preparedness for a campaign against the battle-tested Cicilline.

Loughlin blasted Cicilline’s handling of Providence’s finances, recalling how during the 2010 campaign he’d called the city “bankrupt” and warned: “I am concerned that for political reasons your campaign for Congress is causing you to act in such a way as to conceal the budget problems facing the city of Providence, making them worse in the process.”

Loughlin thanked those Republicans who supported his nascent campaign or remained neutral while he was in Iraq, singling out House Minority Leader Brian Newberry, Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian, Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, Woonsocket Mayor Leo Fontaine, Lincoln Town Administrator Joe Almond and State Rep. Joseph Trillo.

“Their loyalty means a great deal to me and meant a great deal to my family while I was deployed,” Loughlin said.

Despite an anemic job approval rating, Cicilline has managed to retain the support of most of Rhode Island’s Democratic establishment, with the eyebrow-raising exception of his successor as mayor, Angel Taveras. He may face a challenge in the September primary from Anthony Gemma, the businessman who placed second to Cicilline in the 2010 primary as a political newcomer.

Loughlin also left the door open for a return to politics at some point in the future. “While I don’t know what the future will hold, I know that together we can turn our state around and create the kind of Rhode Island for our children that will make them proud of our service together,” he said.

More 1st Congressional District coverage on WPRI.com:

• Cicilline raises more than $250K (Jan. 4) | Doherty raises more than $150K (Jan. 3)
• Patrick Lynch unlikely to challenge Cicilline; Gemma set to run (Jan. 3)
• Middletown GOP chairman is only one backing Doherty’s bid (Oct. 4)
• Langevin limits damage as Cicilline gains less in new RI-1 map (Dec. 15)
• Doherty, Loughlin split again over debt-ceiling compromise (Aug. 2)
• Loughlin’s inside game to win the Republican nomination (July 26)

Cicilline finished the Oct. 1 to Dec. 31 period with more than $500,000 on hand, spokeswoman Nicole Kayner told WPRI.com.

Republican Brendan Doherty raised more than $150,000 and expects to have around $500,000 on hand, his campaign said Tuesday. Republican John Loughlin recently returned from Iraq and held no major fundraisers during the fourth quarter.

The Republican newcomer running against Congressman David Cicilline probably finished the year with close to $500,000 on hand, which was the campaign’s goal, Robert Coupe, Doherty’s political director, told WPRI.com on Tuesday. He cautioned that “a flurry of activity” last week may change the final numbers.

“I think we’re doing a good job fundraising for a challenger, but I don’t kid myself into thinking that the incumbent congressman is going to run out of money in this race,” Coupe said. “We’ve got a lot of work ahead of us.” He added that the $500,000 cash-on-hand target was “a lofty goal for a Republican challenger in Rhode Island.”

Cicilline spokeswoman Nicole Kayner said Tuesday the Democrat’s fourth-quarter fundraising total wasn’t available yet. John Loughlin, the Republican who ran against Cicilline in 2010, recently returned from military service in Iraq and hasn’t discussed his political future publicly.

As of Sept. 30, Cicilline’s campaign had $379,122 on hand while Doherty’s had $373,105, a difference of about $6,000, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Loughlin, who has not formally entered the race yet, had far less at $12,669.

• Related: Doherty harvests cash at brisk pace; GOP kept Cicilline in DC (Dec. 28)

By Ted Nesi

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – For the three candidates running for Congress in Rhode Island’s 1st District, the most important number come New Year’s Eve won’t be on a ball in Times Square. It will be their fourth-quarter fundraising totals.

Democratic Congressman David Cicilline and the two Republicans who want to win his seat, Brendan Doherty and John Loughlin, have just four days left to raise money and have it show up on their final fundraising reports for 2011.

Doherty, a political newcomer, has proven to be a skilled fundraiser since he jumped into the race last spring. As of Sept. 30, Cicilline’s campaign had $379,122 on hand while Doherty’s had $373,105, a difference of only about $6,000, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Loughlin, who has not formally entered the race yet, had far less – $12,669 – in his account.

Cicilline’s fundraising schedule was hampered this month by the tug-of-war between House Republicans and the Senate over whether to extend the payroll tax cut and jobless benefits, which forced him to remain in Washington for two weeks longer than expected.

The congressman’s major events during the quarter included an all-star barbecue in Smithfield - ironically, a town his allies tried to boot from his district during the redistricting fight – and a get-together in Newport attended by Patrick Kennedy, his predecessor. Cicilline’s campaign also plans to email supporters seeking donations this week, spokeswoman Nicole Kayner told WPRI.com.

Doherty continued to raise money at a brisk pace during the quarter, with his most high-profile event being an October fundraiser headlined by Bobby Farrelly, half of the moviemaking duo behind “Dumb and Dumber” and other comedies.

“We had an active fundraising effort in the fourth quarter and do expect to report a very ‘solid’ number,” Robert Coupe, Doherty’s political director, told WPRI.com in an email.

Highlights on the former state police colonel’s schedule included low-dollar events in Newport and Providence that attracted “a large number of guests,” and smaller events such as house parties in Providence, East Providence, North Providence, Woonsocket and Barrington, Coupe said.

Doherty also wooed potential donors with face-to-face meetings and personal phone calls, and the campaign has “had some success in the past few weeks with e-mail solicitations,” Coupe said. Doherty’s campaign also promoted a “30-Day Challenge” on Facebook, noting: “The end of the year marks a crucial fundraising milestone for us.”

Coupe said Doherty’s campaign will report receiving contributions from a large number of individuals, which will “demonstrate broad-based support for Brendan’s candidacy.”

Loughlin’s campaign had a quieter quarter, as the former state representative served in Iraq with the U.S. Army Reserve. The last American soldiers left the country on Dec. 18. Loughlin is now back in Rhode Island and “spending quiet time with family,” though he is officially still on active duty through Jan. 10, spokesman Mike Napolitano said.

Loughlin’s campaign did not hold any events in the fourth quarter. “We did a direct mail piece early in the quarter and do expect to report a number,” Napolitano said.

• Related: Langevin limits damage as Cicilline gains less in new RI-1 map (Dec. 15)

I asked two Rhode Islanders who want to join the House Republican caucus – Brendan Doherty and John Loughlin – whether they think the chamber should pass the two-month extension approved by the Senate over the weekend or hold out for a full-year extension.

Doherty spokesman Robert Coupe said his candidate thinks “it was irresponsible for anyone in Congress to enact a short-term fix for this crucial issue then abruptly leave for vacation.”

He continued:

Once again, Congress is playing chicken with the financial well-being of hard working American families and adding to our nation’s financial insecurity. Predictability is essential to any economic recovery and avoiding a sudden increase in payroll taxes is too important a matter to be held hostage by Congressional vacation schedules or political posturing by either party. A short term extension is just another gimmick to delay the need for real cooperation and legitimate, enduring solutions.

