By Dan McGowan
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Yet another Rhode Island mayor is seeking a promotion.
Democratic Cumberland Mayor Daniel McKee on Wednesday formally launched his campaign for lieutenant governor, becoming the third municipal leader to announce he will run for statewide office next year.
Providence Mayor Angel Taveras isn’t backing down in the battle of the pollsters.
Hours after Brown University released a survey showing Taveras trailing Treasurer Gina Raimondo in a possible Democratic primary for governor, Taveras campaign aide Peter Baptista said his team stands by its Garin-Hart-Yang Research survey findings from last month giving Taveras a sizable advantage.
“We stand by the poll we released,” Baptista told WPRI.com. “The methodology is solid, and Mayor Taveras is focused on delivering for working people in Rhode Island.”
The Taveras campaign only released a memo summarizing its internal poll instead of the full results, but pollster Frederick Yang said his primary sample was 60% Democrats and 40% independents. By comparison, Brown’s primary sample was made up of only 40% Democrats and 46% independents.
Baptisa hinted that Taveras is getting closer to making a formal announcement about his candidacy for governor. “He will announce his decision in weeks, not months,” Baptista said.
Raimondo spokeswoman Joy Fox didn’t join the fray. “The treasurer’s office will not comment on polls,” Fox told WPRI.com. “We will continue to concentrate on our work in Treasury, and deliver results for Rhode Islanders.”
• Related: Q&A: Orr explains how Brown University’s poll was conducted (Oct. 9)
Brown University released a new opinion survey on Wednesday morning showing Treasurer Gina Raimondo leading Providence Mayor Angel Taveras in the Democratic primary for governor. The findings are strikingly different from those of the poll Taveras commissioned and released last month that put the mayor 19 points ahead.
Marion Orr is director of Brown’s Taubman Center for Public Policy and Frederick Lippitt Professor of Public Policy & Political Science. He talked with WPRI.com on Wednesday about how the new poll was conducted. The interview has been lightly edited and annotated for length and clarity.
What are the headlines to you out of today’s new Brown poll?
The headline out of this poll is that Gina Raimondo is leading pretty good among likely voters in the Democratic primary. This is a fairly good lead, I think, within the margin of error.
Now, the lead narrows a bit – that is, her lead narrows a bit but she still leads – when you focus only on those people who tell us that they typically are Democrats. But she still leads. But the lead narrows.
What I’m suggesting here is that when you add in, say, independents who could perhaps vote in a Democratic primary, her lead increases. So I think that’s one thing.
In the battle over the government shutdown, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi continues to receive support from all but one of the four Southern New England Democrats who serve in the U.S. House.
Congressmen David Cicilline, Jim Langevin and Joe Kennedy III all stood by Pelosi on Thursday and voted against measures sponsored by the Republican leadership that would have restored funding for veterans and the National Guard. Democrats are refusing to agree to those and other GOP proposals that would only partly end the government shutdown that began Tuesday.
Only 157 of 435 congressmen – all Democrats – voted against the funding for veterans, a roll-call vote tailor-made for attack ads in next year’s campaign. The local exception was Democratic Congressman Bill Keating, who represents Cape Cod and is occasionally mentioned as a possible Republican target in 2014.
Keating broke with Cicilline, Langevin and Kennedy on Thursday to back both military funding measures, after also breaking with the Democrats Wednesday and voting to restore funds for the National Institutes of Health. But he joined the other Democrats in opposing a GOP bill to provide funding to reopen the national parks.
Each of the measures is expected to be dead on arrival in the Democratic-controlled U.S. Senate.
The bills to restore funding for popular federal functions were designed by GOP leaders to make their opponents feel the heat, and the fact that Cicilline, Langevin and Kennedy voted no anyway suggests they are among the most loyal – and politically safe – Democrats in the country.
Democrats hold an advantage in all four congressmen’s districts: President Obama won 66% of the vote in Cicilline’s district, 60% in Langevin’s, 57% in Kennedy’s and 56% in Keating’s last year.
By Tim White
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – All four lawmakers in Rhode Island’s congressional delegation will forgo their pay if federal workers lose their wages as a result of the government shutdown, WPRI.com has confirmed.