Both the Senate and House of Representatives should delay their vacations until they reach agreement on a long term solution to this question.

Loughlin is serving in Iraq until the end of this month, and his spokesman Mike Napolitano said, “I can’t answer that specific of a question as I am not aware of his exact stance on this issue.” He added: “The good news is John will soon be home and will be able to answer all of your questions.”

The man Doherty and Loughlin want to replace – Democratic Congressman David Cicilline – criticized House Republican last week for “playing partisan games” because their their original payroll tax-cut bill includes “controversial provisions that ensures it will not pass the Senate or be signed by the president.”

Over the weekend, a spokesman for former State Rep. John Loughlin said federal prosecutors should investigate whether Cicilline knew about the capital city’s money woes, including the alleged mismanagement of the Providence Community Action Program and the high default rate on loans granted by the Providence Economic Development Partnership.

“I don’t believe Cicilline was unaware of the high default rate regarding the PDEP, or what was occurring at ProCAP,” Loughlin spokesman Mike Napolitano said. “He’s either severely incompetent or had full knowledge of what was going on, so which is it.”

Cicilline spokeswoman Nicole Kayner on Monday fired back at Loughlin, who is serving in Iraq through the end of this year and planning to challenge Brendan Doherty for the Republican nomination in the 1st Congressional District.

“The Loughlin campaign wants to rerun the last campaign but David Cicilline is now in Congress and working to create jobs and to save Medicare from efforts by some in Mr. Loughlin’s party to privatize or virtually eliminate it,” Kayner told WPRI.com.

“As for the ProCAP matter, David has every confidence that the new acting director, Frank Shea, with the support of the Mayor will hold the agency employees accountable and does not plan on superseding the mayor’s authority or board’s responsibility with a federal investigation,” Kayner added.

Earlier this month, Cicilline described the allegations about ProCAP “serious” but declined to call for the resignation of Frank Corbishley, who served as the agency’s executive director throughout the mayoral tenures of Cicilline and his predecessor, Buddy Cianci. The ProCAP board suspended Corbishley last week.

Unlike Loughlin, Doherty has not tied Cicilline to the ProCAP scandal directly, but earlier this month the former state police colonel issued a statement saying the problems at the agency are the sort that “have destroyed public trust in Congress and in our entire government.”

“Those responsible for operating this agency are expected to be responsible stewards of these public funds and must be fully accountable,” Cicilline told WPRI.com in a statement. ProCAP’s board has “the responsibility to provide proper oversight to this organization, and the full review of the agency’s operations by them is clearly warranted,” he said.

On Tuesday, Providence Mayor Angel Taveras fired three members of the ProCAP board who were appointed by Cicilline – City Council Deputy Majority Leader Nicholas Narducci, Joseph Caffey Jr. and Raymond DeTorre Jr. – after they refused to terminate Frank Corbishley, its executive director of 20 years, over alleged management failures.

Cicilline’s statement arrived shortly after the campaigns of his two Republican opponents in next year’s congressional election weighed in on the scandal. Former State Police Col. Brendan Doherty didn’t mention Cicilline directly but said ProCAP and other scandals “have destroyed public trust in Congress and in our entire government.”

Former State Rep. John Loughlin is still overseas serving in Iraq, but his spokesman Mike Napolitano criticized the former mayor for refusing to answer reporter’s questions about ProCAP when the news broke Tuesday. Cicilline is in Washington and took part in a House floor debate on Wednesday.

“Once again Congressman Cicilline dodges questions that have anything to do with the nightmare he left behind in the city of Providence,” Napolitano told WPRI.com. ”I think this speaks directly to his character and he can not be trusted by the voters.”

Cicilline did not join Taveras and Providence City Council President Michael Solomon, who chairs ProCAP’s board, in asking Corbishley to resign. But he noted that ProCAP is a taxpayer-funded agency, with 96% of its $16.4 million in revenue coming from government grants in 2009-10, according to IRS filings.

“This agency has the responsibility to provide assistance to some of the most vulnerable members of our community, and relies upon government funding to do much of this work,” Cicilline said.

More coverage of the Providence Community Action Program scandal on WPRI.com:

• Mayor Taveras sacks Narducci, two more at ProCAP (Nov. 15)
• Emergency meeting will review ProCAP’s ‘troubling’ finances (Nov. 9)
• Nonprofit tied to Providence’s leaders probed (Oct. 24)

The finances of Democratic incumbent Congressman David Cicilline and former State Police Col. Brendan Doherty were separated by just $6,000 as of Sept. 30, with Cicilline holding the slight advantage at $379,122 to Doherty’s $373,105, according to new filings with the Federal Election Commission.

Doherty’s campaign also has a bit less debt than Cicilline’s: the Republican owes $50,000 while the Democrat owes $70,000.

Former GOP state Rep. John Loughlin, whose campaign hasn’t yet formally kicked off, had $12,669. Two of Cicilline’s potential primary challengers – Merrill Sherman and Anthony Gemma – aren’t filing reports yet.

• Related: Cicilline raises $202K in third quarter for House reelection bid (Oct. 13)

Only one Republican committee chairman in the 20 cities and towns that make up the 1st Congressional District supports Doherty over John Loughlin for the GOP U.S. House nomination next year. The outlier is Saverio De Ruggiero of Middletown.

“I just feel that Brendan is a more reasonable, levelheaded individual who can speak to the other side,” De Ruggiero, chairman of the Middletown Republican Town Committee, told WPRI.com. “I’ve met him. I’ve spent time with him. I’m deeply impressed. I just think he has the right character – he has the right experience and the right demeanor to pull this off.”

“And if I’m the only one,” De Ruggiero added, “I feel honored.”

For now at least, De Ruggiero’s is a lonely grass-roots voice for Doherty in the GOP. Of the 19 Republican chairmen in the 1st District, 16 are supporting Loughlin. They put their names on an invitation to an event last month the former state representative’s campaign billed as its “fundraiser of the year.”

Loughlin spokesman Mike Napolitano has close ties to the group as chairman of the Lincoln Republican Town Committee. ”The support for John as a candidate while he’s away in Iraq serving his country is eye-opening and groundbreaking,” Napolitano told WPRI.com. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like this before.”

Giovanni Cicione – who took over as Doherty’s campaign manager this month, and once jokingly called his party critics “crack-smoking lunatics” – said the former state police colonel has plenty of time to talk to the skeptics and win them over to his camp considering the filing deadline for the election isn’t until next June.

“There are certainly a group of people who understand John [Loughlin]‘s sacrifice for the party over the last election cycle and appreciate that,” Cicione said. “I think there’s an equal number of people – or more – who simply want to see a Republican in that seat, and I think that’s the goal of most of us.”

In addition to De Ruggiero and the 16 chairmen backing Loughlin, two other local Republican leaders – Providence’s Tara Pinsky and Cumberland’s Mark Dosdourian – are staying neutral for now in the House race.

Pinsky said the capital city’s party members are waiting for Loughlin to return from overseas to decide on an endorsement. Loughlin gave Pinsky her start in party politics, however, and she hosted a fundraiser for him with U.S. Sen. Scott Brown last year.

Cumberland is Doherty’s hometown, and Dosdourian said the former state police colonel joined the Cumberland Republican Town Committee last spring. Dosdourian admitted to being “a little surprised” so many other chairs have already made up their minds, but said his committee plans to remain neutral for now.

(The 20th community in the 1st, Loughlin’s hometown of Tiverton, doesn’t have an active GOP committee.)

Middletown’s De Ruggiero dismissed other Republicans’ criticism of Doherty’s inexperience and lack of party history as “sour grapes.” He said he was impressed by Doherty’s support from former Gov. Donald Carcieri and his huge financial advantage over Loughlin, and he thinks Doherty can win over independents who voted for Democrat David Cicilline last November.

“I think Brendan has the right character – he has the right poise, the right demeanor and the right intentions,” De Ruggiero said. “I don’t want to see another far-right candidate come in; even if he wins, what’s going to be accomplished?”

• Related: GOP RI-1 candidate Doherty raises $130K in third quarter (Sept. 30)

By Ted Nesi

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Former Rhode Island State Police Col. Brendan Doherty raised more than $130,000 for his Republican U.S. House campaign during the third quarter, WPRI.com has confirmed.

Doherty raised the money from July 1 through Sept. 30, Doherty spokesman Dante Bellini told WPRI.com on Friday afternoon. It does not include any personal funds, he said.

Doherty kicked off his campaign in May after stepping down as colonel in March. The third-quarter receipts bring the total amount of money he’s raised so far this year to roughly $385,000. Doherty also made a personal loan of $50,000 to his campaign.

Doherty started the quarter with a big financial advantage over former state Rep. John Loughlin, his opponent for the Republican 1st Congressional District nomination. Doherty’s campaign had $270,233 on hand while Loughlin’s had $302 as of June 30, according to Federal Election Commission filings.

Loughlin’s third-quarter fundraising numbers likely won’t be finalized until late next week, spokesman Mike Napolitano told WPRI.com. Loughlin is currently serving in Iraq and has yet to formally announce his campaign. Napolitano said Loughlin’s fundraising will ramp up once he returns from overseas.

Doherty and Loughlin are vying for the chance to take on Congressman David Cicilline in next November’s election. Third-quarter fundraising numbers for Cicilline, a first-term Democrat, won’t be available until next week at the earliest, spokeswoman Nicole Kayner told WPRI.com.

Bellini cautioned that the $130,000 figure is a preliminary estimate. Candidates are required to file their next fundraising reports with the Federal Election Commission by Oct. 15.

More 1st District campaign coverage on Nesi’s Notes:

• Doherty should quit RI-1 race, top RI House Republican says (Sept. 26)
• Doherty, Loughlin, Cicilline race to raise cash as quarter closes (Sept. 23)
• Doherty, Loughlin slam Obama deficit plan Cicilline welcomed (Sept. 21)
• Secretary of State: GOP can’t close Doherty-Loughlin primary (Aug. 18)
• Loughlin’s inside game to win the Republican nomination (July 26)

Zaccaria, left, with Langevin

The Republican who ran against Congressman Jim Langevin in 2008 and 2010 says House Minority Leader Brian Newberry is right to urge former State Police Col. Brendan Doherty to switch races and run in the 2nd Congressional District instead of the 1st.

“I would heartily support Brendan Doherty’s challenge of Jim Langevin in the 2nd District,” Mark Zaccaria told WPRI.com on Wednesday. “I think that what he would see is a sudden, tremendous swell of support in the Republican Party, and then we would have the opportunity to take two – count ‘em, two – seats in Congress.”

Zaccaria said he met with Doherty in April and urged him to run for the U.S. Senate against Sheldon Whitehouse rather than the U.S. House against David Cicilline, telling the former state police leader he won’t be able to defeat John Loughlin, last year’s Republican 1st District candidate, in the 2012 party primary.

“Loughlin has been a party functionary for the last 10 or 12 years, and everyone who turns out to vote in that primary – and there aren’t that many of us – know the guy,” Zaccaria said. “It’s a small and arguably incestuous group, but the fact is that you’re not going to bust into that, rightly or wrongly.”

On Monday, Doherty’s campaign blasted Newberry’s suggestion he quit the 1st District race as a “reprehensible” attempt to clear the GOP field for “last year’s loser” Loughlin. But Zaccaria argued Doherty isn’t doing what’s in the best interests of the Republican Party by forcing a primary.

“What he’s going to do is he’s going to guarantee Cicilline another term,” Zaccaria said.

Langevin defeated Zaccaria 70%-30% in 2008 and 60%-32% in 2010, when independent candidate John Matson also took 8% of the vote. Zaccaria won last year’s GOP nomination after defeating three other candidates in a primary, another reason he thinks Doherty and Loughlin shouldn’t run in the same district.

“A primary is an extremely expensive thing,” he said. “It drains the blood out of a campaign and it seriously, seriously cuts into your fundraising abilities. … Let’s not get too persnickety about the district lines or where you live.” Both Loughlin and Doherty reside in the 1st District, but legally they can run in either jurisdiction.

Zaccaria said he has closed his federal campaign account and is not interested in another “very expensive” congressional campaign, though he will allow the party to place him on the ballot if nobody else steps forward by the filing deadline next June. He said he is talking to other potential candidates about challenging Langevin.

As of June 30, Doherty’s campaign had $270,233 on hand and Loughlin’s had $302, though Loughlin’s supporters point out he is currently serving in Iraq and has not formally announced his candidacy. On the Democratic side, Cicilline’s campaign had $361,748 on hand and Langevin had $226,668.

• Related: Doherty should quit RI-1 race, top RI House Republican says (Sept. 26)

In a message posted on Facebook, the top House Republican said former State Police Col. Brendan Doherty should either end his “misguided” 1st District campaign against Congressman David Cicilline and get his donors to back Loughlin or switch gears and run against Congressman Jim Langevin in the 2nd District.

“To win an election, any election, requires both money and passion from your supporters,” Newberry wrote. “Col. Doherty cannot invent the passion that does not exist for his campaign in the 1st District. The contrast between the two fundraisers this weekend is stark in this regard.”

Doherty has “no chance” of winning next year’s Republican primary, Newberry added. “There simply is no support for him among the people who will actually vote in that primary next year,” he said, and Doherty “is helping David Cicilline by diverting money and energy from the Loughlin campaign best spent elsewhere.”