A new poll commissioned and released by Providence Mayor Angel Taveras shows the first-term Democrat would start with a lead over Treasurer Gina Raimondo, his main rival for the party’s 2014 gubernatorial nomination, in a primary race.
The survey by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group shows Taveras at 49% and Raimondo at 30% among likely Democratic primary voters, with 21% undecided, according to a polling memo released to WPRI.com by Peter Baptista, the mayor’s campaign operative.
“Our survey findings show that Providence Mayor Angel Taveras is extremely well-regarded by Rhode Island Democrats, and that he would enter a potential primary election for governor with a healthy lead over [General] Treasurer Gina Raimondo,” pollster Frederick Yang wrote in the memo.
The Taveras campaign did not release the full results of the poll.
The Washington Post’s Steve Pearlstein recently published a long piece on the troubled Irish economy. Yet some of the complaints Pearlstein passed along about Ireland’s political and business elite echoes a lot of the criticisms of Rhode Island’s ruling class – particularly this section (emphasis added):
Reading through the postings from abroad at “Emigration Nation,” it’s clear the expats aren’t merely discouraged by the lack of jobs back home, but frustrated by a political and economic establishment they view as insular, unresponsive and incapable of carrying out fundamental reform of the country’s outdated institutions. …
Time and again it was described to me as a system characterized by mediocrity, nepotism, secrecy and a lack of genuine competition. It is a system in which the governing philosophy of “social partnership” has morphed into nothing more than an excuse for buying off special interests. And it is a system in which the top priority of those who run it is preserving their powers, perks and prerogatives.
In a new book, “The Fall of the Celtic Tiger,” economists Donal Donovan and Antoin Murphy … argue that the root cause of the crisis was “the absence of sufficient questioning and internal debate” within a political, economic and media establishment too easily prone to “wearing of the green jersey.” That comfortable consensus and cheerleading culture stifled serious analysis or criticism of what was really going on during the boom years. A stubborn “lack of transparency in the political decision making process,” they write, undermined the political legitimacy of the government’s response to the crisis.
Some of this is pretty standard “politicians are the worst!” stuff that you hear regardless of whether you’re talking about elites in Dublin, Providence, Washington, Boston or Tokyo. But the trenchant critique of Irish elites reported by Pearlstein sounds uncomfortably similar to what we see in Providence.
Agree? Disagree? And if you do agree, how do you change it?
• Related: Analysis: Chafee scrambles the 2014 campaign – once again (Sept. 4)
Angel Taveras has always liked Lincoln Chafee. But he’s probably never liked him more than he does today.
Chafee’s surprise announcement that he won’t seek re-election – made outside the DMV, no less – sets up the 2014 Democratic primary for governor as a clear choice between two formidable candidates: Treasurer Gina Raimondo and Providence Mayor Angel Taveras, each a first-termer with a high approval rating.
That’s good news for Taveras. Raimondo isn’t going to win over the state’s politically powerful public-sector unions, and she’s going to face at least some resistance from those liberal Democrats who are skeptical of her ties to the financial sector. Taveras, on the other hand, is viewed more warmly by labor for negotiating his pension cuts – an oft-heard talking point these days.
The big challenge for Taveras was going to be competing with Chafee for the same slice of the electorate – Latinos, liberals and labor. Chafee was unlikely to win the primary, but it’s conceivable he could have taken enough votes from Taveras to hand victory to Raimondo – an ironic possibility considering Chafee has a much warmer relationship with the mayor than he does with the treasurer.
Richard Baker, the U.S. Senate’s historian emeritus, relates a classic story about a local legend:
When Senator Theodore Green of Rhode Island became chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in 1957, he was 90 years old. Intelligent, hard-working and well-liked, Green was no longer up to piloting this important cold war-era committee. Senate Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson lacked the authority to remove committee chairs, but he found his opening when a Providence newspaper in 1959 demanded that Green retire. Johnson told the beleaguered senator that he shouldn’t put up with such abuse. Green agreed and decided to step down. But then the leader overplayed his hand and the elderly senator decided he should stay. L.B.J. finally engineered a face-saving way for Green to yield with dignity intact.