The former state police leader lives in Cumberland, which is part of the 1st District, but Newberry said that doesn’t prevent him from making a bid for Langevin’s 2nd District seat. “We are a small state and the issues are the same in both districts,” he wrote.

Doherty spokesman Dante Bellini brushed off Newberry’s comments. “We’re simply not going to dignify that with any sort of response,” Bellini told WPRI.com. “It’s just silly to respond.”

As of June 30, Doherty’s campaign had $270,233 on hand while Loughlin’s had $302. But Loughlin’s supporters point out he is currently serving in Iraq and has not formally announced his candidacy yet. Newberry said he’s confident Loughlin can raise the money needed to challenge Cicilline when he returns from overseas.

Update: Doherty’s team took a tougher line in an email blast to supporters this afternoon, describing Loughlin as “last year’s loser” and declaring Newberry’s statement as a “reprehensible” attempt to clear the field for him. The message asked Doherty’s supporters to take to Facebook and defend Doherty – politely.

“Brendan is in this race to win it and nothing is going to slow him down,” the email said. Newberry’s statement, which originally appeared on Doherty’s Facebook page, has since been removed by one of the two sides, but it’s still up on Newberry’s page.

• Related: Doherty, Loughlin, Cicilline race to raise cash as quarter closes (Sept. 23)

(photo: General Assembly)

Democratic Congressman David Cicilline and the two Republicans who want to challenge him, Brendan Doherty and John Loughlin, have one week left to boost their campaign war chests in time for the cash to show up on their next quarterly fundraising reports, a key early indicator of a campaign’s strength.

As of June 30, the trio’s cash on hand totaled $361,748 for Cicilline, $270,233 for Doherty and $302 for Loughlin, according to Federal Election Commission filings. However, Loughlin’s campaign points out he has not formally announced his candidacy yet while he finishes a tour of duty in Iraq.

Doherty, the former state police superintendent, will hold a barbecue fundraiser on Saturday under a tent at the North Scituate home of famed sculptor Armand LaMontagne and his wife, Lorraine. The co-hosts are Arthur Kaufman, owner of Arthur J. Kaufman Sales in East Providence, and his wife, Mary.

The six levels of suggested contributions for the Doherty event range from $100 up to $1,000 (the “Patriot” level) and $2,500 (the “Colonel’s Club” level). The event is being managed by GOP operative Darcie Johnston of Johnston Consulting, a fundraising firm in Burlington, Vt.

Loughlin, the former state rep who lost to Cicilline last year and is currently serving in Iraq, will hold what his campaign is billing as “the fundraising event of the year for John Loughlin” on Sunday afternoon at the Santa Maria Cultural Center in East Providence. Suggested donations are $30, $50 and $100.

Loughlin’s invitation boasts an impressive lineup of local Republicans, including lawmakers led by House Minority Leader Brian Newberry and 16 Republican city and town committee chairs from the 20-community district. But one person listed as a guest speaker – embattled state Rep. Daniel Gordon – is unlikely to attend.

Congressman Cicilline has continued raising money energetically throughout the summer, notably at a weekend-long Newport fundraiser last month whose hosts included former Congressman Patrick Kennedy and the late U.S. Sen. Claiborne Pell’s widow, Nuala; the cost to attend was $2,500 a couple. He also held a fundraising cocktail reception last Saturday at the Jamestown home of Bill and Hillary Salmons.

A bigger event on the freshman Democrat’s contribution calendar is set for Sunday, Oct. 9: “Congressman David Cicilline’s First Annual Family Barbecue.” The cost is $350 for a table, $35 for an individual and nothing for children. The who’s-who of Democratic worthies on the invitation make it a true show of force.

The afternoon event’s seven headliner hosts are Rhode Island’s top elected Democrats at the federal and state levels: U.S. Sens. Jack Reed and Sheldon Whitehouse, Congressman Jim Langevin, Attorney General Peter Kilmartin, Secretary of State Ralph Mollis, Treasurer Gina Raimondo and Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts.

The barbecue’s Host Committee includes dozens of other notables, among them Patrick Lynch, Gordon Fox, M. Teresa Paiva Weed, Dominick Ruggerio, Nicholas Mattiello, George Nee, Don Grebien, Dan McKee, Helio Melo, Ed Pacheco, Pat Crowley, Kate Brock, Brian Hull and James Diossa.

The most prominent Democrat conspicuously absent from the barbecue’s invitation is Providence Mayor Angel Taveras, Cicilline’s successor in the capital city. Two of the Providence City Council’s 15 members are on the Host Committee: Kevin Jackson and Sabina Matos.

This story has been updated and expanded.

(invitation via Doherty for Congress)

Obama speaks in Providence last October

The four Democrats who make up Rhode Island’s congressional delegation gave a cautious welcome Monday to President Obama’s deficit-reduction plan. The two Republicans who want to replace one of them weren’t so impressed.

Through their spokesmen, former State Police Col. Brendan Doherty and former state Rep. John Loughlin each criticized the president’s proposal to reduce the deficit by more than $3 trillion over 10 years with a mix of upper-income tax increases and spending cuts.

Doherty and Loughlin are vying for the Republican nomination in the 1st District and a chance to challenge Democrat David Cicilline in the November 2012 election. Cicilline said Obama’s plan “reflects many of the priorities of Rhode Islanders” though he needs to study it more closely before taking a firmer position.

“Class warfare is not the answer,” Doherty said in a statement. “What’s next? Do we say that families making $250,000 are rich and need to be taxed more? Or maybe families making $150,000? Who decides?”

Doherty said he could support cutting waste as well as “eliminating loopholes and flattening the tax code,” but “the president’s tax plan will affect more than the Warren Buffetts and the Bill Gates of this country.”

“At the heart of it, government is not the answer,” Doherty said. “A healthy, vibrant public sector, unburdened by regressive taxes and overly stringent regulatory policies, is the only answer to sustainable job growth.”

Loughlin is serving in Iraq and barred by military rules from commenting on politics, but his spokesman Mike Napolitano said Obama’s proposal to reduce the deficit “fails to state how this will be accomplished.” He also predicted the president’s proposed $450 billion jobs bill wouldn’t deliver the predicted uptick in employment.

“The government can’t spend its way out of this poor economic environment,” Napolitano said in an email. “If President Obama was really serious about creating jobs he would have attacked the issue right after he got elected instead of focusing on health care. This is a last-ditch effort by a failed administration.”

(photo: Tim White/WPRI)

By Ted Nesi

PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – State Rep. Daniel Gordon’s criminal record may be extensive, but his political record is not.

Gordon didn’t cast a ballot in a single election in Massachusetts from 2000 though 2008 after originally registering as a Republican in Taunton, according to records reviewed by WPRI.com. He later moved to Fall River, which dropped him from the voter rolls in 2008 when he did not respond to a confirmation card.

Gordon registered to vote in Portsmouth as an independent in May 2009 but did not provide a prior address when he filled out the form, Town Registrar Madeleine Pencak told WPRI.com.

Gordon eventually registered as a Republican in Portsmouth on June 14, 2010, just two weeks before he declared his candidacy to succeed John Loughlin as District 71′s representative on June 28, according to Pencak and records at the Rhode Island Secretary of State’s office.

Other Republicans struggled this week to recall how Gordon wound up being their sole candidate to compete for Loughlin’s open seat, which was one of just 10 districts out of 113 held by the GOP during the General Assembly’s last session. Loughlin stepped aside to mount a losing bid for Congress against Democrat David Cicilline.

Read the rest of this article »

Tim White contributed to this report.

• Related: What happens if state Rep. Daniel Gordon resigns from office? (Sept. 19)

“John Loughlin did not endorse Dan Gordon and John Loughlin did not recruit Dan Gordon,” spokesman Mike Napolitano told WPRI.com. “He did not know him. When Dan Gordon came out and ran, John did not know him.”

Republican Gordon was elected last November to succeed Loughlin as District 71′s representative in the General Assembly, defeating Democrat George Alzaibak by just 47 votes. (Alzaibak plans to run again.) Loughlin retired to mount a losing bid for Congress against Democrat David Cicilline and is set to make another bid next year.

Gordon was scheduled to be one of the guest speakers at a Loughlin campaign event this Sunday which his campaign is billing as “the fundraising event of the year for John Loughlin,” and the pair recently exchanged Facebook comments about it.

Asked whether he considered them friends, Napolitano said: “No. I would consider them people who know each other through the party. There was no close friendship or anything.”

Loughlin is serving overseas in Iraq and barred by military rules from giving interviews about his political life.

“Keep in mind John Loughlin was very busy running for Congress at the time Dan Gordon was running for state rep,” Napolitano said. “John worked very, very hard. He was out every day doing something. It was nonstop. He wasn’t recruiting candidates or endorsing candidates, that’s for sure.”

Separately, Gordon appeared to make his first public comments since being arrested, writing on Twitter: “If it’s on TV, (or any media) it MUST be true, right? Not so much. Must be tryouts for TMZ…FULL story soon.”

Loughlin and Gordon did not contribute money to each other’s campaigns in 2010, according to Rhode Island Board of Elections and Federal Election Commission records.

Gordon received $1,000 from the Little Compton Republican Committee; $200 each from the political action committees of the Rhode Island Statewide Coalition and the Rhode Island Tea Party; and $125 each from the Rhode Island Republican Assembly and East Bay Republicans committees, records show.

When its sister PolitiFact in Texas needed to fact check Gov. Rick Perry’s 2010 statement on Fox News that “Social Security is indeed a Ponzi scheme” – apparently the newly minted presidential candidate has been using the line for a while – it cited Cynthia Needham’s Rhode Island version to help explain its conclusion:

PolitiFact Rhode Island later rated False Republican U.S. House candidate John Loughlin’s statement that “Social Security is a Ponzi scheme.” Their analysis zeroed in on the lack of an element of deceit to how the 75-year-old Social Security program takes in money and pays it out. We’d add that Social Security is accountable to Congress and the American people while a Ponzi scheme is a crime.

We rate Perry’s statement False.

This week, national PolitiFact revisited the Texas/Rhode Island rulings on “Ponzi scheme” and stuck with False – giving the Projo a cameo role in the heated back-and-forth of the GOP presidential race.

As Scharfenberg notes, one of the main questions about Doherty’s viability is whether he could win a Republican primary in September 2012 – and who’ll be voting in it:

But the primary electorate does tend toward the ideologically driven voter Loughlin appears to be targeting. And it could skew even further right than usual next year. That’s because the conservative wing of the party, including many of Loughlin’s supporters, is pushing for closed primaries going forward — only registered Republicans would be allowed to vote, no independents.

The party’s central committee, as first reported on the Phoenix’s “Not for Nothing” blog, is slated to vote on the matter in October. Passage is by no means assured. A two-thirds majority would be required and Smiley, the Warren town chairman, says early straw polls suggest a remarkably close vote. There is some question, moreover, about whether state law would have to be changed to allow closed primaries.

There is indeed some question about that, and Secretary of State Ralph Mollis’ office, which oversees elections, thinks the Republicans can’t make the change unilaterally.

“Under our reading of state law, it appears that unaffiliated voters can vote in a party primary even if that political party revises its own by-laws in order to bar them,” Mollis spokesman Chris Barnett told WPRI.com in an e-mail. He emphasized this is the office’s interpretation.

Barnett pointed to three state laws that lead the secretary of state’s office to that conclusion:

RI General Law 17-9.1-23 allows unaffiliated voters to affiliate with a political party on the day of a primary. When unaffiliated voters sign the poll book at their polling place on primary day, they are literally registering as a member of the party in whose primary they wish to vote. Once they affiliate with a particular political party, an election official hands them the ballot for that party’s primary. When they cast that ballot, they are casting it as a registered member of that party.

RI General Law 17-15-24 defines who is ineligible and eligible to vote in a party primary.

Lastly, under RI General Law 17-12-2.1, the state Board of Elections reviews all revisions to party by-laws. So, if a political party does vote to further restrict who can vote in its primaries, the state Board of Elections will be the setting for the next step in the process.

Just two weeks after the two took different stands on House Republicans’ “Cut, Cap and Balance” bill – a Loughlin spokesman said he’d vote for it, while Doherty expressed doubts – the pair are finding themselves on different sides of another big issue: the debt-ceiling deal that passed the House 269-161 last night.

Doherty said he would have voted in favor of the bill to cut at least $2.4 trillion in federal spending over the next decade in exchange for an increase in the federal borrowing limit.

“In light of the attendant circumstances and potential ramifications, I would have supported the House bill,” Doherty said in a statement. “However, while no one would argue that this bill is going to cure all that ails our bloated federal government, it is a step in the right direction. I believe it’s in the best interest of the country at this time.”

Loughlin is serving in Iraq, but spokesman Mike Napolitano said his candidate would likely have opposed the legislation, partly out of concern that it could lead to the expiration of the Bush tax cuts in 2013 during a time of high unemployment and sluggish economic growth.

“This bill reduces the deficit … however, it fails to reduce the country’s long-term budget problems,” Napolitano said in an e-mail. “In addition, it contains large cuts to our nation’s defense budget. I believe John would vote against this.”