• Related: New Year’s Day marks 78 years since RI ‘Bloodless Revolution’ (Jan. 1)
Friend’s-of-Nesi’s-Notes Chris “The Fix” Cillizza and Nathan Gonzales of Rothenberg Political Report have come up with, respectively, 10 immutable rules of politics and 10 things losing candidates say. Both posts are well worth a read, but with Rhode Island heading into a big political year, I thought I’d summarize them:
1. Money is most things … but not everything.
2. No swing voter cares about campaign finance reform.
3. Candidates matter.
4. No politician goes to Iowa by accident. NONE.
5. Saying “no” to a race doesn’t mean you aren’t running.
6. Endorsements (almost) never matter.
7. Negative ads work.
8. All successful candidates use polling.
9. Running for random downballot office ≠ running for major statewide office.
10. Geography matters. A lot.
… and the things losing candidates say …
11. “I’m running a grass-roots campaign.”
12. “The only poll that matters is the poll on Election Day.”
13. “I’m the next [insert big-name politician here].”
14. “I’m not going to run any negative ads.”
15. “I’m not going to accept PAC money.”
16. “My son is running my campaign.”
17. “Money doesn’t win elections, ideas do.”
18. “I’m going to win this race the same way I did when I got elected to the State House.”
19. “People know me.”
20. “My district is different.”
One big takeaway here: don’t listen to anyone who says Gina Raimondo’s money isn’t a big deal. It is. With $2 million in the bank, she can bury Angel Taveras and Lincoln Chafee in negative ads long before the fall campaign draws near – just like Barack Obama did to Mitt Romney. She can also respond to attacks.
People often point out that Frank Caprio spent $2.7 million but came in third in 2010, which is true – if Raimondo runs a terrible campaign, she can spend a lot of money and lose, too. But Chafee spent nearly as much as Caprio ($2.5 million) and won – while a little more money might have won it for John Robitaille. Again, Raimondo’s money does not mean she will win – it just gives her an important advantage in the race.
Or, as former Bruce Sundlun adviser David Preston put it on Twitter recently: “Never heard of ‘too much money’ cited as a campaign problem.”
By Ted Nesi
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Roman Catholic Bishop of Providence Thomas Tobin revealed Tuesday night that he recently became a registered Republican, while emphasizing that the church and its mission shouldn’t be viewed through a narrowly partisan lens.
“The a-ha moment for me was the 2012 Democratic National Convention. It was just awful,” Tobin told the Rhody Young Republicans. “I just said I can’t be associated structurally with that group, in terms of abortion and NARAL and Planned Parenthood and [the] same-sex marriage agenda and cultural destruction I saw going on – I just couldn’t do it anymore.”
By Ted Nesi
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – The latest quarterly finance reports from Rhode Island’s state and local politicians were due to the R.I. Board of Elections by midnight last night, and the results offer a glimpse at who’s got an early advantage heading into next year’s campaign.
• Related: DreamWorks CEO, Facebook executive among Raimondo donors (July 31)
Treasurer Gina Raimondo’s campaign war chest now tops $2 million, about three times more than her second-closest rival in the 2014 governor’s race, as the first-term Democrat continues to be a fundraising juggernaut.
Raimondo raised $399,420 from April 1 to June 30, finishing the second quarter with $2.06 million on hand, her campaign disclosed Wednesday in a filing with the R.I. Board of Elections. She had $1.7 million on March 31.
As a comparison, former Treasurer Frank Caprio, who was a prodigious fundraiser in his own right ahead of his 2010 gubernatorial bid, had $1.4 million on hand at the same point in the last election cycle.
Providence Mayor Angel Taveras, Raimondo’s fellow Democrat and another potential candidate for governor next year, raised $157,705 during the second quarter to finish with $692,590 on hand, his campaign disclosed in its Board of Elections filing. Taveras had $560,779 on March 31.
Barack Obama won landslides worthy of Saddam Hussein in some Rhode Island legislative districts last year.
New data released Monday by David Nir, the liberal blog Daily Kos’s political director, shows the configuration of Rhode Island’s 113 General Assembly districts has left Republicans with almost nowhere they can consider safe territory; Democrats even control one of the two districts where Mitt Romney got a majority last fall.
The top Rhode Island House district for Obama was Rep. Joe Almeida’s District 12, which takes in the South Side and Washington Park in Providence, where the president received an astonishing 96% of the vote against just 3.5% – yes, less than 4% – for Romney.