The Democrat whom Doherty and Loughlin are vying to challenge, Congressman David Cicilline, voted in favor of the bill, but said in a statement, “To be clear, there’s a lot about this bill I don’t like.” Congressman Jim Langevin also voted for it with reservations. “This is not the debt reduction bill that I wanted to vote for,” he said.

Two liberal Democrats across the border in Massachusetts took a different stance from Rhode Island’s House members: Congressmen Jim McGovern and Barney Frank both voted against the deal.

But Loughlin spokesman Mike Napolitano likes to point out that John Robitaille came in second in last year’s gubernatorial race despite being vastly outspent by Lincoln Chafee and Frank Caprio. And he is working to ensure Loughlin’s has non-financial advantages as he courts Rhode Island’s GOP faithful.

One sign of that came Monday, when the Loughlin campaign announced a Sept. 25 fundraiser that will be “sponsored by a vast majority of the Republican city and town chairs in Congressional District 1″ – 16 by my count – and will feature House Minority Leader Brian Newberry as its keynote speaker. Doherty’s spokesman told WRNI his candidate “hasn’t even met most of these people.”

Then there was last week’s Providence Phoenix report that the Republicans will vote in October on whether to close next year’s primary to independents. That could lead to a small electorate choosing the Republican nominee, and give a boost to the more conservative Loughlin.

There’s also policy preferences. House Republicans’ austere “Cut, Cap and Balance” plan – which got a shoutout from Speaker Boehner in his nationally televised speech last night – won immediate praise from the Loughlin campaign but a cool reception from Doherty.

The former state police colonel’s aides are well aware of these challenges. It will be interesting to see how they navigate them.

Update: “It is disappointing that these Republican chairs appear to be throwing their support behind Mr. Loughlin even before they have had an opportunity to meet with Colonel Doherty,” spokesman Dante Bellini tells the Phoenix.

A spokesman for former state Rep. John Loughlin, who is serving in Iraq, said Loughlin supports “Cut, Cap and Balance,” which passed the House on a party-line vote Tuesday. The bill would cut federal spending by $6 trillion and amend the Constitution to require balanced federal budgets.

“If John Loughlin were here he would support ‘Cut, Cap and Balance,’ ” spokesman Mike Napolitano told WPRI.com in an e-mail. “Spending caps need to be created and there must be a mechanism in place to enforce them.”

“John Loughlin is a fiscal conservative and has been well aware that the United States can’t continue to tax and spend its way to prosperity,” Napolitano said. “We need to stop spending money we don’t have as we are creating a nightmare for our future, as well as the futures of our children and grandchildren.”

Loughlin’s opponent, former State Police Col. Brendan Doherty, isn’t so sure about the strict spending limits “Cut, Cap and Balance” would put in place.

“In theory we need to balance the budget from year to year, but there also needs to be a reasonable mechanism to allow flexibility in the event of a national crisis or serious economic downturn,” Doherty said in a statement sent to WPRI.com.

“The truth is that I am not in Congress right now and don’t have access to all the information that is being considered and debated,” Doherty continued. “What I do know is that we have to work in a bipartisan manner to move this country forward.”

The “Cut, Cap and Balance” plan is unlikely to become law with Democrats controlling the U.S. Senate and President Obama threatening to veto it if the legislation reaches his desk. Nine of the House’s 240 Republicans voted against the bill, as did most Democrats, including Rhode Island’s Cicilline and Jim Langevin.

Related | Loughlin camp not fazed by Doherty’s six-figure quarter (July 14)

“For a first-time candidate who only started raising money in early April, he did a tremendous job,” Cook Political Report’s Duffy told me, pointing out that Doherty’s $300,000 haul is almost 40% of the total money John Loughlin had during the last cycle.

“He’s got to keep it up – there’s no resting on your laurels here – but he proved himself to be a contender,” she said. ”What this will do now is open doors elsewhere.”

David Cicilline’s $360,000 total was “a good number,” and the incumbent Democrat is unlikely to ever lack for funds partly because of the support he receives from the gay community, Duffy said. “But he has a serious, financially viable challenger,” she said.

As for Loughlin, Duffy said his $3,000 total raises further questions about how much his campaign will be hampered by his absence from the country while serving in Iraq. Doherty may also pick up key endorsements in the coming months that could help help him win the Republican nomination, she said.

WPRI 12 political analyst Fleming echoed Duffy, calling the second quarter “an excellent start for Brendan Doherty” that will increase the pressure on Cicilline and Loughlin. “It sends a message,” he said.

“The question is going to be what Brendan Doherty does in the next quarter,” he said. “Can he keep the momentum up? He’s raised a lot, but can he keep that going as time goes on? That’s going to be one of the keys.”

On the Democratic side, Fleming described the quarter as “a good start” for Cicilline. “I think he’ll have the money, there’s no question,” he said. A big question there is whether other Democrats will jump into the race – they could wait as long as the end of the year and still be viable, he said.

Overall, the second quarter money chase “shows that CD1 is going to be a very expensive campaign in 2012,” Fleming said. “I think it’s going to be over $1 million for each person.”

[I'm back from vacation, but here's one more guest post.]

By Eric Hyers

Cara Cromwell, John Loughlin’s former campaign manager, last week posted a rather spot-on assessment here of why a Republican winning Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District will be a nearly impossible feat. I’d like to join in agreement.

2010 was a brutal year for Democrats across the country. Democrats suffered record congressional losses, undoing the electoral gains of the 2006 and 2008 cycles. And next door in Massachusetts, the political world was astounded by Scott Brown’s Senate victory in a reliably blue state, replacing the liberal lion Ted Kennedy.

And yet, even after a bruising four-way primary and vicious attacks by a third-party group in the general election, David Cicilline was able to win by a comfortable margin of victory. He went to Washington as one of only nine new Democratic members out of a freshman class of 94.

He will win again in 2012.

Congressman Cicilline has been in office for just six months. During that time, he has had his Make It In America Block Grant included in the national Democrats’ jobs plan. He has led 44 of his colleagues, including two Republicans, in sending a letter to President Obama calling for an accelerated time table for bringing our troops home from Afghanistan. Recently, he sponsored an amendment that would end the spending of $475 billion to build bridges, roads and schools in Afghanistan in order to spend that money on our own people. And just this week, he joined Senator Whitehouse in sponsoring a bill to help revitalize our manufacturing base by ending tax breaks for American companies that ship our jobs overseas.

His district office so far has handled over 500 constituency service cases, the type of work that doesn’t usually make headlines but represents the real-world impact a representative can have on people’s lives. He holds frequent meetings with constituents, from community dinners and town halls to regular “In the District with David” events in order to ensure he remains responsive to the needs of the 1st District. In short, Congressman Cicilline is in tune with the needs of the district and fighting every day to improve its residents’ lives.

In stark contrast, Washington Republicans are currently refusing to budge on eliminating tax breaks on corporate jets – that’s right, corporate jets – but passed a budget to end Medicare for future retirees. They are fighting hard to maintain subsides for Big Oil but insist that cuts in Social Security benefits must be on the table. They are demanding that tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires be extended but are unwilling to close tax loopholes for companies that send American jobs overseas. It’s outrageous, and Rhode Island voters aren’t going to be in any hurry to add to their ranks.

RI-1 is perhaps the textbook definition of a Democratic district. And by “Democratic district,” I don’t just mean that there are more Democrats than Republicans – I mean that the people of this district largely believe in the ideals of the Democratic Party. As polling, research and past election results prove, voters here believe in the social safety-net provided by Social Security and Medicare, believe the government should play a role in protecting the environment and women’s rights, and believe that government should support the middle class, not provide additional tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires.

The Republican Party’s message – especially these days, with its focus on far-right social issues and protecting the super-rich – finds little support here. While Rhode Island will, on occasion, elect a Republican governor, I do not believe voters in the 1st District will send a representative to Washington who will vote in line with Speaker Boehner, Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan. Federal and state-level elections cannot be viewed through the same lens.

As of now, the Republican nominee will either be John Loughlin or Brendan Doherty. Loughlin, in the best Republican year in decades, couldn’t break 45% of the vote. He was a hard-working candidate who ran a feisty campaign, but his politics were just too extreme for Rhode Island voters. He called Social Security a Ponzi scheme. He doubts manmade global warming. He thinks Paul Ryan should be “applauded” for crafting a budget that ends Medicare. And he is likely the Republicans’ best chance.

So far Brendan Doherty is a relatively unknown candidate, although he did raise eyebrows by switching his abortion stance from pro-choice to anti-choice within weeks of announcing his bid; it will be interesting to see if this extends to supporting the national Republicans’ efforts to defund Planned Parenthood. He has called the Republican budget that ends Medicare a prudent approach. And he has alienated many Latinos, an important 1st District voting constituency, with his extreme stances on immigration.

These are incredibly tough economic times and I believe voters are going to demand a representative who they can count on to vote for their interests. I could go through an endless set of scenarios to show that a Republican can’t win in RI-1 because of electoral math. I could reiterate what Cara wrote; that there simply aren’t enough votes in the conservative-leaning areas of the district to overcome the voter registration advantage Democrats enjoy in the highly populated areas of Providence, Pawtucket and East Providence. I’m a numbers nerd and I’d be happy to do that all day.

But the truth is that David Cicilline will win in 2012 because he shares the values of the people of this district, understands their problems, and works incredibly hard to make their lives better.

Eric Hyers is executive director of the Connecticut Democratic Party and served as David Cicilline’s campaign manager in 2010.

“They’re impressive numbers, especially for Doherty,” Loughlin spokesman Mike Napolitano told WPRI.com, “but given that my candidate is in Iraq serving his country, we’ll have our shot at it when he returns.”

Napolitano said Loughlin’s campaign “did no real fundraising during the quarter” other than a going-away event for the Army Reservist. More is being done this quarter, including a direct-mail solicitation and possibly an event in September, he said.

Loughlin has not formally declared his candidacy yet, though he has made clear he plans to run, setting the state for a Loughlin-Doherty Republican primary in September 2012. In May, an exclusive WPRI 12 poll of 1st District voters showed Cicilline losing to either Loughlin or Doherty by double-digits.

There’s no sugarcoating Loughlin’s current financial disadvantage. The three campaigns’ cash-on-hand numbers are stark: Cicilline has $361,748 and Doherty has $260,000; Loughlin has $203. But Loughlin starts with a non-monetary advantage over Doherty – clear-cut Republican bona fides – which could help him win over the party base.

Echoing Cicilline’s allies, Napolitano said the real test for Doherty will be how much money he can raise after family and friends have been tapped. “Generally the first quarter [of a campaign] is going to be a candidate’s best quarter, so we expected this to be a larger number,” he said.

Napolitano pointed out that last year’s Republican gubernatorial candidate, John Robitaille, managed to finish a close second despite raising far less money than Lincoln Chafee or Frank Caprio, thanks to his performance in the final stretch of the race.

“Money is important, but it’s not everything,” Napolitano said. “We strongly believe in our candidate, and we feel that once he gets up and debates Brendan Doherty, the people are going to see the strong points of John Loughlin versus Brendan Doherty.”

Loughlin is living in a small modular unit in Iraq and working from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. six days a week, according to Napolitano, who said they exchange emails a few times a week. Loughlin “gets Sunday mornings to do his laundry,” he said. “It’s nonstop for him.” Napolitano also said Loughlin came under rocket fire twice on the Fourth of July.

By Cara Cromwell

Are you waiting for the punch line?

When Ted called me about writing a guest post for his blog and he suggested this topic, my response was: “If I knew, I wouldn’t be writing this, Ted.” (Cue nervous laughter.)

Jokes aside, after managing John Loughlin’s campaign during the exciting and competitive 2010 cycle – and having almost recovered from the experience – I have a few observations to share on how a Republican candidate can mount a competitive campaign in RI-1. I’m not so addled as to think I have the keys to the kingdom, but here are my scraps of wisdom (strong word) for any current or future candidates that are thinking about embarking on the quest for the grail that is RI-1.

While there are currently two GOP candidates who plan to run for the seat in 2012, the first thing to note is that we are almost a year away from the filing deadline and it is far too early to assume that the field is in place. With Congressman Cicilline appearing weak, additional candidates on both sides of the aisle may emerge and others may drop out. A quick check of Anthony Gemma’s Facebook page seems to indicate that he’s still in the hunt. This race is fluid.

So whether you’re undeclared, in a foreign land or “in it to win it,” the vast stretch of time between now and when the race heats up next spring should be about getting your campaign up and running and perfecting your “why I should be your next member of Congress” stump speech. Know the issues, but articulate a larger vision. There’s no point in spending a lot of time sparring with a sitting member of Congress – we have talk radio for that. You need to define yourself and your priorities and not look around at the rest of the field right now.

Most importantly, you need to focus on raising money. And right after that, you need to raise money. Oh, and then you need to raise money. And when you’re not raising money, you should make sure that you’re familiar with the key issues before Congress.* Then go raise more money.

How much? The answer is easy – $1 million is a good goal for a competitive seat. It’s the equation that’s hard to solve.

Rhode Island has one media market, and it’s on the lower end of expensive for television airtime. We’re a cheap date compared to most other seats but because the district has been so reliably Democratic, “D.C. money” is less likely to find its way here. D.C. money includes not only contributions from the National Republican Campaign Committee, but the many political action committees that tend to give to GOP candidates.