Among Rhode Island Senate districts, Obama’s best showing was in Sen. Harold Metts’ District 6, which cuts down through the center of Providence, where Romney won 93% of the vote to Romney’s 5%.
Obama won at least 80% of the vote in 11 of the 75 Rhode Island House districts; he won at least 70% in nearly one in three. By contrast, Romney won in just two of the 75 House districts, and in his top Senate district – Nick Kettle’s District 21 in Coventry, Foster, Scituate and West Greenwich – he only managed 48%.
Surveying the diminished clout of Massachusetts’ congressional delegation, Stonehill College’s Peter Ubertaccio writes for The Boston Globe:
The Bay State now ranks last in Senate seniority, and no member of the Massachusetts congressional delegation holds a committee chair or leadership position in either the Senate or the House. For the first time since early 1919, no member of our House delegation has served with a speaker from Massachusetts. …
Senator Edward Kennedy’s death in 2009 ruptured an important historical axis upon which the Commonwealth so depended for its influence. …
Why does this matter? Seniority, leadership, and clout bring two key benefits: prioritizing federal dollars and articulating political values. …
There is no easy solution to our dilemma. It requires the continued cultivation of political leaders who see their futures within the institutions they now call home.
This is a real challenge for Massachusetts. When I asked U.S. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse in January what makes an effective senator, his first response was: “Seniority, which you can’t do much about – it is what it is – but as time goes by you need to be ramping it up the match your seniority.”
Reed’s campaign raised $704,411 during the three months ended June 30 and spent $189,677, according to figures his office provided at WPRI.com’s request. Reed, who is seeking a fourth six-year term, finished the second quarter with $2.57 million on hand.
The new fundraising numbers were disclosed the same day Nate Silver, The New York Times’ political numbers guru, released his updated forecast for U.S. Senate races in 2014 – and again gave Reed eye-popping 99% odds of winning re-election next year, unchanged from February.
Other numbers in the updated forecast may be a cause for concern in Reed’s office, however.
Seth Magaziner, 29, filed an official notice July 3 with the R.I. Board of Elections declaring his intention to run for treasurer as a Democrat, which will allow him to raise money for a campaign.
Magaziner said he hasn’t made up his mind yet about whether to run.
“I’m still exploring a run for General Treasurer, and filing for candidacy will allow me some additional flexibility as I continue the decision making process,” he told WPRI.com in an email.
By Ted Nesi
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian is considering a run for Rhode Island lieutenant governor next year.
“That’s certainly a possibility, of running for lieutenant governor,” Avedisian, a Republican, said Friday during a taping of WPRI 12′s Newsmakers. He hinted, however, that other GOP candidates may come forward to contest the nomination.
By Lou Mazzucchelli
Ask people what leaps into their minds when you say “Rhode Island” and you get lots of different answers, depending on the geographic distance between the responder and our state. As a recently returned native, my answer is this: “Nora Desmond from ‘Sunset Boulevard.’”
Rhode Island is still attractive given her age, but almost completely delusional.
My conclusion stems from looking around the State when I returned four years ago after a 12-year absence. For instance, I fully expected to see Quonset thriving as a deep-water port. I hoped that the modest technology roots I had planted with Cadre Technologies might have sprouted into a small but functional technology business ecosystem. I was optimistic that downtown Providence would have attracted the broad array of small service businesses needed to thrive together with a growing residential population.
Instead, I found people still squabbling over using a deep-water port for its highest and best use, a mostly dysfunctional startup ecosystem, and a downtown area that was in the process of completely hollowing itself out. What were people thinking?
By Ted Nesi
PROVIDENCE, R.I. (WPRI) – Bishop of Providence Thomas Tobin says he’s “profoundly disappointed” that Rhode Island is likely to legalize same-sex marriage on Thursday, and he’s warning Catholics to think hard before going to the weddings of local gays and lesbians.
By Ted Nesi
ATTLEBORO, Mass. (WPRI) – Former Boston Celtics player Jason Collins became the first openly gay active athlete in a major U.S. sport on Monday, and he’s crediting Massachusetts Congressman Joe Kennedy III with helping him make the announcement.
• Related: Enthusiastic Joe Kennedy III says it’s ‘surreal’ to join Congress (Jan. 7)