Their logic is sound: Why spend the money in RI-1 – which, with the exception of Ron Machtley’s six years, has been a safe Democratic seat since the 1930s – when there are 82 freshman House Republicans to protect in 2012? The other complicating factor is that D.C. money doesn’t appear in a hotly contested GOP primary at all, so whatever you plan to spend in the primary, plan to do it with money you have or money you have raised locally. And while Rhode Island Republicans are generous, there just aren’t very many of them, and this is where the real challenge lies.

It’s a tough pill to swallow, but an election is a numbers game, not a popularity contest. During the course of a campaign, you might meet 1,000 people a day who say they’re going to vote for you (most will live in RI-2 or nearby Connecticut). But unless you can crack the code on getting the so-called unaffiliated voters to vote for a Republican, you’re right where you started – not in Congress.

In 2010, RI-1 was rated a D +13 district, meaning that statistically the Democrat should beat the Republican candidate by a margin of 13 points. Although the margin was about half that in 2010, the simple truth is that whoever the GOP candidate is in 2012, he or she is going to have to find many more votes than the 10,000 or so by which Loughlin lost. With President Obama up in 2012, voter turnout will be higher than 2012 – and those voters aren’t voting GOP.

Where will those votes come from? In 2010, Cicilline’s margin of 10,000 included about 7,500 from Providence. Without a significant (read: expensive) turnout effort, the 2012 candidate will face the same numbers challenge that Loughlin did: despite winning in the outlying communities, huge losses in the urban areas put him under.

I’m not a “mathemagician” so I don’t have a solution to this one other than to say that making significant inroads in the cities will be crucial unless you can get 5,000 or 6,000 people to move from Providence to Portsmouth and vote GOP. There are also the unknowns – whether voters will blame Cicilline for Providence’s fiscal demise and whether a bloody Democratic primary will leave those voters divided and unhappy enough to stay home in November. If Obama is cruising to re-election, his followers may be complacent, creating an opportunity of “hope and change” for the GOP candidates in Rhode Island.

* And by the way, the rare exception to “don’t look at the rest of the field” is that you should know what’s happening on the Hill and use your mental file cabinet (and well as hard copy) to understand the issues and know where Congressman Cicilline stands. You can bet that he’ll say he is “protecting seniors and working families.” Maybe you should too? Feel free to anticipate what he will say are his accomplishments and work on your responses.

But only do that in your head, while you’re raising money.

Cara Cromwell is a political consultant who lives in Bristol.

Two weeks ago, I noted the split between Congressmen David Cicilline and Jim Langevin over whether to back President Obama’s intervention in Libya. Cicilline, siding against, was part of a broad coalition of dissenters extending from liberal Democrats to Tea Party Republicans.

Cicilline has been consistently ahead of centrist opinion on this one, calling for a faster withdrawal from Afghanistan during his campaign last year and beating the drum for it since taking office. “I believe we need a larger drawdown and an accelerated timetable,” he said Wednesday night in response to Obama’s speech.

That makes it all the more interesting to read this passage from Ed Fitzpatrick’s Projo column about Cicilline challenger Brendan Doherty’s first big fundraiser:

Doherty said his campaign theme will be “America First” ….

In emphasizing that theme, he said, “We need to reassess the billions we are spending on other countries — other countries you’d have to find a map to find out where they are.” As a caveat, he said, “I understand our special relationship with Israel” and “I understand what is going on in the Arab Spring and the tenets of soft power and smart power and diplomacy.” But, he said, “Some of these countries, folks, you may not have ever heard of them, and we are spending billions of dollars there. What about spending that money here in Rhode Island, here in America?”

That sentence could just as easily have been uttered by Cicilline. “We’re spending money building a country while our own country has urgent needs in terms of infrastructure” and other priorities, the congressman told me in April. “We’re cutting the COPS program here while we’re training police officers in Afghanistan. This is a moment we have to make this country our priority.”

If Doherty sticks to that line on foreign policy, it could deprive Cicilline of an issue he used to draw contrasts in 2010. Before that, though, Doherty may need to wage a primary campaign against John Loughlin, who’s serving in Iraq as we speak. What will GOP primary voters think of Doherty’s message on the wars? What will Loughlin’s message be?

Doherty’s proclaimed slogan – “America First” – is an interesting choice, too.

For voters who know their history, America First brings to mind the powerful isolationist group that fought to keep the United States out of World War II. Its best-known backer was the famous pilot Charles Lindbergh; others who supported it included Gerald Ford and Sargent Shriver. More recently, the paleoconservative commentator Pat Buchanan has praised the group and the message.

(photo: Spirit of St. Louis 2 Project)

The 2,000-word article by Rothenberg’s Nathan Gonzales runs through the fallout from Cicilline’s response to Providence’s financial crisis. Unsurprisingly, one of his key pieces of evidence is our bombshell WPRI 12 poll from last month, which he says “makes a compelling case that Democrat David Cicilline is one of the most vulnerable incumbents of Congress.”

While Gonzales whiffs on a few local details – Mayor Angel Taveras has been anything but “highly critical” of Cicilline, nobody expects Buddy Cianci to run and I think it’s incorrect to say “people aren’t upset about the city’s financial troubles” – his subscriber-only analysis sounded solid to me.

Here’s what I saw that’s new for those who’ve been following the story:

• Cicilline didn’t get it at first. “According to neutral observers and Democratic strategists, Cicilline was
slow to understand the depth of his political problem,” Gonzales writes. That seemed clear to me, as well. And as I’ve mentioned repeatedly, Cicilline’s efforts to change the subject will be difficult to achieve as the city’s financial crisis continues to unfold.

• An outsider has the best shot in a primary. Gonzales reports local sources think “Cicilline is likely to get the Democratic establishment to line up behind him,” which I’ve heard as well; that means someone like Anthony Gemma, who can self-fund his campaign, would have an advantage over others who’d want to tap the same donor base as Cicilline.

• Cicilline still has solid party support. “At this stage, Cicilline looks like the favorite to be renominated,” Gonzales writes, though that could change if his numbers don’t improve and Democrats get worried he could lose them the seat.

• Doherty has the edge over Loughlin. Sources told Gonzales the Republicans’ 2010 candidate will “have an extremely uphill battle” trying to run while serving in Iraq. “Doherty is a big question mark but Republicans believe in his potential,” he writes. OnMessage Inc., the firm Governor Carcieri used, is doing Doherty’s polling and media. GOP insiders want to “avoid a bitter, expensive” primary.

• And Republicans are watching. The NRCC is “paying more attention to the race” than it did in 2010, making robocalls in the district to plant their flag. But “Republicans understand they will need more than a
couple of breaks to win,” Gonzales writes.

As I’ve said over and over, it’s way too early to write Cicilline’s political obituary. The congressman is a fighter who says he’s never had an easy election race – and he’s not going to give up his new job easily.

(h/t: Projo)